Prediction Markets with Rebecca Ungarino and Nick Devor

28:01If you invest in a company based on its fundamentals, you're going to lose money probably. It's like Oracle is 12 % up right now, I think. This is going out in a week, so who knows where it will be. Even though they had like negative$24 billion cash flow, they're obviously misleading people when it comes to their CapEx. because they're going to spend only 50 billion this year and they've already spent over 40. I'm not really sure that worked. But if you, because the market and the hedge funds have decided there's something else they'd like to do, you cannot join that. So what are your other options?

28:36You've got, I don't know, betting on the slap fights, the literal slap competition. You've got sports gambling. And you've got this big impenetrable thing at the stock market. But then you've got these seemingly honest, easy bets of, oh, I can just bet on an outcome. That's fair. Yeah. Unless the outcome is full of asterisks. Yes, correct. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think there was some research recently. I don't know how I should. I saw this on Twitter, disclaimer. Right. That like only 32.5 % of prediction market customers are profitable. Right. So two thirds of players are losers. I mean, that's gambling.

29:18That's gambling. You know, so yeah, I think, yeah, we, when we get into this, I think Gen Z, especially there's a certain amount of financial nihilism, just general, like dread vis-a-vis the future. And how am I ever going to have a house and et cetera, et cetera. And, oh, here's poly market. They let me bet on, you know, whether Trump will say China in his speech. And how many times he'll say it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. this could be a fun thing that i could make money onto it they're like you could make my you could pay for your coffee with it yes and yes i will admit my favorite couchy story is the one that i'm sure both of you have read where it's uh they tried to hire a 15 year old streamer and i quote your brother legal team confirmed that we can't work with miners rn kind of sad dbh the rn and the tbh are really the cherry on top it's really like that's your brother it really just brings it all together it really brings it together but also right you need to watch running man because all of this just reminds me of that movie just like just like the this i get your slop in a bowl and bet on whether trump will will say a different is called nuclear the n-word like how many times will he do that and he's done that many times by the way not joking yeah which is yet another dystopian thing yes it just it feels like the actual solution here would be more regulation of banks and also getting rid of all of this i think sports gambling's i i know you probably can't come out on this directly but i think sports gambling is like one of the most noxious things because living in vegas gambling is everywhere but it's also very very regulated if you yes indeed if you look anything close to 21 they will come and card you yeah and they will chase you around like they will follow you i'm coming up on 40 and they still id me sometimes I'm beautiful I know but yeah you look you don't look a day over you look youthful 20 and 364 days but nevertheless it's you it's because they know that gambling is scary and that it's addictive and that a win can make you think every other win will happen except now it's just you can do it anywhere you can just do it everything every phone you've got every device you can gamble ah there are Instagram accounts yes that just there's this one with a guy who just dresses up like an old man and has a beer full of bush fridge full of bush light and it's just him being like and he's on a gambling site that is extremely extremely bleak and i think it's evil it's yeah and i think that like it is prompting like in the more traditional like so in banking and kind of like i think it is prompting these bigger questions and kind of existential questions about like yeah what is the difference you know in what we're doing and and kind of like what is like what are we doing here i mean you Again, it's like it is going back to the regulation.

32:09That is playing out right now, and that is why it's such an interesting conversation where you do have the Trump administration rolling back so many aspects of banking regulation, separate from prediction. Forget prediction markets. What kind of things? One example is for years, banks have tried to get regulators to go a little bit, make the stress testing process. Again, super important. What is the stress testing process? Where regulators every year will kind of simulate different disaster scenarios. Again, totally hypothetical. Employment shoots up. Stock market crashes. These hypothetical scenarios.

32:45And they test the banks. And they test the banks. Currently, with the amount of capital that a Wells Fargo or a J.P. Morgan has, can you weather this? Can you withstand? They always do very well. With caveats, obviously. But they come and say, okay, that could be a weakness. That could be a weakness. Right. Private credit has also introduced an interesting, you know, kind of wrinkle here because it is, by definition, there is, you know, kind of this hidden leverage and regulators have talked about that. But they're not banks, so they don't get stressed tested. But they're not banks, correct. And so that's a whole other fascinating, you know, kind of ecosystem where it's like, okay, you are a bank, I'm going to stress test you.

33:19You are lending, you, bank, are Ed Bank, okay, incorporated. You are going to lend to private credit lender. But when you lend to there, there's not as much tracking what your borrower is lending to. So you can see it is hard to track where that money is going. And I read the other day, I think it was middle of last year, the Boston Fed, I think it was, said that 14 % of large banks' loans went to private credit and private equity. Love it! It's a massive chunk of loan growth overall. And I think that like when you go to – so when you take prediction markets and you kind of take like the current regulatory backdrop, it's like – it adds an interesting wrinkle because it's like, okay, by and large, a lot of the financial regulators are like, yes, we want to be – like the bottom line is they are rolling back like traditional guardrails, you know, like around the banks.

34:14But now prediction markets like, okay, and that is currently being like, you know, kind of – that is being sorted out right now. So we'll see. And like the CFTC, I want to say, is like the only regulator. Again, it's like the most relevant one here that's like come out with like some guidance, but it remains to be seen. So, you know, we'll see kind of how the administration handles that. I just I feel like right now is personal opinion not held by my guests. I think that there is a massive regulatory problem with lying because right now my favorite example is OpenAI. So OpenAI signed a deal with AMD, except they didn't.

34:52It was just an agreement without any formal contract. AMD has not increased guidance. Oracle,$300 billion deal with OpenAI. Can't afford to serve it. Don't have the, has the raised debt. Data centers aren't built. SK Hynix and OpenAI, Samsung and OpenAI signed a big deal to take 40 % of RAM. Except they didn't. It was a letter of intent. All of these stocks have popped off of these deals. Nothing happened. It's very obvious there was never anything official. There should be regulation, because people in the audience might hear this and say, that's not stock manipulation. But what is? If that isn't, and people could say, oh, it's marketing.

35:34Oh, we used Weezer words. But it's like, it feels like things like this will lead to outcomes that lose a lot of money. There's a lot of people, a lot of money. and unless we do something soon it's only going to get worse because every time someone like this is not stopped someone else does it they're just like fuck it why would we bother yeah that will lead into the prediction markets as well because you could just start saying whatever yeah but that's actually that is the biggest thing with prediction you can just say stuff now there's like a over the the the extent to which uh the stock market is reliant on like increasingly complicated bits of semantics yes it's like we've just never we're at the semantic indexes.

36:16The asterisk and asterisk and asterisk. A letter of intent. Agreement. Consideration too. They're all deals. They're deals. They're agreements. But we've not changed guidance. We've not put any money. No one's actually doing anything. But, you know, it's just... Lest we forget a memorandum of understanding. Memorandum of understanding. MOUs are the best. I love a good MOU. They mean nothing. They mean absolutely nothing. Everyone, I love an MOU.

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40:01It's frustrating because I am not a particularly sophisticated trader. I may have only recently started putting money in the S &P 500 after a period of not. But it's, and that's in an index, by the way, it's... Very responsible. Very responsible. Very responsible. And loves the 80-20 portfolio. We love diversification. Here's the thing. My worry is that it's very obvious how you manipulate these markets. and without regulations to stop people, it's only going to get more ridiculous. You're just going to get CEOs that say things to create a market, possibly creating them themselves. And if they're a private company, that's not illegal, I believe.

40:42Yeah. So when we talk about like mention markets are a good example of where I think a lot of the manipulation concerns are. So a mention market is like, okay, during this podcast, will Ed say fuck wit? we're like we're betting on that like that the odds are high you just did it I've resolved the fuck with bet I won yeah so like will Caroline Levitt at the next White House press conference say the word China these are mentioned markets so we're literally just betting on the words that will come out of someone's mouth so a very high profile example of this is Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. Yeah.

41:28You know, at the end of an earnings call, there was a poly market mentioned market for what will Brian Armstrong say on the earnings call? And at the end, you know, literally like right before the like moderator was like, thanks for joining everyone. Like right before he's like, oh, someone just handed me the poly market for what I'm going to say. So I'll just get through all these, you know, Bitcoin Web3 just like went down the list and like paid all of them off. Right. So he has come out and said that he was not trading on that market or involved in any way. But like we are opening ourselves up to like new ways that we can like manipulate markets.

42:07Insider trade. And like when we create a market for everything and everything can become a bet, more people than ever can become insider traders because there's just so much more things to insider trade on. Well, here's a question. How much is necessary to create a market? How much money does it require? This is a good question. So Polymarket PR has told me that the primary criteria for if a market can be created, because they field suggestions from their users, the primary criteria is if there's evidence of demand for the yes side and the no side. Right. That's it. What is evidence in this case?

42:53If there's activity on Twitter about it, if people in the Discord are like, please, I want to bet on this. It seems pretty ad hoc. I don't have much more detail than that because they did not give me more detail than that. I imagine they don't need to. So it's not money? I mean, it's just like evidence of trading demand, right? And then they'll open it and then people can start betting on it. But you don't have to. They don't have to be like, all right, you all have$500. ready to go on this. There's nothing like that. As long as they can see that people will want to trade on it, they will make it.

43:28Makes sense. And that kind of goes to the question of just thinly regulated versus not. Or thinly traded, excuse me, versus not. It goes to the question of when banks look at something, they're like, we can't make a market out of trading on this one sports game. This one thing that has$200 ,000 in volume. There's just no way that a huge bank is ever going to like yeah you just open yourself up to so much so it goes back to that yeah i mean also i guess banks i didn't even think of that but yeah banks wouldn't want to touch it because there's not enough money in it i think it's when i think of like a thinly traded like stock yeah exactly it just goes back to liquidity and like the volatility and like if banks can find a way to make money on something legally they will oh yeah yeah they will and and so it's i you know You could see a world in which, and I'm not saying there is no regulatory framework that would allow this.

44:21No, I'm not saying that because in the future, you could see who knows what that could look like. And so the banks are just like, okay, we're going to wait for the regulators to say something. But it comes to a question of also internal enforcement. Banks all have very clear rules around insider trading. Someone has non-public information. if you trade on that you will be fired like you know that's very like well-worn you know kind of like but now with prediction markets how do you enforce that it is hard and so banks are like actively and again I'm just like talking about banks specifically you could also talk about like tech companies healthcare companies whatever but banks where like we have talked about this a lot like being this nexus of the markets and they do have a lot of information that you know okay that's different from someone in another sector like how does a compliance team enforce that that is an open like question right now that banks are like actively figuring out and it's a really interesting question of compliance and enforcement you know internally it's just it feels like the walls are breaking down around everything because before we do the prep call for this we talk about analysts for example and i named someone i'm not going to name people on this just for professional reasons but people know who i mean we're very professional we're all very professional i never say fuck um But there are these, I named someone and you were like, that's not an analyst.

45:42And it's becoming obvious that because they're on CNBC, they're on Bloomberg. It's like, you've got these people pretending to be analysts. You've got these entities like private credit pretending to be banks. You've got prediction markets pretending to be stock. It just feels like the walls are being torn down. And I know that this is going to, people aren't going to like this. I don't think most people should have access to the stock market or gambling. I think that they are dangerous. or at least they should be regulated in such a way that it's less dangerous, not just open season and then every third guy on Twitter is like, I'm an analyst, mate, you are a poster.

46:18Well, that's the interesting question. And I mean, I couldn't help but think in that moment of journalism, right? I mean, obviously, okay, there are journalists and writers and then there are people who are not held to the same standards and that's a whole other conversation. But with analysts, yeah, totally. I mean, like, it's – there are very clear kind of like you are regulated by FINRA, which is the self-regulated – you know, they're a regulator and they regulate the brokerage industry and like any, quote, sell-side analyst. So, like, you know, an analyst who is, again, held to these standards, like industry standards of disclosures and like conflict of interest and things like that.

46:54Like that is, quote, an analyst. Yeah, you can be an – of course, there are like other ways. but like that you can be an analyst and that is legitimate in like another sector or like another like on the buy side. Okay, fine. That's all legitimate. But there are certain standards that you're held to if you're like, for example, you know, like a FINRA analyst and like that's not a capital A analyst and that's not always clear to like a viewer of CMBC. So this is actually a question. What is a sell side analyst? Because I have listeners who have asked this before and I realized I haven't really defined it myself very well and you would know.

47:25For sure. You're at a brokerage, something like a brokerage inside a big bank, or you're just like a standalone kind of brokerage, a Morgan Stanley. Great, great example. They have their investment bank, and that's like, okay, they have their bankers over here and on the other side. And it's not this simple, but like on the other side, you have the sell side. And that is these analysts who are writing research reports. They are held to FINRA rule 2241, I think, section 6. Or 2241. Go Google it. That covers everything that a sell-side analyst must be held to. They are on the sell-side versus the buy-side.

48:02So they are selling research versus they're not managing a fund. They are giving information. They're issuing a buy-hold sell. They are giving price targets. They are looking at financial models. They are in a different spot than, again, someone on the buy side that is like reading the sell side. What does the sell thought mean? Selling research? Selling research, selling knowledge and wisdom. I don't know how the SEC defines that. I'll be very clear. And it's kind of like – I mean it's kind of outdated at this point. It's almost like an antiquated thing, sell side versus buy high. Just kind of how like a wire house – like that's a very antiquated way of saying like a big wealth manager.

48:44That's the big thing that's getting me at the moment. And I'm not naming anyone specific for professional reasons. But why is it that these analysts always set these massive targets and don't seem to be affected by reality? Because there is a non-specific, prominent data center analyst who quite literally went out on television yesterday and said that Oracle was a good buy. And it was that it's actually better when you look at the report. This is factually incorrect. It's not even an opinion thing. These cell-side analysts always seem very positive, even when reality isn't reflecting that. Shouldn't they know better?

49:23Is there a reason they would be more positive in general? Not talking about this person. Yeah. I mean, it's like, this is like one of my favorite issues. It's just, it's really fascinating because it kind of speaks to like this proliferation of like anyone can put out research and like anyone can kind of like a lowercase a analyst versus capital A analyst. I think that the thing to always go back to is 2001, I think 2002, new regulations were put in, spearheaded by Eliot Spitzer, who was the New York AG at the time. After Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, certain analysts had put out research that was super bullish and was total mismatch to how they were privately describing Amazon.

50:04Henry Blodgett famously put out a report, banned from the industry. That's all well chronicled. All new regulations were put in place from security regulators around like, okay, you are an analyst. Okay, you have to include all sorts of new disclosures, which is great. I mean, and again, it's a very high standard. What could a disclosure be? A member of my household. I think the language is something like me or a member of my household owns a security in XYZ or something like that. And also, you know, kind of these charts you'll see at the bottom of a report where it shows the stock price, like Apple, for example, the stock price relative to like where their price target is to hold them accountable for like, you know, kind of what that's looking like.

50:52But that would require someone to hold them accountable. Yes, exactly. And analysts are, by and large, there's plenty of data on this, but they are a very bullish group. I mean, the data, if you just look at buy, hold, sell, they continue to be that. And the whole industry has really evolved where, and this is a whole other conversation, we talked about this a little bit, but people should be aware that corporate access is just a much bigger part of the analyst's job and all that. When you say corporate access, what do you mean? Yeah, like you're an analyst at a, again, a Morgan Stanley or a UBS.

51:31And just to call out two random ones, your clients, like a hedge fund investor, like a big institutional investor, access to the management team of the company that I cover as an analyst. So I'm covering the, you know, I'm a healthcare analyst and I'm covering Johnson & Johnson. and I can connect the investor who's reading my research with the CFO of Johnson & Johnson. I'm just calling out random companies. But it's that connection. It's that link. Well, it's access. It's just access. That feels like a bad thing. That doesn't feel like it benefits. It is definitely. It's one of these things that analysts have to manage.

52:16And I don't want to call it a conflict because it's not inherently a conflict, But it is another kind of piece of the job that, frankly, and there are many fantastic analysts out there who do manage that well and put out, you know, have great relationships, but put out critical research, you know, like substantive research. And you just have to manage that. And there are many fantastic analysts who do. But I even said it's not unlike sometimes being a beat reporter where you have to maintain just like good working relationships with the people you cover, even if you're going to say an accurate but like critical, fair thing.

52:48and then you just have to like move on. Again, very different from the role of an analyst, you know, but it is, there are similarities. I don't know if it's different. There are similarities. I just want to make sure I have it clear. Right, so a sell side analyst writes reports about companies in a certain sector and puts those reports out publicly and disseminates them to other banks, et cetera. And then hedge funds can go to the analyst and say, I want your specific research that you've done on these companies And also, can you introduce me to their management team? That's part of the offering.

53:22Exactly. I see. Exactly. And therefore, to be able to connect clients to management and make money for your firm, you have to, maybe you have to be a little more positive in your report on that firm than you normally would in order to be able to connect your clients with them. That's it? That would be the cynical take. Absolutely. Okay. But the very fair criticism, I would say. Okay. I don't think that should be legal. I do not think it should be legal. The cynical take, but it's just like a feature that, and again, they're like excellent, excellent, excellent analysts who just like manage that.

54:00That's why we're being nonspecific. And who just manage that. And it's just like being, and again, yes, okay, there are differences. But it is not unlike you write a tough story on a company, you are fair, and then you got to move on. And then you got to like move on. You know what I mean? But the thing is, I don't know. I know. i think access journalism is bullshit and i think we're in the beginning of history as i wrote yeah last week it it is it's no longer useful to do access access journalism doesn't work it doesn't get you anything if a pr firm or a pr person at a company doesn't answer your question because they're mad at you that's their fucking problem this is not the opinion of my guests this is just me i just when you told me this for the first time in the prequel i was kind of i sat and thought about it a lot because it's like you don't have to agree with me here it feels antithetical to good analysis to be like well i can't be too mean especially when your job is hey should i invest in this and it's like well you maybe should because i gotta i gotta get you the company i gotta make sure the company fuck that i i don't know this is the thing though gets back to my wider feeling about the stock market it's like that feels rigged it feels like you've got analysts who go on cnbc bloomberg and i'm sure people will say oh bloomberg real traders use the terminal whatever but it's like the growth of retail investors is what makes this dangerous to me the fact that it's the easiest time ever to invest in stocks if i felt like buying a stock right now i could do so in a few taps yeah if that's the case having a or that should be the disclosure here's a here's a good centrist path i think that they should have to write down every introduction they've made oh they should say every time every time they've introduced a hedge fund and they don't even need to name them.

55:44They just need to say made introduction on this date. That way we could see because, oh, I bet there'd be a lot of them. Yeah. Also, I'm getting all new ideas for FOIA requests. Do it. Not that they would be, not that many would actually fall into that at all because it's all private sector. FOIA is many. But that's, you know, like, but I'm just getting ideas. I'm just getting ideas. Again, totally different. No, but this is the thing. Yeah, yeah, yeah. This is what good journalism is because it's like these messy little lines between information that are not disclosed. Exactly. And it wouldn't be as big a deal if they disclose this stuff.

56:16But also, the term analyst is used very vaguely these days. Totally. It's confusing to people. Citrini Research, for example. Yeah. Oh, my God, did you see that? People who are, for example, again, get to the heart of people who are held to an industry, regulated industry standard that is very closely held, closely watched versus not. Yeah. That's a perfect example. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Perfect example. All right. I think we're going to wrap it there. We've had a great time. Where can we find you two? I'm on X at Nick Dever underscore, or you can check out my newly launched website, Nick Dever dot com.

56:52And you vibe coded and it's beautiful. Sorry, don't cancel me, Ed. I can't believe you outed me at the end. I'm going to vibe literally. Fuck. Nevermind. Or Barron's dot com. Yes. You can find me on Barron's dot com. All right, everyone. You can find me, of course, where's your Ed dot at better off line dot com. This podcast that you're already listening to. you'll have a monologue later in the week thank you all thank you thank you for listening to better offline the editor and composer of the better offline theme song is matt osowski you can check out more of his music and audio projects at matt osowski.com M-A-T-T-O-S-O-W-S-K-I.com You can email me at ez at betteroffline.com or visit betteroffline.com to find more podcast links and, of course, my newsletter.

57:44I also really recommend you go to chat.wheresyoured.at to visit the Discord and go to r slash betteroffline to check out our Reddit. Thank you so much for listening. Better Offline is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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