Will Trump go to war with Iran? - The Latest

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:13He's been saying for about a week that he's going to intervene if the protesters are shot at by the government. We're looking at it very seriously, the military is looking at it, and we're looking at some very strong options. I don't think they'd foreseen scale and duration and breadth of these protests. So they're not ready yet. The death toll in Iran has been soaring amid a brutal crackdown from the regime. Donald Trump is now weighing up whether to intervene. From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hove. I'm joined by Patrick Wintour, the Guardians' diplomatic editor.

0:53It has been a horrifying weekend in Iran. And the death toll now in excess of 500. And it's thought that over 10 ,000 people have been arrested, according to human rights organizations. The regime is now saying that the protests are largely brought under control. And certainly we know that over the weekend, the numbers of people turning out have diminished, right? What are you hearing? Well, I think the sheer scale of violence on Saturday and Sunday was such that I don't think it's likely that the protests will continue. the kind of intensity that they were before. And one of the problems has been the counter-revolution, which is going on today, has been televised by Iran, but the revolution itself was never televised because they wanted to suppress everything as much as possible.

1:41And we've been working off very kind of grainy videos, some of which it's very difficult to authenticate. And this is people dialing in through Starlink, isn't it, in order to send? Yes. I mean, there's two or three satellite channels, including Iran International, which is a natural BBC Persian, which people are sending these kind of videos to enter the Guardian, always discerning the true scale of a demonstration, even when it's a kind of panned picture, it's quite hard. Yeah. And certainly, to your point, Iranian state TV, almost exclusively broadcasting footage of pro-regime demonstrations happening in the last 12 hours or so.

2:15Before we went into the weekend, Donald Trump was threatening to intervene were protesters to be killed. I mean, clearly, protesters tragically have been killed in very large numbers in cities across Iran over the weekend. On Sunday, we understand that Trump is considering, to quote, very strong military action. But what do we know about what is under consideration in the White House today? Well, first of all, he's been saying for about a week that he's going to intervene if the protesters are shot at by the government. And at first he said, well, hold on, the people who have died so far, they're probably victims of a stampede within the crowd.

2:53So he's trying to sort of deflect that. He is now, I think, going to have a full scale meeting in the White House to review his options. And I guess the two options are ones which are really about helping the protesters through communications and through ensuring Starlink is working more effectively. And he said he'd speak to Elon Musk about that. And then the second are kind of more military options. But are those going to be performative? Are they really going to change the weather? That's the thing he's got to evaluate. So what are the options when it comes to those military interventions? Because there's some discussion about the US's readiness for such an operation, right, given how it is busy elsewhere than Iran.

3:37Yes. I mean, he runs a very tight ship, very small number of people involved in all the key decisions. So there is a kind of bandwidth issue. And I don't think they'd foreseen scale and duration and breadth of these protests. So they're not ready yet. What can they do? They can try a decapitation strategy, which is what Israel and America to an extent attempted in June during this 12-day conflict over the nuclear sites. They can try and hit some of the police stations, which they think are most responsible for the attacks. They could even go after the president, the elected president, Masvid Peshach Khan, which they did in the past.

4:20But they've then got to make a decision about do they have a vision of how a transition could happen inside Iran. Yeah. And you've just been in Iran and Tehran specifically. right I mean talk about some of the complexities of that type of strike well I mean I mean I was taken you know in a kind of propagandistic way I understand but it still was true because it was there in front of my eyes to a building where a nuclear scientist had lived and he was taken out I think almost like the first or second day of the June attacks and the point that you could see was obviously they'd struck the building with huge accuracy but to the side to the left and to the right and behind and over the road, other buildings had been damaged.

5:05And I think five or six other people have been killed. And so, you know, Tehran is an incredibly dense capital. It's not going to be easy to isolate the time of targets you want. Yeah. And so what are you hearing about how Tehran and other cities are readying themselves for the event of a possible intervention? Well, there was obviously a lot of reflection within the government about why Israel and the The US had such intelligence about where IRDC and naval leaders lived and where they were. And I think the person they're trying to protect most is the Supreme Leader. And what would they do to protect him?

5:45There's some talk that they keep him moving. And he's come out in public very rarely now. So that is probably the number one person they need to protect. He's extremely old. He's 86. He's 86 and not well. Yeah. And I'm probably a large part of the government would like to see the back of him, because I think he has been a real roadblock to any kind of reform. Yeah. And today in focus, we're going to be looking at kind of what this could mean in the longer term tomorrow. But for now, I mean, as Trump weighs up whether to engage with these military strikes, the regime is saying that diplomatic channels remain very much open.

6:21There isn't a US diplomatic presence within Iran, but I understand it's going through the Swiss embassy, right, in terms of… Well, it's not just the Swiss embassy. They have Oman, whose foreign minister was in Tehran, is very important in the kind of exchanges and to degree Saudi Arabia and to a lesser extent the United Arab Emirates. So they're all kind of conduits that are available. I mean, the last time I was in Tehran in November, the foreign minister really got into a position of a rote position, which is, you know, we're prepared to negotiate as long as it's not required that we capitulate or it's one-sided.

6:58it, but it was very kind of bland and actually it ended up being a kind of status quo position. So I think now what must be interesting is whether the regime for its own sense of survival is willing to change some of its negotiating positions. And the two key things are, very briefly, one is whether you're going to continue to insist as Iran that you should be allowed to enrich uranium domestically. And secondly, whether you're going to hand over the highly enriched uranium that they still have and whether they'd hand it over to a third party. Those are the two issues they've got to move on or else I think the negotiations are pointless.

7:35We've spoken about that there is some diplomatic channels open, but are there influential people around Trump in the White House who are warning of the potential risks of this? And what are those risks? What will be going into Trump's ear? Well, the risks primarily are, is this going to be counterproductive because there was an outburst of nationalism and patriotism after the June 12-day attacks from Israel and the US and I think that was genuine. So that's one danger. The second is, is the opposition prepared for power? They are in the diaspora very divided. There's a lot of people who support the former Shah's son, but there are others who think he's a divisive figure and they don't want to swap a turban for a crown, i.e.

8:19they switch from this kind of clerical regime to monarchy. And then I think the third thing is what intervention will actually really help the protesters and whether instead there is more mileage in actually saying to the Iranian regime, you just cannot go on like this having these convulsions every three to four years, each of them becoming worse. And ultimately, you're going to have to change the way in which you conduct yourself. I mean, the president himself is aware that, and has said at the outset of these protests, that they were all legitimate. And what people were complaining about was absolutely valid.

8:59And the economy was a mess. The currency was a mess. And inflation was at 40 to 45%. Living standards were being absolutely shattered. So he knows that there's a legitimate cause there. But what's he going to do about it is the issue. Well, it's certainly going to be a very big few days to watch. Thank you, Patrick. My pleasure.

9:43was Zoe Hitch.

9:48This is The Guardian.