Trade war reality check: Do Americans even care?

0:00Sometimes you want to spend more time with a story that dominated the headlines. Understood takes you inside the forces, reshaping our world and defining the digital age. Each season is a short, four-episode, immersive experience with a host who knows the story best, from revealing the little-known side of the world's richest man, Elon Musk, to the scale of deepfake porn, and what happens when a human becomes intimately enmeshed with a chatbot. Search for Understood everywhere you listen to podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Katie, Louis, welcome back to the podcast, both of you. Hello, hello. Hello.

0:41So for listeners who haven't heard these beautiful voices before, Katie Nicholson is my colleague on the English side of the CBC Washington Bureau here, and Louis Bluain is my colleague on the French side. Now, it's been a minute since I've seen both of you. I'm very happy to be here. Welcome back. Thank you. I was on vacation for a few weeks, not nearly long enough, to be honest. And then I got I had the pleasure of working out of our London bureau last week. But you two have been very busy talking to Americans all across the country. Yeah, I was in Ohio last week. Quick in and out. Northeastern Ohio, the former heart of steel country.

1:22Youngstown is the place. and talking to business owners and people who live there about this trade war and sort of the ongoing rhetoric, I guess, between Canada and the U.S. right now, at least at the political level, and how people are feeling it just trying to live their lives. I was in the fields too, literally. I did the road trip, about 8 ,000 kilometers road trip in an RV, doing stories all along from Maine to Texas. And I went to Iowa to speak to some farmers about the tariffs. So, you know, it's been a long trip. My back hurts a little bit. I'm going to try to get over it. I have a bit of a bug bed face too.

1:58Were you driving? I was driving. I was sleeping in the RV. There was a few hotel nights, but mostly in the RV. And I can still feel it now. But it was a great trip. We had some great feedback from the ground. That was nice. I can't wait to hear more about said road trip. Perhaps the stories that you can't tell us on the podcast. But your trips make you both the perfect guests for this week's episode. because we really want to talk about how Americans are reacting to this U.S.-Canada trade war. Of course, in Canada, the reaction has been a lot like this. The only way to deal with a thug and a bully is to stand up to him.

2:37That's why the prime minister's step was the right one. Any agreement that would have been signed with this president wouldn't have lasted as long as it took him to write his signature. No, I don't respond to a dictator like President Trump. I'm not going to take any advice off a guy that's the king of bankruptcies. And he's actually tariffing his own people, taxing his own people. We find ourselves in a very, very unfortunate place. In about 10 weeks, Americans are going to have midterm elections. And if Donald Trump continues on the path that he's on now, there's definitely going to be some change.

3:12And in Ohio, the reaction is mixed. Some people echoing what we heard there from some Canadian leaders. But I also talked to some people who really are in tune with what the Trump administration is doing. You know, I'm being honest with you. I think that they had like it just went on and on. But they had higher tariffs on our stuff than what we had on theirs. And then Trump made it equal. And then that's when everybody had a hissy fit about it. I guess I just don't know. You know, I just watch the news and you just don't know what to believe. Honest to God. You just I mean, on both sides. Wow, fascinating clip there.

3:51And this week, we're asking how much is this trade war really registering with Americans and how might it affect November's midterms? I'm Katie Nicholson. I'm Louis Bluwein. And I'm Willie Lowry. And we're CBC's and Radio Canada's Washington Correspondents. You guessed it, two blocks from the White House.

4:16Okay, so I want to start by asking you both more generally, when you are out talking, introducing yourselves to American voters, business owners and local politicians, what's their reaction when they find out that you are from Canada? I mean, Louise Laffey, we've talked about this. It's the profuse apologies the second you say you're with a Canadian news outlet. We love Canadians. We're so sorry. Yeah, sorry. My reaction is like, that's my line, like as a Canadian. And so they're leading with the I'm sorry's. I went to a baseball game. Even in Ohio. Even in Ohio. I mean, I can just think back to in Minneapolis after Renee Good was killed, being on the ground there.

5:00And that was, you know, it had nothing to do with Canada-U.S. relations, just people coming up and saying, oh, you're from Canada, blah, blah, blah. And so that has continued. And it's really sort of hit a fever pitch, I think, as this trade war has been moving along and blown up. So I went to this baseball game in Youngstown one evening. Beautiful night, sort of the beautiful sort of sunset happening, folks just hanging out after the game. And it was just this torrent of apologies and trying to explain from their standpoint what was happening and really not wanting to sort of destroy the Canada-U.S.

5:39relationship. So here's just a couple of the voices. It makes me angry. Why is that? Angry. Because, first of all, Canada and us have been very good allies forever. And to do something like this makes no sense at all. It's just ridiculous. Yeah, I think it's just all about Trump's ego. You know, he just has to be in charge and he has to be the boss and it has to his way or no way. It's embarrassing. It's embarrassing that we've let this happen, that we've let him in charge of anything. And we're sorry. We're really sorry. We don't want Canada to hold us against us. Citizens. It's not us. It's not us.

6:22We don't like them any more than you do. And what's funny is that you can get that kind of reaction also in surprising places, like very, very red states. So during the road trip, I stopped in Missouri and I was at a gas station with the RV. A guy comes up. What are you guys doing? I heard you speak French. Where are you from? We're from Canada. We're French Canadians. Oh, and the guy goes back to his pickup and brings out two gifts for us. So it's two paintings that he've made. One with the Casey Chiefs logo, of course, Kansas City Chiefs. But also another one was depicting a boxer turtle because there's a lot of them apparently in misery.

6:58And you see this little turtle with fighting gloves on. And you say, oh, you know what? We love you so much. And, you know, we are nice people. And we want you to know that we are still nice people. And he would give us those two little pieces. I brought him home because it tells you about this, you know, disconnect that you can see from the leaders, the administration, the decisions, the tone, and what people will tell you on the ground. And those two people that I met, they were both Republicans. That's really interesting. And I think, you know, those same sentiments would still be mirrored in Canada.

7:29There is a belief that this is not a people to people conflict, but very much a government to government trade war. That's where the daylight and there is a lot of it exists. But let's talk a little bit more, Katie, about the people that you spoke to who were directly impacted by these terrorists, I believe, right? Yeah. In Youngstown, Ohio. Take me through kind of what exactly Youngstown is like, what the industry is there, and why and how they've been impacted. So Youngstown was the heart of steel country years ago, 1977. They lost 5 ,000 jobs overnight and when the steel mills closed, they've worked over the decades to really diversify the economy.

8:16They're heavy into manufacturing and manufacturing in a lot of sectors that are hit by the counter tariffs and the tariffs. So the Chamber of Commerce walked me through some of the reaction, even within the Chamber, is mixed because you have some manufacturing industries within Youngstown that have benefited from the tariffs. You have others that have been hurt. You've had some that have had elements of their business that have been able to capitalize on the tariffs and others that are hurt by it. But overall, the information, the data that they're getting from the state university, which has been looking into this for them, is that there's a net negative impact on the community.

8:49And then you sit down, you talk to construction companies. There's this one company that's been in town since the early 80s. Joe Koch took me through a new build. This was one of several new builds he had hoped to move forward on. But because of tariffs and inflation, it's just one build in this subdivision as opposed to the three or four that he had anticipated at the same time. Things that have happened to him, he's had to switch shingles. He used to have a Canadian supplier. He found a local one. Well, that's good for the local market from an American market. But, you know, it is it's forced him to scramble.

9:23There's been all these supply issues. He told me the first thing he did when Trump was elected the second time is he immediately got on the phone to all of his suppliers. And he's like, how much do we have in the country? Trying to get a sense of what was already here, what was potentially going to be impacted down the line just in terms of planning and trying to price things out as you build these subdivisions. And it's it's been it's really difficult. He describes it as trying to fight a war every day, basically, just trying to stay in the fight. And as for this trade war, he really just wants it to be resolved so they can get some sense of where things are going, a sense of normalcy, so you can actually do that planning.

10:06Here's sort of his thoughts on the importance of that Canada-U.S. trade relationship. To have some type of semblance of fair and free trade, I think that's crucial. It's crucial for the Western Hemisphere, too. I think when it comes to the real volatile landscape of the globe, you need partners within your backyard that you're able to go to, especially because I think it may be great to be able to have everything homegrown, but is that the reality of the world? I'm not so sure. So I think you have to build relationships where you can and make compromise where you can as well. So he's like really concerned about things like lumber and trying to price that now as this sort of continues to blow up.

10:49Yeah, strikes me as a very reasonable and measured voice. But also the thing about this trade war and kind of Donald Trump's presidency in general is it's been so unpredictable, right? Businesses thrive off of consistency, off of stability that essentially doesn't exist in this administration. Louis, let's talk a little bit about Iowa. You were there speaking with farmers. How did their attitudes towards these tariffs compare to what we just heard from Katie's interview? Yeah, and farmers are very important for Donald Trump. You know, he talks about them all the time, like in rural America, he really needs them.

11:35$16 billion is important. Yeah, absolutely. So it's interesting how the farmers I met, I went to the Iowa State Fair. It's the biggest, one of the biggest and one of the oldest in the United States, a million visitors each year. I was able to see a hug beauty contest there. It was quite amazing. I didn't know that they had the spray net for hugs. And I can see you at the Iowa State Fair on Radio Canada. Yes. Because these are images that I'm picturing in my head, but I actually want to see. I want to see the hog that won. Well, you'll see it. It's coming out this week. Did you get to interact with the winning hog?

12:10I saw the champion. Yeah, no, it's all great stuff. But what was even more interesting, what was the farmers had to say, of course, it's interesting how they would openly talk about the impact of the tariff dispute that it had on their business. So that's a lot. Like even just gas for tractors, machinery, their pickup, and they have a lot of travel and driving to do in rural areas. So that first price of fertilizers going up for sure. Also, this, you know, rocky curb of demand for grain with the dispute with China, even the tariffs on Canada, parts of tractors. And it's like it's a big impact.

12:47Their margin has took a hit. And they would talk about that very openly. But what's really strike me is that they would not necessarily then turn and criticize directly the president for that or criticize his policies. They see that as an other challenge as the weather would be for a farmer, you know. And so I was surprised as much as how much they don't necessarily politicize everything. Some of them said, you know, it's necessary to get a level playing field. So it was very more nuanced than I expected it to be when I got there. I thought people would just be very frustrated and say, I will never vote for that guy again.

13:26But no. Why? Because also, and you'll see it in the clip we're about to play, sometimes values, conservative values, just win over the politics. Often tied to the kind of farming community. Yes. So you can listen to Brett Waterbeck. He's an Iowa farmer. Everything costs too much. Yeah. Yeah, margins are very tight right now with the row crop side of it. Cattle side of it, the profits have been good on that end of it. But yeah, the inputs to go into what raise corn and soybeans is so expensive that there really ain't much money in that side of the business right now. I'd probably have to stay with the Republican Party, in my opinion.

14:15Even if there was some policies that... I'm more of a conservative kind of guy, you know, stuff like that. So that's kind of where I'm at. And I also spoke with another farmer, April. She owns and manages 1 ,000-acre farms. And she's going through the same issues, fertilizer prices. It's very expensive for her. She was a bit more critical. She said trade should not be used as a weapon, you know, because we need stability. But at the same time, she wouldn't tell me who she would vote for and she would not criticize the president. They don't want to make it political. So for me, it's what's going to happen in the voting booth.

14:52You know, is there real frustration? My feeling is that a lot of Republicans will not turn around and vote Democrat there. But will they go out to vote? And I think that's the biggest danger for the Republicans and Donald Trump's party is that will the base remain mobilized? or are they disenfranchised with what happened and what the hit they took in their affairs? So that's where I think there's a gray zone that we'll have to be careful looking at in the next few weeks. And I got that same sense talking to Ohio Republicans, people who identified as Republicans. It's, I think, a bridge too far for many of them to change their vote to Democrat.

15:28But will they show up? Because a lot of this stuff, it's very sticky in their brains around woke politics and these types of culture wars. That stuff is so ingrained, I think, in a lot of Republicans that even though they may otherwise want to have one word that kept coming up to me was pragmatism. I'm a pragmatic Republican. Even so, they're not going to change their vote for a government that might have a different trade policy necessarily. They are still going to vote Republican or perhaps not at all. And that is the danger, right? Yeah, turnout is always such a big question mark when it comes to especially midterm elections.

16:11And it's really historically the party that can get the vote out, mobilize that base, get them to the voting booth that will ultimately be victorious. And how the independents go to and how they sway, because they're going to be swaying the next election, too. So that's going to be the big thing. And they're also looking at all of these primary races where it's far left Democrats that are sort of getting in. And so that's not going to win their votes either. Right. So, yeah, it is going to be a very interesting two months. Yes. Just two months. Two months and a little bit of change.

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17:24Today, there was an Ipsos Reid poll released. That's today, Tuesday. We're, of course, recording this on Tuesday early afternoon. Now, this poll essentially asked roughly 1 ,000 Americans from across the political spectrum about these new tariffs that have been imposed on Canada. And the results were a little interesting, perhaps not all that surprising and maybe even encouraging from a Canadian perspective. 57 % reported that they were opposed to these additional U.S. tariffs on Canada, and 68 % people reported that they most closely agree with the statement that, quote, the U.S. should be willing to make tradeoffs with Canada, even if it means it doesn't get most of what it wants, end quote.

18:14So how does this compare to what you both heard on the ground? We'll go to Katie first. Very much in line with what I was hearing from people in Ohio is there, I think there's a certain sense of it being, one word that kept coming up when I talked to people was nonsensical. No rhyme or reason. Again, pragmatism was a thing that people, it's not pragmatic, this ongoing trade war, the way that everything has escalated and not pragmatic from a business's perspective, because how do you plan? How do you stay afloat? You're constantly reworking your books and your supply chain. So all of that sort of has created this antipathy and exhaustion.

18:54All of these businesses that I spoke to and just people in Ohio felt very much caught in the crossfire of something that's happening up here at a political level. And they just want it to be fixed. They would welcome a return to just reopening Kuzma talks, all of that. They just want some sense of normalcy and a chance to plan. And also, people are just, they don't want this type of heightened rhetoric with the neighbor. There are marriages across the border, there are families across the border, these long-term relationships that this has just frayed all of that. But the question remains also is that how much that will count when comes the time to vote?

19:35Is that the issue that will mobilize them? And I remember speaking with a gentleman at the Iowa State Fair, and I was asking, well, what do you think about going after Canada like this? And he's like, well, I don't really know why he does that. You know, China, I would understand, but why Canada? But does that mean that for that person, I could feel that it was not central to his thinking. You know, he had to be asked about it. He's not going to not vote one way or the other because of this. Like we are also the nose on the tree in Canada. We were looking at it and we were like, oh, man, this is the biggest single issue.

20:04But for a lot of regular Americans, like it's more the price of gas. It's more the price of groceries. Yeah. And trade war with Canada is kind of there, but it's not like right in the middle. So that's also what we have to. So people have sympathy for Canada. They don't necessarily agree, as the poll says. But is that the issue that will mobilize them? And I agree with you because it's I think people see it more as a symptom as opposed of the cause. And there's like a whole bunch of other symptoms that they're looking at, including the war with Iran, that sort of thing. Right. So that that only issue is not necessarily disqualifying for Trump.

20:36But I think it's maybe an ensemble. Then you that's maybe adding to other, you know, cost issue, cost of living issue. That's in the ensemble where it hurts are certainly problematic for Trump. The price of gas is still stubbornly high. Groceries also high. Inflation above the target. Still above the target. Right. Jameson Greer, I saw a quote from him today where basically saying that negotiations had not restarted in part because it was a bigger. This is more of a Canada issue. They're the ones who need to fix this. Perhaps true. But I think, again, and you brought up the Iran war, there are so many fires right now that this administration is trying to put out.

21:16But most of them self-created. And you rightfully pointed out, Louis, the tariff issue is so central right now to what's going on in Canada. It is essentially the only story in the country. But it is one of maybe a half dozen really significant stories all taking place right now in the U.S., all potentially impactful come November. This is an administration that has a lot going on at the moment. And on the subject of those said midterm elections, let's talk about some specific races to watch for. Katie, in Ohio, there's a Senate seat up for grabs. Yes. So this is the seat that was vacated by J.D.

22:05Vance. The Republican governor put in John Husted, who is now running against Sherrod Brown, who is a known Democratic entity in Ohio. Former Senator. Former Representative. He had also had sort of numerous roles at the state level as well. What's interesting, there's a Fox poll came out over August, just one poll, that showed the Democrats ahead by eight points. Now, other polling shows them more neck and neck, right? But that is something that is being seen in Ohio right now where Democrats are appearing to be even in the governor's race. Amy Acton versus Vivek Ramaswamy, it's much more neck and neck, very competitive.

22:47So the question is, and again, is the Canada trade war going to be the single driving factor? Probably not. It's one of myriad of issues, but it is in people's minds. And it is interesting, everything that could be seen as giving the Democrats a little bit more of a lift, this is playing into that, right? And they are competitive in this election. I mean, Ohio did go for Obama two years in a row, but it has been pretty solidly red since then. And it is interesting to sort of see a potential sea of change in this Senate seat. That is one of those Senate seats Democrats are looking for to try to take control back of that chamber.

23:25I do think geography as well plays a role in where the tariff war will kind of be more impactful in terms of the vote. Ohio is one of those states I often forget. It's a border state. I mean, it borders a lake, but that lake borders Canada, of course. So perhaps that geography will make the tariffs there more of a driving factor in the election. Louis, you were in Iowa, not a border state, but still a state where these tariffs can play. Yeah, that depends a lot of Canada for trade. That's interesting because there's a Senate seat that is more competitive than it could have been a few years ago.

24:06It's very tight. this is Chuck Grassley, who is almost, what, 93? And then it's Ashley Inson who's trying to keep the seat red. There's a Democratic adjuster, who's just, you know, right there. And it's going to be a tight race. Governors race, too, between Rob Sand and Zach Lon. And it's so tight races. The Democrats are trying to paint more blue on this Iowa map. They really hope they can do something there. And keep in mind, that is a state that Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024. 13. 13, yes. And he won the last three presidential election in Iowa. So that's big. So the fact that most of these races are like in the statistical margin tells you a lot about what's going on on the ground.

24:51So we'll see where it goes. Independent voters will have a word to say there. And it's interesting because I met by luck the governor's candidate, the Republican candidate for governor, Zach Lund, when I was there. And I was talking with some regular people. He just walked by. I said, oh, can we ask a few questions about tariffs in Canada? And his line, his messaging is very in line with Donald Trump. Still, even if he knows that some farmers in his state suffer from this, let's listen to him. What would be your message to Canadians who are a bit disappointed with what's happening right now? Well, I think that you have to look at the long-term history of all this stuff.

25:26You look at NAFTA, there's a lot of farmers that are disappointed about that in the United States. And so we're just trying to balance the playing field here. And so I think that all we can ask for is it to be fair. My question is, once the midterms pass by, if the Republicans hit the wall, with that kind of messaging shift or will some candidates like that towards 2028 will start taking their distance with the president's policy? That's what I can't wait to see, because for now, everybody sticks together, everybody holding the line. But like the more as we go and after the midterm with that change, that's going to be something I'm going to be looking for.