All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live

26:00Jason Calacanis:Okay, question three. By the way, great questions, guys. Thank you for these. What is the right terminal multiple for talent if the business mix shifts from merchant IPP to contracted infrastructure? Fabulous question. And the addendum here, and what percentage of EBITDA needs to be contracted before the market should re-rate it? So that's a great question. And I only had six minutes to do this, and I think I blew through my time. So I couldn't get into this kind of detail, but it's something I would have really wanted to get into. So whoever asked that, thank you. I just use the 15 multiple because it's sort of a blended multiple between the contracted stuff, which will get a big premium multiple because, you know, it's a bond-like cash flow stream, and bond-like cash flow streams trade at a small spread to treasuries.

26:42And so treasuries, if they're at 5%, should trade it 20 times plus some growth or whatever, plus or minus. The uncontracted stuff, the merchant stuff that has spot market exposure is more volatile, less visible. That should trade at a lower multiple. We can get into the minutiae, but just suffice to say, the more contracts, the higher the multiple, the less, the lower the multiple. Use 15 times as a good rule of thumb, and you'll probably get to the right answer, which is what I used.

27:07Jason Calacanis:That last question from Daniel Scherer. Thank you for that. Dan, thank you. That was great. Oh, great. Thanks.

27:17My name is Oleg Nudelman. I'm the founder and managing director of Ecore One Capital, a San Francisco-based value-oriented biotech fund that I started about 13 years ago. Thanks a lot to the besties for having me here. I'm a huge fan of the pod, like I'm sure all of us are, and I know how challenged Science Corner can get. So I wrote this in a way that even David Sachs would appreciate and pay attention to if he were here. Well, paradoxically, he's taking a nap, which is what he normally does during Science Corners. Exactly. Generally speaking, investing in biotech companies is a horrible idea, sandwiched somewhere between movies, wineries, and SPACs.

28:00In fact, our sector often feels a lot more like a casino than an actual financial market, and most of the tourists who are investing are playing the slots. Of course, at EcoR1, we consider ourselves poker players. In a sector where virtually everyone else is a momentum investor, betting on science, we focus on margin of safety. We're one of the few funds not managed by PhDs or MDs, and that's by design, because we don't want to fall in love with the science. We fall in love with the risk-reward. And like the slide says, we want to monetize other kids' science projects. This is my 25th year investing in biotech.

28:39I started my career with an 11-year stint at another fund and launched EcoR1 in 2013, humble beginnings with$13 million. Since inception, we've 10x to our investors and annualized at 20%. And today we have about$2.5 billion under management. We're lucky to have long-term partners, many of whom are biotech entrepreneurs themselves and have been with us since day one. And we recently reopened for the first time in four years.

29:08today i'm going to tell you about a company that's on the front lines of the war on cancer military terminology has been used when describing treatments for the disease since the early 70s when president nixon signed the national cancer act the warfare analogy is actually perfect the warfare actually is actually perfect for cancer are because both domains are trying to accomplish the exact same thing. Find the enemy, figure out the best weapon to kill them, and have minimal unwanted casualties along the way. First, a quick history of how this war has evolved. Early surgical cancer treatment and radiation was akin to a medieval siege.

29:51Level the entire castle, burn the surrounding village, and hope the enemy was left somewhere in the rubble. Chemo actually evolved from an accidental observation during World War I that mustard gas killed rapidly dividing tissue. Tumor cells divide fast, so doctors would flood a patient's body with chemo and hoped it killed the enemy faster than it killed allies. Unfortunately, hair, skin, gut, and marrow cells also divide quickly, and the poison doesn't discriminate. First-generation targeted therapies were next, like a GPS-guided munition. Instead of carpet bombing every dividing cell, you identify the enemy's command and control center and destroy it.

30:31The problem, like with any weapon, is that the enemy adapts and hides. And in cancer, these are called resistant mutations.

30:42Immunotherapy was first introduced to patients a decade ago. With IO, you don't send in your own troops, you recruit local allies, also known as T-cells, and let them do the fighting for you. Spectacular when it works, but highly dependent on the terrain or the tumor microenvironment. This brings me to the reason we're here today. Modern day radio pharmaceuticals, like a swarm of micro drones, small enough to navigate the bloodstream and find their target by molecular recognition, then detonate a precisely sized warhead with a blast radius of 100 microns or the diameter of a single cell. An autonomous assassination with the force of a bunker buster and minimum collateral damage.

31:20The company I'm going to tell you about today is Actis Oncology. The ticker is AKTS. The company has a billion-dollar market cap, a$500 million enterprise value, and a stockpile of cash which should last them over three years. Long past critical milestones that are coming next year. Actis was started five years ago, but recently went public with a$300 million IPO that was 18 times oversubscribed and backstopped with a$100 million order by Eli Lilly, the folks who bring you all the weight loss drugs. The company has designed a platform that can carry any radioactive payload, is complex enough to go after a variety of targets, and small enough to clear your body with minimal side effects.

32:00The beautiful thing about this approach is that physicians can verify target engagement in early clinical trials with imaging. This significantly de-risks clinical development because you know the drug is getting to the tumor. Another de-risking strategy, for their first few programs, Actis chose known, valid targets like Nectin-4 and B7H3. Nectin-4 is critical in bladder cancer, and the company's second program targeting B7H3 is even more ambitious, expressed on every major solid tumor, including the big three, prostate, colorectal, and lung. Actis started clinical trials last year and is publicly guided to initial clinical data in both of these lead programs in 2027, with Nectin-4 coming as early as Q1, so you won't have to wait long.

32:47If either program shows a signal, the company is likely to get value not only for those programs, but the entire mini-protein platform. This is the holy grail in biotech, getting value simply for the promise of what might come.

33:04What's even more compelling is there's an amazing amount of interest in radiotherapies from pharma. The big ones, including Bristol, Novartis, Bayer, and Lilly, who backstopped the AXIS IPO, have been building radiotherapy capabilities, and they're hungry for assets to add to their pipelines. There's been 15 billion in M &A and deal-making in radiotherapy in the last few years, and we're very much in the early innings. The neatest thing about this modality is that it's very hard to replicate. Generics generally don't traffic in radiopharma, and because the class involves radioisotopes, it's off-limits to China.

33:37So unlike most of biotech, there's a real moat. And now, the obligatory safety warning. Actis is not for everyone. You should consult your biotech analyst before purchasing Actis. Initiating a position may cause increased anxiety or reduced sleep to the night. Serious sometimes drops in stock rates occur in biotech. Immediately after investing, you may experience sudden volatility due to handling risk of competitors. If stock declines are experienced for no final reason, call your broker immediately to increase your position. Remember, Serious safety concerns have risen in other companies' clinical development programs.

34:01While no safety concerns have occurred with any Actis clone program to date, they may in the future. The use of many proteins delivered from a source has not been proven. Actis has no market products and thus no referring revenue. Delusion for equity offerings may occur. In the event of a secondary offering, immediately schedule a call with Actis management team to discuss placing an order.

34:22It's notoriously challenging to value biotech companies because when you risk adjust and discount back, you pretty quickly get to zero. For earlier stage opportunities like this, we like to triangulate. We think Actis could be worth$10 billion or$200 per share if even one of their programs makes it to market. And in this case, you have a lot of outs. I'm not familiar with why radioisotopes are off limits to China. So in this particular case, Actis' radioisotope payload is Actinium. And Actinium is manufactured from radium-233, which was used in our own nuclear programs in the U.S. in the 50s and 60s.

35:03So it's a waste product from there. So actinium is not even available in other countries like China because they had a completely different, their own program was completely different with enriched uranium and plutonium. But the risk for a lot of biotech in China replication came about that Amgen-Sanofi Supreme Court case, didn't it? Where you could make a small, because it basically said all patents are composition of matter patents. So you could change one amino acid, get around the patent. Right. China's basically done that with a lot of biologics that are patented in the US and Europe. They just rip them off and then you attach the radio emitting radio isotope to the molecule and you can kind of chase it.

35:42That's kind of why a lot of biotech's been depressed. Is that not true? Yeah, so with with with radio isotopes again because you have to admit you have to have a manufacturing supply that you have to source locally in the US We haven't seen any competition coming from China at all. And if they have a successful readout, though, would it not be like the case that someone in China would say, hey, let's go get some of the necessary radioisotopes and... I'm sure they can do it for the Chinese market, but in terms of then transferring that over here, we haven't seen it or any wind of it at all. And so then my last question, I'm sorry for monopolizing, why do you think the markets discounted the value so much since the IPO?

36:24Oh, gosh. Given the return in biotech valuation. It's pretty classic biotech. So it's traded flat since the IPO. Biotech investors are so insanely short-term oriented that even though we're now, call it eight or nine months from data, that's still way too long. And so our expectation is that folks will start accumulating this in the second half in anticipation of the data coming in the first quarter. Gavin, you had a question? Yeah, sure. So in the distant past, I ran a biopharmaceutical fund. And, you know, it's a very hard job. Congratulations on those numbers. But I ran that fund right after the human genome had been sequenced.

37:01And there was an expectation that the sequencing of the genome was going to lead to this explosion in therapies, personalized medicines, et cetera, et cetera. and I don't think broadly speaking we've made as much progress over the last 25 years as maybe people thought in the early 2000s and my hypothesis is that the genome is too big of a problem space for the human mind or software written by humans and AI is going to unlock a lot of kind of revolutionary therapies. So my question to you I will just admit as a selfish question it is not about your stock pitch which was great it's what do you think the odds are that in the lifetimes of everyone in this room the average human lifespan in a developed country extends well past 100 to 125 150 I would take the over on that in no small part because we already have one of the best longevity drugs out there and folks don't even realize it in the glip ones and the obesity drugs so one of the only things that's ever been shown in actual actual data to extend life is caloric restriction and that's literally what all the obesity drugs do.

38:07So I'm sure half the people in this room are on one of them and that's just the beginning because it's trained people that you can inject yourself with something and have healthy living through pharmaceuticals. So I think that's only going to continue.

38:19Jason Calacanis:Oh, I got two questions from the audience. First one, as the launch costs per kilogram continue to fall, is there a credible pathway to use space and microgravity as a therapeutic variable given that cancer cells appear to behave differently in low gravity environments? That is a great question that's probably not applicable to this. Okay. And then the second question, what would be a technological breakthrough that could disrupt precision radiotherapy as a result of AI at scale to drug development and pre-cancer screening? Yeah, another awesome question. There's a small skunks work project within Actis AI project.

38:57So with all these biotech companies, they have their little proprietary data sets that they hope to leverage with various insights. So a company like this, with their mini proteins and everything else they're trying to accomplish, they have their own little tiny group of PhD data scientist nerds who are seeing if they can leverage that in a pretty decent way. So it's been really hard to get CAR T in solid tumors. Is it the case that these kind of personalized peptide-based immunotherapies are showing some efficacy in some solid tumors and it's that space that's going to expand and kind of intersect here?

39:33What's most promising that I think a lot of folks have probably heard of is a new drug for pancreatic cancer from a company called RevMed with just another targeted therapy. So for now, there's not a huge amount of progress from peptides in this space. And have you looked at D-proteins before? These kind of right-handed proteins that seem to be able to penetrate solid tumors? Well, so one of the neat things about these mini-proteins is they're hopefully of the right size to be able to deliver their payload inside of the tumors.

40:01Jason Calacanis:Incredible. Oleg, thank you. Thank you. Thanks.

40:09Jason Calacanis:By the way, somebody just YOLO'd into the stock while Oleg was on stage. It's up 6%. Don't do that while we're all trying to buy as well, please. Come on. Morning, everyone. My name is Kyle Simani. Thank you for being with us at the All in Liquidity today. Thanks to the besties for organizing. Today, we're going to be talking about a little known asset, a little crypto asset called GeoNet, which is building the rails for AI. So let's jump in. Quick bit about me. I founded a firm called Multicoin Capital about eight and a half years ago. I stepped down a few months ago. And in my time there, I was probably most well known for leading all three rounds of investment in Solana prior to Solana's network launch in 2020.

40:49I've been deep in the crypto space for a very long time. And I thought this would be a very natural forum to talk about a very interesting investment at the intersection of crypto and AI. Also, big shout out to David Sachs. Unfortunately, he's not here, but David did seed multi-coin back in the day. So thank you, David, for believing in me very early. All right, let's get into GeoNet. So the way to understand GeoNet first is to look at GPS. Probably everyone in this room has been in the situation on the left where you're using your phone and your phone is in the wrong spot, facing the wrong way.

41:22Right here, you can see this guy, it looks like he's facing a wall according to his phone. GeoNet, it fundamentally is a new, it uses a technology called RTK, or real-time kinematics, where you can localize your location down to about two centimeters. For context, GPS, roughly the precision is about two meters. So you're getting about 100x accuracy for very precise geolocation. As you can imagine, any form of kind of robotics can make use of RTK, drones being the very obvious example. I'll touch on a few more just in a couple minutes here. Today, GeoNet is the world's largest RTK network in the world, and it's also the fastest growing.

42:01The three companies you see on the left here, Trimble, Hexagon, and TopCon, have all been building RTK networks in some form or fashion for, call it, 20 to 30 years. All of them combined have roughly 12 ,000 base stations deployed around the world. GeoNet was founded in 2021, began building out the network in 2022, and today they are roughly twice the size of the next three guys combined. Today, the GeoNet is live in 150 countries around the world, more than 11 ,000 cities, and covers roughly 80 % of the global population, excluding some sanctioned countries. So this thing is really growing quickly.

42:33You might say, how did these guys build this network so fast? And the key is really this decentralized crypto model. So here we're looking at literally a photo of a GeoNet base station on the roof of someone's house. The global GeoNet network, those 22 ,000 nodes, are not being built and deployed by someone the one that looks like AT &T or Verizon, those base stations are being deployed by any random guy or hobbyist or professional or small business owner who wants to make some extra money. You can go on the GeoNet's website today, you can buy one of these base stations, they're a few hundred bucks, you put it on your roof of your house or your small business, it broadcasts radio waves, you make money.

43:08You actually get paid in Geo tokens, which is the really cool part about this incentive system to bootstrap this thing to get it off the ground. So the GeoNet network started about four years ago doing this today it's now the largest fastest growing in the world by a pretty wide margin if you want a sense of scale uh here we're looking at their coverage in the united states obviously every single major metro is covered but even if you look at most of the rural parts of the country you're covering actually the vast majority of even the rural areas let's talk about some other customers and use cases for this we'll start with agriculture first um the usda actually launched a couple years ago a program to encourage farmers and ranchers to use precise ag technologies including RTK networks.

43:46Today actually the USDA is now actually subsidizing many farmers and ranchers all over the country to adopt high precision ag, most of which is powered by GeoNet. Getting into some specific examples of that, here we're looking at what's called a robotic mule. This is made by a company called Burrow. Obviously this is transporting some grapes, you could put anything on this. It has pretty obvious application for almost any farm or ranch you can imagine. With the advent in computer vision, CPUs, batteries, all the other AI stuff, these things are growing like hotcakes. All of them are going to be powered by GeoNet or something like it.

44:19Here we're looking at John Deere. They have a new service that they rolled out recently called Global Unmanned Spraying Systems or GUS. These things drive around. They literally spray plants with pesticides and other things like that. I did actually confirm this morning there are wineries here in Napa that are actually using John Deere GUS vehicles. That was pretty cool. So if you have some wine tonight, maybe it was powered by by Gus, which is powered by GeoNet. Obviously autonomous vehicles has a pretty obvious application for this. TomTom is one of GeoNet's customers. TomTom is a supplier to basically every AV program in the world, excluding maybe a couple.

44:56And today TomTom is using GeoNet's data to update their maps to get them more accurate and precise as they need to cover every square inch basically around the planet. One of my favorite use cases are kind of the next wave of consumer robotics, which are getting a lot of hype these days. I think the most obvious one are robotic lawnmowers. I don't think anyone loves to mow their lawn. Robotic lawnmowers are now actually rolling out at pretty good scale. They're estimated they're going to sell one million robotic lawnmowers this year, made by companies like Yarbo, Sunseeker, and others. All of those guys are all powered by GeoNet.

45:29Next up, let's get to drones. The world's largest drone manufacturer, DJI, is a GeoNet customer. It's not in all of their models, but it is in a lot of their models. And so obviously, DJI is sending a ton of traffic now over GeoNet. In the coming months and years, as DJI winds down in the US, and you have a new wave of American drone manufacturers pop up, I'm gonna venture to guess that most, if not all of them are gonna end up on the GeoNet network as well. The GeoNet team is based in the US, has deep roots here. What I love about GeoNet is it's a really obvious network effects business. This thing looks like a natural telecom, right?

46:04You have base stations kind of all over the world. You gotta cover the whole planet. telecoms naturally form monopolies historically. I think the same is likely to be true here. Today, GeoNet is the world's largest and fastest growing network with also the lowest cost structure by a very wide margin because of this decentralized nature where people just put these things on top of their house. In terms of where the business at, the business just crossed about$11 million in annualized run rate a few days ago. And it's growing more than three X year over year. I think it's gonna probably more than triple over the next 12 months.

46:34What's really cool about GeoNet is how capital efficient it is and how they're actually returning capital to token holders. So today the GeoNet network is taking off that 11 million in revenue, roughly 80 % of it is being used to make open market purchases of Geo tokens. And this is all visible on the Solana blockchain. They have all the addresses are published and stuff. So it's all verifiable in real time. That means$8.8 million right now per year is going into buying GeoNet tokens on the open market. What's amazing is that last 20 % is they're covering all their R &D costs and scaling out now their business development team.

47:08With a business like this, of course, it's a pretty small network of customers. The guys who work at John Deere know the guys who work at DGI, who know the guys who work at TomTom. And so this thing is now growing virally amongst this kind of core community of customers. And as you can imagine, with customers who sign up for a service like this, they tend to ramp up their usage of that service over time. So once someone starts rolling out GeoNet, in the first year, they're usually spending about$60 ,000 per year. After two years though, they're usually spending about$170 ,000 per year. So the average GeoNet customer is growing their revenue with GeoNet about 3x in that second year.

47:42Obviously then we look at just their customers they've signed up in the last two years. You can see they 5x their customer base last year. Those are net new customers. So applying some pretty simple math here, you can see they have a very clear path to more than 3x this year as this thing ramps up. Just to wrap things up summary, GeoNet is the world's largest RTK network growing the fastest. It has really obvious network effects and is likely to be a very natural monopoly. Growing 3x year over year with a bunch of flagship customers and brands that you all know. Obviously we have this huge physical AI tailwind behind us now.

48:11Robotics and all the other amazing stuff happening. And they're returning capital to shareholders. The token does trade on the Solana blockchain. If you want to buy it trades 24-7. The ticker is GEOD. So if you want to actually get some Geo tokens, I encourage you to sign up for a crypto wallet, a Solana wallet, and you can go ahead and buy Geo tokens from there. And with that, I think we are ready for some Q &A. Awesome. What's the market cap? Oh, sorry. It's trading about 150 million on a fully diluted basis. If you were to go look at any of the crypto price websites like Coin.co or CoinMarketCap, they're going to show you something like 60 or 70 million.

48:48That's because not all of the tokens are floating yet, but the fully diluted number is about 150. Is there a corporation behind it? Or is this just like a project in the Cayman Islands in Panama with a board that nobody knows who's on it? Tell us about governance. So the GeoNet team is a U.S.-based corporation. There are four teams in San Francisco. The CEO's name is Mike Horton. Really, really good guy. He's been building in this kind of IoT smart device space for a while. Explain the relationship between the corporate entity and the token, and which one should we own. You should own the token.

49:21I own a lot of the token. as you might imagine, I don't know any of the equity. The relationship is GeoNet, the company is facing John Deere, DJI, all these companies, and they have a contractual relationship with the GeoNet Foundation to use 80 % of their revenues to buy tokens off the open market. And that's all - Has that corporation raised venture capital or anything? Yes, my prior company, Multipoint, actually led around in GeoNet previously.

49:47Jason Calacanis:Okay, Kyle, I have many questions from the audience, so bear with me. Question one. Do you like Helium as much, which is GeoNet for 5G signal? Yes, I actually led multicoins investment in Helium six or seven years ago. And I continue to be a very big long-term believer. They actually had big news go out this morning. But yeah, I'm a big Helium fan. Question two. There's a long list of deep-in projects that have failed because people just don't value the token rewards. Why is this any different? I mean, they're returning capital to shareholders. This thing is, you know, returning$8.8 million to shareholders.

50:19It's trading at$150 million. valuation, and it's going to grow 3x this year. It's an unbelievably cheap asset. It's just people aren't paying attention because it's crypto bear market right now. Okay, from Sam. Can I just understand, it's a securitized interest in the cash flows from the customers? Effectively, yes. It is a revenue. It is a revenue share token. Correct. 80%. Okay.

50:41Jason Calacanis:So the more John Deere pays GeoNet the company, the more you basically deprecate the tokens which should cause the token. They're buying tokens of the open market, correct. Yes. Okay, from Sam, what accrues value? The equity or the token? We just covered that. How does the value accrual mechanisms square or not with current securities laws or what's contemplated in the Clarity Act? Yeah. So the one answer to your question is the tokens are the ones accruing value because they're taking 80 % and buying. The other 20 % is obviously funding operations. They have engineers, salespeople, all that stuff.

51:13So that's all there and being funded. In terms of securities laws, the Clarity Act passing is certainly very good for GeoNet. I'm not a lawyer, so I'm not going to tell you that it passes the bars set in the Clarity Act, but I can tell you I'm an optimist and I've been very involved in the Clarity Act and I'm not too worried about it. Okay, can I ask about the business just real quick? So John Deere, I know this space somewhat well. I used to manage a company called Precision Planting in Agriculture. And John Deere makes their own RTK systems. So when you like run a piece of equipment that relies on RTK, you're buying in the construction industry Topcon or Leica or Trimble or John Deere and you install the RTK base stations and you run your equipment.

51:56Why would John Deere and others want to rely on this system as a different, like why is it better than like the systems that they're already using? It wasn't quite clear to me. I mean, CapEx versus OpEx, right? Like these networks are all over the world now. they're running at very low cost. GeoNet is probably a third to a quarter the price than buying up your own capex and doing it, and it's just available everywhere. So now it just reduces the sales cycle time for John Deere when they just say, buy the tractor, it's good. There's another big push right now for microsats to be an alternative to GPS in a way that they can actually provide sub-centimeter resolution, effectively replacing both GPS and RTK using a mesh network from SpaceX launched or actually SpaceX.

52:43I don't know if SpaceX has looked at doing this, but I know that there is a very well-funded company that is trying to put up microsats to basically replace GPS and RTK. Doesn't that ultimately kind of wash out the need to have all these Earth-based base stations? There's no chance they can compete on cost because just sending things to space, satellites, that's so, I mean, these GeoNet base stations are a few hundred bucks. Like, you're just not going to compete on cost with GeoNet. You don't need to work at base.

53:10Jason Calacanis:Do you think that this is a viable replacement at scale and saturation for GPS itself? No. GPS is definitely very different. Because, yes, LA is different. You've got to have ubiquity for GPS, for GPS alternative, which is why you have to have the satellites everywhere. You've got to have enough satellites. But if you get enough satellites, you can actually get to RTK precision, and you don't need to have the big expensive GPS. You'd have a hybrid situation where you have a bunch of Geo and Leo plus a bunch of base stations all over the place. That hybrid situation probably. You could actually get the Leo alone can replace all of the Geo stuff.

53:46Right. That's the goal. And then if you get enough of them, which SpaceX unlocks.

53:51Jason Calacanis:And Kyle, what about like other tokens when you think about other compute tasks like work to be done, for example? there's a bunch of tokens that have emerged in distributed training. How did you hone in on this and exclude the others? I mean, I mean, you prefer this over that. I mean, I met the GeoNet founder years ago. He pitched us and I've gotten to know him and followed it. The distributed training stuff, there's a whole bunch of people trying it. I'm pretty skeptical. I don't think any of it's going to work. The distributed inference stuff is possible, although it has not worked as well as we would have hoped.

54:23I did put some money behind that a few years ago. It's working, but not A+. One last thing, actually, David, on your prior question, I want to highlight is also energy use. Going to space just consumes way more energy than going to a base station that's on the ground. And so, yeah, for a tractor, maybe that doesn't matter. But for a drone or for any other battery-sensitive application, ground is always going to be the preferred solution.

54:45Jason Calacanis:Super interesting. Well done. Wow, thank you. Thank you so much. That was super interesting. Thanks, guys. Before we vote, Chamath, give your feedback. Here's what I like. I apply the Stan Druckenmiller school of invest and investigate. I really believe in it. Yes. If you don't have any skin in the game, you don't care. And this is the kind of stuff that I love. I love hearing ideas like this. I love all four. My difference is in sizing. So, you know, there's certain asymmetric alpha that each one of these exhibits. And then there's very different downside risk for each of them. And then there's also liquidity issues.

55:20Jason Calacanis:So, for example, like I love Kyle's idea. The problem is I could not get enough working for me where. so I don't even think I could get a million dollars in today. To scale in, it would move the market. So I'd have to probably, I'd be like 10, 20, 30 ,000 and then maybe start to buy into it. Talon, I think that you could absorb tens of millions and people wouldn't bite an eyelash. The biotech company, the issue there is that I think that there is, as you said, Freberg, this discontinuous illiquidity, zero risk, but then there's the 10x upside. so there's just like huge wired alpha Lily will bid for it and then MGM I think is just so I think MGM and Talon are the ones you can have huge sizing in and then the other ones I think you have a piece because they're like lottery tickets I think your point on MGM okay wait hold on let me just review so company number one was MGM and that was Aaron and Resorts okay company number two Talon Talon Energy company number three Actis Actis Therapy and then and GeodeNet, not company, but I guess token, company number four, GeodeNet.

56:31Jason Calacanis:And you're buying the token, not the company. Do you think the, maybe for you too, Gavin, like the upside - But Gavin, you rank them. Well, no, even before you rank, just tell us what you think of the format and then assess the companies. We'll do ranking at the end. We're gonna do 4, 3, 2, 1 on stage, but give me your general ideas about the pitches, what you liked, what you didn't. I thought the pitches were great. I thought the format was amazing. I would for sure expand it next year. There are platforms that you guys could have an all-in basket or ETF that people could trade in. So, like, maybe that's something.

57:08Will you do it next year? Will I pitch next year? Yeah. J-Cal, I'll do anything. He's locked.

57:16Jason Calacanis:Actually, here's what I would ask, Gavin, to put you on the spot. Next year, I think we would all learn and benefit if you would do silicon and memory super cycle. Sure. Would you be willing to do that for us? I'll do it. Sign me up. Perfect. Sign me up. Thank you. So keep going. Well, no, as far as the pitches, I do think it's important to disaggregate what was a really great entertaining pitch versus what I think is a really good risk reward. I thought Oleg and Kyle did a great job with the pitches, but I'm not a healthcare investor, nor am I a crypto investor. I thoroughly enjoyed the presentations.

57:56I actually thought Geonet was very interesting. I'm happy to learn from Oleg that I might lift well into my 100s. That was good news for me and everybody in the room. I enjoyed all the military terminology and analogies.

58:09Jason Calacanis:Yeah, that was really great, huh? That was great. Really great. I do think from a pure risk reward perspective, I thought MGM was the best. Your downside is really capped because of the Barry Diller bid. And then you have Japan and Dubai as, I think, very valuable future sources of value. And I do think talent is also a very compelling risk award. I just think everything in AI is going to need to grapple with increasing regulatory risk, which we talked about last time that I was on the pod with you guys. And I don't know how to dimensionalize that. and, you know, I've been... Like the big negative externality for talent is nothing to do with talent.

58:52Nothing to do with talent.

58:53Jason Calacanis:It's like something over the top from the US government, caps prices, something, something. Yeah, you have... Nationalizes the lab. You have a change in administration. You have a change in Congress. There's laws that are passed that I think make it hard for terrestrial compute, which changes the utilities supply demand. But I actually think outside of that, talent was super compelling. So you got MGM, you got talent. Now do the other two. I thought they were both great pitches. Can I tie them for third? Well, don't even give the score. Just any feedback on those two ideas, or those are just a little bit lottery ticket for you?

59:27No, I thought Actis was very compelling. They're trying to do something different. As Oleg said, if you ever get a biotech company that can become a platform, and they have a mechanism, whether it's of drugging, whether it's targeting, if you have something that is broadly applicable, that is when you can get these really, really big$100 billion plus outcomes in biotech, which are rare. So I thought that part of Actos was super compelling. You don't play crypto. I don't play crypto, but I thought the entire GeoNet discussion was fascinating. Is there anything that would get you off the bench and make you jump into the crypto game?

1:00:10or it's just your why are you not playing the crypto game? I feel about crypto exactly the way I do about snowboarding. Okay. I'm not a very good athlete. I've spent a lifetime learning how to ski and I'm okay. And just the idea of getting on a snowboard, having, you know, thousands of hours of ski instruction. You don't want the pain for the game. Yes. and I have 25 years of lessons, learnings, pain, scars from investing in equities and public securities. And just crypto, it's a little bit like snowboarding for me, but like, you know, everybody who wants to snowboard, that's great. Everybody wants to do crypto, that's great.

1:00:54Just please don't go sideways down the mountain and ruin the powder, David. Your assessment of MGM talent. Okay, so I think MGM, I look at the kind of return upside, the downside and the timeline. MGM's like probably a 3x. I think it's also missing this point that I've heard a lot about on you can actually upgrade the monetization on these Vegas properties. We were talking to a friend of ours in Vegas. They're making a million bucks a day in incremental EBITDA every day that they have a show at the sphere at the Venetian Hotel, which is an unbelievable statistic, which tells you that when you have the entertainment draw, the gambling revenue just flies.

1:01:34And so Barry Diller, I have heard separately, has been spending a lot of time on trying to reinvent the entertainment at these properties and thinks he has an idea on how to do it, which will cause the gambling revenue to fly. So I think even if you discount the upside on these new locations, there's probably a lot of work to be done. And I do like the floor on the bid. And then you've got to call it 3x in two years, even if this bid goes nowhere and they keep the thing running. And they're like, we're going to reject the bid and keep running independently. Talon is maybe 3x upside, 5x upside, but it's eight years out.

1:02:07And I think one of the other challenges with Talon that I would kind of use as a valuation metric is I think it's more interest rate sensitive than MGM is, because the power purchase agreements really are where a lot of the revenue comes from. So you're going to get a discount rate that's a function of where interest rates are sitting. So I think if interest rates shoot up, which some might argue there's risk there, you actually get margin compression from that 15x outlook that he has for Talon. So that would be my kind of downside scenario on Talon in the time ahead. And Actis, I do worry, because I'm an investor in a company that's got a D protein conjugate that shows really strong efficacy into getting solid tumors.

1:02:45I think that there are new modalities for therapeutics for solid tumors that are being discussed that may kind of put this at risk. I think the China risk is legit because I've seen it across the board in biotech. Everything gets ripped off and people go to China. But they could have a hit and Lilly could bid on it in six months if they actually get a good readout. So there's certainly upside, but the downside is probably 50%, 75 % if they get a bad readout or China or some new modality comes out. So I think the ranking is probably NGM, Talon, Actis. And then for me, the GeoNet piece, I just think the space thing is likely the path that's going to replace all RTK and all GPS in the next decade.

1:03:23It's an inevitable piggyback on systems that are already going up. All right, great. So I think I've got everybody. For me, I put them into two buckets. I think AKTS and GOD, those are like lottery tickets, could be crazy returns. But, you know, there's a big probability of a zero there if they don't. you know, actually work. And then MGM and Talent, obviously got the downside protection. And those feel like people will always gamble and leave the lights on. So I kind of like both of those. I put 200K into each in real time. I think gamble and leave the lights on. So that's just like my, I don't have a public vehicle.

1:04:00Jason Calacanis:Did you actually buy? I'm just day trading. I bought half of his action. I don't have a Robinhood account. I have to call my office. So I was like, just I'll take half of it. Stoos you lose, buddy. I didn't see you with your thumbs. I'm up 7 % across the portfolio, so I don't think I can include you here. I waited the three in the order I said. Anyway, I'll just give mine really quick. I will go MGM, Talon, G-O-D, A-K-T-S. Gavin's only going to make$90 trillion. Let's bring our four pitchers out. Please get the two men hugging statue. Wait, wait, no, before you announce it. I need the extremely alpha male heterosexual trophy.

1:04:46The all-in heterosexual alpha male trophy, please. And I need our four pitchers to come on stage. It makes it more exciting. It makes it uncomfortable when they show the five people for best actor. Yeah. Yes. Da-da. Da-da. They all got tequila. You put those on the table. but wait where's my award we're doing full marketing here oh the award you guys have the award please bring me the extremely heterosexual alpha male award you'll see why when i show you the award pass me this side over the over all right bring me that award let me show you how we 3d model okay no one wants to see this look at this this is two men uncomfortably hugging and the way we did this see it that's the bestie work come here freeberg i'm not doing it with you come Come on, Freeberg.

1:05:35You do it tomorrow. Okay, fine. He's extremely comfortable. That's David and I. It's David and you, but let's show them how we modeled this. We just did a long. This is uncomfortable, and we hold it for five extra seconds.

1:05:47Jason Calacanis:At two minutes, you get the release of OxyCocin. There it is. Okay. So, gentlemen, this is it. Do you guys have the results? Go ahead. Audience award. Okay, right. Audience award. So, based on 150 votes from the audience, do I just go four to one? Four to one. Four to one is more exciting. Okay. Fourth place with 5 % of the vote was Kyle Simani. Okay. Well done. On the board. A very close second place. No, third. Third place with 21 % of the vote, Oleg. Oleg. Oh, boy. We're closing in here, guys. Here we go. Okay. Here we go. And with 50, 50, 5-0 percent of the vote. Who's number two? I'm going to go to, no, you say number one now.

1:06:33Jason Calacanis:Okay. Okay. Oh, okay. Well, okay, sorry. Yeah, you're right. With 24 % of the vote in second place, Aaron Cowan for MGM. Number one with 50 % of the vote, Dan Dreyfus. Hey. Wow, unbelievable. Give it up. Nicely done. Now the bestie vote. Hold on before we do the bestie. How do you feel right now having won this? Pass him the award. You guys look so uncomfortable. There's no space. But pass him his award for a second. Let him hold it. Give it Academy Awards. Thank everybody how you got to this place. Say a few words. I got my award. I got my tequila. Thank you. All right. Well done. Okay. Now, pass the award.

1:07:19Jason Calacanis:4, 3, 2, 1. It's relatively similar here. Fourth place was Kyle Simani. Okay. Third place was Oleg. Second place, Dan Dreyfus. first place, Aaron Cohen. Big upset. Flip the audience vote. There you go. Alright, so MGM wins. Alright. Thanks, guys. This was amazing. Alright, thank you all for participating. Thank you very much for coming, everybody. Thank you so much for coming, and we'll see you at a minute. I'm going all in.

1:07:52I'm going all in.