Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law

19 Jul 2025 · 1 h 19 min

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Podcast Notes: All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Episode Title

Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law Episode Summary In this episode, hosts Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and David Friedberg engage with guest Gavin Baker to discuss several pressing topics in economics, politics, and technology, including market reactions to tariffs, the potential of artificial general intelligence (AGI), and recent legislative developments in crypto. The episode also features a segment with Senator Bill Hagerty discussing the GENIUS Act.

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Key Discussions

  1. Welcome and Introduction
  2. The episode opens with a lighthearted conversation among hosts and guest Gavin Baker about a recent Coldplay concert.
  1. Market Analysis (1:51)
  2. Reactions to Tariffs: Discussion on how tariffs are currently being priced in and their implications on the market.
  3. Trump vs. Powell: Insights into Trump's potential decision to fire Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, and its market implications:
  4. Immediate negative market response following rumors of Powell's firing.
  5. Sacks highlights that market only dipped slightly, indicating potential normalization to such news.
  1. Artificial General Intelligence Prize (19:24)
  2. $10 Trillion AGI Prize: Discussion about AGI and the anticipated economic impact:
  3. The hosts speculate on what AGI and superintelligence might look like in the economy.
  4. Emphasis on the transformative potential of AGI in various sectors.
  1. Legislative Developments (38:33)
  2. GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act:
  3. Introduction of the GENIUS Act, which is aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins.
  4. The passing of these acts in the House and implications for the U.S. cryptocurrency landscape.
  5. Sacks and Bo Hines elaborated on the significance of these bills for the future of digital assets in the U.S.
  1. AI Infrastructure Investments (52:42)
  2. $90 Billion Investment in AI: Discussion on new investments announced in AI infrastructure and the lifting of export restrictions on Nvidia H20 GPUs.
  1. Interview with Senator Bill Hagerty (1:06:06)
  2. Insights on the GENIUS Act: Senator Hagerty discusses the bipartisan efforts behind the GENIUS Act and its implications for U.S. economic competitiveness.
  3. Emphasis on how the legislation seeks to modernize the payment system and secure the U.S. dollar's dominance through digital assets.

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Key Takeaways

  • Market Volatility: The potential firing of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could significantly impact market stability, reflecting Trump's sensitivity to market reactions.
  • Transformative Potential of AI: The conversation highlights the potential economic and societal transformations expected from advancements in AGI, with the prospect of a $10 trillion economic prize contingent on successful development.
  • Crypto Legislation: The passing of the GENIUS Act is viewed as a major step toward establishing a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the U.S., which is critical for maintaining the country’s status as a leader in financial innovation.
  • AI Infrastructure: Significant investment in AI infrastructure is indicative of the growing recognition of AI’s role in economic growth and competitiveness.

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Conclusion Through engaging discussions and expert insights, this episode of the All-In Podcast provides listeners with a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape, the future of artificial intelligence, the evolving regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, and the implications of political actions on market dynamics. The hosts' candid conversations reflect a blend of tech insights, economic analysis, and legislative developments, making it a timely episode for anyone interested in these fields.

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Transcript

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0:00So Gavin, were you at the cold play concert? Boss in the last night. Sadly, I missed that. It's, who you was. Exactly. I was at home with my wife, but yeah, wow, how insane. There's just so many layers to that story. It's impossible to get away from. It'll be 72 hours of memes. Dave, were you at the cold play concert in Boss in the last night? And if so, were you with Woody, your astronaut friend? Did you take Woody to the concert? No counselor. I was here in Santa Cruz last night. Oh, you already said a cruise on a business trip. And the funny thing is, if they had not reacted the way they did, the camera would have just peered away.

0:44Yeah, nothing. No one would have ever known. There is some great irony to the head of people and human resources, being in an affair with the CEO apparently. Alleged that you know the conclusions do you know it could have I he could have been cracking her back You know like when you get the back time yes He could have been a chiropractic yeah chiropractic move Oh my god. What? You're like your winner's ride. Brain man David Sack. And I said we open sources to the fans and they've just got the reason for me. Love you best. I'm queen of kilowatt. All right, let's get to work. It is the slow, slow news weeks of summer.

1:28And we are delighted, delighted. Have fan favorite, super intelligent, bestie, Gavin Baker with us from a treatise. How are you, sir? How's your summer shaping up? Fantastic. It's been awesome. Stock market is back. That's good for you because you invest in both public and private companies, yeah? My firm does, yes. Yeah. Gavin, let me ask you a question. How do you price tariffs today? So where do you think this ends up? Obviously, there's a lot of back and forth. then everyone's trying to make a read on what the end game is. What's your market take? Is your making investments right now and where we end up on the tariff run?

2:07It is a good question. It's open. We're going to see what happens with sectoral tariffs. I think it's hard. You're doing the winning AI summit. It's going to be hard to win an AI if we put tariff -sons and me -conductors. But for a lot of what I do for now, tariffs are not super relevant, but for the market, for the economy, they are relevant. But for AI, there may be a little less relevant, because I think everyone is maybe a little more sophisticated about the downsides of tariffs for constructive data centers here in the United States. And ultimately, don't we look at the tariff situation and say, despite the shock and awe of the opening salvo, it's quite a boring position.

2:57Now, it just seems to be reciprocity and reasonable reciprocity at that. Yeah, that's how we would sort of categorize the end game here. I would say for everyone but China, you know, it is, and you know, we've clearly reached some sort of deal with China, you know, rare earths for H20s and MI308Xs. But it's interesting. And one of the trade deals that has been finalized is Vietnam. And there's a special carve out for goods that were shipped from China through Vietnam. So they are clearly focused on China more than almost in, you know, any other country, rightly or wrongly. But yeah, and I do think there is, you know, there was maybe three months where Trump said he did not care about the stock market, but now he's back to quoting the market at all time highs.

3:48Yes. He clearly cares. And it's clearly very sensitive to market feedback. So I think that that will be a dampening mechanism on tariff volatility. But you know, they pass the bill and he immediately went back to tariffs. And you know, we'll see where we land in August. But I just think the most important thing in the market by far is AI kind of overwhelms everything else. Absolutely. And I guess the other big story with the market and we'll get into the H20s, David Sax will be joining us in a moment. So he'll be jumping in halfway through it. But let's start with maybe this soft launch of the firing of Jerome Powell on Wednesday morning Bloomberg reported that Trump was likely to fire Powell soon.

4:36After talking with Republican lawmakers, shortly after that, the New York Times reported that Trump had actually drafted Powell's termination letter. Market instantly reacted negatively dropped 1%. Bonnie Yoltz rose about 10 basis points. You can see the blips here on these charts starting around 11 .30 AM when the article was published. Pauli Market reported Jerome Powell out as fed chair in 2025 spiked up to 30 % on Wednesday before dropping back down to 20%. Trump quickly swash these rumors, markets rebounded, and Trump said, we're not planning on doing anything regarding Powell. Some people speculating maybe this was Trump testing the market reaction and she talked about earlier Gavin, he does seem to care about the market as most presidents do.

5:22If you remember, Trump nominated Powell as Fed chair, November 2nd, 2017, and he has gone on a tirade the last couple of months calling Powell, stupid, numscal, stubborn, low IQ, a knucklehead, mentally average. It's a long list of descriptors of the person he placed. Powell's term ends May of next year. White House officials have confirmed Trump is in the process of selecting his successor. Pauli Market says that could be Kevin Warsh, 22 % Kevin Hassett, 19 % Scott Besson, 15%. This hasn't actually ever happened, right? We've never had a fed that's shared fired. But we have inflation coming back a bit.

6:02If you all remember, there's a dual mandate for the FAD, keep unemployment low, check, that's pretty good, and keeping inflation under control. That's been going very well since our massive inflation spike over the past couple of years. And here we go. CPI ticked up 10 % from 2 .4 to 2 .7%, 30 basis point increase over May. So any thoughts Gavin on these macro issues around inflation coming back a bit yet the stock market and all time high and unemployment. If you believe the unemployment data and we've had a bunch of debates here about that, you know, how correct is it being at close to an all time low in our lifetimes.

6:45Let's go macro. Yeah, I wouldn't read too much into the CPI bouncing up a little bit. that there's base rate effects, I think on a month over a month basis. And if you looked at what economists call core, super core, different ways to maybe smooth out CPI, I think inflation is still relatively contained. As far as, but I mean, a lot of very smart people are convinced that tariffs will lead to inflation. We'll see. There certainly sound theoretical arguments for why they will, but it does look like maybe the overseas exporters are eating a little bit more of the tariffs than people thought that they would, which is good for US inflation.

7:33But the combination of a very weak dollar and tariffs theoretically should lead to a little more inflation. Firing Powell, I worry that the market only went down 1%. I do think the market would go down quite a bit more if Trump did firepower. I think it would be a mistake. I hope he doesn't do it. And they're very sound reasons for the Federal Reserve to be independent. And I hope he does not read from that trial balloon down 1 % that that's all that would happen. Look, the world would continue spinning. America would go on, but it would be a mistake. Freeberg, we have this idea that there would be a couple of rate cuts and maybe we get monetary velocity going again.

8:23People will be able to take more loans out, invest more in business. But with the stock market tearing it up, there's a lot of wealth being put into the system with the big, beautiful bill. There's a lot of spending in there as we've talked about here putting that aside. It feels like the economy's in really great shape. Chances of a rate cut has now flipped. No change is now the favorite option for September, whereas a week ago the favorite option was 25 bits So this idea that we're gonna cut Where the feds gonna cut that seems to be changing as well. So your thoughts on the The macro picture here.

8:57So I'm not sure like the firing of Jerome Powell Necessarily he solves the US fiscal challenge, which is Rising interest rates on the long end of the Treasury curve So if you look at the 30 year treasury yield over time and Nick maybe you could pull this up while I'm talking but as of today we're at exactly 5 % on the 30 year and you can see that this 5 % yield which is what the market is demanding the United States government pay in order to be loaned the money to make the bill payments that the US government has to make every year is the highest it's been the borrowing company. cost is the highest it's been since going all the way back to 2007 as of today.

9:44And I think this is the real story for the United States. We have $36 trillion of debt. The average interest rate we're paying on that debt today is 3 .3%. That's the average of all the treasuries that the federal government has issued, the Treasury Department has issued, to borrow the money that it is using and has used to pay all its bills. and if you look at the 5 % number that's a 1 .7 % hike. At 3 .3%, which is the current average rate we're paying, across $36 trillion, we have a run rate interest expense, so just the money we're paying each year on the interest of the outstanding debt is $1 .2 trillion a year.

10:24And if this spikes up to 5 % from 3 .3, we're talking about nearly $2 trillion a year in interest expense. And that number is only going to get bigger as we borrow more money each year and the loan balance goes up. The outstanding debt goes up because we are still running a deficit. The government is spending more than it's making every year. So the crisis that America faces is a more profound fiscal crisis where the rates that we're having to pay are a function of what the market is telling us. The market does not want to loan the United States money over a 30 -year period for less than 5 % as of today.

11:00And so making adjustments to the short end of the treasury curve, making overnight loans cheaper, which is what the Fed can do, will stimulate the economy and make more money flow easily because now you'll be able to borrow money overnight to do stuff like build a building and then sell the building next week or next month or take out a car loan and pay it down and use your car to go drive for Uber and grow the economy and other things. So the theory is that if we can drive rates down on the short end of the curve, we'll grow the economy such that we'll be able to make those payments on the long end of the curve.

11:32But there comes a point where, again, you're only going to be able to move the market so much until the more important fiscal situations are going to be addressed, which is spending, taxation, and some of the other key policy issues. So I think what the market is saying is it's not as much about your own pal and frankly, getting rid of a prudent individual may be more challenging than it is beneficial when the real challenge is facing the United States need to be more heartily addressed. So I think that's my kind of take on this whole topic. I can't. Yeah, go ahead, Gavin. Build on it. So point number one, the 30 year has gone up since Powell started cutting rates.

12:09So that is just empirical proof that what David is saying, I think is right. And second, the deficit has been a feature of American politics, dating back to Ross perose in 1992 presidential run. But it never ended third party run. It is, it is a third party run. Here we go. Yes. But the deficit never really mattered because interest rates kept going down such that even has our debt grew. Interest expense has kind of a percentage of the government's budget stayed relatively low. So now that rates have gone up and don't seem like they're going down anytime soon, the deficit does matter and it really matters.

12:58And you can kind of run a couple of scenarios, but like pick your metric. If the deficit kind of continues at current levels and we were to refinance the debt at the prices that David was talking about, it's only a few years before spending on interest is significantly larger than spending on Medicare and Medicaid or Social Security or the military. So it picks up that you care about, but our current course in speed, it's in the not too distant future where interest expense is the biggest line item for the government. And that is not healthy. And that's why the deficit finally matters. It's just that rates are higher.

13:43But the great thing is, is there is a virtuous cycle here, as you close the deficit, rates should theoretically come down. And then those both feed on each other to kind of help the problem. And it is possible, there's no silver bullet here, but some combination of slowing government spending, extra revenue, and tariffs are effectively, we've never had a consumption tax here in America, which I think is a good thing because consumption taxes are very regressive. But the reality is, like, even when Obama controlled the House, the Senate, and was the most popular Democratic president of our lifetime, I don't think federal government tax receipts has a percentage of GDP got above 18, 19%.

14:30So that's kind of the ceiling for income taxes alone. And tariffs are really just a consumption tax that kind of incents domestic manufacturing. I mean, there's all sorts of reasons, they're bad ideas. David Ricardo, the theory of comparative advantage, 100 % correct, free trade is a good thing. But introducing some sort of a consumption tax, growing the economy a little bit faster through deregulation and slowing government spending. I think there is a way out of this for America, but it's important to find the way because the deficit finally does matter after really never mattering in my political lifetime.

15:12It is interesting. We've never had to worry about our debt. It was always manageable because it wasn't that large and even when it got large, it wasn't compared to GDP because the country was doing so well. We had the PC revolution, we had the internet boom. I mean, we've had boom after boom after boom in efficiency that we've led the world. And these companies like Google or Apple take over the world, and all those tax receipts and income comes into our country. That does sort of make you not look at it. I guess I haven't talked to you, Gavin, and not to make this super political, but both parties have proven that they have no interest historically and in the current one with cutting spending.

15:48It's just the nature of it. So we can sit here, whether you're a Biden -Fan Trump fan, put it all aside, both parties these love spending and they're not stopping. One of our friends has proposed, hey, maybe in the midterms, we have a couple of these house positions, couple senators, maybe we try to flip them and create a new party that cares about this issue. What are your thoughts, probably, on that? If a couple of more Joe mansion types were in the house, the Senate, could this country maybe start to make this the deciding issue? And maybe could we see some movement on the other two parties, some pressure on them by a third party, an America party perhaps?

16:29Yeah, well, I think a few things. I do think there is room for a much more centrist party in America. You know, the way the primaries were, it leads to more maybe extreme candidates than anyone would actually want, you know, being each party's candidate. So I think a third party would be helpful. And I think there's plenty of room for a party that is kind of fiscally conservative, reasonably socially liberal, pro -American energy production, all kinds of energy production, including solar, importantly. So I think there's room for that, and I think it is right that if you just target a few races, you can have a big impact.

17:22But I would just say, yeah, well, humbly, I think the American Party is a great idea. I just don't know that it is the highest and best use of Elon's talents at this moment in time with what's happening with AI. And just, you know, to the extent, Elon is a friend of the pod, But I just think staying focused AI Mars, that might be the highest and best use of his particular talents. 100 % hasn't that been the case for some time, Gavin, and anytime there's something, whether it's neural link or boring company or some other new project that there's these claims that this is a distraction away from the highest priority work that should be done.

18:06I mean, it's a political stuff unique. And then his point of view on the political stuff, just like it was with Twitter, is that it's existential to society and civilization and our ability to function and to do, you know, to achieve the progress that he aims to achieve in his core function. So obviously he is succeeding being the CEO of many different companies. But you know, I think a big part of what makes him kind of exceptional has a CEO is the perfectionism, the drive, and politics is not a game of perfection. It's a game of compromise. So I am sure if he sets his mind to the America party, that he will succeed, but I think there are other things for him to focus on.

18:50And the boring company, Neuralink, these are games of perfection. These are, this is about engineering. This is about solving a problem. It's not compromised and the art of the possible. So I think he would succeed. I just think that there are other things that maybe a higher calling for him. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, and the cost of being away from his businesses this last time around, as he said very publicly was severe. It was intense and he's had to really regroup. But we got this incredible news when Grog four came out. And I think we should maybe talk a little bit here about what that big prize is.

19:30the big prize, the biggest most, well, it's actually going to be an open question, free broke. I think the big prize is whoever wins general intelligence, super intelligence, or the biggest cluster, or the most power to power the biggest cluster, that power is general, super intelligence. So where do we sit on the language models today, Gavin, and Elon's recent, let's just call it what it is. I mean, incredibly dominant release of Grog IV. I don't think people expected that. They didn't expect him to be able to leap frog everybody. And let's be honest, people are leapfrogging each other every four to six months.

20:09So, I fully expect Gemini will leapfrog rock and opening high will have their time in the sun again as well. But this was pretty impressive, right? I'll say this is the biggest leapfrog we've seen in quite some time. And I think the benchmarks that matter are RKGI too and humanity's last exam. where it did in the case of Arcade GI2, it's called semi -private, which is important, because it means that some of the questions were held back, because the criticism of these models is they memorized the answer. And so Arcade GI2 had not seen the questions before, and it did roughly twice as good as the state of our Google OpenAI and Anthropic models.

20:55And then our Exceptional humans score 5 % on that. It scores in the 40s. So this is incredible progress. And I think it's worth mentioning, this model was trained on hopper. So this model is probably about as far as you can take the last generation of NVIDIA GPUs. The next models we see, you know, GROC 5, you know, 05 from OpenAI, whatever they're gonna call Jim, the next Jim and I, they will be trained on Blackwell. and I think that will be a really big step function. But I do think the ultimate price here is artificial superintelligence. Like I think artificial general intelligence will create a lot of economic value.

21:37But, you know, and maybe we will be able to work classes humans. But I think ASI artificial superintelligence is what is really exciting in terms of maybe, you know, being able to live longer, you know, really kind of fundamentally kind of change the fabric of our lives. Can you take a stab at explaining that difference in definition to the audience who they hear these terms and we kind of bundle them into either a Transcendent intelligence that we haven't seen before that we assume it's can't comprehend it goes beyond human intelligence or This is the smartest human on the planet and where we are right now in this journey because I think These terms are all getting muddled together and I think we have an interesting conversation here if we parse them I think artificial general intelligence I would define it as an AI that can take economically useful actions in a variety of domains and be better than the average human in most domains, all domains.

22:33But that's very different than super intelligence. Being able to draft a contract, that's not super intelligence, but it is useful. Being able to do a medical diagnosis, that's not super intelligence, but it is useful. being able to book my travel, so on and so forth. Superintelligence means exactly what you said that it is smarter than any human, but it has access to all of human knowledge. And I think one of the most interesting questions is what will the economic returns to superintelligence be and they're definitely unknowable because we have never seen superintelligence before? If his humans, we have kind of pushed the limits of physics, biology, chemistry, the laws of the universe, then maybe the economic returns to superintelligence won't be that high.

23:21But if superintelligence is curing cancer and inventing warp drives, then the returns are going to be really, really high and it's fundamentally unknowable. Yeah. Okay, so we're at general intelligence. Hey, your lawyer, your tax or accountants going to go much faster. They'll have a cold pilot. this is all going to be great for a business. Every business gets 10 % more efficient a month. Seems like a reasonable bogey, which means every seven, eight, nine months, every business is going to get twice as efficient at these kind of chores. Yeah. I think that I wouldn't say that's a reasonable bogey.

23:55I think that might be a little aggressive. It's the world, the world always, I think it's a Bill Gates quote, So the world always changes less than you expect over the next one, two, three years, but way more than you expect over 10 years. Just takes time for technologies to diffuse. You may be really nimble startups. We'll see some of the gains that you're talking about. But if we doubled productivity, that would be like an economic revolution. I mean, we're seeing it in programming. I'm sure. For sure. I think we'd say they're getting 5 % to 10 % better a month. better being defined as faster, shipping more code.

24:35Rule of 72, hey, you know, every year, at least you're gonna be twice as good. I think that actually seems to be happening with developers. I think it is happening with software. I think software is the first area where you've seen a real true kind of economic productivity impact. And generalized, a lot of companies are having incredible success with AI for customers, you know, support for sales. I think you see it more in startups than big companies. but the impact it has had on coding is untenable. Fribert, let me swing this around to you. We've got the super intelligence out there. We've got AGI out there.

25:11One of the things Gavin said was, by definition, you can't quantify the gains of super intelligence. That is the big price here. That's why people are putting this much money into these kind of data centers. Yeah, in your mind, it's not just the general intelligence. That would be the silver medal. People are going for the gold here, not general intelligence, super intelligence. Breakthrough is that we can't imagine. Am I, would you say that's a fair way to sum up the massive interest in investing in these projects? Yeah, I mean, I think there's something where everyone has identified this asymptotic return moment where if you get to that moment, your limitless in terms of the upside.

25:58Is there one winner? I don't know, I don't think so. But I would also kind of reframe this as being some binary condition that I think we're talking about it as being, quote, general intelligence, superintelligence, as being on a spectrum of leverage towards complexity. Complexity meaning like I can do a simple task, like instead of writing a letter and putting it in a non -volope and having some guy carry it to my mom, you know, and she gets the next day, I can digitally get her that message instantly over email. That creates an incredible amount of leverage and solves a lot of the complexity of getting her that communication from me.

26:41So if I as a human said, I would like to harness fusion power similar to what the sun uses to make energy. And I want to do that on Earth. Today, we're in, call it year 40 or 50, of a research cycle of humans trying to solve that particularly complex problem. It's a scientific problem, it's a discovery problem, it's an engineering problem. And this idea of superintelligence is that it could give us immense leverage in solving that complex problem that we otherwise maybe challenge to solve over decades or hundreds of years. or think about one day solving a problem that would take humans thousands of years to solve.

27:20I don't think that humans are limited in our ability to solve problems. I think we're limited in terms of time and what intelligence, what digital intelligence gives us is leverage on time so that we can now tackle ever more complex tasks that as you think about these tasks, the amount of time isn't just an incremental one year or two years, but it becomes a hundred years or maybe a thousand years. So this relates to, I think, projects around physics, around chemistry, around transportation, around biology, where we're probably fundamentally scratching the surface today, and where the superintelligence is an enormous leverage crater for us.

28:00And so I don't view it as some like species or race that independently persists in its own intentions, but it is a tool that provides leverage in a way that is orders of magnitude greater than the leverage we got from yesterday or digital tools and probably today's AI tools and probably tomorrow's general intelligence tools is kind of how I would think about it. And maybe it's because one model does so much stuff better than any human. You can call it super intelligence, but I think functionally, leverage into complexity is where this becomes super compelling for humans. And it's why I think we can and should be highly optimistic about living very long lives and traveling anywhere we want and having abundance in food and having abundance in resources and having abundance in recouping our time to do the things we wanna do instead of the things that we have to do today because we don't have access to this incredible leverage.

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28:54So, that's where I get kind of to help. I love it, Fred, I think it's a great way to look at it. But I want to go back to the silver medal here in this sort of competition. Gold being superintelligence, we start solving fusion and really big problems on deep research cycles and the velocity of that goes up. But just going back to the silver, everybody in the economy becomes, I don't know, single digit, it's more efficient every month and some amount every year. I've been trying to back of the envelope what I think the value is for a human being in the West in the modern world and what they should spend on AI per month.

29:33I've come up with a number of about $75, $150. Somewhere in that range is a no -brainer to spend on your AI per month as an individual working in the world. If that's the premise, right, I think there's a billion people in the developed world who could spend, let's call it a hundred a month, It's 1200 a year. It doesn't take a genius to figure out. This is a trillion dollars in revenue based on market cap. That's probably $10 trillion in market cap. And then we just have to back into the spending of what it costs to build this. You're doing these kind of calculations. I'm sure it's right. Yeah.

30:10And where this general back of the envelope that I've come up with in my mind for a mental model that there's a $10 trillion prize, a trillion dollars in revenue, just in the silver metal. Does that jive with the spending we're seeing today? I think people are putting in $10 billion worth of equipment a year across five different companies, right? Well, I think they're putting in quite a bit more than 10 billion per year. I'm each. No, no, no, no. You should go along doing $70 billion in the zero. Each of you have $70 billion. Yeah, is that $70 billion they're putting in this year are gonna be repeated for the next five years?

30:45So it'll be $350 billion. If you look at... If you, well, yeah, TBD, the future is always uncertain. But if there are economic returns to that, they will keep doing it for sure. Something interesting is AI has we discussed in previous all -ins extremely compute intensive. And it's just, at no point in my career as a tech investor, except the very beginning, which was kind of the end of the PC wars, which Dell won by being a low -cost producer, going direct, cutting out the working capital, the components in a PC depreciates. So if you have to go through a store where it sits on the shelves, you're at a big disadvantage from either a cost or quality perspective.

31:27But at no point in the 25 years of an attack investor as being the low cost producer mattered, being the low cost producer is really going to matter in AI. Because at some level, the amount of tokens you produce is intelligence because of test time compute, post -training reinforcement learning. And so if you can produce those tokens at a lower cost, you'll have a big advantage. You know, if for that $75 billion, or $30 billion, or $50 billion, your spending per year in CapEx, you can produce more tokens. That is a profound advantage. I don't like your calculations, like just has a back of the envelope, you know, kind of scratch.

32:09They seem reasonable to me. The trillion dollars a year in revenue because of AI seems quite reasonable when you frame it as a thousand dollars for a person to be Whatever 30 40 50 percent more efficient at work every year Yeah, and it's just you we could probably go back and look at kind of like the early days of You know cell phones and what were people willing to pay relative to disposable income your PC analogy would actually be the perfect one a PC at back in the air that error was what three four thousand dollars per person they lasted for three years So it was exactly a thousand years. But this is why creating such a delineated distinction between different types of AI, I think, is also like the equivalent of trying to create distinctions between other types of technology.

32:59So the automobile, the airplane, the telephone, the computer, all of these technologies are tools that created leverage, leverage on things that were otherwise complexity and reduce them down to simplicity. From a human perspective, pick up the phone, make a call instead of getting up on your horse and going across the country to deliver a message or using a computer to do a spreadsheet that calculated everything for you rather than calculated by hand and so on and so forth. Like all of these tools reduce complexity to simple tasks for humans and the ever increasing in complexity of what we can accomplish, what digital tools is continuing in this kind of era now.

33:42But that's why I think it's very similar, Jason. This is not some new concept. It's the continuation of human productivity. It's the continuation of the improvement of what humans can do, and what we can produce. And yes, there's a concept now that intelligence has become such a, like it's caught up to everything. And Gavin, I don't know if you think that there is this concept of some moment of singularity, but it does feel to me like there's just extraordinary leverage that's being created. That feels similar to it. Yeah. For sure that's true. I hope that's true. I hope your vision of it being a productivity and answer for humans is correct.

34:17You know, I do think, you know, people deep in AI do think there's some probability that it goes sideways. But I hope that you're right. But coming back to to J. Cal's, you know, $10 trillion prize and you know, relative to the market caps of the company's involved. It needs to be at least $10 trillion. Something that I think is interesting and relevant, particularly to GROC for being the best product, is the best product doesn't always win in technology. No, it's great to see them. Yeah, in sports, they say defense wins championships, and on the internet, distribution wins championships. and GROC4 has formidable competitors with lots of distribution and Google and Meta, if they get their software.

35:05Microsoft. And so from an industrial logic perspective, something that I think makes a lot of sense, particularly since OpenAI, but Johnny Ives hardware startup, which will place them into a competition with Apple at some point, is XAI and Apple are natural partners. There's been a lot of news about Apple thinking about buying perplexity or mix draw, but that's just a band -aid. Those companies don't get Apple what they need. And Apple's had an incredible partnership for many years now with Google that's generating tens of billions of dollars for both companies. And I think there is solid industrial logic for partnership.

35:41You could have Apple GROC, SafeGROC, whatever you want to call it, so that Apple feels comfortable. And that probably also helps GROC in the enterprise. and that it also helps both Apple and Google with this DOJ trial. And so I think in this incredibly high elo chess match that is being played between the leading labs, like that partnership makes a lot of sense for both of these. The first time I've heard anybody sort of make that natural connection, but you're right, Eric Schmidt and Steve Jobs at one point had this discussion, which was, hey, we've got search and you've got a browser now because the iPhone didn't have a browser, you know, they could have built their own search engine, they could have partnered with Yahoo, but they decided to make this long -term partnership with Google.

36:32And man, that dropped what, 20, 30 billion to the bottom line in Apple and cemented Google search franchise. Absolutely. And right now that deal is being litigated by the DOJ and the DOJ is considering remedies. And so if you bring on a really kind of effective credible AI provider, I think you could help both Google and Apple with their antitrust issues. And at the end of the day, you know, Google, they have Android and their Pixel phones, open AI's making hardware, anthropic is kind of a captive of Amazon. Meta is kind of a, you know, they're in a death match with Apple. So I think there is really sound logic for that partnership.

37:18I think it'd be good for both companies. Love to see it happen. It feels to me like the interface is going to be the browser. I know this sounds crazy, but I've been playing with the comment browser from complexity. Did you play with it yet, Gavin or look at some of the demos? Yeah. And what are your thoughts here because it's really and then Chatchy PT just launched a virtual desktop that pops up to go do your little web -based scrapes, agents, assignments, whatever you're going to call it, assignments, homework chores. Go to your chores. What are your thoughts on this modality? Yeah, the browser is part of distribution -winning championships.

38:00Apple S Safari, Google has Chrome, and if you're not going to strike a partnership with one of those distribution channels, you will eventually need to do your own browser, and you can extend that logic all the way. That's why they Google, they did a browser, they did a phone. I also do think the companions from GROC have been interesting to play with, and they certainly make it more engaging. That becomes the agent. It's a kind of incredible mind -blowing concept for that to be the interface. All right, listen, here we go. Calling in live. Got a breaking bestie coming on board here. David Sacks calling in live.

38:45I see the pal yellow paint and an ancient building. You must be in some sort of wing of the great White House. Is that correct, David? I am. Well, I'm actually not in the White House per se. I guess I'm on the White House grounds. We're in the Eisenhower Executive Office building. That's for my house. I can tell from that. We were in front of him. I've been here. Yeah, no, they said great things. And I checked my manager. And I found you tell I'll send you some photos. It's great. We'll know, but the calendar's wide open between now and you all in Summit, all in .com. Slashy out of yada yada. So the windows there, sacks, the windows wide open.

39:20And I'll see you in the cafeteria, I guess. Play your cards right on stage next week, Jake. You might get invited after the AI Summit we're doing. Yeah. Absolutely. the next one, D .C. next Wednesday, which has been publicly announced. So it's going to be exciting. David, you brought a friend today, maybe introduce your friend and tell us what you got done. What have you gotten done in the last week for the American people? They want to know, because you weren't here last week doing the pod. So you must have gotten something done for the American people. Let's hear it. Well, first of all, this is the ZAR behind the ZAR.

39:50Bo Hinds. He's the executive director of the president's working group on digital assets. So that's the working group that I chair, but he actually does all the work. He's the executive director, and he's here every day. And he's been working on crypto pretty much non -stop since we started the administration. And he's kind of the unsung hero within our operation here on these two bills that just passed the house, which are historic and quite momentous. So, Bob, welcome to the program. And maybe you could tell us a little bit about these bills and what they do for the American people. Yeah, well, first of all, David, you're too kind.

40:38We've had a blast working together. I mean, we connected back in transition, I think in late November. And we started mapping out a plan for this and to see it come to fruition this week is really like, it's unbelievable. The fact that we had the bipartisan votes we did today in the House is remarkable. It's unprecedented and it shows you that leaders on both sides of the aisle understand that our country has to be at the forefront of this technological development. But let's start with genius because I think genius is really the foundation for everything else we can build upon in this space. A lot of industry cares about market structure as do we and we want to see it done on the presence desk as well, but genius is unique because it really updates the payment rails inside of our current financial system.

41:21I mean the payment rails have been archaic and I've likened to the fact of the ways in which we've communicated have changed quite dramatically over the course of the last several decades. The ways in which we move money really haven't and we have the technology there and blockchain technology. So what we're doing here is we're fixing the plumbing of our financial system or securing US dollar dominance for decades to If you want to access our capital markets, you're going to have to use a dollar back stable. You're also providing a pathway for tokenization of public security is in 24, 7 markets.

41:52And the things that people have dreamed about for quite some time. This is a revolutionary piece of legislation. And the fact that this much bipartisan support is incredible to testament to President Trump's leadership. It's a testament to our fantastic AI and crypto ZAR, David's leadership. I mean, he's truly been the guiding star behind the ideology and what we're pushing here. And he has a phenomenal team as well. I mean, I'd be remiss not to thank Tracy as David Chief of Staff. I mean, the midst of all of the chaos to get this done. And like, there are so many steps to this. We had to beat the banking lobby to get a pass to the Senate.

42:26Then it moved over to the House in which we had to basically fight some members that really misinterpreted or misunderstood what this bill actually did. And the president stepped up, David stepped up in the enormous way. wouldn't have happened without either of them. And so now we have this bill heading to its desk tomorrow. And to pivot to market structure really briefly, this provides like the rules of the road for the exchanges, the brokers up on the space, they desperately need it. So that we can break down the wall between traditional financial institutions and these digital asset players.

42:58I think that's that's well underway. Obviously, you know, getting a vote as strong as they did in the House is indicative of what can happen in the Senate. But if we deliver on these two pieces of legislation, I mean, that's about 90 % of what needs to be done for crypto to make the U .S. and crypto a capital of the world, and, you know, it's just remarkable. I mean, we're over the moon. Okay, sacks. You got these two things over the finish line, congratulations on that. Lots of compromises you had to make, so I want to get into what were the compromises to get this done. Just to clarify one thing when you say finish line.

43:29So like Boa was saying, there's two bills. there's the Genius Act, which is the stablecoin legislation. And then there's a Clarity Act, which is market structures, basically all the other tokens besides stablecoins. Where we are is at both past the House today, but Genius has already passed the Senate. So it is going to the President's desk tomorrow, and it will become law. We're doing a bill signing with the President. By the time this pot is released, it will probably be law. I think we will have the signing. clarity started in the house and so it has passed the house and now it's going to the Senate and they start to do their hearings and markup on it and we expect that will happen over the next couple of months.

44:10The fact that chairman of the Senate Bank Committee, Tim Scott, has said that he wants to finish with the market structural legislation by the end of September. So if all goes well, then we could be looking at a second bill signing in say October. And like both said, that would be pretty much the crypto industry's wish list for having a clear legal framework in the United States for both table coins and other crypto tokens. So it's really pretty amazing. I mean, when I started this job, I'll just tell you one of my friends in Silicon Valley said that, you know, you may be able to get some AI things done, but you'll never get anything done on crypto.

44:52And the reason is because the entrenched interests are too powerful and they'll stop it. The banking lobby will stop it or Elizabeth Warren will stop it or just all the status quo players who could get disrupted by blockchain based technology will somehow find a way to stop it. And that didn't happen. Like we've actually now moved forward, geniuses about to become law. And I think clarity is looking like it's gonna have the votes in the Senate as well to become law. So it's really pretty amazing how much progress we've made in just six months. And like both said, this really comes down to President Trump's leadership.

45:28He made the promises during the campaign to prioritize crypto, to make the United States a crypto capital to plan it. And it was his negotiating skills and deal making that made this all happen. I mean, this past week has been a little bit of roller coaster. They were reports over the last couple of days that the whole thing was falling apart. And what had happened? There was a moment. I think there's been publicly reported, but I'll give you some color on it. There were 12 members of the House whose votes were necessary to advance the bill to this vote today. And a certain point, President Trump brought him into his office, the Oval Office, and worked out all the differences personally.

46:07And that's what put this bill over the top. If it wasn't for the president's direct involvement in action and understanding of the issues, he listened to all the concerns and he paid attention to the ones that were real and then rebutted the ones that weren't for wasn't for his direct involvement. We would not be here today. And he understands crypto. He's involved in it. It seems to have an understanding of the value of stablecoins for the US dollar. that seems to be a key motivator for this being bipartisan. You got twice as many Democrats as you thought you would get. Is that because people want to make sure the dollar supremacy gets locked in and stablecoins is a way to do that because you can't have a stablecoin unless it's backed by a dollar?

46:50Yeah, I mean, I have talked about on the show before. It shouldn't be that hard to sell regulation to Democrats. I mean, what we're doing here is providing a regulatory framework for the industry. They didn't have one before and that's why the number one stable coin player in the world right now is an offshore entity. They will have to come onshore as part of this bill in the next three years. So what we're doing here is creating regulatory framework, but the reason why it's substantially bipartisan is because the industry wants this regulation because they want the stability it gives them in terms of having that legal authorization.

47:25They want to make sure that if four years, eight years from now, 12 years from now, whatever, there's not some new Gary Gensler who comes in and turns the whole industry upside down because he doesn't like some aspect of what they're doing and he just starts prosecuting them, which is what the industry experienced over the past four years with Biden's war on crypto. So we, meaning that the Trump administration could fix the Gensler issues just with agency rulemaking and we're certainly on that path to do that. But if you want long -term stability that goes beyond just this administration, you have to get legislation You have to canonize it into law and that's why the industry was so interested in getting these bills passed So I think that's why you're seeing some bipartisanship here like both said I do think that there's a substantial number of Democrats to understand that this technology is the future and it's a positive thing for the US What could be bad about allowing digital dollars, which extends the dollar's dominance online so that it basically bolsters the dollar status as the world's reserve currency.

48:27Over time as we get challengers from bricks, for example, this is going to make the US dollar stronger and every time a dollar token trades somewhere in the world on a crypto wallet, there has to be a physical dollar in a US bank account invested in in a US Treasury and that creates demand for our debt, which is another positive thing. And there have been studies done that show that the results of this bill could be trillions of dollars of new demand for our debt, which is the only positive thing. And if you don't allow a legal way to do this, and you don't have a proper framework, you've been dancing around this person who has three years to get their act together, that's Tether, I'll say it, you can do a search for Tether controversies or shenanigans and you'll find plenty of them.

49:11I don't think it's fair to say they don't have their act together. I think they have their act together. It's just that they did not know how they'd be treated operating onshore in the US, under Gary Gensler and the Biden administration. And so they operated offshore. And what was happening under the last administration is that the last administration by creating all this uncertainty and doubt was driving all the innovation offshore. Okay, fine. They have assorted past. That's my statement, not yours. But now they have to clean up whatever messy stuff they have in their past. That's me saying it's not you.

49:46You can have your opinion. I'll take mine. But we're in agreement that if you don't have a framework, they would be doing even more things that were maybe off the reservation of my mind. Gavin, any thoughts here on crypto? I'm not sure you've participated in it in particularly because it didn't have a framework, yes? I would just say one, David, congratulations. Seems like an incredible achievement. to I try to invest in areas where I feel like I at least believe I have some sort of competitive advantage and it's not clear to me that I have any sort of competitive advantage in crypto. But three, David, I am curious for the stablecoins.

50:22Is it does the Genius Act limit them to dollar back to stablecoins? So it's not like you can create the stablecoin and then swap in something other than a dollar. Is that true? Well, I mean, anybody can create a stable coin that's backed by anything. And in fact, I think there are like Euroback stablecoins out there, for example, but nobody uses them. I think if you look at the stablecoin market share, it's like 98 % US dollars, 2 % Euros, because there's a flight to quality. If everyone wants to use the best one, right? And this is why it's in the interest of the United States to basically enable this technology to continue flourishing is because as the best fiat currency, we're the one that's going to get used the most.

51:05There's no reason to have multiple fiat stable points, not really. So this is going to accrue to the benefit of the United States. Jake, I'll just let me go back to something you said. So I don't necessarily agree with your criticisms of that particular company, but where I will agree is that this bill won't provide additional comfort for consumers and additional protection for consumers because now all the stablecoin companies will have to operate in the United States. They'll be subjected to quarterly audits and we will know that every stablecoin that's been issued is fully reserved or backed up by a dollar in a US bank account.

51:45And so therefore when a stablecoin holder eventually wants to cash out and they go to basically an offer ramp the money will actually be Now, I'm not saying that the money isn't there with any of the current providers. In fact, I think it is, but now consumers will have the additional protection and confidence to know that all these entities have been audited. They've passed these audits and they're regulated entities under U .S. law. And that creates confidence for the market and it's good for everybody. And it will spread the adoption of this stablecoin product. And if they don't, they can't participate in our market, right?

52:23So that's the good news here is, you know, if you choose to not go through those audits and you do a testations or other full gasey, full gasey stuff, offshore, you're not saying anybody's doing that, but people have, you know, then you just don't get to participate. And this is the great thing about having some basic rules of the road. We should talk a little bit here about infrastructure sacks. You were in Pittsburgh this week. There were some announcements. This was another bipartisan and when I think Shapiro was there, a bunch of investment going on there, maybe tell us a little bit about the progress made in Pittsburgh with regards to AI and infrastructure.

53:00This was an energy and innovation summit that was organized by the Pennsylvania Center Dave McCormick and his wife, Dean of Hal McCormick. And they did an amazing job bringing together all of these different companies and interests that have a stake in energy in Pennsylvania and the development of AI. And Pennsylvania is, I think it's number two energy -producing state in the US. It has tremendous amounts of natural gas. They feel like they can expand that. I think there's been a lot of fracking in the past there. For example, they even have nuclear westing houses there. And it makes sense to have the data centers near the power source, right?

53:36And so we know that these big AI data centers can be powered by other natural gas or nuclear. And so Pennsylvania just makes a lot of sense as a place to build this AI infrastructure. So this was a summit to announce new investment in Pennsylvania, something like $90 billion. President Trump was there to keynote the summit and talk about these investments. It's his policies towards energy that he started describing long ago. I mean, remember, he made the campaign promise of drill baby drill. He's been talking about the need for energy expansion in America for many years. and I think he was very far -sighted in seeing that energy is the basis for everything.

54:19It's a basis for AI. It's a basis for all other kinds of growth. So by promoting energy dominance, we also get AI dominance. And we've talked on this show before about how we're going to need that energy to power the electricity of all these do AI data centers. So this summit brought together all these different groups. And the thing I thought was really interesting, the thing I learned from it, was just how diverse the business interests are that are going to participate in this whole AI boot. It wasn't just big tech. Yes, Ruth Porat from Google was there. It's also small tech. There was hardware companies, there were robotics companies, but there were also these energy companies.

54:56There was nuclear, there was gas. The trade associations were there. It's construction, it's electricians, it's carpenters. And so there was a huge diverse array of different parts of the economy that are going to experience growth from this AI boom that's taking place is not just a Silicon Valley thing. So that was what I took away from Pittsburgh and it was really cool experience being that. There were two interesting notes as well. Hydro, I saw Google was investing in Hydro and upgrading some dams there. This is, I think Gavin, one of the great up shots of the AI boom is that the AI companies, whether it's meta or Google, they're so motivated that they'll actually go and upgrade the infrastructure.

55:39They'll invest in the small, modular, nuclear reactors that are coming and even gas turbines, obviously, natural gas as a major part of this as well. And you saw that up close and personal with the build out of classes. Yeah, Gavin. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, electrical production is fundamental to AI. If we did not significantly increase kind of domestic energy production and electricity generation, you know, we're already at a disadvantage to China, and I do think we want to close that kind of electrical generation gap as quickly as we can. You know, natural gas is great, nuclear is great, solar is great, batteries are great, we need it all.

56:22Yeah. All of it. And SACS, I saw your favorite governor, And our job Shapiro was there and he was being very positive about finding common ground on energy, economic development and saying, hey, this is like a great example of bipartisan efforts to collaborate. So, maybe you can talk a little bit about that because you had two great moments of collaboration between the Trump administration and the Democrats. This is good for the American people, yeah, both on the crypto project and on AI in Pennsylvania. I have never met Shapiro. I did see him there at the event, but I didn't see him on the stage.

56:58I don't know if he was part of the round table. So I don't know exactly what his status was, but what's interesting about Pennsylvania right now is that it's a state that's turning red. And so you see that federalman who's probably the most right wing member of the Democratic Party in the Senate, and Josh Shapiro obviously is tacking towards the center because they see the direction of travel in Pennsylvania. So yeah, I think you've got some centrist Democrats in that state. Yeah, working out pretty well. Josh DePiro, every two days, tweets something about how he's deregulated something, he's made it easier to do business.

57:34Like he is on the program. He seems like a sensible man. Yeah, 100%. I'll just give a final shout out to Bo here for all the work that he did on Genius. I mean, he's kind of the unsung hero. And Bo, how are you doing all this while finishing up your degree? When do you graduate from college? It looks like he's 20 years old. How old are you both? I have the baby face. I'm 29, turning 30 next month. Look at you. 29 in the White House, lead and working with David Sacks. This is a dream come true for you, huh? It is. I mean, David's been incredible. I've learned so much from him just the way they negotiate and the way that his brain works.

58:11It's been a blast just to be a part of it. But I have a 10 month old now. So I should have bags under my eyes from lack of sleep. But Jason, I'll make one more point for I jump off on the tether topic. The one thing that I think your viewers should know is, this year, it'll be the fourth largest purchase of US treasuries. And I think that's something that we should really contemplate. I agree with David Cinnamon on this. I'm excited to see what they do here in the US. I'm glad that you're going to be a part of our system under the regulatory regime. But still, everyone else. And I think that's a great thing for our country.

58:42It allows us to have control. That's great that you guys are back in the month because they've been banned so many times by other governments. I'm glad you got their act together. I'm gonna keep on those tether guys until they get their act together. So keep qualifying that you speak only for yourself. I only speak for myself. I've been following that tether story for a long time and I think it's great. I wanna make this point. I always know that our critics have never actually watched the pod when they start talking about the all -in point of view on something, right? As if there's a singular point of view from the all -in pod.

59:18like, you know, it's like the all -in -prose, whatever they think, something. When anyone who has watched the show knows that we've been fighting like cats and dogs for years, and there's four distinct points of view, and sometimes we agree, but there's almost always some disagreement. So we've disagreed about this issue. We also, Trump and I, as you know, are relentless supporters of Ukraine. We believe we should be giving them weapons and support. and David, you happen to disagree with me and our president on that, you've had a different position historically. So here we are. I'm gonna stay in my lane on that one.

59:55David, can we talk about the H20s or would you rather not? Because I feel like you have been like, let's go. So dead right about this. And I am, you know, it seems like the export, they're gonna get the licenses and that is 100 % the right decision for America. And I do give you credit for championing that. I'm happy to talk about why I think it's great, but we're just, you know, if you can. Can you frame it for a second for the audience, Gavin, what we're talking about here in Vidya, obviously was banned from selling their latest and greatest to China. And even the last generation, the H20s, and obviously that creates an opening for Huawei and other players to create competitive products as opposed to using the standards built here in America.

1:00:40Yeah. I think, I mean, I think you said it well, But first of all, it's not the latest and greatest. The latest and greatest. Right. I don't think we're going to let the latest. It's not in the last gen. It's a deprecated version of the last generation. Right. Yeah. Remnants. It's a less powerful version of the hopper chip and now they're on to black well. So it's anyway, the Gavin King's point. Yeah, it is, it's many, many years behind. But while it's many years behind the kind of state of the art here in America, it is I think kind of devilishly clever because it's called two years ahead of kind of the chips from Huawei.

1:01:16And so it kind of gives America an advantage while preventing China from developing kind of a domestic and video alternative. And the real threat is because China, they do have more electricity. They can do things that we cannot do here in America. You know, the blackwell racks are exquisitely designed to be as power efficient as possible. So if you don't care about power, you can make very different kind of design decisions. Huawei has something called the Cloud Matrix 384, which uses fiber optics instead of copper to link the chips together. And what's not nearly as power efficient has the Blackwell NVL72.

1:01:54They have all the power they need. And so I think it's a smart decision for America to sell this chip that gives America to advantage in AI and keeps China from developing kind of their own domestic alternatives, which could eventually kind of challenge, you know, Nvidia, AMD, you know, other kind of American AI accelerator champions globally. We don't want that to happen. So I thought it was a mistake when they banned the chips and I'm really happy and think it's really good for America if that is being reversed and kudos to you David. that Gowney said so well, I don't think I have anything to add.

1:02:35Can I just say what they are crypto? You guys can put it in or not, but I started as interesting, David. I was always worried about stablecoins as a risk to the dollar, but I think you make a very good point that when you are the dominant currency, they entrench the dominance. And I just should not thought of them that way. Well, I think what's gonna happen with these dollar -based stablecoins is they'll start being used all over the world. Let's say that you're in a country, is a developing world country where the Fiat currency is not trusted. And now all of a sudden you can transact in dollars using a wallet on a phone.

1:03:12You know, and the merchant also has a wallet on a phone and now you can just transact in dollars. You could see a large portion of these economies dollarizing from the bottom up. Because again, once you have your choice of Fiat currencies from stablecoin, why wouldn't you just use the best one? And that's what I think is really interesting. So I do think it extends the dollar's dominance internationally into the ongoing realm. Yeah, and previously people were basing their stable coins on a basket of assets, some treasuries, some real estate investments because they were seeking yield, Gavin. So they would buy real estate or short term long term treasuries, they might put equities into it that might keep something cash.

1:03:53And none of that was known. And so that's where this big fear came, Hey, these things are getting pretty big. There's obviously demand to use this concept of a stable coin, but what if there's a run on the stable coins? That was always the big fear with various players, was what if everybody wants to withdraw their stable coins? Are there enough dollars for liquid assets in there? That's where I think certain players have maybe moved the asset allocation and in order to be in the US market, Tether's going to have to be 100 % in Treasury. They're not going to be allowed to be saying real estate.

1:04:27There was a concept that maybe they were buying Chinese paper for real estate back in the day and people were concerned about that. This cleans all that up and they have an easy path. But you can't make interest on it. That's actually a very interesting portion of this. That will have to come in a later time so the banks don't lose anything here. Just clarify at one point on that. One of the concessions I was made to community banks is not to have an interest feature because the community banks were worried that this new stablecoin industry would put them out of business. I think that that fear was wildly overblown on their part.

1:05:03I don't think that's what's going to happen remotely. But when you have a new technology like this in a various establish industry, you can see why maybe they'd be afraid. But the bill allows for all sorts of marketing promotions, rebates, that kind of stuff. So maybe it's not called interest, but But there are mechanisms to create, let's say, rewards for stablecoin holders. So it's not as black and white as just, oh, there's nothing a stablecoin issuer can do to attract or incentivize or reward one of their holders. It isn't dimension they could compete on. So maybe if I were to buy $10 ,000 worth of a stablecoin, I could get mileage like points or maybe a load in gift card or something like that.

1:05:47Maybe I don't know. Yeah, we have to interpret the language, but the mechanism is there. Okay, well there you have it folks. All right, reporting from our capital, David Sacks or Zarr of AI and cryptocurrency. I'll see you next Wednesday in DC for a very important summit. All right, besties. I'm here at the White House with Senator Bill Haggardy from Tennessee, the principal author of the Genius Act. He, I would say along with the leadership president Trump, are the reason why this bill happened. and we have stablecoin legislation just signed into law by President Trump. Bill, you did a phenomenal job.

1:06:22I got to observe this whole process and you really played the critical role. You're a very skillful legislator, crafting delicate compromises. You were kind of the glue that held the whole thing together. Congratulations on getting this done. Is this your first bill that you've gotten done as a senator? It is. I've served in the Senate for over four years, but we were in the minority for the past four years. So this is the first opportunity since the Senate was taken by the Republicans to actually drive legislation through. And the fact that we had the House Representative of the Senate and the White House made this possible, it was just a threshold concern.

1:06:56We worked so hard, as you know, to retake the Senate in 2024, to retake the White House in 2024 and hold on to the House Representative at work. And that's the only thing that's enabled us to deliver this type of meaningful legislation. And I say this too, it's been a great team that has done this. I'm going to be the author of the legislation, but the leadership that you've brought to bear from the White House coming in, you know, donating your time from the private sector, working as a volunteer here, but making certain that the leadership and the vision is present here at the executive branch.

1:07:24You've been absolutely great. And that vision, I think, is carried forward into the Senate, the House, more and more people are understanding this and catching on. And I think what we've done today is launch the catalyst for what's going to make America the crypto capital of the world. Yeah, it's been really amazing and interesting for me to watch this whole process. They say that you shouldn't watch legislation or sausages being made. But earlier in the week, the media was reporting that this bill was dead because there were a dozen holdouts and President Trump made calls late into the night.

1:07:55He gathered people in the Oval Office. He could jolt, he twisted arms and he also persuaded and he got us over the finish line. It's pretty incredible. Well, I think the founding fathers made it actually quite difficult to legislate for a reason. But it is difficult. It's taken months upon months to get to this point. And the legislation, the genius act has been killed a couple of times in the media. Liz with Warren declared Big Free early on that she killed the bill. That didn't happen. She didn't have the juice to do it. But there have been many many attempts. That's a big deal. Because until now, the crypto community has been living under a Liz with Warren's reign of terror.

1:08:29I mean, she basically was calling the shots during the Biden administration on crypto. And I was there when the Genius Act passed the Senate, I was up in the bleachers or whatever. And she was not happy. I mean, there were photos of her and she did not like losing. There's a fundamental reason for this, David, because Elizabeth Warren and her crowd want to see a simple bank digital currency. What they want is control of our transactions. They want the ability. They're the ones that wanted to get to a 600 -dollar threshold for your Venmo transactions reporting everything. They want the ability to do choke.

1:09:013 .0. And if you think about it, they had visibility in our transactions, the ability to centralize and control them. They could control our lives. It may be okay for the Chinese Communist Party, but that's not going to work here in America. And this legislation put the final nail in the coffin to that. It's really amazing that you got it through. And to get this past, the Senate, you had to have 60 votes, right? Because reconciliation, you only need 50 plus one, but for a regular order, I guess, to get past the potential for a filibuster, you need 60. That's exactly right. That's exactly right.

1:09:31So what demands have that put on you in terms of getting Democrat votes? Because there are Republicans have what, 53? Yes. So we didn't have all the Republicans who have lost Republicans, but what enabled me to get the other nine Democrats to come on board was really an education process. Because at its core, this shouldn't be a partisan issue. This is about taking America's payment system in the 21st century. This is about making our nation more competitive. This is about expanding demand for the U .S. Treasury securities that we issue. this is about the dominance of the U .S. dollar. It's hard not to like it, but I think there's a partisan bent here in Washington that's so strong that their objective is just to keep Republicans or Donald Trump or David Sacks from getting a win here and through education and through listening.

1:10:16And frankly, I don't think it's my legislative skills. I think it's the business skills that I brought to the legislative branch. I think it's through the business skills and the ability to negotiate that we've actually gotten to this point today. So tell us about that. So before this, you're a business man, then you became ambassador of Japan. You met President Trump, you told me you want to run for Senator, he told the story up at the speech. He said that you had learned Japanese in like six months as ambassador of Japan. It was a little longer than that. Okay, there's a piece of the story missing because I started my career at a place called the Boston Consulting Group.

1:10:49And they sent me to Tokyo for three years back in the late 80s or early 90s. That's when I learned the language. And to go back as US ambassador of Japan President Trump in 2017, the honor of a lifetime. I can tell you, representing the greatest nation in the world, any place in the world is an honor. But particularly in a region like that that has so many strategic initiatives that are underway right now, you think about this. Japan has more US military station there than any place else in the world. Japan is one of the toughest environments in the world. If you think about the neighborhood that they're in, North Korea, Russia, China, right at your doorstep.

1:11:24The time that I spent as ambassador really helped me dig in deeply in terms of the national security issues that our nation confronts and those that are on lies confront. At the same time, we did two trade deals with Japan. Nobody thought it could be done. And we were able to navigate that with James and Greer working right beside Bob Blindhizer. I loved working with those guys and we got two great trade deals done. James and his back now as the US trade representative, and I'm very optimistic that we're going to see more trade flores. President Trump knows how to do this. I've been with him in the trade negotiations.

1:11:53He knows exactly how to navigate this. And I'm looking forward to great results from our trade negotiations as well. Excellent. And so we're only six months into this administration. It feels like so much has happened. So much has been done. I mean, we just had the, what I'm thinking, the beautiful bill. Now we have this legislation. What's next in your view? What do you think is going to happen? What's happening right now in the United States Senate? We just put through a recisions package, It's fared a little bit over $9 billion. That's a small amount. It's a large amount of money, of course, but it's a small amount relative to the entire budget.

1:12:25And the Democrats have had just gone apoplectic over this. Any effort to cut back on spending, somehow they've got to be against that. They're only for spending, and we're trying to bring physical sanity back to America. So the focus is going to be to continue to find opportunities to basically legislate what has been founded, Dove. The other activities well beyond Dove, It was every department had every agency is looking for ways to streamline regulations and to cut costs and to operate more efficiently. And I've got to believe there are tremendous opportunities there and many billions more dollars that'll come out of the budget as a result.

1:12:58But we've gone into a fairly partisan mode right now. And I think it's gonna be tough for the next little while. While we're in this sort of partisan gap, I think what we should be doing is focusing on market structure for digital assets. And we're working on that. I just talked to some of my colleagues in the house today about how we're gonna marshal that forward. I'm gonna look forward to your leadership there as well and many people in the industry. But just so everyone knows what that is. So market structure is the legal framework. It's the rules for all the crypto tokens that are not stablecoins.

1:13:25So the genius act just passed. I gave the legal framework for stablecoins. Now we got market structure for all the other tokens. And it deals with questions like what's a crypto security, what's a currency, what's a commodity, who regulates those things. Just providing clarity, that's the name of the bill. That's a good thing. Market participants know what the rules are because the last four years under Gensro they're basically prosecuted without knowing how to abide. They called it regulation by enforcement. You don't know what the rules are but they just launched an enforcement proceeding against.

1:13:56President Trump was funny today because he looked at the audience. He said, I guess half of you were being prosecuted here about a year ago by the brews administration. I think it's going to change. He was all fired today. I mean, people should go back and watch. I mean, he spoke off the cuff basically like he normally does for 20 minutes and it was very funny. But the reason why he said that is when we did the crypto summit at the White House back in March, the, you know, the Winkle Voss brothers, Tyler and Cameron were there. And they told the story about how a year before they thought it would be more likely that that'd be in the big house in the White House.

1:14:34That it was like the fact that they were at the White House was because that's the way it was looking. I mean they were dealing with so much unfair law fair. But I have it. We've moved past that. So thank you for your leadership on this. And by the way, on the decisions, I know that this is the one issue that I think all of the hosts, the four hosts of the All In Pod, all agree on is that deficit spending is out of control. I think we can do to try and reign it in and have more fiscal sanity is appreciated. Even Calcanis can agree with that one. He's sort of like the token, uh, live on the podcast.

1:15:08We're gonna continue to work along those lanes. That the big, beautiful bill is doing, it's already into toward growth stimulation, right? Everything that we can do to stimulate more capital investment in the United States is embodied in the tax loss part of that bill. So with the growth coming out of the big, beautiful bill, and then if we continue to go through the cuts with decisions, I'm very optimistic that we're gonna get back on the right path. That's the objective. That's the goal. Meanwhile, uh, taking us into the 21st century with our payments, with the digital assets, we're gonna continue to work along those lanes as well, and I appreciate your leadership in that regard.

1:15:38Well, and we appreciate you, I think, the state of Tennessee, where by the way, I grew up, I grew up in Memphis. It's very lucky to have you as our senator. The Republican Party is really lucky to have you at the Senate, it's very lucky to have you to have someone with your business background to have your skills who has now gotten through this first piece of legislation through, again, this wasn't a budget bill, it took 60 votes in the Senate. I mean, when's the last time that even happened? I mean, it's been years. It's, I heard the Senate I heard they hadn't passed a bill in my 10 years, basically, because it takes 60 years.

1:16:07It's been over 10 years to get out of this in a bank even. One of my friends wrote me yesterday and he said, I didn't think you can get the 10 commandments passed out of the United States. So congratulations. And I don't want to take the credit for it because it's been a wonderful team, as I said, your leadership in the White House and the executive branch, our friends in the House representatives, my great staff led by Luke Pettit, then just a terrific job. Luke Pettit was amazing. We were close with him. Both of you, great job. Yeah, who's the director of the crypto council who was on the show earlier today.

1:16:34Tyler was wonderful at Treasury. Yeah, Tyler Williams at Treasury who was Secretary of Bessons, staff person. The staff you'll never get the credit they deserve for all the work they do, right? But Tyler Luke and Bo were amazing through this process. And in the Senate too, we've had great leadership. Our chairman for the Senate Bank and Committee is Tim Scott. He's been a true proponent of this. Cynthia Lomas is very focused on digital assets. It was very supportive of me as she cheers the digital assets subcommittee or banking committee. So we've had great support in the Senate and I think it's gonna continue to grow both sides of the aisle.

1:17:08Of, Cynthia Lomas, she's been great. I've met with her many times. Tim Scott's been great. I understand that Kristen Gillibrand, the Democrat Senator, was working with. She brought in a lot of Democrat votes. I think you got 18. You know, the great thing about Kristen too. She was a Wall Street lawyer at Davisville. She understands the markets and have her level of technical expertise was a huge asset and she was able to really convey to the Democrats side. That we were here trying to get the right thing done for the country. This was not a part of the effort. This was something that really has aimed at growth, leadership, technology leadership, and frankly dollar dominance that we all should be for.

1:17:45amazing. So I think it's really amazing that we got this done when you compare this to where we were a year ago. I mean it was nonstop against regulation by enforcement's basically regulation through prosecution, law fair and the crypto community was being driven offshore. There wouldn't have been a crypto community in the United States and then President Trump won the election and now thanks to the efforts of Bill and others. It's law. The the Genius Act is now law. We have legal firm for stable points and Marcus structures next the clarity bill is next. We're going to try and do that by October.

1:18:17So it's really amazing that this is a you know I thought that working for President Trump be a once -in -lifetime opportunity because he's a president who really wants to get things done and that's what's happening. He's really been amazing. So thank you Bill for being here today. Thank you.

1:18:43I'm going on a leash! What? What?

1:18:50Besties are gone! That's my dog taking a wish to drive away. So, what? Oh, man, I'm the cashier. We need the Eiffel Tower. We should all just get a room and just have one big hug. Because they're all just like this like sexual tension that they just need to release something. What? You're the bee! What? You're the bee! You're a thief. You're a thief. We need to get merch these aren't ours. I'm going on leave.

1:19:23I'm going on leave.

From the publisher

(0:00) The Besties welcome Gavin Baker!

(1:51) Markets: Pricing in tariffs, Trump vs. Powell, solving the debt crisis

(19:24) The $10 trillion AGI prize, what artificial general intelligence and superintelligence looks like in the economy

(38:33) Sacks and Bo Hines join to discuss the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act passing the House this week, and what it means for crypto in the US

(52:42) AI Infrastructure: $90B in new investments announced, Nvidia H20 export restrictions lifted

(1:06:06) Sacks interviews Senator Bill Hagerty on the passing of the GENIUS Act

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Referenced in the show:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-16/trump-likely-to-fire-powell-soon-white-house-official-says

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/16/us/politics/trump-powell-firing-letter.html

https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september?tid=1752872350388

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/15/cpi-inflation-report-june-2025.html

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30Y

https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-remove-jerome-powell

https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-fed-chair?tid=1752854752131

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/07/15/congress/house-gop-crypto-bills-trump-00455645

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/us/politics/trump-ai-pittsburgh-speech.html

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