High Stakes Summit, New Zealand’s Talent Troubles, Stablecoin Adoption, Sparkling Water Boom

25:58Basically investment can do the same. So one of the reasons why you see less Australians coming over is their investment comes into New Zealand, but then they stay in Australia and has someone running the operation here but they domicile the the operation in Australia so look it's a challenge there's no question about that but then you've had isolated parts of the country like if you look at say Queenstown it's had enormous connectivity with Australia deemed to be you know kind of beautiful the aspen of the south it's attracted enormous number of migrants both from the United States United Kingdom but Australia and you are seeing net positive net migration there so it's not it's not every place but it's certainly been hardest felt in Auckland where people have left I think.

26:45New Zealand's government has also introduced a range of measures including active investor visas for wealthy foreigners and tax incentives for investment. It's not yet driven the sort of economic opportunities to attract Kiwis back home. But for now, Key says New Zealand should lean into what it's known for. It can be a little bit negative, but I don't know, I look at New Zealand and say, okay, yeah, I understand a lot, but we're five million people. We really are the last bus stop on the planet, but we're kind of a paradise as well. In a world where there's global insecurity, we seem like a really safe place.

27:21We are incredibly beautiful. I mean, there's a lot of things going for New Zealand so I'm kind of of the view to say yeah we need to acknowledge that the economy needs to be a bit stronger and create more opportunities but let's not sort of panic that all is not fixable at least in New Zealand because I actually believe it is. In terms of actually fixing these problems I think yeah like in a nutshell we need to be looking at things that will actually attract young people back to the country I think so many people have left now it's not going to be good enough to just stop them leaving. We actually need to look at things that will bring people back.

27:57And for my generation, like the main problems are being able to afford property, being able to have kids, job stability, you know, AI's ruining job stability for a lot of people. So I think our government should be looking at ways to sort of guarantee that if you work hard in New Zealand, you'll actually be able to have a good quality of life, which is not the current situation over there. Up next, President Trump likes them, and the Genius Act provides a U.S. law to regulate them. But what is the real use case for stablecoins, and how much will they transform the banking system?

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31:49This is a story about cutting through the noise. I think Bitcoin is the king of this market. It will remain the king of this market. I'm laser-like focused on Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is digital capital. I think it's gonna outperform the S &P index over the indefinite future. There was nothing that couldn't be done in crypto. Better, faster, cheaper, more transparently. There's been a lot of noise about cryptocurrencies. It's sometimes hard to sort out the crypto noise from the signal. But whatever the reality behind all the hype, there is one particular version of cryptocurrency that is growing in use, that seeks to deliver on the promise of combining the speed and ease of blockchain with the relative stability of currencies and that you may be using without even knowing it.

32:31According to supporters, 2025 was the year of the stablecoin. In five years or 10 years, the overwhelming majority of the payments that happen in the world just by sheer number of payments are happening via stablecoins. It can be fundamental to changing not just the financial system, but the way the broader economic system works. And as of last year, the stablecoin subset of crypto now has the regulatory backing of the U.S. This could be perhaps the greatest revolution in financial technology since the birth of the Internet itself. A lot of people are saying that. I don't know. What do you guys think?

33:07Yes. The answer to President Trump's question may lie in the wallets of people around the world who simply want to send money across national borders. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the total amount of money sent using stablecoins will reach over$56 trillion by 2030. But however big it ultimately gets, it's starting small, with many people sending just a few hundred dollars at a time. People like Hannah Nicole Danoy. I have been living in New York for eight years, and I am a restaurant manager. I sent money home to the Philippines, I would say about like between$500 to$1 ,000 a month. I prefer sending money home through apps like World Remit or Remitly.

33:52Danoy is one of two million Filipinos living abroad. Together, they sent$35 billion back to the Philippines in 2025, equal to over 7 % of the country's GDP. For Wei Zhou, the CEO of Philippine-based CoinsPH, this is stablecoin's biggest opportunity. Ten years ago, the cost of remittance for every dollar, it was 8%. With technology, with better connectivity and banking rails, that cost went down to like 2 % to 4%. By using stablecoins, we can lower that cost to anywhere between 0.5 % or 50 bps. And we hope to lower that even to like 20 to 30 bps. When you're running$40 billion remittance, for every 1 % that you save, that's like$400 million that goes back into the people's pockets right away.

34:38CoinsPH partners with online money transfer platforms to bring stablecoins to users' wallets. It partners with, among others, Remitly. Its CEO is Sebastian Gunningham. Every time that you do a send transaction, we have a transaction engine that chooses the best way to send that money at low cost and at speed. So we use the stablecoin rails. The machine decides, is the stablecoin rails better, faster, cheaper than any alternative? And therefore we use it. So we're adopting it where it makes sense, where it beats price, where it beats speed. This process is called a stablecoin sandwich. A user in the U.S.

35:19deposits dollars with Remitly, which converts the funds into stablecoins. These stablecoins travel instantly across a blockchain to CoinsPH in the Philippines, where they are converted into local pesos. Although users can hold the stablecoins in a digital wallet, But for most, the blockchain path is entirely invisible. Customers interact only with the dollars at one end and the pesos at the other end, enjoying the speed of crypto without the complexity of managing it. We have crypto, we have stablecoins. There's been a fair amount of volatility in cryptocurrencies. Does that affect stablecoins?

35:53For stablecoins, it is moving towards sort of, you know, just another word for money. Stablecoins are a type of crypto, right? But it's sort of like it has grown out of crypto and can be its own segment now. What do you regard as your largest opportunity for growth? Basically, lowering the transaction costs and then decreasing the transaction time to move money in and out of the Philippines. I think right now what we see is that there's like almost 15 to 20 million Filipinos that work overseas, either as domestic helpers, work on cruise liners, as factory workers in the Middle East and Korea and Japan.

36:29And the financial services they need are actually back home in the Philippines, whereas they get paid in the local dollar. We really believe that by sort of using stablecoins as sort of the conduit, we can actually be able to deliver financial services that they need at home here in the Philippines while working overseas. Last year, some estimates put the volume of stablecoin transactions at around$35 trillion. But a new report from McKinsey's Matt Higginson suggests the reality is much more modest. How large is the stablecoin market right now and how fast is it growing? So you'll hear in the media the trillions of dollars of stablecoin payments today.

37:1099 % of that is crypto related, not the sort of payments we think about, which is company to company or even paying remittances person to person. And so we look at this situation today and say, how much real payments volume is there out there? And we think it's probably the order of a billion or two a day, which is tiny. The latest estimates we have are$390 billion in the total year. And that compares with several trillion dollars of regular payments per day. So a small amount right now. How does it compare with last year? And how does it compare with forecasts for next year? The data shows that the volume of real payment transactions using stable coins probably doubled over the last year.

37:55When you look at the volume of stablecoins in circulation, that went from around$150 billion to$300 billion today. It's doubling, which by any measure is substantial in terms of growth. How much of that is cross-border, international essentially? How much of it is domestic? The vast majority is cross-border. It's interesting, we've been looking at the geographic source of those payments with our research partner, Artemis Analytics. what they found is about 60 % originates from Asia. And that surprised us a little bit because a lot of the talk has been in North America or Europe about the potential of stablecoins.

38:33Asia was one of the first regions to recognize the utility of stablecoins and became a frontrunner in regulating the space. For over a decade, Subnendu Mahante was the chief fintech officer at the Monetary Authority of Singapore, where he built the country's digital asset strategy. The single biggest unsolved challenge in the world of payment is the cross-border payments, where today we have to depend on traditional correspondent bank. In that particular use case, a stablecoin is a great product. Singapore generally is recognized as a leader in the use of and regulation of stablecoin. Why? Why Singapore?

39:12As a country, we look at options, innovation, and we actually relentlessly focus on use case. We don't do technology for sake of technology. In Singapore's case, our focus on stablecoin has always been well-regulated stablecoin issued under a strong regulatory framework. Japan and Singapore were among the first to establish a framework requiring companies to maintain liquid reserves representing 100 % of the stablecoins they issued. Mahanti says robust regulation must lead the way for stablecoin to scale. The principle of regulation should not change because payment is a payment. Know your customer.

39:53Money laundering, terrorism, financing checks are, I would say, hygienes. They are like non-negotiable. I personally believe an existing payment regulation with some incremental coverage for a stablecoin's unique technical requirement is good enough regulation to manage this risk. And payment companies agree. Regulatory clarity allows companies to bring the product to more customers. Scale matters, which means once you have the infrastructure, we can move$100 billion a year in that infrastructure, but we could also move$1 trillion a year without much more. Building trust is expensive. Doing compliance is expensive.

40:38Getting the license is expensive. Once you put all that in place, it's a highly scalable business. Today, stablecoins are still small players against a colossal banking system, but they are gaining momentum, with growth expected to speed up as the Genius Act in the United States comes into effect. The Genius Act will come into force by the end of the year and other regulations I expect will follow. So we haven't really gone live yet at scale. So I think we have a little time before that train leaves the station. The sobering part of that is when it does leave the station, we're going to have adoption at scale.

41:14We've got groups of banks, potentially dozens of banks, suddenly all participating together. And I think there will be a bit of a scramble to position myself as a bank between stablecoin and customer to provide the best interface. What does your success potentially mean for traditional banks? There was one bank here in the Philippines that was like top 10, maybe like sixth or seventh. but because they were the only one or the first one to bank exchanges like ourselves, they're now a top three bank. Fast is nice, but when it comes to our money, there's also something to be said for slow. So sable coins is something I would be willing to try.

41:55It's just going to be a matter of convenience and then I'm just not too educated about it. I would also consider if it's also going to be convenient with my family because they're not really tech savvy. So I want to make sure that it's going to be easy for them as well. Trusting an app is really important for me because it's my hard-earned money. The use of stablecoin for cross-border transfers is more for small and medium-sized businesses rather than big businesses. Why don't the big businesses use it for that purpose? Well, I used to joke that if one thing you don't want to be instant and quick, it is large transfers.

42:28Because nobody is looking to instantly transfer$5 million. You want to be as slow as possible, as friction in between so that you don't make mistakes. But you don't want to apply those principles on a small$200 transfer across the border because you're taking a speed versus the amount calibrated risk here. I've been in crypto for about eight years. And then, you know, when I first came in, I was like, oh, like, let's go unbanked. You know, like, you know, let's take it to Wall Street. but now I've been in industry for such a long time, I've come to appreciate the role that banks serve. Right, like sometimes you just feel safer with your money in a bank, right, in a vault.

43:11And they've been attacked left, right, front and center by all kinds of bad actors. But I think for them to grow, I think those that embrace this technology, embrace stablecoins, I think is gonna grow, leaps and downs faster than those that do not. Work with us and grow together, or you can continue just to be a bank. Technology might be driving us all toward a future that's faster, cheaper, and more convenient. But it's not necessarily for everyone or for every transaction. And for stablecoins to reach their full potential, they may need more regulation, with the aim of fitting in to the legacy banking system rather than replacing it.

43:53Coming up, from spindrift to liquid death, grocery shelves are packed with every kind of carbonated water. Why so many and how many will survive?

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47:27This is a story about saturation. Walk down the aisle of your favorite food store and you're likely to find more varieties of bubbly waters than you can count. Everything from LaCroix to Spindrift, not to mention Liquid Death and Waterloo and a host of others. Why do we need so many variations of what is essentially water? And why is there room in the marketplace for so many competitors? The whole beverage category is atomized. At the end of the day, there's almost so much real estate in that grocery store that you go shopping down. Dave Berwick is now CEO of higher-end fruit-infused sparkling watermaker Spindrift.

48:08After serving as CEO of Pete's Coffee and Boston Beer and spending 20 years at Pepsi. All those brands have to prove themselves to those retailers who own those shelves that they're worthy of being on that shelf. So again, it's what makes the category really challenging. For me, it's what I love about the category because nothing worth doing in life is really easy. And this is not easy. If it's hard to succeed in the carbonated water business, why are so many companies going into it? Part of the answer is that it is easy to get a foot in the door. Adam Wagley is co-founder and CEO of Butterfly, a venture investment firm focused on all areas of the food industry.

48:52It's become a lot easier, a lot lower barriers to entry to creating these brands than ever before because the infrastructure around creating these brands has enabled that, you know, in the last 10 years that we've kind of gotten into this space. What's used to work in the past is you'd have to kind of do everything yourself from scratch, from kind of developing the brand to developing the formulation, maybe even getting into manufacturing, finding out how to get your product placed, etc. Today, there are many different outsourced businesses that support this ecosystem. So you can, in fact, go to a co-manufacturer who can actually make the product.

49:31They can formulate it for you. They'll usually work with a packaging company that can help you put the packaging together. And then you can go to outsourced marketing organizations that can tell you how to launch a brand online or from a social media standpoint and kind of get going in those kind of formats, if you will. So there's this sort of infrastructure of companies that we call enablers here at Butterfly that actually support the different infrastructure that a founder or CEO needs to go create a business from scratch. The bubbly water business is part of a global beverage market that sold over a trillion dollars worth of soft drinks last year.

50:09More than a third of that was sodas, ubiquitous Cokes, Pepsis, and their brethren. But those soda sales have come down 27 % over the last two decades, giving up market share to various forms of water, which now account for over a quarter of all beverage sales. Carbonated water is only a modest share of that, but it is growing noticeably faster than its peers in the U.S. Among the driving factors, a desire for healthier alternatives to soda. That's what led Nicole Bernard Dawes to launch her product, Nixie. While the snack aisle and the produce aisle, even the dairy aisle, were getting more and more healthier organic products, the beverage aisle was still filled with sugar and plastic and almost no certified organic products.

50:55I really saw an opportunity. And I also really felt it was important to have zero sugar, because I think liquid sugar is just not a healthy thing for anybody. We knew we wanted to be a healthy beverage brand. Like, that's our mission. That's who we are. We started with sparkling water, which we felt was one of the cleanest. We felt it really defined kind of what we were trying to achieve. And then after we got that out into the market, we started working on a zero sugar soda. Zero sugar is still one of the largest drivers of even conventional beverage. For the conventional soda brands, Zero Sugar is their biggest part of the growth for their business.

51:31And I think that also was exciting to me because, you know, when you have a category that large, you know, there's a segment of the population not being served by the products that are the number one or number two products. You're hearing the term modern soda a lot. And if you went into a grocery store, you know, a few years ago, you might have two or three feet for this new type of soda. And now you're going in and you're seeing, you know, chains like Walmart expanding from two feet to eight or 12 feet. That growth of the bubbly water segment makes more attractive a business that's easy to get into in the first place.

52:06A form of making it up on volume. It's a great business, which is why I do it. I mean, I love big categories because, you know, think about it. If you're talking about a$10 billion category, you don't have to be a significant part of that to be a significant business. What is the opportunity you see for Spindrift? When we came in about a year and a half ago, it was about a$300 million business. We'll be close to a half a billion dollar business at the end of this year, so after two years. And I think there's a clear path to a billion dollars and beyond for this brand. The sparkling beverage business is still growing 25 to 30 percent as more people come in.

52:41And when they do come in, they get to try our brand, which we think is better than others, and we like that. But we're also looking at other adjacent categories where we can take sort of that core equity, what Spindrift is, which is real squeezed fruit. How do we take that real squeezed fruit and bring it to other categories? So most recently, we've launched a non-carbonated tea product that we're really excited about. So between the core business of sparkling water, adjacencies like tea, we've also launched a soda, a healthier, better-for-you soda product that can get us to a billion dollars.

53:15It's a growing business segment, but that doesn't mean it's easy to carve out a niche for any particular product, much less succeed over the long term. The concern, though, is there are many out there. And to try to figure out for us as investors which companies are going to last and make it and really create something special, we've got to really be picky about what we get behind because many can kind of get in business. Now, to also scale and get to a substantial level will require a lot more than that. What about price? Where do you want your product to exist in the spectrum on price? We definitely want to exist in the high end.

53:52As we know, it's been much talked about. We're in a K-shaped economy right now. We serve that upper K. We want to bring everybody in, but you want to be in the premium segment. I think you want to focus on gross margin improvement because that's really the oxygen of our business. So when we sell at a premium price point, we can improve our gross margin, then reinvest to grow the brand. And also, interestingly, like within the health and wellness space where we play, we're seeing more and more low and middle income households actually trading up to premium brands when it comes to health and wellness.

54:24And there are very specific ways of measuring, even day to day, how successful a company is, including how it's doing in the water competition wars. Velocity is how many units of your product you sell in each store each week. And I think velocity is the truest measure of success. You can't fake velocity. You can't cheat velocity. If a customer is coming in and buying your product and then they're coming back again next week and buying it again, you can tell the health and success of a brand. And it's how we gauge new products. It's how we gauge new chains. And I think it's very important for brands to watch their velocity closely and make sure that your velocity is where you want it to be.

55:07and if it's not, that you're learning why and fixing it as quickly as possible. Looking at sales, obviously, are we selling in to our retail customers, so to Walmart and to Costco and to Target and all those folks? We get a look at that every day with how the orders are building up. We also want to look at syndicated data. Right now, we only have about 8 % of households that buy us during the course of a year, and that's pretty low, but that's a good thing because that means there's a lot more places we can go with this brand, So we'll look at that. We also look at things like trial. How many people are trying our product and what's the repeat purchase?

55:43That's another really important one. Everybody will try anything at any given time. But the real measure is how many people come back to your product for the second time and the third time. So we also look at that. It's a growing segment with an awful lot of competitors. But can it be a good investment? Wagley finds that the very factor that lowers the barriers to entry may be the key to investing. One third of what we do at Butterfly is investing in consumer brands. And we think we're good at picking them and finding winners and making it work. But two thirds of what we do is investing in those enablers.

56:18It allows us to not have to take the brand risk, right? We can just say, okay, we're going to bet behind hydration and the flavors that go into hydration and so let's go find a flavor company that powers all these different hydration brands. And we don't have to sit here and determine which hydration brand is going to win. So if we can go against the packaging companies that supply those hydration businesses, I think it's a great idea. Flavoring, again, is a big flavor. Flavor is essence. Ingredients in general are another area where we play and find amazing companies that are supplying those different sort of vendors.

56:51And then finally, a huge ecosystem that we spend a lot of time on is co-manufacturing. So a lot of manufacturing has been outsourced to these companies that are very professional at doing it and can do it for big brands, small brands. Finally, I'd say there's also the distribution and logistics of moving these beverages around, which are really interesting players, both national distributors but also regional distributors that might specialize in certain channels. Those so-called enablers may be good investments, but those at the center of the business believe there's no real substitute for doing it yourself.

57:25I've always talked about how you want to start sort of with this product truth. What's the truth about your product that's really special? For us, it's real squeezed fruit. It's been around since 2010, and it's really ridden the wave of consumers gravitating toward healthier, better-for-you beverages that happen to be refreshing and has a nice flavor profile. In most businesses, saturation is a bad thing. Success usually comes from scarcity. And when it comes to carbonated water, the fact is that many of the brands will likely fail. But those devoted to the business believe deeply that in the end, despite the odds, there's room even for all those versions on your grocery shelf, provided they have the right taste.

58:08The reality is that most things fail. You know, 80 % of new products will fail just because just being, just showing up at the party doesn't make you interesting or relevant necessarily. Taste always comes first. because if a product doesn't taste delicious, it doesn't matter how meaningful your mission is or how important all of the backstory of your brand. If people don't love the way they taste, they're not going to come back again and again to buy it. That does it for us here at Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. See you next week for more stories of capitalism.

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