The Talented Mr. Altman

28:20But if you were to use those holdings in those kinds of companies in which a huge majority of them go under, and then a huge majority of them do go under, and suddenly you are having to use as collateral holdings in a company that is worth zero, you're in big trouble. So yes, it is not done very commonly. Very strange. And it seems that strange financial relationships are kind of Altman's modus operandi. So tell me about Hydrazine. Sure. Hydrazine was a fund that Sam started around the time that he joined Y Combinator, the accelerator incubator in Silicon Valley. And he got some funding from Peter Thiel for it.

29:00And basically, it was a way for him to invest in other Y Combinator startups. So it was largely using outside money, but it was like just an access line to capital that he could put into these seed stage investments in startups. As I've mentioned previously, since leaving Y Combinator, Altman's investment portfolio has ballooned to hundreds of startups with billions of dollars.

29:26How many of these companies have you seen that have a direct relationship with OpenAI that he's invested in? Well, in the story, we laid out a couple of clear overlaps between, you know, open AI as a business and companies that he's invested in. Like the most obvious one that we that we brought up, I shouldn't say obvious, but the most like apparent one of this kind of overlap was Helion, which is this nuclear fusion energy startup that he's put hundreds of millions of dollars into. and they worked out a deal as we broke in the story for Helion to provide, be the energy provider for future open AI data centers.

30:03So these data centers, when they're built, and I guess when nuclear fusion exists, you know, would be powered by clean nuclear fusion energy. And so that's something in which Sam obviously as one of the largest, by far the largest investor in Helion, you know, there's an overlap there between that and open AI's business. And then the other one that also kind of stuck out to us was Reddit, where he is one of the largest outside shareholders in the company. And OpenAI announced a licensing deal with Reddit a couple of weeks ago. And, you know, Reddit stock popped on announcement of this deal. And Sam, as a major shareholder, saw his net worth increase, you know, within the course of a day.

30:46I mean, that's kind of how it goes when you hold stock, but notably on announcement of this deal. Surely any future deals between OpenAI and Reddit would mean that Sam Altman would be, there must be some kind of insider trading. How is that possibly legal? I mean, I don't know. I don't want to get into what's legal or isn't legal. It's questionable. Yeah. I guess what was interesting to me and to the other reporters about the way that Reddit and OpenAI announced this licensing deal was they didn't say that Sam recused himself from the conversations between Reddit and OpenAI. They said something to the effect of this deal was spearheaded or the person who was in charge of this deal was OpenAI's COO.

31:31And I don't know what to make of that. I feel like the language of Sam recused himself would have been easy enough to do, but they didn't do it. They chose not to do it. uh also feels like saying brad light cap took the deal that doesn't feel like a disconnection from sam altman yeah and it isn't regardless even if he wasn't involved and you know you could make a fair argument that like open ai probably should be licensing data from all of these you know providers because that's what they're using to train their models but the fact is they didn't um sam didn't recuse himself and you know whether it's his fault or not or this was intentional or not, the fact of the matter is he owns a sizable, like disclosed percentage of Reddit through various holdings.

32:12And like those, you know, those shares went up on announcement of the deal. So with Helion, back to the nuclear energy startup, have they actually built anything yet? No, no. I mean, I don't want to discount anything that Helion does because who wouldn't want nuclear energy to exist, right? Like that's, that's obviously a great boon for humanity to have nuclear fusion you mean yeah sorry so nuclear fusion yes uh like that would be a major technological breakthrough that would be a you know a sea change in how you know we derive energy from the grid and whatever but uh you know aside from a couple of announcements in terms of partnerships or or future purchase agreements between helion and microsoft and and you know the thing that we reported helion and open ai uh this is not like they have not achieved it yet these guys are not out there selling, you know, nuclear fusion energy to the mass public.

33:08Well, I think what gets me with that is Sam Altman puts$375 million into this company. He got them into Y Combinator, if I remember from your reporting. He has been embedded with them. Now there is this deal between Helion, a company that is yet to build something, and OpenAI that they will theoretically do something in the future. It just feels like, I know we're not talking in legalities here, but it feels like there is just so much self-dealing here. It feels like he has been self, Altman has been self-dealing for years. Yeah. I mean, I guess to make the argument that Sam or OpenAI or other people in that circle would make is like, Sam is a prolific investor.

33:51He's been doing this for as long as he's been in tech. They say he's kind of slowed down quite a bit, you know, maybe numbers would show a different story, but regardless, he, you know, this is a thing that he does. And like, if you are going to be running, you know, the most consequential tech company at the moment or startup at the moment or open AI, there's just bound to be overlap between a vast investment empire and an open AI. So that's like the argument to the contrary, you know, self-dealing, I guess that's the interpretation of the reader. Yeah, I think what it is is that it doesn't feel like this would be tolerated in any other industry.

34:32Politicians own stock, for example. I realize it's not an industry. And they are heavily criticized for it. But it almost feels like, and perhaps you can speak to this, it feels like Sam Altman gets reported on differently than many entrepreneurs and many investors. And I really do put the journal to the side here. I think the journal and the Washington Post have done a very good job scrutinizing it. But it feels writ large, like he's given a much rosier and easier ride than most. it's hard to know with sam right i mean he's such a figure at this point which is kind of funny to me because like i've been reporting on tech for let's say 10 years or so and and sam's always kind of been around uh he's just this person that we all kind of knew as reporters because of you know his role at y combinator and showing up at sun valley almost every year um and you know now open AI being this big deal that it is.

35:27He's this figure that everyone kind of has dealt with at certain points as a tech reporter. And there's just so many opinions on him. I mean, you know, I think there are people maybe like you who see him as this nefarious character, self-dealing, someone who isn't really above board. But, you know, you report a story like this and you talk to founders and some venture capitalists and they love him. They think he's, you know, a great investor, a brilliant business person, has incredible insights. And, you know, is this also kind of futuristic thinker who's kind of in that Elon Musk vein, thinking 10, 20 years down the road and at a scale at the trillions of dollars level that they find very, you know, alluring and exciting.

36:13And so, you know, it's always hard to know when you do these sort of stories, like what you're going to get in the course of reporting, because you can talk to a certain group of people who think he's borderline criminal. And to be clear, I'm not saying that, but there are people - Yeah, yeah. Just citing someone. Yeah. Yeah. And people who think he's the Nikolai Tesla of our time. What are you going to do? So here's my thing with that. Is he that successful a businessman though? He's very clearly a successful investor, but as a businessman, the company he's been attempted fired from looped fired from y combinator fired from open ai he seems like a very effective politician and a very good deal maker but i wonder how much of this because you say he's slowing down i wonder how much of his success can be attributed to the fact that he just was inside of y combinator and had the money to play at the time because you've been around long enough.

37:15So go ahead. Yeah, no, look, it's a fair point. And I think like, look, the numbers probably speak for themselves in terms of his net worth, right? You can stack the deck however you want in Silicon Valley to say someone is or isn't a good investor. Like when you have deal flow, when you have access - No, it really is a scoreboard situation. Yeah. Well, no, but I'm saying like you can have access to early stage startups better than other people and you're just going to be getting first looks at uber and stripe he's not an uber i'm just giving an example yeah like if you know stripe yeah yeah or stripe or airbnb which he is in like if you're in that inner circle of people who see these companies on the way up and like you know i don't think it takes a brain genius to look at something like uber and be like oh well i bet that's probably going to be a pretty big deal one day so i'd like to invest in that.

38:03But, you know, I think to his credit, maybe his investment in Stripe was an incredibly risky one for him personally. I think it was like$15 ,000 or something. And, you know, he probably didn't have a ton in his bank account at the time. So that was a pretty... When was that? Early, early days. I mean, they were in, it was in 2009, actually. Paul Graham... Oh, so before he sold Loob? Yeah. Yeah. I think it was around the same time. um because that's what i'm saying there is not really much of a risk if he hadn't but i feel like he sold loop later because that but nevertheless it is fair enough i don't know if sam would have been out on the streets um you know if this if this investment hadn't turned out but uh you know in a world of investment where people get congratulated for you know going all in on something or you know being willing to bet it all on an unprofitable you know unproven startup you know people give sam a lot of credit but yeah i don't know i think you bring up a good question which is like if you have access to an airbnb in the earliest days or or a reddit or even a company that like rippling which i don't know if your you know listeners know about but it's this very successful now hr startup um that sam has has invested in and also made an offshoot of gusto when it's complicated yeah yeah basically i don't know how interesting this is but whatever You know, there was a kind of a big scandal a bunch of years back with this company called Zenefits, which was accused of shirking regulatory requirements for training its workers on.

39:43Anyway, it was a big scandal a couple of years ago. And the CEO of that was pushed out very publicly, later replaced by David Sachs for what it's worth. And he went on to start this other company that was basically a direct competitor to that. and it's called Rippling and it's done really well in terms of building up its valuation. And Sam is one of their earliest investors. And I think, you know, part of his... Parker Conrad. Parker Conrad is the guy's name. Yeah. And anyway, Sam has made a bunch of money from that, or at least, you know, his investment is valuable from that. And my point is basically like, when you're in this inner circle, you have access to these companies and you can make these investments.

40:18Whether, you know, he is like standard deviations, a better business person than anyone else in tech, I don't know. It's not for me to say, but he is on paper, his holdings are worth billions. So I guess you got to give him something for that. So you mentioned in the story that Hydrazine, Sam Altman's firm, bought a portion of startup shares owned by Paul Graham versus Y Combinator. Would those have been Paul Graham basically doing the same, like he might have been investing in these companies too, or is this just early days Y Combinator shares? These were shares that were owned by Paul Graham, as we reported.

40:55And so it was probably a transaction for him to kind of take some money off of the table and offload them to hydrazine so he could be, I guess, a little bit more liquid. But yeah, these were Paul Graham shares that ended up being bought out by the hydrazine fund. It's interesting because there's so... It feels like Altman at times doesn't have a focus, though, because he's done all of these investments and you, within the reporting, within the Washington Post's reporting as well. There's this idea of him being absent, absent from Y Combinator, absent from Looped at one point, retasking engineers to work on a dating app separately.

41:33It almost feels hard to tell whether Altman is focused on anything other than just the number going up. But here is the real problem I see. What happens if, and we mentioned this earlier, these startups go to zero and he has this these massive credit lines yeah like this it feels like house of cards yeah i i think uh you know these people tend to be okay in the end i find so you know i don't know how many people are really all that worried about you know sam's credit line and stuff and you know obviously when interest rates go up these things tend to be a lot riskier than they were going into it um you know i can't go into all of the details there but yeah there's a reason why using, you know, privately held shares or private, you know, you know, shares in privately held companies as collateral is not commonly done.

42:26I mean, I talked to someone in the course of the story who was like shocked that someone would do that kind of thing. But, you know, again, to this Silicon Valley mindset in which risk, you know, quote unquote risk is really promoted and celebrated around here. That kind of thing is seen as like an example of how aggressive and cool Sam is that he's willing to kind of take a risk on something like that in order to put more money into, well, I guess you could, some people would say put more money into the ecosystem. Other people would be like, give himself more examples to get rich. Yeah. And it's, it doesn't actually, this is a question.

43:01Did you see a lot of, it was the general pattern of what you've seen a lot of smaller investments across a lot of companies or big fat ones generally like the 375 million in Helion. That one is a standout, the 375 million in Helion. But, you know, again, without going too specific into the numbers, because we didn't put them in the story, but, you know, some of them are in the, you know, millions and tens of millions, you know, whether that's all his personal money or money that's raised through, you know, various LP funds that are, you know, in which there's capital put in by LPs can get a bit complicated.

43:37But no, this isn't, you know, one of those angel investors who's putting$10 ,000 in a bunch of different companies. I mean, when he really believes in a startup or he really thinks they're going to go somewhere, the number is in the millions and tens of millions. So a slightly different tack here. Everyone is saying that OpenAI is the future, that ChatGPT will be in everything. You've been reporting on the enterprise for a long time. Do you think that's actually the case? Do you think that this company is really, I know they're making billions of revenue, but do you think they're ever going to go into the green?

44:13Do you think this is for real? I don't know. I mean, I guess I'd actually maybe even push that back to you because, you know, you're someone who's, you know, been around tech and, you know, reporters. And I mean, like, it's incredibly hypey right now. Like, of my time, you know, covering this industry, I've never really seen the level of hype. You know, crypto, obviously, was a interesting moment in terms of there are people who believe that the entire financial system was about to be transformed because of these, you know, the blockchain and, you know, there was the on-demand era, you know, cloud.

44:51I didn't really cover tech at the time. And, you know, that sort of proved out to really be in a very specific way transformative. I don't know with this one. I mean, I think the technology as it stands right now is very problematic in terms of its shortcomings i think hallucinations are a major issue uh if it's going to be as valuable as search which is like the most successful product you know tech has probably ever put out um and the other issue is the cost of training and deploying these models is tremendous i mean like you said like i cover the enterprise so part of my beat is writing about the cloud and data centers i mean to me one of the biggest things that's going on right now is this multi-billion dollar build out of data centers that's happening at an unprecedented level across not even the country but the world in order for there to be enough uh you know ai warehouses data centers you know outfitted with nvidia chips to train and and inference um you know deploy all of these models that's crazy i mean because that is all done in advance of there being enough demand um to justify these investments right i mean like this is all because you know for a huge portion of last year, there was more demand than supply when it came to compute.

46:06And so all of these tech companies started saying, well, we need to build out in advance of this demand being unending and increasing. And it's like, well, okay, that's fine for now. But if in the future, it doesn't, if this turns out to have been a fad or the years that it takes for this to be a widely a widely used technology is way longer than it is. You know, it could be one of the bigger boondoggles I think we've seen in tech, you know, like all these data centers that were built out that lay unused because there's not enough people wanting to use ChatGPT or any of the kind of similar products.

46:44Is that happening now or is that something you fear for the future? More for the future. You know, I think the demand is still fairly high right now. And if you talk to startups like ai startups they'll say it's still hard for us to get access to gpu clusters uh for us to train models or you know things like you know the the technology we want to deploy is still much slower than we want because there isn't enough compute but um yeah jury is still out i sorry i know that's a really lame phrase but but like no no no for real that's good though because what happens if the demand never arrives though does this stuff get repurposed?

47:20Does it get sold off? Well, I think you actually saw a kind of interesting thing happening with crypto, which I actually wrote a story about that with Berber, Jen, my colleague on this story, who was the lead on the Sam Altman piece. With crypto mining, there were a lot of companies at the height of, and specifically Ethereum mining, that were building up these rigs these these mining rigs that were um had gpus at the heart of them uh that were necessary when people thought that was going to be profitable basically like wasn't core weave which is yes the listeners a huge soon-to-ipo multi-billion dollar gpu provider weren't they previously crypto yeah 100 they're a fascinating company i i love core weave because yes this was a company that is started up by people in finance basically like traders um like energy traders uh i shouldn't actually don't know if there's energy, but people with like a very financial background who realized like this amazing arbitrage that was happening in crypto and Ethereum mining, which was that like the value of mining when Ethereum prices were high is greater than the electricity it takes to consume to do the mining.

48:30And so when that was at its peak, they were, you know, they were doing pretty well. And then they read the writing on the wall that, you know, Ethereum mining was probably going to decrease in value. And they made an early switch to like retrofit all of their mining rigs into ai compute and that was before chat gpt and you know open ai became a household name um but anyway i bring up that whole story because um what a lot of ethereum miners started to realize when there was this kind of shift in the nature of ethereum mining that basically meant they didn't need gpus like these very powerful gpu rigs to do the mining is they were stuck with these kind of useless machines.

49:09And so a lot of them have tried to like jump over into AI compute and providing, you know, training and inferencing. And so it was an interesting example of like one trend jumping into another. And so I don't know what that could mean because the theory of mining is just not even close to the scale that we're talking at here with AI. But, you know, tech seems to find a way. I don't know. I don't have a good answer for it, but it would be a crazy outcome, honestly. We're talking$30 billion a year of investment in infrastructure from a single company alone in building up data centers. So if that ended up not being necessary, yeah, I don't know what to do with those things.

49:53Yeah, it feels like what I would worry about is the physical GPU equivalent of 2022, where you had all these companies in 2021 who hired everyone everywhere and then they went oh crap better fire them but it almost feels like it could cause i think nvidia feels like they would be or amd to an extent micron i guess but would be most at risk from this because if there's just thousands tens of thousands hundreds of thousands of blackwells or what have you sitting around unused, it feels like it could be catastrophic. Yeah. I mean, at least NVIDIA is selling stuff, like at least they're pushing product, you know, like at least they're manufacturing or designing things that are manufactured and selling to the people who are paying cash for them.

50:42So that's, that's better than some crypto or sorry, that's better than some AI companies that it's really just on like on hype and a hope and a prayer. But yeah, I mean, like as we're recording this, NVIDIA is in and around a$3 trillion company. It's more valuable than Apple. I mean, that's crazy. Yeah, there's a lot going on in terms of the expectation of this sort of not stopping anytime soon. Do you think the AI boom is a bubble? Oh, yeah, 100%. Like, I don't I don't even think that's a controversial statement. Like, I think Sam, go ahead. Yeah, no, I think Sam would even agree. And like most people that I talked to in AI, I think it's a bubble.

51:21Because look, the nature of that doesn't mean that everything's going to go to zero and and that you know like the huge run-up in value that we've seen with microsoft and nvidia is going to all you know disintegrate if it takes a lot longer or it doesn't even catch on with ai but yeah i mean you're seeing money and and my colleague berber wrote actually a good story about this a couple weeks ago i mean you're seeing startups that have no you know no revenue really or or not even a product raising at valuations in the billions i I mean, that's the very definition of a bubble. So yeah, I don't even feel like I'm going out on a limb saying that.

52:00So I will push back on that. Not to say you're not going, like, I believe you are, because if you look around, and this is crap on this one, I think, it feels like AI is humored on a level in the media right now that I have literally only seen on the metaverse, where it was just this concept, not saying that AI is useless, generative AI has uses, but it feels like everybody is giving Sundar Pichai, for example, the benefit of the doubt about Google search, or at least they were until it told you to eat rocks. But especially with ChatGPT, they're just kind of assuming these things will happen. And I don't know what it is.

52:37It feels almost like the... Why do you think people are giving it so much space and believing that it will grow exponentially? Well, actually, I have two answers to that. I mean, one is like you are surrounded as a reporter by your sources. The people that you talk to day in, day out, who, you know, try to let you know what's going on in the space are people that a lot of the times are big believers in any new trend in technology. And so it's kind of easy as a reporter to hear about this stuff and want to at least explain it to readers, not necessarily be part of the hype. I mean, that's not our job, but at least say like, well, this is why Anthropic is getting billions of of investments or obviously open AI or anything like that.

53:20Um, I think if I had to just personally guess on a lot of this stuff, you know, it's been a bit slow in terms of transformational technologies in a while. I mean, honestly, you could maybe look back to probably the iPhone as the last thing that like fundamentally upended the way we live our lives. Um, you know, in the enterprise, I guess you could look to the cloud, although most people don't care about that. Um, um but you know with ai and you know these kind of seemingly magical interactions that you've had with chat gpt where it can you know write poems and and you know create images and and you know sora and the video stuff and you know whatever you want to call that you know her like demonstration from open ai like it it demos very well um it sounds like the kind of promise of ai of creating something that approximates human intelligence.

54:15Right. You can fill in the gaps. Yeah. It just like, it feels like the future. I'm not at all saying that it is, but like in terms of like other technological trends that we've seen in the last decade or so, like this one comes closer to science fiction than anything I've seen. I'm not saying it is, but like, it looks like it on paper. And so it's a lot easier, I think, to get caught up in the hype than you may have been in like, I don't know, Uber for X or like instant delivery or something.

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56:15The Wall Street Journal also reports that OpenAI has established, and I quote, a strengthened conflicts policy and a new independent audit committee that reviews potential conflicts, which the journal also notes has yet to disclose any details about what those policies might be. it's also important to remember that when sam altman returned to open ai he appointed a new board of directors made up of this avengers of capitalism i've called them before people like fidget cimo ceo of instacart which is a company that sam altman invested in to a board that also already included dan adam d 'angelo of quora which is another company that sam altman invested in oh oh sorry sorry i forgot there's one other guy that sam altman added back to the board when he became CEO.

57:02He's a guy you might know. He's called Sam Altman. It's so good watching all this happen. It's so fun. It's so great watching all of this naked, self-dealing, corrupt nonsense happen. And everyone's just like, this guy is the future. Sam Altman's the man. And I think the frustrating part of watching the Sam Altman story unfold is that at no point anybody appears to interrogate who this person was and whether they might be fit to task. There are credible allegations of abuse from his sister, Annie Altman. There are real things happening here, business things, social things, horrible things, and no one's goddamn doing anything.

57:43And maybe that's it. Maybe Altman's skill isn't so much creating things or any real legacy, but it's just a result of the momentum one gets when you've made enough money for people and enough money yourself that people no longer bother to check and would rather just find convenient platitudes and stories about the clever things you've said rather than think about it for too long because maybe the truth's just a little disgusting and the problem with someone like sam altman is that they'll eventually get to the point where they can do real damage i don't know like today like becoming the figurehead for the entirety of Silicon Valley and the entire artificial intelligence boom and the CEO of its largest player.

58:29Altman is a marketer at best, kind of a management consultant, but let's be honest, history shows he doesn't really manage anything. Now, I think he's the Michael Jordan of bullshit, the Michael Jordan of empty promises, except he's never had a situation before where these promises were actually connected to something he was responsible for. And what's scary is, like I said, this guy is the CEO of OpenAI. And he has made all of these promises for everyone in artificial intelligence, even those not making generative AI. So everyone is putting the expectations of Sam Altman, who is building, and by which I mean having other people build a technology that doesn't do the things he's promising, on the entirety of the AI industry so that the people buying AI who don't really know what they're talking about go and use generative AI and then they say, wait, this doesn't do the thing.

59:21Do you not see the problem here? Do you not see that Sam Altman is leading tech to ruin? He's promising these things that generative AI cannot do. He is making these statements that are boosting stocks, that are, honest to God, impressive here, tricking Fortune 100 CEOs into investing money in tech that will not do what it says. And when the ruination begins, it's going to be terrible for the Valley. Funding will be even harder to get. And in the next episode, I'm going to explore Sam a little more. And I'm going to really look at what happens to an industry when they so doggedly follow and support and appreciate such an obvious false prophet.

1:00:16Thank you for listening to Better Offline. The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song is Matt Ossowski. You can check out more of his music and audio projects at matosowski.com. M-A-T-T-O-S-O-W-S-K-I.com. You can email me at ez at betteroffline.com or visit betteroffline.com to find more podcast links and, of course, my newsletter. I also really recommend you go to chat.wheresyoured.at to visit the Discord and go to r slash betteroffline to check out our Reddit. Thank you so much for listening. Better Offline is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:01:21Parking shouldn't slow you down. ParkWiz gives every driver a shortcut. Book ahead, save up to 50%, and skip the hassle of circling the block. Park smarter, park faster. ParkWiz. Download the ParkWiz app today and save every time you park. Hey, it's Rich Davis from Covino & Rich. Toyota is moving toward a more sustainable future by giving you the freedom to choose from a full lineup of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, regular gas, and 100 % electric vehicles, including stylish cars like the Camry and Corolla, as well as efficient and spacious SUVs like the RAV4 and Grand Highlander, all backed by Toyota's reputation for reliability.

1:02:00No pressure, just possibilities. Visit buyatoyota.com for a great deal on an efficient Toyota today. Toyota, let's go places. Stop settling for weak sound. It's time to level up your game and bring the boom. Hit the town with the ultra-durable LG XBoom portable speaker and enjoy vibrant sound wherever you go. Elevate your listening experience to new heights because let's be real, your music deserves it. The future of sound is now with LG XBoom. And for a limited time, save 25 % at LG.com with code FALL25. Bring the boom. X-Boom. This is an iHeart Podcast.