Is Social Media Doomed To Die? — With Ellis Hamburger

27:24But then again, Apple, as slow as a snail's pace, their innovation is. They've had 10 years to catch up little by little with iMessage and these other messaging apps, adding more social features where they may be able to seize that opportunity now. Yeah, this is also from the story. It's such a good encapsulation of what the user side of it is. You say in our own eternal quest for social validation, we're out for growth too. We readily give in to convenient advertiser-friendly features like stories, which prioritize broadcasting over We're simply communicating. We had more and more friends because it feels good until our close friend group has become our audience.

28:05People want to be a product. Technology writer, Rob Horning, wrote to me via email. So I guess like to think that this is an experience, I mean, this is kind of what we've been talking about over in this first half is like, you know, is it the companies or is it the users? And the companies would make the argument we're doing what they want. And you kind of you acknowledge it to some extent that like, yeah, like part of us actually do want it. So it's kind of interesting. Like it's if if companies go ahead and build these light patterns and build these experiences that are, you know, more nutritious or whatever you want to refer to them as.

28:43It's still kind of an open question of whether people will go for it. It's true. It's true. And I think as leaders, de facto leaders of society, shaping the products that we spend, what, four or five hours a day in every day, I do think it is incumbent on them to make some moral, ethical decisions to the extent they can. You know, there is enough choice that in the market that making some of these decisions is not a de facto rule for the entire society to live by in the event that people disagree with them. You know, there are options. And I don't think there has been enough leadership from tech having some opinion about what a healthier, richer, more fulfilling life could be.

29:37And that's, I think, the side of the communication that I think Snap missed on over the years was being a bit clearer and leading on that. You know, I don't know if you remember the Snap Real Friends campaign. That was something I worked on very, very closely. And I'm happy with how it came out in heroing incredible, rich, hilarious, weird, real friendships from across the globe. But all I wanted was just to take it one step further and turn it into an opinion that, Real friends matter more than followers. All of a sudden, it's a philosophy. It's a political statement. It's a rallying cry to help people make better decisions for themselves.

30:17But then again, as Rob said, we are in America. People want to be a product. They build their brands for a reason. And I don't think it's fully one or the other. I just look to the tech companies and think, hey, guys, you have this opportunity to try and do what you said you wanted to do. make the world a better place. And so do it. It's a great point. And it's also like we like so much in American society and global society, everything is polarized, right? So instead of having like a constructive conversation like this one, what was typically happens is you have, you know, tech builders who are, you know, oftentimes like, you know, build baby build, and we'll just figure out the rest later.

30:59And we will follow the incentives of the market, you know, to the sometimes destruction of the experiences that we're building. And you've seen, I mean, look at all what's happened to social media. It's sort of inarguable that that's gone on there. And then you have like the Tristan Harris's of the world. And there's just, you know, a lot of talking past each other and not a lot of constructive dialogue. So I like what you're saying. Like maybe there's a way to put this in the hands of tech to actually create the leadership that will bring us to the next era. And I often wonder if the CEOs even have an opinion.

31:37You know, I think that's something I've thought about a lot over the years. When I was at The Verge, I interviewed probably hundreds of founders and CEOs. And, you know, how many of these CEOs are equipped to be society's leaders? They got to where they are by ignoring everyone in order to build their company. everyone who said it wasn't going to work. And on the one hand, you could be like, oh, that's just conviction in your idea. On the other, is there something in that personality that isn't fully weighing the feelings of the 99 % of people who say that their idea isn't good? And I like that there are people who really just go and do exactly what they want to do and take a chance and build something amazing.

32:30I do think, you know, all innovation is unexpected. But I think the point I'm trying to make is that I don't necessarily think those qualities are always shared with people who should be leaders in society. So many of them are business people. I think certainly in my years, I've connected most with, you know, founders who are more on the product and design side, because I think even just a design thinking background makes you feel a little bit differently about how your products might affect people. But it's not so easy for these companies to just start doing the right thing when I don't think a lot of them even know what the right thing is.

33:05And I don't know if there is one right thing, but I think everybody in a position of power should be trying to do what they think is right for the world. And there's, you know, it's also like the world demands and maybe like the market will open up an opportunity like to build a type of technology like you say, if there's this, if there is this inherent demand among people to use products that are different from what we have today. And I imagine there will be like, I imagine there will be a demand for people to, you know, have more nutritious and nutrient rich experiences with social apps. And maybe what we're seeing with blue sky and saw what be real is, is a hint of that.

33:44So, you know, it's funny, it can be done, you know, like I have a toddler now and you're making just, and you're making choices about what to buy for them. And why do you buy the honest company? Is it because the product is necessarily better? I don't know. I haven't tried all of these products on every single diaper, every single juice box, but the intent, the message, the vision is that we're trying to build something healthier and more eco-friendly. And people want to make the right decisions. You just got to help them see a little bit more what it is. And obviously, it's still up to them at the end of the day and people still eat a whole bag of Cheetos.

34:28But I do think it's possible through storytelling and having great products, too, to make something that is whatever, more social friendly, eco friendly, mental health friendly. It's a spectrum. Ellis Hamburger is here with us. He does storytelling at the Browser Company, former head of marketing strategy at Snap, former reporter at The Verge. We've talked a lot about the evolution of social media here on the first half. In the second half, we'll talk a little bit more about what practically happened at Snap. And we'll also cover maybe some of the other social media companies that have come and gone or are still on the rise like Be Real and Blue Sky.

35:05Back right after this. Capital One's tech team isn't just talking about multi-agentic AI. They already deployed one. It's called Chat Concierge, and it's simplifying car shopping. using self-reflection and layered reasoning with live API checks. It doesn't just help buyers find a car they love. It helps schedule a test drive, get pre-approved for financing, and estimate trade in value. Advanced, intuitive, and deployed. That's how they stack. That's technology at Capital One. These days, it feels like every dollar should be working a little harder, but figuring out where to put your cash can be confusing.

35:44That's where Wealthfront comes in. Wealthfront is a tech-driven financial platform built to help you grow your savings into long-term wealth. Their high-yield cash account through program banks offers a 3.5 % APY on your uninvested cash as of November 7, 2025. And there are no monthly fees, no minimum or maximum balance to earn that rate, and you can even make free instant withdrawals to eligible accounts in just minutes, 24-7. So your money can always be within reach. Right now, Wealthfront is offering new clients an extra 0.65 % APY over the base rate for three months on up to a$150 ,000 balance.

36:20That's a total of 4.15 % variable APY when you open your first cash account. Go to wealthfront.com slash big tech to sign up today. This is a paid testimonial for Wealthfront. It may not reflect the experience of others and there's no guarantee of future performance or success. Wealthfront brokerage is not a bank. Rate is subject to change. Promo terms and conditions apply. For more information, see the episode description.

36:44And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast with Ellis Hamburger, the storytelling at the browser company, former head of marketing strategy at Snap. we left off in the first half talking about talking about some of the broader philosophy let's talk a little bit about the path that you saw and we touched on it in the first half a bunch but how snap went from this company that wanted to be healthier to one that ended up disregarding a lot of you know the better practices that you think might have might helped the company overall? Sure. You know, the first thing I want to say, I think, is that I don't want people to come away from this thinking that there is a very nefarious scheme on the part of every single founder to bait and switch their product for something else.

37:37I think it's a very, very, very slippery thing. And you see it in little decisions that happen every day on a platform. You see it with the hiring of product managers who have very specific goals that they need to meet, whether you call them OKRs or KPIs or whatever. And that is the entire thing. Once you've chosen a specific metric for a group or a person to follow, and maybe the company gets sufficiently big enough that the CEO is maybe a bit more out of touch than they were, certainly when you have a billion users, It can be pretty easy to feel out of touch with what users are wanting. You feel that slow, slippery slide toward that misalignment, I think, between the product and the users.

38:24And that's why I think it's so very important, I've learned, to have a founder, a CEO, a design leader who is incredibly close to that product and the perception of it amongst people. You know, a lot of these companies have research teams, whether it's Snap or Microsoft or Facebook, notoriously, I think, because I had a huge research team. I have one of their old research books called Grouped on the Shelf. But it's hard for me to say that they were ever fully taken seriously, especially when so much of the pressure comes from once you found that growth getting to your exit. That is the entire contract that you signed with venture capitalists from the get-go.

39:02And you don't want to fire employees. People came from other companies to join your startup for lower compensation because of hope that there'd be an exit. You want to help people cash out and live the life that you promised them. You don't want to do layoffs. You want to be a celebrity and grow and get richer yourself. All these things play in to those little decisions, I think, that over time add up to a very differently changing product. And I think one specific thing I didn't mention in the article at Snap that comes to mind, because Snap had tried so hard over the years to try and do these behaviors that push people in the right direction, like how hard it was to add a friend.

39:48And then I remember once the quick ad screen came in that made it easier to find and add people. And on the one hand, it's like, well, we have a hunch that people are adding the people that they would have added anyway. But for a real friends network, that's actually a pretty big philosophical change. all of a sudden with one click, you've made it that much easier to add people and turn that messaging platform, that close friends platform into just another broadcast platform that falls victim to those popularity contests, the context collapse, those other patterns that come in. And that was something that was controversial internally.

40:31And it's hard to say that Snap did it for the growth for the IPO or afterwards or whatever, but why else would it be? and little features like that all of a sudden end up pretty profoundly changing the feeling of these products and the atmosphere they kind of cultivate. And then, of course, when the little growth hack thing starts working, you can't turn that off. Especially if you're public. Because that's how, yeah, especially if you're public. I mean, and that's the job of every product manager in Silicon Valley is not to innovate, but to get little incremental gains because that's what Wall Street demands.

41:09they want incremental, straightforward growth. And taking those big stabs once you're public is just always controversial. And I think it's kind of a lose-lose in a lot of ways. Exactly. Yeah. You talked about the friction at Snap in the story. You say, when you're gunning for an IPO, there's simply no way to justify keeping things small. Little frictions are removed one by one. Research and development goes more into content than messaging and low and behold, the growth comes. Indeed. See, I think that's a similar point as before. It's just like, we all know what works. And you see it in so many industries that race to the bottom once these secrets are discovered.

42:01And as I mentioned or hyperlinked in the first paragraph, you know, the part that bothered me about it is that we had been very clear about not wanting to do growth hacking. And I was an evangelist for that. You know, I welcome new hires every week with a presentation that was incredibly heartfelt about the philosophy at Snap, which I still in many ways believe in the core tenets of. And then when you go back on something like that, without even mentioning it, you know, like, is there a world where as a founder, you do a vlog and are like, guys, here's what's up. Yeah. You know, growth is being demanded of us.

42:46I'm conflicted. There's this little thing called quick ad that we want to try. And please let us know if you feel like it's making the experience worse. we know it's probably going to make the numbers go up, but we need to hear from you guys. If it's really making things, things different. I don't know if that's the best example because it's so subtle, but I think maybe you get the idea. I do. And of course there's the push notification and that's kind of how our conversation about this started because so be real. It's tanked. It's done terribly. And there was a moment in October where I noticed be real in October 22, I noticed Be Real spamming me with these push notifications about how like it's time to be real or whatever, or someone posted late, whatever.

43:32It was just some stuff that like did not belong and a notification level of urgency. And I tweeted Be Real just started to push notification spam. This app is toast on October 23rd, 2022. So recently that there was this story that came out about how Be Real's apps, monthly downloads have slipped. And the peak was, you won't believe it, but October, where it has gone from 15 million then to 6 million in March, the daily active users. And I tweeted, folks, it's a universal truth. When an app starts sending push notification spam, that is the end. And so it goes for Be Real. And you actually in the story have this anecdote where you started getting these notifications to message people for their birthday.

44:16And you were like, uh-oh, something is clearly wrong here. You want to expand on that? For sure. And I take product design and app development probably too seriously. But to me, the apps we use are the forks, the knives, the chairs, the furniture, the tools, the products of our everyday life now, and they deserve to be taken seriously. And to me, push notifications, just in general, are probably one of the worst inventions in the history of technology, in that 99 % of the push notifications you get aren't urgent, but interrupt you. And I think Apple has tried to, over the years, limit its effect on you, group them, have summaries at the beginning, at the end of the day.

45:05At least they're trying to help people wrestle control over this stuff that's addictive. But people have a sense that it's kind of fragmenting their mind and not allowing them to focus. And so when these products do send that first irrelevant push notification, here's the thing. The way that like digital marketing works is the exact same. Like, I don't know if most people know this, but like most ads, if they get seen a hundred times, like less than five people are going to click on it. And if five or six do, it's considered a success. But what about the impact on the other 95? you know like no one really talks about that and it's the same thing with push notifications which is that well we know it's going to work some extent to get those incremental hashtag gains but what is it doing for the rest of the population and these products are so critical and foundational in our lives i'm specifically thinking of how facebook's notifications got utterly destroyed over the years.

46:09No one quits because the foundational product is still that valuable. And so I think that's another perfect example of where if you just listen to people and they said, hey, I'm actually like getting closer and closer to quitting Facebook because every time I open my notification pane, it's essentially just the same things in my newsfeed. But in another more urgent looking badge pain that that that pesters me, maybe they would know. And then before you know it, it hits a precipice and all the teens leave. Yeah. There isn't respect for your time and interrupting you. And, you know, I think over the years, Snap experimented first with silent push notifications, ones that actually wouldn't vibrate your phone.

46:53And that was nice. Just a little gesture, you know, how much did that even hurt the engagement of those push notifications? Probably, probably not even that much. But then snap started experimenting with story notifications, birthday notifications. And what's funny is I actually haven't received a birthday notification since then. Um, and so that's kind of what led me to believe it might be like earnings related. Like we're trying to get another DAU or whatever. Uh, and, and that's not a new thing. It's been reported on that Facebook and Instagram and others turn on the notifications, uh, when they need it, you know, cause they work.

47:27They do work. Okay. So we have about 10 minutes left. I have three questions I want to ask you. Maybe we can lightning round through them if you're up for it. Sure. So the first one is maybe that new form of social media is actually that we were looking for. The one that like is all about interactions with friends and family and not driven by broadcasting. Maybe that new social network never emerges and it's just messaging apps. Yeah, I think it's entirely possible. I think what's missing from the messaging apps is the idea of posting to a small circle. messaging apps too, people hesitate to message something to friends or family or especially a group because it's going to buzz someone's phone, right?

48:09I think there has to be a way. This is one of the nice, beautiful things when a new social platform comes out. Everybody loves Peach or Be Real or Snapchat or any others that have come out in the last several years when that graph is small. posting to a small graph is really fun because you check when you want, you get little lightweight posts, things people are thinking about, but they wouldn't want to bother you about, wouldn't want to buzz your phone about. That stuff is awesome and precious. And it's kind of like the stuff that you would say to a friend, if you bumped into them in person, you know, that you might not hear in a text or a call.

48:47Otherwise that stuff is really nice. And so I've always been a big believer in small scale social. And I think someone needs to try it. Sorry. It wasn't, uh, wasn't a quick answer. Oh, that's good. No, we're tracking. All right. So it's perfect segue into what you think about Blue Sky and what will make this. I mean, obviously, like this app is taking off. What do you think will make this app work? Yeah, I think Blue Sky is once again in that beautiful early social period where the only people using it are the ones who love to talk and have fun. And it is a fun. It is. It's like being at happy hour with everyone in media or in tech or whatever.

49:24And a lot of the people who are negative don't want to jump in just yet because they know they'll just get roasted, which I think I've been seeing on Blue Sky. Like the vibes are good on every new platform when the network is small. However, I do not see any reason to believe that Blue Sky is going to take off because I think there are a handful of very critical criteria for a platform to start working. And to the extent that people have ever started using these platforms, like let's call it Instagram. It starts with a cross-posting behavior and typically a new creative format from that platform, which is something like Blue Sky unfortunately doesn't have a new creative format.

50:08People are cross-posting to the other platforms. It makes its way onto their home screen. They start checking it every day. And once they have that realization that the two feeds are more or less similar, you stop using Facebook and you start using Instagram exclusively. And I think that's what needs to happen for something like Blue Sky to succeed, given that the product of Twitter is clearly not the product. The product has been slow data rate and often in shambles for a decade. The product is the network. And I think there really needs to be going back to leadership, a big movement from leaders, which may include companies, to try and start cross posting and getting people over there.

50:49because it doesn't have that carrot that so many other new social platforms have had in the past with the new format that is the fun new thing to play with that keeps you there. If it's the network alone, all that matters is if you check both those apps every day. And I think the vibes of the existing moment on Blue Sky, you know, could be really good within tech and within the industry at large. But if I've learned anything about these platforms, you know, it has to go farther than that. I mean, what do we have? dozens of examples of, I saw Clubhouse was unfortunately doing a layoff. You know, there was every reason within tech to believe that that was going to be a smash and then it's not.

51:28You know, I don't think there's a big correlation between hits and tech and hits more broadly. That's right. Okay. So like last, last one for you, snaps business. We have to talk about it. I mean, the earnings, every quarter, it just seems like the news gets worse and worse. And this most recent quarter was a quarter where Facebook did well. And then you'd imagine, okay, well, maybe Snap gets some of that benefit with people picking up on social spending, but it missed terribly and starts getting, I've never seen this before, but getting lectured by analysts on the earnings call saying like, you don't have the luxury to invest in augmented reality.

52:07Why don't you focus on the core business? And then once you start making some money, then you can, then you could do this stuff. So what do you think about the state of the business? and do you see any bright spots? Yeah, it's been tough and full disclosure as a shareholder, frustrating to watch. I think the vision for AR monetization at scale has been a vision for several years now and I think it's yet to pan out at scale. I think there's still brand advertisers that love it, but it hasn't really taken off and I'm not sure if there's really been a lot of clarity on why that is and when it's going to happen.

52:46You know, it's been something that's been promised for a long time. With that said, I'm actually really bullish on the AI execution with my AI. I think in all likelihood at the next earnings, Snap is going to be able to say we have 30, 40 million AI DAU on mobile. And I don't know who else can say that. And in the world of AI right now, as you've written, no one knows how it's going to make money or how it's going to be monetized yet, but clearly money is being poured into this thing. That's exactly where growth companies like Snap like to live in the world of creating innovations, distributing them incredibly broadly.

53:21Hopefully this time, though, they're thinking about monetization a little bit earlier in the process, not so that it can hurt the experience, but that the company can continue to survive and start to build hopefully very thoughtful monetization into the new things that they're building, given that early mover advantage that they now have on mobile. So I think that's really exciting. I do think the brand remains an issue for advertisers and also for consumers to really take it seriously. But at the end of the day, if that is where your first impression and the easiest accessibility to AI is and you're a teenager or young adult using Snap 30 times a day, I think there's reason to believe that there can be a big business there.

54:05but as always who knows when that's going to come I think everybody's just trying to build the biggest daily user base of AI users they can right now but that'll certainly get you right back into the growth category in terms of stocks so I assume that'll bode well for them. And full circle they do have like a pretty successful subscription product Snapchat Plus which unlike Twitter Blue is actually being subscribed to by millions of people three million people subscribe to it, which, you know, going back to our discussion about how advertising and all that influences the business model, maybe that's also a ray of hope.

54:44Yeah. I mean, is it successful? I don't know. 3 million out of 350 million DAU or whatever. I don't know. Maybe it is. I just wonder what metric you're thinking of it by. I certainly was happy to see it and love how much is going into it. You just wonder if they can offer a killer enough feature that it really becomes mainstream. You know, that's that's the tough one. Yeah, that's hard. Right. And you see cosmetics, decorations, fun tricks, games working in, you know, the online games like Fortnite and whatnot. But for something like Snap that didn't monetize its core behavior, even to this day, you wonder if the whole bag of tricks can really be enough to monetize the entire user base the way I think Wall Street and investors always hoped.

55:31but uh i'm hopeful and uh wishing them the best of luck on it right and that's the thing with messaging right it's just like snaps growing so much faster than like something like a twitter but it's just so hard to monetize the messaging end and that's where you end up like yeah like we talked about in the beginning pushing people to discover trying to figure out anything that can get that engagement up and you just i don't know it's it's tough sledding i think whatsapp could have done it as such a utility and so much effort on their part put into infrastructure and speed. And it was, you know, a cultural colossus in so many countries.

56:11Would people pay a dollar a month or a year for it? You've got to believe they would. But I hate to say it was something like Snap that I believe is incredibly fun and enriching to do with friends. People just don't take it quite as seriously and never have. And I've pitched a lot of advertisers and written a lot of decks for them. It's like, guys, isn't the most fun you have in your life fooling around and drinking and being goofball with your friends? Yes. Okay. But that feels frivolous as an adult. And I think for that reason, it's a tough sell to try and monetize that core messaging component.

56:47and yeah, it's just, it's tragic. Yeah. Well, Ellis, great to hear you. I'm glad you're speaking it up. It's really good to hear your voice from this stuff. Great to read your writing and I appreciate you being here with us today. Thanks for having me, Alex. And that'll do it for us here on Big Technology Podcast. Thank you so much, Ellis Hamburger for joining us. Always great to have a conversation with you. Thank you, Nate Kowatny for handling our audio. Thank you, LinkedIn for having me as part of your podcast network. Thanks to all of you, the listeners. Appreciate you coming back week after week on Friday.

57:16We are going to post an episode, a crossover episode, looking at the week's news with the Tech Meme Ride Home podcast. Brian McCullough will be joining us or will be joining him, depending on which feed you'll be listening on. I'm very, very excited about that. So please do come back on Friday. And until then, take care. We will see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.