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Podcast Episode Summary: Better Offline - Part Two: NVIDIA Isn't Enron - So What Is It?
Episode Overview
- Podcast Title: Better Offline
- Episode Title: Part Two: NVIDIA Isn't Enron - So What Is It?
- Host: Ed Zitron
- Context: This is the second part of a three-part series examining NVIDIA, its rise, and its comparison to Enron.
- Main Themes: Growth desperation in tech, NVIDIA's GPU market dynamics, and historical context through the lens of Enron's collapse.
Key Points
Historical Context
Enron
- Enron's Background:
- Founded in 1985 from the merger of Houston Natural Gas and InterNorth.
- Renowned for its corporate culture and accounting fraud, leading to its dramatic collapse in 2001.
- Key Characteristics of Enron:
- Encouraged a culture of risk-taking that often led to unethical practices.
- Utilized mark-to-market accounting to inflate company profits and misrepresent asset values.
- Executives like Ken Lay and Jeff Skilling were central to the company’s operations and its eventual downfall.
Comparison to NVIDIA
- NVIDIA’s Position:
- Dominates the GPU market, crucial for AI development, with its products being integral to current technological demands.
- Significant growth in valuation, attributed to its monopolistic practices and innovative technology (e.g., CUDA).
- Distinction from Enron:
- NVIDIA's operations, while aggressive in seeking growth, do not exhibit the same level of fraudulent misrepresentation as Enron.
- The narrative is shaped by NVIDIA’s legitimate market dominance rather than deceptive accounting practices.
Growth-at-all-Costs Mentality
- Tech Industry Dynamics:
- Big tech companies (Google, Amazon, Meta) are increasingly investing in NVIDIA GPUs to remain competitive in the AI space.
- This has led to a significant market reliance on NVIDIA products, raising concerns about the sustainability of such growth.
- Potential Risks:
- There is skepticism regarding the justification for massive spending on GPUs, especially given the limits of AI scalability.
- The episode reflects on the business environment where companies may invest heavily in AI not out of necessity, but to appear progressive and relevant.
Cultural Reflections
- Corporate Culture:
- Enron's culture of cutting corners and unethical behavior serves as a cautionary tale for current tech giants.
- The episode draws parallels to present-day practices in tech that prioritize growth over ethical considerations.
Key Arguments
- Enron's Legacy:
- The podcast emphasizes why Enron remains an important reference point for discussions around corporate ethics and accountability.
- Current Trends in Tech:
- While NVIDIA is not Enron, there is a lingering sense of unease regarding the methodologies employed by tech companies today in their quest for growth.
- Future Outlook:
- The episode concludes with a call to question whether the current trajectory of tech investment, particularly in GPUs for AI, is sustainable or a bubble waiting to burst.
Conclusion
- The episode presents a nuanced exploration of NVIDIA’s current market position relative to the infamous Enron scandal, underlining the importance of ethical practices in business. It warns of the dangers of a growth-at-all-costs mindset that could lead to severe repercussions in the tech industry.
Additional Resources
- Support the Podcast: Listeners are encouraged to subscribe to Ed Zitron's premium newsletter for deeper insights.
- Community Engagement: Join the conversation on Reddit or Discord linked in the episode description.
Host’s Contact
- Ed Zitron's Email: ez@betteroffline.com
- Follow Ed Zitron on Social Media: [Twitter](https://twitter.com/edzitron) | [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/edzitron)
Call to Action Listeners are encouraged to reflect on the implications of corporate behavior in tech and consider supporting ethical business practices.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea or OSA in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snored loudly or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability, and concentration issues, it may be due to OSA. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at don'tsleep on osa.com.
0:39This information is provided by Lilly, a medicine company. Running a business is hard enough. Don't make it harder with a dozen apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. That's software overload. Odo is the all-in-one platform that replaces them all. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, HR. Fully integrated, easy to use, and built to grow with your business. Thousands have already made the switch. Why not you? Try Odo for free at O-D-O-O dot com. That's Odo dot com. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously.
1:17On public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 % year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and lets you backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's.
1:55Go to public.com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash podcast. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokerage services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Wells Fargo announced a new$20 million program in 2025, teaming up with nonprofits to support small business owners.
2:30That's how Wells Fargo is helping strengthen small businesses and communities. Wells Fargo, the bank of doing. Learn more at wellsfargo.com slash say do. Call Zone Media. Hello and welcome to Better Offline, I'm Ed Zitron and I'm nothing like Enron.
3:01Now this is the second episode in the Nvidia Enron series and to give you a recap, a few weeks ago a document from Nvidia leaked where the company denied that it was anything like Enron at all. but what was Enron now some of you might know this some of you might not but I think it's time to remind everyone what Enron was and what Enron did and why Enron was so I don't know if we should say special but it sure was Enron now the collapse of Enron wasn't just in retrospect a large business that ultimately failed if that's all it was it wouldn't come on the same space in our heads as other failures like WorldCom or Nortel which I'll actually get to later I talked about WorldCom last episode, both of whom were similarly considered giants in their fields, by the way.
3:45It's also not just about the fact that Enron failed because of proven business and accounting fraud. WorldCom entered bankruptcy due to similar circumstances, though, rather than being liquidated. And this is kind of a mindfuck, so forgive me. It was acquired as part of Verizon's acquisition of MCI, the name of a company that had previously merged with WorldCom that WorldCom renamed itself to after bankruptcy. This era sucked. And unlike Enron, WorldCom isn't the subject of multiple films and even a Broadway production. And my editor saw the UK tour of that, and apparently it was pretty good. You ask Matt Hughes if you want to know more.
4:19And it's also not the size of Enron that made its downfall so intriguing. Nor, for that matter, is it the fact that Enron did a lot of legally and ethically dubious stuff to bring about its downfall. No, what makes Enron special is the sheer gravity of its fuckery, the rotten culture at the heart of the company that encouraged said malfeasance and the creative ways Enron's leaders crafted an image of success around what was, at its heart, a big fat dog of a company. Enron was born in 1985 out on the foundations of two older, much less interesting businesses. The first, Houston Natural Gas, HNG, started life as a utility provider, pumping natural gas from the oil fields of Texas to customers throughout the region, before later exiting the industry to focus on other opportunities.
5:02The other, InterNorth, was based in Omaha, Nebraska, and was in the same business, Pipelines. In the mid-1980s, H &G was the subject of a hostile takeover from Coastal Corporation, which until 2001, operated a chain of refineries and gas stations throughout much of the US mainland. Unable to fend it off by itself, H &G merged with InterNorth, with the combined corporation renamed Enron. The CEO of this new entity was called Ken Lay, an economist by trade who spent most of his career in the energy sector, who also enjoyed deep political connections with the Bush family. He co-chaired George H.W.
5:37Bush's failed 1992 re-election campaign and allowed Enron's corporate jet to ferry Bush Sr. and Barbara Bush back and forth to Washington. Center for Public Integrity Director Charles Lewis said that there was, and I quote, no company in America closer to George W. Bush, then Enron. George W. Bush, and I mean the second one, even had a nickname for Leigh, Kenny Boy. Anyway, in 1987, Enron hired McKinsey, the world's most evil management consultancy firm, to help the company create a futures market for natural gas. What that means isn't particularly important to the story, but essentially a futures contract is where a company agrees to buy or sell an asset in the future at a fixed price.
6:16It's a way of hedging against risk, whether that be from something like price or currency fluctuations or from default. If you're buying oil in dollars, for example, buying a futures contract for oil to be delivered in six months' time at a predetermined price means that if your currency weakens against the dollar, your costs won't spiral. That bit isn't terribly important. What does matter is while working with McKinsey, Lay met someone named Jeff Skilling, a young engineer turned consultant who impressed the company's CEO deeply. So much so that Lay decided to poach him from McKinsey in 1990 and give him the role of chairman and CEO of Enron Finance Group.
6:51Oh, by the way, Enron had a bunch of subsidiaries and some had their own CEOs and boards. I mention this because you may be a bit confused as Lei was CEO of Enron and Skilling was CEO of Enron Finance Group. In essence, it's a bit like how Sam Altman is CEO of OpenAI and Fiji Simo is the CEO of Applications. That bit isn't important, but I just want to be as explicit as possible. I don't think OpenAI as Enron either. At least I hope. Anyway, Skilling continued to impress Lay, who gave him greater and greater responsibility, eventually crowning him chief operating officer of Enron itself. With Skilling in a key leadership position, he was able to shape the organization's culture.
7:29He appreciated those who took risks, even if those risks, when viewed with impartial eyes, were deemed reckless or even criminal. He introduced the practice of stack ranking, also known as Rankin Yang, to Enron, which had previously been pioneered by Jack Welch, a general electric, and you should listen to the shareholder supremacy from last year if you want to hear what I think about that redacted guy. Here, employees were graded on a scale, and those at the bottom of the scale were terminated. Managers had to place at least 10%, other reports say closer to 15 % of employees in the lowest bracket, which created an almost Darwinian culture and a drive to succeed that matched him.
8:05Staffers worked brutal hours. They cut corners. they did some really, really dodgy shit. None of this bothered skilling in the slightest. Now, you might be asking, how dodgy, Ed? Well, in 2000 and 2001, California suffered a series of electricity blackouts. This shouldn't have happened. California's total energy demand at the time was 28 gigawatts, and its production capacity was 45 gigawatts. California also shares a transmission grid with other states, and for what it's worth, the Canadian provinces of Alberta and British Columbia, as well as part of Baja California and Mexico, meaning that in the event of a shortage, it could simply draw capacity from elsewhere.
8:39There's plenty to go around. So how did that happen? Well, remember, Enron traded electricity like a commodity, and as a result, it was incentivized to get the highest possible price for that commodity. So it took power plants offline during peak hours and exported power to other states where there was real domestic demand. But how does a company like Enron shut down a power station? Simple, it just asked. In one taped phone conversation released after the company's collapse, an Enron employee called Bill called an official at a Las Vegas power company, California shares the same grid with Nevada, and asked him to, and I quote, get a little creative and come up with a reason to go down.
9:18Anything you want to do over there? Any cleaning? Anything like that? Very cool. The power crisis had dramatic consequences for the people of California who faced power outages and price hikes, for Governor Gray Davis, who was recalled by voters and later replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger, for PG &E, which entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy that year, and for Southern California Edison, which was pushed to the brink of bankruptcy as a result. This kind of stuff could only happen in an organization whose culture actively rewarded being a fucking arsehole. In fact, Skilling was seemingly determined to elevate the dodgiest of characters to the highest positions within the company, and few were more ethically dubious than Andy Fastow, who Skilling mentored like a protege, who would later become Enron's chief financial officer.
10:02And you gotta wonder, how did the CFO hired by Jeff Skilling do? Well, even before vaulting to the top of Enron's nasty little empire, Fastha was able to shape its accounting practices, with the company adopting mark-to-market accounting practices in 1991. Now, mark-to-market sounds complicated, but it's actually real simple. When listing assets on a balance sheet, you don't use the acquisition cost, like how you paid for it, but rather the fair market value of an asset. So if I buy a baseball card for a dollar and I see that it's currently selling for 10 bucks on eBay, I'd say that asset is worth 10 bucks, not the dollar I paid for it, even though I haven't actually sold it yet.
10:40Nor do I know if anyone's interested. Now, this sounds simple, maybe even reasonable, but the problem is that the way you determine the value of an asset matters. And mark-to-market accounting allows companies and individuals to exercise some, what's the word, creativity. Sure, for publicly traded companies where the price of a share is verifiable and open knowledge, it's not too bad. But for assets with limited liquidity, limited buyers, or where the price has to be engineered somehow, you have a lot of latitude for fraud. Now let's go back to that baseball card example. How do you know it's actually worth$10 and not$1?
11:14What is the fair value of something you can't check on eBay, but what somebody told me in person it's worth? What's to stop me from lying and saying that the card is worth a hundred dollars or a thousand dollars well other than the fact that i'd be committing fraud now what if i have 10 one dollar baseball cards and i give my friend ten dollars and i tell him buy one of my baseball cards using that ten dollar bill that i just handed him and this allows me to say that i've now realized a nine dollar profit on one of my one dollar baseball cards and my other cards are now because i just did that worth$90 and not$9.
11:51Now, what if I use that valuation, that phony valuation of my remaining cards to get a$50 loan using those cards as collateral, even though the collateral itself isn't worth even one-fifth of the value of the loan? You get the idea.
12:19One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. Before you know it, you are drowning in software instead of growing your business. This is where Odoo comes in. Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one, fully integrated platform that handles everything. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, HR, and more. No more app overload. No more juggling logins. Just one seamless system that makes work easier. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business, whether you are just starting out or already scaling up.
12:56Plus, it's easy to use, customizable, and designed to streamline every process, so you can focus on what really matters, running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you? Try Odoo for free at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 % year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work.
13:41It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and lets you backtest it against the S &P 500. Then, you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities. Completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash podcast. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokerage services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. Member FINRA SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC. SEC registered advisor. Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool.
14:17Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Hey, audiobook lovers. This week on the podcast, I'm sitting down with musician, producer, and walking encyclopedia, Questlove. We're talking about Mark Ronson's memoir, Night People, How to Be a DJ in 90s New York City. All right, like we talked about before, Mark Ronson found sanctuary in the DJ booth. What's a tool or piece of equipment in the studio or on stage that gives you the most control? So I have two microphones on stage. We have the microphone that you hear as the audience.
14:54Then we have a second microphone in which we communicate with each other. I feel like that second microphone kind of saved all of our friendships. No band likes each other after 20 years or 25 years. The Beatles broke up in seven and a half years, and we're going on 35. Listen to Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
15:49Ulta Beauty. Gifting happens here.
16:01While a lot of things people can do to alter the mark-to-market value of an asset are illegal and would be covered under generic fraud laws, it doesn't change the fact that mark-to-market accounting allows for some shenanigans to take place. Another trait of mark-to-market accounting, as employed by Enron is that it would count all the long-term potential revenue from a deal as quarterly revenue, even if that revenue would be delivered over the course of a decades-long contract, or if the contract would be terminated before its intended expiration date. It would also realize potential revenue as actual revenue, even before money changed hands and when the conclusion of the deal wasn't a certainty.
16:38For example, in 1999, Enron sold a stake in four different electricity-generating barges in Nigeria. They're basically floating power stations. and sold it to Merrill Lynch, which allowed the company to register$12 million in profit. One little problem. That sale didn't actually happen, though that didn't stop Enron from selling pieces to Merrill Lynch, which I'm not kidding. Merrill Lynch then sold to a special purpose vehicle called LJM2. You'll never guess who owned that. It was controlled by Andrew Fastow. Yep, remember that guy? You're going to hear that name again. Although the Merrill Lynch bankers who participated in the deal were eventually convicted of fraud and conspiracy charges, long after the collapse of Enron, of course.
17:19Their convictions were later quashed on appeal. Thank you, government. But still, for a moment, it gave a jolt to Enron's quarterly earnings. Anyway, Enron was incredibly creative when it came to how it valued assets. Take, for example, fiber optic cables. As the dot-com bubble swelled, Enron saw an opportunity and wanted to be able to trade and control the supply of bandwidth, just like it did with other more conventional commodities like oil and gas. It built, bought, and leased fiber optic cables throughout the country, and then, using exaggerated estimates of their value and potential long-term revenue, released glowing financial reports that made the company look a lot more healthy and successful than it actually was or ever would be.
17:57Quick digression here. One of the funniest ironies of Enron is that it was, in many ways, ahead of its time. When most people were still connecting to the internet through screeching 56k dial-up modems, it saw a future in edge and cloud computing, even if said terms didn't exist at the time, and streaming video. Here's a funny one. In 2000, it entered into a 20-year deal with Blockbuster Video to allow customers to stream films and TV shows through Enron's Fiber Network, something that would take Netflix another decade to realize it's a product. Now, there wasn't really much of a market for it at the time, because broadband was pretty rare back then, nor was it necessarily technologically possible, but it was such a fun idea.
18:36People really liked it. It was a good idea. Everyone wanted it to happen. Not really, though. Anyway, the deal collapsed after a year, but that didn't stop Enron's creative accountants from booking the deal based on its projected future revenue as a profitable venture. Mark-to-market accounting, baby. You gotta love it. We love it, don't we, folks? All right, I'll stop doing the impression. Still, it's hilarious to think about a future world in which Blockbuster and Enron stuck it out and the former didn't collapse around the time of the global financial crisis. Enron also loved making special purpose vehicles that existed either to generate revenue that didn't exist or to hold toxic assets that would otherwise need to be disclosed, with Enron then using its holdings in said entities to boost its balance sheet.
19:17One, Whitewing, was created and capitalized by Enron and an outside investor and pretty much exclusively bought assets from Enron, which allowed the company to recognize sales and profits on its balance sheets even when they were fundamentally contrived. Another set of entities known as LJM, named after the first initial of Andy Fastow's wife and two children, which I mentioned earlier, did the same thing, allowing the company to hide risky or failing investments, to limit its perceived debt, and to generate artificial profits and revenues. LJM, too, was creatively the second version of this idea.
19:49Even though the assets that LJM held were ultimately dogshit, the distance that LJM provided, combined with Enron's use of mark-to-market accounting, allowed the company to turn a multi-billion collective failure into a resounding and on-paper profitable triumph. So how did this happen? How did it go on for so long? Well, first, Enron was at its peak worth$70 billion. Its fail would be a failure for its investors and shareholders, and nobody, besides the press that is, wanted to ask tough questions. Remember when they did that? Anyway, it had auditors, but they were paid handsomely, turning a blind eye to the criminal malfeasance at the heart of Enron.
20:24Auditor Arthur Anderson surrendered its license in 2002, bringing an end to the company, and resulting in 85 ,000 employees losing their jobs. Well, look, it's not so much it only turned a blind eye as much as it turned on a big paper shredder. Shredding tons, and I'm actually being literal, that's a measure of weight and not figuratively, of documents as Enron started to implode, a crime for which it was later convicted of obstruction of justice. But I've already talked about Enron's culture, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Enron's highest performers and its leadership received hefty bonuses in company equity, motivating them to keep the charade going.
21:06Enron's pension scheme, I add, was basically entirely Enron stock, and employees were regularly encouraged to buy more, with Kenneth Lay telling employees weeks before the company's collapse that, and I quote, the company is fundamentally sound and that they should hang on to their stock. NVIDIA did use the word fundamentally. They use that, but it's not, NVIDIA is not Enron. It's not, it's really different. They're not doing this. I swear to God, I just don't love the language. Anyway, additionally, per the terms of the Enron pension plan, employees were prevented from shifting their holdings into other pension funds or other investments until they turned 50.
21:43When the company collapsed, those people lost everything, even those who didn't know about Enron's criminality. George Maddox, a retired former Enron employee, had his entire retirement tied up in 14 ,000 Enron shares worth at the time more than$1.3 million. He was forced to spend his golden years making ends meet by mowing pastures and living in a run-down East Texas farmhouse. The US government brought criminal charges against Enron's top leadership. Ken Lay was convicted of four counts of fraud and making false statements, but died on a skiing vacation to Aspen before sentencing. May he burn in hell.
22:16Maybe Ronald Reagan and him could get in the hot tub together. The hot tub's got lava in him. Not feeling particularly creative on that one. Anyway, Jeff Skilling was convicted of 24 counts of fraud and conspiracy and sentenced to 24 years in jail. This was, of course, reduced in 2013 on appeal to 14 years, and he was released to a halfway house in 2018 and then freed in 2019. He's since then tried to re-enter the energy sector, with one venture combining energy trading and, I kid you not blockchain technology although nothing really came of him i want to take this moment to give a big shout out to quartz which when covering skilling's attempted comeback had this opening line and i quote jeffrey skilling knows a thing or two about blocks and chains get his ass andy fastell pled guilty to two counts one of manipulation of financial statements and one of self-dealing and received 10 years in prison this was as ever later reduced to six years including two years of probation in part because he cooperated with the investigations against other Enron executives.
23:16He's now a public speaker and a tech investor in a company, an AI company, called Keen Corp. His wife, Leah, who also worked at Enron, received 12 months for conspiracy to commit wire fraud and money laundering and for submitting false tax returns. She was released from custody in 2005. Enron's implosion was entirely self-inflicted and horrifyingly, painfully criminal. Yet, it had plenty of collateral damage to the US economy, to those companies that lent it money, to its employees who lost their jobs and their life savings and their retirements, and to those employees at the companies most entangled with Enron, like those at auditing firm Arthur Anderson.
23:52This isn't unique among corporate failures. Wellcom had some dodgy accounting practices. Nortel too. Both companies failed, both companies wrecked the lives of their employees, and these failures had systemic economic consequences, especially in Canada, where Nortel, at its peak, accounted for one-third of the market cap of all companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The reason why Enron remains captured in our imagination, and why NVIDIA is so vociferously opposed to being compared to it, is the extent to which Enron manipulated reality to appear stronger and more successful than it was, and how long it was able to get away with it.
24:24While we may have forgotten the memory of Enron, it happened over two decades ago after all, we haven't forgotten the instincts that it gave us. It's why our noses Twitch when we see special purpose vehicles being used to buy GPUs, and while we gag when we see mark-to-market accounting. It's entirely possible, I genuinely believe this, that everything in video is doing is above board. Really, it's great. That doesn't do anything to help the deep bit of dread in my stomach, though.
Read the full transcript
25:02a business is hard enough. So why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. Before you know it, you're drowning in software instead of growing your business. This is where Odoo comes in. Odoo is the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one, fully integrated platform that handles everything. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, HR, and more. No more app overload. No more juggling logins. Just one seamless system that makes work easier. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.
25:39It's built to grow with your business, whether you are just starting out or already scaling up. Plus, it's easy to use, customizable, and designed to streamline every process. So you can focus on what really matters, running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try Odoo for free at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com.
26:27type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and lets you backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash podcast. Paid for by public investing, brokerage services, by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, SIPC, advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC registered advisor.
27:03Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Hey, audiobook lovers. This week on the podcast, I'm sitting down with musician, producer, and walking encyclopedia, Questlove. We're talking about Mark Ronson's memoir, Our Night People, How to Be a DJ in 90s New York City. All right, like we talked about before, Mark Ronson found Sanctuary in the DJ booth. What's a tool or piece of equipment in the studio or on stage that gives you the most control?
27:37So I have two microphones on stage. We have the microphone that you hear as the audience. Then we have a second microphone in which we communicate with each other. I feel like that second microphone kind of saved all of our friendships. No band likes each other after 20 years or 25 years. The Beatles broke up in seven and a half years, and we're going on 35. Listen to Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
28:37Ulta Beauty. Gifting happens here.
28:49Now let's remind ourselves of what NVIDIA is. It's a company that previously focused on gaming-oriented GPUs, graphics processing units, but thanks to a stroke of forethought, managed to be the company that sells the shovels for the current AI bubble. Its data center GPUs are expensive. They all rely on a technology that NVIDIA created two decades ago called CUDA, which no other competitor has an alternative to, or at least one with the maturity and depth and functionality. And no other company shares its focus on this arena, at least not one with its history. These GPUs are expensive, and thanks to NVIDIA's near-monopoly status, it's seen its share price grow by over 1 ,350 % at the time of writing in the past five years.
29:30It's now the most valuable company in the world by market capitalization, and it's insanely, insanely profitable. If you're looking at this through the cold, unthinking lens of late-stage capitalism, this all sounds really good. I've basically described a company that has an essential monopoly and the one thing required for a high growth, if we're talking exclusively about capex spending, industry to ever exist. Moreover, that monopoly is all but assured, thanks to NVIDIA's CUDA moat, its first mover advantage, and its actual capacities and capabilities of the products itself, on top of the massive shipping and hardware operation at Bill, thereby allowing the company to charge a pretty penny to its customers.
30:06And those customers? Well, if we temporarily forget about the likes of Nebius and CoreWeave, and how I wish I could forget about CoreWeave permanently, we're talking about the biggest companies on the planet, ones that surely will have no problems paying their bills. But my worry is a little simpler, and more direct, because I'm worried about the certainty that these purchases are being made for the right or most prudent of reasons. Back in February 2023, I put out the rot economy and how everything in tech has become oriented around growth at all cost, even if it meant making products harder to use as a means of increasing user engagement or funneling them towards more profitable parts of an app.
30:47Back in June 2024, I wrote and did an episode about the rotcom bubble and my greater theory that the tech industry has run out of hypergrowth ideas. In simple terms, big tech, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, but also a number of other companies, no longer have a next big thing and jumped on AI out of an abundance of desperation. Shit, look at Oracle. This company started off by selling databases and ERP systems to big companies and then trapping said companies by making it really, really difficult to migrate to cheaper and better solutions and then bleeding said companies with onerous licensing terms, including some where you're paid by the number of CPU cores that you use in the application.
31:23fucking Oracle. It doesn't do anything new or exciting or impressive, even when presented with the opportunity to do things that are useful or innovative, like when it bought some microsystems, it turns away. I imagine that deep down, Oracle recognizes that its current model just isn't viable long-term, and so it needed something else. When you haven't thought about innovation ever, it's kind of hard to start, and thus, generative AI probably seemed like a godsend to Larry Ellison, who founded Oracle, and despite not being CEO, still creeps around the building like the Grinch. I'll get to Oracle in a bit, but we also live in an era where nobody knows what big tech CEOs actually do other than make nearly$100 million a year, meaning that somebody like Satya Nadella can get called a thoughtful leader with striking humility for pushing co-pilot AI up every arsehole in Microsoft's product experience, even Notepad, a place that no human being would want it and accelerating capital expenditures and 28 billion dollars across the entirety of fiscal year 2023 to 34.9 billion dollars in its last quarter in simpler terms spending money makes a ceo look busy and at a time when there were no other potential growth avenues left ai was a convenient way to make everybody look busy every department can have an ai strategy and every useless fucking manager and executive can yell a service now ceo bill McDermott did back in 2022.
32:49Let me make it clear to everybody here, everything you do, AI, AI, AI, AI, AI. That's a real goddamn quote. I should also add that ChatGPT was the first real meaningful hit that the American tech industry has produced in a long, long time. The last being, if I'm honest, Uber, and that's if we allow successful yet not particularly good businesses into the pile. I guess you could say Instagram stories, but that was ripped off from TikTok. No, sorry, snapchat christ they they nicked reels from tiktok i hate this fucking industry now look if we're assholes about it and we insist on things like profitability and sustainability us tech hasn't done so great snowflake runs at a loss snap runs at a loss and while uber has turned things around somewhat it hardly created the next cloud computing or smartphone industry putting aside finances the last major hit was probably venmo or zelle and maybe if i'm feeling generous smart speakers like Amazon Echo or Apple HomePod, but those, I think Echo and Alexa has lost Amazon billions.
33:52Much like Uber, none of these were the next big thing, which would be fine, except big tech needs more growth forever right now, you pig. To be clear, I'm not saying there's been no innovation, just nothing at the scale of smartphones and cloud computing. This is why Google, Amazon, and Meta all do 20 different things, although rarely for any length of time, with these things often having a shelf life shorter than strawberries left on your counter, because the rot economy's growth at all costs mindset exists only to please the markets, and the markets demand growth. ChatGPT was different. Not only did it do something new, it also did it in a way that was relatively easy to get people to try and see the potential of.
34:29It was also really easy to convince people that it would become something bigger and better, because that's what tech does. To quote Bender and Hannah, AI is a marketing term, A squishy way of evoking futuristic visions of autonomous computers that could do anything and everything for us. And because both customers and analysts had been primed to believe and trust the tech industry, everybody believed that whatever ChatGPT was would be the next big thing. And said next big thing was powered by large language models which required GPUs sold by one goddamn company, NVIDIA. AI became a very useful thing to do.
35:01If a company wanted to seem futuristic and attract investors, it could now integrate AI. If a hyperscaler wanted to seem enterprising and like it was building in the future, it could buy a bunch of GPUs or invest in its own silicon, as Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta have done, though Meta to only some extent, and of course, shove AI in every imaginable crevice of an app. investors could invest in ai companies retail investors regular people could invest in ai stocks tech reporters could write about something new and do access journalism even harder linkedin perverts could write long screeds about ai the markets could become obsessed with ai and yeah you can kind of see how things got out of control everybody now had something to do an excuse to do an ai thing regardless of whether it made sense because everybody else was doing it you didn't need to justify it anymore.
35:50Everybody was doing AI. ChatGPT quickly became one of the most popular websites on the internet, all while OpenAI burned billions of dollars. And because the media effectively published every single thought that Sam Altman had, such as that GPT-4 would automate away some jobs and create others, and that he was a little bit scared of it, AI as a technology and an idea and a symbolic stock trope and a marketing tool and a myth became so powerful that it could do anything, replace anyone, be worth anything, even the future of your company. Amongst the hype, there was an assumption related to scaling laws, summarized well by Charlie Meyer, who was on the podcast a few months ago.
36:25You should go listen to his episode. In 2020, one of the most important papers in the development of AI was published, Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models, which came from a group at OpenAI. The paper showed, with just a few charts, incredibly compelling evidence that increasing the size of large language models would increase their performance. This paper was a large driver in the creation of GPT-3 and today's LLM revolution, and caused the movements of trillions of dollars in the stock market. In simple terms, the paper suggested that shoving more training data and using more compute power would exponentially increase the ability of a model to do stuff, and to make a model that did more stuff, you needed more GPUs and more data centers.
37:02Did it matter that there was compelling evidence in 2022, and gotta say it, Gary Marcus was right, that there were limits to scaling laws and that they would hit the point of diminishing returns? Nah. Amidst all of this, NVIDIA has sold over$200 billion of GPUs since the beginning of 2023, becoming the largest company on the stock market and trading at over$170 as of writing this sentence, only a few years after being worth less than$20 a share. You see, Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft all wanted to be part of the future, so they sunk a lot of money into NVIDIA, making up 42 % of its revenue in its fiscal year 2025.
37:38Though there are some arguments about how much exactly big tech's billowing capital expenditures are spent on GPUs, some estimate somewhere between 41 % to more than 50 % of a data sent as capex is spent on GPUs. If you're wondering what the payoff is, well, you're in good company. I estimate that there's only around$61 billion in total generative AI revenue, and that includes every hyperscaler in NeoCloud. Large language models are limited, AI agents are a pipe dream and simply do not work, AI-powered products are unreliable, and coding LLMs make developers slower, and the cost of inference, the way in which a model produces its output, keeps going up.
38:14The thing is, what comes up tends to have a habit of coming down, and I'm increasingly of the opinion that a return to a terra firma is coming sooner rather than later. But that's for the next episode. Join me then.
38:34thank you for listening to better offline the editor and composer of the better offline theme song is matt osowski you can check out more of his music and audio projects at matt osowski.com m-a-t-t-o-s-o-w-s-k-i.com you can email me at easy at better offline.com or visit better offline.com to find more podcast links. And of course, my newsletter. I also really recommend you go to chat.wheresyoured.at to visit the discord and go to r slash better offline to check out our Reddit. Thank you so much for listening. Better offline is a production of cool zone media. For more from cool zone media, visit our website, coolzone media.com or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
39:40This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea or OSA in adults with obesity? They may be happening to you without you knowing. If anyone has ever said you snored loudly or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability, and concentration issues, it may be due to OSA. OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at don'tsleep on osa.com. This information is provided by Lilly, a medicine company.
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From the publisher
In part two of this week's three-part NVIDIA series, Ed Zitron walks you through the history of Enron, why it differs from NVIDIA, and why growth-desperation led big tech to waste hundreds of billions of dollars on GPUs.
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