Why does Trump want Kurdish fighters to join the war in Iran? – The Latest

0:00Nosheen Iqbal:This is The Guardian.

0:09Devik:This looks like it's a new front. There are increasing suggestions that the Americans and Israelis want to work with Kurdish forces on the ground in Iran. It's difficult to know whether Trump and his advisers really have a sense of what they're dealing with in terms of the complexities of Iran and Iranian society. It feels like there's a very real risk this could collapse into something much worse for Iran, the Iranian people and the world at large.

0:36Nosheen Iqbal:As the US and Israel look to armed militia groups in Iran, could it spark civil war? From The Guardian's Today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Noshin Iqbal.

0:51Nosheen Iqbal:Joining me today is The Guardian's Deputy Head of International News, Devika Batt. Devika, thank you so much for joining us. Thanks for having me. Now, from everything we're reading, this war is about to take on a dramatic new phase. There's reports that the US and Israel are about to arm fund Kurdish militia groups to launch an attack on Iran. Could you explain, first of all, Devika, just how do the Kurds figure in this conflict? Yeah, sure.

1:19Devik:So yes, you're right. This looks like it's a new front. And indeed, what we've seen happen today is actually Iranian forces attack Kurdish territory in Iraq. Preemptively. Well, so this feeds, I think, into what we think might be happening. So Tehran is sort of saying it's hit Iraqi-based Kurdish groups. So huge waves of airstrikes, hitting dozens of military positions, the frontier posts. And yes, this comes as we think there are increasing suggestions that the Americans and Israelis want to work with Kurdish forces on the ground in Iran.

1:59Nosheen Iqbal:And this isn't the first time that the US has called on Kurdish Peshmergas to be their boots on the ground, so to speak. Devika, what has that relationship looked like in the past? And why would the Kurds want to take up this so-called opportunity? What's in it for them?

2:13Devik:So in Iran, it's a Persian majority, but there are lots of other significant minority groups, including the Kurds. There are Kurdish groups in other parts of that sort of neck of the woods, too, regionally. So there's a sort of informal Kurdistan area, but the Kurds have never had their own state. But yes, in Iran, they constitute about 10 % of the population and have long been repressed by the ruling regime. So it has to be said so far, we think on the American and Israeli side, this is definitely an objective. The extent to which the Kurdish groups want to do this is unclear. There have been various sort of statements about that today.

2:47Devik:There's been some denials about the extent of their involvement. But it's clearly an objective from the Americans and the Israelis, as far as we can tell. But yes, you're right. There's been a long history of cooperation between the US and Kurdish groups. We did see that during the second Gulf War in Iraq. But most recently, we saw that in the fighting against Islamic states in Iraq and Syria, to the extent that the Kurds ended up playing a huge role in that conflict, really kind of supporting the Americans, really helping in that effort, to the extent that by the time we got to the defeat of ISIS, the Syrian Democratic Forces, which was a Kurdish force, was controlling huge swathes of the territory.

3:29Nosheen Iqbal:I guess they're not the only militant group that have also been approached, right? I mean, we're reading reports about Balochis and other armoured forces, like small ethnic minorities are being recruited potentially by the US and Israel. And I mean, one has to wonder, is the aim here for there to be a full blown out civil war? How does one explain that?

3:48Devik:Yeah, so I think that's a really interesting question that we have to now see play out. it's going to be critical to what happens inside Iran. As you say, Iran is this very kind of complex society made up, you know, of a huge number of different groups. And it's unclear whether the US understands the nature of that complexity. You know, of course, the shadow of the Iraq war sort of looms large in one's memory here. At the start of the war, it's unclear how much the sort of Western occupation of Iraq was even thinking about sort of Sunni-Shia tensions. and we saw how that ended up. And here, it's difficult to know whether Trump and his advisors really have a sense of what they're dealing with in terms of the complexities of Iran and Iranian society.

4:33Devik:So it feels like there's a very real risk this could collapse into something much worse for both Iran, the Iranian people and the world at large.

4:41Nosheen Iqbal:And all the while, of course, we talk about the big geopolitical questions, but it is the Iranian civilians who are absolutely suffering in this. And, you know, largely their stories have been underreported. Obviously, there's difficulties in getting information out of Tehran. But we know that the US and Israel, they're striking hospitals, they're striking schools. We've seen that horrific incident in southern Iran, where that girl school, the Minab, 165 children dead. Devika, how on earth does the US and Israel explain that when the line is that this war is about targeting military, military targets.

5:17Nosheen Iqbal:It's about that and not about the Iranian people and targeting them.

5:21Devik:So I think what we've seen this time, and it's really interesting because I think that is right typically in this sort of situation, the US does say it's a very kind of calculated, targeted military operation. In this occasion, actually, I don't think we've necessarily seen that. We've seen Hegseth, the defence secretary, make these statements that have met with a lot of international criticism because it seems to be sort of saying straight up that this is not a war in which they feel bound by the usual rules of engagement. Indeed, he used the phrase stupid rules of engagement.

5:54Nosheen Iqbal:America, regardless of what so-called international institutions say, is unleashing the most lethal and precise air power campaign in history, all on our terms, with maximum authorities. No stupid rules of engagement, no nation-building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise, No politically correct wars. We fight to win and we don't waste time or lives. As the president warned, an effort of this scope will include casualties.

6:24Devik:And so it feels like the fact that the gloves are off in this war is being fully broadcast by the U.S. up front with the result that, of course, you get these horrendous civilian casualties. And it feels like the US is sort of making it very clear that this is a war it wants to win, regardless of the cost, which is a really kind of terrifying proposition for everyone.

6:47Nosheen Iqbal:And then in Tehran, of course, there is a succession process to replace Ayatollah Khamenei. And the front runner at the moment seems to be his son, Mujtabar. Devika, what can you tell me about him and what would his leadership do with the regime? Like how would it impact what that regime then does?

7:03Devik:So what we know about him is so far he hasn't been hugely public facing, but he is believed to be hugely influential behind the scenes. He is a hardliner. He is believed to have played a key role in the sort of suppression of protesters in 2009, where we saw some really, really big protests. And he's believed to have played a big part in sort of putting those down. So he is very much a hardliner. And what that means both inside Iran and in terms of the international or American response feels uncertain. So inside Iran, there've obviously been these huge protests in the run up to the war. And having another hardliner, who is indeed the son of the previous hardliner, feels like that wouldn't be something that would be satisfactory to the people who were out protesting.

7:50Devik:And similarly in the US, I mean, Trump has said this week that the worst possible outcome would be, in a typically sort of Trumpian phrase, someone who was worse than the last guy. And again, it's hard to see how this appointment would make the US happy.

8:08Nosheen Iqbal:But presumably he's also a sitting target, right?

8:11Devik:Absolutely. And actually, Israel has made that clear. So Israel has said that he is a sitting target now. This war is far from over. And Israel and the US has made that clear. And it's made clear it is going after the very top of the Iranian leadership. So yes, it does feel like there's a bit of a target on his back now.

8:29Nosheen Iqbal:Well, Devika, thank you for your time. Thanks so much for having me. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Devika Batt, our Deputy Head of International News. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus, we'll be back with you as usual tomorrow morning. And we'll be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Nashi Nikbal. The producer was Nicola Alexandru. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin. And the lead producer was Zoe Hitch.

8:59Nosheen Iqbal:This is The Guardian.