Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections

26:19I think we're at least your reports, yeah. Well, I think we're all converging on the same realization, which is you can't spend $1 .00 million and only have toy apps to show for it. So I think we've all been amazed by these AI demos. I think the four of us have talked pretty incessantly about it now for 18 plus months ever since we saw the first open AI demos. So that's great. And the underlying technology, I think, is really important. But it's also important to acknowledge that the underlying technology has enormous gaps. gaps. There's gaps in the quality of the products that can be created to not have hallucinations.

27:01Those gaps are too large right now for them to be used reliably in production settings unless you have a very defined scope. If you have a defined scope though, the implementation costs are not nearly what needs the level of spend to support. So there's just a big mismatch. Second is that we have a huge problem within video and I'll just kind of say the quiet part allowed, which is you can't spend this kind of money to have technology lock -in to one hardware vendor. And that makes no sense. And what you're seeing now is that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, AMD, Intel, a plethora of startups, GROC, everybody trying to make now different hardware solutions.

27:44The problem though that that creates is that we have this massive lock -in right now because The code is littered with all these Nvidia -specific ways of implementing access to GPUs. That's not sustainable. So we're in a bit of an existential thrash. And I think the only way that we're going to get around this is to do a little bit of a reset. And I think that's going to touch a lot of startups that have already taken down way too much money at really insane valuations. Part of that was just because we needed, I guess, the market wanted a place to believe Even again, after the crypto meltdown and after all of the other SaaS meltdown and all of the other stuff that we've gone through.

28:25So, yeah, I think that we are in a bit of a reckoning right now. It's going to be a complicated couple of quarters at a minimum and probably a complicated year to sort out who's actually real. It's interesting psychological phenomenon there, Shreveberg. The capital allocators, the tech industry, the entrepreneurs, they want to believe in something and the previous paradigm shifts were ending. And here we go, a new paradigm shift. Perhaps we're such an efficient capitalistic machine now that we almost like processed stuff super quickly in some ways, Reberg. We deploy massive capital. We try to solve huge problems.

29:04I mean, and then maybe we hit the reckoning in the trowel of despair that we talked about many times, So innovators dilemma, you know crossing the chasm kind of style. So what are your thoughts on from a point there or any other point you might have? There's a cold hard truth here. Okay. Which is there is a ton of capital that was raised during the COVID bubble era and the Zerp era that needed a place to go. And a lot of the traditional businesses, traditional business models, traditional technology sense, SaaS and a lot of the biotech stuff, it all became uninvestable. Then there's a lot of money in the public markets that was sitting on the sidelines, that was sitting in treasuries and so on.

29:49So every dollar is looking for growth and there's a lot of dollars still sitting around out there from the Zerp era and coming into this kind of post -Zerp era, looking for a place for growth. And there is very little growth as we talked about with the S &P 493, not being very performative with respect to growth and revenue and having great outlook for the next five years. So then when there is a glimmer of upside, there's a glimmer of opportunity, even if it's just painting a picture of a growth story, all the capital drives into it. And we've all heard stories about the Series A startups in AI getting bit up to a hundred million dollar valuation.

30:25And I've seen a couple of these where people have pitched me things on like protein modeling AI startups and it's literally like two guys from Meta and open AI that left and started this company and they get they raised 30 on a 120 -perty or something and it's just two guys building a model And that's because that capital needs to find a place where I can tell itself a growth story And so I think that we're still dealing with the the capital hangover from ZERP and the fact that there's a Dirt of areas to invest for real growth that has allowed the AI bubble to kind of grow as quickly as it has And now, as Timark points out, we are kind of rationalizing that back.

30:59And I do think that there's going to be a reset. Now, I'll also say that the Goldman report, which I read and some of the other analyses that have been done, I think there was some commentary or some analysis that, hey, cost to me six times as much as having an analyst do this work. Like the energy cost of the AI is still so high, the actual performance of the model is not good. But what that fails to write, it's right and wrong. It's right in the sense that, yes, it is more expensive today. and the return on investment is not there today. It's wrong in that it ignores the performative model improvements that we're seeing in nearly any metric over the past couple of months.

31:33Every few months, as we know, we see new models, new improvements, new architectures, new ways of leveraging the chips to actually drive a lower token cost to drive lower energy cost per answer, lower energy cost per run. And so every metric that matters is improving. So if you fast forward another 24, 36 months, I do think that there's a great reason to be optimistic that there's gonna be extraordinary ROI based on the infrastructure that's being built. It's a question of, are you gonna get payback before the next cycle of infrastructure needs to be made and everything comes back in? We saw this during the dot -com boom where a lot of people built that data centers and by the time they were actually able to make money on those data centers, it was like, hey, all the new telco equipment, all the new servers need to be put in and everything got written off.

32:15So there is a big capex kind of question mark here, but I do think that the fundamental economics of AI will be proven over the next couple of quarters. Yeah, I mean, I don't I don't think it's going to be the next couple quarters quite honestly I do think in the next couple of decades and in the next couple of years what I would hope ambitiously is that there are a few really useful proofpoints where companies are making revenue solving very specific defined problems Where quite honestly you're taking workloads of X and making it X over 10 right and I think that that's possible But I think this generalized idea that all of this spend is going to have a good or why I think is pretty wishful thinking.

32:56It's actually one of maybe giving sure thoughts here. Bubble, do we work our way out of it? Are we overspending? Is this all a manifest destiny? If you build it, they will come kind of situation. We throw all this capital there. We make a lot of progress on these projects and something comes out the other end as messy as it is. I think that's what's likely to happen. I'm much more bullish than you guys about this investment that's being made. Remember that when the internet got started in 90s, it was via dial -up. I mean, you literally had to have a modem and you would dial up the internet and it was incredibly slow.

33:30Photo sharing didn't even work, so social networking wasn't possible. And basically what happened next was that the telecom company spent a ton of money building out broadband. And people started upgrading to broadband. Then we had the dot -com crash. Everyone thought that telecom companies had wasted billions of dollars investing in all this broadband infrastructure. And it turned out that no, they were right to do that. It just took a while for that to get used. And this is a pretty common pattern with technological revolutions is that you can have a bubble in the short term, but then it gets justified in the mid to long term.

34:09that build out of the railroads in the United States. Another example of this, we had huge railroad bubbles, but it turned out that that investment was all worthwhile. So I tend to think this was gonna happen with AI. I mean, I do think that there's already enough, let's call it realness to the applications. I mean, I'll give you three examples. Number one, open AI. I mean, open AI is effectively semantic search, right? It's a different kind of search engine where it understands the question you're asking and gives you an answer instead of blue links. And they're already at, was it? We talked about this previously, 3 .4 billion in revenue.

34:46Consumer at 20 bucks and enterprise at like 30 bucks a month. And then there's also the API. Yeah, so you could 10x already. I mean, this is coming as only a been around for two years with a product on the market and it's doubling year over year. So that's just example number one, right? I mean, what's the most valuable application on the internet until now? It's been Google, right? And search. Search. And so you have a different kind of search now that I'm not saying it's a one for one replacement. It's also a new market. But my point is just you already have a very powerful application in the form of this semantic search, which OpenAI is currently dominating.

35:20The second one I think will be when Apple comes out with iPhone 16, you know, with LLM powered Siri, assuming they do a decent job with that, it's going to lead to a huge upgrade cycle. I mean, I'm still on an iPhone 13 because I haven't seen a reason to upgrade. I will definitely upgrade to the iPhone 16. Snap upgrade. Snap upgrade for that, assuming that they roll their own LLM and use that power series and don't give my data to a third party LLM. And there's been mixed reports about that. You don't trust Sam Altman with your iPhone back up? I don't want Apple sharing any of my data, which they obtained by being the operating system with a third party LLM.

36:01But a bunch of viewers of the show posted in the comments that I had made a mistake on this and that Apple was rolling its own LLM to power Siri and they would only go to OpenAI. During a set. If their own LLM can't do it for some reason, I'm just going to turn that feature off, but in any event. So assuming Apple gets that right, everyone's going to upgrade their iPhones. The third app is, look, you know, we're using LLMs to power glue. And the results aren't always consistently awesome. I would say the results are kind of like a B -plus right now, but you do get some really great results, you know, because the strong start for you to get.

36:45It's a strong start. Yeah. And, you know, in a year or so, we're going to be at the next gen version of all the models you're going to be at. I'm sure, you know, Chattachypt5 will be out and then the next version of Clawed and so forth. At that point, it's going to be an A+. I got to tell you, I've been using Clawed and Chattachypt40 and it is extraordinary how fast they fixed going to the web to get information. It used to be arduous and painful to get updated information. And so I was like, hey, get me all of these. I think I've told this story previously here on this week's startups, but I was talking about like I was doing research on salaries.

37:24And I said, just cram your all the information from the last door, indeed, high salary, low salary, average salary. These two different cities put it in a table and give me the links. And it did it. And I was like, that's like a college education educated person's job for 40 bucks an hour call it, whatever it is, a 16, 70, $80 ,000 a year person. So I'm in the bullish gap with you, Saks. I think it's being overbelts, sure. But I think we're going to see a tipping point next year where a lot of labor arbitrage occurs. And what I mean by that is, like, people are figuring out ways to cut jobs or have one person do three jobs.

38:02And I'm seeing it across all the startups we invest in, I'm seeing it with a theme of the company we invested and I mentioned earlier. And I'm really interested in robotics now too. I think there's going to be some incredible gains with optimists and some of the other robots that are occurring. And those things are only going to cost 20 grand. So this is going to be pretty interesting. Yeah, look, I think the low -hanging fruit application wise in the enterprise is chat with a knowledge base, chat with your knowledge bases. That's what people want, right? And we're still in the early stages of being able to connect your enterprise data to an LLM in a safe, compliant way.

38:40That's where a lot of activity is happening right now. And the compliant part means you're working in the tech for the marketing group and you don't search the HR departments data. Guys, let me ask you just a general question, though. OK. Like we've spent a trillion dollars. Let's say that there's forward purchasing commits for, let's be generous and say only half that number. So now there's 1 .5 trillion. So we're $1 .5 billion in the j -curve. How much total revenue does the entire AI economy that's established today need to generate to pay that back plus some reasonable rate of return? Revenue at a fair multiple.

39:19And I think what I'm getting to is open AI is a good example of a company that's winning. But unless they somehow figure out a way to start making $50 billion, there's another $47 billion of revenue that's missing. That's my plea. Yeah, I think they get there. I'm totally honest and I watch you. I'm saying I'm just saying that's like just for the last couple years of spend Yeah I mean There's so much dry powder sitting around at these large companies. I think capital is a weapon kind of situation But it could be a big. That's a different explanation Which is we we can just take the rate of return to zero because we have nothing better to do with the money That's a fair answer as well.

39:58Jason. Yeah, I mean what are they gonna do give a dividend? I mean got for a bit right? Like I mean Facebook started giving one apples giving one so maybe you know I think that's how they can't do M &A because they'll need a con. Yeah look where I think where I think Jamal has a point is that these big tech companies are not building out all this infrastructure because they've modeled out the ROI and it's extremely positive. They're doing it because it's an arms race. It's so strategic right now to have these AI capabilities and to power the expected next generation of AI apps they can't afford to let one of their competitors have that.

40:30They have to compete. So they're all in an arms race with each other bidding up the cost of these GPUs because they have to have that supply. It's like nukes. It's like nukes. You never use them. He tells them out. It might be the good. Well, I mean, I think they're going to use them, but yeah, the point is that it's a zero some game. And if I let you have this GPU, I have one less GPU to use. What do you think of it? Andries and this article that Andries and just turned on 20 ,000 GPUs. Jamat, to your point, it was reported earlier this week that Injury's in Harowitz. that's a very large venture capital firm here in the Bay Area, is building a 20 ,000 GPU cluster.

41:05We mentioned earlier, $20 ,000, $30 ,000 a GPU is what you can estimate there. So this is hundreds of millions of dollars to try to cut deals and wind deals with AI startups. And so they still this idea from Daniel Rose, which you probably don't know who that is. But it's a company called Pioneer Labs and Nat Friedman from GitHub. They did this last year. Same exact idea. They acquire 2500 H100s and they gave their portfolio companies access to it and something called the Andromeda cluster really brilliant idea There's a tweet from that It's not clear whether a 16 is purchasing these or they're just gonna pay for them on AWS or Google Cloud or some other Provider, but if these were purchased obviously hundreds of millions of dollars, what's your thought here?

41:53I won't go through all the details. I'll just go right to your opinion. Jim off. What's your thought on this? A friend of mine who's a very successful debt fund manager, and I talked about it this week, a friend of the pod. I won't name check him, but he knows who he is. And I am, we're talking about this. And basically, I think if you look at the most typical deal, so like, for example, the core weave deal, which was floating around, was something along the lines of 40 % of the cost of all the GPUs was put up in cash and 60 % was lent to CoreWeave by a whole group of bankers. So if assuming Andrieson was able to do roughly the same thing, the 20 ,000 GPU cluster at call it say 20 to 30 ,000 is between four and 600 million of cost.

42:40And if they get 60 % of it financed, I hope they did, that still leaves 40 % that they would have had to pay for, which you're still talking about $100 million plus. And so then the real question is, can they get enough equity back to make that $100 million investment worthwhile? And just to put a fine point on this, if that's $100 million of management fees, the reality is that that's actually $2 billion of value, right? Because these management companies trade at, say, 20 odd times. So what's so interesting about this is like you take $100 million of management fee, that's worth $2 billion of enterprise value.

43:18You dump it into these chips and cash. So whatever equity you get from these startups will need to make about two billion dollars plus a little bit to account for the The time value of money Otherwise you were probably better off not doing this. That's just the math. I wonder if this is expensive The 20 times math only makes sense if it's a hundred million a year in perpetuity, right? If it's a one -time spend on the hundred million then it's just a hundred million Well, you also have to power these you have to put a minute data center there's a lot of cost to these. There's a lot of ongoing costs.

43:49Yeah, a lot of ongoing costs. But just say they'll spend that another 20 or 30 million over the next 10 years. My point is, it's a drag on your enterprise value that's probably in the billion plus dollar range. And so whatever equity you get needs to make up for that plus sum. And my only comment is that if you then factor in SACs, as you said before, the desire to get these Nvidia chips down in price but also to have hardware diversity, it's a really speculative bet and you have to be really right. It's also a crazy conflicted bet too because Nvidia was using these chips in the same fashion. They were using allocations to get investment allocations in companies and then paying them off.

44:31So now you have Indriessen buying them from Nvidia. It's also convoluted. Amazon was doing this as well with AWS giving credits, etc. So Tridentrue strategy, but very strange. I don't think it's not weird to strategy. Because, I mean, look, it's definitely different. I'm thinking it's weird because of in they're giving money to Nvidia. I don't think you need to do this to build a successful venture firm. No, no, no. If you want to maximize the value of the entity, you would keep the 100 million for yourself because then some investor will pay you a huge amount before that. What I'm saying is that they they're buying these chips and then they're effectively time sharing them out to portfolio companies.

45:09And so they're gonna charge for their use. They're gonna amortize this cost over. They're gonna charge back, you think they're gonna charge back the start up. Yeah, and I just say, I'm just saying you have to see a path to make back what you're losing an enterprise value. Is that so? I think this is brilliant for your zero, one, two, like Pioneer Labs was doing, because those people really don't have the money. If you're a viable concern, you can easily get the money to buy your own or rent your own. And we just said in the previous story that the glut and the weight is over for these. So interesting.

45:39It depends on the rate of depreciation. If you buy these chips at a premium because they're scarce right now and then all of a sudden they rapidly appreciate and value, then you might lose money. On the other hand, if the current value the investor remains stable because they don't appreciate that rapidly and then you can charge the cost back to the startups who are using the chips, then you break even. I think that's an excellent point. Yeah. And it's basically a business development expense. I think that's an excellent one. So this is a Beyond Marketing. This is a PR marketing exercise and it worked.

46:08Well done Mark, because we're talking about it. I don't think it's that bad idea at all. I mean, I think it's kind of interesting. I think they've gotten 100 million in marketing of it. Just, hey, do you think it? Yeah, I mean, it appeals to a certain category of startup who needs the GPUs. I mean, just to be clear, like there's lots of AI applications that don't need direct access to GPUs, because, you know, for example, we're using the Clawed models and we're using the OpenAI. You're using the language model API, so it's a abstract. Correct. I don't need them. Yeah, we don't deal with GP. I mean, you have to be in the model business effectively to need direct access to the GPUs.

46:41As we wrap up here today, freeberg your thoughts, and you had mentioned in the group chat, last minute addition to the docket, you wanted to talk about the French elections, and I know SACs was tweeting about it because all the people who hate him were sending it to me. So I always know when he tweets about something spicy. Graffrey Burke, what do you got? There was effectively a center and left alignment that created kind of a surprise upset to the right that was surging in the polls leading into the selection in France. And as we all saw, there was a lot of celebration in the streets and some writing and so on.

47:19But it was a real kind of surprise shift left in this kind of important vote that happened in France. And then the party stepped up and put forward these economic proposals. They said a 90 % tax on income over 400 ,000 euro a year, a 14 % mandatory wage increase or time and age needs to be reduced to the age of 60 from 64, which obviously massively increases social spending, and that they want to put forward proposals to put in place price controls on things like food, electricity, gas, and petrol. So effectively intervening in kind of the free market pricing system. Last month in India, we also saw elections where the BJP did not get a majority in Mexico.

47:58We saw a shine bomb get elected with 60 % of the vote, retaining the leftist government. Shine bomb's platform is that the government's role is to really solve the economic inequality kind of throughout the country. She is a Jewish scientist who believes in technological progress, but her orientation is really around having institutions manage progress, not individuals in free markets. We've seen this broad across other places. In the UK, there was a big election in this past week, But I wanted to take a step back and just highlight that there is this kind of emerging tactical alliance that we've seen repeat a few times between the left and the center that pushes back against the right globally.

48:37But really what I think we're seeing is a much bigger shift where there's this bigger battle between socialism and free market democracy. And I think that we're seeing it all happen at once because of globalism and because of the fact that globalism has enabled. just like we've seen manifest in the United States, massive and significant economic progress, but at the cost of a small number of people becoming very wealthy and a large number of people feeling left behind as a result of the wealth accumulating in a major way to a small number of people. And the reaction that we're seeing in France, in India, in Mexico, in the US, in the UK is all very much kind of a line that there is this big push that social list practices can perhaps resolve the inequality and the inefficiencies that are seen in the markets today.

49:36And this is being manifested in a lot of really nasty ways. First of all, I think it's rationalized as being, hey, there's economic excess for a few while the majority have left behind. It's activated by big bureaucracy, by anti -free market principles, and by tax policies and spending policies that will ultimately cripple economic growth. And I don't want to say I'm against taxes because I'm all four taxes to make up for budget deficits. But I think the results are ultimately across all of this going to be what we saw happen in Argentina, which I think is on the other side of this problem, which is unsustainable debt accumulation and massive inflation and crippling unemployment.

50:15And I think that we should really take a hard look at what's happening around the world right now as being all related. All of the industrialized world is voting in a similar way and starting to shift in a similar way that we should be fairly concerned about and pay a lot of attention to. In the US, there's this expectation that Trump is going to totally drown Biden if Biden stays in the race. I think that if we see the same sort of thing happen in the US in that the psyche of people are that we feel left behind that there's a hierarchical system that disadvantages the majority of people because economic progress is not proportional to everyone.

50:55You could end up seeing a surprise sort of voting system emerge in the US where the left may win because socialist principles are on the rise in the psyche of the youth in the industrialized world. And I'm not saying I'm making a prediction about how the election is going to go in the US, but I do think that there's a big kind of fundamental change underway here. Sax, he didn't mention immigration, specifically Muslim, Islamic immigration in France. That seems to be a big part of this issue that people aren't talking about in the lack of integration of that population into society. In fact, I've been told by folks in France that it's kind of the opposite.

51:36Islamic, Muslim immigrants are kind of shunned and aren't integrated by the French people I'm not sure how true that is. I don't have a lot of firsthand experience in it, but how much of that is part of what's happening in this right left, you know, Donnie Brook occurring in France? Because they're literally on the streets fighting and, yeah, riding. Yeah, look, I don't think that the use demand for socialism is what's driving the results in France at all. Let me explain what happened. So the way that the voting works in France, It's a, you know, unusual system to our eyes where they have a first round of voting.

52:14And in that first round of voting, Marine Le Pen's party, National Rally won a strong plurality of the vote. And the map looked like this where literally they won every district in the country except for Paris. I mean, it was a really dominant performance. And so people were expecting major reform. and Jake, how you're right, that Marine Le Pen's major issue or party is the unlimited immigration that's taken place into France. The French people or a substantial portion of them are up in arms about this and actually this is something that's very common across all of Europe. They're very nationalistic.

52:53Let's call it what it is. They care about their culture. The indigenous people of France are opposed to this cellular colonial invasion that's happening from the global south and they want to preserve their French culture and society and nation as it has always been. And they do not see how this unlimited immigration from the global south is good for them. It's not good for them economically. It's not good for societal cohesiveness. It's not good for crime and so on. So this is undoubtedly a huge driver of national rally success. But then what happened is that in the French system, there's a second round of voting a week later.

53:32And we got these results where national rally still got the plurality of the vote. They got 37 % of the vote, but they only won 142 seats. Whereas Macron's party got 22 % of the vote, 148. And then a collection of parties called the New Popular Front, which is basically a collection of far left parties under the radical socialist Jean -Luc Mélenchon won only 27 % of the vote, but won the most seats. And this is what I think Freeberg's reacting to as the socialists ended up with the most seats. Well, how did this happen if National Rally Marine Le Penz Party got a lot more votes than new popular front?

54:11The answer is that Macron, President France conspired with the far left to have 200 candidates quit to basically drive those voters, the voters in, let's call it the center left, over to the far left, in order to block Marine Leapence Party from winning the number of seats that they otherwise would have. So just to recap what you're talking about, they have two rounds of elections here. They have a first round of second round. If you don't win like the majority in the first round, then it goes to the second round runoff. And then strategically what McCrone and his party did was they took the multiple parties and said, hey, we'll just have y 'all drop out and consolidate our votes.

54:54Almost like in a microcosm in the United States, it would be like RFK, dropping out at the last minute and saying, I endorsed this person on the left or right. So they get a very strategic thing to do. Right, but they went district by district and they basically said, okay, yeah. Great strategy. Hold on, in this district, we're going to let the, we're going to have McCrones candidate drop out and endorse new part of the front. So that's what they did. so brilliant well it's a manipulative result and what it ends up with look a lot of people said actually you're saying that they rigged the election look they didn't rigged the votes okay i have no reason to believe that the votes are real but they did rigged the candidates in order to frustrate the desire of the french people for reform the reform that marine lapen was offering and freeberg you're interpreting this is basically a big endorsement for socialism i don't think that's what this is i think that what happened here is that the center left under macron was willing to throw the election through legal.

55:52I'm not saying that you did anything illegal through legal manipulation. They consolidated the candidates. Yeah, exactly. And so it's to me, it's just it's sad that you know what one one person tweeted that we we voted for reform. We voted for national sovereignty. We voted to restrict unlimited immigration. And what we got was communism. This isn't what we voted for. Right. And so it's just kind of sad that what's happening is that the system, the system politicians are essentially getting together to frustrate the popular will of the people. The Penn's party still got outvoted in each of those districts, right?

56:30Is that correct? Only because they dropped a candidate. 200 candidates basically were strategically dropped out in order to throw the vote in those districts. So all these systems ultimately resolved to a two party system where some minority can and hijack one of the parties to enforce their will ideologically. I think that's kind of my point, sax. I mean, you know, the day after the election, there was this statement on some of their economic priorities. Increase the tax rate to 90 % on income over 400K, drop the retirement age from 64 to 60. I mean, you know, you go down the list, you know, putting in price controls on, you know, free market services and products and goods.

57:12This is a lot of what we're seeing kind of repeated in a bunch of different ways. It's all the same story with different characters all over the industrialized world. Right about that part. So basically on the heels of this vote with New Popular Front winning all these seats, Jean -Luc Melo -Chain gives this speech in which he rails basically against Macron's neoliberal policies. He wants to go back to the restricted number of hours in the work week. He wants a 90 % wealth tax. and so on across the board. He does want radical socialism. And he says that he will not cooperate with Macron's party.

57:48So, I mean, this is like just, it's almost cartoonish and clownish. How much this is backfired on Macron? He was so hell bent on trying to frustrate Marine Le Pen that he threw the election to new popular front who has now announced that they will not work with him. Okay? Now, Jake, you may want to say, well, this is the will of the majority, But the majority of the country did not want to vote for chaos. But chaos is what they've got because now there is no dominant faction in their parliament, right? And you pop up. By the way, David India, they just lost majority in India, right? Which is the first time in 12 years.

58:23And the UK is also up in disarray. No, there's a majority, but not a super majority. Not a super majority, sorry. Yeah, sorry. The news free bird is that Melanchon will not have majority in the assembly to push through those radical policies that he wants. No faction will have a majority because they're not going to work with each other. You've got three big parties here or three big groups and you need two of them working together to get anything done. So what's going to happen is you're just going to have basically a log jam and like Marine Le Pen said reform in France is just going to wait and we're going to lose another year.

58:57Do you think socialist ideologies are on the rise in the youth in the industrialized world And is that showing up in elections around the world? I think what's happening is that there is a pent up demand for reform. People are craving reform. I understand that the system does not work. It feels rigged for everyone. It feels rigged. It feels corrupt. And it's resistant to reform. And so they are basically clamoring for that. And they will get it wherever they can take it. In the past, socialism has won when this has happened. This has happened. This happened after World World War I. It's happened multiple times in history where we've seen the socialists rise in these moments.

59:35Well, I don't think it's because socialism is that desirable. I actually think that the desire for reform, I think it is first and foremost looking for what I would call a nationalist populist solution. Right. And you can see here that national rally did do better than new popular fronts considerably better, but it was that the systems desire to hand a victory to new popular front that gave them the win. And I think you see a similar thing in the United States. Look, if Joe Biden had just shut down the border for the last four years, huge win. We would be in a materially different position. Absolutely.

1:00:11But the radicals in his party didn't want to do that. So in a way, you could say that you have a similar type of conspiracy taking place where where the center left would rather enable and support the radical progressives as opposed to making sensible moderations or sensible adjustments that would actually make that much more popular. It would. And what has Trump done in Trump 2 .0 that I think I don't know who could have possibly coached or given any feedback Trump have had to win this election, but he seems much more presidential. He seems normal. He basically went right to the middle on abortion.

1:00:47He went right to the middle on immigration and he's not acting like a lunatic and name calling and you know his debate Performance was fantastic. He just sat back. I look look who's been the most hardened supporter of Joe Biden It's been the progressive left Right those are the folks that have actually said hey And and I think probably it's because there's a underlying quid pro quo at play a OC Yes, Bernie Sanders all of these folks Elizabeth Warren If they support Biden and he wins a second term, I suspect that there's going to be a lot of their legislative agenda that basically gets put up for both 100%.

1:01:26100%. Yes. I think there's a common denominator here that both Macron and Biden would rather throw the government of the country to radicals and communists, then implement sensible restrictions on immigration. It's mind blowing to me that neither Macron nor Biden can simply make a sensible adjustment on immigration People do not want open borders. They especially don't want them. In Europe, they don't want them here either. There are reasonable borders, reasonable immigration. If I had to kind of give you my opinion on all of this, I do think that when you look across all of these countries I do think freeberg is touching on something But I think the explanation doesn't have to be this idea that people are embracing socialism I think there's a much simpler explanation as well, which is that we've gone through a very difficult period of joblessness of inflation of high costs And I think typically what happens is you have governmental turnover in these moments And so the incumbent gets tossed out and somebody else comes in and whatever they're saying seems like the new thing So, for example, in Canada right now, the opposite is trending, which is the liberal socialist government just looks totally incompetent, and it looks like the progressives when this election happens is just going to completely run over them.

1:02:47And so that's more of a swing to the right. So I think it's less left or right. I think it's incumbent people who have not done necessarily a great job in these last four years getting tossed out for folks that are new. And I think that explains a lot of these elections more than socialism or anything else. I really hope you're right. I just worry about like the friend of economic globalization has kind of moved every because it used to be that every country kind of looked like its own country politically and there's just a lot of alignment happening where sacks is right is like look it's in every other country of the world.

1:03:21Other than the West you embrace the national traditions that make a culture its own. But if you came to Sri Lanka, you'd see people in Sari's, you'd see people dressed in traditional garb, you speak this one language that's somewhat complicated, not spoken anywhere else, although we teach English as well. But the point is that there are these cultural traditions. And that's just an example of a country that I know well. But many countries, if you look across Africa, it's the same. If you look across Asia, Central and South America. In the West, it's more of that, you know, you come and there's this kind of like, kind of like odd model culture.

1:03:59And I think at some point people are pushing back against it. I do agree with David that there is that pushback. And I think that that's a very unique pushback. Mary's really unique in that. We had a concept called the melting pot where you would culturally assimilate. And if you say that today and you were to teach that in schools, I think people would get very upset. Very upset. Very upset. Very thinking like you are giving up your culture. No. You've chosen to leave your land and make a new world here in this new experiment called America. And if you assimilate, you're welcome here. If you don't want to assimilate, you're not welcome in America.

1:04:32That's what they taught when we went to school as Gen Xers in the 70s and 80s. No, no, so my only point, and I agree with you, Jake, as a country, you're allowed to have those beliefs. It's not that just because you're in the West, you have to throw that out. And all of a sudden, you have to succumb to this belief that everybody else's culture is better than the one that you've had for the last four or five hundred years. I don't think that that's necessarily true. And I think you miss out on a lot by saying that. So to your point, I just think that when you look globally, there's a really interesting quote from Peter Teal that actually is he was, he made this comment, which is, if you look at the 10 commandments, he's like the first and the 10th are the most powerful, because the first one is about looking up in the second and the 10th is not about looking down, everything else is about looking left and right of you.

1:05:21And he brings it up in this context of all of these commandments, the middle eight, are all about how you should not be looking to the left and the right, figuring out and making yourself getting tilted about the fact that you have less than the other person. No, no. No, no. And I just think that there may be something interesting in that idea, which is that what we've really done is we've created tools that have allowed you to just obsess and fantasize about all these random people's lives who you think are perfect. But they're just manufacturers trying to get views anyways. And you just leave being angry and thinking your life sucks.

1:05:57And in fact, your life is actually not that bad. And I think if we had more truth and honesty and authenticity, maybe there would be less of this perception and you'd actually try to just enjoy what you have. And I don't think we figured that out. So let's wrap up here on the hot swap summer update and the speedrun primary. Biden still insists he's still running for president and he will not stand down since the last episode so much has happened, including George Clooney writing an op -ed in the New York Times this week. I love Joe Biden, but we need a new nominee. Two weeks ago, Clooney co -hosted a fundraiser, Katzenberg and some other Hollywood bigwigs that raised 30 million for President Biden.

1:06:42Twice as much as you guys did for Trump, but I mean, this is Hollywood. And they had 95 ,000 people. We had a hundred people. I know. I'm just saying it's different. Pressive what you guys did. Clooney is also besties with Obama. And Obama has put out a tweet in support of Biden. He thought, according to a political report, Clooney gave Obama the heads up before he published this, NBC is reporting that Biden has lost his donor base. Anonymous quotes, the money has absolutely shut off. It's already disastrous. Two of the sources said this month is on a path to be down by possibly half or much more from large donors.

1:07:22Adam Schiff, who is as partisan as they come said Biden should slow down and make the right decision here. He also said he should get new counsel, independent counsel. So that was on Meet the and Nancy Pelosi gave a non -answer when asked if she supports Biden as the nominee and again as part of soon as they come. Tim Cain said, complete confidence, Joe Biden will do the patriotic thing. Kim regards it with your judgment on the news. Yeah, that's pretty rough. And actually, I was reporting that shot. Let me show him. Let me ask you. I'm putting it in this spot here. You've seen all these clips.

1:07:58Yeah. Do you think that there's an active cover -up going on and buy the White House about his cognitive state. Hold on. No Strikannis is gonna make a prediction. I've got it. A whistleblower will emerge in the next 10 days. If you are a doctor, a nurse, a secretary, an EA, or part of the NSERCLE here, and you know he's incognitive to climb whistleblowing. Hock two on that whistle and get it out there, folks. Cause we know there's a cover -up. We know there's a cover up. So spit on that thing. That's right. All right. Hock too, that whistle. Hock too. And let's get it out there because all of it coming out.

1:08:42No, but sorry. Kidding aside, you think there's a cover up? Of course there's a cover up. I mean, come on. Did you see this report that a doctor, a neurologist went to the White House? Visited. Visited it. And the New York Times is putting this out there. and then watch this clip of KJP who is absolutely covering everything up. We all play poker. This person is bluffing. They're lying. It's so obvious. Play the clip now. I'm sorry. It's a very basic direct question. We want to wait. Wait a second. Wait. Wait a second. Wait a second. Wait. Hold on a second. Wait. No, no, no, no, no. Wait a minute.

1:09:25Ed, please. A little respect here. Please. Every year around the president's physical examination, he sees a neurologist. That's three times. Right? So I am telling you that he has seen or neurologist three times while he has been in this presidency. So that is answering that question. No, it is. It is. You're asking me. I can't write house. I just, I also said to you, Ed, I also said to you for security reasons. We cannot share names. It is public. I, I, I, I, I, it's in the long book. Guys, guys, hold on a second. The point of a press conference is that you ask questions and you ask hard questions.

1:10:11This person is covering it up. It is a huge cover up. I haven't seen somebody lie this bold face since Elizabeth Holmes. If you had the machine that did the blood test, you'd show the machine. If there's a cognitive test that shows he's not in decline, they would show the test. Show the test. If you're a whistleblower, release the test. Somebody out there has the results of these tests. And if you're a doctor and you're covering this up, if you work in that White House and you're covering this up, is the most unethical, un -American, e -moral thing you can do. And this is the reason we have whistleball protections.

1:10:44There are 50 people who probably know what's going on here, and I know there's at least five. So somewhere in that number is somebody who has a profile in courage who will come out and tell the American people what the hell is going on here. Well, I think we already know what's going on, J .K. I know, but this not telling the truth in a press conference with the press and then admonishing the press, admonishing the press like this, it's complete our bullsh**. So in that press conference, it's nice to see the press actually doing their job because their job is to hold truth to account and to actually ask tough questions and they're finally doing it.

1:11:21But I see in that press conference not just a liar at the podium, I think the entire audience there are a bunch of liars too. Because they knew, they knew the truth about the situation and they refused to report it and they refused to investigate it until now. Now, what you've heard in the past week or so is a bunch of people who knew about the situation telling on themselves. So first you had George Clooney and that New York Times op -ed, he says that after the fundraiser we did, yeah, I knew and everyone there knew. That was a month ago. What took you so long to come out? Olivia Newsie had, says she had the story for New York Magazine six months ago, okay?

1:12:00She had anonymous sources, but she said she was afraid to publish it because the White House would basically push back and she didn't think the press corps went back her. Chuck Todd just said it on a podcast that a cabinet official, okay, in the Biden White House told him two years ago that he could not get in meeting with the president because as a president was effectively incapacitated and his inner circle was keeping him shielded. Chuck Todd knew. Why didn't Chuck Todd report that? Why didn't Chuck Todd pass it on to an investigative reporter at NBC? To investigate that, these derreliction of duty is the answer of duty.

1:12:34It's a derreliction of duty. Of course, but let me tell you what they were trying to do. Okay. They were trying to weaken a Bernie's this thing. Absolutely. They thought they could get Biden through the election. and so they were on narrative and they weren't going to report the truth about his condition. 100 percent. You're just going to try and get him across the finish line. They're all complicit in this cover -up and they don't deserve any credibility because now they're finally reporting it because the only reason they're reporting it is because of concerns about Biden's electability. They're afraid that he's going to lose and the turning point was that debate because the whole country could see it.

1:13:12So in the wake of that, they're sarno panic and they're realizing, oh wait, we needed you can't it it. So finally, they're telling the truth about the situation, but they had absolutely no intention telling the truth about it because they could have done it a long time ago. And they were just trying, but they're just going to try and drag by and across the finish line. And we need to give one person as flat or as here. Dean Phillips came on this program seven months ago. And if you listen to all in the number one podcast in the world, you're going to know what's going to happen in the future. It's not just notes for canis here, the guests come on and tell us the truth.

1:13:43Dean Phillips told us. I quote, when I asked him, I'm not sure who asked him, when we asked him, he said, people are saying that I'm causing his problems, that I could risk his reelection. I'm certainly not the guy that has shown his decline. That's on video, that's on audio. You see it, he's a human being for goodness sake. Seven months ago, he said this, he's a human being, he's now in his 80s, he is clearly in decline. But do I think he will be in a position to continue leading this company, this country in the future? I do not. I think I'm joined about 75 % of the country in saying that. He was clear on this podcast.

1:14:21He was clear on this podcast and Kudos to Dean Phillips, driving the courage to tell the truth. He was one of the only people in the Democratic Party to tell the truth. Remember, he also said in our podcast that he called up JB Pritzker. He called up Gretchen Whitmer. He said, where are you guys? You're the leaders of the Democratic Party. Why aren't you challenging President Biden? He obviously isn't fit to serve. They He told him shut up. They wouldn't take his phone calls. Okay. And look, Dean Phillips knew the truth without having special access to the president. Quite frankly, he's a backbencher, right?

1:14:50But it was obvious to him. They all knew. The whole party knew. But their strategy was to pretend and deny and to treat anyone who told to excommunicate anyone like Dean Phillips who told the truth and to try and discredit anyone who reported the truth as basically a partisan or a liar who is trafficking in the face. Remember that? It's so all these people are complicit. They're all complicit and the only reason they're telling the truth now is because they're afraid of losing an election. Well, and the receipts are coming. Well, let's just play this out. So if there is a grant coverup, I think Jason, you are right that there's too much time between now and the election, there will be a deep throat watergate style leak here.

1:15:34You know, there will be a woodward in Bernstein and gets to the bottom of this. I just think the odds of that are 100 % of it not happening are too low. So I guess then the real question is, is it that the only way to keep the charade going is the quote unquote threat of the Donald Trump boogie man? Is that what they use basically to hang over these people to? Of course. Yeah. I mean that, listen, that worked last time. Trump in the overwhelming majority of Americans felt Trump's first presidency was too divisive and it was too chaotic. They used that to win. Okay, fair enough. Now they're trying to use that again.

1:16:14It's not working. Why Trump 2 .0? He's coming across as reasonable. A lot of the things he got right when you re -underrided him about the border, he got that right. The economy was pretty good under him. He did some things correct. He's not like all demagogue and all evil. I have my problems with his behavior, I've made a document here, but you cannot use that excuse anymore because Americans are going to say cognitive decline, somebody with Alzheimer's, like my aunt, my uncle, my parent, whatever they've experienced at first hand, or Trump. It's an easy choice for most Americans, and that's why Trump will beat Biden, and that's why they're going to do the speed run, and that's catching steam next.

1:16:49And let's just, we can wrap on that, I think I mentioned here the speed run primary a couple of weeks ago, Nick, roll the clip, must credit no shrekanas. They're going to do Democratic primary speedrun. Here's what's going to happen. They're going to do five debates in 10 weeks and then whoever wins wins. Kamala, he's going to resign. Kamala becomes president. Kamala gets to run in the speedrun. She gets to speedrun like everybody else. Dean Phillips gets to come in. Everybody speedruns it. They take over the media. But the media will go crazy over the summer massive ratings. Boom. Pull up the semifore article after I made my prediction.

1:17:32Two Democratic party insiders have floated this very unique idea in semifore. It's pretty obvious idea, I guess. Biden steps down as the nominee. Where did you get it from, Jake Hell? There's my idea. Because I didn't hear it anywhere. Okay, I personally don't think it's going to happen, but I still think you deserve credit for being the first. So you came up with this and now it's a spread or what? Oh, well, here we go. Stem was amazing. I mean, you're name checking yourself here. So this is pretty, I don't know what's happening in this bizarro universe. I put on a red tie and all of a sudden I'm getting everything right.

1:18:03Okay, who knows? Biden steps down. I mean, you're listening so many times in the past, your head has been so far up your ass, but this time it's really real. You open it and you see your face, but it's you just name checking yourself. I guess I got a name check. Me. But here's what Stem afore says. This is their version. Biden steps down as the nominee mid July. Okay, that's now. Binding announces the new system would support from Kamala Harris. Candidates would have a few days to throw their hats in the ring. Democrats would start a primary sprint. Oh, not a speedrun, a primary sprint. We're six candidates, not 10 who have received the most votes from delegates pledged to run positive only campaigns in the month leading up to the DNC weekly forums for each candidate would be moderated by cultural icons.

1:18:43Oh, interesting punch up. Michelle Obama, Oprah Taylor Swift in order to engage voters. As I talked about taking over the media, nominee will be chosen by delegates using rank choice voting your favorites acts before the start of the DNC on August 9th. So anyway, they have the folks, speedrun coming, whistleblower, August 19th, speedrun and the whistleblower. Look for it this month. Okay, look, I think you deserve credit for being the first to talk about this and that idea is clearly gaining some currency on the left. However, at the end of the day, I don't think the Democrats can afford to do that because they're ready in the state of chaos right now.

1:19:18And if they finally succeed in pushing Biden overboard, the last thing they're going to want to do is have the chaos of an open primary, even if it is a speedrun primary. I think they're just going to have to go to Kamala Harris. I think that's what they've decided. I think that if they succeed in pushing Biden out, which does seem probably more likely than not at this point, I think it's got to be Harris, and I think she's going to be the nominate. So I just don't think they're going to come. You worried about him? Well, no, look, I think that Trump should win regardless, but it's an opportunity for them to reset the race.

1:19:50And that's what's driving all of this is that they're concerned about losing. But look, let me say this, that everything that's happened here with Biden's cognitive state is just one in a series of hoaxes and cover -ups that the Democrat party has transpired over the last several years. It's gotten to the point where you have to wonder, can these guys even run a presidential campaign without hoaxes you had the seal dossier okay you have the whole suckers and losers hoax you have the very fine people hoax you have that this is the best version of Biden hoax you had the whole cheap fake hoax and you've just got a wonder is this a party who deserves the trust of the American people i think that trump deserves another term just as a review told the misinformation and lies that the democratic party has told about him and i think that he should win shout out to Scott Adams and his hoax list.

1:20:44Here we go. The Scott Adam. He's got. Scott Adams is obsessed with his. That's like 20 % of the hoax list. There's like 10 more. Okay. No, he's he's been keeping a list. Yeah. Trump deserves to win just based on all the hoaxes have been thrown at him. All right. And you know what? You got to give him credit because it was his decision to go on CNN and that debate. That really called their murder on this whole thing. God, when they started, this is when you knew something was in the air. When he got like started getting ovation and clapping from the rigged CNN audience for the town hall. I mean, or maybe CNN did that and set up themselves and set up the Democrats.

1:21:23I don't know. I don't think it was a setup. I don't think it was a setup. No, I think, look, there are a lot of people who do think that it was a controlled demolition they want by and out. I don't think so. I think this is a conspiracy theory. It is a conspiracy theory and I understand why people might think that because so many conspiracy theories have turned out to be true. However, I don't believe that's what happened. I believe that Biden staff created conditions for the debate that they thought would be untenable to Trump, right? They said that we're gonna choose the host. They're gonna be hosts who basically already called Trump Hitler, right?

1:21:54So it's like the most favorable setting. They said there's not gonna be an audience, we're gonna turn off your microphone and they thought that Trump would just say no to all of this and they'd be able to get Biden through without debate. But Trump called their bluff, he said, okay, I'll do it. Sure. And he walked into the lion's den, And just like a member a year ago, he walked through the lines and it's CNN to do that town hall. Remember he had to do it. Comedically, you got to admit that Trump has the way. If anybody in mainstream media, you got to admit that Trump has the way. Vos like Tony Montana said the only thing in this world that gives orders is balls.

1:22:30Have some you got to admit to a you. Yeah, you got to. Don't forget some balls. South of South of the Rales, four. The chairman dictator calling him from Italy, my bestie, David Sacks. I'll see you on Jesse Waters. And at the R &C, for Freeberg, who's genuine -flecting somewhere in a retreat center, I am, no sugarcaneous, and high -everage prediction. High -everage prediction. We're gonna see you at the next episode, everybody. Bye -bye. Love you guys. Bye bye.

1:23:32Oh man, my hamlet is actually a meaty ass place. We should all just get a room and just have one big hug or two because they're all just like this like sexual tension but we just need to release that house. What your, that beat, what your, your beer beat. Beat, what? We need to get mercy. I'm going on, lilin'

1:23:58I'm going on, lilin' And now the plugs the all in summit is taking place in Los Angeles September 8th, 9th and 10th you can apply for a tickets summit dot all in podcast dot co and you can subscribe to this show on YouTube. Yes, watch all the videos our YouTube channel has passed 500 ,000 subscribers. Shout out to Donnie from Queens. Follow the show x .com slash the all in pod. Tiktok all underscore in underscore top Instagram the all in pod linked in search for all and podcast and to follow Chamophies X dot com slash chama off sign up for his weekly email. What I read this week at chamoph dot sub stack dot com and sign up for a developer account at console dot groc dot com and see what all the excitement is about follow sex at x dot com slash David Sachs and sign up for glue at glue dot AI follow freedberg x dot com slash freedberg and oh hollow is hiring click on the careers page at oh hollow genetics dot com I am the world's greatest moderator Jason Calcannis if you are a founder and you want to come to my accelerators and my programs founder .university .want .close that supply to apply for funding from your boy J .Cal for your startup and check out Athena Wow .com.

1:25:13This is the company I am most excited about at the moment. Athena Wow .com to get a virtual assistant for about $3 ,000 a month. I have two of them. Thanks for tuning in to the world's number one podcast. You can And help by telling just two friends. That's all I ask. Forward. This podcast, the two friends and say, this is the World's Greatest Podcast. You got to check it out and we'll make you smarter and make you laugh, laugh while learning. We'll see you all next time. Bye bye.