The Next Mayor of New York? - Olivia Reingold

28:04Olivia Reingold:So I'm sharp on these numbers. And it's really hard to find. I would say you probably need to pay like five, six thousand for a studio to live in any neighborhood that is considered like cool in New York City. So it's become the fastest group that is fleeing New York City are white collar workers, people who are making two, three hundred thousand dollars a year. I mean, which is just insane, because if you said to most people, you're going to go to college, you know, you're going to come out, you're going to get a job over 100 grand a year. You'd be like quids in. I've done it. You know, high fives, mom and dad.

28:48We've all made it. But the reality is you're kind of above the breadline in New York, which is he's been very interesting about landlords.

28:57Olivia Reingold:Yeah. And I think that's really resonating. I think we should talk about that. Yeah. So I think that this is why the DSA is not just taking off in New York. It's it's taking off in cities that also have a cost of living crisis where white collar workers. of, yeah, you can pay your rent every month, then okay, maybe you're saving, I don't know, $75 one month. The next month, you're probably more in debt. That is why it's resonating so much with these upwardly people who in a different era, maybe only five, 10 years ago, before COVID would have been considered upwardly mobile, arrived in a city like New York and certainly don't see a path towards home ownership.

29:47Well, right. I mean, think about just the numbers. If you earn 100 grand a year and you rent a studio for five or six grand a year, you're spending 72 grand a year just on rent. Well, it's hard to live because you've got other expenses. Forget about saving anything.

30:03Olivia Reingold:Right. And then there's taxes. And so I think even if you have roommates, whatever, I think that, so Zoran is a millennial. And I think that who he's resonating most with are these people who are really struggling to kind of break into the hallmarks of adulthood. Like home, home ownership, marriage, kids. He's also, of course, very popular with Gen Z. But it's these millennial activists within the DSA who have been really crucial in getting him over the finish line and in their just immense canvassing, door knocking operation. And what is he going to do to tackle this rental? Let's call it what it is.

30:55It's a rental crisis. It's that simple in New York.

30:58Olivia Reingold:Right. What is his actual policy? So he is proposing a rent freeze for all rent stabilized units. And in New York, that's 44 % of all rental housing. And the next question is, well, can he do that? And it's unclear. It's unclear. Because basically how the city institutes rent freezes, which mayors in the past or other administrations have instituted, it's through a board that the mayor can appoint if there's a vacancy. But it's not a direct action, if that makes sense. The board is responsible for instituting whether or not they institute a rent freeze or how much rent goes up by. So that's really interesting.

31:49So it's not completely in his power. No. Because we've talked to former guests about Mamdani and they've said, look, you know, he can say he's going to implement all these policies. But unless the governor of the state releases the funds, then he's kind of tied, isn't he? Really?

32:06Olivia Reingold:Yeah. Yeah. So the other policy, another policy he's proposed is a millionaire's tax. There are question marks on a lot of his policies, like the child care or his massive Department of Community Safety that would augment slash replace parts of the police department. You know, how is he going to pay for these things? Well, it might not surprise you that the answer in most instances is an increase in taxes. And you're exactly right. He needs collaboration from the state government. He needs collaboration from the state legislature. And then he would need the governor to sign off on that, too. And the governor is Kathy Hochul.

32:54Olivia Reingold:She's a Democrat, but really more of an establishment Democrat that now is having to navigate this herself, this huge populist movement in New York City. So she's up for reelection in 2026 and she's already endorsed Mom Donnie. Mom Donnie has not endorsed her for her reelection campaign. And she said she doesn't want to raise taxes. And that's I mean, that's a huge political liability for her going into 2026. So long story short, is that a lot of tricky politics? It's very uncertain that he would be able to get that done. Because that puts him in a very precarious position, because effectively, he might well be writing checks in order to quote Top Gun that his body can't cash.

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35:49I've been to New York. there's a lot of people who are more super wealthy than that. Let's put it that way. But the thing is, those people are so incredibly mobile, particularly within the United States, that the risk is, I suppose, that a lot of them will simply move somewhere else and take their businesses and wealth generation with them. Does he have an answer to that? Or is he like, I'm glad they're leaving?

36:11Olivia Reingold:So he doesn't believe that that is going to happen. He says that he really diminishes the amount that the percentage increase in taxes upon millionaires. He's suggesting a 2 % increase. He's like, guys, they're not going to leave over 2%. Well, I spoke to not millionaires, but actually billionaires, people whose impact on local tax revenue is far, far more impressive. And these people are already so close to packing up and moving to Florida, moving to places like Texas. And a lot of these guys, they say that they're getting pressure from their employees, that their employees who those are the millionaires.

37:02Olivia Reingold:So 2%, I mean, I think it's also just a quality of life thing too where the parks can be so scary and sketchy uh just basic quality of life issues regarding safetiness um people the incentives to stay in new york have already cracked and it's and what it talks about especially and the reason i find new york so fascinating, this particular example, is that you have got the most capitalist city in the world. Yeah. In the world. Yeah. The hub of business, finance, banking. You think of you think of finance and banking, you think Wall Street. Right. And then you've got this guy. Yeah. Yeah. And I think that.

37:53Olivia Reingold:I mean, it's almost. Poetic, like it. There's a huge irony there that you just you just pointed out and i think it's because income inequality is so severe in new york city it's so it's so severe where i mean there's hardly a middle class there the the average salary now i'm like maybe i should look this up but i guess i should say to raise a family within New York City. So that includes residential queens. That includes the Bronx. Anywhere in New York City, you need over$300 ,000 for a family of four. And that's just like to kind of break even. Yeah, you're not living in luxury. A lot of people listen to this going, 300 grand, that sounds like a lot.

38:44But what you're saying is in New York now for a family of four, you're just about going to get by.

38:49Olivia Reingold:Yeah, yeah. So the middle class in New York is totally hollowed out. You have a situation where the people who are just getting by are white-collar workers. And then, of course, there are the people who are actually just living in poverty. So, yeah, it's very ironic that New York, the center of capitalism, has become this, this, uh, the center of this fight. But in some ways, I think that's helps explain why it's become the center of the fight. You know, people like Bill Ackman, uh, who's a billionaire, um, Dan Loeb, another billionaire who runs, um, a hedge fund, they have become huge sources of ire for Mom Donnie supporters, where a lot of DSA members, they're really familiar with, there are all these names in New York City of just local wealthy families that people really have it out for in New York City.

39:58This comes as no surprise when you think about the murder of Brian Thompson by Luigi Mangione, which itself was obviously awful and horrific, but then the celebration that came afterwards and how Mangione was was turned into a sex symbol by

40:14Olivia Reingold:some people it was grotesque yeah and the the DSA this group that has really propelled mom Donnie I mean they have had really radical reactions to all these instances uh where after Joe Biden was was diagnosed with cancer. You know, we, I have access to the DSA's internal message board and I read it all the time. And basically, anytime there's one of these events, you know, sometimes there are people who are outright celebratory, but at the very least, it's people who feel like it's complicated. And obviously, that relates back to October 7th, too, where Momdani, Jewish New Yorkers are a part of his coalition.

41:06Olivia Reingold:Cuomo is polling better with Jewish voters, but only by a few percentage points. And Momdani has had a lot of Jewish supporters very visibly within his campaign. But when you look at, well, who are these Jewish voters and what do they believe? These are often really radical groups, like one that shows up to everything he does is Jews for racial and economic justice. And after October 7th, they released a statement that said that Hamas' terrorist attack was unjustifiable, but not unprovoked. So that kind of sounds like a justification, right? And so there's this anti-Zionist bend that's really active within Momdani's coalition.

41:57Olivia Reingold:But I think you've rightly picked up on this thread of kind of anger and sometimes justification for violence that is active on the far left and is it's not not a part of Mamdani's coalition, too. And do you think his success is something that will be replicated in other cities in America that will appeal to people beyond New York City where, you know, the housing issue is not as bad in most other places? in the U.S., but it is very bad in some places in the U.S. And do you think you're going to start to see things like him in California, perhaps, in D.C., maybe, and other places? Yeah, I think the only uncertain dynamic is just, as we said, Zoran is so charismatic where you really, that's the unknown, is will there be someone as charismatic in a city like Houston or San Francisco?

42:56Olivia Reingold:But you're already starting to see people run in his image. So the DSA is highly organized. They are mapping out school board races in the San Antonio suburbs or water referendums, you know, outside of Pittsburgh. So they are already talking about the midterms, certainly, which are just around the corner, and then even 2028. So the DSA, they have plans to run candidates in major races across the country. And you're already seeing, you know, on election day, it's not just Zoran's big day, but there are similar candidates in cities like Minneapolis. Arguably, the mayor of Boston is already kind of in this vein.

43:47Olivia Reingold:So, yeah, there are already his impact is already felt. You know, it's, look, I don't agree, but it's a smart play. It's a smart play because when I looked at the Democrats, when they embraced identity politics and then the Labour Party in our country, I was like, this ain't going to fly. This ain't going to fly with white working class people. It ain't going to fly with people who are more naturally conservative. It ain't going to work. There is, it just isn't. It's not going to appeal to enough people. I look at this and you talk about the inequality and the gap between rich and poor and it's growing all the time.

44:25And then you're talking about cost of living crisis, inflation, housing crisis, all of this. And you go for the left. These are very, very rich pickings.

44:36Olivia Reingold:Oh, oh, absolutely. And I think that. In America, there's so much to gain for whomever deploys economic populism, without the identity politics. And Zoran, I think, has had so much success because for the most part, he really has avoided the identity politics. He, when he talks about his plan for community safety, he's not really talking about an epidemic of Black and brown men being shot, you know, language that we heard in 2020. He is trying to do a new brand of kind of post-BLM politics. But there are still these hints of identity politics. You know, on the debate stage, it came out, his plans to support trans New Yorkers.

45:32Olivia Reingold:Immigration is obviously going to continue to be a huge thing and there could be a potential clash with ICE. And so, yeah, it's unclear to me if he's really moved on from this. How he handles public safety and police will continue to be a big test. But I think you're right. The economic issue of it is huge. There's a huge potential upside there. And look, and there are people on the right and hopefully there are people in the Republican Party who are watching this as well. Look, you need to be addressing this. Absolutely. You need to be talking about this because this isn't an issue that has been created artificially in the corridors of Columbia University.

46:16This is something that affects practically every single person in this country. And it's a matter of urgency.

46:22Olivia Reingold:Yeah, I've heard this talking point often from conservative commentators that, you know, oh, we hope Zoran is mayor. We hope he's mayor because he's going to make our job easy because we're going to run on him in 2026 during the midterms. He's going to make our job easy for the presidential race in 2028. I think that's totally misguided. I mean, it could be true if he gets in and then is just completely delinquent as a mayor and just lets the city fall into disrepair. But he is a really serious person. And at least if he manages to please his constituents in New York. I mean, I just think that's totally, totally misguided.

47:07Olivia Reingold:It's also how people in 2016 responded to Trump, though. You know, they said, like, yeah, we hope that he's the nominee because or that's why they thought they had it in the bag in 2016. That's why they thought Hillary was was so her win was so certain. And they obviously came to regret that. And there's just so much overlap in the way that people discount Zoran and the way that they discounted Trump. there's this, there's always discussion about the donors, you know, like, oh, well, the donors are never going to get behind Zoran. Well, he hasn't needed them. You know, it really, in many ways, has been a grassroots campaign.

47:49Olivia Reingold:Of course, now he has many super PACs behind him. And increasingly, he does have institutional force behind him. But yeah, he, he, it's a populist movement. And so, of course, the establishment doesn't take it seriously and is discounting it. But I think to me what this represents, it's not just about the meteoric rise of Zoran Mamdani. I think it's also a story about the death of the establishment, too. I just read a report that Americans are outliving their retirement savings, leaving them in a doomed financial position. That's because their retirement has been set up the same as before, using the old default strategies that haven't changed since the 1970s.

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49:57Olivia Reingold:i you say take aoc for example yeah great campaigner very charismatic gets elected but she's not in an executive position mamdani as mayor is running one of the biggest cities in the world and his success or failure will affect the brand quite significantly. Yeah. So the challenge for someone who is promising people a lot of free stuff is you have to actually then deliver the free stuff. And one of the aspects of this that's worth probably delving into as well is how much experience does he have running things? Well, just to get that out of the way, not very much. For a time, a lot of his resume was propped up by his parents.

50:47Olivia Reingold:After college, he actually had a brief wrapping career that was quite successful. I don't know if you guys knew about this. So yeah, in terms of managing experience. What's the biggest thing he's run? I don't think he has run anything. He hasn't run anything. So this is where I think the difficulty comes in because Trump demonstrably knows how to run big organizations. Right. He has done his entire life. With Mamdani, he clearly is very talented at campaigning, but he's not going into a Bernie Sanders AOC kind of role. He's going in to run a major city, and that requires a skill set that we don't really know if he has.

51:33Olivia Reingold:Right. Right? Yeah. You seem keen to correct me, so please do. Well, I guess because his credentials, he doesn't have typical credentials, but he was a really successful organizer. He helped campaigns in the past and was meticulous about this is the exact block that we need to target. And so he has been a really successful leader in the progressive movement. I'm not trying to disparage him a little bit. I'm making a very different point, which is leading a campaign does not really require a huge amount of dealing with the reality of trade-offs. Totally. So, for example, increasing taxes is a thing that comes with a bunch of first, second, third order consequences.

52:23And what I'm saying is I understand where some of those conservative commentators you mentioned are coming from because their thinking is this guy's going to get elected. I'm going to condense it into he doesn't know what he's doing. He's going to ruin everything. That's going to be great for us as conservatives. Right. Do you think that's likely?

52:47Olivia Reingold:I don't. I think that unless his administration, if he were to win, is just a total flop. I just think so much of his success is based on vision. And I think that even if he fails to accomplish his agenda, I think that his supporters are going to blame that on the establishment. I think they're just going to frame it in terms of, I don't know how much of the blame he'll get, I guess, if he does end up failing. But I guess I would also say that I just think that this is the future of the Democratic Party, regardless of what happens with Zoran Mamdani. I say that because in San Francisco, there was that progressive DA, Chesa Boudin, who he was ousted.

53:40Olivia Reingold:These ideas, not all of them have died and they just keep bubbling up and bubbling up. But the social justice element, I feel like that chapter has closed. But what hasn't is really what Bernie kicked off like in 2016. That hasn't gone anywhere. Like we had this moderate. I mean, I'm not quite sure how to characterize Joe Biden. But, you know, there was the Biden presidency, which was not like a DSA vibe at all. And yet this, as income inequality just continues to grow and grow and grow, this isn't going anywhere. So, yeah, I don't know that Zoran Mamdani is the future of the Democratic Party, but whoever is, is going to have the same populist energy.

54:29And let's talk about the Democratic Socialists of America. Yeah. What is the difference between a democratic socialist and a communist? Whoa.

54:42Olivia Reingold:I guess because a democratic socialist is slightly less revolutionary in the sense that they believe in making change within a democratic system. They believe in getting elected. Yeah, exactly. Right. Exactly. Anything else? I think that in some instances they're more comfortable with private ownership. They believe in some measure of private property. As I'm thinking about it now, no, they do want to dismantle capitalism. What does that mean? What does it mean to dismantle? I would love to ask the DSA that. When you read their platform, it talks a lot about tearing down systems. It's not quite clear to me what they would replace it with.

55:37Well, this is what I was getting at when I was talking about Mamdani specifically is it is one thing to organize a very effective campaign, which is about defunding, dismantling, giving things, right? Right. But then all of that stuff has another dimension to it, which is once you've dismantled things, you have to build things. Once you've given free stuff to people, you have to find the money somewhere for that thing to be given to people. And you can do that in the short term and do the magic tricks. But over time, you get to a position where it just becomes unsustainable.

56:15Olivia Reingold:Yeah. So that's kind of what I'm getting at. No, it's fair. I think if you go back to 2016, maybe the similarities continue where Trump, it was so much vision and not a lot of practicality. And his first administration, I mean, the scandals just couldn't stop coming. It was very disorganized. I think he regrets a lot of the appointments he made. And then the second administration, he really came in and now is accomplishing his agenda. But the vision and the spirit of what he represents didn't go anywhere. So I'm just not convinced. Yeah, I think that there, of course, all signs point to Zoran struggling to accomplish his agenda.

57:07Olivia Reingold:But I just think that until income inequality is addressed, I think that the appetite for someone like him only grows as well. It's populism all the way down. Yeah. Yeah. Which is why the policies, the policies don't really matter, I think. Ultimately, I really think it's vibes, the two vibes of class grievance masked with positivity. I think that that is why people are supporting Zoran, because they're very angry about income inequality. And it's almost, he's almost giving people permission to, it's like as if MAGA wasn't associated with bigotry and, you know, tearing people down. That's how people on the left think of MAGA, at least.

57:58Olivia Reingold:It's as if he's giving people permission to just be completely angry about income inequality, but they're not bullies. Like, the way that MAGA is portrayed, it's really a progressive anger. Yeah, it's a righteous anger. Righteous, yeah, that's a great word for it. Yeah, is probably how they would frame it. And I think it's important to say this as well. I was in Venezuela in 99 when Chavez came to power and Chavez won a general election in Venezuela by a landslide and it was legitimate. Now, he then went on and was absolutely awful and fixed elections and whatever else. But the reason people vote for the Mamdani's of this world is because they feel that they've been failed by the establishment.

58:46And in many cases that they have and they have no other option but to go for a radical. I think we need to be honest about this.

58:53Olivia Reingold:I think so, too. And like I said, I'm not really convinced that Zoran is the future of the Democratic Party. I think in some ways it's because I don't know if his ambition, I don't really think he's someone that would enjoy being president. But whoever is, whether it's AOC, I mean, Bernie, he's getting up there. But I really think that we're on this clash of the establishment against populism. Again, it's literally 2016 all over again, except I think we're finally hitting the tipping point where the populists have more power. where you're seeing people like Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York, where she is endorsing Zoran because she needs Zoran's support.

59:42Olivia Reingold:She has more to gain from endorsing Zoran than Zoran has to gain. And look, one of the things that populism does, and it's very good at, and Nigel Farage in our own country is a maestro of, is pushing issues that were once seen as fringed by the establishment and making the mainstream and making the establishment tackle them. So in a way, if Zoran pushes the idea of wealth inequality and actually makes the left, right and center have discussions and start to implement policies to tackle it. Yeah, yeah. I mean, you've already seen this since 2016, where now even the Republicans have come to accept a lot of these things that were seen as only being elements of the Democratic Party, like support for Medicare and Medicaid and elements of the social safety net, like Social Security.

1:00:41Olivia Reingold:Now, even Republicans know that to campaign against those things is really a death sentence. So I think that this populist bent is taking over both parties and the yardstick has really been moved in a lot of ways. I mean, look at the issue of Israel and Palestine. That has already shifted drastically. So it's hard to tell who's driving the ship. Is it people like Zoran who are moving the yardstick or does he just reflected. I don't know, but so much has changed in terms of what would actually be, what would be a liability for a politician now arguably is a strength. Like these, I feel like it's based on my reporting, based on reading all of his tweets, I think it's fair to characterize his politics as anti-Israel.

1:01:39Olivia Reingold:He's really struggled to answer whether or not he believes that Israel has the right to exist as a Jewish state. Actually, he has implied, no, that he has a problem with Israel, just like he has a problem with Saudi Arabia. But he... This would have been a huge problem for any politician only a few years ago. And now this is actually... an asset you know cuomo when um leading up to the primary there were so many things that he thought were going to help him like all these attack ads being you know calling zoran a socialist or saying he's anti an anti-semite you know that's what a lot of cuomo supporters did to try and attack Mom Donnie.

1:02:31Olivia Reingold:And people who saw the attack ads, I think if anything, it informed them about Zoron and then they became Zoron voters. Yeah. That's the interesting thing about that is socialism because we're here in Texas. We got in an Uber and we met a guy who was driving, who was Spanish. And we asked him why did he come to America? And you'd never hear this in Europe because people don't talk like this, but he was like, I don't know, man, just socialism isn't for me. And this is in many ways the American, historically speaking, at least the American attitude or at least the prevailing attitude towards socialism.

1:03:16But I think the current Democratic Party has moved in a very different direction, hasn't it?

1:03:21Olivia Reingold:Yeah. There was polling I saw recently from Gallup only a few months ago, it was done in August, where more Democrats actually have a favorable view of socialism than capitalism. So the number that have a favorable view of capitalism, it's something like 40 to 46%. And then the percentage that have a favorable view of socialism is 66%. And what do you think they mean by socialism? Like what is it that they support? What is it that they like? With the definitions, yeah, precision is important here. What is it that they like? Well, because, see, if you're from Eastern Europe, when you think of socialism, you think of the Soviet Union.

1:04:08Olivia Reingold:Right. Right? Right. Because it was the union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Yeah. I don't think American Democrats won the Soviet Union, right? So what is it that they believe? Well, I guess because socialism has never been executed here, it's really just a vision of a utopia. You know, we don't have the memory, the recent memory of socialism and the failures of it. And so I think when most Americans picture socialism, they're like, I'm going to get to see my same doctor. and it's going to be free. Or I'm going to be able to afford a modest house, but the house that I want. I think they assume that, I guess what I'm describing is really a utopia.

1:05:06Well, I mean, having a house and seeing a doctor doesn't seem that utopian to me.

1:05:11Olivia Reingold:Right, right, right. Sorry, I'm not trying to be a dick. No, you're right, you're right. I guess they picture America, but like a fulfillment of the American promise. And free buses and the other, you know, free childcare and all these other things. I think they probably just picture like a more functional economy, like the way that the American dream is supposed to work, where the days when you could be a blue-collar worker and you actually could support, you could have two, three kids, you could take an annual vacation, you owned your home. I think that... Your wife could be a homemaker, et cetera, right?

1:05:52Olivia Reingold:Yeah, I think that that is what the draw... It's not so much maybe a draw towards socialism, but just a sense that capitalism... Life's hot. Life's hot. ...is not working. Right. And so it's people in search of an answer. So, yeah, I think you're right. I'm not convinced that I think Americans, I mean, Americans, I feel like do love to work. I think most would prefer to work if that work could afford them the American dream. So I think that that's more what that data reveals. I don't think it's like people are so lazy, they just want free things. I think that maybe that's where it's gotten because there is so much anger.

1:06:35Olivia Reingold:But yeah, it's funny. I think you're right that they just want an economy that works. Before Olivia answers the final question at the end of the interview, make sure to head over to our sub stack. The link is in the description where you'll be able to see this. Do you think it's likely that there will be a significant relocation of particularly financial industry elsewhere? And if so, where are they likely to go? Do you think that the mayoral polls and the probable result in the NYC are a backlash response to the presidential elections? A big city is moving ideology in a different direction than the rest of the country, or is it in sync?

1:07:17What do you make of the CBS Free Press merger?

1:07:23Olivia, great having you on. Thank you for coming. We're going to ask you questions from our supporters in a second. but before we do what's the one thing we're not talking about that we shouldn't be gosh don't say

1:07:33Olivia Reingold:the shirt what is the one thing oh my gosh i don't okay am i allowed to think for a second okay thank you you're allowed to think olivia we're not under socialism yet um okay i'm gonna go it's a little wonky but ranked choice voting arguably that is the system of voting in which you rank candidates in order of preference. That's how we got Zoran. So initially, this was a system that New York instituted. New Yorkers actually voted to vote that way in primaries. Sorry, now it's getting so nerdy because it's primaries, not the general election. But the idea with that, it was this progressive idea that it's actually going to help elevate moderate voices.

1:08:17Olivia Reingold:And yet, we ended up with Zoran Mamdani. And so New York is not the only place that has ranked choice voting. Burlington, Vermont has ranked choice voting. And you're probably going to see a lot of people advocate for it after they saw that, you know, it was able to elevate Zoran. All right. Thank you so much for coming on. Head on over to triggerpod.co.uk where we continue the conversation with your questions. are jews in new york taking precautionary steps to begin hiding their identity as they do in paris and london ahead of mamdani's expected win

1:09:14Thank you.