SpaceX Goes Public, Google’s AI Bet, World Cup Price Backlash

24:16The quantum race is on and the promises are big, but the winner is in the eyes of the beholder. IBM says it's ahead because it has more total qubits in its machines. IonQ says it's not the number of qubits, but the number of algorithmic qubits putting it in front. Previously, these were questions for investors to weigh. But now the government has entered the race and placed bets on nine quantum computing companies. Those left out include big players like Google and Microsoft, and smaller contenders like IonQ. Google says that funding from the government would have come with conditions that would have slowed down its progress.

24:56Why do we need the government to participate? Why can't the private markets take care of it on their own? If you go back to the original investments in the Internet, it was ARPA, and then it became ARPANET. It was basically a link to connect the scientific laboratories and the academic research universities to exchange information on what they were doing in research. That became the total communication backbone for the Internet. The government didn't create the digital economy. The government created the infrastructure, but built on the infrastructure with the companies, the ecosystem for innovation, as well as investment.

25:33An example of where things haven't worked so well had to do with an energy company back in the 70s under Nixon. There was an energy crisis that failed miserably, needless to say, because they tried to pick a company. So when the government's not just here, when the government's around the world, look at state-owned enterprises, if you want to go to China and places like that. when they try to pick companies, their history says they aren't as successful as when they create the environment for the private sector to be successful. This is an equity investment. Yes, correct. But there's a range of companies that they're investing in, but it's equity participation, which is different from what I have with ARPA.

26:11That was a grant. Yes, correct. Yeah, it's absolutely right. And this is where I think the model is challenged, because when you make an equity investment, maybe they're spreading their risk, I mean like a pro-growth equity PE firm, but at the end of the day you're picking. The risk associated with picking that's in the past is that government doesn't do a very good job of operating, and government doesn't have a long-term attention span. This technology is going to take 10, 15, I'm already in for 30 years, right? I mean, so, you know, you need stability in that regard, and that's where government struggles in operational detail.

26:46They do policy, right? They can make grants, do research, and they need to fund long-term stuff. But they're not strong at actually running companies. And that's where they fail. To most of us,$2 billion sounds like a lot of money. But when you compare that with some of the investments being made right now in AI, I mean,$850 billion. So is this priming the pump for investors? Is this a way the government's saying we're willing to invest and that will encourage other investors to come in? I think the reason why$2 billion is nothing is what it's going to take. Just go through the development cycles.

27:21When they talk about a hybrid model for quantum, what they're talking about is marrying this quantum advantage, the technology, to the traditional approaches, which is cloud and AI. But it's not commercial computing. It doesn't have what you need to make this thing a robust commercial system. the data management, memory management, backup and recovery, all the things you expect, right, accuracy of your answers and things like that, that you expect if you're running a hospital or a bank or whatever it happens to be, I don't think is going to be there in two or three years. I mean, they're working on it like crazy.

27:59But I think this thing's got a way to go from a financial perspective. So two billion, I mean, it's a start, but it's certainly not going to be the finish. Coming up, quantum computing may still be on the horizon, but AI is here now, and Google is redoing its entire approach to search because of it. We talk with the man spearheading the changes, Nick Fox.

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31:09This is a story about anticipating your every want. Last week, we told you how AI is cutting into traffic for internet publishers and what that could mean for their business. But Google isn't standing still for all the challenges from chatbots. Last month, it announced the biggest changes to its search approach in over 20 years. Nick Fox is Google's senior vice president for knowledge and information and the man responsible for the changes. With your experience, rank order, which is probably unfair, this change with AI compared to other innovations you've done? Oh, I think number one for sure.

31:45For Google, that transformation includes AI-generated answers, conversational search, and new tools that can reason through complex questions, monitor information across the web, and even complete tasks on a user's behalf. How would you describe the change? You know, just to take a step back, AI is the best thing that's ever happened to search. And, you know, a lot of people are questioning that. A lot of people are saying, hey, what does AI mean for search? And what we see, you know, the vision of search is you should be able to ask whatever question is on your mind. And the way I think about that is we have probably thousands of questions that go through our head any given day.

32:20We ask maybe a few of them, maybe we ask five of them, maybe we ask 10 of them. Why do we not ask them all? Well, we don't know if there will be a helpful response to it. It might be hard to ask that question. So our big idea is you should be able to ask anything. And AI really supercharges that. AI enables people to ask whatever question is on their mind and get a helpful response. And so that's what we're pushing on. The quality of the user experience is a priority for Google, even as it's changed its search engine to put AI at its core. And Rand Fishkin, who specialized in the business of online search, says that improved experience is very much central to Google's business.

32:55Instead, they push those down and they put the instant answer from AI right up at the top. They call them AI overviews. In the long run, it's better for their user experience, and it creates an addiction to search and quick answers. If they can get people searching more and instantly answering their queries, they would come back more often. They would trust Google more, and they would click on more ads in the future. So Google is hurting themselves a little tiny bit right now, costing themselves maybe a dollar that they could charge, so that in the future, they make$5,$10,$50,$500 from you. Fox does not deny the advantages to Google if its new approach to AI-driven search gives users more reason to use its product, but sees that as a feature rather than a bug.

33:42What we're seeing with users is they're asking far more questions than they've ever asked before. They're getting the approach that we've taken, the approach that really defines what Google in search is doing with AI, is that we're able to bring the best of the web together with the best of AI. We're able to bring frontier AI capabilities built on our Gemini technology in close collaboration with DeepMind. And then we're able to bring that together with the web. So people can get links, they can discover content across the web, but they can also get helpful responses that contextualize the web and also give contextualized responses that answer their question.

34:15But Fox insists that time spent on a search is not the right metric for success. He'd rather people spend less time on a particular question or search and be able to press further to get their answers, including from the web. For us, it doesn't have to be about time and to some extent attention, but we don't measure search by how many minutes are people spending on search. We measure search by how many queries are people doing, how many tasks are people doing, actually. If it takes two queries to do a task instead of five queries to do a task, we would prefer that. We actually don't want people to do more queries in a way where they're...

34:52If they're doing more queries because they're thrashing and they're not getting a good experience, or they're spending more time because they're thrashing and not getting a good experience, that's not what we optimize for. We actually try to get people off Google as quickly as we can. It's kind of one of the things that I think has been a hallmark of Google. We do want people to be doing more things with Google. If we can help people with, you know, twice as many of their questions as we could before, that's great. But it should be they're doing more with Google because they're getting more done rather than they're spending more time to get the same set of things done.

35:22As AI takes on a greater role in helping us gain access to content on the web, there are those concerned about its use discouraging the creators of the content. Caitlin Petrie is author of the book, All the News That's Fit to Click. I think that it's really important to think about what's happening with people who make content and AI as this kind of longer story of a tussle or a conflict between tech companies and people who create media and information. And then the question becomes, if the business model for making original content, and particularly I'm concerned with journalism and art, but if the business model for making original stuff kind of goes away or becomes even more challenging and even more punishing than it already is, what do we do about that?

36:12You know, people today expect that when you come to Google, it's accurate, it's reliable. Fox says he has similar concerns that whatever Google does with AI and search not take away from the value of the content on the web for the sake of all involved. What does this mean beyond the users for the rest of the web, the rest of content generators? I mean, because Google was originally a way to organize the web, right? And a lot of content generators got linked back to their material. What does this new approach mean for them? So we remain committed to Google organizing the web. That's a core part of what we do.

36:48And I would say relative to really any other company, really any other organization out there, we care about the web incredibly, incredibly deeply. We're a company that started in the web. We're a company that still is deeply in the web. And so that is a bedrock commitment for us. And so that leads to how we actually build our products as well. So, for example, in search, it's not just AI. It's AI with links within the AI as well. We don't think the users need to make a choice. Do I want AI or the web? But rather, we can bring both of those together in a really effective way. So we have lots of links within the AI responses.

37:26It's not just because of a commitment to the web. We also think it's really useful for users. If you're interested in a topic, you want to go deep on a topic, you might get an AI summary. You might get an AI sort of overview to give you the context. But then you want to read it more deeply. You want to see original reporting on a topic. You might want to see a firsthand perspective. You might want to hear from someone who was actually there. You want to get that. You don't just want to hear from the AI. And so we're cognizant of that and we design around that. People are searching more than ever.

37:58People are searching for topics they were never searching for before. That all creates opportunities for websites to get discovered that never would have before. If a user was never asking the question, the website never would have gotten traffic, never would have gotten a click. This is an expansionary moment, not just for search, but for the web overall. Accuracy and trust have long been the foundation of Google search. But in an era of AI-generated answers, where users may never click through to that underlying source, ensuring the quality of that information has become more important than ever.

38:27Accuracy and trust are important when you're searching. How do you monitor that? Because there are a lot of people out there who actually have almost a goal of putting out information that's not reliable, that's not accurate. How do you monitor how you're doing? I mean, this is what Google has been doing for years and years. It's what we've been doing for decades. We understand the web. We understand the web very well. We understand, you know, the very early days of PageRank was that you could use the citations across the web to understand what's more valuable than others. We've obviously built on that, you know, tremendously over time.

39:01But we understand the web well. We understand what's accurate on the web. We understand what's reliable. We understand what's trusted across the web. We're also able to understand when we get it right, when we don't get it right, because we're able to understand sort of metrics across our user populations. So, for example, when we roll out a new AI experience within search, we know based on, you know, we run experiments, we run tests, and we can analyze those to see has this improved the experience or not. We only release changes that actually do improve the experience. Are there some categories of information that you have to be particularly careful about?

39:37I mean, I'm mindful of the fact we're going to have elections in the United States coming up in November. And you can have a lot of people trying to use AI and the web to misinform either political rivals or foreign governments. What do you do to protect against that? We are particularly careful on those types of questions. So if an election type of question, we're particularly careful, a finance type of question, a health kind of question. The way we approach that is in a few ways. Number one, if we don't think that the accuracy of the information is high enough, we won't show an AI response in that kind of a case.

40:08So that's kind of, that's the first level of it. The second is we invest incredibly heavily here and we focus particularly heavily in categories where the stakes are particularly high. And then the third piece is we're clear with users about what is AI generated and we indicate, you know, AI can make mistakes so that users can be cognizant of that as well. As AI reshapes how people find information online, It is also reshaping the competitive landscape. And while Google may dominate search today, the rise of AI has opened the door to a new wave of competitors. You come from a very strong position in search.

40:47I mean, you've become a verb in addition to a noun around the world. Do you have a comparative advantage against other AI companies in that you have search coming to AI rather than starting in AI? I think our advantage comes from deep expertise and a deep focus on innovation and continual reinvention. I think one of the maybe understated advantages that Google has is we've been through many disruptions before. We went through a mobile disruption. We arose in the web disruption. There was Ajax technologies. There was voice. There's been sort of time after time disruptions. Each time it would be, is this the Google killer?

41:29And we have worked through those and we have really a playbook of how to work through those, which is lean into the innovation, innovate through the disruption with an excitement about what the technology can enable and a promise to build a better product for users through it. And so I think that's a core advantage through any of these transformations is to rely on that playbook. You raise, I think, a really interesting point. I mean, was there any hesitation anywhere at Google to say, we're doing pretty well in search. Why do we need to disrupt ourselves on this? It's sort of a form of innovators dilemma.

42:09Was there any sense of, you know what, we're doing pretty well. Why rock the boat? Never. Because we've seen it before. And we understand that if you stand still, if you don't innovate for users, you'll become irrelevant. And that's so clear. We know that. We know that time and time again. And so we see a new technology come along. We jump on it. We invent the new technologies in most cases. But we see it. We jump on it. And we know that if we innovate for users, it will be expansionary. We know that our business will thrive through it. For Google, the choice was between disrupting its strong business and search or having someone else disrupt it.

42:49As AI yet again reshapes how information is discovered and consumed, the question will be, as it always is, whether this new innovation gives people what they want and need. We're seeing that users are loving it. And, you know, the best sign that we see is that queries are growing. Up next, the Men's World Cup has returned to the shores of North America for the first time since 1994. It's bigger and longer and higher profile than ever. But can the fans afford it?

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46:08This is a story about having too much of a good thing. The Men's World Cup has returned to the United States this summer for the first time in over 30 years. And this time, Mexico and Canada have joined in. It's a dramatically different championship than we saw in 1994, with more teams, more matches and a lot more money. But is there such a thing as going too far in extracting cash out of mega sports events?

46:39Manchester local Andy Milne arrived in Miami ready to cheer on England. I can't wait for that first match. When the national anthem strikes up, and I know that kickoff is two minutes away, and it's England against Croatia, and our World Cup is going to start, there's nothing like that feeling in the world. After attending his first football, or soccer in America, World Cup in 1982, this will be his 10th and easily the most expensive. And this is me with the lads at university with my England shirt on, eager and ready to go over there and watch the finals. So expensive, he wrote a book to help fund the trip.

47:18So in 1982, obviously a completely different era. Prices were cheap and you didn't have to get your tickets in advance. You could queue for tickets outside the stadium. So for the final itself, I queued for three days, which maybe sounds like a terribly boring thing to do, but it's actually great fun. And then eventually I got my ticket, and the ticket came to a princely sum of 800 pesetas, which was equivalent to£4.15, I guess around about$5.00. It's changed a bit now. It sure has. A recent Economist report found that tickets for this year's World Cup dwarf previous versions of the event. The list price for the final match is much higher than that of other marquee sports fixtures, including the Super Bowl.

48:05And that's the list price. On FIFA's official resale platform, tickets for the final are going for far beyond face value, with the organizer taking a 30 % cut. Six billion people all over the world will watch the World Cup. It's little wonder that FIFA head Gianni Infantino expects overall revenue to break the record, reaching over$11 billion, leading some to question when enough is enough. I guess my advice to Gianni Infantino, well, just make it$7 or$8 billion and put a few billion back to make this what it should be, which is a very accessible and inclusive World Cup. Peter Moore is the former CEO of Liverpool Football Club and is now part of the ownership group of football teams in California and Poland.

48:56This World Cup, it feels a little different to say the least because I don't think it's accessible. This is the world's game. This should be a platform for everybody that loves the game all around the world to be able to come, to afford to come, as they've done in all of the previous World Cups, and I've been fortunate to attend six World Cups. But we've got the issues of dynamic pricing, the secondary market, and basically I think FIFA has decided that this World Cup is where they're going to make a stated$11 billion and make this a very exclusive World Cup rather than what it should be, which is an incredibly inclusive World Cup.

49:32The idea of leaving a few billion dollars in potential revenue on the table might not be a sound strategy for most businesses. But Moore says sports are different. Football has changed since I first went to Anfield with my dad in 1959. It's a very different economy. In those days, it was his five shillings through the turnstile, and in you go and you stand on the terraces. Now it's a multi-hundred-billion-dollar business worldwide, and I get that. But you've got to balance out the fact that the people who made this game, the world's game, is the average Jack and Jill on the street, and it's not the corporate hospitality.

50:09And what we love about the game, what we love about World Cups, is the passion that comes from the stands. So it's not just filling stadiums with people, it's the right people. And by that, the average football fan who will have a trip of a lifetime to the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and you need to respect the fact that they've got this dream to do it. But right now, I worry very much that there are hundreds of thousands, if not millions of tickets in the wrong hands. And by the way, say the wrong hands, it's people who are speculators type scalpers that are looking, they see these tickets as a fungible asset that they can make money on rather than the precious seat at the world's game.

50:50It's a bigger issue for football in general is that it's becoming more expensive. You've got an older fan who maybe has had that season ticket for 30, 40 years. It's the issue of how do you maintain the ability for multi-generational support? My granddad was a Liverpool fan. My dad was a Liverpool fan. I'm obviously a Liverpool fan, but more and more people are somewhat being priced out. And the energy in the stadium for bluntly an older demographic, if you will, rather than the younger demographic that I grew up with, is starting to dwindle. And so you've got to find ways of allowing people that bring the energy, the passion, the excitement, the singing back in there and can afford to do so.

51:30It's not just the so-called beautiful game either. Sports team valuations are soaring and investors are seeing opportunities in a wide range of sports, from basketball to cricket, from baseball to pickleball. Kathy Carter has spent her career in commercial roles in sports, from the 1994 FIFA World Cup until recently as the former CEO of the LA 2028 Olympics. We obviously all know that we've seen a massive disruption in media in our country and quite frankly across the globe. And so, you know, you have different ways and micro communities that actually follow different either sports teams or communities that are developed around whatever the content might be.

52:13And I'd say that has both complicated and also given opportunity to the World Cup to what is actually happening this summer. but it does mean that there are so many ways that companies or fans can engage with the game and creates what you might say is this groundswell of commercial support for the event. And in some cases, so much more money that's at stake, both in terms of media rights. Obviously, we can talk about the ticketing, sponsorship, merchandise. I mean, we're at a scale that is very different. In 1994, we were introducing the game. And now I would say that from a World Cup standpoint, FIFA is really saying how do we now maximize the opportunity so we can take dollars and redistribute those dollars around the world.

52:59You mentioned several revenue sources, ticket sales, media rights, merchandising, corporate sponsorships. Have they grown together or have some become larger than others? Well, listen, I'd say media rights is historically the major or the number one revenue source. In this particular World Cup, given the number of tickets and certainly the pricing on the games, that is going to break all records. I would say that the FIFA World Cup final, there's no question in my mind, that will become the largest gate in the history of any sort of event that's ever been produced, just by virtue of the premium opportunities and the overall ticket pricing, etc.

53:36et cetera. While many fans will gripe about the cost of tickets to attend matches, Carter says the money made can go towards making the sport bigger and, yes, better in the long run. We're a capitalist economy and we subscribe to the adage of supply and demand. I do believe that we will see many kids and many families that will still be able to go. I think it'll be through different routes. But by the same token, you know, there is a market in this country for events. There's a market in this country to buy premium. And I'd say we're seeing what the actual ceiling on that might be as a result of this World Cup.

54:15Where does the money go? I mean, in other American professional sports, it goes, frankly, a lot of it to the players. They get paid an awful lot of money and then into the owners and the values of the team. Where does it go in the World Cup? Yeah, so that's a great question. You know, a lot of it is in support of the teams that do make it and participate. And in some cases, that funds an awful lot of their youth development programs, some of the smaller countries. It allows federations across the world to invest in the game and in the grassroots game in their countries. But it also then, a disproportionate amount will stay with FIFA, which then goes into what they do to help grow the game across the world.

54:52And whether that is investing in women's soccer is a great example, and what they've done to build the FIFA Women's World Cup into a much more significant and revenue-generating, and really the level of exposure for the women's game starts to create opportunity for women that perhaps didn't exist before. And you could say that across many different areas, whether that's in the youth space or that's in the Paralympic space where you've got cerebral palsy teams, you've got beach soccer. So there's a lot of ways that they will contribute money to help the federations around the world continue to provide opportunity for kids and for those that are coming up through the system, if you will.

55:31Both Carter and Moore agree to keep up in the world of sports, like in business, you need to be strong commercially, but you also need to keep the next generation engaged. And although there may be a market for the high-priced tickets in the United States, Moore worries that the pricing might tarnish the World Cup's legacy and damage future tournaments. When the stadiums become soulless, where there's no real atmosphere, where it becomes I'm going to an event that I want to go to because it seems like fun, rather than this is my team, this was my dad's team, this was my granddad's team. I live and die for this team.

56:07They mean everything to me. my mood, my personality is based on whether we win or lose. Those fans are being priced out. And that is a long-term price to pay that sports will have to deal with in the future if these pricing structures stay the same. As the football gets underway, Moore hopes the tournament is remembered for the action on the field and not for the cost of admission. As for whether he's attending? You know what I did? I bought a 100-inch TV for half of the price of an England ticket against Croatia. And I thought, this works. And seriously, I did. I went to Best Buy. I rationalized that this is half of the price of a Category 3 ticket to watch England against Croatia.

56:46And I bought a 100-inch TV. With all the commercial deals and billions in revenue, modern football can feel like a complex game. But the secret may lie in the simplicity. At the end of the day, it's still 11 guys in shorts and a soccer ball. I mean, that's the beauty of the game. I mean, they often say in its simplicity, it's what makes it complex. And so, you know, I believe once the national anthems get played and the ball is put in the middle of the field, it's just 11 guys playing against the other 11 guys. That does it for us here at Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. See you next week for more stories of capitalism.

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