Jack Mallers: Why I Left Twenty One

28:47So it's, you know, it's part of my personality. It's part of being a leader. But in hindsight, I think I did not do the best job at managing expectations when it became this web between shareholders and the board. And because my ability to take conversations about a unified vision and dispel them into expectations and conviction to the public, only to realize that following through on that was harder than it has historically been in my career at Strike, Like, I regret that. I did not mean to set an expectation about what this thing was going to become while I was leading it without fully appreciating what it was going to take for me to follow through on that.

29:35And that's where I own that, because I know that people believe in me, believed in me, and specifically as the leader of this thing. and um and probably and i i know just from being on the internet and seeing the comments like feel let down in that way that they heard me say things and set expectations and didn't see the follow through there and and uh feel as if i was misleading or or if i um yeah so that that was that's probably the biggest the biggest one and of course like throughout the whole thing there's tinier ones, but that's probably the biggest one because we did. I mean, we did accomplish stuff and we were on our way.

30:17And 21 can still go on to accomplish great things and be something meaningful for Bitcoin and return a lot of investment capital for shareholders. But my lack of ability to achieve what I said I would and what I wanted to while I was there, you know in hindsight I would have been I would have managed that differently so it's very hard for I think probably almost everyone listening to imagine the pressure that you're under while you did this like I have no context of it I have no idea what it's like working on Wall Street like this is a new thing for you as well right I'm sure you've learned a ton about yourself about business but it does any part of your regret ever doing it no I don't believe I also don't believe in that.

31:03I don't believe, you know, I'll tell you a story about the last bear market in 2022. So for people that don't know, in 2022, this was the Bitcoin conference that directly followed the El Salvador announcement that I made. There's lots of pressure, expectations, and Strike was a tiny little child baby. I think we released like a beta in the app store in 2021, right? So pre-revenue and mind you, after El Salvador and Bitcoin was in this craze bull run, like the bull run, I'm putting it in air quotes for the podcast listeners that we experienced in 2025, to me was not real. We didn't hit all-time highs in gold terms.

31:52It was not an actual, but like 2021 was the last bull run in my mind. And I was surrounded by professional athletes, superstar artists, the top VC firms, and everyone was inviting me to parties and giving me investment capital. I had no idea that I needed to like generate revenue, turn a profit someday. I literally, I was a kid. And I thought that all I had to do was champion Bitcoin and build stuff that was popular and people, I thought were downloading it, but I didn't even know. And run around and make sure that the orange pill message was getting through. And don't VCs fund the payroll? I had no idea.

32:41And we had worked on some partnerships that were in the very early stages with some merchant vendors. And I got out on the Bitcoin conference and I laid out the vision that I had and how we were going to, through these partnerships, get Bitcoin accepted pretty much throughout the United States. Now, fast forward, the Fed hiked rates faster than they ever had. The bull market turned into a bear market. Every vendor partnerships, R &D, crypto department got fired. Our partnerships fell through. None of it ever met the market. And strike almost failed. because all of the VC money that was like around and like, here, take this, take this, like disappeared.

33:24And like, you didn't have any revenue. You didn't have anything. And that was one of the most painful times in my life. Feel abandoned. You feel used. You feel angry. You feel depressed. And like lots of finger pointing. Like, well, why did this person tell me this? Or why did this person convince me the world worked that way? And it was that moment where I acquired some of the most valuable lessons I've ever acquired in my life. Like about ego, about who I am as a man, what I care about, what strike should be, about business, about everything. Now, strike turns out to be a very successful thing, very profitable now, big company.

34:13Now, what I tell myself and what I tell my employees all the time is how expensive were the lessons that I acquired in that moment. Think about that in hindsight. And that goes back to what I wrote in the essay, what punishments are not gifts? because I acquired a wealth of knowledge, experience, really, really painful, but valuable tutorial of how to build things, who to trust, how to set up strike. I acquired that, Danny. I didn't lose a limb. I didn't lose my parents. I didn't lose my business. I didn't lose my friends. I didn't lose any Bitcoins. I just took a couple really tough punches to the ego and needed to adopt a decent amount of humility and just emotional pain.

35:09And so, I don't know, that chapter of my life was it was very hard like oh jack is a hype marketing over promising you know uh all of the things and um you know some of those things hurt because you start to question like is that true um but then once you once you stay the course and you see the other side you realize like things that you mistake for punishments are really just gifts the world had to teach me a lot if I wanted to become the man that I am now? And how else would I have acquired what I needed to acquire if it wasn't then? And if it wasn't that, it could have been a lot worse or I could have never acquired it at all.

35:56Yeah. You only get those lessons from putting yourself out there. Yeah. And you have to pay for the lessons. This goes like to Bitcoin Austrian theory of like, there's no free lunch. You can't print the money out of thin air. You can't print the lessons out of thin air. What's the tuition fee? What's the cost of the education? And so anyway, I want to be a good man. I want to be a good, eventually, husband and dad and colleague and Bitcoiner. So I don't regret any of these things. And I think people spend too much time, honestly being depressed in wallowing about the past can't change the past um and so i do not regret it i you know what punishments are not gifts um my intentions were real what we built was real i mean it's not it's not like you know oh just kidding the bitcoin's not there yeah it's there it's a stock listed on the new york stock exchange gets quarterly audits by public markets It's like, it's a very legit thing.

37:00And I tried to do a thing. And the universe needed me to learn a lot about myself and about being a Bitcoiner and about being a man and integrity and humility and ego. And so I appreciate the lessons. And I'm very fortunate and grateful that they didn't cost me, you know, my relationship with my fiance or my health, right? So I don't know if that resonates at all, but - I just don't believe in, yeah, regretting any part of the past. Like what punishments are not gifts? I fundamentally believe that. Every Bitcoiner eventually has to answer one question. If something happened to me, would my family know what to do?

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40:15Cause I think one of the reasons that people like you so much in the Bitcoin world is because you are very authentic. You are, you do wear your emotions on a sleeve. I was like, how is he going to be handling this? And Odell was just like, he seems great. Do you feel like a weight off your shoulders? Like you're ready to go again on, you know, well, obviously keep going on strike, but just move forward. Yes. Because I have me and I have Bitcoin and that's all that like it's you don't want to say that's all that mattered because of course like it kills me that i i started this thing which uh is my baby in some ways like i created the logo and i branded it and i like registered the domain name like when i was transferring myself out of the business like i realized i still personally owned the domain you know you forget to like transfer it to corporate accounts.

41:11I'm like, man. So, um, of course I, this is not how I wanted the, my chapter with the business to end. Um, but obviously when I was presented with whatever it was going to be a money and fame and access and all this stuff, like I found myself saying no before I can even reason it out and fully understand it. Um, I just had like a physical, almost like repulsive reaction to leading something and promoting something. And the other thing too is like, I just, Danny, I would not be able to look you in the eye or look my employees in the eye or look Bitcoiners in the eye or my customers in the eye or my investors in the eye if I knew they weren't ultimately entrusting in me.

41:57And so, yeah, I have me and I have Strike and I have Bitcoin. And in many ways, that's all not only I've ever needed, but all Bitcoiners have ever wanted out of me. That was another really endearing and valuable experience is the emails and the texts and the notes I've been getting both before and after the resignation was public of just like who a lot of people view me as in the community of just someone who had never sell out, who would never compromise on their ideals and their principles, who people entrust to hold the integrity of Bitcoin as a leader and as a CEO and as a person. And yeah, so I feel I'm very excited to be able to do things my way.

42:55And that's the other thing, too. I don't know how big strike can be. I think, I mean, for a business that what, five, six years old, depending on where you count, I'm thrilled. I mean, we've got, we're in 50 % off highs and we've got over a hundred million dollars of Bitcoin. So what we make a new all-time high. I've got probably less than a hundred employees, a quarter billion dollars on the balance sheet. We produce cashflow and we're still, I mean, growing as Bitcoin grows, we'll grow. Like I'm thrilled with that. But are we going to own the most Bitcoin? Are we going to be the cover of magazines?

43:31Maybe one day. I don't know. I'm bullish. I'd like to think Strike will continue to grow into a valuable institution within the revolution that is Bitcoin. But I guess it will be a side effect of what actually matters, which is like, I want to build what I believe in. i want to build for people that believe in the things that i do i want to build for bitcoiners i want to build a company that i want to work for i want to build products that i would actually use um and that's what nothing that's okay and if strike is just like a hobbyist business you know as long as we're able to pay our own bills like i'm cool with that yep you know like i like here's another thing it does 250 million on the balance sheet count as a hobbyist business i don't think so no no but but um you know i was talking to my fiance again who by the way like superstar um people ever run into her at conferences she deserves a lot of credit for helping me weather all this stuff that's my my partner and i was talking to her and i was just obviously sad and angry and ranting and i'm like you know people say oh, it's early in Bitcoin.

44:49We're only at like 1 % of global adoption. I was telling her that's not true. Like we're not even at 1%. What's that, 85 million? Yeah, 85 million people have a vague relative understanding of Bitcoin. Nope. Not even know, not even close. And I would wage to say we're not even at 8.5 million. I'm not even sure we're at 850 ,000. See, I had this conversation with Checkmate a long time ago. I don't know if it was on a podcast or we were just chatting. I think it's a way lower number than people think. And it really is very hard because it depends how you define what someone who like understands Bitcoin is.

45:25Yeah. But if you just use the sort of the metrics that you can see, I think there's 25, something like 25 million addresses with more than a hundred dollars of Bitcoin. And as you know, like people will own, if you've been DCAing for five years, at more than a hundred dollars a month, you'll own more than 60 of them yourself. So I think if you count owning self-custody Bitcoin as understanding Bitcoin, it's probably like less than 5 million. Oh, yeah, for sure. Well, yeah, and it depends on your definition, right? Like some people will say, well, you know, this person's got proxied, proxied, proxied, proxied exposure in their proxied 401k that's proxied by the BlackRock ETF or whatever.

46:02And so they technically have exposure. But that's not how I would consider adoption. I find that, frankly, meaningless. Because if some money manager flips a switch, now all of a sudden they're unadopted. I consider it adopted. You understand what money is. You understand why it's valuable. You understand what this whole thing is supposed to do. Even vaguely. And whether you want to own the ETF or real Bitcoin, that part's irrelevant. But it's adopted in a way that's meaningful and that you get it. um i and anyways i'm uh ranting and complaining to my fiance and she makes this point of like well why don't you do something about it and it was one of those moments where i was like you're right because she's like well it doesn't sound like coinbase is educating people in the way that you want and it doesn't sound like you know these treasury companies are educating people in the way that you want.

47:02So like, why don't you do it? I'm like, well, you know, like, you know, that's not wall street and you know, the business. And she's like, but why do you care? Like, that doesn't seem like that's what it's about and what you're about and what like this means to you and to all the people, because it was a very endearing. So right in the middle of like a lot of this was going through like a decently tough time. We were touring wedding venues, my fiance saying I so it's really like a weird time right because in my professional life I'm like oh my goodness um I shouldn't be leading this thing that has diverged from what I wanted to build um but then you go on a wedding tour and you're like this is where I say I do and this is where my family's gonna start and like you know hey you want a glass of champagne I'm like I guess i mean i sure i feel guilty drinking this uh and um we kept it was it was almost it had to have been like fate or something every day multiple times people come running up say are you jack yeah sorry i'm gonna you know i don't want to take away from my fiance she had enough of the bitcoin stuff she wants to get married and like oh no i just i need to tell you you're the reason I understand Bitcoin.

48:18And, or you're the reason my dad finally got it. Or the keynote you gave in Prague was like enough for me to like fully commit and like believe that we, there's a way out and that, or, or I don't feel alone. Like you distilling these ideas makes me realize that it's not me. I'm not a weirdo. I'm not fucked up. The world's fucked up. And that like, there's a community of people that are working on it and that I could join that just by DCAing a little bit and this was happening multiple times a day and my fiance was sitting there watching it and she was just like dude like you you have it right here and like if one percent of the world is gonna like come to understand what this is all about like you do that and who cares like strike makes money and it's successful and like doesn't need to be the biggest and the wall streetist and the whatever is like that is where you seem like happy and passionate and motivated and that's also like what people have grown to appreciate out of you like i don't think people need you to be this like you know thing and by the way i didn't start 21 to become like a wall street conglomerate but anyway, that was like a really touring that wedding venues and I'm very grateful for all the Bitcoiners that stopped and said hi and said those encouraging things because my fiance was like, dude, I think you can orange spill 1 % of the world.

49:49If anyone's going to do it, who's going to do it? You should spend some of your time instead of corporate cogging. So anywho. She's totally right as well. It wasn't you that got me into Bitcoin, but I do remember there's a couple of talks you've done at conferences, especially the one you did at Madeira about the time chain, that made me reconsider the way that Bitcoin works and rethink it. Like you are brilliant. I think that's a very good thing to have on Team Bitcoin. Yeah, you know, it's funny. So another revelation is I did the Bitcoin conference where I talked about, you know, Tether Post's blog post.

50:25And like I said, I'm directionally aligned with the vision of like creating this Bitcoin thing. And if Strike needs to be a part of it, let's figure that out. And I talked about that. and was supportive of the board and Tether and like, hey, let's go try and meet and figure that out. People hated it, right? People hated the talk. It's not what they think they're going to get from you. Exactly. So, but you got to understand, Danny, I'm not a character. I'm not an actor. Like what, I've got to be as close to like what you see is what you actually get. Like there's no difference between the screen and like in real life.

51:04That's what I was saying earlier about the authenticity. That's why people love you. Yeah, and I think it's not even authenticity. I think it's also integrity. Yep. It's being able to like look, you know, whatever, Wall Street or whatever in the eye and say, you know, like you point a gun at me, I tell you, shoot it, shoot it. I'm not like, I'm not moving a muscle. I think it's integrity too. But anyway, about the keynote, my most, like the keynotes people love the most are not about my businesses or me it's about bitcoin and it's this revelation of like people want me to orange pill folks and people want me to build tools for bitcoiners and that's where I've found like a like a life glitch of purpose and passion and like something I could do forever and that that's I guess why I'm absolutely full of energy and full of enthusiasm despite just like getting my ass kicked and getting punched in the mouth like pretty bad and failing publicly in a fairly embarrassing way is because like these revelations of like I shouldn't do keynotes about and obviously some of my employees are investors are like no no no you should talk about strike and of course like probably people hopefully people support me over time by using our products but yeah that of like people saying like i i don't want you to talk about 21 or well i want you to talk about bitcoin and hope and this revolution and want you to like lead in a way.

52:47And that's something that you can do that most other business owners, even within the Bitcoin space, can't. Every keynote now is about a company at these big conferences. There's very few that are actually about Bitcoin, and it used to only be about Bitcoin, really. But if you put the CEO of Robinhood, I don't know, on stage at the Bitcoin conference, he can't talk about Bitcoin like you can. That's a huge advantage you have. Yeah, I mean, it's a very counterintuitive business strategy is like, don't do any marketing. Don't talk about yourself at all. Do right for the mission and for the vision and for everyone else.

53:21And then, you know, hopefully it's reciprocated back by people supporting you through product, through using your products. Like you could buy Bitcoin a million places. Why would you buy it here? Well, you know, we have good fees and free withdrawals and all the good stuff. But then also like you resonate with who I am and who we are. It's a counterintuitive idea. and I have no idea if it's like scientifically sound and if that's going to work. But the point is, like, I'm okay. There was people doing all the Twitter clipping where they clip your videos out of context and post it for views and everyone gets in a fight.

53:58And there's a clip that goes viral constantly, which is like, I said, we wanted to own the most Bitcoin in the world, which is, of course - Who doesn't, I do. Who doesn't, right? But it should be known, I don't need to. I don't need to. The Bitcoins don't generate yield. They don't give you any more power over the protocol. They sit there. And I'm not saying that less is more in Bitcoin. It's certainly not the case, especially if something finitely scarce, more is more. But the point is, I don't need that. and that was like one of the very painful things of my ego is like well i see opportunities i have big business partners i can list the public equity and i can i can i can and it was like the ego has to die once more and the integrity and the humility has to be proven because it's one thing to say i'm not for sale and my principles aren't for sale my voice isn't for sale but it's another for someone to put a check in front of your face and say like, well, actually.

55:10And then for me to, you know, really feel what it means for Bitcoiners around the world to feel inspired and feel connected to me and what I represent. And then, you know, to have the, you know, and to really like be tested to the fire in that way, it's different. And I learned all of that as a very excited. Like part of where I'm going to be spending more of my time is content of just like, yeah, I don't think Coinbase is going to do a lot of like specific orange pilling. Like why? And I don't know if me creating tons of really well-produced videos and like commercials on what is money, Austrian theory, free markets.

55:58I don't know if that's going to make me a lot of money or make me a lot of sats per share. I don't know, but I don't care, you know? And I, I mean, yeah, Satoshi, Hal, you know, like they didn't either. So I don't know. It's each their own, but. I think that's awesome. I just have one last question on the 21 stuff and then I've got a ton of other things I want to talk to you about. Yeah. I mean, we could go as long as you want. When, so I know your dad has been a mentor to you throughout your entire sort of business career. For anyone who doesn't know, he's also like an OG Bitcoiner. He's quite to the point, I think, would be fair.

56:36I'd be really curious if he gave you any advice through this. I was thinking about it on the way over. Oh my goodness. I mean, what's funny is my dad sold his first business for, I mean, I'm not going to overly dox and share my family's history, but for like the revenue that strike generates and like uh so like a a minuscule number relative to where this bitcoin stuff has taken us like people view my father or my family because of some wiki page that they found as like this all dominant banking empire i mean strike you know like i said generates more revenue than the total value of my dad's company in a short amount of time and my dad's what like it's all bitcoin like we're just early to bitcoin very lucky good timing and it's funny because my dad the first time someone wanted to acquire strike was in 2021 i don't know if i've ever told this story but i called my dad and i said well dude this is like an amount of money i never thought like what the hell should i sign it and he told me yeah like duh are you crazy and i ended up not obviously and for for similar reasons uh but then he's always said you know my son has more ambition in his pinky than i do in 10 times of my bodies my son is out of his fucking mind he's a crazy lunatic he's like gonna build a revolution and stand on principles and integrity and like i mean i would have sold strike years ago so i think there's that part of my dad which I just find kind of funny he's more of a traitor than but the part of my dad that I've taken with me that is incredibly meaningful and all in the advice and my experiences is the integrity and what it means to be a man and a good person like he when I had conversations with him about it he said the difference between a good man and a great man an honorable man, an integral man, is doing the right thing no matter how hard it is.

58:49Because people don't appreciate that doing the right thing is not for lack of understanding what is right. You know what is right. You know that eating the chicken is better for you than eating the donut. You know that going to the gym is better than sitting on the couch. You know these things within you. But the question is, what level of commitment do you have to doing what's right, despite how difficult it may be? And he was just very supportive of like, you know in your heart what's right. Don't convince yourself that it's more complicated than that. And you're a great man, and I've raised you to be a great man.

59:35And the difficult part, but the worthy part, is committing to doing it despite how challenging it may be. Failing in public, taking the criticism, not being able to tell the full story, dealing with the consequences of mistakes. That's the hard part. The easier part might have been taking a bunch of money and taking a bunch of access and stuff. And the company might work, it might not. It might be aligned with me, it might not. But beggars can't be choosers. And that was probably easier. sometimes the easy thing to do is to avoid the hard thing. And so that, you know, despite it's funny, like he can't believe the level of ambition and where my career has gone, but still at the core is just where I get my integrity from and, and humility and, and, and kind of just like a, I'm fearless and not afraid to fail and own it and stuff like that comes from him.

1:00:40That's awesome. Is there anything else on the 21 before we move on? On the 21 thing? You tell me, man. I mean, I've asked all the things that were major questions for me. I didn't know if there's anything else that you kind of almost wanted to get off your chest, though. Hmm. I don't think so.

1:00:59I'll just reiterate, 21 is a company and we built a thing and the thing has 43 ,514 Bitcoin and it's listed on the New York Stock Exchange. So access to capital markets is a huge advantage. Having that much Bitcoin is a huge advantage. And I think the company can go on and be great. and I believe in the people that are on the board and and I believe in Giancarlo and Tether and so I don't know I I just you know I sometimes I I see people say like you rug pulled me and I get it I'm not saying that like I I'm not disowning outcomes and I'm not pointing fingers but like it's still a company and it and it can go on and do great things um the announcement was more that i'm not the right person to lead it anymore because of the divergence between the company's beliefs and my beliefs and um lessons have been learned albeit painfully and i'm very grateful to be in the position i am now i'm very excited to do bitcoin my way and create more content and I'm back.

1:02:15Let's go. Uh, you ready for the gear shift of all gear shifts? Yeah. Yeah. Can we talk a bit about markets? Yes. So I've done, um, a few shows over the last week that have, I feel like they've crystallized what I think is going to happen next. Um, that's going to potentially age like milk, but especially a conversation I had with Luke Groman yesterday, and that show will actually go out after this one. Nice. But we were talking about the, um, the AI CapEx boom, and if that's reaching its endpoint. We were talking about how it's almost a sprinkling of 2001 and 2008 at the same time. And I've got this thought in my head that, does the AI CapEx slow down at the same time as China open-weight models take over and potentially become very, very competitive with the frontier labs?

1:03:03And what situation does that then put the US government in? And it seems like the obvious answer is they then regulate the Chinese companies. They probably have to print a ton of money if these AI frontier labs seem too big to fail. And is that where we get sort of the next big print? Probably.

1:03:26Like I would assume, to me it's very simple. Like why does anyone borrow money in the first place? Well, you're pulling forward your future. That's what borrowing money and incurring debt is, is you're taking future productivity and you're spending it today. So you're taking future time, energy, effort, labor, all of the money things I go on about. And you're spending it now. And you're doing so because you think you can actually arrive at that future state with more than if you didn't. So you have to pay that debt back. You have to produce profits. And you have all these companies that have borrowed a tremendous amount of money with no seemingly obvious way of paying it back.

1:04:10And so you keep seeing the can being kicked from, well, we're going to borrow from your classic venture capitalists like SoftBank. And then we're going to borrow from Oracle. And then Oracle's credit worthiness looks awful. And so they've now kicked it to NVIDIA, which happened this week. I don't know if you and Luke had an opportunity to talk about that. I mean, NVIDIA backstopping$250 billion of an open AI build out in Ohio is outrageous. That's 135 % of their retained earnings. I mean, that's an astronomically high number. And their stock got hit for that. And then you would assume that this is going to continually get kicked up to, ultimately, who's paying for financing something that may not be productive enough to make everyone whole for it.

1:04:54And the part that I assume you talked about, Luke, with China is, well, if OpenAI, for example, they're the most, it's the economics around OpenAI, the amount they've borrowed, the lack of their path to profitability is like the cleanest target to talk about. but it's for all of, I mean, Anthropic as well. But if you borrow a billion dollars, assuming you're going to have X amount market share, be able to charge X amount, and then China comes out and it's, you know, a hundred times cheaper and about as good. Well, then your credit worthiness and your ability to pay back really takes a hit. And so it's become abundantly clear that this cost is going to have to be realized by somebody, that it's not clear that there hasn't been malinvestment and there isn't going to be losses that have to be realized.

1:05:46And this is at the scale of trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars. Now, when it comes to politics, according to the Trump administration, they claim that AI is a race that we must win strategically against China. They also have declared it a national security threat if we don't win. So across the political sphere of elevating this to supreme importance, they've used all of them. You know, strategic national security threat, you know. And it is the economy. War, right. I mean, it also is representative of all of the GDP growth, right? And so if that were to slow down all of the job creation, all the reindustrialization that's going on.

1:06:24And so, yeah, now you have a very classic political question, unfortunately. Seemingly, someone has to lose is where this looks like it's going. It doesn't look like everyone that borrowed money is going to be able to pay it back. The productivity was as planned. And it's not that AI isn't awesome. I think AI is great. It's here to stay. It's that, wait a second, did anyone realize that China was going to have open source, like near free competitors to a business that needs to somehow make whole on like trillions of dollars that says they don't view profitability until like 2035? Like, did anyone like, so someone has to lose.

1:07:06There's been malinvestment. And ultimately, it sounds like it's going to be a question of the government and the central bank of who's going to lose. Are you going to let? And the other problem is all of the Mag7, like all of these big tech companies are now looped into this. They've gone from extremely cash flow positive cash generating businesses to businesses that carry debt that are no longer participating in stock buyback. So you've got the most heavily weighted S &P 500 in the U.S. capital markets, which is the United States savings account. So if you let the AI trade in large part unwind and fail, then, you know, the NVIDIAs and the Googles and the Metas and stuff will take a big hit.

1:07:46They take a big hit. Then U.S. wealth takes a big hit. And so it's a question of, like, who is allowed to fail? And if no one's allowed to fail, well, then, yeah, then you have to paper it over with printed capital. Do you think they are already too big to fail? No one's too big to fail. Again, these are political. We have invented man-made conditions to allow ourselves to decide who's too big to fail. In the most basic form of pure free markets in Austrian theory, there's no one too big to fail. You fail, it's like a form of Darwinism. The giraffe with a neck not long enough to eat died. That's not a good or bad thing.

1:08:32That's the natural thing. That's evolutionary. That's science. And so if you borrow a bunch of money and spend said money with an inability to pay it back, your future is not up to you. People need to understand a business's biggest competitor always is their costs. You're only competing against your costs because your right to wake up and continue to run your business is if you're earning more than it costs you to run it, period. And so if you're not in that position, your future is not up to you. It's up to Oracle. It's up to now NVIDIA. And eventually, it'll be up to the US government. So these are all man-made constructs that are recent.

1:09:11So do I think that the US government will let them fail? No, I don't. I think that we will print the money. But yeah, that is increasingly where this is all headed. And I think what Luke is probably getting at, and that this is more like 2008 than 2000, You know, people say, oh, this is the dot-com bubble and it's online. But the dot-com bubble was over-exuberance about the future of technology and the internet, meaning the equities were just valued too much. We were too excited and too rewarding of what these businesses could produce in the near-term future. And the value of the equities just had to come down.

1:09:51The problem with AI companies is they're not software companies. companies. They're like real estate companies almost. When you see Google go from producing ungodly amounts of cash and taking that cash and plowing it into the equity, that's what gets you these crazy premiums is because the largest purchaser of the stock is the person printing billions of dollars where their costs are relatively fixed and they're able to still grow. Now, all of a sudden, Google's riddled with debt and they're issuing ATM equity. They're like diluting the equity to finance this stuff. So that's not over exuberance of equity based on the future.

1:10:32That's like, wait, that's more like 2008 real estate market. So I assume that was the Luke conversation. Yeah, that was basically it. And the thing that Luke said, obviously in a healthy market, he was saying, if you're too big, well, get smaller is the answer. But it's whether the US government will let them get smaller because of those national security implications, as well as the fact that they're driving all the economy GDP growth. Yeah, I mean, I agree with all of that. And it's also, you know, again, the problem is if you're too big, get smaller, sure. But after you've borrowed so much, get smaller is not an option.

1:11:08You have to produce the productivity necessary to pay that back. I mean, you want to take an example. What about the$40 trillion of debt the United States is in? Well, should the United States just get smaller? That's not an option. they have to find the growth necessary to pay that back. And it will be some combination of hopefully productivity through innovation in America combined with debasement of the debt. Like, you know, now how is that? Is that split 50-50 or is it split 199? It will probably be lots of inflation and, you know, deficit monetization. But yeah, I don't know if they can get smaller, both because the U.S.

1:11:43government probably wouldn't want that competitively, But also because, again, like someone has to, you got to, and the way that these companies do it is they're refinancing based on their equity. So, and I assume, you know, so one of the issues is what they keep doing is they take on a bunch of financial obligations. They borrow a bunch of money. We're building all these data centers. We're doing all this shit. And then they raise a private venture capital round that values the equity up, which then allows them to refinance everything because their equity capital is now worth more. Like OpenAI goes from being worth$8 billion to$80 billion to$800 billion.

1:12:24And then you can continue to refinance that. But then my suspicion of why these businesses halted going public is because you know who's not as giving and as easy as the public markets. The public markets aren't going to be like, oh, I'll give you this markup. We believe in the roadmap. Send the deck to my email. The public markets are a bit more ruthless, and they also involve foreign capital. And if there's a war, sometimes things trade down for things that are outside of your control. and if these companies lose the you know equity value and that starts to drop then they lose the ability to refinance it i mean open ai already is not credit worthy enough to borrow from a bank this is why they need nvidia to step in because effectively a bank is saying we don't believe in your ability to backstop all of this like we need someone who's far more credit worthy to be able to step in and say, no, no, no.

1:13:17If shit hits the fan, I'll handle it. So yeah, it's a mess. I do not think it's going to end well. I think there's been malinvestment. And I also do not think the United States can ban Chinese models either. I know that you said you think that's what they might do. I do not think that. I don't know if it is what they'll do, but there's been talk of it. Like people have been talking about whether regulation is going to be the way to get through But the interesting thing is, if it does come down to the Treasury Department and the Fed to kind of backstop these major companies, it's going to be the most politically unpopular decision ever.

1:13:52Like, people already hate the data centers. They're very scared of AI. And if you look back at 2008, it's like, we print money or you all lose your houses. Like, that was relatively politically palatable, I think. COVID, it's like no one really knew what was happening. It kind of makes sense in the moment, but this one doesn't. And I don't know if it will to most of the Americans. But I'm not sure anything has been politically popular for a long time. That's fair. I think trust in government and institutions, according to recent polling, is still under 30 % and declining. So I don't think the people believe in what big corporations and government has been telling them for a while.

1:14:35I don't think that AI is piercing through a layer of trust that we had before ChatGVT hit the app stores. I don't think that's the case. I mean, what's going on in New York is equally as polarizing, but just on the opposite side of the spectrum. Totally. So yeah, I think the system is crumbling upon itself. I would recommend everyone read a book called The End Times by Peter Turchin. Luke recommended the same book. Oh, did he? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he's a really fascinating guy. He basically takes science and math and tries to make sense of history. And so he looks at the fall of empires and, you know, cyclical behavior in human history of like the Roman Empire grows, achieves great things, and eventually collapse.

1:15:34And oh, there's Chinese empires that had similar behavior. Is there any mathematical correlation there that we can identify and future project to try and understand mistakes that we shouldn't make? And the two core KPIs that he comes up with for an empire that is in potential decline is decline of wage growth. So things are going up in price and you're not getting compensated. So there's a divergence between the price of things and how much you're getting compensated in real terms. So the decline of growth of wages. And then the other is what he calls elite overproduction, where you are producing more elite aspirers, potential elites, which I consider, you know, you go to a coastal university, you want to be a lawyer, you want to be the president, you want to be a hedge fund manager, you know, like that's what it means now to afford the American dream.

1:16:32You cannot be a blue collar welder. You cannot be a handmade manufacturer. So all of those jobs, you know, because of the printed money and the globalism are now elsewhere. So in order to make a life for yourself in this country, you have to be a coastal elitist. And the problem is there's just not enough room for everybody. And he makes this point that, well, when you think of revolutionaries, you assume, well, it's the poor that must be taking out the pitchforks or pointing the guns at people and threatening to shoot up and protesting. And that's actually not true. You know, the poorest, you know, the homeless people in Chicago are not like, didn't put a bullet into Charlie Kirk.

1:17:09It was a university-educated kid. And it's elite aspirants that realize there's not enough room for them. And the combination of those two, this guy identifies as a leading indicator for an empire in decline, is where the real wages can't keep up with the prices of the goods and services, and there's too many elites aspiring and not enough room for them. And that's when you get revolutionary forth-turning tendencies. So that's what I think is happening. Yeah, I mean, I think it's just from looking around, it feels like that's what's happening. Yeah. Do you think, like we talk about in Bitcoin all the time, this sort of death of fiat currency, the death of the dollar.

1:17:48Do you think it's happening? Because like essentially what you're saying is malinvestment's got us here. And if the Fed and the Treasury do step in and try and prop these too big to fail AI companies up, it's like malinvestment on malinvestment. And when does that spiral end? Like, do you think this is not the start of the end, but we're in the end times of this? It could be, but you got to define end. What's end to you? End is hyperinflation of the currency. Like no dollar at all? Maybe not no dollar at all, but like huge levels of inflation. I don't know exactly how you define the end, but I think you'll know the end when you see it.

1:18:21Yeah, but I think that's kind of the issue with this conversation is that, you know, was COVID the end of fiat? It feels like a lot of these may be the start of the end. Right, right. Right. But like COVID could have been. I mean, we had double digit inflation in the United States and you saw incredible amounts of asset inflation. And so, I mean, you could make the argument that like, yeah, I mean, know the end when you see it, but it's the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent type of thing. It feels like a tower that to your point has already been tipped over and is falling, but the fall could take what amount of time and when is it technically fallen, like when it's already like elevated off the ground, but not totally on the cement.

1:19:09So I don't know. But yeah, I agree with the, I do think that treasuries, like sovereign debt as the reserve asset of the world, that's changing today, already has been. Like central banks have not added on net to this sovereign paper, US sovereign paper in like a decade. and they've been buying gold and now gold balances have exceeded these paper fiat currency balances. And so I think we're seeing a repricing of the world. People are repricing down fiat paper claims. And that has been happening. And I do agree with you that that'll... And so that looks like a significantly higher gold, a significantly higher Bitcoin, significantly higher assets.

1:19:55but you know is um so i mean the dollar is ending i don't know it just depends on your definition uh the dollars ended for me a long time ago i yeah i don't use it much if ever um so it depends it's like i'm a bit of a hypocrite for saying this because if you'd have told me 10 years ago when i first got into bitcoin that the price would be 65 000 i i wouldn't have believed you but at the same time i look at what's going on i'm like how is bitcoin this cheap right now and you said earlier in the show, you were like, we didn't really have a bull market. You don't think we had a bull market in 2025.

1:20:29Like what's happening? Why do you think we are still here? Because to me, Bitcoin, it's the only free market we have left, truly free. And so for that reason, to steal a Luke Groman line, it's like the last functioning smoke alarm of fiat liquidity. So it somehow is the only thing that's able to tell us the truth, or at least it tells us the truth in real time. Everything else seems to lag. And so to me, Bitcoin is just expressing the dire straits that fiat is in. It's effectively telling me, so if it's a fiat liquidity smoke alarm, what it's telling me is there's not enough liquidity in the system to support all of this.

1:21:09So all these people have borrowed all this money and there's not enough productivity to make everybody whole. And so that's what it's saying, which I think is a very honest view. Like when Bitcoin started to fall in the beginning of this year and took a tumble and everyone's like, well, gold's still up and equity's still up. Well, just give it a second. Give it a few months because these things, you know, they don't trade on weekends. They're circuit breakers. They're central planning and intervention. I mean, the essay that I wrote was about how Bitcoin is so free that it, you know, however bad you think bear markets can get, they will get worse.

1:21:46And however good you think bull markets can get, they will get better because it is the most natural way for you to experience the world as it actually is. Because there's no one in the middle editing your version of reality. Everything else around us is like a sanded down version where like the sharp edges are rounded off. And so everything else gets towards what Bitcoin has been expressing for some time. There's just not enough fiat for this thing to work. And so whether that means people are going to fail or the U.S. government is going to have to, and the central bank is going to have to create more fiat to make it work.

1:22:20That's all Bitcoin has been continuously expressing. And you get these weird moments where after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, Janet Yellen did some very clever financing in draining the reverse repo facility. And that gave Bitcoin some legs to have what we would consider the 2020, what was that, three to 2025 run. But I don't think that there's been a full business cycle. I mean, rates have remained high. Monetary policy has remained tight. Even now, Kevin Warsh has remained what he claims to be a hawk. We might have a cut this week. And so monetary policy since that 2021 era has been tight.

1:23:01I mean, the Fed has drastically reduced its balance sheet. The business cycle has been fairly depressed. And I think Bitcoin is telling you that like very honestly. And until they start providing the liquidity that is necessary to make the system whole, Bitcoin won't run. It makes total sense. But does Bitcoin need the central bank to start cutting rates for it to run? Like when does it break out of this sort of tech trade that it's become?

1:23:34I'm not sure. I mean, I don't, you know, when people, people get frustrated by the correlation to tech, I don't know. I've always viewed Bitcoin as some combination of technology plus fiat liquidity. It is a technology. It is like, it is software that solved a previously impossible computer science problem. So it is innovative. It's disruptive. It is dematerializing existing industries and creating new ones. And so in that respect, it is technology. And you can try and price future growth based on activity. And you mentioned addresses that hold certain amounts and all of that stuff. And then the other combination is it is a reflection of fiat liquidity.

1:24:15Like in many respects, Bitcoin is priced on the expectation of future fiat. And so when the expectation of future fiat, like if Warsh comes out and says, I'm cutting interest rates by 300 basis points, like Bitcoin is going to fly because the expectation of future credit and fiat in the system is drastically rising. And so then there's Bitcoin as well. And so it's some weird combination of that. And like people get very frustrated. It's like, no, it's just like a tech stock. I don't think so. Oh, it's just like gold. I don't know about that. So will it ever like fully decouple? I don't know. I don't know why it should need to.

1:24:49I think your question is, when will Bitcoin act more risk off as opposed to risk on? Well, it feels like it should be both. Right. But what does that mean? Always go up. Yeah. Which is like, you know, why isn't Bitcoin always going up? Well, you know, you can answer that question. And the other thing too, that I think is fascinating is I've gone through the mental exercise, which is probably helpful for others, which is, well, why aren't central banks and governments adopting Bitcoin today in size. And I asked, well, could they have adopted it on the first block? Like the very first 50 Bitcoin that were mined, would the United States have started to like sovereignly hold a real treasury in that?

1:25:36And the answer is no, because it didn't have the skeletal build to support liquidity and trade that big because the next block was another 50 Bitcoins. And so you would have gotten debased heavily because you would have gone from, I own 50 out of 50 to I own 50 out of 100. That's serious inflation. That's 100 % inflation. And so the early Bitcoin supply was extremely inflationary and it incentivized a tremendous amount of speculation. And, you know, Satoshi begged speculators to come and speculate on Bitcoin. He begged them because he's basically, you know, cutting the issuance in half and basically saying, if you want to get in early on this thing, you only have so much time.

1:26:27You can't wait to see if it works because then you're too late. And he built this curve on purpose. But it was so inflationary in the beginning that like no large, you know, the government can't buy. I mean, China's trade surplus was a trillion dollars last year. That's like the size of the entire Bitcoin market. So it also has this interesting, like, it's not a problem, but it has this, its skeletal frame can only support so much mass as well. It's a great thing. It means that the people who are cleaning toilets and selling baklava got to get Bitcoin early. Correct. Correct. Shout out Mandrake.

1:27:02Shout out Mandrake. But Danny, it's such a prescient point that needs to be understood. somehow Satoshi engineered the thing to make sure that it got distributed to the people. And people say, well, it's because he leaked it on a mailing list. Probably true. Well, it's because it was anarchist, libertarian, cypherpunk leaning. Probably true. But it also is almost like scientific because you could not have aped into this thing early on. It was far too inflationary. It was far too volatile. The float of the thing was not large enough. Float Meaning how much liquid supply was actually active because I can't get in and out with any real liquidity until it was far more mature.

1:27:43Strategy as we know it today could not have existed when Saylor first wrote Bitcoin off. It just couldn't have because of the skeletal frame. So the only people that functionally could have spent time understanding it and adopting it were the individual. It almost was forcefully a bottoms-up movement by design, which I don't know how much of that was purposeful. We never will. But it's an unbelievable achievement to somehow build something that is, how do you fairly distribute new money without knowing anyone's name, without having them registered anywhere central, and do it in a way where it becomes bottoms-up and individually owned, so much so that now that it's a trillion-dollar asset, it's fairly impossible to corner the market or to take it over.

1:28:29So yeah, I think Bitcoin, you know, like I got into Bitcoin before sailors, sailors getting into Bitcoin before governments. And I think that's a good thing. And I think it's by design. And so why isn't Bitcoin up only hyper-Bitcoinization? It's like, well, there's almost like physical limitations to, you know, like if you're a central bank, you know, someone asked me on my podcast during the live Q &A yesterday, said, well, why doesn't the United States, China's buying a lot of gold, record amounts of gold. They're clearly remonetizing gold. And if they're our enemy, why don't we sell all of our gold, crash the gold price and buy a bunch of Bitcoins?

1:29:05It's like, well, Bitcoin's only worth a trillion dollars. So like if Bitcoin's going to become a$50 trillion asset and the United States is going to own 49 trillion of it and then sell it to who? And to themselves, it's like it's going to be adopted in this very like methodical way. I think that's the really key point. It's like, we don't know if that was on purpose or if that was an accident of the design, but we do know it's the only reason it's still here and it's still interesting because if it didn't have that supply schedule, it just wouldn't be. If Satoshi went to Goldman Sachs and said, hey, I solved the Byzantine Generals problem.

1:29:39I'd like to IPO it on the New York Stock Exchange. Bitcoin would have failed. So it is a miracle. And the innovation of using proof of work to say, you know, the current, because everyone is purchasing Bitcoin, whether with fiat currency on strike or in mother nature's currency, which is energy. But you have to do real work in the real world to get Bitcoins. No one's ever gotten them for free. Apart from when they had the, what were they called, the faucets. Sure. But that was someone else donating their real work in the real world. But the point is Bitcoin has a very strict policy that you have to expend real work that someone else values in order to obtain this thing.

1:30:22And the currency Satoshi used to fairly distribute Bitcoin is, I'll take energy in exchange for newly minted coins. And it's not he'll take energy. The network will take energy and use energy in exchange for newly minted coins. And it's such an ingenious idea of that's how I'll decide who gets it. Not by their skin color, not by their eye color, not by their hair color, but by whoever's able to harness the cheapest energy and channel it to the network. And then to have the insight on top of that, well, what if everyone figures it out and starts channeling a bunch of energy to the network? Or what if people get disenthused and take the energy off of the network?

1:31:01How do we give it a consistent heartbeat? Because if the thing starts beating too fast, it's going to have a heart attack. If it doesn't beat enough, it's going to die because lack of blood flow. So how does it beat just enough every 10 minutes on average? And to layer on the difficulty adjustment on top of that, And so that Bitcoin has a predictable heartbeat that everyone can rely on. And the heart is going to beat a certain amount of time in the early days, which will bring a certain crowd and bring the individual and not necessarily have the physical frame for the institutions and the sovereigns to be able to actually monetize it.

1:31:38And only 20 years later, it's a remarkable achievement. It's probably one of the most impressive things I've ever seen. Yeah, I don't know about you, but it still blows my mind, the way that it was designed. And again, you have to just assume that everything was intentional because it's worked. But to think this far ahead in the game theory of the whole thing, it's insane. And going back to the first part of this episode, which is a different world, 21 and stuff, but that's what inspires me is Satoshi didn't, there was no ego involved. There's no statue of Satoshi. He's not on Time Magazine. He didn't take the Bitcoins that he mined early.

1:32:19yeah the guy just wanted but but that didn't represent lack of ambition just because right but but the guy uh yeah he he he cared deeply about building and crafting something that worked and solved a very specific problem and it was good enough to last long enough to then bleed into solving like many other problems but i don't think satoshi had the ambition of fix the money fix the world or had the foresight to figure out that Bitcoin would also inspire people to stop eating carbs. I don't think he had that foresight. I think he was like, well, hold on a second. The core issue with money as it exists today are the central parties that are required.

1:33:03And in order for me to fix that and have a money that doesn't have that reliance, I got to solve the Byzantine generals problem. And it's just, okay, well, if I put that, okay, I think I solved it. What do you guys think? And it was just caring about the craft, the lack of ego and the level of humility and integrity that that took is so inspiring. And to engineer something so well, that's so focused and so simple and so honest, that it's able to scale and last as long as it did and grow into solving so many other things. So Bitcoin's won in so many ways. But getting back to something we said earlier about the number of people who are holding self-custody Bitcoin, do you think there's been a slight failure there?

1:33:45because we have ETF adoption, we have institutional adoption, there's a nation state that has Bitcoin on the balance sheet, but only, let's guess, 5 million people holding on-chain Bitcoin. Is that a failure? No, I don't think so. You know, like when I was saying Bitcoin adoption, I'm thinking people have a vague understanding or some remote understanding of what it is and why it's different, why it's important. I would say a lot of the ETF holders have that. Like I would say Larry Fink has that. A lot of the fund managers that I meet that get exposure via the ETF have that. And that's to me what matters because it's the conscious, you know, people say I'm in it for the technology.

1:34:26I'm not in it for the price. That's what - I'm in it for both. Right. But you know, your question, it doesn't imply that, but it alludes to this culture of like, what's ETF adoption if it isn't, you know, someone holding their own keys? Like, we're in it for the tech. We're in it for the revolution. We're not in it for, you know, for the number go up. And my response to that is, the number go up is the only metric that matters in Bitcoin. Because it tells us how much of the world is storing their cash balance, their time, energy, effort. How much of the world is monetizing Bitcoin. That's the only thing that matters.

1:35:04When the price goes up, Bitcoin is getting more adopted. When the price goes down, Bitcoin is getting less adopted because people are storing less of their effort and less of their future in this thing. And so to me, that's what matters. And if people can, people are, because every single day you have to make a monetary decision. People don't appreciate that. Every single day I wake up and I say, okay, I'm storing my future and the work I've done in the past in Bitcoin. Do I still want to do that? And I make a conscious decision. Yeah, I do. I almost re-employ Bitcoin to be my money and weapon of choice to provide for my future and protect the work I've done in the past every day.

1:35:49I wake up, I go, yep, this is still the right choice. And so the fact that people are making those decisions at the margin via the ETF, via these instruments, that's fine. Of course, I think that there's counterparty risk implied in that. And then the most pure expression of Bitcoin is owning it in cold storage, buying the physical. I'm not comfortable holding it with the state or with a fund or whatever. But to me, adoption is making that conscious decision at the margins of, okay, I could do treasuries, I could do dollars, I could do Nvidia stock. Nah, I'm going to do Bitcoin. And that's, we're monetizing a thing in real time.

1:36:31To me, that's adoption, you know? Yeah, makes sense. Why do you think that gold had a bull run last year when we didn't? Because you would expect the two to move in tandem. And every bull run we've broken new all-time highs versus gold. Um, because I think that China is the answer. I think that gold is being reintroduced into the financial system as a reserve asset. And I think a lot of that was East and China. And I don't know if who was buying gold in size was competing. Gold was competing with Bitcoin. I don't know if Bitcoin was an option. I view it as they were rejecting the notion of sovereign debt and treasuries and re-monetizing a neutral thing.

1:37:24But I don't think Bitcoin was actually competing for that monetary use case. It's just not big enough. and so that is my honest answer because going back to what we were talking about Bitcoin implied in it is individual and retail adoption implied in it is small medium sized businesses and now institutions and treasury company adoption and stuff there is not a sovereign bid yet and so the fact that so many central banks and China and everyone was If you look at the growth of the Chinese international payment system, I think that's it, C-I-P-E-S, skyrocketing. And people are settling trade in their currency, but their currency is effectively gold-backed at this point because they're taking all of their trade surplus and they're just recycling it into gold.

1:38:22And so you're seeing this like re-monetization, this reintroduction. And the US government is actually exporting non-monetary gold to help settle trade deficits. And so I think gold is, I think it's good. Well, it's good for Bitcoin because it's promotional of the long-term thesis that sovereign debt and paper claims are worthless. Right. And, but it just was a different bid. It was a different bid. the liquidity hasn't flowed all the way down yet. It's this kind of K-shaped thing. And you think that's just, again, we're too small?

1:39:02Yeah. Well, so I would say it's just a practical question of, okay, China wants to, so let's say China's bought trillions of dollars of gold over the last few years. Like how would they have, let's say they wanted to do it. Like how? But like, are you surprised they didn't even do even 1 % in Bitcoin? No, but who's to say they didn't? True. I think they are. If I were a sovereign and I knew that I couldn't take trillion dollar trade surplus and smash buy, you know what I would do? Stop mining. Mining. You know what they're doing? Mining. Yeah. I think they are. I wouldn't be convinced that they're not.

1:39:40But that's the amazing part is like it's all fair. Like I'm DCAing. China's mining. I don't think they can smash by a trillion. And Bitcoin will build this skeletal frame with time that can be supportive of that level of liquidity. And I think we're getting there very, very soon because what's so important is the halvings, cutting the inflation rate. Now, the stock to flow of Bitcoin is better than gold. So I would say Bitcoin has achieved the skeletal frame. And now it needs a higher floating price. The most attractive thing about a gold or about a Bitcoin is it's like a zero yielding bond, but can go infinitely high in price.

1:40:26A bond can only go so high because then the yield hits zero. Right. And vice versa. Governments won't let bonds go so low because the yield hits too high for them to afford. So Bitcoin is like it's zero yielding, but it's infinite price. And that's kind of like the escape hatch of all of the needed money printing and liquidity. It's like, where's it going to go? People say, oh, they need to debase the dollar. The dollar needs to get weaker. Sure. But against what? Probably if the currency of choice to debase the dollar against is the Chinese currency to help rebalance this trade. But think of it this way, Danny.

1:41:04If China ran this trillion dollar trade surplus, let's say, or whatever, based on the amount of, and they didn't pour it all into gold, obviously. But let's say, based on the amount of gold that China has been importing and purchasing as a sovereign, and they ran a surplus of a trillion, and I think that was globally. I don't know how much of that was US-specific. What would the price of gold had to have been for the trade to be neutral? Does that make sense? Where they ran such a—so the amount of imported gold, well, the way you can balance the trade is very simple. if gold was$25 ,000 an ounce, China didn't run a surplus at all.

1:41:42Trade was neutral. And that's like a very mind shift, interesting way to think about it as, oh, that's what it would mean to base the dollar dramatically and rebalance the world's trade. The answer to all of this, like I can solve the United States problem in five seconds. Don't be the world reserve currency. What comes with that is an artificially strong currency and artificially strong US assets because people have innate demand for your money just because they need it for trade, they need it for settlement, they need it to repay debts. So the US currency is far too strong. So implied in rebalancing trade and everything that everyone's talking about is gold, 25 ,000, Bitcoin, whatever, 1 million.

1:42:28But it's this idea of what's something that can float in price and absorb all of this liquidity and all of this debasement. It's not treasuries. That's why I think gold got a bid. Just the world's repricing fiat paper claims lower and everything else higher. And Bitcoin will catch its bid eventually. Do you think next bull market, whenever that might be, will have a proper bull market? Yes, I do. Let's go. What? That's a, you know, the next bull market will be a bull market, of course. I mean, a proper bull market. like we used to have. Yeah, I do. I do. I, you know, I think I'm not sure what this Warsh guy is going to do.

1:43:09The market is claiming that he's going to cut now based on - I thought they were still - Excuse me, excuse me. Hike. You're right. I'm sorry. That he's going to hike. And the math just doesn't work. It's very likely politics related of, I think the Fed board is putting a lot of pressure on him according to Trump. and he needs to look independent. But that's very unsustainable for a variety of reasons, and he'll likely blow someone up by doing that. But cutting is not an option either because of what seems to be sticky, fairly persistent inflation. So, yeah, I mean, someone has to lose. The loss has to be realized.

1:43:53Standing still is not an option. Like, one of the most beautiful things about the game of chess is you're not allowed to pass. you know you gotta make your move yeah we call it zugzwang is every move's a bad move you wish you could say I'm not gonna move but you gotta move and so I assume that they'll print the money and keep the empire alive but we'll see thank god bitcoin exists Jack this has been awesome yeah good I'm really genuinely excited to see what you do next Jack's back I'm back I think this is gonna be awesome thank you man yeah thanks dude

1:44:31Thank you.