The volatile value of brand Trump

0:00In a nearly unprecedented set of circumstances, Mark Carney has won his majority government. I'm Jamie Poisson, host of the daily news podcast FrontBurner, which is really worth a follow this week because the political drama is far from over. How durable is this majority government? Does it spell the end of Pierre Polyev's conservative leadership? Follow FrontBurner so you can stay on top of this fast-moving story. This is a CBC Podcast. Willie, Paul. Oh, wait. Wait a minute. Wait a minute. You're not Paul. No, I'm Louie. I'm kind of a cheap version of Paul with less hair and an accent. You know what?

0:40We're going to tell Paul we prefer it that way. We'll ask him to come on and bring more of an accent. Louie, welcome. Thank you for joining us. It'll be fun. And Willie, you're joining us from Toronto today. I am somewhere deep inside our beautiful broadcasting center. Louie, so great to have you. This week is the Eastern Townships Takeover. Yes. Two blocks from the White House. Okay, for anyone who does not know, Louis Bluyn is Radio Canada's correspondent here in Washington. He hangs out and works with us in our bureau, which, of course, is two blocks from the White House. Thank you very much for joining us.

1:13I'm very happy to be here. This week, we're talking about two international elections where Donald Trump loomed large. Well, yeah, absolutely. And in Canada, too, you know. Now, Mark Carney has his majority stable government until 2029. All he needed is three by-election wins and five floor crossers. And that's what he got. And there you go. More power now. And over the weekend in Hungary, a continent away, there was a major, major defeat. Viktor Orban out after 16 years and a huge endorsement from President Donald Trump. You know, Donald Trump's name wasn't technically on the ballot in either country, but his brand and his politics did play a role.

1:52And so today for our conversation, we are going to explore, are there parallels between his perceived unpopularity abroad and some of the challenges he's facing at home? So today we're talking about the Trump factor, exploring how Trump's touch is backfiring in some places. I'm Katie Simpson. I'm Louis Bluett. And I'm Willie Lowry. And we are two blocks from the White House.

2:22The world is more divided and dangerous. The impacts of foreign conflicts and accelerating technological change are increasingly being felt here at home. And Canada's new government will continue to focus on what we can control. Now that he has a majority government, Mark Carney has more leverage and more breathing room to navigate what he described there as a dangerous and divided world. The liberals picked up all three seats that were up for grabs in by-elections this week. Louis, how does the Trump factor, what does that have to do with Carney now being able to clinch his majority? It's funny because I was speaking to a senior liberal source last night and I asked, you know, is Trump still useful for you guys?

3:08And the answer was kind of funny. You know, as long as he does crazy things where, you know, he's very useful to us. And, you know, that's what they feel. As long as Trump takes tough decisions on all sorts of things or he posts pictures of himself, pictures as Jesus, stuff like that, they feel it's useful to them. And the source brings it to me, the strategy kind of in the anti-Trump coalition. In a way, they're there to fight Trump policies. Even though he's not on the ballot. Exactly. And again, we saw it. Now they're going to slash the excise tax on gas until September. So reacting directly to Trump policies.

3:44But also anti-Trump coalition in a sense that they are against also his style of politics. So they're using that, you know, to compare Poitiers to Trump and to poach his MPs and, you know, do some parallels and bridges like that. And it seems to be very useful to them because they won three by-elections Monday night. And Willie, you know, this is the fact that we are in this moment. There is another liberal majority government. Sort of walk us through how we got here because this really is a dramatic turn of events. Yeah, seemingly a little more than a year ago, we were racing towards a conservative government.

4:22And then the 51st state comments really flipped the entire equation here in Canada on its head. The Conservative Party went from a 25-point lead to obviously a somewhat distant second place. And in the year since, they've now lost four MPs and there's also been an NDP who's crossed the floor. So really the Liberals are gaining power not just through by-elections, but also through closed-door meetings with Conservative and in some cases NDP MPs as well. What about you, Katie? What do you think of the impact on the voting patterns in Canada? I think no one can ignore Donald Trump. He's always in the public.

5:05He's always in front of cameras. He's always posting something online. And that has become just part of the everyday political equation. And so because his decisions, whether they are, whether he's making threats or following through on the threats or pulling back or whatever it is he's doing, because his presence is so significant, you can't ignore it. And posing a rhythm, right? Exactly. It's constantly there. So whether you whether people want to ignore him and tune him out, you can't really do it right. And so he becomes a useful foil when it comes to politics. And it clearly we were clearly seeing it from the liberals that, you know, are they campaigning against Pierre Paulyev or are they campaigning against Donald Trump?

5:49You can't just blame everything, though, on Donald Trump. There are, you know, of course, there are significant challenges when it comes to, you know, Canadian domestic politics. And when we talk about Pierre Polyev, you know, having some challenges in terms of caucus management, our colleagues in Ottawa have been covering that quite extensively. The NDP, they have the problems of their own, too. And we've seen floor crossers from both parties. So there are domestic challenges. You can't just, you know, get one big paintbrush and say Trump, Trump, Trump, as much as a lot of people do. But you can't ignore his impact on what's going on here.

6:22And there's no question, right, that the 51st state comments is kind of what kicked all of this off and that we've had these conversations now over the last 14 months really centered around national unity. Louis, can you take us through a little bit of what that's meant in Quebec? Yeah, the impact was pretty significant in Quebec politics and starting with independentist parties in Quebec who felt the impact the most. Go back to the general election last year, the Bloc Québécois lost a third of its seats because, you know, you had in front of him Carney talking about standing up to Trump and the necessity to be united against the threat coming from the southern border.

7:02And again, last night in Terrebonne, we knew it would be a tight race. But again, the Bloc Québécois lost by about a margin of 700 votes. The Liberals wanted it badly. They wanted to show that they are still pool in Quebec, you know, because that's Quebec who elected Carney last time, gave him his majority in a sense. So they wanted to prove that. But still, it's not a good sign for the Bloc Québécois or the Parti Québécois because the electors in Quebec are sending a signal like they want stability, that that's what they want, continuity for the next few years. And also, if you look at the election, provincial election coming up the next fall, big implication for the Parti Québécois of Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon.

7:38He is still leading in the polls, but he lost some feathers in the last few months and he felt the need to adapt his referendum strategy. So he was promising and he still is a referendum in the first mandate. But, you know, he tweaked it a little bit. Oh, maybe we can wait until Trump is out of power. So it's a direct acknowledgement that there's an impact, that people are worried, are focused on economic issues these days and not on referendum. So it's going to be an interesting pattern there. But again, Trump factor, it's there. OK, so there is another big election that everyone is talking about.

8:11And unlike in Canada with the by-elections, the Trump administration actually got behind a candidate. Trump has long admired Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister. So, Willie, what happened in Hungary over the weekend? Yeah, essentially 16 years of Orban was, you know, voted out quite decisively with Hungarians voting 53 percent for Peter Magyar. He won 138 of 199 seats. So really a super majority there. And it comes despite the Trump administration really stumping hard for Orban. Just last week, J.D. Vance flew to Hungary to hold a rally for Orban. He called President Trump while at the rally in a really kind of bizarre moment.

9:07The first time he called, I think he hid the voicemail when J.D. Vance called. I think he was like, J.D., J.D., I'm busy. Yeah, let's take a listen, because it was quite an extraordinary moment. Mr. President, you are on with about 5 ,000 Hungarian patriots, and I think they love you even more than they love Viktor Orban. Well, I can't believe that. I can't believe that, because I love Hungary, and I love that Viktor. I'll tell you, he's a fantastic man. We've had a tremendous relationship and he does a job. Remember this. He didn't allow people to storm your country and invade your country like other people have and ruin their countries, frankly.

9:49He's kept your country good. He's kept Hungarian people in your country. So, you know, interesting there, right, guys, obviously taking another not so thinly veiled swipe at Europe, something that he has done repeatedly over the course of the last 15 months. But he also really I mean, he went to bat for Orban and really exposed himself to this potential fallout. You know, when this is this is sort of off topic, but when when when J.D. Vance said, Mr. President, you're on with about 5000 Hungarian patriots. It reminds me of when you pick up the phone and say, you're on speaker with someone here.

10:30Make sure you watch what you're going to say. There's somebody in the car with me. You're on speaker. Hello. We're driving together. It gave me that that vibes. But, you know, Louis, why is this such a big deal for for politics in America right now to watch what just happened? I think there's three big warnings for Trump with what happened and, you know, the fact the defeat of Orbán. First of all, is that that stunt didn't work even like a few days before the election, which is kind of extraordinary. Let's just mention that. So the pull that they hope to have on Hungarian people wasn't there. Like this election really came from the streets.

11:05It didn't come from an ally elsewhere in the world. So that's the first thing. Second thing is that Peter Mojar was elected on domestic and economic issues. That's what mattered to people. He said, I'm going to tackle the stagnant economy in Hungary. That's what we're going to try to focus on. We're going to try to unlock that money from the European Union. We're going to try to make your lives better. As Orban, at the same time, was campaigning while saying, you know, oh, be careful. We're going to be dragging the Ukraine war, you know, on foreign issues. And clearly it didn't work. So for Donald Trump, who is now, you know, two hands in the Middle East, big time, talking about Cuba, there was the Venezuela operation.

11:44And when you look at the polls, people are worried about cost of living, having access to housing, the bills. That's what matters to them. So I think there's a warning sign there for Trump that, you know, domestic issues, economic issues these days really matter. And the focus needs to be there. But again, we're being distracted by all sorts of things here in the U.S. at the moment. And so I think that's the thing. And the last thing, I guess, it's just erosion of power. So Orban spent 16 years in power, not Donald Trump. But at the same time, Donald Trump is so present. He's everywhere in the media.

12:16He's sucking oxygen all day long. People could get tired of that, of seeing him and hearing and everything. So that's where I think there's some matters, some warnings that come into play for them. I'm tired of Trump. Never heard of that. Never heard people say that before. One thing Canadians, a Canadian audience may not realize is just how Donald Trump is modeling, particularly his second term, after the way that Viktor Orban was able to consolidate power in Hungary. Steve Bannon, who is a longtime advisor of Donald Trump, he's not an advisor right now, but he's a powerful voice in the MAGA movement.

12:51He describes Orban as Trump before Trump. That's sort of the quote. And if you take a look at the way that Orban was able to consolidate power, you know, you start by attacking the media and consolidating the media, creating your own media ecosystem. Well, what are we seeing happening in the United States? And what have we seen? You know, powerful Trump allies taking leadership roles when it comes to mainstream news. You're also seeing these huge sort of influential right wing voices, whether it's in the podcasting space, whether it's in the, you know, online influencing space. those places where, you know, Trump isn't necessarily being challenged in the way that a traditional news outlet would try to hold someone to power.

13:31You take a look at, you know, redrawing, you know, electoral maps, that kind of thing. Donald Trump pushing for redistricting efforts in America ahead of the midterm elections. And putting allies also in strategic position in government, too. And, you know, people who will bend to his will, you know, in Justice Department and other places. So that's where you go. It's all of the sort of things we've seen Donald Trump sort of do in a supercharged way since he returned to office. We've seen it play out across 16 years of Orbán's rule in Hungary. And that is why it is significant when you see those parallels in the United States.

14:07They look to him and they found common ground there. And European leaders are now very happy to see that it's going the other way now that Hungary is coming back to Europe's arms. You know, but I think you both you both keyed in on an important point, right? As much as perhaps there was a kind of negative influence from Trump, you know, 16 years in power is a really long time. There is voter fatigue from that. But by the time we get to 2028, Trump will have been a major figure in US politics for 12 years. And you could argue while he's only in power for eight of those, he was an omnipresence throughout the Biden administration.

14:49Right. And by the time we get to the midterms in less than a year, it's 10 years of Trump, really. Katie, let's talk a little bit about what that Trump factor could kind of mean for Republicans. Yeah. And it sort of sort of cites back to the overarching question we're talking about. When Trump touches something, is he having the effect that he's hoping he's going to have? Or are we at the backlash moment? Are we at a more widespread, broader backlash moment? We're seeing it now, you know, in Canada, Donald Trump has the ability to motivate voters, but not in the way that he wants. Donald Trump endorsing Viktor Orban, trying to get involved in the campaign at the last minute to try and help there, didn't have the effect that he wanted.

15:31And the big concern is or are there parallels we can take from those two examples and bring it back to an American domestic question? I think with the Canadian example, how people are motivated to get out and vote against Trump because they see him as a challenge for the Canadian economy. They see him as a challenge to threats of sovereignty. We know that he motivates Democrats to go out and vote against him. We see Democrats, even if they're running, you know, municipal or state level campaigns, they talk about standing up to Trump. Didn't work in 2024 for Kamala Harris, but the situation might be a little bit different now.

16:08But they still have to find, I find a national message that would resonate, articulate something that will get mobilization around the economy. It seems that it's like everybody's doing a bit of his own thing right now. We'll see how it goes. They still have a few months, but that could be a challenge. Yeah, I think running strictly against Trump is not enough, right? They have to present an idea and present something that can galvanize their base. I have to say, Chuck Schumer had a pretty good tweet following Orbán's defeat. He said, pay attention, Donald Trump. Wannabe dictators wear out their welcome.

16:43November 2026 can't come soon enough. Certainly the case for Democrats, but, you know, we'll have to wait and see what Americans actually are feeling and thinking.

17:03In a nearly unprecedented set of circumstances, Mark Carney has won his majority government. I'm Jamie Poisson, host of the daily news podcast FrontBurner, which is really worth a follow this week because the political drama is far from over. How durable is this majority government? Does it spell the end of Pierre Polyev's conservative leadership? Follow FrontBurner so you can stay on top of this fast-moving story. So we've got the parallels in Canada about motivating your opponents. The parallels going on right now with the election in Hungary. We could take a look at frustration over cost of living.

17:41The war in Iran has caused global energy markets to become unstable. We're seeing significant surges. The price of gas has doubled in America, which when Donald Trump ran on an economic message saying, listen, I'm going to bring down the cost of living. and he promised no new wars. And look, we've got a new war. So, you know, are there lessons to be learned there from, OK, listen, the reality is the message you sold us isn't working. And is that going to hurt Republicans in the 2026 midterm election cycle? The thing is, there's still a lot of months to go. Yes. That's the thing. But I think we can see some fractures starting.

18:23And, you know, I was in CPAC, the conservative conference in Texas a few weeks ago. Tell us about that. And I was really surprised to see how openly, especially young MAGA men would speak against Trump. Because, you know, you covered those events, you know, when you go there and you start asking a bit of tough questions. Sometimes people just defend Trump all the way. This time around, no. And they talked about the Iran war first, even before I asked about it, what they thought about it. It seems, and a lot of them are just upset that Trump is, like you were mentioning, doing the exact opposite of what he promised.

18:56And I kind of, I can, you know, get it together in three strikes that he has with young voters that I found. First one is nothing done on cost of living issue or housing issue. A lot of young people, young men were talking about the inability to be able to buy a home. And what is the president doing about that? I might just not vote at all if the GOP continues to go down this path of ignoring what we want. At this point, what else do we have? We don't have homes. We barely have cars. We can't go out and eat. We can't go socialize. We have to just kind of sit at home because we have no money. So that's the first thing.

19:30Epstein files. This one keeps coming up. It was still the case in December when I went to the Turning Point USA event. CPAC again. Epstein files. We were happy and excited that, oh, we're going to release the Epstein files. And then we saw the way they talked about it. And they said, oh, it's coming out. And then nothing came out. and then it said, you know, what Epstein files? So I didn't appreciate that. I didn't like that because, you know, we all wanted that to be released. And then the war in Iran and the red line was a lot, for a lot of people, boots on the ground. But they said, you know, I don't even know.

20:02And many of them told me, I don't even know if I'm going to go vote this fall. And I think the risk for Trump with the young voters and young men, 1829, who supported him 54%, in a margin of 54 % last election, is that these guys don't go out to vote. They won't vote Democrat, probably not. But they might just not go out. And that's where it could make a difference in flipping some tight races next fall. And you need this coalition of voters that he built in 2024, Latinos, young people, young men especially. So if this breaks apart, there's big political risks for them. And, you know, we feel the president is frustrated these days.

20:40We can hear it. We can see it. Does he know that this is fracturing, that he's in big trouble because of that? So I feel that as a president that is frustrated right now and he sees that there's not a lot of time left, not a lot of before the fall. I think that's a really, you know, voter turnout, Luis. I think that's going to be really key in November for sure. I also think we're at the point in the administration where even though he's still blaming so much on the Biden administration, there's too much water under the bridge, right? Right. He now owns all of these problems and a lot of them he created, you know, in particularly, of course, the price of gas with the Iran war.

21:20I mean, he has no one to put the blame on but himself there. And the one thing is we've seen Trump go from scandal to scandal to scandal and survive or challenge to challenge to challenge and survive. And so many times everyone has written the political obituary on him and it never sticks. He just keeps pushing ahead. The question is whether there are any actual consequences to this, because Donald Trump has been this figure who's been in the public sphere. And no matter what he's done throughout his life, where are the consequences? Now, he might argue very differently and say, you know, look at, you know, some of the challenges that he's faced.

22:02He would argue that he faced a number of criminal charges. He described that as sort of being persecuted. And he talks about, you know, I'm trying to protect you, the voter, and they're coming after me and they're trying to stop me. He's framed things in an argument like that, that a lot of Republican voters have supported and do get behind. But, you know, through all the challenges, he's president. Yeah. Right. And the opposition needs to organize, too. And that's the thing. And it's not clear that the Democrats have their act together yet. You know, when we see how they react on the Hill now and the way they organize their message is very, very fragmented.

22:40So I totally agree with you. Never rule Trump out. That's for sure. But yeah, the next month will be very interesting. But now with the gas, like 519 I saw in D.C. this week. 519? And let me tell you, there's a lot of Americans who don't know who the new supreme leader in Iran is. But they certainly know to the dollar how much it costs to fill their tank. In this moment, given the gas shock, given the frustration there, do we think this far out from the midterm elections, remember the vote will be held in the fall, is Donald Trump going to be more of an asset or a hindrance to Republican candidates that are out there campaigning?

23:21Well, you see some former allies just, you know, flipping right now and going away. And what I'm hearing also echoes here in Washington is that some political staffers of the president are moving on or looking for new jobs. So if the brand internally is not good anymore, what does it tell you, you know, for what's coming? And so that's going to be very interesting to watch how, you know, close allies to the president this tandem feels. I was a bit surprised how fast we saw leaks about J.D. Vance that expressed his frustration about the war. His frustration about it. He's not supporting of it. Yeah, that he resisted.

23:58I have no proof indicating that he leaked it. But it's interesting to see that even in what's portrayed in the media, we show him being distant and advised against the war. He couldn't turn that up after maybe the midterms and say, you know, I told you I was against it. That could be useful in Iran eventually. I wonder about that. So this is something that I've talked about on the podcast a bunch of times that I still I'm not convinced that it's going to be Marco Rubio, the secretary of state versus J.D. Vance, the vice president running to be the Republican candidate. But if it does come down to those two, I do think the divide we're going to see is J.D.

24:35Vance go for the MAGA base and talk about, I said no more wars, I was fighting against this, and Marco Rubio taking up the mantle of the traditional Republican about America leading on the world stage and those kinds of things. I also wouldn't necessarily be surprised is if we take a look at J.D. Vance's political career, he has changed his position and his stance when it's convenient for him, when he sees an opportunity to seek power, anti-Trump to pro-Trump, so pro-Trump, he's all the way to be the vice president. People notice that. People notice that. And so I wonder if we should be watching that, you know, is there going to be a moment where he turns on Trump?