The Rise of Japan’s ‘Iron Lady’ and Its Political Shift to the Right

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1:28It makes for some pretty entertaining episodes. Listen to Legally Brunette on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The social media trend is landing some Gen Zers in jail. The progressive media darling whose public meltdown got her fired. And the massive TikTok boycott against Target that actually makes no sense. You won't hear about these online stories in the mainstream media. You can keep up with them and all the other entertaining and outrageous things happening online, in media and in politics with the Bread vs. Everyone podcast. Listen to the Bread vs. Everyone podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

2:10Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. This past weekend, history was made in Tokyo.

2:25For the first time ever, the Liberal Democratic Party, Japan's dominant conservative political machine, elected a woman to lead it. So the winner was Sanae Takeichi, and she is on track to become Japan's first female prime minister. Bloomberg's Paul Jackson covers Japan's government out of Tokyo. He says Takeichi's victory all but guarantees her assent to the prime minister's office in the coming days. Generally speaking, the prime minister of Japan is the leader of the LDP. In many ways, Takeichi is an unconventional leader in Japanese politics. For starters, she's a woman in a country that consistently ranks poorly for gender equality.

3:11But it goes beyond that. She's a former heavy metal drummer and motorcycle enthusiast. She's also a big fan of the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and says she wants to be Japan's Iron Lady. Takeuchi is also known for her hardline nationalism, a tough stance on China, and close ties to the legacy of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. And as Paul puts it, her rise marks a more assertive Japan and sends a clear message. the country is shifting further to the right. It's this idea that traditional Japanese values are being sacrificed to some kind of global wokeness.

3:57This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wan Ha. Every week we take you inside some of the world's biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and businesses that drive this ever-shifting region. Today on the show, Sinai Takeichi. She's poised to become Japan's first woman prime minister. But some Japanese women aren't thrilled about her politics, what her rise to power means for Japan's economy and its relations with the U.S.

4:33Japan's ruling party's election of a conservative but pro-stimulus leader sent shockwaves through global markets. Japanese stocks soared on hopes of more government spending, while currencies and bonds took a hit. Across Asia, markets rallied, as Sanai Takeichi's win sets her to take the reins as Japan's next prime minister. Now, Paul, who is Sanai Takeichi? Well, she's the daughter of a salesman in Nara, one of the ancient capitals of Japan, very much associated with the introduction of Buddhism. It's the site of many ancient temples. That's where she grows up. Her mother works for the police force and she's inspired by the example of Margaret Thatcher, the first female prime minister in the UK.

5:25As she grows up, she goes to university in Kobe. There she gets into biking. She's a bit of a biker. She's also into heavy metal. She's very influenced by British rock bands like Black Sabbath, Iron Maiden. And in fact, she gets into drumming as a heavy metal drummer at that time. She might be Japan's first heavy metal drummer prime minister. That's right. And this eventually leads her to thinking about a career in politics. She wins her first seat in parliament in 1993. Now, she is a protege of the late prime minister Shinzo Abe and said during the campaign that she wants to be Japan's Iron Lady, a reference to the UK's Margaret Thatcher.

6:17What does this tell us, Paul, about the kind of leader she might be? I think on the political and diplomatic side, she's going to be wanting Japan to be more assertive, boost its defence identity and also its influence in regional politics and security issues. On the economic side, I think it's important whenever we get these references to Margaret Thatcher to remember that Margaret Thatcher is very much neoliberal on the economics. Now, this is very different from the LDP in Japan. It's a big government with a lot of interventionist influence in the economy. So in that respect, she differs very much from Margaret Thatcher, who is much more about smaller government and reducing the footprint of the government in the economy.

7:16Here's the thing about Takeichi. She is often labeled as a hardline conservative, but her style leans more towards that of a right-wing populist in the style of Donald Trump. She's challenging the establishment, calling out central bankers, and tapping into public frustrations about immigration, over-tourism, and inflation. And while Takeuchi's rise is historic for Japan, it's unclear whether she'll bring about progress on women's issues and rights. Now, she's a woman and she does speak to some of the kind of female fears and concerns and interests. But, you know, largely her policy front is very much in line with a male conservative position.

8:02For example, one of the hot issues in Japan in recent years has been the surnames with families. partners are obliged to take the surname of their spouse now they can choose between the husband or the wife's name but essentially you have to choose that name and stick with it so there's been quite a movement to enable a husband and wife to just stick with existing surnames after marriage now on this point Takeichi is quite determined to stick with the existing logic. No, no, no. You stick with one surname. That's it. This seems for many women like she's holding back women's rights on names. Obviously, in terms of other subjects like gay marriage or rights for a more diverse community, she's generally against going in that direction.

9:03But Paul says she still has an opportunity to open the door for women in politics. Now, what we'll wait to see is how this cabinet is made up. So she has a chance to make a kind of mission statement there by having a lot of women in the cabinet. Five or more would match the previous record. I think if she did, that would reassure a lot of women. And on the campaign trail, she made some progressive promises that would bring more women into the workforce, which could help turn around Japan's labor shortage. She has mentioned some policies that would be favorable for people dealing with child care.

9:45She suggested that babysitting charges should be made tax deductible. I think also she's offering tax breaks to companies that set up daycare on site at their companies. Again, that would be a huge help to working mothers out there. I mean, in the broader scheme of Japan politics, is she really that conservative at this moment in time? Or are her views in some ways quite populist? I think they are close to populist. I guess our definition of that would be can you reach the boardroom and can you reach the factory floor? And she probably can in that respect. What we saw in her campaign this time around compared with last year is she toned down some of her economic policy messaging and kind of gave us a softer view of who she was.

10:42I think the idea there was to appeal to a wider swathe of the ruling party and to the public as well. So it remains to be seen whether she comes into power and then takes off her cheap clothing and there's the wolf or whether she's going to stick to a slightly closer to centrist line so that she can achieve longevity in her position. because don't forget this is a very fickle political machine we're talking about we've seen a host of prime ministers over the years being thrown out within like a year so if she wants to really establish herself leave a legacy that really does show that her appointment is a watershed she does need to tap in to the common person on the street as well as those people who are fretting about the influx of foreigners and wanting more conservative views also expressed.

11:46We've got an ageing society, a shortage of workers, which means the country kind of needs to draw on foreigners coming in to help boost the labour force. And this is an uneasy moment for the Japanese public.

12:08How's Takeuchi planning to tackle these hurdles? And where will she steer Japan between China and the U.S.? That's after the break.

12:22Hey, everyone. It's Emily Simpson and Shane Simpson from the Legally Brunette podcast. Each week, we're bringing you true crime through a legal lens. Whether you want all the facts on the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, or you still need to wrap your head around the ditty verdict, we're breaking it all down step by step. And we're not just lawyers, we're also husband and wife. It makes for some pretty entertaining episodes. Listen to Legally Brunette on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello, I'm Stephen Carroll. I'm in Brussels, where many of Europe's biggest decisions get made.

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14:57Japan's Prime Minister-in-waiting, Sanai Takeichi, is facing a host of challenges. A sluggish economy, an aging population, economic stagnation, and low wage growth. And among the litany of issues, Bloomberg's Paul Jackson says there's one clear priority for Takeichi. The first thing she must tackle is inflation. The backdrop here is Japan spent like a couple of decades as the poster child of falling prices, deflation. They had terrible problems kind of reigniting price growth. Now, any other country in the world, you're thinking, what would you want to do that for? But in Japan, it's this idea of creating a cycle of growth through inflation.

15:45get wages going up, get growth going up. And this has been a central LDP goal. And now we've had three years of inflation over 2%. People are realizing that, okay, wages are going up, but my purchasing power is going down all the time. And some of the basic expenses, namely food, are going up way more than inflation. And the LDP has tried all kinds of measures to subsidize gasoline prices, subsidize electricity prices, so on and so forth. And the result from your average voter is it's not enough. During her campaign, Takeichi pledged to revive key elements of Abenomics, The economic policy of high public spending and cheap borrowing.

16:39That was championed by her mentor, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. But Paul says it's not clear that's the right strategy for Japan right now. Although there's a lot of popularity for the Abenomics approach of reflating the economy, spending low interest rates. If you've got inflation, then what is that combination going to generate? I'm afraid it's going to generate more inflation right that's what the voters do not want I think what she needs to do is she needs to give more purchasing power to consumers now you could do this through pushing up wages but a government can't dictate how wages go up and so this has been one of her central arguments criticizing the other candidates is they've all got all these wage goals, she's saying you cannot tell the private sector to raise wages by certain amounts.

17:36So she's more of the idea of, OK, we need some kind of cash handouts and tax rebate so that people have more money in their pockets now to deal with the cost of living crunch. A key function of Abenomics was to stimulate the economy by keeping interest rates low. But Japan has only just emerged from a decade-long period of stimulus and has been raising interest rates to hold inflation down. Paul says if Takechi follows through on her promise to expand spending, it could put the central bank in a difficult position. The Bank of Japan under Governor Ueda has been normalising policy. We've had interest rate increases and we're kind of lined up for an interest rate hike later this month.

18:27But with Takaichi taking the helm, I think all those bets are kind of off for now. Because she in the past, just a year ago, she was saying raising interest rates was stupid. that's a pretty harsh comment to make now she's toned it down this time around but in a question asked by kyoto news last week she specifically said that she'd be against interest rates going up at this point now obviously the government doesn't dictate what the bank of japan does but you would expect there is going to be some kind of political pressure on the bank of japan to go cautiously and slowly going forward. And this is where we've seen how the yen has weakened as expectations of where interest rates are going to go and kind of getting pegged back.

19:19And of course, that's also feeding into the stock prices going up. As Takeichi steps onto the world stage, Paul says one of her first priorities will be building a relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump and strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance. And she appears to have made a good start. Trump congratulated Takeichi on her victory on social media, calling her a highly respected person of great wisdom and strength. Her first major diplomatic test will be the likely visit of President Trump to Japan. Now, Japan has sealed a trade deal with the US. And the key aspect of that is bringing down auto tariffs from 25 % down to 15%.

20:09I just signed the largest trade deal in history. I think maybe the largest deal in history with Japan. That's something that rival South Korea still hasn't achieved. So there's a positive there from that deal. But then we also have this very complicated investment,$550 billion of investment that Japan has pledged to the US. But they don't seem to be quite on the same page as to whether this is actual money going straight to the US or whether it's investment loans or even just guarantees on investment loans. So I think what we have here is potential for problems on the implementation of that investment pledge part of the trade deal.

20:55Now, what we heard Takechi say during the campaign was if there are issues with the implementation of that investment, then there is the possibility that parts of that agreement may need to be renegotiated. Now, I don't think Donald Trump is going to like that very much. But to be sure, she's not going to meet Donald Trump and be ripping up trade agreements. She's going to be sticking to those trade agreements. And I think she's going to be plugging in to that kind of common populist conservative streak that Donald Trump has. And basically saying, hey, look, I'm kind of like you here in Japan.

21:39You can rely on me. One other area that Trump and Takeuchi could align on, China. She's cautious about China's role. Her basic stance would be in line with U.S. view on containing China's growing influence in the world and within Asia. So I think there's a lot of parallels, a lot of common ground for them to tap into. The idea that global supply chains, supply networks, key security items for the global economy, namely chips, stuff like that, that there should be a global network of which the U.S. is a central pillar. These are all kind of themes that Takeichi is on the same page. Paul says Takeichi's victory shows that Japan is falling in line with a trend that's sweeping the world.

22:40I think this is a reflection of where the world has been going in recent years. Donald Trump has created a kind of playbook for right-wing populists around the world, appealing both to the boardrooms and the factory floor as a key element, that the idea of multilateral consensus, forget this, it's about the deal. You know, what can you get for your country? What can you get that the average person can easily understand as a win, as something that's positive for them, positive for their future, for their jobs? And we're seeing these leaders emerging all over the world.

23:32This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wan Ha. To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access to all of Bloomberg.com, subscribe today at Bloomberg.com slash podcast offer. If you like the episode, make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take Asia wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. See you next time.

24:02Hey, everyone. It's Emily Simpson and Shane Simpson from the Legally Brunette podcast. Each week, we're bringing you true crime through a legal lens. Whether you want all the facts on the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, or you still need to wrap your head around the ditty verdict, we're breaking it all down step by step. And we're not just lawyers. We're also husband and wife. It makes for some pretty entertaining episodes. Listen to Legally Brunette on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Special Agent Regal, Special Agent Bradley Hall. The time is approximately 11.15 a.m.

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25:51The social media trend is landing some Gen Zers in jail. The progressive media darling whose public meltdown got her fired. And the massive TikTok boycott against Target that actually makes no sense. You won't hear about these online stories in the mainstream media. But you can keep up with them and all the other entertaining and outrageous things happening online, in media, and in politics with the Brad vs. Everyone podcast. Listen to the Brad vs. Everyone podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.