In short
Live post-result analysis of the Makerfield by-election, focusing on why Andy Burnham won overwhelmingly, what it means for Keir Starmer, and whether Reform UK has peaked. Guests debate Reform’s strategy, the “anti-Starmer” personal vote, and the prospects for future right/left coalitions.
Guest backgrounds
Dan Hodges is a journalist and broadcaster who reported from the constituency for about a month. Julia Hartley-Brewer is a broadcaster and journalist.
Key claims
Burnham’s win is driven by a strong personal “Burnham effect” (many voters said they voted for Burnham specifically) and by a referendum-style vote against Keir Starmer. Reform’s vote is described as declining nationally and as mishandled locally, including over-focus on Restore voters and aggressive messaging. Reform is said to be constrained by Nigel Farage’s dominance and by a failure to become a credible “government-in-waiting.”
Notable examples
voters at polling stations citing “I voted Reform/Restore/for Andy”; Reform conference described as chaotic (e.g., figures like Lucy Connolly and an anti-vaxxer); Reform’s early poll showing Restore at ~7% and then shifting strategy to that bloc.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOThe State of British Politics
2:40 to 3:37
Analyzing the structural issues facing Britain and its political parties.
“specifically the fact that most of it is frankly designed by people who are not concerned with what normal working guys actually need from their underwear.”
The State of British Politics
3:40 to 5:01
Analyzing the structural issues facing Britain and its political parties.
“Use code TRIGONOMETRY at checkout for 20 % off.”
Live Reaction to Makerfield By-Election
5:01 to 10:41
In-depth discussion on the recent Makerfield by-election and its implications.
“And if you like, the Burnham effect was real.”
Reform's Position After By-Election
10:41 to 14:00
Exploring the disappointing results for the Reform party and future implications.
“start to pick up in the local elections as well there are now serious issues for the reform project and the Nigel Farage project.”
Election Results Analysis
14:00 to 15:43
Discussion on the significance of the recent election results and public sentiment towards Keir Starmer and Labour.
“they were reporting the election result, this amazing, you know, 403, I think it was on the day, Labour MPs, this massive majority for Keir Starmer, on, you know, less than 34 % of the vote.”
Andy Burnham's Influence
15:43 to 17:59
Exploration of Andy Burnham's popularity and its impact on the election dynamics in Makerfield.
“I mean, his approval ratings are on such a negative level that they're off the charts.”
Reform Party's Challenges
17:59 to 20:23
Analysis of the Reform Party's strategies and their voter appeal, including polling trends.
“What struck me, though, was the number of...”
Reform's Election Strategy Failures
20:23 to 25:56
Critique of the Reform Party's campaign strategy in Makerfield and their failure to engage broader electorates.
“And they explained to me that they had a strategy for, if you like, taking reform onto the next level.”
Reform vs. Restore Dynamics
26:06 to 28:00
Discussion on the tensions between Reform and Restore parties and their implications for future elections.
“Although again, this isn't unusual territory for Nigel Farage.”
Political Dynamics in British Elections
28:00 to 29:55
Explore the shifting political landscape in British elections and the significance of middle-ground voters.
“And those have been coming out pretty fast and furious in recent weeks, far quicker than what we've been seeing from the Conservatives.”
Show all 20 chapters
Anticipating Coalition Politics
29:56 to 32:08
Discuss the potential for coalition politics between Tories and Reform parties and its historical context.
“When are we going to not have to see or hear this awful man Starmer ever again?”
The Rise of Andy Burnham
32:09 to 34:28
Analyze predictions surrounding Andy Burnham's potential leadership and his lack of a clear plan.
“So it seems that prediction markets wise are effectively convinced that Keir Starmer will be forced to leave and he will be replaced by Andy Burnham.”
Critique of Leadership Styles
34:29 to 37:39
Evaluate the similarities and differences between Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer regarding their political beliefs and strategies.
“I mean, you could be chasing down policies in the wind for him.”
Andy Burnham's Political Journey
37:40 to 42:05
Delve into Andy Burnham's political career and capabilities compared to Keir Starmer's.
“I mean, literally, people are telling me, but people are simultaneously saying to me, Andy Burnham doesn't believe anything.”
Analysis of Andy Burnham's Political Journey
42:05 to 48:08
The hosts analyze Andy Burnham's political history and potential future as a leader.
“Now, this is also where I agree with Julia.”
Public Perception and Political Identity
48:08 to 52:58
Discussion on how Burnham's identity and vision resonate with the electorate.
“But I think the issue Julia raises, which is an issue, I think, for all of us, and I look at this conversation and it stands out to me, is I don't know what Andy Burnham stands for.”
Challenges Facing Andy Burnham as Leader
52:58 to 56:00
The hosts discuss the obstacles Burnham may face from within his own party.
“He's someone you can actually spend time with.”
Andy Burnham's Political Landscape
56:00 to 57:14
Discussing the challenges Andy Burnham faces from within his party.
“And, you know, they are going to be, realistically, they're the ones who are going to be Andy Burnham's enemy.”
Burnham's Leadership Potential
57:20 to 1:04:28
Analyzing Andy Burnham's potential impact as Labour leader amidst political challenges.
“But just to pick up on what you just said, and also the point you make, because you You framed the question as Andy Burnham is going to be seen by Labour backbenchers as the man who can neutralise Polanski in the Greens.”
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
1:04:28 to 1:05:30
Wrapping up the discussion on Burnham's future and the state of politics.
“because of the situation the country is in?”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Julia Hartley-Brewer:I've bought two mattresses in my entire life. Both times I walked into a shop, lay on it for about four seconds and thought, yeah, that'll do. Genuinely world-class decision-making, which is crazy because you spend a third of your life on the thing and most of us buy one the way you'd buy a toaster. Today's sponsor is Avocado Green Mattress. Certified organic mattresses. No polyurethane foam anywhere near them, just natural materials and they're handmade. The bit that actually got me is you don't have to buy it blind. Avocado has real showrooms plus retail partners across the US. So you can go in, lie down properly, not for four seconds, and work out if it actually suits you before you pay for it.
0:39Julia Hartley-Brewer:They're not everywhere yet, so check the store locator for what's actually near you. Avocado products are made, not manufactured, and thoughtfully crafted with real materials to deliver lasting comfort and support. You can experience them in person at an avocado showroom or a premier retailer near you. Or shop online at avocadogreenmattress.com slash trigger to check out their mattresses and furniture sale. That's avocadogreenmattress.com slash trigger. avocadogreenmattress.com slash trigger. Right, I'm going to level with you. I'm not a gamer, even though I look like one. I'm not going to pretend I've been grinding through RPGs between recordings, or that I have strong opinions about which Final Fantasy was the best one.
1:22Julia Hartley-Brewer:I think it's Japanese and I think there's a sword. That's genuinely everything I know. But our social media guys showed me this app and I genuinely thought, that's quite clever. It's called Snacksy. Basically, game publishers need new players and they're willing to pay to get them. Snacksy just passes that money onto you. You play games you were probably going to play anyway. You own coins and you cash them out for real rewards. PayPal, Amazon, Netflix, gift cards. If you prefer gaming credit, you can redeem for PlayStation, Xbox, Steam and Nintendo or cash out your Ineba wallet. I've got no idea what that means.
1:56Julia Hartley-Brewer:Actual money, not just points that expire. It takes a few minutes to set up. You open the app, swipe through the game offers, pick something that looks decent, play it, earn, redeem. That's the whole thing. There's a sign-up bonus worth up to$10 if you use our link, which is in the description of this episode. That's S-N-A-K-Z-Y, SnackSync. Click the link in the description to get started. And when you sign up, use the code TRIGGERPOD. That's T-R-I-G-G-E-R-P-O-D to claim your$10 bonus. And the app is mobile only, so click the link from your phone, not your laptop. Gentlemen, we need to talk about underwear.
2:42Julia Hartley-Brewer:specifically the fact that most of it is frankly designed by people who are not concerned with what normal working guys actually need from their underwear. I'm talking about Sheath. S-H-E-A-T-H. Sheath.com. It's underwear built around the dual pouch system. What that means in plain English, everything stays where it should be. No sticking, no chafing, no shifting around mid-sentence while trying to maintain an air of gravitas. The fabric breathes, the design separates. There is apparently a technical term for what this creates. And that term is zen-like separation, which sounds ridiculous and is also completely accurate.
3:19Julia Hartley-Brewer:It was developed by a veteran on his second tour, which means it was designed under conditions where comfort was not a luxury. Over 10 ,000 five-star reviews from people who are not messing about. And I'll be honest, the difference to my day-to-day comfort is bigger than I'm comfortable telling you about on a politics podcast. If you know, you know. Go to sheath.com. That's S-H-E-A-T-H.com. Use code TRIGONOMETRY at checkout for 20 % off. First pair comes with a full money back guarantee, so there's no reason not to try them. Sheath.com. Once you sheath, you won't go back. Sheath.com. Something had gone structurally wrong with Britain.
4:03Julia Hartley-Brewer:We are a state which has turned against its people, all three parties of the right are realizing that they're not dealing with a series of separate problems. You're dealing with a single central issue, which is that the British state has stopped working. We are genuinely, I think, at a moment, I would argue, of a national crisis which is comparable only to the First and Second World Wars. there has to be a reunion of the right and that the only basis for that reunion is policy. But they're fighting each other. And I despair. If Britain survives, why did you say that? Because I think it is possible that it won't.
5:01Julia Hartley-Brewer:hello everybody and a very warm welcome to trigonometry the only show on youtube where you're going to get an underwear advert followed by an interview with an eminent historian talking about why britain is screwed uh we're joined tonight to analyze the uh by election make a field by election which andy burnham overwhelmingly won by two brilliant uh broadcaster julia hartley brewer and journalist dan hodges welcome to you both uh wonderful to have you on uh dan uh before we go to julia you were on the ground uh during the by-election talking to people there uh what did you hear what did people say to you and why do you think andy burnham secured the overwhelming result that he did well i think there are a number of things i mean andy burnham won the by-election because he was andy burnham not because he was andy burnham the labor candidate I mean, as you said, I spent the best part of a month up there.
5:59Julia Hartley-Brewer:And if you like, the Burnham effect was real. Roughly half of the people in the constituency seemed to know Andy Burnham personally, and the other half thought they knew him personally. And it was noticeable yesterday, just sort of being outside polling stations. I had people saying to me I voted reform I had some people saying I voted restore and then I'd have people saying I voted for Andy so firstly there was a very very it was very clear there was a very strong personal vote for him and I think that that will be significant moving forward because I think it does raise questions about the extent to which the obviously incredibly successful campaign that was waged by him in Makerfield can be transported to other parts of the United Kingdom.
7:00Julia Hartley-Brewer:I mean the other obvious factor was that this was a by-election that to all intents and purposes was primarily a referendum on Keir Starmer and as we know the people of Britain have made their minds up about Keir Starmer months and months ago and you know Burnham's strategy of saying vote for me today and I'll get rid of Keir Starmer on Friday or basically next week was obviously very successful at the ballot box and as we can see it playing out today seems also to be successful in terms of broader politics. But the other thing was, and I'm sure we'll get into this, I think first I think there was also an element of that this was a referendum more broadly across the constituency on Nigel Farage, his offer, and Reform's offer.
7:53Julia Hartley-Brewer:And I think what we've seen cemented in Maker Field is something that we've seen, and I think we've seen, developing for a considerable period now, which is the shine is definitely coming off Nigel Farage and reform and coupled with that we are now starting to see a quite organized quite sophisticated quite active anti-reform coalition that is developing in constituencies across the country and I think that has also has very significant implications for our politics moving forward well to your point the left was almost the left wing vote uh was almost entirely given to andy burnham in this election the greens got nothing the lip downs basically didn't even register from what i could see on the different charts etc um but i was going to ask you you talk to a lot of people when you're on the ground what what surprised you the most hearing from people uh just talking to ordinary people who were voters in this constituency?
9:00Julia Hartley-Brewer:Well, I'll be honest, I wasn't massively surprised because I thought, I mean, I wasn't one of the people who thought, you know, this was a nip and tuck, you know, going to be a tight by-election. From, you know, the first few days I was there, it seemed to me there was a strong move behind Andy Burnham. I mean, I think what surprised me was to all intents and purposes at the beginning of the contest if you walked around the constituency and obviously I'd been walking around similar constituencies just a few weeks before in the local elections it kind of had the feel of a what I would call a traditional reform constituency you know with all the issues that you know you've obviously articulated on this program and we've talked about before about you know post post-industrial northern sort of working-class british decline it it's it's all there in in in maker field you know you you you walk around sections of the the constituency and you see significant significant areas of the constituency which have you know union flags hanging from flagpoles etc um and when i first uh arrived there it seemed to me this was as I say you know fertile ground for reform and indeed you know to all intents and purposes reform were maybe favourites for the seat but as I said it became clear sort of quite early that the Burnham factor the inversion of the sort of vote for me reform vote for us ditched Starmer message was very potent but also and it it was something I did start to pick up in the local elections as well there are now serious issues for the reform project and the Nigel Farage project.
10:57Julia Hartley-Brewer:Julia Dan has already touched on this but let's talk about reform because that is a very disappointing result for them isn't it?
11:06Dan Hodges:Well Nigel Farage issued a statement on X saying just that but I mean it's one point worth making they got 35 of the vote I mean that I don't think that's what most people would regard as a disappointing result in a by-election I mean it was an extraordinary big vote for Andy Burnham but bearing in mind that the two leading candidates Andy Burnham and Rob Kenyon for the reform were basically the were basically standing on exactly the same platform. Vote for me, get rid of Keir Starmer. The thing about Andy Burnham is he was offering to do it rather sooner than Rock Union could do. I think genuinely, with all due respect to Dan, he was regular on my show as well.
11:46Dan Hodges:I know him for media, so huge respect. I think this is classic Westminster bubble, completely over-interpreting a vote, which was clearly a, he talks normal, he wears a t-shirt, not a tie. not sure that's going to go down very well in number 10 for a lot of voters. He is a nice guy. He's got charisma. Andy Burnham, he did a great job as basically sort of waving the flag for the north, for Manchester in particular, obviously, during lockdown when the Westminster classes were forgetting how hard life was in all the various tiers and lockdowns for people outside London. And there's loads of appeal there.
12:26Dan Hodges:the thing everyone forgets is that he wasn't offering anything other than change. Now, that's what Keir Starmer offered in 2024 in July that year, coming up to that two-year anniversary, and we didn't get much detail in his manifesto. We got even less from Andy Burnham. People weren't voting for anything, they were voting for Andy Burnham. That doesn't mean they were rejecting reform. The idea that reform won, I think all nine seats that were up for grabs in the local council, in May, just a few short weeks ago. But suddenly, no, they've decided they've got no time for reform and Nigel Farage and it's all over.
13:06Dan Hodges:They've peaked. It's over. It's now back to the two-party system. I think, frankly, it's a load of reasons.
13:13Julia Hartley-Brewer:Julia, but there must be a concern, surely, because this is the second by-election that reform have come up short.
13:19Dan Hodges:Well, you've got to remember, but again, ostensibly, this is a Labour safe seat if such exist anymore. Would realistically another Labour candidate that wasn't Andy Burnham and wasn't someone who could be the Prime Minister in, who knows, a few days, a week's time, a few months' time, would that Labour candidate, whoever they were, would they have been able to beat reform? I think that's a very big question. And this is why this wasn't a victory for Labour. This wasn't a defeat for reform. This was a victory for the candidate who can get rid of Keir Starmer, who in this case happens to be Andy Burnham.
13:56Dan Hodges:This is the same as, look, remember in 24, that all the gushing, I mean the oozing of joy from a lot of the mainstream broadcasters when they were reporting the election result, this amazing, you know, 403, I think it was on the day, Labour MPs, this massive majority for Keir Starmer, on, you know, less than 34 % of the vote. It wasn't vote for Keir Starmer and Labour it was a vote against the Tory governments and their failures so again I just think I think people can massively over interpret what this means on this given day people voted to get Keir Starmer out I'd have probably voted for Andy Burnham in Makerfield
14:35Julia Hartley-Brewer:if I'd had a vote well there you go Dan sorry go ahead Francis well you know there's obviously a lot of things to to pick up there i mean i think as i say julia is right that it wasn't necessarily an endorsement of keir starmer's keir starmer's labor party there was though a very strong sense amongst the people i was speaking to that andy burnham represented a a sort of return to a labor party that they personally can feel much more comfortable with um and you can argue whether or not you know Labour won or Andy Burnham won I mean I don't think you can it's quite clearly a very significant personal triumph for him but the one thing that you you we can also be clear on is in a seat that you know Julie is talking about you know popular Westminster opinion conventional Westminster opinion over the last month has been this this was a by-election that was on a knife edge that if Andy Burnham was going to win he was probably going to be because he was gifted the seat by Rupert Lowe and Restore and the reality is reform got a pretty big shellacking here you know they didn't even come they didn't even come close I mean I saw I mean I tweeted it before I saw Matthew Goodwin earlier saying you know this shows you know again shows reform can you know run the establishment parties right to the line i mean i mean as i said i mean you know reform weren't even in the picture when andy burnham got across the line and i i think the issue is you know again i i talked about this before you know i do think reform you know we are starting to see a pattern developing i mean remember let's just sort of invert the the the the issue for a second keir starmer is i think by common consent one of the most unpopular prime ministers in British political history.
16:33Julia Hartley-Brewer:I mean, his approval ratings are on such a negative level that they're off the charts. Win midterm. Governing parties never win by elections midterm. We came out of a backdrop of local elections in which, you know Labour were routed and yet as I said again in a major parliamentary by-election reform didn't even come close now I think you know in a moment we can get on to the broader structural issues that this by-election threw up reform's broader strategy how reform trying to deal with restore reform's candidate selection again but the reality is you know i've seen this you know i've again with respect to julia i've seen lots of people from reform trying to dismiss this reform can dismiss it if they want and reform can just say oh well you know it doesn't matter it was andy but it was the andy burnham effect yada yada but as i said that there is a fundamental thing that we're starting to see happening now.
17:42Julia Hartley-Brewer:I mean, you said about how the left were united against reform in this by-election. But there were also significant elements on the right that were also arranged against reform. Obviously, there's the restore issue. What struck me, though, was the number of... Now, obviously, there's not a huge Conservative vote here. but what was very clear was that that there were large numbers of conservative voters who were basically you know again they said it to me on the doorstep look never voted Labour in my life don't mind Andy Burnham dislike Keir Starmer but I'm not going to have reform representing me in this seat and that's conservative voters that's not why is it why is it what is it about reform that conservatives are not going to go for in your Well, I think this is I mean, this is a much broader conversation that I hope we can get on to.
18:39Julia Hartley-Brewer:But I think. Well, let's get on to it now. Well, OK.
18:43Dan Hodges:Before you go along, because I do want to go back on something up there about, you know, this is like, you know, governments don't win by elections. I mean, in midterm, we've got this much of an unpopularity, particularly for the leader. But I don't think this was effectively a government party candidate winning. the people who voted for Andy Burnham, the popularity he has, is because he's not the government. He's the anti-government Labour figure. He's the Mayor of Manchester. He's almost completely disassociated from this government. He can criticise their policies. He's completely, he's not responsible for any of the decision makings, any of the U-turns, any of the abject lack of any activity to do anything.
19:24Dan Hodges:He's not being treated as a representative in any way of this government. He's being treated as the alternative to this government, which is why I don't think that thesis quite holds tight.
19:35Julia Hartley-Brewer:Julia, I think you make a good point. But I think there's one thing I'll object before you jump in, Dan, which is, I think it's fair to say, I don't know, some people are saying reform have peaked, I don't think you can tell until the whole electoral cycle has run its course, of course. But you do see them staying flat in the polls and occasionally dipping, you see them, you know, there may be people within reform who try and put a brave face on it but i saw a clip of nigel farage saying he was disappointed and then also making an appeal to restore voters saying guys come on if you want a party that's on the right to win elections vote for us so clearly i think it's fair to say that the shine is perhaps slightly coming off and what i'm keen to understand from both of you and dan jump in first is why is that well i mean i let's let's let's go back i mean firstly just to pick up your point there is no ambiguity here polls go up polls go down if you look at the polling averages in september of last year reform broke 30 in the polls and we all remember that because that was the moment when people were talking about you know a reform majority government was possible from that moment on reform have been been into a relatively steady decline to the point they're now back down to about 25 in the polls And I remember last September having a discussion with a number of senior reform sort of figures.
21:00Julia Hartley-Brewer:And they explained to me that they had a strategy for, if you like, taking reform onto the next level. And it was essentially threefold. Firstly, it was to modernise, professionalise the party, get rid of some of the cranks, the loonies, the overt racists who had sort of gravitated towards the reform brand. The second thing was a very, very specific policy, which is Reform's internal polling showed that whilst Nigel Farage is very popular amongst men, he's much less popular amongst women. And to put it simplistically, Reform have a woman problem. And the third thing was that they were going to start to need to set out a serious policy programme and prospectus for government.
21:45Julia Hartley-Brewer:and that was kind of what the backdrop was in the run-up to their party conference um i think it was in october that year i might be slightly wrong about the about the day and i remember turning up to that conference and generally being interested at seeing how this this program was gonna with you know this new sort of new reform was gonna play out and frankly it was a bit when i got there it was a frankly a bit of a circus so you had and i don't want to rehash sort of the old arguments but i'm just literally saying what i observed so you had the situation where lucy connolly who had just been you know got out of jail for saying you know tweeting about burning down hostels and etc etc was literally on stage and fated like she was mother theresa You had a guy up there who'd been bussed over from the States who was talking, some anti-vaxxer who was talking about how the king had got cancer from some vaccination programme.
22:49Julia Hartley-Brewer:You had, I think it was Sarah Poochin who had to be, I think, almost physically stopped from walking onto stage dressed in a Union Jack Burka. And Andrea Jenkins came on the stage singing a song or whatever. and and the point was this whole sort of modernization we're taking ourselves to the next level we're going to be a serious party it kind of didn't happen and when I dug down and asked people what it why wasn't it happening what became clear for me was for reasons I still don't quite understand. Nigel Farage and the people around Nigel Farage were becoming spooked by what they saw as some sort of nascent sort of threat from Rupert Lowe and whatever you call the new right or the faction that Lowe represent.
23:49Julia Hartley-Brewer:And that instead of sort of embracing, moving forward and trying to embrace the country as a whole they're instead adopting a policy of trying to neutralize that faction and that to an extent is kind of what we saw replicated as well in maker field so we had this initial poll that came out right at the start of the campaign which had obviously restore on seven percent in that poll it seemed to be like it could be the difference between reform winning and reform losing but for the next three weeks of the campaign reform stopped trying to talk to the people of Makerfield as a whole and instead spent all their time just talking to that 7 % of restore voters, trying to plead with them, bully them, beg them into voting for restore, voting, switching from restore to reform.
24:48Julia Hartley-Brewer:we saw increasingly sort of aggressive messages in relation to obviously the backdrop of you know some of the issues so the appalling death of Henry Novak the appalling scenes in Belfast the riots in Belfast what was broadly an attempt to outflank Restore on the right and convince Restore voters as Nigel Farage and Reform were as hardcore on these issues as Restore were. And the broader attempt to engage with the electorate, the wider electorate, an electorate, by the way, that as we now know was broadly lining up behind Andy Burnham, went out of the window. And I think that is kind of part of the problem that we're seeing replicated nationally for Reform and Farage at the moment.
25:38Julia Hartley-Brewer:When you're 7-Eleven's hottest fire chicken sandwich, people think you're intense. Well, yeah, I'm hot! So, yeah, intense. Want to see if you can handle the heat? Then try me. With pickles or spicy mayo and jalapenos. Oh, and it's all just$4.99. That's a deal almost as hot as I am. Almost? Sweet? No. Spicy? See for yourself. $4.99 and only at 7-Eleven. Followed through 825-26. Participating stores only while supplies last. visit store for full terms and julia what have you got to say to that do you broadly agree or
26:13Dan Hodges:yeah i i agree with an awful lot of that i mean certainly what happened at the reform conference was utterly bizarre i mean some things you could never sort of unsee or unhear uh you know but uh and this troubles me to this day um look there's no question at all you know reform have been very focused and very rattled uh by restore there's such personal animosity between nigel farage and Rupert Lowe. Although again, this isn't unusual territory for Nigel Farage. He is a man who has made a lot of enemies over the years and there's no question at all, reform is, there may be many other figures like your Robert Jenricks and the Zia Yusuf and Richard Tice's and others, but fundamentally it is a one-man bang in the sense that what Nigel Farage says goes, it's his party and what he says goes and a lot of people won't put up with that.
27:03Dan Hodges:He would say his instincts are better than other people's on this front. That's why he's been, let's be honest, the most successful politician, influential politician, I should say, of his generation in terms of Brexit and what he's done. However, yeah, they're definitely rattles. But one of the reasons why Restore has been able to win so much popularity and was winning people over in Makerfield is because of Nigel Farage and Reform's attempts, which we've been seeing, to become more a government in waiting, not a protest party here are some policies lining up people which they you know I think in a rather silly way call you know shadow home secretary shadow chancellor uh their spokespeople they haven't got spokespeople for lots of other key roles like you know I don't have education as well a bravman but um you know defense and other issues they haven't yet got those spokespeople properly in place but to try and have sort of a platform of policies some specifics for people to to actually talk about.
28:00Dan Hodges:And those have been coming out pretty fast and furious in recent weeks, far quicker than what we've been seeing from the Conservatives. So part of that move from reform to sort of appeal to Middle England, to the people who would have voted Labour, voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 to get Brexit done. Those people who angry with the Tories, but just want any government that isn't a Labour government or, God forbid, a Labour Green coalition. And they're trying to sort of professionalise themselves now with varying levels of success, as we've seen. But crucially, part of doing that makes them look a little bit more sort of establishment than Rupert Lowe and what he's doing and some of the, let's face it, very, very unsavoury elements who support the Restore Party, including the likes of, you know, the Tommy Robinsons, and some, as has been publicised a lot in the last few days, some, you know, blatant neo-Nazis, let's call them what they are.
29:04Dan Hodges:I mean, you know, the left has been throwing the term far right out at anybody who voted for Brexit or isn't, you know, a full-on climate change hysteric. So that phrase, those two words have lost their meaning, but I mean, genuinely far right. And And as everyone knows, elections in Britain are, like in Europe, aren't won at the fringes. They aren't won on left and right, not by socialists, not by the fascists. They're won in the middle. And that has its own problems because then you're too like the Tories. You're not radical enough. You're not, you know, progressive in the true sense of the word enough.
29:44Dan Hodges:And I can see that happening. But I don't think that reformer have peaked as such. I think we are in the middle, midterm doldrums of, for the love of God, what is going on? When is this going to end? When are we going to not have to see or hear this awful man Starmer ever again? Why don't you guys get on with it? I hear people all the time on the right wing, whether Tories or reform, saying, why isn't there a general election? Why isn't he forced out, not understanding clearly how parliament works. But I think that just as with by-elections and with local elections, we've seen that voters' minds get focused at that time.
30:24Dan Hodges:And yes, you'll get tactical voting from the left, absolutely. And you'll also get tactical voting on the right. And the main issue that comes up, I think, on the right now is, will there be a coalition of some sort? Will there be some sort of either just a, you know, you stand in that seat, we won't really make much effort in that seat but leave us this seat over here kind of just quiet behind the scenes unofficial deal between Tories and reform are they in a position both them to make that deal quietly or you know even if it's not even stated uh you know to in in actual words or on paper and that there is likely to be many think a coalition from the Tories and reform after any general election.
31:08Dan Hodges:I think that I've been in this world for a very long time watching this very closely as Dan has as well. And I remember in 2010 when we had the announcements when we had the coalition government between the Libs and the Tories, it's the end of two party politics. In 2015, David Cameron won of a majority. And then, you know, it's all over and it's all going to change. And then we had Boris Johnson in 2019. Well, a massive majority. He's going to be in two terms. By the way, another very charismatic, successful mayor. Only lasted two years, imagine that. And then again, it was the end of all these different coalitions.
Read the full transcript
31:50Dan Hodges:It was back to two-party politics and it changes again. I think that voters and our country and political parties are in so much flux right now. I don't think you can predict what happens in a week's time, let alone the idea we can picture what's going to happen in two years time i think that is i think that's a fool's errand i really do speaking of predicting things francis sorry let me just jump
32:15Julia Hartley-Brewer:in on this one point uh because we it's something i wanted to say you talk about predicting uh i actually looked at the prediction markets calci is the partner that we use and talking about what all of this means for the country i mean looking at the odds of kia starmer still being prime minister uh by august and september i mean we're looking at the high 90s here you can see that 89 uh if he goes before august 1st and 86 he goes before the first of september uh keir starmer departure being announced and the other one i looked at as well is if we can pull that up is the probability of who is going to be the next prime minister and andy burnham is on 92%.
32:58Julia Hartley-Brewer:So it seems that prediction markets wise are effectively convinced that Keir Starmer will be forced to leave and he will be replaced by Andy Burnham. Now, the question is, what do we know about Andy Burnham and what will his premiership do to the country?
33:17Dan Hodges:Well, that's the crucial thing, isn't it? I mean, again, harking back because there are so many echoes of the 24 general election for Keir Starmer, you know, him on the front cover, the words change. And we never really found out really what that change was going to be to. I mean, I'm still two years in, I'm still not quite sure what their plan was, it would transpire after he sacked his chief of staff, Sue Gray, because that her job was to come up with a plan for the first 100 days, that there wasn't a plan. Now, one of the things that is, to a certain extent, holding the Burnham camp back right now, there's a lot of talk, they don't want cabinet ministers to be resigning.
33:52Dan Hodges:They want the Prime Minister to sort of come to his own realisation, this incredibly resilient man who's actually just pig-headed and stubborn and arrogant, that actually, you know, you're going to have to go with some dignity for the love of God, right? So the key thing is though, if he goes very quickly, Burnham then has to take over very quickly and Burnham doesn't have a plan. If you watch his speech that he gave, you know, after winning last night at three o 'clock in the morning, the speech he gave this morning on the stamps thanking everybody, there was zero substance. I mean, nothing, denada, zilch, nothing there at all.
34:30Dan Hodges:I mean, you could be chasing down policies in the wind for him. He doesn't have any policies. And this is the problem with him. He has, although he, okay, he's got a t-shirt, he's got a good head of hair, he's got pretty eyelashes, and he's a nice bloke. I mean, he's genuinely, he talks to him and he's someone you're quite happy to go to the pub with. Whereas the thought of spending five minutes in Keir Starmer's company feels anyone normal with horror. Imagine getting stuck in a lift with him. And that is a big factor of his popularity, but he's very, very similar to Keir Starmer. And he doesn't, as far as we can tell, other than a wishy-washy, you know, we're told soft left.
35:08Dan Hodges:He's fairly hard left, actually, but a wishy-washy social justice. wouldn't it be nice if people weren't poor tax the rich a bit blah blah I mean there's lower buses yes we all want those other than that genuinely I don't think he I don't think he believes in anything I don't think he has a plan I don't think he exactly like Keir Starmer knows why he wants to be prime minister what he wants to be prime minister to do he talks about change the same way Keir Starmer did two years ago but at no point are we hearing what that change is going to be. Bearing in mind, he's going to have not only, as he said, signing up to the same fiscal rules as Rachel Reeves, even though I'm not entirely sure.
35:51Dan Hodges:I gave that Newsnight interview the other day that he actually knows what they are. But also, he's going to have exactly the same backbenchers that Keir Starmer has, the same backbenchers. You haven't got a clue how the real world works, how to run a business, who think that you should put taxes up on businesses, and this mythical group of very wealthy people who aren't paying any tax, and won't leave the country if they can, if they put those taxes up, who think that we should spend more on welfare, not less, and who frankly don't feel too sure about us either borrowing more, taxing more, or doing any version of any cuts in any departmental spending to fund vital, vital money on defence.
36:35Dan Hodges:He's just going to be, he's going to have a bounce in the polls, I've no doubt That's all about that. And he's going to be able to communicate better. But fundamentally, a few months down the line, he's going to be in exactly the same predicament as Keir Starmer is, where he's going to be, and we've already seen him flip-flop Andy, as he was in the first two Labour leadership contests he ran in, in 2010 and 2015. He does U-turn after U-turn. I'll help the WASP women. £10 billion of taxpayers' money should go to these women who had to retire a bit later. Oh, no, I've changed my mind. We can't afford that.
37:07Dan Hodges:That took, I think, two days for him to U-turn on. We are literally into Keir Starmer, Mark II, in a T-shirt.
37:19Julia Hartley-Brewer:I mean, I think I thought what was interesting is I thought you kind of just saw there with Julia's criticism of Andy Burnham, a sort of a replication of the problem reform have just had in in maker field which is Andy Burnham's opponents at the moment don't really know what the best line of attack is on Andy Burnham so we had there simultaneously he's basically exactly the same as Keir Starmer he doesn't know what he believes in but he's actually somehow a creature of the hard left and the last time I heard I saw and I'm by no means going to broaden this comparison but the last time I saw sort of people struggling to sort of get a handle on how to criticize a politician was when the Tories were trying to deal with deal with Blair and couldn't work out whether or not to say he's this slick slimy sort of deceitful operator who doesn't really believe in anything or he's actually he's actually secretly as hard left and dangerous as the hard left and if you remember the whole demon eyes thing that was going on and there's a bit of that there's a bit of a sort of a demon andy sort of sort of confusion i i i think just don't say demon come on no but But I mean, no, but do you know what I mean?
38:46Julia Hartley-Brewer:I mean, literally, people are telling me, but people are simultaneously saying to me, Andy Burnham doesn't believe anything. He's always flip-flopping. He doesn't believe in anything. And then simultaneously saying he's actually almost as hard left as Jeremy Corbyn. Now, the two can't be right. But just to step back onto a couple of things. In terms of the broader conversation we've been having and the conversation we'll be having moving forward. There is one thing that we know for certain about Andy Burnham, right, which is he is not Keir Starmer. And before we get into any discussion about, you know, have reform peaked?
39:28Julia Hartley-Brewer:What's going to happen with Labour? Can Kemi Bad not bring the Tories back to life? The one thing we're going to have to wait for is Keir Starmer's removal. Now, you were talking about the predictions. Everything I'm hearing this evening, if Keir Starmer doesn't announce on Monday stepping down or Tuesday or Wednesday stepping down, I'd be amazed. But so I think that's the sort of timeframe we're looking at. We're looking at now. But the key thing is Keir Starmer is such a unique, distorting prison within British politics because he is so unpopular. he is so despised we will all have had the experience Julia will have had this you I'm sure will have had this you go around the country you go anywhere north south east west red wall you know metropolitan wherever Keir Starmer's names come come comes up and it is met with ridicule boring on hostility and hatred that I personally haven't seen before I haven't seen it at this level and I frankly can't properly quite quite rationalize so it's only when Keir Starmer goes that in a sense the picture will will clear now the other thing is I completely understand the criticism there's been of Andy Burnham flip-flopping but the point is Andy Burnham did exactly what Andy Burnham needed to do in that by-election so if you remember when the by-election started off and I remember having this debate at the time the initial thing was the by-election has been going 24 hours it's already been framed framed through the prism of Brexit and his support for Brexit that's a disaster for him make a field Brexit see it's a disaster and I remember saying at the time no it's not because this he is not going to get sucked up into a national sort of campaign in what is basically going to be a very very localized campaign in terms of it's Andy he's from here his kids go to school here etc etc etc he was very skillful in my view in ensuring that he didn't get sucked into a huge debate on Brexit or a debate about his economic policies or his debate about his foreign policy or a debate about welfare policy he basically just wandered around saying you know and i'm as julia said i'm andy i'm a nice guy i'm from here you like me don't me and people said yes now that does not mean that that is the andy burnham we're gonna get in government because the other thing is and this is where i completely disagree with judah about that he's just like kirstana for good or for real i mean i i know because i used to work with him andy burnham has been in politics his entire life Andy Burnham was an advisor he was a Labour MP he was a chief secretary of the treasury he was a health secretary he's been a successful Labour mayor of Manchester he's just won you know the most important by-election in British political history right he is not Keir Starmer he is not a political dilettante he is not someone who doesn't understand politics and what is necessary to succeed in succeed in politics and he does have something to use that terrible phrase something of a political hinterland now he's been on a political journey certainly when we were working together i was saying this somebody the other day he was even more new labor than than i was but the reality is andy burnham is astute enough to understand that what what worked for tony blair in 1997 is not going to work for andy burnham and and Labour in 2027 or whenever and he has enough political experience I think over the next few weeks and months to put forward something that will resemble certainly when set against you know what what what Keir Starmer presented something that is a coherent political program and political narrative.
43:34Julia Hartley-Brewer:Now, this is also where I agree with Julia. That, however, does not mean that any of the myriad problems that we're all aware of and that you've articulated, obviously, on this programme and will continue to articulate, suddenly magically go when Keir Starmer goes and Andy Burnham, if it is Andy Burnham, comes in. But all I'm saying is I don't think it is right to say, look, he didn't say anything about what he was going to do in government in the Makefield by election. So it's because he hasn't got a clue what he's going to do. I think that's too simplistic a criticism.
44:09Dan Hodges:I'm not saying that. There's just no evidence that he has thought about a lot of these issues. And there are things that, you know, I mean, and obviously he touched on very interesting in his speech this morning, that one bit hint, hint of a policy that he touched on was that it was unfair on people of Makefield to have migrants being dumped, these mass contracts where Serco turns up and pays double the rent anyone else can pay, therefore they get all the local properties and you get streets of HMOs. There was a hint that was wrong and it was unfair. He didn't actually offer a solution to that.
44:46Dan Hodges:I don't think that, I think he ran a blinder of a campaign, no doubt at all about that, but the trouble is, and he's got this long history as a successful mayor, as a cabinet minister, but he was a cabinet minister, you know, under Tony Blair, when there was loads of money, when he had a very, very astute leader, and he wasn't held to account personally as being, being a mayor, being a backbench MP, being a cabinet minister are all completely different from being the prime minister to governors to choose, you have to make choices. There are a heck of a lot of very, very tough choices that are about to be made and he said he's going to bring change but he's also going to stick to the Starmer manifesto offering change but we don't know what kind of change that was supposed to be either and he's doing it as I say with the same backbenchers and with the same fiscal constraints and realistically what can he get done when the things that most need to be done the things that the majority of people who frankly paying any attention at all no need to be done spending on defence, cutting welfare, dropping net zero, are things that I think we can be very, very sure he's not going to be able or willing to do.
45:59Dan Hodges:The fact that Ed Miliband has been touted as a likely candidate for being Andy Burnham's Chancellor, I think is a bit of a giveaway there. Andy Miliband is a climate hysteric zealot. He makes Greta look moderate and normal on this issue. He is one of the main reasons why we are heading into oblivion when it comes to our energy policy, industrial policy, our inability to pay for defence. It's a massive national security issue now, the net zero issue. Anyone paying attention knows that that was always an insane policy. It's a particularly insane policy, given the current global situation that we're in right now.
46:38Dan Hodges:But can you just pick up on that?
46:42Julia Hartley-Brewer:I mean, again, I think that's an example of what what I'm talking about so we've already got you know Andy Burnham has been an MP I think for like what five hours now five or six hours now Julia is already criticizing him for it for the fact that he's appointing Ed Miliband as his chancellor.
47:00Dan Hodges:I've seen it I've seen Ed Miliband touted as his
47:06Julia Hartley-Brewer:chancellor I've also and I've written it myself I've also seen it touted that he may and I think this chills this terrifies me even more frankly that he may well retain Rachel Reeves as his Chancellor to to to to reassure the markets I've seen people talk I've seen reports that Yvette Cooper might be his Chancellor I've seen I saw a report that Lou Hayes was going to be his Chancellor as I'm saying now I am not saying for a moment if Ed Miliband is brought in as Chancellor all of Britain's problems will be solved but what I am saying is once again the criticism of Andy Burnham is a criticism that is not at the moment rooted in anything that Andy Burnham has actually said or done or even close become even even even close.
47:56Julia Hartley-Brewer:Julia sorry let me jump in here because there's one thing I want to address we're getting very Westminster-y here and I want to come back to the country a little bit and I think one of the most important things is Dan you were very eloquent about what Andy Burnham is not. But I think the issue Julia raises, which is an issue, I think, for all of us, and I look at this conversation and it stands out to me, is I don't know what Andy Burnham stands for. And I don't think anybody does. So I'm not saying he's a Greek. Look, I mean, don't just slipping into sort of becoming Andy Burnham's spokesman on this programme, but let me try.
48:32Julia Hartley-Brewer:Well, that's true. That's why we brought you on. Let me articulate it in a sort of a broader context and one that I think we will all grasp. It seems to me, and I watch a lot of what you both talk about, I think we would all probably agree that one of the fundamental sort of fissures in British politics, in British society, is the fact, and you know, we were talking about, Julie was talking about the success of Nigel Farage and reform. is that over the last 10 20 30 years we have had a politics that has been shaped by a small i'm going to be slightly simplistic here but let's roll with it a small sort of Westminster clique elite whatever what have you that has governed in a way that a significant section of the British electorate, primarily if you want to call white, working class, lives outside of the big traditional metropolitan heartlands, particularly in the north of England.
49:41Julia Hartley-Brewer:What has become badged primarily as Red Wall Britain was basically cast aside and was viewed by both of the main political parties as at best as expendable and at worst as an obstacle to the great liberal sort of progressive Britain that these the the two parties wanted wanted to build now if you're looking for Andy Burnham's identity whatever criticisms you have have of him Andy Burnham is someone and we saw this in Makerfield we've just someone who's if you like political identity over the past five six seven years has been shaped firstly by engaging with a constituency outside of that metropolitan elite and more broadly as someone who is rooted and and you know it will become we'll all get bored with it in in in a years or a couple years time you know northern andy all that sort of stuff but he is somebody who does understand and engage with the broader problems of what I would broadly call Red War Britain.
50:57Julia Hartley-Brewer:And I was at his sort of victory rally thing today, and he came up with something which, if he follows through on it, I actually think could potentially have some significance, which he said is everything that we now need to do as a party has to pass the make-a-feel test, which is, is what a Labour government is doing, is it going to directly not not indirectly through some sort of Blairite or sort of Thatcherite sort of trickle down thing is it directly going to benefit people here in Makerfield now I'll be honest I haven't heard that from a Labour leader before Boris obviously tried to articulate something along these lines and obviously was was in the short term was actually very successful in trying to articulate a vision so that is where I would give if you want to look for Andy Burnham's political identity that's where to start that's where you start however again this is where i agree with julia and and i'm sure yourselves it's one thing to sort of have these things like the makefield test and mantra is at magisterism etc etc but to overlay that template onto the political reality of a country that has no defense has no borders has a welfare crisis has a pensions crisis is obviously of a completely different order.
52:17Julia Hartley-Brewer:But equally, those are the issues that will be confronting the country whoever replaced Keir Starmer, not just Andy Byrne. But that's the problem, isn't it, Julia? We're going to need a leader to come in and for want of a better comparison, be a Margaret Thatcher, be a Margaret Thatcher of the centre, of the right or of the left. And you're looking at Byrne, and maybe this is just a surface level analysis, But I don't think he's got the spine in order to tackle that and go against his own party, which is what he's going to need to do and risk a whole load of his MPs and supporters hemorrhaging to the Greens.
52:57Dan Hodges:Yeah, I mean, that's the thing. And look, I want to make it very clear. I like Andy Burnham. He's a nice bloke. He's someone you can actually spend time with. And I think his heart is probably in the right place. I mean, all politicians are ambitious, aren't they? But as you say, I don't think, and I'm not 100 % sure right now we have anyone in any party that has both the beliefs and the drive and the ability to push those through, but also to create the coalition, the wider coalition to make that happen in our very sort of, you know, His Majesty's government, the opposition dynamic we've got in Parliament.
53:38Dan Hodges:because I think that is very, very difficult. We do need, I mean, almost, you know, a national unity government to deal with all the big stuff, to say, look, we all know, and frankly, a lot of the sensible people in all of the political parties, there are some that don't have many sensible people, accept that these are all the things that need to be done, but they won't do them. Now, if he is, if he is as popular as Dan believes he is, if he really does have this charisma and this ability, and that that can be enough and he's got this vision and he does have a plan, if that is all the case, then he will do some of the things that you were just mentioning and I've been mentioning earlier in the podcast.
54:16Dan Hodges:And he'll be able to do them by saying to his backbenchers, look, I know we care about people on wealth. We don't want to take anyone off wealth. I know that we want to spend more on the NHS. I know we want to do this and that. And I know we care about the environment, but we need to do X, Y and Z because this is what the country needs. And it may not be what we feel like we like now, but we can do it. Now, a strong leader could do that, could drive that through, would be able to push that through, have the powers of persuasion. I don't think there's any evidence that he does have that. And one of the things that I think really did it for Keir Starmer was this U-turn after U-turn after U-turn.
54:55Dan Hodges:Not only did he not believe anything he said, even speeches he gave, the Island of Strangers speech, apparently he didn't even believe, hadn't read it. You know, he didn't believe anything he said. He didn't have a plan. But also, crucially, whenever he came up against pretty much any opposition at all, he did nothing about it. He just went, oh, OK. He slunk back into his corner and he gave in. Now, the first moment when Andy Burnham tries to do anything that is vitally economically or security wise necessary, and he gets pushback from a large number of more left, the backbenchers largely being more on the left, those backbenchers who thought he was their great white hope.
55:34Dan Hodges:the moment he buckles that first time that he buckles he's finished because because all of his backbenchers will know right we've got another pushover we can prevent this stuff from happening and there are an awful lot of people Labour Party members not so much the voters they're much wiser Labour Party members um and and many on the back benches of that party and quite a few frankly in the government bench as well who who genuinely think that this stuff doesn't need to be done And, you know, they are going to be, realistically, they're the ones who are going to be Andy Burnham's enemy. Not Kemi Bates, not PMQs asking her six questions, not Reform in local by-elections in the Red Wall.
56:14Dan Hodges:The real enemy that Andy Burnham is going to have to face down is his own backbenchers. Chronic migraine is 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more. Botox, onabotulinum toxin A, prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine before they start. It's not for those with 14 or fewer headache days a month. It prevents on average 8 to 9 headache days a month versus 6 to 7 for placebo. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms.
56:43Julia Hartley-Brewer:Allerge your doctor right away as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue and headache. Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms, and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS Lou Gehrig's
57:06Dan Hodges:disease, myasthenia gravis or Lambert-Eaton syndrome, and medications, including botulinum
57:10Julia Hartley-Brewer:toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects.
57:13Dan Hodges:Why wait? Ask your doctor, visit BotoxChronicMigraine.com, or call 1-800-44-BOTOX to learn more.
57:20Julia Hartley-Brewer:But just to pick up on what you just said, and also the point you make, because you You framed the question as Andy Burnham is going to be seen by Labour backbenchers as the man who can neutralise Polanski in the Greens. Obviously, there's an element of that. That's not why Andy Burnham is about to become elected leader of the Labour Party in Prime Minister. We saw it yesterday. We saw it this morning at the rally. We saw it in Makerfield. Andy Burnham is the reason why Keir Starmer is being thrown out of the balloon two years after winning a 400 majority is because Andy and replaced by Andy Burnham is because in the eyes of Labour MPs Andy Burnham has one job and it's not to save them from the Greens although there's a component of that his primary job is to save them from Riffle and Nigel Farage Andy Burnham rightly or wrongly this morning across the Labour movement is seen as the Farage Slayer.
58:22Julia Hartley-Brewer:Now, whether he is or he isn't, we're going to find out in obviously in the next few months and years. But that's what to the extent he's going to have a mandate from anyone. And I personally have written about today. I mean, I think there should be a contest within the Labour Party rather than the coronation. But either way, the extent to which Andy Burnham is going to have a mandate from his party to do anything. It's going to do one thing, and that's to defeat Nigel Farage. Now, obviously, he's going to have a lot of problems, to put it mildly, dealing with that. But the majority of Labour MPs understand you do not defeat Nigel Farage by articulating an incredibly liberal view on open borders, or by reopening the Brexit argument.
59:10Julia Hartley-Brewer:Now, it's not to there aren't people within the Labour Party who do want to see those those arguments articulated but certainly for the first six to twelve months of a Burnham premiership those people will find themselves put pushed to the background if Burnham can present himself as as I said someone who can be an antidote to to reform and what I think part of what he will do there will definitely be some in some sort of areas a shift to the left but as we've seen within reform there are elements of reforms policies, particularly on the economic side, which themselves are quite left wing. And Kemi Badenok has obviously done a good job in articulating, critiquing that.
59:53Julia Hartley-Brewer:So this idea that Andy Burnham comes in and he's just going to be another Starmer liberal lefty, that's not going to be his job at the beginning. His job is going to be save us from Farage. And there is an appreciation. firstly Andy Burnham appreciates this himself and the people around him do and also a number of Labour MPs they may not like it but they understand that if they if they do want Andy Burnham to see off Nigel Farage there are certain things Andy Burnham is going to have to do and say that maybe they wouldn't normally feel that comfortable with and certainly they weren't going to let Keir Starmer get away with when Keir Starmer had a popularity of minus 44.
1:00:35Julia Hartley-Brewer:If Andy Burnham can retain any sort of national popularity and can demonstrate any sort of bounce in the polls at the moment and can in any way narrow the gap between Labour and reform, then he will get a bit of breathing space from his party. If he messes it up, they'll take his head off. But in the short term, they'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
1:01:02Dan Hodges:He'll get the breathing space but as soon as he has to make a decision he's going to upset one side or the other and any decision. But as I said that's what having the breathing space is,
1:01:16Julia Hartley-Brewer:he will be given the opportunity initially if he wants to take it to deal with some to take some difficult decisions and in the short term Labour MPs will suck it up and see how it how it works out now obviously if subsequently you know if we're sitting here in 12 months time and Andy Burnham is at minus 44 but you know personal rating in the polls and Nigel Farage is on 40 percent we're going to be having the conversation about who replaces Andy and Andy Burnham but the idea that you know Labour MP is going to pounce on him immediately and say right you've got to do this you've got to you you've got to do that if if he does secure the labor leadership he will have a honeymoon period it won't be a long one but he will that's one thing
1:02:05Dan Hodges:the honeymoon period would be different from labor backbenchers from the voters i mean voters don't expect things to change immediately a lot of people you know may not know much about him you know as we follow him closely don't know much about what his policies are but again i i simply don't accept that actually that honeymoon can last very long because there needs to be action and when there isn't action he will be blamed for that and when there is action he cannot please everybody all the time and it's very easy when you're the mayor of mantis to sort of please all these people all the time and you know it's you're not being held to account for you know what money's being spent on defense what money's being spent on health what you know whether the trains run on time you're literally not being held responsible for every single thing that happens in the country which was what happens to a prime minister and and i don't think he's going i just don't see anything from all the things that i think are good about him i don't see anything in there
1:02:57Julia Hartley-Brewer:that suggests he is going to be able to withstand it he will do it trust me on one thing and andy burnham has been around politics long enough to know the difference between mayor and manchester and being prime minister of the united kingdom no that's he knows that difference that's a totally fair point but i think uh we've got one minute left i think the point that i agree with julian is this the reason you you mentioned that it's inexplicable to you the hatred and animosity that exists in this country towards gear starmer who let's be honest i don't think most of the public know what he's done he hasn't done anything that they would regard as terrible actually there's not if you said to the ordinary person what is he doing quite a few things they think i don't I don't know about that.
1:03:38Dan Hodges:Would you do an allowance for elderly people? Come on. A lot of people still talk about that. Two years on?
1:03:44Julia Hartley-Brewer:My point is bigger than this, which is I think the country is in a very bad way in the way that you've actually both articulated. And that is where people's frustrations come in. Keir Starmer has borne the brunt of that because he has been in power during the time that that situation has continued to get worse. All the previous Tory prime ministers before him were also deeply unpopular. Boris Johnson had a very brief period that ended during COVID and thereafter. And so my point is, Andy Burnham may be a very nice chap who may develop some policies, who may get a honeymoon from the Labour Party.
1:04:19Julia Hartley-Brewer:But ultimately, Dan, final word to you for literally 30 seconds. Don't you think he will become Keir Starmer, not because he's like Keir Starmer, but because any Labour prime minister currently is going to become deeply unpopular because of the situation the country is in? 30 seconds. no I don't think he'll become Keir Starmer if Andy Burnham fails he'll become even less popular than Keir Starmer but that is not that failure is not currently preordained there we go Julia Hartley Brewer Dan Hodges thank you so much for a great conversation really appreciate you joining us on this Friday evening I'm sure our audience have loved this thank you so much for being here thank you
1:05:07Julia Hartley-Brewer:When it comes to my policy, Farmers gives it to me straight, so there's no surprises. It's your coverage. You should never be confused. You hear that? An insurance provider with a conscience. We're a choir, but yes, we have that too. Straightforward coverage you can literally understand. That's what you get when you have Farmers. Bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum. Learn more at Farmers.com. Underwritten by Farmer's Truck or Fire Insurance Exchanges or Affiliate. Products not available in every state.
From the publisher
The by-election results that could trigger a Labour leadership crisis, with Andy Burnham, Keir Starmer, and Reform UK all with stakes in the result. *Trade on what happens next with Kalshi. Trade $10 with code TRIGGER and receive $10 free. http://kalshi.com/r/TRIGGER
Triggernometry is proudly independent. Thanks to the following sponsor for making that possible:
- Go to https://Sheath.com. Use code TRIGGERNOMETRY for 20% off
Join our exclusive TRIGGERnometry community on Substack! https://triggernometry.substack.com/
OR Support TRIGGERnometry Here:
Bitcoin: bc1qm6vvhduc6s3rvy8u76sllmrfpynfv94qw8p8d5
Shop Merch here - https://shop.triggerpod.co.uk/
Advertise on Triggernometry: https://trigger-brands.com | or enquire at marketing@triggerpod.co.uk
Find TRIGGERnometry on Social Media:
https://twitter.com/triggerpod
https://www.facebook.com/triggerpod/
https://www.instagram.com/triggerpod/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
