In short
Canada-U.S. trade war escalation (tariffs, retaliation, and possible off-ramps) and how it intersects with U.S. midterm elections and the Iran conflict.
Guests (CBC correspondents)
Katie Simpson (co-host, Washington correspondent); Willie Lowry (co-host, Washington correspondent); Paul Hunter (CBC Washington correspondent). Backgrounds: U.S. political/trade reporting from Washington; Lowry and Simpson describe being on calls with Trump administration officials; Hunter reports on Canadian public reaction while hosting CBC’s As It Happens.
Key claims
No quick off-ramp; tariffs and retaliation are politically driven; Trump’s team is ready to escalate; de-escalation may depend on midterms. Iran war prolongation worsens costs (gas/oil) and reshapes Strait of Hormuz shipping.
Notable examples
July 20 Trump tariff proclamations; Aug 21 Canada walking away from talks; Aug 27 renaming Lake Ontario to “Lake America”; Canada counter-tariffs hitting border states (Ohio/Michigan/Maine/Texas) and potential Senate races (Iowa/Texas/Michigan).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOCurrent U.S.-Canada Trade Tensions
0:30 to 1:12
Discussion on recent U.S. tariffs and the implications for Canada.
“Hey everyone, I'm Katie Simpson, one of the co-hosts of Two Blocks from the White House.”
Summer Reflections on U.S.-Canada Trade
1:12 to 3:06
Hosts reflect on significant moments from the summer related to U.S.-Canada trade.
“We're making eye contact with each other.”
Escalation of Trade War
3:06 to 6:02
A detailed look at the escalation of tensions and specific trade actions taken.
“We're CBC's Washington Correspondents, two blocks from the White House.”
Impact of Trump's Actions on Canada
6:02 to 11:28
Discussion on how Trump's decisions have personally affected Canadians.
“A la what we're seeing with Bombardier right now, President Trump threatening to essentially cancel or prevent Bombardier from selling planes in the U.S.”
Looking Ahead: The Future of Tariffs
11:28 to 14:00
Analyzing the potential future of U.S.-Canada tariffs and political implications.
“But this this was like insult to injury.”
Tariff Escalation and Canada
14:00 to 15:10
Learn about the challenges Canada faces regarding U.S. tariffs and escalation.
“And the predictions I'm getting are that it's not looking good.”
The Difficulty of Negotiation with Trump
15:10 to 17:10
Explore the complexities of negotiating with the Trump administration during tariffs.
“Trump's brand is de-escalation means total victory and nothing short of that.”
Midterm Elections and Senate Gains
17:10 to 19:10
Discuss potential gains for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections.
“are the loudest in the Oval Office when they're around the president talking about whatever is going on here.”
Key Senate Races: Iowa, Texas, and Michigan
19:10 to 22:30
Analyze critical Senate races that could impact Democratic chances.
“I was going to pick, I would have picked Michigan.”
Impact of Tariffs on Swing States
22:30 to 23:40
Understand how Canadian counter-tariffs are affecting key swing states.
“If they lose Michigan, Democrats, it makes it a little bit harder.”
Show all 13 chapters
The War in Iran and Its Effects
23:40 to 26:20
Examine how the ongoing war in Iran affects Trump's administration.
“What does your crystal ball say about that in the coming months?”
Economic Implications of Oil Prices
26:20 to 28:00
Discuss how rising oil prices impact Americans and the economy.
“someone who's like just trying to like make ends meet and needs to fill up their tank to get to and from work.”
Discussion on Trump's Presidency and Upcoming Elections
28:00 to 28:53
The hosts reflect on the state of polling and the forthcoming midterm elections amid Trump's presidency.
“And the polls, the major networks all kind of reassessed how they do polling post 2016.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Katie Simpson:Canada is complicated and Alberta, well, it has opinions. I'm Kathleen Petty, the host of West of Centre. If you're wondering about separation or the many ways Alberta marches to its own drum, our show will help you understand what's going on out west. Tune in for a no-nonsense conversation about the politics that drive this place. Find and follow West of Centre wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast.
0:32Paul Hunter:Hey everyone, I'm Katie Simpson, one of the co-hosts of Two Blocks from the White House. This episode is dropping at a critical moment in the Canada-U.S. relationship. Late Tuesday night, we learned that the Trump administration is planning to ban the import of most Canadian alcohol products. It says billions of dollars worth. And it's going to change some of the tariffs already in place. This happened after we recorded our conversation, but it really illustrates the point we were trying to make. There doesn't appear to be an easy or quick off-ramp and that Canadians need to brace for more challenges ahead.
1:08Paul Hunter:Have a listen. Katie, Willie, what's going on? We're making eye contact with each other. It's uncomfortable. It feels a little weird.
1:18Willy Lowry:I'm feeling all awkward. First time in weeks we've been together in the same room. This is fantastic, though. Good to see both of you. Good summers? Yes? Yes. Yes, yes, yes. Dare I say too short? Too short. It always is, though, isn't it? Look, I think everyone listening right now doesn't need us to explain that it wasn't exactly a nice, quiet summer when it comes to U.S. politics. But let's get a little reminder.
1:39Katie Simpson:A senior administration official says the United States will put in place 50 percent tariffs, plural, on three sets of Canadian imports. A lot of people say, who's the toughest one to deal with? Is it China, sir? Is it Vietnam? I said, no, actually it's Canada. The U.S. is pausing new 50 % tariffs on Canadian goods. President Trump made that announcement fewer than two hours before the midnight deadline. He says the tariffs will be on hold as a deal is being finalized. Unfortunately, Prime Minister Carney did walk away. They were given the opportunity for a great trade deal and they didn't want it.
2:14Katie Simpson:And it looks like it's for political reasons.
2:16Paul Hunter:We were not satisfied with what was offered or the durability of what was offered, a key point. We don't want to make gains in the short term that then are taken away a few months later or a year later. Canada's retaliatory tariffs have officially gone into effect, impacting roughly$20 billion worth of U.S. goods. A trade war escalated between Canada and the U.S. and the relationship between the two countries further deteriorated.
2:41Katie Simpson:As we look ahead to the fall, there's no end in sight for the trade deadlock. and a lot of other issues are looming over the White House, too.
2:49Willy Lowry:I'm looking at you midterms, right? So this week, as students settle into classes again and legislatures get back to work, we're asking, what did the summer of 26 say about American politics? And what are we predicting for the fall?
3:04Paul Hunter:I'm Katie Simpson.
3:05Willy Lowry:I'm Willie Lowry. And I'm Paul Hunter. We're CBC's Washington Correspondents, two blocks from the White House. So we each picked a summer moment to talk about. And shocker, they're all about U.S.-Canada trade. A very serious matter, of course. Katie, you chose the day July 20th. President Donald Trump signed the proclamations that would impose new 50 % tariffs on Canada. What stands out to you from that day in particular?
3:35Paul Hunter:So this is a day that a new front opened in the trade war. And it really is the catalyst for this moment we are in now. And the reason I sort of singled this out as the moment that stands out to me from this summer is that what it revealed about the White House in this moment and how this was a real threat. So often Donald Trump makes all kinds of threats and he speaks with such hyperbole, whether it's on social media or it's, you know, at one of his public events. And this this was different. And that's why it stands out. And it illustrates that the the trade representatives office in the Trump administration, they are ready to escalate the already things were already in a bad situation as it was.
4:14Paul Hunter:Things weren't really moving. It was very stagnant at the time. And this escalated the trade war and put us into this difficult moment that both Canada and the U.S. are in right now.
4:24Willy Lowry:Stuff's getting real. It's getting real.
4:26Paul Hunter:And I'll never forget. So reporters were we've talked about this on the podcast before, but reporters were given a heads up that there was going to be a phone call with Trump administration officials to talk about what this plan was. You were on that call. I was on that call and what really stood out to me was this was specific. This was strategic. This was a shot fired across the bow at Canada because the Trump administration is really frustrated with Canada's retaliation efforts. Because remember, this has all been tit for tat ramp up all the way into this moment. You know, the Trump administration throws tariffs on Canada over a wide range of issues.
5:03Paul Hunter:Canada, yes, gets some exemptions, but Canada retaliated in the provinces. Some of them, they decided to impose booze bans or other forms of retaliation as well. And it illustrated that Canada's response really hit a nerve with the Trump administration, which is kind of the point. The reason you retaliate is because you want to create political pressure to create change, to get the Trump administration to pull back. When I was listening to the U.S. trade official going into very specific detail about all of these different industries, and because the industries did not seem to have any sort of connection or correlation, you knew that there was always a specific reason why.
5:42Paul Hunter:Going after a one employer town in different parts of, you know, Quebec or British Columbia, those kinds of things. And that is why it really stands out to me as the catalyst for this moment and really the escalation that put things at this new low in terms of the Canada-U.S. relationship.
6:01Katie Simpson:And I would say sometimes, especially when these things come from the president, they can feel a little erratic, perhaps not that well thought out. A la what we're seeing with Bombardier right now, President Trump threatening to essentially cancel or prevent Bombardier from selling planes in the U.S. This coming up as tensions with Canada, of course, very high. It feels a little knee jerk.
6:26Paul Hunter:Because it was specific.
6:28Katie Simpson:Specificity of the various things.
6:29Paul Hunter:And they're trying to inflict harm. Often, you know, President Donald Trump speaks with so much hyperbole and that we don't want this or we want this and this person has to pay or whatever the threat is. But this was we've done our homework. We know how this is going to hurt. Here are the technical specifications. Here is the proclamation and off we go. And so because that meant it's very real and that meant that it was a new serious threat that has escalated everything into now.
6:58Willy Lowry:And Willie, you wanted to talk about August 21st, and that was the day that Canada walked away from the negotiations with the U.S. What's your sense? Did this move take U.S. officials by surprise? And why are you still thinking about that date? It's a big one.
7:12Katie Simpson:I think it was the moment where Carney ultimately faced this decision, whether or not to acquiesce to U.S. demands to make a deal or not, or kind of to live by his words that he spoke at Davos. And I think, obviously, at this point, he chose to live by the words he spoke at Davos to take a different tact, to pivot, a perilous tact at that. But one that I think he views in the long run is the one that is in the best interest of the country, even if it's not going to be in the best interest of the country short term. It feels like in the grand arc of Canadian history, this could be a really important turning point for good or for bad.
8:00Katie Simpson:So for me, that's why I picked this moment. And I do think it caught U.S. officials by surprise. From what we've heard publicly, they really did think they were close to a deal. I do think they genuinely believe that they had given the Canadians a better deal than they had given everybody else. And up until this point, you had the UK, the EU all signing deals that were less than ideal from their perspective. So I think the Trump administration assumed that Canada would fall in line.
8:33Paul Hunter:And we're learning a little bit more about sort of the what went down and how things sort of blew up during that week. You know, Jameson Greer and Dominic LeBlanc, they, you know, stood and shook hands. And everyone thought that on that Tuesday of the week that the talks broke down, that there was going to be that agreement. And they shook hands and Trump extended his tariff deadline to ensure that people could hammer out the details. And it's between that Tuesday to the Friday of that week when the Canadians got the specifics of the deal. That's when, at least from the Canadian version of events, that's when it's like, wait a minute, this is not what we agreed to.
9:08Paul Hunter:The Trump administration, they have a very similar version of events saying Canada had accepted certain things. But when it came down to the details time that Canada also shifted what it was expecting and just the breakdown to get to that moment where everything escalated once again.
9:24Katie Simpson:I look forward to reading 72 Hours in August, perhaps by Katie Smith.
9:29Paul Hunter:And Paul, you chose August 27th, and that is the day that Donald Trump signed an executive order to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America. There has been a lot of blowback about that move from Canadians and in Canada. What have you noticed about the reaction on both sides?
9:47Willy Lowry:Yeah, you know, and obviously trade related, trade adjacent, I guess, because it's all part of the bigger battling that's going on. I mean, I was in Canada when that happened. I was hosting As It Happens that week, and it was the only thing people were talking about. There's no denying and there's no underplaying that the economic impact of the trade war is what, at the end of the day, really matters. But okay, now it's personal. Now you're mocking or trying, you know, from the U.S. perspective only because it doesn't apply anywhere else in the world. You're changing the name of Lake Ontario? Like, what are you doing?
10:17Willy Lowry:On top of, remember, the submarine comment and the other things that happened around that time mocking the military. It's like it's now personal. Funnily enough, on As It Happens That Week, we were interviewing the fellow that came up with the Canada's Not For Sale t-shirts. And now he's making ball caps that just say Lake Ontario. And they were flying off the shelves. You know, to your point earlier, Willie, it's like, as some have noted, there's a reason that the Iran war isn't over. It's because of the resilience of the Iranians, right? And this is a test of the resilience of Canadians now.
10:47Willy Lowry:And everything that I saw when I was up there after the Lake Ontario thing happened said to me, resilience is strong. That there will be pain, but people are willing to put up with it because this is just wrong. And we heard Blue Rodeo playing at Ontario Place that week. And they've got the song that name checks Lake Ontario and the crowd went nuts.
11:25Willy Lowry:It was a moment on top of, again, the economics of it all is what matters at the end of the day. But this this was like insult to injury.
11:33Katie Simpson:And I think it spoke to really how Canadians view Trump. Trump. In so many ways, it was him leaning into all of his worst tendencies, right?
11:46Willy Lowry:Yeah. Sorry, I'll say one other thing, not to go on about it, but I think your question, Katie, was about on both sides of the border. So I'm freshly back at work today. I've spent a number of weeks in Canada on vacation and doing some work. So first, I walked out the door this morning and my next-door neighbor sees me and comes up and is just, Paul, I wanted to find you. I'm so sorry. This is not like over the top. This has been part of the conversation. You forgot to water your plants? Exactly. Sorry, your plants are all dead. But this is not our country. Like the most emphatic I've ever heard that.
12:19Willy Lowry:And please don't feel this is this kind of stuff, you know, because people here are well aware of the impact this must be having on their Canadian friends and cousins and brothers and sisters.
12:30Paul Hunter:And Washington's a very progressive place for Canadians, for Canadians who might not know that the political demographic here is like 95 percent.
12:39Katie Simpson:You have Republicans who register Democrats so they can actually vote in municipal politics. The only MAGA people you're going to find in D.C. are tourists, effectively speaking.
12:47Paul Hunter:Or staffers. Or staffers. And they probably don't even live in D.C. They might live out in the suburbs.
12:50Katie Simpson:I do want to give Jean Chrétien a shout out because he had a great response to the lake naming recently where he said, you know, Lake Ontario doesn't care. It's a lake.
13:01Willy Lowry:It's a bike.
Read the full transcript
13:31Katie Simpson:nonsense conversation about the politics that drive this place. Find and follow West of Centre wherever you get your podcasts. All right.
13:41Willy Lowry:So that is our not so quick recap of this very eventful summer. Let's turn our attention out of the fall. I mean, what's coming ahead here, right? As we record this episode on Tuesday, Katie, Canada's counter tariffs have just come into effect. Where does this go from here? How does this impasse get ended? Is it even possible at this point?
13:59Paul Hunter:So I've basically spent the final days of my vacation on the phone with people who are in the know, people who deal with this kind of stuff to just get a better sense of where things sort of stand right now. And the predictions I'm getting are that it's not looking good. It's not looking good for any hope that anything is sort of going to come together in any sort of quick fashion. So we are clearly in a period of escalation. And here's why that this is going to be a difficult go. The next big thing that Canada can hope for in terms of, you know, what might get the Americans to sort of de-escalate in this moment is the midterm elections.
14:39Paul Hunter:And we can talk about that and the impact there, because if the Canadian tariffs cause enough pain that, you know, Republicans start to hear about it at the door, that would be considered a victory. But the concern is all of the rumblings, there are reports, you know, about while the Americans are considering this retaliatory action, could they ban certain Canadian products, all those kinds of things. And so it doesn't look like the Trump administration is in a position right now where it wants to de-escalate and wants an off-ramp. That's also not Trump's brand.
15:10Willy Lowry:Trump's brand is de-escalation means total victory and nothing short of that.
15:14Paul Hunter:Yeah. And so that's why things are very difficult. And a couple of people who are old hands at all of this pointed out to me that there could be an off ramp because oftentimes out of the most difficult moments, you see movement. taken back to the summer before the Canadians, Mexicans and Americans reached a new NAFTA deal, which is now Kuzma. You know, the Americans had escalated. They had put tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, just like they have this time. And it looked like things were really, really bad. Canada, you know, hit back with counter tariffs, dollar for dollar, all of those kinds of things.
15:49Paul Hunter:And eventually there was sort of enough pain that it got to a point where people could have a conversation. But what I'm going to say is here's why, even though that was difficult at that time, and I was reminded by people who worked in and around the Canadian team that dealt with President Trump in his first term, going forward, this time is going to be so much harder for the Canadian team to try and get the Trump administration to sort of de-escalate and try to reach a deal. And there's a couple of reasons why. In Trump's first term, there were people who were more moderate who believe the Kennedy-U.S.
16:24Paul Hunter:relationship was of value and at least a value to American businesses. I'm told Gary Cohn, Jared Kushner, even though Jared Kushner would talk tough, the Canadians saw him as an ally who would sort of step in and say, hey, the president's in a really good mood right now. Perhaps Prime Minister Trudeau wants to give him a call and sort of like push things ahead before things had completely deteriorated. This time around, it's very different. You have Jameson Greer, who is the U.S. trade representative, who is a true believer in the tariff agenda. However, he's a trade professional. He understands the law.
17:01Paul Hunter:And while he is a believer in the Trump agenda, he at least has a very respectful relationship with his Canadian counterparts. But then you have the people that have Trump's ear and the people who are the loudest in the Oval Office when they're around the president talking about whatever is going on here. You have Peter Navarro, who was a factor in the first Trump 1.0. So he's still in there. And then Howard Lutnick, who is unpredictable. And because these folks are so unpredictable, which the Americans would argue is an advantage for them, being unpredictable in a trade negotiation is a great advantage if your opponent doesn't know what's coming.
17:34Paul Hunter:But because there aren't those moderates around the president who might say, hey, this relationship is of value to American businesses, it's going to be harder. Now, I sort of mentioned it, but Paul, you want to talk about the impact of all of this on the midterm elections that are coming up in early November. What are you watching for in particular?
17:55Willy Lowry:The look on Willie's face as Paul's about to pull out a map.
18:02Willy Lowry:I love a map. My head hurts. This is a new map. It says new map.
18:06Paul Hunter:I love that.
18:08Willy Lowry:But you know what this is? See all the red? A point we've kind of made before is that for the Senate, I think it's kind of a given that Democrats will probably win back the House. So let's park that over there. So the question is the Senate. And a year ago, we never would have been really having this conversation. A few months ago, we would not have thought it would be as potentially, I don't want to say easy, but doable for Democrats because there are.
18:29Paul Hunter:I still think it's going to be so close. It's going to be close.
18:31Willy Lowry:But we would not have even said it would be close six, eight, nine, 12 months ago. You know what I mean? So Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina are all possible gains for Democrats. North Carolina is kind of a given. I think Maine is problematic, but I'm going to talk about three. Look, you want to take a look at my map, Willie.
18:53Katie Simpson:I think I'm seeing three that are very interesting, so I want to hear what your three are.
18:57Willy Lowry:I'm going to talk about just three because it could go on forever. There are a lot of paths now for Democrats, right? So they have to gain four. Got to get to 51. I'm going to talk about Texas, Iowa, and Michigan. I was going to pick, I would have picked Michigan. I can talk about Iowa first. And Josh Turek. He's the Democrat running for the Senate in Iowa. Paralympian. He's won a couple of gold medals. You know what he did on the weekend? He shotgunned a beer. Do you know what shotgunning a beer is? I know a shotgunning a beer. Look who you're talking to. Do you want us to like, should we like do one right now?
19:31Paul Hunter:Do you want me to take a knee and do it like a Smirnoff Ice?
19:33Katie Simpson:Is when you put a little hole in the bottom of the can, you open the top. Can we actually get that in here? Is this going, are you live streaming this?
19:41Willy Lowry:All right. Okay, ready? Go State. Go State.
19:56Some made it on the shirt, but now you got to vote for me.
20:00Willy Lowry:I do. Iowans are losing their minds over the fact that a Democrat shotgunned a beer.
20:08Paul Hunter:Wait, do Democrats not drink alcohol? Evidently not.
20:11Willy Lowry:And this is not going to be the tipping point by any means in Iowa. But it makes, I think the reason people are freaking out is because it made him a real person. He's not just some politician coming in and a Democrat who doesn't know anything about life in rural America, you know. But above and beyond that, back to the effect of the Iran war and the closure of the strait, they talk about it's the economy stupid. Well, it's in Iowa, it's the cost of farm inputs, higher fertilizer prices, higher diesel prices, things like that are it's affecting farmers and farmers is who really matters at the end of the day in Iowa.
20:46Willy Lowry:So that's so that's a possible gain in a place where I think Democrats a year ago would not have dreamed of winning. One of my favorite places for Democrats is Texas. And the countless times they've got to the altar only to be. Story as old as time. Looking at you, Beto O 'Rourke. Exactly. But this time and we've talked about James Tallarico and Ken Paxton. But, you know, we've got a Tallarico for Democrats, progressive Christian.
21:10Paul Hunter:Shotgun spears.
21:11Willy Lowry:Shotgun spears. He may well. He may well. Let's be honest. and Trump's endorsed candidate, Ken Paxton, which took everybody by surprise when Trump came out for him because Paxton has been indicted on fraud charges, settled out of court. He was impeached by the state legislature in Texas, but he was acquitted by the Senate. So he's got all these negatives and yet he's a Republican and he's up against a Democrat and Democrats always in recent decades lose, but Tallarico has a real shot. And if so, that would be massive, not only for the Senate, but it would be a harbinger for the 2028. Texas is about Democrats in cities and Republicans in the rest of the state, but there have been a lot of people moving, not least from California to Texas because there's jobs and other things.
21:57Willy Lowry:And they've been in Dallas and in Houston that they represent votes and Tallarico has been getting big crowds. The problem for Democrats is if they lose a place where they already have a Senator and that's, you know, effectively speaking, that's Michigan and the candidate they've got there that we've talked a little little bit about, Abdul Al-Sayed, first Muslim nominee for a major party in a statewide election, keyword Muslim in the eyes of many in Michigan. You've got a lot of support for that reason, but also a lot of negatives. He's spoken out strongly against Israel. That's rubbed some people the wrong way.
22:27Willy Lowry:A strong candidate on the Republican side, Mike Rogers, long-time Republican congressman. If they lose Michigan, Democrats, it makes it a little bit harder. But man, oh man, back to that map. There's a lot of ways, you know, Alaska, Texas, Ohio, complicated candidates in Maine, but it's looking possible, I think is the short answer.
22:46Paul Hunter:And you know what, Paul, on that map, you know where some of the places where Canada's counter tariffs are hitting the hardest?
22:52Willy Lowry:Exactly. The border states, Ohio, Michigan. Maine, Texas. Texas too. You're right. Exactly.
22:58Paul Hunter:Because the Carney government wants to put pressure on the Trump administration. And how do you do that? You go after the states that are either swing states or if Republicans are out door knocking, trying to, you know, convince people to vote for them, and they hear from voters complaining about the cost of living, complaining about tariffs, those kinds of things, perhaps, maybe, maybe that will lead to some change.
23:20Katie Simpson:You have to say, though, if the Democrats aren't able to pull off a few of these, including Michigan, but especially Maine, I mean, what an own goal that would have been, that would be.
23:34Willy Lowry:That's why they have elections, to see. Willie, trade war does seem to be a major preoccupation with Donald Trump, but he's got a lot more on his plate right now, such as the aforementioned war in Iran, for example. Six months on. Six months drags on and on. Who knew? What does your crystal ball say about that in the coming months?
23:55Katie Simpson:Well, yes, who knew? I would say pretty much every Middle East analyst who's paid any attention to the region over the last few decades. Listen, I think the longer this war goes, the worse it is for Trump and this administration. And what an own goal, right? This is a president who campaigned on an end of forever wars, and he has started a war that was supposed to last max six weeks, eight weeks. And now we're six months in price of oil,$99 a barrel, price of gas,$4.15. And these are things that really matters to Americans. This is what matters ultimately to the American people, to farmers, right, who can't fill up their machinery, their trucks.
24:40Katie Simpson:So I just find it, it's so emblematic of this administration. It has started something and you alluded to it earlier, Paul. The thing about conflict, the thing about war is both sides get a vote. And when you're Iran and you're even if it's a regime that is, you know, got terrible politics, it is fighting for its existence. And that is perhaps as powerful a motivator as exists. And not to mention, the conflict basically has completely redrawn the Strait of Hormuz, redrawn how international shipping will operate in that part of the world. Because now it seems no matter how this conflict ends, Iran will get a vote with how ships navigate the Strait of Hormuz.
25:29Katie Simpson:Like so important to point out that prior to February 28th, that did not exist.
25:34Paul Hunter:So one thing on the flip side of high gas prices, I was reading an analysis piece this morning in one of the American newspapers talking about why is it that the stock markets continue to post such massive gains in this time when all of these things are happening that you would think that investors would be losing confidence. And one of the things they talked about was how the price of oil has gone up. And, yep, that hits consumers pretty hard. But at the same time, oil companies, that's one of the reasons why. I know that right now the sort of drive behind the market has to do a lot with AI and these companies making these massive numbers.
26:09Paul Hunter:And that is like the main driver there. But another thing to keep in mind is that the higher price of oil means higher profits and that it's something that on the flip side of things, while it might be more expensive for, you know, someone who's someone who's not even involved in the market, someone who's like just trying to like make ends meet and needs to fill up their tank to get to and from work. And so that that is obviously a challenge for voters who are in that bucket. But there are others who are watching things sort of change on the markets and watching, you know, things rise that exists in this moment.
26:40Katie Simpson:That's a really good point. And I haven't looked recently, but the last time I checked a few months ago, The 401ks were trending pretty significantly steeply upwards. Again, that's people's savings, right? So that is something that they care about for sure. Yeah.
26:54Willy Lowry:And yet, at the same time, Trump's approval ratings are near record lows for him.
26:59Paul Hunter:One thing about that, though, heading into the 2024 presidential election, Trump and Kamala Harris were neck and neck. And then it wasn't even close on election night, right? And pollsters were talking about how there is sort of this silent bump for Trump because people are not necessarily wanting to put their support publicly or are necessarily some. Some people are very proud to support Donald Trump, but some people are sort of there to whether it's they quietly support him. Yes, his poll numbers are low, but there always seems to be this like unexpected bump for Trump in the polls because people might not participate in these polls.
27:37Paul Hunter:Things have sort of changed. But as weird as this might sound, because all of the numbers indicate that things are going to be rough for the Republicans. History is on the Democrat side. The polling numbers are on Democrat side. But at the same time, Trump has this way of still bringing people out and does better than expected in almost almost every election we've seen. Almost.
27:59Katie Simpson:That's another important point. And the polls, the major networks all kind of reassessed how they do polling post 2016. But I'm with Katie on that. I think they still don't fully reflect Trump's power, magnetism, whatever.
28:18Willy Lowry:Two last things. One, we're not quite yet at the halfway point of the Trump presidency. Think about that. Two.
28:27Paul Hunter:Think about how much has happened already. Exactly.
28:28Willy Lowry:And we're not quite at the halfway point. Number two, midterms are coming out fast. The day after that, the 2028 presidential effectively begins. I'm tired. You're tired already? You look tired. You look hurt. All right. So from trade wars to elections, we'll be watching all of these issues this fall for our regular reporting and for this podcast. Katie, Willie, nice talking again as always. Let's do this again in person.
28:53Paul Hunter:That's shotgun a beer, Paul. You know what?
28:55Katie Simpson:While we can, we'll cheers our water mugs purchased by the one and only, designed by the one and only. Thank you.
29:02Paul Hunter:Paul, hold on. There we go. Cheers, everybody.
29:08Paul Hunter:As always, if you have something you would like to ask or feedback about what you're hearing, you can send an email to WashingtonPod, all one word, at cbc.ca. That is WashingtonPod at cbc.ca. Or you can leave a comment on Spotify.
29:21Katie Simpson:And if you like what you're hearing, spread the word. Tell a friend about this podcast. And don't forget to follow us on your favorite podcasting app so you never miss an episode. Paul is still trying to decide his.
29:32Willy Lowry:I got a shotgun of coffee now. Okay, everyone. Thanks. We'll talk again next week.
From the publisher
There has been no shortage of news coming out of the White House this summer, and things are about to ramp up even more. From the ongoing trade war between Canada and the U.S., to the war in Iran and midterm elections in November, Washington correspondents Katie Simpson, Willy Lowry and Paul Hunter are back together to give you the lowdown on what to expect in the next few months.
