The Best Iran War Breakdown You'll See on the Internet with Aimen Dean & Richard Miniter

30:06So how do you then pressure the Saudis to stop the war? The Saudis are saying, we are going to stop the war only when the Houthis give up the access to the sea so they don't threaten international maritime traffic. And just keep this in mind, please. and then if they give up any long-range offensive weapons, more than 150-kilometer range, if they do that, we will end the war and they can form a power-sharing agreement with the other Yemeni parties and we will end the war. The Biden administration said that, no, the Houthis will not accept that, but because we have far greater priority is that in a pathetic nuclear agreement that we need with the Iranians, so we're going to stop giving you the munitions that we agreed to supply you and that you purchased and paid for in good faith.

31:00We will not give it to you, so you can't carry out your war. And the Saudis said, by all means, we'll make our own. But then the Biden administration went further, and that was a rough between November and December of 2021, when they said to the Saudis, well, we're going to stop supplying you with the Patriots. missile systems that are necessary to intercept the houthi ballistic missiles so you become sitting ducks and so and when the saadis are saying well we have enough like in amin supply for about six months seven months we'll continue the fight so by march of 2022 by the administration gave the biggest stab in the back to the saadis by saying we're not going update the software so you truly gonna be sitting ducks now your water your oil facilities you know your and already like you know in 2019 the saudi's you know saudi aramco was struck and almost 5.7 million barrels of oil every day for 22 days were lost to the global production the biden administration gave the saudi's the trauma of their lives that you cannot rely on america because America was slavishly seeking the satisfaction of rabid fanatical mullahs in Tahran, favoring them over an ally that has been steadfast beside them for 75 years.

32:27That changed the equation. And that's why the Saudis decided that if Iran is so powerful that even America is like kissing the ring and literally and asking for forgiveness for what Trump did before in terms of tearing apart that awful nuclear deal, then you might as well do a deal with them. And that's why the Saudis went to China. And by March of 2023, the Chinese brokered a deal between the Saudis and the Iranians for a detente, for a non-aggression pact. And that was born out of the fact that the Saudis cannot trust any American administration after that of betraying them, you know, just in order to seek, you know, a deal with the Iranians over the national security interests of the Saudis.

33:22What happened? What changed? Trump came back. And what changed everything was the B2s in 24 June last year, smashing the nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. That changed the mindset of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, MBS, that, aha, okay, maybe now there has been a significant shift in American policy. We can And now trust that there will be a regime, not change necessarily, what they were looking at, an actual regime containment that could actually finally push them back into their own borders in a way that would deter them from interfering in their neighbor's affairs. And that's why the UAE and Saudi Arabia, despite their differences in Yemen and Sudan and elsewhere, they were united in the fact that it's now or never.

34:21And so when the Saudis saw the two aircraft carriers and the biggest buildup in the Middle East since 2003, they realized that it's now or never. And they agreed with the Israelis on this.

34:34Konstantin Kisin:But that being the case, Eamon, you outlined what was happening beautifully in Saudi and the other countries. It's still one hell of a gamble, isn't it? It is. I mean, one of the things I've been talking to people, of course, like from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Saudi Arabia and in UAE and other diplomats and ambassadors and security services, intelligence services, and they tell you, like, you know, we are worried about refugees coming across the water, like what happened after the Iranian revolution in 1979. and we could have a destabilizing civil war. We have ethnic makeup. But I disagreed with them in a sense that, look, civil wars generally in the Middle East happen because of external pressures are actually pulling the country in question apart.

35:26But in this case, there is almost a consensus among Iran's neighbors, in Pakistan, Turkey, and Gulf states, that Iran post-revolution or post-regime collapse should remain united. They wanted to be united, that's the first thing, because a divided one will be a catastrophe for the region because of ethnic and sectarian strife will tear the rest of the region apart because of it. Just look what happened in Syria. We don't want a Syria 10 times over. and yeah but however it was inevitable because of the fact that the regime built itself over the bureaucracy of the Shah so it built itself layer after layer but then these layers were really rotten and they're going to collapse at any time the reality is the fact that the Iranian society if you want to really like you know get a simplified I'm simplifying it here if you want to simplify the sentiment.

36:3025 % of the Iranian population would gladly kill the regime and the ayatollahs. And 25 % of the society would gladly kill for the regime and the ayatollahs. They are the other end of the spectrum, the zealots, the fundamentalists. And then you have the 50 % in the middle who want to live. They don't want to kill or kill for someone or die for someone. So they are the ones who always were looking to live and they are trying to, they are pragmatists. One of the things about the Iranian people, whether Persians or Azeris or Kurds or Lourdes or Arabs or Balouche, they are amazing. They are actually people who are pragmatists.

37:20However, they want to live. The problem here is that exactly in this, you know, four letters, L-I-V-E, they want to live, is where the regime was hit, you know, in a Achilles heel spot. in our podcast conflicted like in i mean on 21st october episode um i was talking about the fact that you know since i was a banker once you know yeah i know like you know basically i was you know choosing one form of terrorism to another into banking but uh um but i was a banker once i was the head of the financial intelligence units in the middle east for one of the global banks and one of the things i was looking at is stability linked to currency um fluctuation and so i was looking at the fact that on the eve of the end of the 12 days war the iranian currency was 600 000 rials per dollar then of course on 21st october with my co-host thomas we were discussing the fact that the currency broke through the 1 million per dollar i told him that thomas i'm worried because if it passes, and that's all in that episode of 21st October, I said if it passes 1.3 million per dollar, that's a mass protest territory.

38:43And then, of course, 28 January, sorry, 28 December of 2025, it passed to 1.35, and this is when the Bazaris, you know the uh trade the trading classes the business classes like i mean they called for the stripes and the protests because that's it this is now incompetence um of the regime and because of the perceived incompetence of the regime not even perceived it's real they are they are a bunch of incompetent people when it comes to managing the economy they actually invited that on themselves by not only degrading the living standards of the people but also without giving the people some light at the end of the tunnel that we know what we are doing and we know how to negotiate with the US to lift the sanctions or to ease them in order to improve the living standards no, they were just arrogant in their belief that the people will follow them no matter what even in the darkness of a tunnel that has no light at the end of it um and that's where things went too bad now i said that episode also i said if it reaches 1.6 million that's a civil war territory now it is at the moment standing at 1.6 1.65 possibly 1.7 even it means that they have mishandled the economy completely and that's why we need to understand that the fact of the matter is that the Iranian people after the 12 days war ended they woke up on a reality here is the fact that the regime since 2005 until 2025 these 20 years they wasted roughly two trillion dollars of lost GDP accumulated GDP losses every year, 30 billion, 40 billion, 60 billion, 80 billion.

40:44Every year they were losing these figures due to sanctions over a nuclear program that hardly cost about 20 or 30 billion dollars. And in addition, they spent during this period 300 billion dollars on Hamas, on Hezbollah, on the Houthis, on propping Assad regime, on the Syrian civil war. 2.3 trillion dollars to money savvy Iranians is so much to take. But they were always told it's for the pride of the nation. We're going to be a nuclear power. We're going to have this beautiful kind of like in a mushroom cloud in a test of nuclear strength in front of everyone. We flex our muscles. But then it all went up in dust when, you know, President Trump authorized the use of the GBU-57.

41:35bunker busters and these bunker busters like you know basically did not only just penetrate deep into the mountain and collapse it over there in rich uranium it collapsed it over their hopes and ambitions and they realized we are led by donkeys and idiots you know and as a result like i mean we lost everything so it's like the children who saw their you know compulsive drunken gambling in a father in a Vegas casino wasting the entire family silver on a hope and a prayer you know and a prophecy that one day they will win the jackpot only to become jackass unfortunately so and that's why they were angry and they went out to the streets

42:23Konstantin Kisin:look Eamon I quite agree with you on this but I think one part of the puzzle that we haven't addressed yet is the islamic republican guard and because you look at them and you think to them and you look at that the number of people that they've got in that army anywhere from 150 to 200 000 people you've also got the secret police the regular police i mean this is going to take one hell of an effort to try and defeat these people surely it's 265 000 you know if we look at the entirety of their force um because i remember the the irgc is multiple factions it's not only one faction you know and but i always simplify it you know by the economy faction you know the money faction i will call it basically and the real zealot faction um the reality is that the irgc controls 40 and up to 45 percent of the entire economy thanks to the sanctions and thanks to the way they created these companies.

43:26I mean, I used to be a financial investigator, like, you know, I mean, in counterterrorism finance. And so I used to see, you know, a lot of their companies, you know, Khatam al-Anbiya, al-Shaheed Foundation, and looking at their infiltration into, you know, more than 100 sectors from telecommunications, you know, the medical sector, pharmaceuticals, export, import, construction, and of course, like, you know, above everything else. the energy sector, gas and petrochemicals and oil. And when you look at everything they do, it was about enriching the IRGC to become a very powerful benefactor of all of the proxies they have across the region under the umbrella of the Quds Force, which is a part of the IRGC responsible for their external armies.

44:14The armies as a whole, Hezbollah, Houthis and the Iraqi militias and Hamas and all of that, At some point, numbered 700 ,000 people combined within the entire Middle East under arms outside of the state control. That was scary. But then also, what is their mission is? If you look at the IRGC, the IRGC doesn't stand for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. It stands for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. and their entire mission is not only just because they have fanatical allegiance to the supreme leader because remember by the way like you know that the article 5 of the constitution of the Islamic Republic which is weird by the way you will be surprised like you know who the head of the state is you know the head of the state you would expect will be either the president or the supreme leader himself but the reality is that neither of them are the head of the state according to the article 5 of the iranian constitution the head of the state is actually a you know a five-year-old boy who went missing 1200 years ago um you know which is the figure of the imam mahdi um and you know and okay of course for me you know and for you and for everyone else like you know basically listening like you know that's a bit weird but for them it is faith it's an article of faith you know and you know okay i i respect their you know uh faith but not to the extent where it be you know it becomes that a disputed figure like you know basically you know whether real or mythical you know becomes the head of a state in a modern nation state in the 21st century um and that who then becomes the head of the state on his behalf will be the jurist, the grand jurist, the grand cleric who would be the steward on his behalf until his much anticipated return.

46:09And because of that allegiance that the IRGC give to that figure of the supreme leader, the deputy on behalf of that either mythical or religious figure, depending on which side of the fence you sit on, you end up with a fanatical zeal the readiness to kill 30 ,000 people of your own people in two days on the 8th and 9th of January this year to defend that regime because you do believe that it's a divinely ordained regime and that there is a blueprint that if this regime survives it's the regime that would be there to give the banner and to be the vessel through which the empire of this much-awaited messiah will be established and to vanquish all the other rivals in the region with his divine powers.

47:06I mean, I know it sounds foreign to you, foreign to me, but remember, when people tell me, you know, oh, you know, they are rational at the end of the day. I say no. They are pragmatists sometimes, but they're never rational. and anyone who fall into the you know illusion that they are rational will hit the wall just like trump said you know i don't know why they are not surrendering i don't know why they are not coming for a deal well because they are not rational don't deal with them as rational

47:32Francis Foster:that being the case richard thank you for your patience it i it strikes me that france's question was exactly right but amon covered the one side of it i'd love you to cover the american side of Francis said, this is an extraordinary gamble. And given what Eamon has just described about the dedication, the religious dimension, everything else, is President Trump gambling his presidency and his legacy on this? And is this a big risk to him and to his entire administration? War is always a big risk, but sometimes not going to war is a bigger risk. I think that Trump chose a time well before the midterms, so he's got off-ramps and options so that this does not dominate the headlines in the critical voting.

48:25The view from Washington is that there is a three-seat majority in the Republicans and the House of Representatives. three elections could turn control of the house if the house is lost to the republicans the next the last half of the trump administration will be entirely investigations impeachments uh paranoid claims and justified claims right unfortunately right uh the administration is staffed with um beings and some of those human beings are flawed um and so nothing will happen So the president needs foreign policy victories and, most importantly, foreign policy quiet so that he can focus on domestic reforms that would win votes.

49:14Because ultimately, there's never been a case in American history that I'm aware of, including the Vietnam War, that foreign policy was the number one issue for American voters. so that that's one piece of it another is that i think the president is aware certainly his advisors are and i've talked to those people that what's called twelver shia islam this particular sect of shia islam let's not point paint with such a broad brush most shia do not share this perspective but the ayatollah khomeini absolutely did and his followers among the houthis in yemen absolutely do and many aspects of hezbollah many of the factions of the hezbollah share this what is important about this you've heard emin talking about the missing imam they believe that in a kind of messiah a mati will return in the form of this five-year-old boy who disappeared 1 ,200 years ago, apparently down a well, and that to bring about his return, you need the end of the world.

50:24So giving these people atomic weapons means they will want to end the world for deeply religious reasons and see themselves as glorious until that final moment, kind of like beneath the planet of the apes in which the whole world explodes. This, these are the absolute worst people to have atomic bombs, people who actually want to use them. Other more normal countries that have atomic bombs use them in a different way. They use them by threatening to use them and therefore never using them, right? That is the real power of an atomic bomb. We could do this, so instead make a deal with us. That is why, for example, the West has not fully backed Ukraine in the Biden years.

51:10They were afraid of Russia launching atomic attacks. Also, the Iranians have studied the Libyans, Ukrainians, and the South Africans. Those are the only three powers that have declared to have and believably had atomic weapons. Other nations claimed to have atomic weapons that didn't, right? But of those that we absolutely know for certain had atomic weapons and gave them up. How did the rulers of those countries turn out? Well, from the Iranian perspective, the white South African government lost power. You could argue that was a good outcome or a bad outcome, but that's the result. The Libyans gave up their weapons that they seem to have, including chemical and biological weapons as well.

51:57And whereas Qaddafi now, Now he died an ignominious death on the side of the road, and his country was beset by civil war. And of course, we know what happened in Ukraine after its 1994 treaty to give up the atomic weapons that the Soviets had left behind in that country. So they said, one, we need to have atomic weapons, and two, we need to never give them up. The North Koreans have learned the same lesson about not giving up weapons, and they will not give up easily. but they do not have a religious reason to bring about the end of the world so if you are looking at this so what is what is trump playing at ending a threat to mankind from a regime that has shown great willingness to kill millions of its own people if we add the iran orak war these various bombings the starvation that has occurred in many of the more distant provinces the malnourishment that has accrued in others, and then the massive terrorist attacks.

53:01Also greatly overlooked is another thing, which is Putin's letter following the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, right? He called it a cynical murder by the U.S., but read the rest of his remarks. He clearly saw Iran as an ally. Iran wasn't always the world's largest sponsor of terrorism, state sponsor. The USSR was. Terrorism is not a Muslim invention. It is a Russian invention. It is the Novemberists of the 1830s, the anarchists of the 1860s in Russia. It becomes a tool of the czar in the 1890s using the Armenians against the Turks, which ultimately led to the genocide carried out by the Turks. But the Turks had a long line of atrocities against themselves to point to in justification.

53:53I'm not saying it makes it right. I'm just describing the history. And then under the Soviets, terrorism becomes a key foreign policy tool. In the Middle East, in Europe, look at the Red Army faction, the Beider-Meinhof guys, look at South America, and look at the weathermen in the United States and others, right? They clearly think they can amplify their power through proxy forces. And so the Iranians fully absorbed these Russian lessons. And don't forget also, there were 300, until recently, 300 Russian engineers at Pusher working on their atomic weapons program. Those are the ones we know about.

54:33We also know that the Iranians manufactured drones for the Russians to use in Ukraine and elsewhere. So there was one, some of the people who do not want a regime change in Iran are Russia and China, because this will put them on their back feet. Now, this would be, if it is accomplished, something that Trump can point to as a victory. This massively decreases Russia and, to a lesser extent, China's influence in the region if a non-sectarian regime takes over, even if it's composed of former military elements and is not a democratic dream. Because also, bear in mind, Trump is making a distinction which his critics simply don't understand.

55:20The difference in rebuilding a regime in America's image versus in its interest. image means it's a copy of you know westminster and washington you know there are elections and by-elections and neutral counting of votes and independent judiciary and property rights and all these wonderful anglo-saxon institutions uh this is not what they were attempting to do under the bush years in iraq but it is certainly what the critics charge them with uh in fact when i talked to Rumsfeld's deputy, Paul told me straight up, he said, our best outcome for Iraq in 10, 15 years is Romania in 1995. So they were much more realistic in their planning, the neocons, than we've been told.

56:10But the image, regime change, is carbon copy of Britain and America. But that's impossible given the people and the pressures acting on those people. But that's America's image. Now let's look at its interest. Its interest is much simpler. An Iran that is not at war with its neighbors through proxy terrorist forces or directly, right, in any way. An Iran that is not a humanitarian catastrophe. Iran has today one of the highest inflation rates in the world, right? And as Eamon said, inflation always predicts civil war, if it's hyperinflation. So we're not going to see boots on the ground, certainly if the Trump administration has its way, but somebody's going to have to stabilize the currency and perhaps dollarize Iran, either through a currency board, which is unlikely given how rotten its institutions are, probably complete dollarization replacement of the currency with the U.S.

57:19dollar. That's easier in Iran than it sounds because their exports are mostly, they receive dollars for oil and gas. And they pay their, they import electricity from Turkey and Azerbaijan and they pay for those in U.S. dollars. So moving and with a nearly worthless currency now, and it may well be that the Israelis have been helping by counterfeiting currency inside Iraq. Remember, a million Iraqis go into Iran every day to go to work and then go home at night. So it's very easy to carry counterfeited currency into that country. So, but their own mismanagement of the currency. so stabilizing the currency and enabling people to have electric power food and water stability and not a threat to their neighbors that's what that those are the two things you need to maintain an american interest in the region that doesn't mean we that there is a democratic utopia that doesn't mean that all the problems of iran are solved as if by a magic wand it means that iran is no longer a tiger devouring its neighbors it's a den of wolves who stay

58:38Francis Foster:in their den of wolves right well that makes a lot of sense and you laid that out beautifully but i think my question remains because i guess what you're describing is you know you take out darth vader and you install his lieutenant who's not as not quite as bad right but amon's point is well, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, these are fanatics. And who is it in a country like Iran, where there's 200 something of them with guns, that is likely to take over once you take out the top leadership? It's probably not going to be, as you suggest, it's not going to be some liberal minded person.

59:16So is it actually realistic even to have what you are describing,

59:22Francis Foster:which is a regime that is in America's interest, a la what happened in Venezuela. When you take out the top guy and you replace them with another person of the same ilk, who's just going to be much more compliant and much more friendly. Is that actually likely in Iran? That's why I'm asking you if Trump is gambling. Well, all wars gamble, but he is absolutely gambling because if you leave it up to the Iranian people to decide and different Arab and non-Arab outside groups provide them with arms, you're going to have one of several outcomes. Either the Mujahideen al-Kaq, the MEK, takes over. Those are people that the U.S.

1:00:06can work with, but it would be a mistake to call them liberal-minded humanitarians. They have a severe creed of their own. There is a smaller chance that the son of the Shah can take over. There are ethnic groups that may want to have control over their own regions. I think the chance of a civil war is very high, unless somebody can establish order very quickly and have the loyalty of the military to do it, which is less ideological than the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. and you know the israelis are already at the decision that you just have to kill as many of these people as possible you can't change their minds you have to stop their minds the u.s is not there uh and the fact that it's giving a no kill list um which i don't think is publicly known uh indicates that the u.s has a very different view they would like this to be over as soon as possible.

1:01:12A four-week campaign is what the Israelis were able to get out of them, but if there was a shorter campaign option, I'm sure that Trump would take that. The threat needs to be neutralized, not utopia created.

1:01:29Konstantin Kisin:And Eamon, do you think a four-week campaign maximum is realistic? Because to my completely untrained eye i think this could potentially last for years look there is no way i mean absolutely no way of uh having a a more pragmatic leader uh in iran without getting rid of the irgc you know because the irgc call all the shots you know in terms of military ideology you know they are the elite fighting core it's like saying basically that I'm going to install a Roman Emperor but without you know against the will of the Praetorian Guard good luck with that you know without the help of the Praetorian Guard without their agreement you know there would be no Emperor and it is sorry to interrupt you and you're the expert here but I

1:02:22Francis Foster:think even that does a disservice to what we're actually talking about because the Praetorian Guard on many occasions murdered the Emperor and installed the one that they preferred but what you're talking about is a religious fanaticism and then and then that one what you're talking about is also a religious fanaticism on top of that which i think is much harder still surely exactly and that's why i'm saying that the reason why we have now four people controlling iran at the moment you know you have the head of the judiciary who is bloodthirsty in a nasty person who handed you know thousands if not even tens of thousands of test sentence in his entire career.

1:03:01Then you have Ayatollah Arafi, who is an extremely hardline jurist, and he is now the spare, you know, Ayatollah, if you can call him. Then you have the extremely useless President Pazashkian. And then you have, of course, the, you know, the wily, the, that fox, Ali Larjani, who is a man of all seasons, the Thomas Cromwell of Iran. And these four people are now controlling Iran. First of all, Ali Larjani as the head of the National Security Council, but the other three, the president, Ayatollah Arafi, who's the spare Ayatollah, and the head of the judiciary. These are forming the three-member interim leadership council until a new Ayatollah is confirmed.

1:03:49And the indications at the moment that maybe even they will confirm Ayatollah Arafi as the current leader. Why? As a permanent supreme leader because he is the IRGC top pick. And the IRGC as long as they call the shots in Iran there will be no reformist. There will be no someone who will act in America's interest I'm afraid. And so anyone who comes and try even to act in America's interest he will be murdered. before even they take office. That's why we have to understand that without dismantling, you know, absolutely dismantling, uprooting, you know, the IRGCs, you know, as an institution and as a fighting force from Iran, there is no hope for the future.

1:04:40It is a state within a state. It is a cancerous tumor inside Iran. And, you know, without taking it down, there is no future for that country and so how do you for instance Richard you

1:04:55Francis Foster:look like you wanted to weigh and feel free if you did yeah a couple of things one is the regime is humanitarian catastrophe for its own people but those people are largely because they're Iranians and they are very Iranian and they're Iranian this riven into factions and and hard to unite and they're unarmed for the most part. So who is on that no kill list is the question the White House press corps should be asking. I suspect Larajani is on that list that the CIA would like to work with him. Yeah. Yes. That will not lead to, it might lead to a more tempered regime, but it will not lead to the regime that all of the Democratic performers are dreaming about.

1:05:42He might weaken the dress requirements for women, which are massively unpopular. There's a great video out of a morality policewoman being forced off a train in Tehran a couple days ago by a crowd of women, some of whom had completely uncovered hair. So among the educated, of which there are a lot in Tehran, a great hatred of these so-called Islamic rules, which are not in the Quran, by the way, These are the interpretations of Ayatollahs over the years. So he may do some things there. He's certainly going to have to do some economic reforms. And when he's pressed to undo the ties to various terror groups, he's unlikely to comply because that's the only counterweapon he has.

1:06:33Also accelerating this is two things which have not come up before. One is current experience in America, and the second is American history. quick American history. In 1979, 52 American diplomats were held for 444 days. When I asked a senior, basically the deputy head of the Iran desk in the State Department in the Obama years, whether these two numbers meant anything to him, 52 and 444, he just shook his head like, these are random numbers. I said, okay, how old are you? And he says 37. I said, Well, for everyone over 45, these numbers are in their brain for the rest of their lives. That is, how many hostages were held for how long?

1:07:17And the national dishonor. And there was Ted Koppel on network television, which had a big audience in 1979, held a special every single night called America Held Hostage. And it had the number of days that this has gone on. And it frequently had video of blindfolded American diplomats and American Marines being beaten. there is an almost Roman sense of American honor that needs to be slaked. So anybody over 45 or over 50 who's looking at the Iran situation, that is also in their field of vision. They remember that. So the amount of sympathy for this regime among those who are over 45 in America is a negative number for the most part, right?

1:08:06unless you're highly ideologically motivated, even then, right? The dislike of this regime is intense. So American history also influences current American experience. So we had a stabbing and shooting attack on the Washington, D.C. front way, which appears to be linked to an Islamic militant who may have been motivated by Iran. with all the facts have not come out. And then we had an attack in Austin, Texas, with a guy wearing a shirt that says property of Allah. And underneath that shirt, an Islamic, an Iranian Islamic revolutionary flag. And we have the FBI admitting that there are some 700 Hezbollah, not Iranian, just Hezbollah terrorist cells, sleeper cells that are believed to be in the United States, not very few of which are under direct surveillance.

1:09:09So as these proxy attacks increase in the United States, the American thirst for war will go up massively. And so this will become a majority. If these attacks continue and Iran is seen as to be behind them, the ability to end the war halfway, the way the CIA would like to do it, in three or four weeks and have their guy, Larajani, whoever their nominee is, run things, that may not be politically possible. If you're killing Americans in America, the political calculus will instantly change. And since the Iranians have lost centralized control, both of the terror networks and of their military units, this might not be within the Iranians' control either.

1:10:00In other words, say Larajani or one of his ilk is put in power, he may not be able to stop them any longer. This may in fact have been the design of the Ayatollah before his death, the kind of dead man switch to prevent peace after his death. So is it a gamble, Constant? It is absolutely a gamble on multiple levels, but it might have been a bigger gamble to do nothing.

1:10:58Yes.

1:11:00Konstantin Kisin:That being the case, and we're talking about American attitudes to war, surely when they start seeing servicemen coming home in coffins, that is going to affect all of America, but particularly the MAGA America First element of Trump's base, which is an incredibly large part of it. Yes, but this is a very popular misunderstanding even in America. Americans are not turned off by body bags. They're turned off by people dying for no reason. If there's a clear cause that the American people think is just, then the World War II death tolls did not deter people from supporting the efforts against Germany and Japan.

1:11:57It's where these political goals seem hazy and not directly tied to U.S. interest. if there are more terror attacks if this is what they were you know the evidence is still emerging these could be volunteer efforts by random lone individuals it is possible right but it is more likely that it is organized at some level by the iranians if these continue then just like pearl Harbor, just like 9-11, the American interest in war will go up massively. We are not Europeans. We do not tolerate mayhem caused by foreign actors against innocent civilians, especially women and children. That is simply not tolerated by a large number of Americans.

1:12:54And so Trump's ability to end the war, his faunted off-ramp, may politically disappear if the terror attacks increase in number or in lethality. That is a much bigger gamble. And there might be political risk in stopping the war before the American people feel that security and safety has been returned. And if these terror attacks are, if they are directed by Iran, and if they are, if they continue, two big ifs, then nothing less than complete eradication of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard will be the desired outcome. So this is a mouse calculation by the Iranians of an enormous amount.

1:13:45Francis Foster:Well, it sounds like this is going to potentially run and run and really will be a thing that could have a huge impact on geopolitics, on American politics, on the Trump presidency. And we've got five minutes left. And I want to touch on geopolitics before I do. I think our audience would have been enjoying this so far. And I just want to remind them, Eamon Dean, The Conflicted Podcast, they can go and listen and check that out. And of course, Richard, with you, Losing Bin Laden, Mastermind, leading from behind and a whole bunch of other very successful books that you've written about issues that really very closely to do with this so i hope people go and check both of your work out after this but the final issue that i think we should tackle before we wrap up is the geopolitics of it we had um we recorded an interview with canadian opposition leader pierre poly of this morning with francis um and he you know his view was the u.s is effectively engaging in what you He didn't use the term proxy war, but he did feel that dealing with Iran in this way is a direct anti-Chinese dominance move, anti-Russian dominance move.

1:14:56Francis Foster:Eamon, you're shaking your head, Richard, maybe just briefly, very briefly, a minute and a half each on the geopolitics of this. Is this about Russia and China? Is this just about the Middle East? And what is likely to be the geopolitical impact of all of this? Do you want me to go first? Yeah, please. 90 seconds, Evan. 90 seconds. Okay. Imagine you're on the BBC, mate. You've got 90 seconds and I'll interrupt you seven times. No problem at all. I'm used to it. Well, look here. First of all, we have to understand that the Iranian regime established proxies, established terror cells all across the world, with Hezbollah, of course, basically in places from Latin America, West Africa, the United States from Dearborn, Michigan, all the way to Romania and Eastern Europe, like all the way to Mauritius, where they have their banking empire.

1:15:46So at the end of the day, it's not about China or Russia. It's about the fact that Iran itself is a gigantic beast of terror networks, money laundering networks, worth about$74 billion a year. You are talking about a radicalization movement that is trying to subvert Islam and the Islamic nations. You have a movement that is actually within the IRGC that's trying to swallow their neighbors, which could upset, you know, especially when their neighbors and with Iran together, they control about 60 percent of the world's oil reserves, 40 percent of the world's natural gas reserves. This is a threat to global, you know, energy security and energy safety.

1:16:31When you say America first, America cannot be first at home unless if it is first in the world. And therefore, you cannot allow a regime like this to threaten the safety, stability of the global energy markets for ideological reasons that have no place in the realm of rational thinking and logic. and the idea that it's about Russia and China, no, Iran is as big a threat, even more than Russia and China combined. And it needs to be dealt as a problem by itself, not because it is linked to either Russia or China.

1:17:17Francis Foster:Okay, Richard, your final thoughts, particularly on the geopolitics of all of this? Yeah, so let's just focus on Russia and China. If the regime changes in Iran, the drone production for Russia disappears. That has an enormous impact on the Ukraine war. This may be a piece of a puzzle for Trump to get to peace in Ukraine, and it may force the Russians' hand. That's one. Two, the source of cheap oil, with sanctioned oil, the Chinese are able to buy Iranian oil at below market price. We've now seen in the last month a brand new relationship with India. The Trump administration has taken the eye out of bricks, with India being the eye.

1:18:00And the Indian Navy is boarding and in some cases sinking the shadow fleet of Russian and Iranian oil tankers. That will increase and be increasingly coordinated. The ability of the regime to fuel China will go down. and then with the change in regime, it will cease to exist. What does this mean? This means that China will not have the oil and gas that it needs from Iran to cross the Taiwan Strait or to do other things. And its economy will almost certainly slow down. So its ability to menace its neighbors will slow down. So for those China hawks at the Pentagon and elsewhere in the administration, they see that undermining Iran is key to weakening China.

1:18:51If you look at what Rubio, the Secretary of State, has been doing in South America, not just in Venezuela, but the ongoing negotiations with the President of Colombia, who will in the next few months almost certainly step down. His wife has fled to Sweden and is seeking asylum in that country. you will start to see changes in Nicaragua and in Cuba and eventually Mexico. That also pushes China and Russia out of the Western Hemisphere. Maybe they can hold a toehold in Bolivia and in Brazil, but even those are fragmentary, right? So if you look at it on the world, if you spread out the world map and you see what they're doing, Iran is the latest move in a continuing of chess moves to fundamentally weaken Russia and China and eventually to turn them against each other.

1:19:49This is a level of almost Nixonian, Kissingerian complexity being done by eight people, one of whom is Trump, who only talk to themselves, and that includes Rubio, Hegseth, and so on, a so-called gang of eight, Susie Weiss, and so on. but this is a very complicated chess move critics tend to look at these things as isolated episodes and then try to make historical parallels oh this will be another stalin grab this will be another iraq there'll be another afghanistan and so on they simply do not they have not spread out the world map and put pins on the map to see all of the different moves being made to see the pattern that is obvious only at the highest level.

1:20:35This is a fundamental recalibration of global geopolitics against Russia and China. Iran is just a piece of it.

1:20:45Francis Foster:Gentlemen, thank you so much for sharing your knowledge and wisdom and expertise with us. And thank you so much for tuning in and watching it. We had tens of thousands of people watching this live. There will be hundreds of thousands who watch it in the final analysis, if not millions, and listen to it. Thank you for being here. Please hit the like button and leave a comment so more people see that this has been here. And thank you for being with us for an hour and a bit. Richard, Eamon, thank you so much for joining us. It's been a real pleasure to get your knowledge and to help to understand a little bit more of what's going on.

1:21:17Francis Foster:With that, we'll be signing off, and we'll see you soon. Thanks, guys.