US troops killed: has Trump lost control of Iran war? – The Latest

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0:41Iran still has the capability to hurt the U.S. They were lucky. The casualties could have been far worse. We hit them very hard again tonight, and we did that in honor of the great patriots. He couldn't accept American casualties. The real problem for him is to get to somewhere, some agreement that he can claim is a diplomatic triumph. From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hoff.

1:12We're now in the 10th consecutive day of renewed strikes between the US and Iran as tensions re-escalate in the region. Julian Borgia, you're our senior international correspondent. I think most significant for Trump is the deaths of military personnel over the weekend in the Middle East, in addition to the nearly 100 that have been injured in the region in the last two weeks. What are the implications for Trump on that, do you think? Well, they're very serious because this is already a very unpopular war in the US, public opinion, mostly for economic reasons up to now, price of petrol. But if you add into that American servicemen and women are beginning to get killed and injured, then that is a whole other level.

2:01And that's something, if there's one consistent thing about Trump over the years, is he's been very reluctant to put American soldiers in harm's way. He has no problem with bombing other people and likes to see war in that way, just bombing the enemy and keeping American soldiers away from it. And so this is something he is trying to avoid. And yet it has happened now. And so the stakes for him are growing and the jeopardy for him, especially politically, with the elections coming up, that is getting worse. Yeah, because we have these very crucial November midterms coming up, don't we? As you say, this is a war that is enormously unpopular and increasingly so in the United States, not just because of the impact on consumers at the petrol pump and elsewhere.

2:53But when you start to then have US military personnel coming home in coffins, the visuals of that are likely to increase that unpopularity. The stakes are enormous for him. He has responded for now by saying that Iran will pay many times over and has carried out a series of US strikes. Do you think those will continue? Well, there are two things really. One is the sort of the revenge and that, you know, he couldn't accept American casualties and then said, OK, well, that's going to call it off. That's not in his DNA and that doesn't work politically. The longer question is, will he keep on up these attacks in the hope that it will shake something loose in the Iranian negotiating position and he can get what he wants on the negotiating table?

3:46Up to now, that really hasn't worked and there's no sign that it's going to begin to work. But he's, apart from that, really out of ideas. And of course, he has the military at his shoulder who always have a plan of how things can be done and more things to bomb. And so for the time being, as there isn't a diplomatic solution, that's all he has. And so without any real strategy, that is going to carry on until something else comes up, something shakes loose in the negotiations. Yeah, which is still ongoing. And we'll talk about those in more detail. But in terms of the options available to him, I mean, as ever, it is impossible to work out what's going on in Trump's head.

4:28But will he be looking to achieve another kind of fragile truce? And I think crucial to that is the fact that Israel have said that they have no interest in getting involved in this latest round of fighting. So that leaves them quite isolated on that front, doesn't it? I think it's more a problem for him if Israel gets involved. It's a problem in terms of perceptions, political perceptions at home, which was originally that it was Israel that had led the U.S. into this war. And it makes very little military difference, Israeli involvement. So that probably is not a huge factor. But the real problem for him is to get to somewhere, some agreement that he can claim is a diplomatic triumph, as he tried to do with the June Memorandum of Understanding.

5:21Yeah, a very fragile truce that was much trumpeted at the time, but has fallen apart very quickly. In terms of what Iran are up to, they are carrying out their own strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, but also in the wider Middle East region, right? Yes, they've aimed their missiles and drones at US bases and concentrations of US forces in the region. So Jordan, in particular, there's a Jordanian air base out in the eastern desert called Moawak Salty, which they've managed to hit. And this is where the three U.S. casualties were and many of the injuries, but also in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait. But what it shows is that despite all the claims we've heard from the Trump administration over the weeks and months, Iran still has the capability to hurt the U.S.

6:19and to pinpoint and to hit these bases. So it shows that they still have missiles and drones and that they are relatively accurate. The US has stressed that most of these 100 casualties were mild concussion, most are back on duty. But that shows they were lucky that a missile drone hit in a concentration of US forces and the casualties could have been far worse. Yeah, quite a lot of spin going on from the last few days. Another significant development is that the Iran-backed Houthis have also threatened to blockade the Red Sea, presumably inspired by what Iran has been doing in the Strait of Hormuz and the huge ripple effect that's had on the global economy and how empowering that's been for Iran.

7:13How significant would you say that intervention or that threat is? Potentially very, very significant. The Houthis up to now have been sort of the dog that didn't bark because they are a major proxy force, partner force to Iran who have this ability to close the other main waterway out of the Middle East, which is the Bab al-Manda Strait. if they are able to do that, in a way they just have to hit a few ships to put off shipping companies from using that strait, then the two big choke points in terms of global trade, in terms of oil and gas coming out of the Middle East, those will have been closed.

8:02And then you can see oil prices potentially going back where they were at the height of the war,$120. So that is their capability now, whether they will follow through on that threat and whether they are able to hit ships and put off the shipping companies and the insurance companies. Well, we'll see over the next few days. But if they do have that capability. That could be hugely damaging to an already very damaged global economy. So you mentioned that talks are still ongoing, that memorandum of understanding still stands, it seems, despite what's going on in the Middle East. Talks are continuing, but are they progressing?

8:49Because it feels like yet again, we've taken a bit of a step backwards. I suppose we don't know if they're progressing until something comes of it. I mean, they're definitely, new ideas seem to be being explored. The problem with the memorandum of understanding is, well, it was negotiated by two real estate developers who were sort of freelancing for the US, Steve Wyckoff and Jared Kushner. And it was full of holes. I mean, no diplomat would have gone away and thought that they had an agreement. For example, it was largely about the Strait of Hamos. There was no attached map of where ships and what route ships could take through the Strait of Hamus.

9:29So it was left very up in the air. The question of who has control was very much left in the air. And so it was full of ambiguities. And so its collapse was really inevitable because both sides came away thinking different things about it with their own interpretations. So what we understand is that the center of talks right now, the behind the scenes negotiations, involve Iran and Oman, who are on both sides of the strait, to come to an agreement on how the flow of ships can be jointly regulated. And if that can be done, then potentially there is the prospect of going back to the negotiating table and redoing that memorandum understanding in a way that works this time.

10:20Doesn't sound like easy work. Julian, thank you so much for your time. Thanks. Thanks for having me. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Julian Borgia, The Guardian's senior international correspondent. You can keep up with all his reporting over at theguardian.com, as well as live coverage of the crisis in the Middle East. And I really recommend heading over to our sister podcast, Stateside with Kyan Carter. Carter Sherman is speaking to the classicist Mary Beard about Christopher Nolan's adaptation of The Odyssey and why it's left her a bit disappointed. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest.

10:54Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning. The Latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Angus Neal. The senior producer was Ron Ramgobin. The executive producer was Zoe Hitch.

11:17This is The Guardian.