Anthropic’s Mythos is Back, OpenAI Releases GPT 5.6, Apple’s Price Increases

23:03Ranjan Roy:But even for all three of them?

23:05Big Technology Podcast Host:all three like and terra all three okay so they're not doing like uh luna everybody gets a

23:11Ranjan Roy:little bit of access too but uh so you gotta wait yeah i mean i think the hope is that it comes out fairly soon that's just the way that they're talking but we'll see well i guess why why i'm asking that is in my mind and maybe it's wrong i still kind of associate the more expensive and heavy the model is the more dangerous it is and that's why when luna is fast and affordable for everyday work and that's kind of the positioning you would think like that should be easy and you just give it to everybody versus soul is the flagship model and uh that's the big dangerous one that can get us all into trouble but maybe that's the wrong assumption but yeah you got to

23:53Big Technology Podcast Host:be careful those nimble fighters right you think they're just lightweight and chill and next thing

23:58Ranjan Roy:you know they cut you they're they're they're exploiting software left and right bringing down

24:03Big Technology Podcast Host:global financial infrastructure exactly okay so speaking of global financial infrastructure we do have ipos on the way uh this is from but but the question is when this is from the new york times openai leans toward waiting a next until next year for its ipo openai is leading towards holding off its initial public offering until next year a turnabout that punctuates the uncertain future for fast-rising artificial intelligence giants. The maker of Chachipiti hired bankers and lawyers with an eye towards a public offering as soon as the third or fourth quarter of this year. But because that's not going to hit the$1 trillion valuation that Sam Altman has been seeking, it looks like they are going to potentially postpone.

24:46Big Technology Podcast Host:It's from the time story. Top of mind is what happened to Elon Musk's SpaceX after its IPO this month. It had the largest IPO ever, raising more than$85 billion at a$1.77 trillion valuation. However, it's fallen back to earth. I'll just share my conspiracy theory on this one and then turn it to you in terms of your views of the implications here. I think OpenAI knows it's important to beat Anthropik to the public markets given the growth that Anthropik has shown of late. it probably sees a better opening now because anthropic has been in a way held back by the government because of the fable fumble and open ai might be just sending out signals that it's going to wait but then it will pounce as a lightweight fighter does and cut cut anthropic get it get it get there first that's my conspiracy theory talking about two potentially trillion

25:45Ranjan Roy:dollar companies as lightweight fighters here but gotta be nimble gotta be nimble okay i i do like that because it was surprising to me that that could even be leaked and i feel a lot of this ipo reporting is very purposefully leaked because again in the past like and i mean having seen a lot of this very up close like everyone does whatever they can to not allow for any of this kind of reporting and we've certainly seen plenty of it. So it feels very like anything that comes out is purposeful. So then you have the question, why would they signal that they may be delaying? I do like your take there.

26:29Ranjan Roy:I think that's a fun one. But I also just think like right now, to me, what's interesting with the market is two months ago, everything felt like it had direction. Everything, the ARR was just unreal, like any kind of number that was being reported out. Overall, you know, everyone's feeling good about things. The Frontier Lab and state-of-the-art models still are the kind of dominant narrative. Meanwhile, to me, the biggest vibe shift has been when you see Bill Gurley or the Coinbase CEO, all brian armstrong like everyone is just bragging about not using the frontier models think about two months ago three months ago it was just oh my god have you used opus 4.8 or whatever like it was just gpt55 is now ahead of 4.8 that's all anyone talked about no one had ever even i mean most the average user had never even heard of quinn or like now with glm 5.2 this week So to me, it almost feels like this is a moment to wait because the entire market has shifted from two to three months ago and no one got out other than Elon.

27:49Ranjan Roy:And he did a great job at that. But I think waiting actually would be the smarter decision.

27:56Big Technology Podcast Host:But how long do you want to wait? Because if you wait too much longer, you might be in the situation where you've spent a lot of money. you're waiting for more money uh and your customers are starting to try to find ways to efficiency max their but they are they already are they already are but do you want do you want that you know right now the cut the curve is looking up into the right but do you want it to even out as these customers try to uh try to find more efficient ways to use your tools

28:29Ranjan Roy:I guess, I mean, and I have no direct knowledge either way on this. To me, the curve is no longer up and to the right from where it was a few months ago. Just everything. Yeah. I mean, just again, when the Coinbase CEO is bragging about model routing and here's five different models suited to different tasks and everyone is talking about that, it changes the entire growth curve. The entire story from September to February, March, April-ish, all of that has changed. It's just so clear. So to go out, you're going to have to show your latest results. You're going to have to show the last few months.

29:12Ranjan Roy:So I do think versus you have a lot of promising different business lines, start allowing a little bit more maturity and then go out with a stronger story rather than here's an ARR curve that looks insane. Right.

29:29Big Technology Podcast Host:And it's not just the Coinbase CEO and it's not just Twitter voices who are talking about finding more efficient uses of their models and looking for savings in their engagements with Anthropic and OpenAI. And by the way, there's also some reporting about Anthropic and OpenAI potentially overcharging customers. So it is a broader pullback, not just a micro-influencer pullback. and we have the reporting and we're going to talk about it right after this. And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast with Ranjan Roy of Margins. All right, Ranjan, so before the break, we talked a little bit about how there's this, now it's become a meme that people are trying to pull back on their costs with OpenAI and Anthropic and finding ways to do it.

30:17Big Technology Podcast Host:But the reporting shows that it's more than a meme, that it's a reality that seems like it might be more widespread than you would even know by seeing the tweets. This is from the information, how AI customers are lowing their Anthropic and OpenAI bills. As prices for Anthropic and OpenAI's flagship products soar, some large customers are using cheaper AI models from those companies' menus, as well as from other providers. Ensemble Health Partners, a provider of software for hospitals that plans to spend up to$100 million on AI this year, said it's had success switching to an OpenAI model that's one-twentieth as expensive as the company's more advanced models.

30:53Big Technology Podcast Host:The AI Power tool for writing appeal letters to insurance firms that won't reimburse Ensemble's hospital clients for care they provide. So the AI Power is a tool that does that. Ensemble sends about 15 ,000 such letters every month. And the chief technology officer of the company said switching to a lower cost model will result in savings of nearly$700 ,000 per year. Many Anthropik and OpenAI customers are willing to stomach the rising costs of these two companies' products, but some are hitting the brakes after blowing through their budgets. Okay, so basically what you're seeing now is it's almost as if these smaller flash models have gotten good enough that you can make these moves, and companies are looking at what they're spending and saying, hey, wait a second, this makes zero sense.

31:41Big Technology Podcast Host:We are actually just going to go to the smaller models and we're going to route and maybe use the more powerful models as a decision-maker, as a sort of top-layer decision-maker as opposed to a worker. Pretty interesting, Rajon, wouldn't you say? I mean, it does seem like this is, going back to our discussion in the first half here, a real, not to use a jargon, but a real economic headwind for these companies and not good, Again, if you're rooting for them to show exceptional growth as they get to IPO.

32:14Ranjan Roy:I mean, to me, the most interesting part of what you just said is you called it an economic headwind. But even within that reporting, they're still talking about using an open AI model. Just 120th is expensive. So to me, that's an even bigger challenge overall to the narrative is like you can be using Anthropic and OpenAI's own products and still that's not good for their overall IPO narrative and the business story because it's dependent on using the most expensive models. Not here's a whole suite of products and models and use all of them the best you can. And that's good for all of us. It really feels like the fact that that becomes a story in itself versus, oh, you're just using different parts of the OpenAI ecosystem.

33:06Ranjan Roy:I think that is a pretty telling thing.

33:09Big Technology Podcast Host:Is there a Jevons paradox side to all this where it's like, yeah, like you switched from using only our frontier model for everything to some of our cheaper models, but you're going to do a lot more now. And so therefore, a category that you never would have even spent on in 2023, now you're going to spend a ton more.

33:27Ranjan Roy:I think this is the crazy part of the timing of all this. To me, I firmly believe in a few years' time, and especially in the next decade, there is going to be just massive increases in overall token consumption, agentification of everything. I believe it. But the timing, because if this pressure wasn't so great on the two giant, the frontier lab giants, then you would think the product should actually very clearly, you ask it a question, you give it a problem, and it tells you. And I've seen Claude do this sometimes where it won't actively switch, but if you ask it which of your models are best suited for which part of this task, it will tell you.

34:16but they don't like core bake that into the product

34:20Ranjan Roy:because it's not good for the business overall and it should be they could own this and make their portfolio approach and everything is tightly integrated but it's given the IPO pressure that would be a dangerous thing to do over the next six months

34:37Big Technology Podcast Host:sorry wasn't the entire like big controversy around the GPT-5 rollout that it would route your queries to the appropriate model? So they're not doing that anymore? Or how does that comport with what you're saying now?

34:51Ranjan Roy:No, no, no. Hold on. Those are two separate things because the GPT-5 rollout, wait, wait, you're talking about when people were mad that it wasn't sycophantic and they wanted to go back to the forum? No, no.

35:01Big Technology Podcast Host:I'm talking about how when GPT-5 rolled out, this is just in ChatGPT, right? ChatGPT would have its own built-in model router and said, oh, this is an easier query. we'll send it to a smaller model or this is a tougher query we'll send it to our most powerful model and you really couldn't pick now you can pick i guess well no so okay i i would put those

35:21Ranjan Roy:in two different categories around building an agentic workflow that's repeatable and like predictable and they're spending the time to assign the right model to the right task makes a lot of sense i now okay now like when gpt5 did have their model router so yeah i i I acknowledge people were backlashing because they were like, oh, I'm getting dumber stuff. It's not doing this in the right way. When you're just having a back and forth, like turn based conversation, that's not where I think this is valuable. And actually, that's like a good example where it was clumsy the way it was actually executed.

36:01Ranjan Roy:And in that exact kind of like situation, it's probably not the most useful thing. I think it could be useful because, again, as we both talked about, there's times where you ask Claude a basic question and it creates a 20-page PowerPoint deck and just goes on, scrapes half the web and does whatever in God's name it's trying to do. and having a little bit of a lighter flash model typey thing might be good. But yeah, so to me, it's more as you have a workflow that is predictable and kind of like you know what the different pieces of work are, that everyone should be a lot more. And they should be trying to lead that and they're not because it's not good for them.

36:44Big Technology Podcast Host:Right. And by the way, as we're talking, again, this all matters for the IPO because the growth and the dollars are going to be pretty important. when we see these S1s and when they actually go out. Well, there might be some overcharges happening because of the opacity of the system. So this is from the information. Anthropic customers find errant charges, auditing startup says. Some customers may be paying more for Anthropic and OpenAI products than they should due to billing inaccuracies, according to Vaudit, which sells an AI bill auditing tool. Okay, well, obviously they're going to find this stuff.

37:19Big Technology Podcast Host:Okay, I'll just read it. We can talk about it. Between March and June, Vaudit audited bills sent to 60 companies totaling$34 million, mostly for usage of Anthropics Cloud Code, and found about$1.7 million in mistaken overcharges. What we are observing in that enterprise AI billing has become increasingly opaque, Vaudit said. Errant billing isn't unique to AI, of course, and can be seen throughout enterprise software cloud services and online advertising do you think that this is a big problem and ai is basically like you send these tools like cloud code out to do stuff for you and because it's so opaque you have no idea whether you're being overcharged or not i mean 1.7 million of overcharges out of 34 million is is not insignificant at all my favorite part of

38:10Ranjan Roy:this story is just hearing you say vaudit audited i love this name vaudit that was a tongue twister

38:15Big Technology Podcast Host:Better than Terra Luna, but not exactly the easiest thing to say on the air.

38:21Ranjan Roy:Vaudit audited bills. So I think this is an issue. I actually am not as concerned, I think, as normally I would think I would be around it. More just because like, yes, okay, out of 34 million, 1.7 is like a pretty significant percentage. But again, when no one has been checking their bills, it makes sense that without any malice, there would be errors happening. Like it's just if no one had been checking their bills, digging into their bills, even knowing what they're spending. When you hear Uber surprised that they blew through their entire year's AI budget in a quarter, that shows that no one was carefully tracking things.

39:09So, of course, there's going to be certain errors.

39:12Ranjan Roy:Actually, one of the ones that was the most interesting part of that to me, though, was when the session times out or you don't get an answer, which happens plenty, are you responsible for the tokens? because it actually kind of cited that as an error i hadn't actually thought of that as a billing error before it's just kind of something you you just eat like it's just right in ai you're not it'll time out sometimes and that's how it works but like that actually made me think are customers responsible for any tokens consumed during that session and that could start to be more and more of an issue yeah that could add up i feel like it happens to

39:57Big Technology Podcast Host:me all the time multiple like multiple times a day where i ask something to a chat bot and it thinks a bit and then gives up well whatever's behind that i don't know but it is it's a problem yeah all this stuff is going to add up as we start to see these companies head towards the most significant financial event of their lifetimes for sure and then of course we have the precedent this will be the last financial uh sorry financial market story we do um on on this on this topic, but SpaceX obviously not faring very well. I mean, it shed about, I think it was down 15 % or so on the week. It's trading at 153.

40:37Big Technology Podcast Host:That's the way it closed Friday. And all this sort of ebullience over the fact that it was on this legendary run has certainly quieted down. It went to two and a half trillion market cap. It was bigger than, I think, bigger than Amazon for a moment now it's dropped down to two trillion which is still nothing to sneeze at but definitely less frothy than its earlier trajectory seemed like it was going to be at this point your thoughts i two trillion is frothy i mean like that's why two two and a half it i will

41:16Ranjan Roy:say that first week of the post ipo there are moments in any kind of cycle you remember and And that's going to stick with me when you saw like, I mean, Elon Musk is a trillionaire now. He's heading to two trillion. It's bigger. And remember, this is a company with$18.7 billion of revenue total. I mean, Amazon, it surpassed its market cap. Amazon has$750 billion in revenue. Like this is a company that's losing$4 billion. So which again, if you believe there's going to be data centers in space and you believe like all that, you can come up with the story behind it. But when you just kept seeing it climb, it got to like 215, I think, 215 near the highs.

42:08Ranjan Roy:And then it's like surpassing Amazon, surpassing Meta, closing in on Microsoft. I don't know. those are the moments that whatever shakes out in the next year or so, I will definitely remember. Yep.

42:24Big Technology Podcast Host:Okay. Let's go to our last story, which is that Apple has raised the prices on the Max iPads by$200 or more on some models. Fascinating thing is happening right now. Memory prices have gone up and now Apple is making its product lineups much more expensive. This is from Bloomberg. Apple raised prices on its Macs and iPads early Thursday morning, a week after chief executive Tim Cook said the soaring cost of memory and storage chips would force the company's hand. The company briefly took down its Apple online store early this morning as it typically does when announcing new products. That was Friday.

43:00Big Technology Podcast Host:When it came back online, the price tags for Mac computers rose roughly 15 to 20 percent and iPad prices rose 15 to 25 percent. Among the price increases the base macbook air rose from rose 200 to 1299 the base macbook pro increased 300 to 1999 uh the entry level macbook neo increased 100 to 699 the ipad air increased 150 to 749 and the ipad pro increased 200 to 1199 dollars um i have become a somewhat of a lightning rod on X this week because this was my reaction to the news. I wrote that Micron's gross margin was 84.9 % last quarter and Apple's was 49.3%. Sure, price hikes are supply and demand at work, but at a certain point it's greed.

44:07Big Technology Podcast Host:I don't know, man. I mean, yes, the memory prices have gone up, but as somebody pointed out, if you're building a data center filled with these things, then it makes sense to raise prices. If you're building a device with a little bit of it, probably not. This is the exact tweet. This is from Carl Peterson. I sell GPUs for living systems. Integrators buying two terabytes of RAM for a server have an excuse for raising prices. Prices Apple buying 8 gigabytes for a MacBook does not. Greed or supply and demand? What's your take on the Apple price hikes?

44:43Ranjan Roy:Greed. Do you know what my tell was? I don't know if the HomePod mini, as an owner of multiple ones, has any kind of storage. But it certainly does not have any meaningful storage. So to raise that by 30%, I think shows that they're just going across the board here. I like, and also the increase in memory has been, if they're saying that this is here to stay, and maybe that's actually a positive signal for the SanDiscs and Microns of the world. But like, to me, you have this kind of massive price hike of an input, but to change these like long supply chain type products and pricing this dramatically, it's, this is actually pretty shocking to me.

45:36Ranjan Roy:You change the price of a flight because the cost of oil goes up. That's dynamic. That's relatively quick up and down fluctuations. This is huge relative. And once it's done, they're just going to keep it there.

45:54Big Technology Podcast Host:Well, unless they have a corresponding decrease in sales because they need those devices in people's hands for their service businesses to be strong.

46:01Ranjan Roy:Yeah, but we're all locked in and can't escape the Apple ecosystem. And then, oh, wait, maybe they are so confident that Siri is going to be so good that they're like, guess what? Everything's going up and you guys aren't going anywhere because Siri is going to become your default AI in life. That's what's happening.

46:24Big Technology Podcast Host:right i mean tim cook calling the price hikes unavoidable is just like ridiculous and you know obviously like the when the device goes up 20 that's the entire price of the device so dram could be going up by whatever it is but you're not you're not gonna it doesn't the increase in dram price does not account for a 20 increase in the entire device price it's crazy like they're going to make margin off that. And not only that, they're responsible for it to a degree. This is an interesting tweet that I read that sort of captures the situation. Apple spent a decade squeezing memory makers below costs.

47:05Big Technology Podcast Host:One of them survived, finally got pricing power, and Apple is calling it gouging. I mean, they didn't use the word gouging, but they basically implied it. Two years ago, Micron was selling DRAM below the cost of making it, gross margins underwater, and the kind of bust that has killed memory makers for 30 years. A field that once had a dozen players had dozens of players consoled down to three survivors. Micron is here because it executed the downturns better than the ones that died, not because anyone was generous to it. The buyer is now screaming about 84.9 % margins. Apple and the hyperscalers are exactly the players who spent that decade grinding memory to negative margins on every procurement cycle.

47:41Big Technology Podcast Host:Sorry, go ahead.

47:43Ranjan Roy:No, no, actually, I'm curious. So you, should Apple do this?

47:50Big Technology Podcast Host:No, I don't think so. I think it's bad business. I mean, first of all, it's customer hostile, right? You're using an excuse to jack prices up. Second of all, like it's going to hit your services business. You want services, the one thing that's really growing within Apple. I mean, recently we've seen some growth with iPhone. You're going to want a robust service business if you're Apple. And the way you do that is you get devices in people's hands.

48:14Ranjan Roy:But they've been actually, so they have been, I just had looked up the price of the premium iPhone model in the last seven years is up 65%. So it went from 969, which I think anyone who gets the new Pro Max, whatever, always has seen, it just keeps going up and up and up. And I mean, I think I am a example that I don't buy the new iPhones because I don't feel I need to, but I'm paying way too much in services businesses for things I forget about. So maybe in that case if you don't have the devices that's like a good example i guess it's just i don't know the confidence or maybe cockiness to raise prices this much and think it's not gonna just like crush demand they have to be modeling this out somehow or they have to something must be behind that

49:09Big Technology Podcast Host:if you're tim cook and you're trying to do john turnus a favor what you do is you maybe aggressively increase prices now of course the the products that are that are being jacked up they're they're not a massive part of apple's business but they're big enough

49:23Ranjan Roy:and the price will go up on the iphone it's ipad and macbook so if you're tim cook and you want to

49:30Big Technology Podcast Host:set john turnus up in the best place you jack prices up because of global memory shortage uh if the if demand remains somewhat consistent then you deliver turnus you know huge profits as he begins running the company if demand goes down you give turnus the enviable position of saying i am john turnus i am the price cutter i am going to cut prices to spark demand and you will love me now so either way option cook call option cook he's giving

50:04Ranjan Roy:yeah these giving uh turn is the greatest call option of all time okay i i like this one i like this uh direction it's a win-win um but yeah i i this i was genuinely shocked by this and trying to kind of like just chalk it up to uh chalk it up to short-term increases in memory prices that It might be here to stay, but still, I was pretty shocked. Yeah.

50:35Big Technology Podcast Host:I mean, someone told me, like, do you think it's a charity project or something about Apple when I said it was greed? And I said, obviously, get your bag if you're Apple, but it doesn't mean you're beyond reproach and I'm reproaching. I mean, of course, it's not a charity, but you don't have to, like, cheer on companies that are greedy. This is from Scott Heiferman, the founder of Meetup. Apple is, was a change the world project. Make insanely great products for as many people as possible. Good profit makes sense. Beyond that isn't the point of the project. Asking if it's a charity project or something is the question statement of the truly naive.

51:15Big Technology Podcast Host:Preach, Scott, preach.

51:17Ranjan Roy:I like your reproaching. I am reproaching. I am reproaching. I'm reproaching you, Tim.

51:23Big Technology Podcast Host:I'm reproaching. and uh i don't know if they don't let me into the next wwc i i really couldn't care less uh

51:30Ranjan Roy:too much reproaching no reproaching if you want entry but you will reproach you'll reproach

51:37Big Technology Podcast Host:i'll reproach all right two things before we leave um i want to say thank you to you ranjan and thanks to everybody who joined us at the summit last week we've obviously been putting some of the interviews up we'll have the greg brockman interview in full up this coming wednesday It was a good time, wasn't it?

51:55Ranjan Roy:I had a great time. Thank you for everyone who came out. And it was fun. We do this virtually, sometimes in person together, but just meeting all our listeners in person. That was a lot of fun.

52:09Big Technology Podcast Host:It was really cool. So thank you, everybody. And if you weren't there, obviously, we're trying to get as much of the content to you as possible. So we'll have the Brockman interview this Wednesday. and then we will go back to our normal podcast style, aka in studio or remote, one-on-one conversations with no audience starting the following Wednesday with Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth. So stay tuned for that. All right, round jump before we go. Tech industry lost a giant this week. Om Malik, the blogger, founder of GigaOM, VC at True Ventures, passed away on June 24th. This is from his blog. He passed away at Stanford Hospital after a long health journey with his heart.

52:55Big Technology Podcast Host:He was surrounded by friends and family. Om was 59. Just a word about Om. I mean, if you've seen any of the tributes online this week, you could tell that he was very generous with his time and his advice to anybody in the industry. you know i he's been on the show of course we had a great conversation with him not long ago and we definitely lost one of the good ones and uh the the night the nice thing about om is he really he seemed to care about everybody in the industry i mean when he started talking to me i was like wait om knows what big technology is and he knows who i am that's the craziest thing but he was read in and humble and um and kind of blunt and like uh in a fun way i remember I was sitting next to him at WWDC or some Apple event, and he had been writing these columns from The New Yorker, and another journalist was like, Om, how do you write for The New Yorker?

53:50Big Technology Podcast Host:And he just looked the guy in the face and smiled, and he goes, because I'm good. And he really was. I don't know if you have any memories or reflections on Om, but definitely he kicked off the modern tech blog era for sure.

54:06Ranjan Roy:No, so for me, having never been a full-time writer, but writing plenty, I'd gotten in touch with him a number of years ago. never met him in person but when i was start running a startup in 2013 and just you know like trying to get into tech crunch and giga ohm and stuff like that what amazed me is he responded and we actually exchanged emails and he was just like you know friendly versus so much of the i mean just overall ecosystem as a whole and i think the most important it's like yeah he he blogged I mean, he got me interested. He was one of the first blogs I started to read and actually got me interested in the whole new media thing.

54:55Ranjan Roy:So, yeah, seeing all the outpouring and everything, it was pretty special. Yeah.

55:02Big Technology Podcast Host:I don't know if this – I'm going to just read this. So Katie Jacobs-Stanton, who was a VC and was a Twitter executive, posted this letter that Om wrote to her when her father passed away. and I think that like when people experience loss sometimes it can be difficult to like to hit the right tone and I think this letter that Om wrote really did hit the right tone I'm just going to read it and we can sort of end with this he wrote dear Katie I read the sad news you shared last night on Twitter and I wanted to take a moment and send you my thoughts prayers and hugs to get you through this tough time we all have a habit of mourning what we don't have instead of celebrating all the gifts we are bestowed upon.

55:43Big Technology Podcast Host:His life was a gift to you. I didn't know your father, but it's clear that his grandness lives in you and yours. Your compassion and empathy for the human condition is a gift of your parenting, and I hope you can remember that when there is a moment of sadness that shakes up your world. I hope you find his memories and his lessons a guiding light for the future with much love and prayers for your family. I mean, just beautifully written and honestly a lot of the same can be said about Om today so rest in peace Om, one of the good ones I know we typically end on a laugh but I think that that yeah Om's presence in the tech industry, around the tech industry brought a lot of joy to a lot of people and so we'll do our best to live his legacy on in the ways that we can

56:39Big Technology Podcast Host:okay well we'll see you next time on big technology podcast

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