Why can’t Trump leave Canada alone?

0:00The United States is about to mark its 250th anniversary.

0:05Katie Simpson:And so on the Global Story podcast from the BBC, we're telling surprising tales of American influence on the world stage and in ordinary people's lives all across the globe. We have this ability to export our story and a lot of people have bought it. I feel like the American dream is alive, but not well. From the BBC, it's the United States at 250. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or find us on YouTube. This is a CBC Podcast. Willie, I'm so grateful we're sitting next to each other because when we do not bother each other at our desks or here in the podcast studio, I feel like I'm missing something in my life.

0:42So I'm so glad we're back together again.

0:44Katie Simpson:I feel complete. And Mike, welcome. Welcome into the space two weeks in a row. I love being on the pod. It's fun. We do have a good time. We give her, as the kids say. And if I don't say give her, Willie's not ready to record the podcast. It's true. It's true. So this week, we're going to have a conversation about something that a lot of Canadians are having a conversation about. And it is Donald Trump. He just can't seem to stop talking about Canada and in particular right now, Canadian wildfires. A couple of weeks ago, he started toying with the idea that Canada needs to be punished for the smoky conditions in some U.S.

1:18states. And late last week, he repeated that idea.

1:21Katie Simpson:We're going to put a big tariff on Canada because of the smoke. All right. Yeah, the smoke wrecks my daughter's swim meet. Well, it's closed up a lot of countries. I've told Canada they have to do something about it. You know, we've never had this problem. All of a sudden, we have this problem with Canada. And just this past weekend, Trump posted an AI-generated image to social media that features essentially a giant air filter wall dividing the U.S. and Canada. But this is not the only bone Trump has to pick with Canada lately. There are, of course, the new tariffs that are due to kick in on August the 19th that we talked about last week.

2:00There's the Gordie Howe International Bridge that finally opened on Monday between Windsor and Detroit. But that only happened after Trump threatened to block the opening, unless the U.S. got a better share of the profits. Yes, Canada is, as we keep hearing, one of only two countries that has retaliated against the U.S. president's tariffs. But a lot of Canadians think that it sure seems like Trump really has it in for our country lately. And so this week, we want to explore that a little more. I'm prepared for it. I've got my two blocks from the White House mug that Paul Hunter bought for us, and I've stuck a very large iced coffee inside it.

2:37We are ready. We are caffeinated. And we are asking, why can't Canada escape Trump's wrath?

2:43Katie Simpson:I'm Mike Crawley. I'm Willie Lowry. And I'm Katie Simpson. We are CBC's Washington Correspondents, two blocks from the White House.

2:56Okay, Willie, it sort of seems like lately Canada can't really seem to catch a break when it comes to Donald Trump.

3:04Katie Simpson:Yeah, he is the proverbial, or Canada, I should say, is the proverbial punching bag for him. I think he sees them as low-hanging fruit without a whole lot of political cost. And he likes kind of stoking fires. He likes poking fun. It's kind of part of his personality. And some of it even resonates with the base, right? They like the tough macho talk that he can kind of put forward towards Canada. And then again, when it comes to tariffs, we have to at least accept and realize that they are a huge part of his economic policy, a huge part of his agenda. We're in this moment where the threat of tariffs is it sort of seems to be constant.

3:54But there's there's this new one that really is emerging to the forefront. And, Mike, let's get into this. It's the tariffs related to wildfire smoke. Where are we on that issue? So where we're at is that this is still just a threat, and that's really important to get across. It first came up when the smoke was particularly heavy over some big U.S. cities like Detroit, Chicago. Eventually, it was down to New York and even here in Washington. You had these Republican politicians started from politicians in Michigan who wrote a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney. Trump piled on, a U.S. senator from Ohio piled on with a threat of actual sanctions against Canadian government officials and Canadian diplomats.

4:42And there was this tone, like an accusation underneath it all that the smoke and the forest fires are Canada's fault, that Canada isn't doing enough to manage its forests properly. Blame Canada, as the song says. Blame Canada. Cue the music right now. Cue the South Park track.

5:15Katie Simpson:And I just want to point out, I looked online. Canada has close to 900 active fires. The U.S. has close to 600 active fires. And I was going to bring this up is that like now you kind of have heard a little less about it because the smoke has pretty much dissipated. But the forecast, I was looking ahead to the next few days, smoke is coming in towards the northeast again. So this is going to come up. The good news for Canadians is the guts of that smoke is coming from Oregon and Washington. Does that necessarily mean the candidate isn't going to get blamed for it? I don't really know. And one other final point.

5:54Blue states might get blamed. Yeah, they might. Tariff the blue states. One other final point I want to make is that what actual legal authority, and I don't want to sound too deep in the weeds about this, but what legal basis would Trump have to put tariffs on Canada over wildfire smoke? That is extremely unclear. I say leave it to the creativity of this White House. I bet if they can try and track down a legal justification, whether it gets stopped in the courts, whatever it is, I bet that they can find some kind of provision that would be unprecedented, never used before, and say this Canadian smoke is discriminating against American businesses and we've got to take action on this.

6:39Katie Simpson:I think that's probably a challenge that Jameson Greer, the U.S. state representative, he's up for it. He is. So, you know, with that context in mind, Willie, if we look at Trump's history when it comes to these kinds of big, bold threats, you know, should Canadians be bracing for the possibility that he actually tries to follow through on this? Yes, because I think he's demonstrated to be himself to be so unpredictable that you just can't know for sure. Right. So I think as a government, as a people, you need to be kind of prepared for all eventualities. And again, I go back to the point that time and time again, over the last 18 months, Trump and his team have basically shown that tariffs are their driving force from an economic policy agenda perspective.

7:34Katie Simpson:And we see that through Jamison Greer and his kind of ability to go so far back into U.S. trade law to find reasons and justifications to continue placing tariffs on countries. Can I make the counterpoint that I think the threats will continue? But not necessarily the tariffs? Not necessarily the follow through. You can also point to these things that have just been Trump throwing stuff out on social media, saying a thing to reporters in the Oval or on Air Force One where he's floated ideas that that that an actual specific threats about about imposing tariffs. Does anybody remember when there was suddenly going to be 50 % tariffs on Canadian-made aircraft?

8:22Like that one got floated. Never actually happened. So I'm not trying to say, hey, everything's going to be fine. But there has been a pattern of him making threats that he hasn't followed through on. That's true. It's the unpredictable nature, I think, that really speaks to the moment, right? And I think that's why these new 50 % tariffs that the Trump administration announced last week targeting some$28 billion worth of Canadian goods, that's what makes that stand out so different is because we are so used to at this point Donald Trump coming out with these big threats. What am I going to tariff?

9:00What am I going to annex? What am I going to go after? Is it Greenland? Is it Canada? Is it all of these different kinds of things that he says so frequently? But what really stood out to me last week in the conversation we had last week is that this is a plan from Jameson Greer, who is you could seriously argue that Jameson Greer of all the members of Donald Trump's cabinet. He is the most serious. He's the most experienced. He's he's a very serious, focused individual who knows how to who knows the law and knows how to use it. And the conversations that I've had with them is I had a few opportunities to speak with them on a trip that I was in in Ohio and Michigan back in the spring.

9:38And the way I described it is that like he presents the tariffs in a very rational way. Like you can see how Canadians would disagree, but the arguments that he put forward don't have the kind of exaggerated bluster of Trump. It's a very rational, this is why we're doing this. This is what our objective is. But the way they sort of present it and something that both you two have sort of touched on here, they frame it as Canada is being sort of targeted in this moment because the way they see it, Canada has been given the best treatment of any other country in the world. They view it as Canada.

10:20Okay, tariffs are being announced on all American trading partners, but goods that are KUSMA compliant or USMCA compliant, as they call it down here in the United States, the Canada-US-Mexico free trade agreement, those goods can continue to pass through tariff free. And that is an exception that other countries and other trading partners don't get to have. And so their argument is you guys have been treated the best in the world and then you went and retaliated. And so Canada has taken its position. Canada has retaliated. The province is working in whatever, making different decisions about bans on alcohol, those kinds of things.

10:57The Americans take exception to the fact that Canada stood up. Canada's one of two countries. They frequently pointed out Canada and China, the only two to retaliate and that they think that you have been given or the argument they present, which I know it will upset Canadians because Canadians feel they are being treated very unfairly. But from that American Trump administration perspective is we've treated you better than anyone else and you're still hitting us back. And so that's where it is. And there is a grain of truth to this idea that Canada has among the best deals in the world, and that's just borne out by the math.

11:30If you take a look at research that's been done by these organizations that literally pump in all the numbers and come up with a figure of this is effectively how much a country is paying in tariffs as a proportion of their exports. The lowest rates in the world are Canada and Mexico. So even with the steel and aluminum tariffs, even with all of the other tariffs on Canada, yes, we do have the best deal. That doesn't necessarily mean that the retaliation isn't justified because, of course, they're retaliating because we have a free trade deal with the U.S. that is supposed to allow material to cross the border without tariffs.

12:17Katie Simpson:I think that, you know, you raise a really good point, Mike, because the whole point is, yes, we might have the best deal, but we don't have the deal that we already signed and agreed upon. The Americans are not living up to the deal that Donald Trump wants called the gold standard of trade deals, right? So like that's, that is, and how can you do predictable business? How can you do predictable trade and grow your economy in the way you're used to growing your economy when the rules, you don't know what the rules of the road are. And it's, that's, that's sort of the moment we are in. But I feel like rules of the road is like a really good segue.

12:47because I think it's time.

12:49Katie Simpson:I'm impressed. Oh, thank you. I worked on that so hard. It's because I'm drinking my coffee. I'm having a lot of caffeine. Are we about to cross that bridge, Katie? We are about to cross that bridge. We are going to mention the Gordie Howe Bridge. You two are sharp. I am so caffeinated right now. It's alarming. The thing is, I don't know about you two, but I was waiting on Monday to see if cars were actually going to cross that bridge. Mike, didn't you think it was actually going to happen after the way Trump talked about it? I figured it had to happen. Like it was it clearly was just going to be a matter of time.

13:23Trump had this deal, which we can talk about a little bit more, that he could wave around and say, hey, I got a better deal than than there was before. And look, a lot of Michigan industry in Michigan wanted that bridge open. You know, that affects U.S. trade and traffic as well. So, you know, I was I would have not not bet any money. I'm not a gambler, but I certainly wouldn't bet anything on it actually opening. But I wasn't surprised to see it open. Mike, I'm shocked to learn you're not a gambler.

13:56Katie Simpson:You know, I meant to check it like the Polymarket. I didn't see the... Oh, but whether it was going to open? Yeah, yeah. That would have been something. Willie, did you think it was going to open? Are there lessons Canada can learn from this moment? I thought it was going to open. It was literally built. It was done. And so, yeah, I had more confidence than you, Katie, that it was going to open. But perhaps that's unfounded because, you know, I think we go back to it again. Donald Trump is nothing but unpredictable. I think the whole episode around the bridge just illustrates how easy it is for a country, whether the country does anything or not, how you can accidentally step in it.

14:39And the bridge opening originally was supposed to happen. What was it? But it was delayed. Yeah, it was delayed. And it was my understanding is that when people sent out invitations to the ceremony, that it sort of riled things up on the it got the attention of people who were not invested in the bridge reopening and perhaps had competing visions for where money could be made on another bridge. And it sort of got to that attention and the Trump administration stepped in. What are we talking about here? We're talking about the family connected to the Ambassador Bridge, concerns that this new bridge, the Gordie Howe Bridge, is going to take revenue away.

15:17And reaching out to Howard Lutnick, who is Donald Trump's Commerce Secretary, to have his ear, to then have the president's ear to say, hey, wait a minute. And then we end up seeing the Canadian government making some concessions to ensure that, OK, we've got to get this bridge open and we're going to have to have a moment here. We have to sort of make changes to originally what the plan was. And it illustrates that how quickly something can change when someone knows how to pull a lever of power. It's interesting that Howard Lutnick, who Katie just mentioned, is really selling the new deal as a big deal.

15:53Right. So he put out a post on X calling it a great deal. Before this deal, we got nothing in all capital letters, which is actually not correct. They did get something. Now the U.S. gets 50 percent of net revenues until 2041 and a say in setting the tolls. This is the art of the deal in action. So it was very much like promoting, hey, Donald Trump did this.

16:28The United States is about to mark its 250th anniversary.

16:33Katie Simpson:And so on the Global Story podcast from the BBC, we're telling surprising tales of American influence on the world stage and in ordinary people's lives all across the globe. We have this ability to export our story and a lot of people have bought it. I feel like the American dream is alive, but not well. From the BBC, it's the United States at 250. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or find us on YouTube. So, you know, these are just a few of the irritants at this moment, but it really seems to be that Canada continually becomes a punching bag for Donald Trump. And where sort of the stakes are sort of highest is will Kuzma, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement, be renewed?

17:16Earlier this morning, earlier today, we're having this conversation on Tuesday afternoon. Donald Trump was asked about the renewal or the ongoing process related to that. But again, you have to keep in mind that in the United States, it's called USMCA. They put the US first, US-Mexico-Canada deal. But in Canada, we call it Kuzma. Donald Trump sort of put into jeopardy where those talks are headed. So the USMCA, are you looking to update that? I don't care. I mean, I don't really want to.

17:45Katie Simpson:I'd rather be independent. Here's the thing. Mexico and Canada need us. We don't need them. The deal is important for them. It's not important for us. Does that surprise either of you? He has said as much before. He's tried to dismiss USMCA as a big deal that he doesn't care about it. I'm just going to throw out a couple of numbers, not too many, but$775 billion of investment. With a B there. With a B has come into the U.S. as a direct result of USMCA in the six years since it came in, right? It supports 13 million jobs, right? The USMCA actually does matter to the US economy. Trump can say it doesn't matter to him personally.

18:34But as Katie mentioned, he called it the gold standard, the best trade deal in history when he signed it. So he thinks he does protest too much. You know what? I'm going to take an opposite counterpoint on that. I think that Donald Trump wants individual trade deals with countries. I don't know if the three-way deal is going to work for him anymore. I don't think what he said in the first go-round really matters anymore. And I think that we live in a world where the unexpected becomes the norm, right?

19:03Katie Simpson:Katie, because I know you covered the Kuzma negotiations pretty extensively. Did the U.S. silo the conversations, the negotiations between U.S. Canada and U.S. Mexico as much as they're doing this time? So, yes, but yes and no. So there were joint rounds where everyone went together and we covered them. And a lot of the things were in the U.S. But when it came down time to sign, the U.S. and Mexico announced they had reached a deal and Canada was not a part of that. So there was this wild scene in the Oval Office where I believe it was – I think it was AMLO. Donald Trump's got him on speaker, the Mexican president.

19:46He's got him on speaker and they're announcing this trade deal and Canada's not there. And then a month later, Canada agreed to sign on.

19:54Katie Simpson:My big takeaway from from what we're seeing now, and it goes back to the point that you made earlier, Katie, is that clearly Trump sees bilateral negotiations, bilateral deals more favorably than these trilateral deals. And I think in part it's because it gives, you know, he has more leverage over. What can he do to create the most favorable terms? Exactly. I think that as we take a step back, so this is the Canadian experience right now. But, you know, as we sort of look into this moment, do we think that there are other countries that are doing it better than Canada, that there could be some learning?

20:34Katie Simpson:Like, not really. I mean, sure, Canada is receiving a disproportionate amount of Trump's attention, but the end results are pretty much the same. You look at Mexico, which, of course, famously chose not to retaliate with the tariffs. They still don't have a deal. You look at the European Union. They now have a deal that went into effect, I think, at the beginning of this month. But they're not, you know, in a demonstrably better place either. Mike, what do you think? At the risk of bringing up a false comparison, you know, and maybe some Canadians are going to get angry at me for saying this. But sure, we're being used as a punching bag.