In short
The episode covers three main themes: how tariffs reshape manufacturing and prices, the Fed’s response to political pressure, and two “future” markets—low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite internet and voluntary carbon credits.
Guests and backgrounds
- John D’Addario, CEO of D’Addario (music-instrument accessories; strings, reeds, drumsticks). Family business with manufacturing in the U.S. and imports from China.
- Maxime D’Armay, senior economist at Allianz Trade; surveyed 4,500 firms on tariff uncertainty.
- Larry Summers, former U.S. Treasury Secretary; provides analysis of the Fed and tariffs.
- Craig Moffitt, co-founder/senior analyst at Moffitt Nathanson; comments on LEO competition.
- Carrie Cahoy, MIT professor (satellite engineering/communications); explains why LEO works.
- Jean-Hubert Lenat, chief strategy/resources officer at Eutelsat/OneWeb (via Utilsat); argues for B2B GEO+LEO strategy.
- Tom Montag, CEO of Rubicon Carbon (TPG); discusses voluntary carbon markets.
- Ann Finucane, chair of Rubicon Carbon; former Bank of America vice chair.
- Lambert Schneider, UCO Institute researcher; co-author on OECD work on voluntary vs compliance carbon markets.
Key claims and notable examples
- Tariffs: D’Addario estimates incremental tariffs could triple its tariff costs from about $700,000 to about $2.2 million by year-end; onshoring could cut the tariff bill by about half. D’Armay says inflation impact may show up later (by fall) as inventories run low and tariffs are “settled” across partners (e.g., EU 15%, Japan 15%, UK 10%).
- Fed: Summers says Powell’s July hold preserves flexibility and credibility amid tariff-driven inflation risks and possible downturn risks; he criticizes the idea of cutting rates to ~1%.
- LEO: Starlink leads (7,600 satellites; target up to 48,000). Cahoy notes LEO’s low latency (about 100ms or less) and lower manufacturing cost versus GEO, but requires frequent launches to replace satellites (about 7-year lifetimes; ~25% replaced yearly). OneWeb (Eutelsat/Utilsat) positions itself as B2B-focused with GEO+LEO (about 35 GEO and 600+ LEO satellites).
- Carbon markets: Montag/Finucane argue voluntary markets need standards, transparency, and liquidity; they cite Rubicon’s “Rubicon Carbon Ton” (ETF-like) and “Rubicon rated ton” (with third-party-style ratings). Example: Microsoft’s purchase of 18 million tons of carbon removal credits. Schneider and Montag discuss past issues like overstated baselines and verification problems.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOImpact of Tariffs on Businesses
0:30 to 1:04
John D'Addario discusses how tariffs are affecting his company and the industry.
“make sharper decisions, and turn scattered context into work they can use.”
Impact of Tariffs on Businesses
2:40 to 4:15
John D'Addario discusses how tariffs are affecting his company and the industry.
“Just how bad might these tariffs turn out to be on the August 1st deadline?”
D'Addario's Manufacturing Process
4:16 to 6:27
An exploration of the sourcing and manufacturing processes at D'Addario.
“And my family's been making strings in the U.S.”
Onshoring Strategies
6:28 to 8:07
John explains how his company is adapting to tariffs through onshoring.
“But John D 'Addario and his colleagues are figuring out ways to cope with the changes.”
Responding to Tariff Pressures
8:08 to 10:01
John discusses pricing strategies and margin pressures due to tariffs.
“companies had to redo their supply chains and in some ways may have come out stronger.”
Economic Implications of Tariffs
10:02 to 13:00
Maxime D'Armay provides an overview of how tariffs affect U.S. businesses and inflation.
“It's not the biggest business in the United States.”
Economic Pressures and the Fed's Decisions
15:56 to 18:04
Discussion on the recent Fed meeting, interest rates, and economic forecasts.
“This week, the Fed held its July meeting just a week after President Trump visited Chair Jay Powell at his office to tell him what he thinks the central bank should do.”
Impact of Tariffs on Manufacturing
18:04 to 23:40
Exploring how tariffs affect affordability and American manufacturing.
“I don't know of any economist who sees merit in the president's idea that rates should be cut to the 1 % range.”
Social Security and Individual Responsibility
23:40 to 27:38
Analyzing Secretary Besant's comments on retirement savings and Social Security.
“whether that increase in prices will be a spiral of continuing inflation or one-off.”
The New Space Race: Low Earth Orbit
27:38 to 28:00
A look into the competition in low Earth orbit and its significance.
“This time it's covering the globe, and Elon Musk is way out in front.”
Show all 15 chapters
The Race for Low Earth Orbit Satellites
28:00 to 40:03
Explore the competitive landscape of low Earth orbit satellite technology.
“Not even the one Elon Musk is running now to put humans on Mars in the next few years.”
Climate Change and Carbon Markets
41:16 to 42:00
Discuss the impact of private markets on climate change mitigation efforts.
“Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.”
Exploring Carbon Credit Markets
42:00 to 52:41
Learn about the complexities and potential of carbon credit markets in financing climate initiatives.
“And that's a complicated problem because it's going to take trillions of dollars.”
Careers in Space Launching
53:19 to 56:01
Get insights into what it takes to build a career in the aerospace industry and the future of satellite technology.
“90 miles northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America plays out in one small town.”
Innovations in Satellite Technology
56:01 to 1:02:40
Discover the latest developments in satellite communication and technology.
“that it's on there and it's going up is like one of the coolest feelings ever.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Wall Street Week is brought to you by OTC Markets Group. OTC Markets' overnight platform for exchange-listed securities, Moon ATS, provides access to global securities in U.S. dollars from 8 p.m. to 4 a.m. Eastern, Sunday through Thursday. Learn more at otcmarkets.com slash moon. Moon ATS is operated by OTC Link LLC, a FINRA-registered broker-dealer, and is available only through participating broker-dealers. Today's episode is brought to you by ChatGPT for Business. As a listener of this podcast, you're looking for ways to help teams move faster, make sharper decisions, and turn scattered context into work they can use.
0:38ChatGPT for Business can help. ChatGPT for Business gives teams a shared workspace with admin controls, permissions, and access to work and codecs in ChatGPT. This means your business can move from question to answer and code to rollout quicker. Join over 10 million business and enterprise users worldwide already using ChatGPT for work. Download the ChatGPT desktop app or contact sales to learn more. A new chapter in global growth is being written, and much of it is happening in Africa. Africans need to invest. There are deals to be done and business to be won. I'm Jennifer Zabasaja. Every week on the Next Africa podcast, we track capital flows and political shifts shaping the continent's future.
1:21The digitalization of Africa is going to power its growth. Riding the world of something like HIV is possible. Population growth is so enormous in Africa. Listen to Next Africa on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.
1:54This is Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston bringing you stories of capitalism. President Trump's visit to the Fed did not influence the Fed's decision. Our special contributor Larry Summers gives us his take on the difference between what the White House and the Central Bank think the economy needs. Plus, the battle for the sky 1 ,000 miles up. Elon Musk is way ahead in launching his network of low-Earth orbital satellites to connect the globe. Can anyone catch him? And looking to markets to help address climate change. Tom Montag of Rubicon Carbon explains his big deal with Microsoft and his high hopes for voluntary carbon markets.
2:35But we start with the question on everyone's mind on Wall Street this week. Just how bad might these tariffs turn out to be on the August 1st deadline? John D 'Addario is CEO of the music company founded by his grandfather that bears his name. We're dealing with it right now in a big way. So, for example, last year we estimate that the total amount on tariffs that we paid for both raw materials and finished goods that were imported in the U.S. to the tune of roughly about$700 ,000, based on the incremental tariffs that we're dealing with this year, that's going to triple. It's going to be close to$2.2 million is what we're estimating by the end of the year.
3:11We'll be paying in incremental tariffs. So that's a big threat to us. D 'Addario is the largest company in the world specializing in the design, manufacture, and distribution of accessories for musical instruments. Everything from strings for guitars and violins, to drumsticks and drum heads and snare wires for drums, to reeds and mouthpieces for woodwinds. In this factory, we're producing 750 ,000 strings per day on average. We use a wide range of materials, both for the core or the foundation of the string, as well as wrap wires, which include nickel-plated steel, phosphor bronze, titanium, silver, and in some cases, gold.
3:48The company traces its origins to 17th century Italy, moving to the United States at the start of the 20th century. In 1905, there was an earthquake in the town of Sali, and my great-grandfather, Charles D 'Addario, emigrated to the U.S. at that time. And what he did is he imported strings from his family and sent money home to help them rebuild their homes, literally. And then when World War II came about, because of all the trade embargoes, he forced his hand to start making strings himself in his basement in Astoria, Queens. And my family's been making strings in the U.S. ever since. So how big is your company in terms of employees?
4:24In terms of employees, it's 1 ,100 globally, majority of which are here in Farmingdale, New York, roughly about 800 of those 1 ,100 based here in New York. And as far as revenue is concerned, we are roughly about$240 million annually. So tell us about the inputs, first of all, as you manufacture strings, drumsticks, drumheads, reeds. Where do you get the materials? It comes from a wide variety of locations. So starting with the reed business, we literally import the raw material from our own plantations, which are based in the south of France and in Argentina. So what we do is we harvest cane from our own fields in those countries and we process them down into what we call splits.
5:08And then we ship those splits to here into New York where we process them into finished reeds. And then when you look at the string business, we actually manufacture the majority of our own raw materials. We we source steel rod from a variety of U.S. sources and then we draw them down to fine sizes that we subsequently use to make strings. And then, of course, you know, there's a very small percentage of our business. In fact, about 5 % of our business represents finished goods that we source from overseas. 95 % is what we make is in the States. But what we do source, of course, is predominantly from China.
5:44And it ranges from a variety of accessories like tuners and capos and instrument cables. And so that's, again, a small part of our business, but a very important part of our business. That's on the input side. What are the outputs? How much of your product do you sell in the United States? How much overseas? So roughly 50-50 U.S. and international. And what we do internationally is we actually distribute our products in over 130 countries around the world. And many of those markets, we actually have our own distribution company established where we have sales marketing people on the ground and we have our own logistics operations.
6:20So, in fact, our own distribution companies internationally control about 50 percent of our international business in totality. Given D 'Addario's dependence on imports and exports, it's no surprise that dealing with new tariffs can have a profound effect on its business. But John D 'Addario and his colleagues are figuring out ways to cope with the changes. Fortunately, though, we've done some hard work on onshoring a lot of products that we previously sourced overseas. So, for example, just before the pandemic, we started our own injection molding factory here in New York. And ever since, we've been gradually bringing products back from China to the States.
6:57So we did that before COVID. During COVID, because of all the supply chain disruptions, it actually forced us to accelerate the onshoring of things. And that's continued until now. So this onshoring initiative that we've embarked on has really served us well, both through COVID as well as now through the trade war. Certainly, we're still running up against tariffs on products and raw materials that we still source, but definitely to a lesser extent. One of the goals stated by the Trump administration of tariffs is to increase more on-shoring, as it's called, really production here in the United States.
7:30What percentage of that tripling that you talked about in your costs do you think you can take care of by on-shoring? I definitely think there's more opportunities to on-shore additional products and additional parts. I think we could pretty much cut that tariff bill in half if we put our minds to it. The thing is, though, most companies don't think that's possible. And what we've done is we've taken a hard look at the total cost of ownership of of actually being in control of the manufacturing here. And at the end of the day, it really makes a lot more sense for us to do it here in terms of control and in terms of quality and and, of course, cost containment.
8:07That reminds me of what happened, I think, during the pandemic when companies, U.S. companies had to redo their supply chains and in some ways may have come out stronger. Do you think you may come out stronger because of the tariff pressures? I totally think so. I mean, we looked at COVID not as a threat, but as an opportunity as a company. We're fortunate to have a very strong balance sheet. So it served us well in getting through COVID and made us a stronger company. And I definitely see this as an opportunity to do the same. And as I mentioned before, it's motivating us even more to onshore things that we can control and, of course, then mitigate tariffs as a result.
8:43Are you feeling margin pressure? Are you able to raise prices? How do you accommodate that? It really depends because we go to market with such a wide variety of products. So in some cases, we could get away with a price increase to mitigate the impact of tariffs. In other cases, it's just too competitive for us to do that. So we sacrifice margin to retain our market share in those examples. We've been talking about the effect of tariffs on inputs. What about exports? Because you do export, as you say, about 50 percent of your product. How might the trade disruptions actually affect your ability to export?
9:15Well, you know, China isn't really a great example. Ten years ago, we started our own distribution company in Shanghai. The original objective of that distribution company was to help us mitigate counterfeiting of our strings. So we have a team of about a dozen people on the ground there that keep their eyes and ears open for counterfeits that are in market and really do a great job of controlling that. And so by also another reason why we started our own distribution company there is to be more competitive against Chinese brands. So when China imposed retaliatory tariffs on our products going into China, it was a major threat to our Chinese business.
9:52I mean, we're talking about a business that's anywhere between$5 and$10 million on an annual basis that suddenly is in jeopardy. And it made us difficult to compete with Chinese brands in market. You have a successful business by all descriptions. It's not the biggest business in the United States. There are big publicly traded companies. How do you think your ability to respond to tariffs are different from some of the big publicly traded companies? Maybe better, maybe worse. Well, you know, as a family business, one of the great things about it is we can be very nimble. We're not we're not interested in the short term, you know, financial benefit.
10:26Our goal as a family is to have a sustainable, successful business for many generations. So having that mindset allows us to stay flexible and we can pivot when we need to when the market conditions change. D 'Addario is just one example of a global company coming to terms with the Trump administration's new approach to trade. Companies are trying to cope with the impact of the trade war. Maxime D 'Armay is a senior economist at Allianz Trade, which recently surveyed 4 ,500 companies across China, the EU, the UK and the US about how they are adapting to tariff uncertainty. U.S. firms are absorbing the cost into their margins.
11:09So we're not really seeing the impact on inflation. That being said, I think it's going to take very soon before we start to see some impact on U.S. inflation. I think it's going to come very soon by the fall at the latest because now inventories are running super low. So, you know, at some point, I think U.S. retailers, U.S. wholesalers are going to start to pass on the cost of their tariffs onto the consumers, although more so. But now we have, you know, tariffs are pretty much being settled with the EU, with Japan, perhaps soon with Korea. So now businesses start to know more or less what is going to be the, you know, the set tariffs, 15 % for the EU, 15 % for Japan, 10 % for the UK.
11:52So now companies have more visibility. So they will start to really pass on slowly into the prices, the tariffs. So as firms look to adjust their supply chains, is one of the alternatives actually manufacturing onshore in the United States, which was, after all, President Trump's goal? It is. Yeah. Well, it's really hard to say at this point whether this goal will succeed. Right. It would take many years. What I can say is, you know, businesses tend to make the decisions, their investment decisions over a long time horizon. So who knows is going to be after President Trump? Maybe all these tariffs are going to be removed or some of these tariffs will be removed.
12:31by the next president or the next administration. So I'm quite skeptical that a full-blown restoring will happen into the United States. That being said, potentially I think we could see a couple of sectors starting to restore a little bit so we could see some success happening in the next couple of years. As companies reroute their supply chains, particularly when it comes from China through a third country in the United States, does that mean some countries are benefiting actually from the tariffs because they're getting more business. China is going to remain central stage to the supply chains, to the manufacturing supply chains.
13:08But other countries in Southeast Asia, Southeast Asia, perhaps a little bit in Europe as well, and North Africa as well, could benefit, could really gain a little bit of value added, if it makes sense. Coming up, the Fed is watching for the effects of President Trump's policies. Our special contributor Larry Summers tells us what the central bank's decision means for the economy.
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14:20Quick one before you jump back in. You're listening for ways to help teams move faster, make sharper decisions, and turn scattered context into work they can use. ChatGPT for Business can help. ChatGPT for Business gives teams a shared workspace with admin controls, permissions, and access to work and codecs in ChatGPT. This means your business can move from question to answer and code to rollout quicker. Join over 10 million business and enterprise users worldwide already using ChatGPT for Work. Download the ChatGPT desktop app or contact sales to learn more.
15:20me, Alex Rodriguez. And me, Jason Kelly. We talk to the biggest names in the world of sports and business, including NBA Hall of Famer Tracy McGrady on one of his biggest blunders.
15:32Lawrence H. Summers:I think I've created something magical. Mm-hmm. Well, I struck out. And you'll even get some of my baseball hot takes. I've had owners tell me, it doesn't matter. The game has to be fixed. It's broken. If we have to lock out the whole year, we will. New episodes air every Thursday. Don't miss out.
15:56This is a story about pressure. This week, the Fed held its July meeting just a week after President Trump visited Chair Jay Powell at his office to tell him what he thinks the central bank should do.
16:07Lawrence H. Summers:Too late. I call him too late Powell because he's always too late. Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed? I'd do a much better job than these people. Well, I'd love him to lower interest rates. Other than that, what can I tell you? But the president's visit did not persuade Fed Chair Powell to lower rates, at least not yet. Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged. We have made no decisions about September. We don't we don't do that in advance. Special contributor Larry Summers joins us with what he expects for the U.S. economy with President Trump and the Fed chair on opposite sides.
16:43Lawrence H. Summers:There certainly are some risks of a downturn. There are also some inflationary risks coming from the tariffs, coming from general economic strength. And so he decided not to commit, but to preserve flexibility. I think that was the right course of action for him to take. If the economy turns down, There's the scope to cut rates very rapidly. But if inflation is a problem, there's a risk of a loss of credibility. If you're a responsible Fed official, you've got to remember that you got nervous about the economy last September. You cut rates by 50 basis points. And the upshot was a 75 basis point increase in the subsequent two months in the 10 year rate, which fed through into a major increase in mortgage rates.
17:40Lawrence H. Summers:So I think what the Fed did was the prudent thing under the circumstances. I wouldn't be wouldn't surprise me greatly if it turned out that the economy had slowed and we wish we had cut rates now. But if if that error has been made, it's an easily correctable error. Whereas if you made the opposite error and sacrificed credibility by moving excessively, that would be a much more damaging and difficult to reverse error. I think the other thing that needs to be said here is you can argue both sides, as I just did, about whether we should have a quarter point rate cut in July, whether we should have two rate cuts this year or three rate cuts this year.
18:33Lawrence H. Summers:I don't know of any economist who sees merit in the president's idea that rates should be cut to the 1 % range. And I would want to hear what his colleagues in the administration give as a rationale for that kind of theory of interest rate setting, which given the current rather happy state of markets and rather strong economy, seems to me to be a very, very dangerous one that would court a major loss of credibility. Perhaps Chair Powell got it right, but he had at least two of his colleagues who disagreed with him. He had two dissenters for the first time since 1993. It's been a long time since we had two dissenters.
19:25And they weren't asking for a 300 basis point rate cut, maybe a 25 basis point cut. But what do you think that they're seeing we're not?
19:33Lawrence H. Summers:I think they I don't think it's a complete coincidence that who they were appointed by and in what context that may not be a complete coincidence in terms of understanding what's going on. Look, I think their argument is that under the surface, there's substantial economic weakness and it's important to get ahead of the weakness. And my reaction is if that comes to be a prevailing judgment, the market will do it, do that itself. And it's the two year rate and the five year rate and the 10 year rate that's more important for the behavior of demand. And to the extent the market doesn't do it itself, the Fed will be able to do it six weeks from now and be able to be more energetic if that proved necessary.
20:33Lawrence H. Summers:So I don't think there's any kind of urgent need for the cut. And I think we are a bit playing with fire. We have a central bank that missed the last inflation badly. We have increased politicization of everything financial. We have tariffs that are pushing up prices. We have epic budget deficits. We've had a period when the dollar has declined substantially. So a moment like that seems to me to be a moment to err on the side of preserving credibility rather than take chances that could put credibility at risk. And that's why I disagree with the judgments of governors Waller and Bowman. One of the reasons for the Fed not to act right now is uncertainty because of tariffs.
21:38And Chair Powell addressed that, that it's taking some time to really be reflected in the real economy. What everyone thinks of those tariffs, and you've talked about it in this program before, We have to admit, President Trump has gotten a lot of tariff deals done in a fairly short time.
21:52Lawrence H. Summers:Yeah, but the difficulty, David, from my perspective, is that they're mostly self-inflicted wounds. They're mostly putting taxes on that raise the prices that American consumers pay, not just on imported goods, but on the goods that compete with imported goods. Affordability is the most important economic issue, as judged by American families. And tariffs are a direct attack on the affordability of things that people buy. Tariffs are also a blow to American manufacturing because we're tariffing the inputs on which our manufacturers depend. When we raise the price of steel or aluminum, we make it more costly to make cars.
22:49Lawrence H. Summers:We make constructing homes more costly at a time when we have a housing shortage. So it seems to me that this idea that tariffs are going to be somehow the salvation of the manufacturing sector is not an idea that is seriously supported by analytical work or by real evidence. And most of the economists with expertise in this area who study it conclude that probably it's as likely that this program will hurt manufacturing as that it will help manufacturing. And that the one thing that is certain is that it will raise prices and reduce affordability. whether that increase in prices will be a spiral of continuing inflation or one-off.
23:47Lawrence H. Summers:That's a hard thing to judge, and it may well be only a one-off. But why would we want to have the major objective of American negotiation with our closest allies be to impose something on them that they hate in order to raise the prices of the goods that American families buy. So I just don't get it. President Trump has made no secret of the fact that we should expect a different Fed chair come next May at the expiration of Chair Powell's term. That raises the question whether Chair Powell will stay on because he has another two years to remain on the board if he chooses. Secretary Besant has made no secret of the fact that he thinks it would be appropriate or even he would encourage him to leave the board.
24:37Secretary Besant was asked at the news conference about it. He just refused to address it. What do you think about that issue?
24:42Lawrence H. Summers:I don't understand why anybody would give who is involved in a complex set of negotiations and bargains would give up any flexibility by making any prior commitments to people who are bashing them every day. So I don't know what Chair Powell will do. I suspect Chair Powell doesn't know what he will do. It'll depend upon aspects of his life, I imagine, and it will depend on who the next Fed chair is and what the sense is of how the Fed is going to operate going forward. But I don't see any reason at all for why he should prejudge that question any more than you should prejudge the question of how long you're going to do Wall Street week.
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25:37Lawrence H. Summers:Or I should prejudge the question of how long I'm going to be a professor at Harvard. We had in the one big, beautiful bill, the one thousand dollar setting aside investment for each new child born. You and I have talked about that before, about whether that's enough money and what the administrative costs are. But we now have Secretary Besant suggesting, I think he called it perhaps a backdoor way of shoring up retirement savings and earnings for people in the out years. What do you think about that at a time when Social Security is under increasing pressure? I was surprised that Secretary Besant made the comment.
26:14Lawrence H. Summers:I was not surprised that having made the comment, he has been backing off it. since then by trying to suggest that it all goes together. But I think he got the thinking right the first time. There's a philosophy of individualism that believes in just making people take responsibility for their own security and rejects the idea of public cooperation for old age insurance. And that's something that Republicans have always flirted with. And I think you were seeing another example of that. I am very nervous about this program. My prediction is that when somebody does an accounting five years from now, the level of payments made to various financial firms and information technology companies to keep track of these accounts is going to be very large relative to the amount of spending or the amount of support that American families received.
27:28Lawrence H. Summers:And that's always been the Achilles heel of Social Security privatization. Coming up, the latest space race. This time it's covering the globe, and Elon Musk is way out in front. That's next on Wall Street Week.
27:51This is a story about a space race, not the one to be first to put a man on the moon nearly 50 years ago.
27:57Lawrence H. Summers:That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind. Not even the one Elon Musk is running now to put humans on Mars in the next few years. Just over two years, we'll be sending our first uncrewed starships to Mars. then we'll send humans two years after that. Three, two, one. This is a space race much closer to Earth, one just a few hundred miles over our heads. It's being run in the world of low Earth orbit, or LEO. And what's at stake is potentially connecting everyone on the planet, including hard-to-reach bits. And lift off. Go SpaceX. Go Starlink. The stack of 60 Starlink satellites have successfully deployed from second stage.
28:45This is just providing connectivity again in places where you don't get it through other means. It's a much better solution than trying to bring fiber to really, really remote locations. It's exciting. You never know what the next big thing is. The battle for LEO satellite supremacy is on for private companies and governments. Goldman Sachs values the market at$15 billion, but expects it to grow to$108 billion by 2035. And though it may be a competition, right now it looks like a race between several tortoises and one hare way out in front. That hare is named Starlink, and it's owned by Elon Musk's SpaceX.
29:29It's 7 ,600 satellites today. They're expecting to get to as many as 48 ,000 satellites. Craig Moffitt is the co-founder and senior analyst at Moffitt Nathanson. He says Musk is so far ahead, it might be difficult for anyone to close the gap. Starlink is probably the biggest part of SpaceX at the moment and a part that investors seem to value the most highly. But it is intricately tied to the rest of the SpaceX business, which is the rockets and launches and all that sort of thing. The Starlink business itself, providing Internet access primarily to rural areas, and again, obviously not just the United States, but globally, is enormously benefited by the fact that it's connected to a satellite launch business.
30:16Making one of these satellites costs a quarter of a million to half a million dollars. Launching them adds another quarter to half a million dollars of cost to each individual satellite. If the goal is connecting the world, why are LEO satellites the best way to get there? We traveled to MIT's Aeronautics and Astronautics Department to find out from Professor Carrie Cahoy, whose specialty is satellite engineering and communications. Most people refer to lower Earth orbit as orbits that are closer to Earth. You need to be above about 300 kilometers to stay in orbit without dropping out due to atmospheric drag right away.
30:57So it can go higher. It goes up to about 1 ,000 kilometers to 1 ,200 kilometers. When you're in low-Earth orbit, if you're looking at a satellite go across the sky, it takes about 10 minutes to go from horizon to horizon. And then if you go high enough up, it's geostationary orbit, where the speed of the satellite going around the Earth is actually the same as the rotation of the Earth. And so they're always overhead in the same spot, which has a lot of advantages for communications because you never have to worry about where they are. They're always right where you left them above you. They're much farther away than low Earth orbit.
31:30One of the things that is a benefit for low Earth orbit is it's so much closer to the Earth. It only takes like 100 milliseconds or less to get a signal from the satellite down to the Earth or round trip time. When you're talking about going up to geostationary orbit, that's often large fractions of a second. It's not just the size and proximity to Earth that makes LEO special. It's also the cost. A single geosatellite can be up to 1 ,000 times more expensive than a LEO satellite to manufacture. On the other hand, it costs a lot more over time to keep those LEO satellites up there and working.
32:10In low Earth orbit, unless you have a lot of propulsion on board and ways to keep yourself fighting atmospheric drag, So low-earth orbit is above the atmosphere, but there's just enough that it starts to slow you down and decrease your orbit energy and pull you in until you re-enter and burn up, unless they're higher and have bigger fuel tanks on board and more propellant to keep them up for longer. You know, the heavier you make them, the more it costs to launch them. And liftoff. You have to be launching as many as 25 % of your satellites every year just to maintain the replacement cost of the constellation.
32:46So you're talking about launching 12 ,000 satellites a year just to keep the existing constellation operating. Those kinds of costs are staggering. Starlink has what looks like an overwhelming lead in LEO satellites. But it's not the only horse in the race. Jeff Bezos' Project Kuiper is trying at least to get on the track, though it's had to deal with manufacturing issues and launch delays earlier this year, currently leaving its constellation with fewer than 80 satellites in orbit, compared with Musk's 7 ,600 plus. When you see someone like Amazon's Project Kuiper planning a second U.S.-centered, started constellation that will occupy very much the same competitive niche as Starlink, it's really hard to see why that makes any sense and why there are any returns available to Amazon.
33:41A Starlink competitor that's much further along than Kuiper comes from Europe. OneWeb launched its first operational LEO satellite the same year as Starlink. European satellite operator Eudelsat acquired OneWeb in 2023 and currently operates its own constellation of about 640 satellites. And OneWeb is pursuing a strategy that goes beyond LEO satellites alone. We are the only satellite that has both the GEO and the LEO. And in fact, quite a number of them because we have 35 in GEO and over 600 in LEO. Jean-Hubert Lenat is the chief strategy and resources officer at Utilsat. And it's not just the combination of GEO and LEO satellites that he thinks sets his company on a different path from Starlink.
34:30It's also the market they serve. Starlink does address the consumer market, meaning that they do need much more capacity to actually serve all those customers. We are providing very basic but important connectivity to businesses, to government. What is very important to understand is we are not in a consumer market. We have right now just north of 5 billion in total globally of connectivity in B2B. and this is going to grow at least three times between now and basically 2033 where it should be close to 15 billion at by the time but more importantly the Leo connectivity is really what is going to drive this market so the Leo connectivity right now in B2B is only around 2 billion as we speak this year expected to be there whereas we do expect it will be north of 10 billion probably 11 or 12 billion by the same year of 2033, meaning that it will just be multiplied fivefold for that period.
35:36OneWeb, a subsidiary of Utilsat, manages its constellation out of its London office. I lead a team that has one main objective, which is uptime. So guaranteeing that our customers are actually always able to connect to the service that we provide wherever they are. And the role of the team here is actually to guarantee that the system works at the top performance and it delivers the high speed and the low latency that the constellation is supposed to provide. OneWeb also differs from Starlink in the way it gets its satellites into orbit. OneWeb has no rockets of its own, so it relies instead on other firms for its launches, including, you guessed it, Musk's SpaceX.
36:19OneWeb, Sat Delta 2 and Delta 6, separation confirmed. In fact, it is SpaceX's advances in reusable rockets that have transformed the industry. Launch costs used to be very high and it used to be very difficult to get things into orbit. So the reduction in cost of launch, partly driven by the reusable launch vehicles that SpaceX has developed with, for example, Falcon 9. Both SpaceX and OneWeb have close relations with governments. SpaceX through U.S. government contracts and OneWeb through partial government ownership. In mid-June, the U.K. government announced plans to invest 163 million euros in Utilsat, joining France and other investors in a major funding round, bringing the total raise to 1.5 billion euros or 1.8 billion dollars.
37:09What are your capital needs going forward as you see it? We have indeed our plans to invest 4 billion euros of CAPEX between now and 2029. And those 4 billion, this is essentially a large part to replace our current LEO constellation. LEO satellites have a smaller lifetime of around seven years, so we'll have to replace those ones by 2028. So a bulk of that CAPEX is precisely for that replacement. The LEO satellite race is on, and Starlink is way out in front. But how big is the prize for winning the race? How good a business is this? Even for the leader, Starlink, it looks like it might not be as profitable as Musk originally thought.
37:56Roughly half of the cost is in the rocketry segment. The original concept was that they would have a big leg up because they could put these satellites into the payloads of rockets that were going up for other customers, whether it's NASA or other governments. And then they could add their own satellites cheaply to these payloads. It hasn't worked out that way. Virtually every single rocket launch thus far has been a dedicated rocket launch solely for the purpose of launching Starlink satellites. So the cost structure is quite a bit higher than you might have imagined it was going to be. And liftoff.
38:34And in the end, how much room at the finish line is there for competitors in the Leo space race? Is there room for more than one? Or is it a natural monopoly given the capital investment required and the limited market to be served? We do believe that in the future, there will be probably four, five, maybe six players, not more. There is clearly room for those players because precisely the demand for connectivity, as you and I can experience every day is just growing and growing. The revenue opportunity is almost certainly going to keep being divided up because of all of these quasi-economic logic that's more geopolitical and military logic instead.
39:16And ultimately, it means you'll always have more competitors in this business than the economics would dictate makes any sense. It's very exciting to see it growing like this, to see remote access without terrestrial infrastructure needed. That is a very interesting and exciting growth area. We've come a long way since the days of Sputnik and Gemini and the space shuttle, days when we waited months for each launch, days when only governments could compete. Now there are launches nearly every day from private and government players, making the question not who will win, but what trophy the winner will take home.
39:59Up next, we turn from satellites to adapting to climate change. Tom Montag of Rubicon Carbon makes his case for liquid and transparent voluntary carbon markets making the difference.
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41:14on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you? Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
41:25This is a story about carrots and sticks, and whether we need both if we're to make real progress on climate change. Various governments have tried their hand at reducing carbon emissions, from setting limits to providing billions of dollars in incentives to go green. But President Trump's return to the Oval Office has put climate change on something of a back burner for the U.S. government.
41:48Lawrence H. Summers:I terminated the ridiculous Green News scam. I withdrew from the unfair Paris Climate Accord, which was costing us trillions of dollars. While governments try their various approaches and adjust them from time to time, the challenges from climate change just keep increasing, with the world sending over 35 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere every year. And the average global surface temperature in 2024, 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average, which raises the question whether private markets may help the situation with or without active government support. It's about financing climate.
42:31And that's a complicated problem because it's going to take trillions of dollars. After serving as vice chair of Bank of America, Ann Finucane is now chair of Rubicon Carbon, a carbon credit management firm run by TPG. So it's a piece of the puzzle. I think it's an effective one. It could be a lot more effective than it's been. But I think as the European market matures, as the American market matures, and I know there are issues right at the moment, But nonetheless, I think that we will see it as a component and an important component in the capital stack that will underwrite this change. Lambert Schneider has studied carbon credit markets at the UCO Institute in Freiburg, Germany, and is co-author of an OECD paper on the interplay between voluntary and compliance carbon markets.
43:23Carbon credits is an instrument where someone, a private entity or public entity, can invest in mitigation projects and climate and then claim the emission reductions. A practical example would be if a company invests in an afforestation project somewhere, the trees grow, they absorb CO2, and then for each ton of CO2 that is absorbed, a ton of carbon credit is being issued and then these carbon credits can for example be used to achieve voluntary climate goals. Prominent examples is avoiding deforestation and then there are projects which burn greenhouse gases, waste greenhouse gases, there are projects which use renewable energies and there are also projects who suck CO2 out of the atmosphere like for example direct air capture and carbon sequestration in geological reservoirs.
44:21So you take CO2 out of the atmosphere and then you store it underground. Many companies have set voluntary mitigation targets. They have said we want to do action beyond reducing our own emissions, to do beyond value chain mitigation. And compliance markets are markets that are established by governments or multilateral organizations where companies have an obligation to meet certain targets or quotas. The most prominent example for a compliance market is international aviation. Under the International Civil Aviation Organization, airline operators must compensate part of their emissions. And so each airline needs to purchase a certain number of carbon credits.
45:05Despite the promise of carbon credit markets, they have yet to live up to their full potential.
45:11Lawrence H. Summers:I would say they have not developed the way that we had hoped. It's been a pretty flat market, quite frankly, for the last four years or so. Tom Montag was a colleague of Ant Finucane as COO of Bank of America and president of Global Banking and Markets. Since 2022, he has been the CEO of TPG's Rubicon Carbon, working with the firm's Rise Climate Fund, chaired by former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, and with chief science officer and Nobel Prize winner Dr. Jennifer Jenkins. When you do a carbon project, David, you go to registries and you get, they give you carbon credits based on their read of your project and where it is and what it's doing.
45:53Lawrence H. Summers:And in retrospect, some of the projects use baselines that weren't so good and other things like that, that led to them being overstated, too many credits being issued. The early days of carbon credits were, there were problems. There were problems with verification of what the project was. the project itself may have had some issues and those that were validating it, developing it and selling it may have had some issues. A few years ago it was imagined that it could be$200 billion. It's a fraction of that, a very small fraction of that. And we need to do some things to make a change. We need to have standards, we need to have rating agencies.
46:31In the same way you would have any financial market, you have to have a developer or manufacturer of the product, you have to have a broker, you have to have a rating agency, governments will get involved and then you have to create a larger market. But those things are happening on a small scale now. And I mentioned Europe. Europe is going to require it and in requiring it where they sort of did the stick not the carrot, they're beginning to think about what's the carrot here. There's a new mechanism and that standard is really more ambitious than anything that we had before, it really tries to draw on the lessons learned from the past and to avoid the mistakes that will be made in the voluntary carbon market and set a higher bar.
47:14So what does Rubicon Carbon bring to this that's needed?
47:18Lawrence H. Summers:We came with kind of an institutional backing with, you know, Anne Finucane and I coming from Bank of America and TPG funding. We have a filter. Everything we show and do go through our science team, gets a score. So we bring the quality and the transparency that people need to invest in the markets. One of the things we're trying to do is to develop a product that makes it more liquid and transparent for people that don't have the infrastructure or need to understand these projects and what are the risks of these projects and where they are. It isn't like a stock where you can get a prospectus and just read it.
47:52Lawrence H. Summers:And these are very complex areas with different systems and new technologies. And so we kind of developed two new projects to do that. One is that we call the Rubicon carbon ton. It's like an ETF. If you buy tons out of the Rubicon carbon ton and we have them in nature or we call super pollutants or removals, then you get a portfolio of curated tons underneath that that we're always managing as we go. We just did the other first of its kind, a Rubicon rated ton, and that was a ton of a portfolio of credits that are rated not only by our guys, but by B0, which is kind of the Moody's of rating carbon products.
48:33In order to create a market for trading carbon credits, there has to be some way to translate the climate effects across a wide array of activities, all of which can reduce carbon released into the atmosphere, but in very different ways.
48:47Lawrence H. Summers:There's a whole list of different kinds of projects and things that can range from literally filtering out of the filters that take carbon out of the environment, which is expensive, to what they call biochar, which is high temperature burning of biomass that's stored in the ground instead of decaying into the environment. There's a reforestation where we're replanting degraded land and there's methane capture or gas capture at source and destruction. So that wide range and the prices of those, David, can be from anywhere from, you know, five dollars to hundreds of dollars. Do you at Rubicon Carbon yourself or do you pay somebody else to go back and audit to see whether the farmer planted the tree and the tree's there?
49:30We do a lot of work.
49:32Lawrence H. Summers:You know, satellite imagery is amazing these days. So you can really get granular in what you can see. So we do a combination of site visits and also we buy the best satellite imagery you can possibly find to check on the trees and what the tree cover is. Have they been planted? Are they still there? All those types of things. There has been some changes in various governments, including the United States. And some of the governments seem to be backing off some of the commitments on climate. Is that hurting your business? I think it would help our business at the end of the day because people will realize the government's not going to do it for them.
50:05To its credit, Rubicon Carbon has notched one very significant deal, a Microsoft purchase of carbon removal credits. A big deal like Microsoft really matters because, first of all, it's huge. It's 18 million tons and 500 square miles of carbon sequestration and reduction. And it's called an offtake deal where they're buying it over a series of years. I also think that there is an appreciation that, particularly with technology companies, but not just technology companies, we need more energy and we need all energy. So the idea that we would incentivize those to do more production and clean energy, along with perhaps more traditional energy, it seems like we're tying a hand behind the American back.
50:52I do think we are capitalists and there is a market opportunity we would not want to miss and we surely don't want China to go ahead of us. Carbon markets need transparency, standards and depth. But even then, they're only as good as the difference they make in the real world. And Rubicon Carbon already has some projects starting to make a difference in reducing net carbon emissions. You're taking barren land and creating a nature-based solution. So imagine something that has gone to waste that is now productive again. Or direct air capture is the idea that you're capturing the carbon emissions.
51:33So either of those are certainly accretive. I think that you're going to see work on farmland where they will work with farmers in the years to come, particularly in Europe, of generating carbon credits by farming a little bit differently, more in a regenerative way and measuring the soil and how the better use of soil, the better use of less water is going to be accretive. But we have a project called SpecBoom that we're working on. It's in South Africa. It's the reforestation of an area. SpecBoom is actually a plant. We, along with a couple of other funders, are putting capital in so that they can build and grow this.
52:11I'd like to just say one thing about climate change. It's about clean energy. It's about enough water for the world. And it's about being able to breathe clean air. This isn't about politicizing anything. It's just the reality that the science community tells us. We're capitalists, so we like to take advantage of something that could have capital returns. And I think this will. Coming up next, what does it take to put your work into outer space?
52:42Quick one before you jump back in. You're listening for ways to help teams move faster, make sharper decisions, and turn scattered context into work they can use. ChatGPT for Business can help. ChatGPT for Business gives teams a shared workspace with admin controls, permissions, and access to work and codecs in ChatGPT. This means your business can move from question to answer and code to rollout quicker. Join over 10 million business and enterprise users worldwide already using ChatGPT for work. Download the ChatGPT desktop app or contact sales to learn more. Our hometown is not a test tube. 90 miles northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America plays out in one small town.
53:27Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land. We need cities on a shining hill. This is Our Town, a podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment. and fights back. Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you? Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
53:53They often say it doesn't take a rocket scientist. But what if it does? What does it take to make a career in launching vehicles into outer space? Aeroastro professor Carrie Cahoy of MIT tells her story of what got her started and what she finds most exciting. So I was working in college and I was there on federal work study. So I had to get funding to go to college and didn't have another way to do it. And so I had been working in the libraries and I saw this advertisement for somebody who needed an undergraduate researcher to help with a Mars rover program. And that turned out to be Professor Steve Squires at Cornell who ended up launching the Mars rovers.
54:38So I started interning with him and was working on Mars rovers with Steve Squires for a while. And then I was in electrical engineering and got into satellites, went to grad school on that. So that's kind of how I got involved. It seemed like a cooler job. I love being in the library. Don't get me wrong. I'm a bookworm and my first word was book. But the rovers were a lot of fun. But you love this. You love satellites. Why? It is challenging. It is one of the most mentally challenging, toughest fields I've ever been in because when it breaks, it is gone. And it is really hard to obtain funding, get funding to do it, get the hardware built, have it working, get it to the rocket, have it to survive the rocket launch, get up to orbit and then you're able to do things and get perspectives that really there's no other way to do it and you're also able to answer science questions like for astronomers and astrophysicists or people who are doing remote sensing on earth that you can't get that data any other way.
55:43And that part's really rewarding. Watching a rocket launch is worth a good five years of working your butt off, I would say. Like if I had to give the trade, like just having a rocket launch, feeling the blast and watching, knowing that, you know, your spacecraft is on there and then you have to run back and make sure it works, but like that it's on there and it's going up is like one of the coolest feelings ever. So there's a lot of joy and pride and skill building and challenge in the field. So that's one of the reasons why I love it. As you do your work here at MIT, can you see what the next big thing is likely to be?
56:19It's exciting. You never know what the next big thing is. But some of the things that I think are exciting are the ability of satellites to communicate directly to cell phones. Now, I know Iridium and the Iridium phones have been a thing for a while, but connecting directly to existing consumer electronics without modification, your iPhone, is happening. And so they're essentially showing, there are multiple companies now who are starting to show that you can actually take the technology that are normal cell towers on the ground and put them in low Earth orbit and they will work with your phone.
56:53And so we have some search and rescue signals and partnerships between companies like Apple Global Star, and there are a few other companies that are working in this space to do direct-to-cell phone. I think that's going to be really interesting as time evolves, especially as we have more autonomous vehicles and people are needing entertainment and data in different places because they have more time to use it. I think also on orbit, getting to the point where we have more compute on orbit, right now satellites mostly are run by not very sophisticated computers. They're getting better and they're starting to use more commercial technology, more of the NVIDIA chips and AMD chips on orbit.
57:38But when we're developing, it's really hard to only just take pictures and then send them all down to the ground. So you have a lot of data that in the normal mode of operations, you take a lot of data and you communicate it by radio, usually because of weather, all down to the ground. And then you process it on the ground. And then you tell your shuttle it's what to do next. So there's a cycle of getting data down to the ground. And it's hard to get data down to the ground. Getting frequency licenses is difficult. It's expensive. It requires a lot of management. Requires a lot of power on board.
58:12So putting computers on board that can survive on board and running now some of the new AI models so you can take the picture. On board you have a model that can decide whether or not what you wanted in the picture is in the picture. If it's in the picture it prioritizes it. If it's not in the picture it throws it out. If it's a cloudy picture it throws it out and saves only the things you really wanted and then sends it back down. Also getting the satellites to communicate between each other so that they can tell each other, hey, I finished this task, here's the next on the task list passed back to you, kind of like playing tag, instead of waiting for that satellite to tell the ground and the ground to tell everybody what the new plan is.
58:52So being able to replan, retask, and to be able to make decisions about what is good and bad data dynamically will be new and exciting. One of the things Professor Cahoy and her team of grad students are working on is a sort of robot that can be launched into orbit and then assemble satellites in space to avoid the rough and tumble of the launch itself. All right, so this is a project that's called Orbital Locker. One of the challenges about space is that you have to get everything to orbit, and to get to orbit has to go on a rocket. And rockets are very vibrating, dynamic, loud. They shake everything a lot.
59:33During the launch. During the launch, yeah. for those first couple of it's only a couple minutes but they're very important minutes and so everything we do about satellites we pack them in tight we glue everything down everything's tied down latched down you know locked in so that nothing breaks um most of the time um when it's going up in the rocket um and then when we get to orbit the you know clearing opens we get to orbit the satellites deployed, it's in orbit, the solar panels will unfurl, but you basically have the thing you built on the ground. What we were thinking is, wouldn't it be great if you could put a platform in orbit that was packed with things that don't break when they're on a rocket, So very simple components that you can just stow away.
1:00:24And you have these kind of robust robots that can unpack it themselves, but then they can build whatever they want. Once they get up on orbit, there's no shaking. Once you're on orbit, it's very quiet. So it's a kit. Yeah, it's like a kit. It's a kit where the only thing that has to survive the rocket launch are these XYZ, so three-axis robots that move around and an arm that snaps everything together. and as long as these elements are robust enough to not get destroyed or damaged in the launch, you can go up to orbit and build something as big as you want. But you have to program in advance what the robot has to assemble in what order and things, right?
1:01:03Yes, so there's a lot of algorithm work and software work on that, but the nice part about this is the platform on orbit you can still talk to. You can reprogram things on orbit. You can give it different directions if you want to. You just need to make sure you kind of know what's in your warehouse. So it's kind of like almost a warehouse of hardware that you could use on orbit to assemble things and deploy them and make them as big and as complicated as you want without having to fit in the couple of meters. I think if we get Starship up to six meters of space that you have in a rocket, you could go well beyond that and not have to pre-plan everything to unfurl and deploy.
1:01:43you could just build it the way you wanted it as big as you wanted once you get up there. Is this a prototype? Is this actually been used? This is a prototype. So this has been used. So this recently in May was on a zero gravity launch. So the graduate students, James and Lila, who are working on it, took it on one of those planes that do the parabolic flights. And so you have microgravity for, you know, a few seconds, 30 seconds at a time. And so they had the robot working there. And they actually learned a lot about cord management. So wires don't behave. They don't lay down like this when they're in gravity.
1:02:20Like they're kind of held down. But when they're on orbit, they move around a lot more. And so we had to update our wire management system. And then we'd like to get this to be a prototype on orbit on the space station. So it could be inside the station, and we could start to demonstrate it, or on a free flyer on its own satellite later. So that's kind of what we're hoping. That does it for us here at Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. See you next week for more stories of capitalism.
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From the publisher
This week, we go to US companies that are cutting costs and regaining control by reshoring production and restructuring their global supply chain. And, Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers weighs in on the Fed’s decision to hold steady as President Trump calls for deep rate cuts. Plus, a look at the low Earth orbit satellite market. Later, how voluntary carbon markets are creating investment products to move the needle on climate change.
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