Is America really winning?

11:55Willy Lowry:The economy is good. Vote for Republicans in the coming midterms.

11:59Katie Simpson:We're trending in the right direction. Trending in the right direction.

12:02Willy Lowry:And because of him.

12:02Katie Simpson:We are the hottest country anywhere in the world. The hottest. Yeah. Because of him. But back to your earlier point, Kitty, I mean, if you kind of look at the actual specifics, I mean, yeah, sure, inflation has fallen. It's still at 2.4%, right?

12:18Paul Hunter:It's not falling in the way he's describing it. Well, exactly. But the stock markets, like we have seen the record gains on the stock markets and those kinds of things.

12:25Willy Lowry:But there were record gains. The records under Joe Biden and then before him, Donald Trump and before him, Barack Obama and before him, George W. Bush. I could go back to Eisenhower. The only president who didn't get a record on the stock market was Jimmy Carter, right? But those things don't matter. What matters is the message that things are good. So, yes, does bacon cost more? Do eggs cost more? We can talk about gasoline and what the truth is on that. But all he really wants, all any politician wants, any president wants is the vibe, right? Do you feel good coming out of this? Do I get the credit, whoever's doing the talking?

13:01Willy Lowry:Or are you going to blame me? And he needs people to not blame him and to think only positive thoughts when it comes to the economy. And that was the real underlying message last night.

13:08Paul Hunter:And this is going to be the test heading into the midterm elections because this is an actual issue that actually moves people. We saw in the last election, you know, questions about democracy after, you know, Donald Trump's claims about election fraud, what happened on January 6th. Those kinds of things that Democrats would base their argument around about why you should vote for us. They didn't resonate with Americans in the way that Donald Trump's two key messages were. One, we got to stop illegal immigration. Two, we got to make the economy better because the cost of living crisis is out of control.

13:37Paul Hunter:The thing is, Donald Trump may have really satisfied his base with a lot of the changes to the immigration policy in terms of ramping up the deportation, the mass deportation agenda that he promised, even if there are huge pockets of backlash. But when it comes to the economy, the question is he can put that message out there, but do Americans feel it?

13:57Katie Simpson:Yeah, I mean, I think that is certainly the question going forward. And it was interesting to see Abigail Spanberger's rebuttal, right? She really tried to hammer home that affordability point that, you know, Americans were still hurting. I did feel like in that speech, I'm not sure if he really spoke to the working class American and really kind of displayed any kind of empathy for what they might be feeling at the bank or in the wallet.

14:24Willy Lowry:I would add to that the economy and how much money is in your wallet and what's coming out every time you go to the grocery store is the OG issue for every politician who's ever run for office. Right. And he knows it. And I think, you know, what does it mean to the working class people, etc. And to the MAGA people. I've met MAGA people in lineups at Trump rallies in this in Trump 2.0 who say, yeah, things are costing more. But in the long run, this will mean jobs for America. For my kids, they'll get better jobs. So I'm willing to put up with a little bit more for eggs and bacon and beans and whatever, because I believe Trump when he says this will pay off in the long run.

15:03Katie Simpson:And it's interesting if you kind of he almost extrapolates that perspective to the national perspective. Right. That's the whole thing with terrorists. While they're actually taking money out of the taxpayers wallet, they are putting money into the coffers of the administration. Right. Of the U.S. government. So he can say we are raking in this money. and you know it's interesting to to see if and how that'll resonate but what did he say on tariffs

15:26Paul Hunter:last a lot of stuff that's not true this is the end of income taxes yeah maybe without explaining

15:33Willy Lowry:that or without even without presuming that people will think how can you possibly replace the money that the government is getting from income taxes broadly with the money that's coming a lot of money's coming in from tariffs but it's nowhere near the amount that's coming in on an income tax

15:46Katie Simpson:And as time goes by, I believe the tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern day system of income tax, taking a great financial burden off the people that I love.

16:02Paul Hunter:It's also American importers that are paying for it. It's not foreign. I know that this is for a Canadian audience and many Canadians are very well aware of this. But just to set the record straight, who pays a tariff? Customs and Border Patrol bills the person who's importing the foreign good. It makes foreign products uncompetitive, and it means there are going to be, you know, challenges and questions about jobs in other countries, because if you don't have access to the American market or your product's not as available or successful or affordable, that, you know, that's why countries don't like it.

16:34Paul Hunter:It's not because they're paying it. Anyway, that's what we're going to talk about. We'll return to tariffs in just a minute. I love when Katie gets going on tariffs.

16:43Katie Simpson:I can just like sit back and be a spectator.

16:45Paul Hunter:We're going to talk about it some more. We're going to talk about it some more in a moment.

17:13Katie Simpson:wherever you get your podcasts.

17:17Paul Hunter:Paul, longest State of the Union ever. Trump gets to sort of put that in his book. Yeah, he beat his own record. But it was his own record. You know, what do you make of his performance last night?

17:28Willy Lowry:He's, look, you know, love him or don't love him. He's, I don't like using this word, but he's a showman. Like, he knows what he's doing, right? Every president who gets up at that dais will make reference to the guests that are out there. But he he knows how to do that. He knows how to deliver a speech. He knows how to look when he's delivering those lines. He knows how to and it's his speech writers as well, but he knows how to weave the personal stories out there to make the points. It's hard not to sit and just watch it as television in many ways. You know what I mean? And that's part of the job at that point for any president is to get up there and sell and to make people to bring it back to the vibe and what the takeaway message needs to be from a Trump perspective and a White House perspective.

18:17Katie Simpson:He's very good at that. He drew on his TV executive producing experience. This was a very well-produced speech, those moments. Again, I hate to bring it back. You're going to anyway, aren't you? You know, their dramatic entrance. It was good television with the World War Two veterans, as well as the pilot from the operation last month in Venezuela.

18:39Paul Hunter:He also brought Erica Kirk, who is the widow of Charlie Kirk, the right wing activist that was assassinated last September. And, you know, it's a it's a signal to his base. You know, these these are the people of value that that we're here to speak to. But we also saw Democrats, some of them wearing pins on their jackets saying, release the Epstein files with words sort of blacked out, like redacted, like a lot we've seen in the Epstein files. And some survivors of the Epstein sex, child sex trafficking ring, they were present and they were in the chamber to witness this speech to also bring attention to this issue because they, you know, as a way to protest the way the Trump administration has handled these kinds of things.

19:21Willy Lowry:You know who else was there that I don't think got to mention were the astronauts, including Jeremy Hansen. And what an opportunity at this time, at this moment, in this circumstance of the relationship between the two countries, to use those three astronauts, invited by Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House, to make the point that international cooperation works, that you've got a Canadian and three Americans about to go back to the moon for the first time in 50 years, all here together. and isn't that a grand thing? But it was not mentioned. But I thought it was a missed opportunity to say, hey, things can work when we work together.

19:56Willy Lowry:I got excited for you when I saw that. Thank you.

19:58Paul Hunter:Speaker Mike Johnson, so this usually doesn't happen when you're at State of the Union. Yes, you have access to more lawmakers and you have more access to these high profile members of the Trump administration. But we were just getting ready to do our last hit into the national at midnight Eastern time when all of a sudden Mike Johnson walks super close to where our live hit position is. And he was sort of, I think he was waiting to go on with another American broadcaster. And I just turned to him and said, Hi, I'm from Canada. Can I talk to you? And he just shrugged and said, Okay, and walked on set with me.

20:30Paul Hunter:And so we got an interview with him. You know, I asked him, you know, what should Canadians who are watching this, you know, Trump, what should Canadians take from this? Look, there's a saying here that you should take the president seriously and not literally. And I think some in the media here and some Democrats have that reverse. They take him literally and not seriously, I think, to their peril. Look, I regard Canada as a good neighbor and a close ally. And I think those relationships will transcend all this time right now. You know, we enjoyed our hockey gold there and we had the team there today, but it was all in good fun and good spirit.

21:07Paul Hunter:We have nothing against Canada.

21:09Katie Simpson:Take him seriously, but not literally. But I mean, it like what? Like, OK, but he's also the leader of a country.

21:19Willy Lowry:That's the thing. Right. But that's such that's that is that is the thing. You know, one of the things I was watching for was how he would what he would do when he passed by the Supreme Court justices who had just turned thumbs down or the majority of them on on his global tariffs. And there were three of them who had voted against him. Right. John Roberts, Kagan and Coney Barrett. Coney Barrett, Amy Coney Barrett specifically being an appointee of Donald Trump who went against him, whom at whom he directed that comment. You're an embarrassment to your family. Right. And what did he do at the State of the Union?

21:55Willy Lowry:He shook her hand. And so back to Mike Johnson. He's the president. Take his words seriously.

22:02Paul Hunter:But at the same time, you never really know.

22:05Willy Lowry:And that's the challenge for everybody who deals with him.

22:08Katie Simpson:And I think that interaction, though, that was like the first indication that, OK, he's going to like be pretty restrained in this in this speech. The fact that he shook her hand, made no drama about it. He still called it unfortunate. He called it unfortunate. But I mean, compared to what he had been saying the previous days, really kind of.

22:26Willy Lowry:And he's got other tariffs in the works as well. So it's like the heck with you. I'll move on.

22:30Katie Simpson:But that's where it felt like a campaign speech. Right. Like, I think his people were saying stick to the economy, stick to the immigration thing. We know you love tariffs, but don't harp on it. This is not what the American people want to hear right now. Stick to your kind of strong point.

22:45Willy Lowry:I think that's exactly what this was. It was a pre-campaign campaign speech. It's not his campaign to come, but his Republican campaigns were a large kind of thing.

22:52Katie Simpson:And ultimately, it is a reflection of him. Of him.

22:54Willy Lowry:It's a report card.

22:55Paul Hunter:Yeah. And of course, Donald Trump, you know, in the days leading up to this, it was a significant blow to his administration. even though losing at the Supreme Court on his tariff case in that six to three decision, where essentially the Supreme Court said Donald Trump exceeded his authority. He did not have the power to impose some of his tariffs, all the tariffs related to, you know, declaring an emergency and whatever the emergency Donald Trump says is. And then you can impose a tariff at will. But I think that this provided an opportunity for Donald Trump to again make that argument to say, listen, my power has not been challenged.

23:32Paul Hunter:My power remains just as strong. If not, it's even stronger. And he's like, guess what? I've got stronger tools and other options at my disposal. And that is something he does. It's true. He does have those other options. It might take a little bit longer to impose them. They might not be as direct right away. But in the long run, he can remain the tariff man as he's branded himself to be.

23:55Willy Lowry:And the other thing is to remember the audience, Forget the Republican Democrat divide for a second. But he's speaking to Congress. Right. And the whole issue with tariffs is who has the power to impose that kind of stuff. And broadly speaking, the answer in the United States is it's Congress. Right. And Trump has usurped that. He's got around them and he's telling them, again, I'm going to do it all over again, but just do it differently. Congressional action will not be necessary. It's already time tested and approved. And what did Republicans do all last night throughout on various issues, including that one?

24:27Willy Lowry:They stood up and they applauded.

24:29Katie Simpson:Yeah, it was remarkable. I mean, again, we have to remember, right, the State of the Union, while it's become an address to the public, it is at its core an address to the lawmakers. Face to face, literally.

24:40Paul Hunter:Canada, as we've mentioned, only came up once. And Willie, when we were having the pre-discussion to get into this. Is Willie going to talk hockey again? I'm not going to traumatize you. Please don't. We're not going to. I am going to mention.

24:50Katie Simpson:My five-year-old saw me cry for the first time.

24:55Paul Hunter:Largely, aside from Willie's feelings being hurt, Canada sort of dodged a bullet because it was not a focus. Even though Donald Trump reaffirmed his commitment to tariffs, Canada was not singled out or sort of degraded in any sort of way. Both of you, question of both of you. Does what we heard on Tuesday night, is that going to stick? How long are we talking about this? Please predict American voters for me.

25:17Katie Simpson:Well, certainly the next nine months. The cynic in me says that we'll be talking about something else by Friday.

25:26Willy Lowry:I'm not punting the economy and those issues, but I'm talking about the speech. Does what happened last night have legs? I don't know. It's a fast news cycle. Who knows what's going to go on with Iran that'll change things, right?

25:42Katie Simpson:Yeah. I mean, interesting fact about State of the Union. It almost never actually influences poll numbers that significantly, right? While it's well, like the viewership is high, usually around between 40 and 60 million. It'll be interesting to see what they are this time around. They don't actually historically move the needle. And with social media these days, right, Trump is so accustomed to just firing out his posts on True Social to an equally sizable audience. I do think this, to me, really marked the beginning of the midterm campaign season. It will be really interesting to see if he can stay disciplined, stay on message over the course of the nine months.

26:26Katie Simpson:But I think to Paul's point, again, it is back to that kind of vibe. There were no big points of this speech, really, but there was a vibe. And unfortunately, I'm going to doing it to myself this time, served up on a silver or golden platter by the winning U.S. hockey team.

26:45Paul Hunter:You know, they say the same thing about debates. However, we all saw what happened to Joe Biden in 2024. We all saw.

26:53Willy Lowry:Yeah, well, that was a moment. That was a moment. That was a moment. And I'm not convinced there was a moment last night, Ilhan Omar aside, that will resonate in the way that did. And last night, with a couple of exceptions, especially when there was heckling going on, but he read the words. And he, like I say, he does that well, but he did it. He read the words and the words were economy good and Trump winning. Win, win, win, win, win. Life's good. Trust me. Economy good. Border closed. Exactly.

27:25Paul Hunter:Basically. All right. That is it for us this week. There's a lot to talk about. So we're not going to answer an audience question this week, but we will next week. So keep your questions coming. You can send them to WashingtonPod at CBC.ca. That is all one word, WashingtonPod at CBC.ca.

27:43Willy Lowry:And don't forget to follow us on your favorite podcast app or watch us on YouTube.

27:47Katie Simpson:And once you do, don't forget to share an episode with your friends and family. You are our audience.

27:53Paul Hunter:And you can send Willie direct mail about the hockey just to either console him or torment him. But thanks, guys. See you next week.

28:01Katie Simpson:Thanks, you too. Thanks, Katie.

28:08Katie Simpson:For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.