Predicting the SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs — With Dick Costolo

24:26Big Technology Podcast Host:But there's a lot – But the money has to come from somewhere. Where is it going to come from? Again, another advantage to going first or going second and not going third is there's not infinite capital out there. You're going to want to be in one or two of these things and then probably not all three, although we'll see. and they're going to require a lot of capital. And I think the advantage of going first is you have access to everybody's liquidity. And then you go second, you have access to some of that liquidity. And then when you go third, like, well, we're – we put this much into SpaceX and this much into Anthropik.

25:08And we're – I'm sort of capped out on my public – the percentage of money I devote to public equities, et cetera, et cetera.

25:17Big Technology Podcast Host:Do you think though – Well, let me ask you. Go ahead. The investors, the public market investors – There are all sorts of secondary effects on here though. Right, but they must be making contingencies, right? They go through these planning cycles where they're like, I'm going to want a piece of all these companies. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I'm going to have much more money available than previously, but maybe not. We'll see. Because if you don't do that and somebody else comes in and gets OpenAI for cheap, you just messed up in a big way. We'll see. We'll see. There's such – as you already said, even though those market caps are not the amount of money that's sloshing around and on the supply-demand side of the shares that are floated, it's still – there's still big numbers and there's not infinite capital out there.

25:59The interesting other thing that will happen is there's been so much illiquidity in the private markets. You've got all these university endowments and venture LPs, et cetera, that haven't had their big liquidity events that are now going to be flush with distributions of SpaceX and Anthropic and OpenAI that are going to be able to turn around and pour a bunch more money into the early stage venture capital again. that have been maybe people who, hey, like I'm already, you know, SpaceX is marked up to this. It's on a markup basis. It's now this percentage of my portfolio. It's only supposed to be 7 or 8 percent.

26:43It's now 15 percent. Can't invest in new venture funds. That becomes liquid. You get your big SpaceX distribution. You've got a lot of money to go invest in venture capital again. And so there will probably be six to 12 months down the road a great time to go raise venture capital from LPs.

27:02Big Technology Podcast Host:Right. And the sort of question is, well, what can you invest in that doesn't get eaten by these companies? Yeah. Well, I mean that is something you have to be thinking about if you're a venture investor for sure. Yeah. All right. Let's talk a little bit about where this story can sort of unravel, where it could go wrong. Let me give you one scenario here, which is I was speaking with an investor recently about the margins that these companies, these big AI companies are getting. And I thought, well, they can easily raise the price because the economic value that they're creating is so great that you could double the price and most people would pay that price.

27:40Big Technology Podcast Host:This investor said, no, they're so close to parity that you're much more likely to see a price war than you are to see a across the board price raise. And then I had to agree with him. I think that's – I agree with that. And so if that happens, then how do you justify these massive valuations for the open AI and anthropics of the world? I agree with that sentiment. I actually think there's a bigger challenge for them. And it's something that is growing in the news, which is the public backlash against where's all the compute going to come from and are these data centers that have been already committed to and approved by the county commissioners and blah, blah, blah.

28:26Are they really going to keep happening? I mean, you know, the one that's been in the news a lot is the Utah data center, just north of Salt Lake, that Kevin O 'Leary, the Shark Tank investor from the Canadian Shark Tank. Whoever's in charge, who's ever actually the money behind this thing, and I actually don't know who it is. Why they picked Kevin O 'Leary, a Canadian Shark Tank guy, as the face of this is anybody's guess.

28:56Big Technology Podcast Host:But it's funny when we talked about this before, you mentioned these Canadians are like, why are you in a U.S. infrastructure project? Fine. But I would say the bigger problem is he was the face of FTX. Not the guy. Right. Somebody picked this guy and he's going out and doing big public interviews on both the right – he was on the Tucker Carlson thing. You've got the right that really doesn't want this thing to be built. Progressives and others who are like, you know, it's going to do this to the environment and it's really not going to create a bunch of jobs. It's going to be just this huge problem in Utah.

29:34He's getting smushed in these interviews. And he's not prepared for these interviews. I mean, the Tucker Carlson interview was like not dissimilar to the Ted Cruz Tucker Carlson interview. He just got crushed. So I think there's actually going to be a growing – there is a growing backlash against, hey, not in my backyard on these data centers. And we'll – I mean the computer has to come from somewhere and these things have to get built. And that's going to be – that's a real problem for these companies should that become a – this is like the only thing I can think of that unites the right and the left in the country right now is I don't want you to build one of these things in my backyard.

30:16Big Technology Podcast Host:Yeah, a recent Gallup poll said seven out of ten Americans don't want them. The other three people don't know what – yeah. The other three people aren't – haven't seen what one looks like. It's probably the other three got a check in the mail or something like that because they're widely unpopular. If you give a commencement speech and you say anything about AI, they'll boo you out of the stadium like we've seen recently with Eric Schmidt. So that could be a real – it's the idea that there could be moratoriums. There was one that was proposed in Maine that got vetoed by the governor. But it's being brought up by national politicians.

30:50Big Technology Podcast Host:The idea that moratoriums could happen, maybe not tomorrow, but like it's going to be on the ballot in 2028. There are going to be pro-moratorium candidates. Yeah. So the interesting thing about all this is because, you know, you've got – I mean what has Silicon Valley spent, you know, the last two weeks gossiping about the Elan, Sam, Brockman, you know, Brockman diaries? I'm sure he regrets having a diary, but – You don't have a diary, do you? I don't have a diary. I had one in Bern. I had one in Bern. No, I don't have a diary. While these guys have been like, you know, I know you are, but what am I in court?

31:33The real challenge is they should be helping Americans understand this is why it's important we win. Here's what happens if we don't build these data. It's not a hard – it's challenging. It's not the most difficult challenge in the world. If we don't do these things, you know, it's a fairly straightforward story. We don't do these things. China wins. If China wins, we lose. If we're the follower, we don't get to vote on a lot of things happening or not happening. They're going to tell us whether that happens or doesn't happen. And they're not telling that story right now to people.

32:09Big Technology Podcast Host:The China thing can be too abstract for, let's say, a college student who's like, I don't know if I'm going to have a job. I get it. And if I was sitting at Arizona, University of Arizona, and Eric Schmidt told me about AI, and I didn't have a job lined up coming out of college, I would be booing. I mean, I didn't have a job coming out of school as it was when I graduated. And if I heard anything like that, oh, man, I'd be ready to boo. Yeah. Yeah. They're just – you better start telling the story. Right. And there's no time like the present. Like you haven't been telling it in the past. And again, Americans' perception of these guys is they're like bickering about who's going to be the more rich in court and, you know, I know you're name-calling and et cetera.

32:53And that coupled with now you want to go build this thing next to my house is a bad look. And so they just need to be a lot more focused on the external narrative about this is why this is important to the future of our society. and it's not happening at all right now.

33:13Big Technology Podcast Host:So let me challenge the economic benefit part of this and see what you think. So another place this could go wrong is, are these companies going to create enough benefit for others using them? This is, Chamath had an interesting tweet. He said - Wait, Chamath had an interesting tweet? Yeah, I like this one. Well, I guess he does that often. They're all super interesting. So let me read this. In an early meeting at Facebook when I was describing the goals of Facebook platform, an area I oversaw, Bill Gates yelled at me. Wait a minute. You got to love, comma, an area I oversaw. That's right. Yeah.

33:50Big Technology Podcast Host:Okay. He said his quote has stuck with me to this day. This isn't a platform. A platform is where the collective sum of revenues of the participants exceeds those of the platform itself. So the platform is something that's so useful that the companies that use you make more money than you make. I think that's a good definition. Yeah. There's an article in the information, Anthropic and OpenAI's share of AI startup revenue rises to 89%. Yeah. That's not a platform according to that definition. Yeah, correct. I agree. I mean, not wrong. But that doesn't mean they won't be able to be wildly successful.

34:30If you're increasing the productivity of every Fortune 500 company and beyond by not just 10%, 20%, but orders of magnitude, that's an extraordinary amount of value. Wouldn't we have seen a corresponding increase in earnings? Well, we'll see. I mean, again, if you look at six months ago and you tried to foot out, hey, we're not going to need all this compute. And, hey, these companies are never going to be able to be profitable. You would have been right if that continued to be the trajectory. Trajectory. And then along comes agentic coding and up everything goes. So we'll see. One can easily imagine there are two or three or four more of those unlocks that we haven't seen yet that are coming.

35:16Big Technology Podcast Host:Yeah. It could just be that that is – that's simply been applied to coding work and it can start working for all different types of work. Sure. Which is what they want. So, OK. One last thing to run by you, and then we're going to take a break. This is – we had one of our commenters talk about the fact that, like, Microsoft has pulled back a little bit from OpenAI and Apple has not participated in this moment. They said Microsoft and Apple come from real innovations and use cases. Executing LLMs is expensive, risky trash for grifters, and they know it. There is no paradigm shift without Apple and Microsoft on board.

35:53Big Technology Podcast Host:So why should they take the risks of building these models driven by stolen data? This stuff is toxic and they know. Could you find someone who has a stronger opinion and is less equivocal in their commentary? Let's see. It's unclear whether that was a choice Apple made or an inability to do whatever they needed to be doing. I found it. It's surprising how Siri or iMessage, for example, have been so impossibly slow to keep pace with what appear to be things that AI startups with 10 or 12 people have been extraordinarily successful at, like text-to-speech or speech-to-text. Granola, for example, does a 100 times better job of interpreting what I'm saying than Siri does, which seems – I would imagine has orders of magnitude, more people and resources focused on it.

36:54So I don't think it's that Apple has seen that what OpenAI and Anthropoc are doing is, you know, grifting. I don't think that's the case at all. And I think Microsoft pulling back from the OpenAI relationship probably has more to do with Satya's understanding of the dynamics that are going on inside OpenAI and with the relationship between him and OpenAI and maybe his perception of what he believed to be true and what is actually true and his understanding of where he wants to take Microsoft.

37:28Big Technology Podcast Host:Yeah, no, I think that's a good perspective. Hey, I love our listeners. I'd love to give you guys an opportunity to come in and come. Of course. I have nothing against that listener. I was just making a joke about the clear opinion he had. That came through. All right. Let's take a break. When we come back, you ran Twitter. I want to talk about Meta. And then there's also this really interesting thing that's going on, this concept of a permanent underclass that's emerging because there is going to be this sort of distinction between those that have won from AI and those that haven't. So let's cover that right after this.

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40:43Big Technology Podcast Host:Terms apply. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App's banking partners. Bitcoin services provided by Block Inc. Brand. For additional information, see the disclosures at cash.app. slash legal slash podcast. And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast with former Twitter CEO, Dick Costolo. So let's talk a little bit about Meta, which was your number one competitor when you were working on Twitter. Number one, number two, and number three competitor. I remember Meta and Twitter didn't like each other so much that when Meta built a trending tab, a short-lived trending tab on its news feed, whenever there was a story they picked up from Twitter, they would write social media.

41:36Big Technology Podcast Host:People are talking about this on social media. I didn't know that. Oh, I didn't know that. That's very good. So because they clearly saw you as a competitor. But right now, it's kind of a rough moment at Meta. They just went through or they're in the process of going through some large layoffs. Their AI models are not state-of-the-art. They don't have a cloud code or codex equivalent. In fact, the consumer use case for AI hasn't really been correct. And employees are starting to question whether it's worth working there anymore. I'm just going to read one employee's comments in the SF standards.

42:08Big Technology Podcast Host:From the outside, there's massive negative sentiment and there's certainly something there. But the pain of working here is not very well understood. It's this grand calculus of what it costs to live in the Bay Area and what personal sacrifices you're willing to make and what you're willing to do for money. On the one hand, I feel massively privileged and lucky to work at a place like this. On the other hand, I'm like, where is my line? What do you make of those comments? I mean, there are always people who are – there are always people inside the company who are – it's fine, but I like it. I don't love it.

42:46You know, Bob, my manager is mean to me. I don't know. There's one person's sentiment. So it's hard to know what to make about that comment. What I would say specifically about Meta is Mark is extraordinarily sharp and a strategic thinker. And the thing that I've been surprised about is the little bit of the death by a thousand cuts on the layoffs. Like there's a riff and now there's another riff and now there's another riff. Sorry, reduction in force. Yeah. Layoffs. And that's like – that's what – if you do it once and then you get up in front of the company, like here's why this is happening you know and we're going here and so now we're going to all you know wish our you know colleagues the best but and the rest of us have to you know buckle down and focus on people will like okay i get it you know they might be sad that jim is leaving but then they kind of like okay like i get it we had to do that fine the doing it you know a second and then a third and then a fourth time it's like okay you start to be like okay this is obviously not the last time.

43:54It's going to happen again. It might be me. And then that starts to be like massively anxiety inducing across the company. And people just start to look around and like, you know, who's next. So that's just been we and it's and and each time in these layoffs, it's been a slightly different version of the, you know, because of blah, we need to X, Y, Z. And it's point you just start to realize like yeah we already you said that one that was the same reason as the second riff and then the third riff was a third layoff was a little bit different narrative now we're going back to the second layoff narrative and people just start to go okay like this we're just being you know we're just being spun yeah i mean i worked in newsrooms for eight

44:41Big Technology Podcast Host:years so every january there was a difficult decisions subject line the difficult decisions yeah and i was like i can't deal with this anymore that's why i just decided to go out on my own There's nothing people hate more in an organization than feeling like they're being spun. And that's when they start to kind of turn on management. Like, you know, you can get up to – you can make mistakes and get up in front of them and go, man, I really screwed this up. Or we really screwed this up and we should have done X and we didn't. It's my fault. I'm, you know, blah, blah, blah. I'm fessing up. And they'll kind of be, OK, you can do that a few – you can do that a couple times a year and be like – people are like, OK, I get it.

45:19We all make mistakes. But when you start to spin people, and the reason for this is because of our, like, and you said that, you know, same thing nine months ago, whatever, then they're like, it drives people crazy. You think people are fooled and they're not fooled.

45:33Big Technology Podcast Host:And I'm so glad to have you here because, man, Dick, I feel like we could speak every week because there's so much that, you know, I covered social media. I cover AI. You worked. You're in a social media company. You're investing in AI. So, you know, it's unfortunate we only have like 12 minutes left. I feel like we have to do this again. Ben Horowitz has this great – shout out to Ben Horowitz. He ran this management class when he was running his LoudCloud. And he had this great – and I asked him for his outline of it because I wrote a management class and I did it at Twitter. And I remember he was like, your job as a leader is not to be – is not to have all the answers.

46:15If you try to spin people and you think that I just said this, if you try to spin your team and they know you're like spinning them like there's that's like the most demoralizing thing you can do. Like, don't try to con me. And so there's got to be that. That's the problem with these layoffs and then layoffs and then layoffs. And now, you know, we're doing it again. But but this is the reason why. And people just are like, OK, I like they turn off.

46:42Big Technology Podcast Host:No, I'm with you. Okay, so here's where I was going with my windup. The interesting thing about Meta is that is it really like a social network anymore? Or is it like Reels and an AI project? And is Twitter and a social network anymore? Or is it like, I mean, it does still have text posts, but it's kind of like Reels. And it's combined with that side AI project. project. I think Twitter's text posts are have been extraordinarily resilient. It's like it's like this you know its ability to survive the changes in the way people use TikTok and reels and social media. I do think I do think meta is reels in an AI project.

47:31Big Technology Podcast Host:Let me just tell you though. Twitter, I've just went to my home feed. First post, image. Second post, video. Third post, video. Fourth post, text only. Fifth post, video. Some guy beating the shit out of someone who tried to take his bike. Six posts. Alex, you've got a weird, you've got a, the algorithm wants you to look at, it's the algorithm. Don't algorithm me. I'm not the only one that gets the fight videos. All right. Next text post, next image. All right. Anyway, I just think, I'll say this about, I'll say that I think you're asking me about Twitter. I think Twitter's usefulness as a text-based medium, despite what you're seeing in your home feed, has been extraordinary.

48:17And I think I would actually credit, knowing a little bit about, you know, knowing a little bit, a tiny little bit, about what goes on inside the company, I would credit a lot of the recent success. And I hope I'm actually hurting this person by crediting him instead of, you know, the ownership. But I think Nikita Beyer as the head of – and he's the product. I think he's the only product manager there now. And then loads and loads of engineers or – sorry, some engineers and a designer. Sorry. Don't mean to insult Elon by saying loads of engineers. Some engineers. I mean, yeah. But Nikita has an extraordinary instinct for product that I think only – I would say Kevin Systrom and maybe Evan Spiegel with his initial instinct for Snapchat stories are comparable.

49:14I just think Nikita's got an almost remarkable instinct for, no, no, no, this is going to be what helps grow the product even though nobody else is talking about that right now. We're going to go do this. And he's right more often than he's not, and it's impressive.

49:30Big Technology Podcast Host:Yeah. No, it's – I mean I just remember – I sort of foreshadowed this at the beginning of the episode. But so I moved to San Francisco in May 2015. And I think I had my first week on the job, second week on the job. You stepped down. Yeah. June 10th. And this was, yeah. And this was my second week there. And this was Twitter and Facebook. That was basically my big. And the whole newsroom stopped. We're like, this is big, big news. Holy shit. And my editor looked around and he's like, who's writing this? I guess I will. And then the next day we spoke about the fact that you were leaving and Jack was going to become the interim CEO.

50:14Big Technology Podcast Host:My favorite. Full-time CEO. And that was like – it was a definite like welcome to Silicon Valley moment. It's like, oh, things haven't really slowed since then. Yeah. Go ahead. Your favorite. Not favorite. A moment I remember vividly from that is we have all these alerts on our devices internally around the platform obviously. and I got off stage after telling the company, hey, I'm stepping down. Jack's going to just take over his interim CEO. I've told this story before. I get off stage and my phone, you know, and, you know, it's super emotional. And my phone bings. Elon Musk has unfollowed you on Twitter.

50:53I was like, wow, man. Yeah. Four seconds. You might, I don't know. You might have dodged a bullet there.

51:00Big Technology Podcast Host:You never know. Anyway. Yeah. No, that was, well, look. I think it was more like looks and sees the news like, don't need to follow this idiot anymore. Well, he should – does he follow you now? I don't believe so, but I haven't looked. No, I always – I mean I always liked looking at your tweets. So, I mean I think we could do another full episode talking about the Twitter era and the transformation of that product. And I actually thought maybe we should have even started there, but I'm glad we went with AIIP. But it has been a fascinating – I mean I – when I was covering – I covered like every little tweak to the feed.

51:37Big Technology Podcast Host:I broke the news that it was going to be algorithmic. And that was a very intense time because Jack initially denied it. My DMs were like, you're a liar. Your credibility is gone ever, forever. And then on Tuesday, like I broke it on Friday. On Tuesday, they're like, we're going algorithmic. And clearly it's algorithmic. But I've forgiven Jack for that. I hope we're all good at this point. But not just a crazy, crazy product. and clearly like, you know, this whole Twitter's dead thing. I mean, when you were CEO, you saw it after you left. Every journalist writes a Twitter's dead story. I never wrote it and I never will because for whatever reason, the format works.

52:17That's what I was saying. It's remarkably resilient. The day I became CEO, I walked up to the head of communications, Gabriel Stricker, And I said, hey, at the time, back in the day, there were business magazines, Business 2.0 and like Bloomberg, I think, had had dead birds, dead Twitter birds on their cover the past year. You know, the death of Twitter. This is 2010. Death of Twitter across media. I just went up to the head of comms, Gabriel, and was like, hey, your goal for the next year is no dead birds on any of the major media platforms. Low bar. Like the company is not dying. It just is – it's a constant.

53:02And it never goes away. It's crazy.

53:04Big Technology Podcast Host:Well, I would say that – so the business of Twitter has died to a degree. But the product remains vital. I mean I was – people can – Crazy. It's a SpaceX company to bring it full circle. Yeah. People can dish on advertising, dish and dish on advertising all they want. But advertising is undefeated as a business model. What you end up finding is that the average revenue per user is just much, much higher than you can get from a premium subscription. Well, yeah. So maybe going to premium subscription and telling advertisers to F themselves isn't the best business strategy. I mean it never worked for me telling my customers to go F themselves.

53:42But, you know, again.

53:43Big Technology Podcast Host:Teach their own. Yeah, teach their own. Okay, let's end here. You know, we were texting. You sent me this post. The vibes in SF feel pretty frantic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen. Over the last five years, a group of 10 ,000 people about at Anthropic, OpenAI, XAI, NVIDIA, Meta, TBD have hit retirement wealth above$20 million. Everyone else outside the group feels like they can work their well-paying but less than$500 ,000 job for their whole life and never get there. Worse yet, layouts are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life skill is no longer useful.

54:17Big Technology Podcast Host:The day-to-day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI. Sort of pointing at this permanent underclass meme. I mean, I guess it's tough to feel bad for someone who's making less than$500 ,000 if it's like$499. But it is interesting what you're seeing in Silicon Valley today with like these lottery ticket winners at the big AI labs and everyone else. I don't know, man. I'll say two things about it. Living a life of comparison, it doesn't matter where you are in that stack. It's a losing strategy. It's just a life of misery. and I guess because you're comparing or you can't buy a house no just like I'm here and this person there's no winning that ever by the way you can be look Elon has got more money Elon's going to be the first trillionaire is he talking about like what's he talking about on Twitter you know like Sam's a bad guy you know like you don't get like man if I were a trillionaire, life would be great too.

55:27You get, I'm going to, that guy's a bad guy and I'm going to, you know, go get this person. I just like, there's a great old Winston Churchill quote that I'm going to botch, but it's something like functional expertise, while great, is no match for a broad appreciation of the, for the humanities and the human condition in all its joy and suffering, because you just developed this immense understanding of it looks like things are great for that guy. They can be just as horrible for that guy. It looks like things are horrible for her. Actually, some things about her life are better than anything about yours.

56:10And literature is filled with these, hey, man, stop chasing ghosts. Stop looking. Stop living a life of comparison and chasing ghosts. and this phantom thing you think you're supposed to have. Virginia Woolf's to the lighthouse, great expectations at Dickens. And I just think there are too many people in Silicon Valley who have functional expertise and not a broad appreciation for the joys and sorrows that you grow to appreciate in the humanities and therefore live in this vortex of this tunnel vision of they got that and I would have that if I went to Anthropic and I didn't go to Anthropic and that sucks.

56:53The person Anthropic is like, I was going to get this house, but this jerk paid$15 million for the$8 million house, and now I don't have it, and that sucks. It's just there's no winning. That's right. Yeah.

57:05Big Technology Podcast Host:Yeah. I mean, I would say, I would say, okay. I get that it's worse for the guy that didn't go to Anthropic and now doesn't have a billion dollars. I get that. I'm not taking the side of someone saying life is miserable on that front. I do get the person who's like – it's crazy like making a couple hundred thousand dollars and because these opening ion anthropic folks have gotten this windfall, they've taken the housing supply. Rent has gone up here in New York. Rent is like the craziest it's ever been. But that being said, you can still have a pretty nice life with that type of money. Again, writ large across the country, it goes back to the Darios and the Sams, et cetera, et cetera, need to start painting a picture.

57:47to the country about why this is great for us or a lot of these data centers aren't going to get built. Yeah.

57:54Big Technology Podcast Host:All right, Dick, you have to come back. This was so great. Yeah, thanks for having me. That's the fastest move an hour I've ever done on the show. So thank you. Thank you for being here. Yeah, happy to do it. All right. All right. Check out, let's plug the show. Check out the Nick, Dick and Paul show. Please. On your podcast app of choice. And we always thank you for being here with us. We'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.

58:17Thank you.

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59:22Start your free trial today at aura.com slash remove. Protect yourself now at aura.com slash remove. Most people don't realize how much their personal information is being bought and sold every day. Data brokers are making billions, pulling details about you from public records and the internet, and then packaging and selling it, usually without your consent. That's how your information lands in the hands of scammers, spammers, even stalkers. It's why you get endless robocalls and why ads seem to follow you everywhere. That's where Aura comes in. Aura actively removes your data from broker sites and keeps it off.

59:55They also instantly alert you if your information shows up in a breach or on the dark web. But Aura goes beyond data protection. With one app, you get a VPN, antivirus, password manager, spam call protection, dark web monitoring, and even up to$5 million in identity theft insurance, all backed by 24-7 U.S.-based fraud support. Other companies might sell just credit monitoring or just a VPN. Aura gives you all of it, together, at the same price competitors charge for just one service. Start your free trial today at Aura.com slash remove. Protect yourself now at Aura.com slash remove.