In short
Big Technology Podcast Episode Notes
Episode Overview Title: Why Crypto’s Thriving Post-SBF, Sports Betting Crisis Deepens, Jon Stewart vs. AI Guests: Ranjan Roy (Margins), Zeke Faux (Bloomberg News) Date: [Insert Date] Host: Alex Kantrowitz
Key Discussion Points
- Crypto's Resilience Post-SBF Conviction
- Despite the conviction of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and the issues surrounding FTX, Bitcoin's value has increased by 53% this year.
- The crypto market seems to have returned to a speculative "number go up" mentality, focusing more on meme coins than on foundational narratives (DeFi, NFTs).
- Meme Coins and NFTs
- The rise of meme coins like "dogwifhat" and NFT collections like "CryptoDickbutts" showcases a shift towards a gambling-like mentality among investors.
- Zeke Faux discusses the humorous yet alarming aspects of meme coin trading as a form of entertainment akin to gambling.
- Underlying Issues in Society
- The conversation reflects broader societal issues, such as financial desperation leading individuals to gamble with their investments.
- The idea that crypto trading is merely a form of gambling rather than a constructive financial tool is emphasized.
- Scams and Risks in the Crypto Space
- Zeke's reporting highlights serious scams like pig butchering, where scammers use Tether to exploit victims.
- The emergence of "Nudes In Bio" scams on Twitter points to the dark intersection of social media, crypto, and exploitation.
- Sports Betting Crisis
- The current landscape of sports betting reveals potential corruption and addictive behavior, particularly in college sports.
- New regulations are starting to emerge, such as Louisiana banning prop bets on college players.
- Jon Stewart's Critique of AI
- Stewart argues that while tech executives tout the benefits of AI, they simultaneously acknowledge its potential to displace jobs.
- The discussion raises questions about the rapid pace of technological change and its implications for the future of work.
Detailed Notes
- Crypto's Survival and Growth
- Market Sentiment: Traders are abandoning the notion of creating revolutionary financial systems, opting instead for short-term gains.
- Notable Examples: SBF's trading advice even in prison highlights the absurdity of current crypto trading culture.
- Meme Coins: The New Gambling Frontier
- Entertainment Value: The appeal of meme coins resembles a lottery experience rather than traditional investment.
- Psychological Aspects: The thrill of betting on volatile assets drives many to invest in coins with little to no real value.
- Scams Exploiting Crypto
- Pig Butchering: A method where scammers manipulate victims into investing in fraudulent crypto schemes.
- Human Trafficking Links: Zeke discusses the human cost of such scams, where many scammers are victims themselves.
- The Sports Betting Landscape
- Rapid Expansion: Following the Supreme Court ruling, sports betting has exploded, with 40 states allowing it.
- Potential Crisis: Concerns arise about the integrity of sports and the mental health of athletes under pressure from betting.
- AI and the Future of Work
- Jon Stewart's Commentary: Stewart critiques the contradictory messages from tech leaders regarding AI's benefits versus its job displacement potential.
- Industry Response: The conversation indicates a possible upcoming societal backlash against AI, paralleling sentiments around crypto and gambling.
Key Takeaways
- The crypto market exhibits a strong speculative trend despite significant failures and scams, raising questions about its sustainability.
- The gambling culture permeating both crypto and sports betting poses risks to individuals and societal norms, particularly among vulnerable populations.
- The narrative surrounding AI is evolving, with emerging concerns about its societal impact as more voices call for accountability and regulation.
Conclusion This episode of the Big Technology Podcast provides a nuanced look at the intersections of crypto, gambling, and technology. With expert insights from Zeke Faux and discussions of societal implications, the episode raises important questions about the future of these rapidly evolving industries.
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Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Why is crypto thriving after SBF? The sports betting crisis is deepening and Jon Stewart comes out against AI. All that and more is coming up with special guest Zeke Fox right after this. Welcome to Big Technology Podcast Friday edition where we break down the news in our cool-headed and nuanced format. We have quite a show for you today. We have Ranjan Roy here. Ranjan is back from France. Ranjan, welcome. I'm very excited about today. Number Go Up was one of my favorite books of last year. Yeah, this is another episode that's Ranjan-inspired. Ranjan, you kept shouting out Number Go Up on the show.
0:35I read it, definitely one of my favorite books as well. And we're so lucky to have the author here, Zeke Fox, who's the author of Number Go Up. He's also a reporter at Bloomberg. Zeke, welcome to the show. Thanks for having me on. And I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that it's Earthquake Friday here in New York. I know anybody listening to this show is probably over the long media cycle that New Yorkers have had over a manageable 4.8 magnitude earthquake. But I'm not. I mean, we just had the earth shake beneath our feet. Pretty cool stuff. We should continue talking about it for weeks on end as New Yorkers experiencing that.
1:14That's my platform. We also have some big earth shaking developments. See what I did there? In the crypto world. including the fact that SPF is going away for 25 years, or at least that's the sentence. It will probably be less than that. Last week, we talked about the sentencing. This week, I want to talk really about the most confusing thing about all this, which is that SPF is gone, a 25-year sentence, yet Bitcoin is up 53 % this year. Mean coins are proliferating, and it seems like crypto really hasn't lost a step. In fact, it's gaining. And, you know, Zeke, you have a story out in Bloomberg talking about how the fall of FTX wasn't the exception or it wasn't just a good company that had some bad decisions.
1:57It was rotten to the core and it's a warning to all of crypto. So with that lens, I want you to explain to us why crypto continues. It's having really a banner year when the warning signs are still ever present. And a lot of the problems that led to the downfall of FTX and a legion of other exchanges and banks, you know, they have not been fixed. One funny detail from that story is that apparently Sam Bankman-Fried has been giving some trading advice to the guards at MDC Brooklyn, the prison where he has been confined since before the trial. And he told them that they should sell Ripple and buy Solana.
2:41and if they took his advice you know they've probably like doubled their money right you know it was excellent trading advice yeah and but so all of crypto is back but then the flip side is that we learned at this trial that if anything ft the ftx scam started really early they were dipping into the customer fund he was eyeing the customer funds before he even started the exchange and started dipping into them pretty much right away. And when you talk to crypto traders now, I mean, I've heard this from quite a few people. It's almost like they've dropped the pretense that they're creating the future of finance, that something cool is going on and totally embraced number go up thinking.
3:29You don't hear people talking about DeFi, talking about NFTs. I don't even really get the same chatter from like normal people being excited about crypto, but they're buying just like ever stupider meme coins. And for now, they're all going up. It's truly unbelievable to me. I would be lying if I said I predicted this. But conveniently, you did. Your book is called Number Go Up, Zeke. You can't take can't deny credit for what's happening right now. Credit. This is your time. That is my favorite part of this entire cycle is that exactly the blockchain is not the key development. As you said, DeFi, it's not DAOs and decentralized communities.
4:14It's literally the price is going up and everyone is happy. But yeah, what are the mechanics behind here? What do you think the mechanics are that are pushing this? If there's no underlying narrative, each previous hype cycle had a very clear narrative, then what is it? I would separate it into two categories. And category one is just like gambling is fun. And people love playing the lottery, even though the odds of you winning are like one in 300 million. in and so people want to play this meme coin game or not everybody but just some percentage of people find this game entertaining and thus it continues um i mean one funny example of that is this guy machi big brother i don't know if he already had the dog or he acquired it for this purpose but he got like a very cute dog and then he posted his solana address and said like you know if you send me money at this address i'm gonna send you some dog tokens i mean it was there was no formal setup it was just like here's my address send money the dog tokens will come people sent like 40 million dollars is this dog with hat because dog with hat is my favorite of all the coins oh oh no this is like dog with hat is like a blue chip stock it's kind of boring people have moved on to like new uh new dog tokens and cat tokens i just love the way that journalists have to write about this so this was on yahoo finance it's talking about doug with hat it says based on the solana chain the token is based on a meme of a dog wearing a pink knitted hat a cap so it makes sense that the project's headline is that it's literally just a dog with a hat despite its simplicity and lack of innovative ideas the token has performed far better than anyone could have imagine it began trading in 2024 for just seven cents but quickly gained steam by the end of february the price surpassed one dollar by the end of march the price broke an all-time high and reached four dollars and 85 cents a gain of seven thousand percent in less than three months dog with hat telling you there's something to it yeah i mean so this is just like it's this sort of it's like the meme stocks like GameStop or AMC and where it's just it's sort of this fun new game that didn't really exist in markets before where it's like it's like a pump and dump scheme but people are doing it to themselves they're like let's let's all buy dog with hat and if enough people buy it it's gonna go up and I'm gonna get out before I'm gonna be one of the lucky ones who gets out before it all collapses.
7:07And I was trying to research the psychology behind this. I was reading a 1936 book by John Maynard Keynes. And he said, he compared the stock market to a game of musical chairs and said, like, hey, people just, it's a game that we can, everyone still enjoys playing it, even knowing that there are going to be like winners and losers. It's kind of like a zero sum game. So I think that explains a lot of the crypto activity. Then you've got Bitcoin, which is a little different, although maybe just sort of a more long term version of the same thing where people have sort of given up on this idea that Bitcoin is the future of finance, that it's good for transactions.
7:54But people see you see the price going up, you start to feel like, oh, man, wouldn't it be nice if I had some of that in my portfolio? I wish I had something that gained 50 percent this year. You buy. And that pushes the price up a little more. And so also addressed by Keynes conveniently, we're all trying to guess, not like do we think Bitcoin is good, but like do we think that other people think that Bitcoin is good or do we think that we're trying to guess like other people's opinions of this and lately everyone's opinions have been look at the price going up let's get in on it um and i keep coming back to this idea that in the long run value has to come from some sort of profitable use case.
8:47Don't be ridiculous, Zeke. Come on. Number go up. This is amazing. I like that we were bringing in Keynesian historical references, whereas to me, the more interesting part was the psychological part of essentially a self-inflicted pump and dump. People want to pump and dump onto themselves, but in reality, that is what meme coin trading is. This is from Molly White this week. She has this amazing story. There is a project promising to rug pull, and it's raised almost$29 ,000. And this is what she says. A project describing itself as the world's first meme coin pre-announced as a rug pull was explicit in its marking.
9:33Do not buy this coin. It will go to zero. Despite that, people sent the creator over 8.8 ETH, which is$29 ,000 approximately, during the project's pre-sale. I mean, does it get any dumber than this? You know, I feel like part of crypto is sort of a competition to come up with the dumbest ideas so that everyone will be like, wow, this one really takes the cake. Let me invest in this one. There's this like kind of nihilistic attitude that dumber is better. And I thought I had always admired the NFT collection, Crypto Dick Butts. And do you remember this one? One of the greats. Yeah. Yeah. So it was like butts, pixelated butts with penises growing out of them.
10:24And I thought this is the dumbest one ever. I can see why this went to, you know,$5 ,000. And if I could think of something dumber, maybe I could be a billionaire. But I was never able to think of something dumber than that. But now, yeah, with the dog coins, people have topped it. Here's my theory on this is, do you believe there is something more sophisticated? I don't want to use the word nefarious behind all of this in the sense that one of the things that always I remember when Beeple sold the I think it was 64 million dollar digital art it was essentially kind of like crypto NFT promoters who were buying that using crypto given gains and then they were going to like going on once they create that hype cycle to sell other tokens try to make more money on top of it so the initial ridiculousness you know the same way with the rug pull maybe is the idea put a little money you put eight eighth in the dumbest thing out there and then the thing you're selling to the market is actually not that dumb as you know the rug pull token like are there are there sophisticated ideas behind crypto dick butt and uh the project rug pull that might be the best question ever asked on this podcast i did it with a serious voice too So I'm not going to I don't want to accuse Mr.
11:56Rugpoll of anything, but I'm just going to throw this out there as a possibility of something that a scheme that one could do. I mean, I could announce let's say we all teamed up. I could announce Rugpoll token and we let's say we all have we're all working together. And then you guys could send me, you know, seven ETH. and then the internet would see this and be like, oh, looks like rug pull tokens really taking off. It's collected seven ETH. Somebody else sends me one ETH and we just made, I mean, it's very easy to make these tokens. We just made a one ETH profit. We could split it three ways.
12:36So like the people who are organizing these coins, it would not be difficult for them to rig it so that they were going to profit no matter what happened. I'm not saying that they all are, but like when you come in and like you're sending some money in because you think it's funny on the Internet, like the odds are against you. The insiders, there's at least like a possibility that they've rigged this in their favor. I mean, they didn't set it up just to laugh. I mean, you never know. Maybe they did. But there's some chance they didn't just set it up to laugh. First of all, great business idea.
13:11We'll be in touch after the show. Second, is there something broader about our society right now where we have, for instance, potentially not given a large portion of society a path to, you know, build wealth? Like last week on the show, Reid Albergati and I were joking about like, you know, how difficult it is to build retirement savings. And is it that we've just created such a desperate moment in society that people decide that they need to go this route? I mean, there was a story that I read recently about people taking their student loans and putting them into sports betting. It's insane.
13:46But is there a broader commentary that we should be thinking about here when we talk about all this insanity? I totally think you're right. And I once had a really interesting conversation with a closet salesman at IKEA. And, like, I chat everybody up about crypto. So we started talking crypto and meme stocks and he'd lost some money on them. And I was telling him, I hope I wasn't being too obnoxious, but just trust me, this fit in the flow of conversation. I was telling him, you know, I just go with broad market ETFs and that historically they've gone up, you know, eight or 10 percent a year.
14:28And I think it's kind of a fool's game to try and beat the market. And he was like, that might be well and good for you, person who's about to drop, you know, a thousand bucks on a closet. I work here. I don't have any extra money. I need 100x. Like, I'm going to go buy the next crypto token and hope that it helps me get to my financial goals because 8 or 10 percent is not doing anything for me. I'll disagree with both of you here, though. The narrative that after the financial crisis, people lost faith in traditional economics, like the banks and infrastructure, and obviously student loan weight, and there are income inequality, and these are things that are clearly ever present in society.
15:12But to me, this is more just a lack of regulation. It's a new type of technology. It's made for betting, and it's fun. But again, the idea that people have lost so much hope, how many people really paid attention to 8 % returns over time, annualized, will help me achieve a financial goal? It's always been more fun to bet on crypto dick butt or whatever the corollary was for time memoriam. This was a family show up until today. You just weren't allowed to bet on crypto dick butt in the past. or you had no easy way to do it that's um that's what warren buffett said in his most recent annual letter he was just like you know he was mostly about how much money he'd made on crypto dick butts uh but then there was like a sub there was a footnote that you warren buffett and his with his omaha accent yeah well crypto dick butt's been good to us it's been good um he he said it's The casino is in everybody's pocket.
16:16It's never been easier. And that may be what's driving this more volatile stock market and also these weird crypto things. If this is a betting thing, then what do we think about the institutions that are trying to take advantage of the degens or degenerate gamblers who are putting all this money into crypto projects? And, you know, I'm going to point to like where this discussion initiated, where I read your book and I was like, Zeke, why don't you come on the show to help us review Chris Dixon's book, the Andreessen Horowitz venture capitalist who wrote Read, Write, Own, who's been part of the institutional movement to try to get people.
16:54You know, it's not just the Bitcoin ETFs that I understand a little bit more, but like to he's been investing in these projects, these Web3, quote unquote, projects, which have been effective. Many of them effectively have been rug pulls for the degenerate gamblers who've gone in. Meanwhile, it seems like Andreessen Horowitz has done quite well. yeah i mean i that book it was it was shocking to me that this book was about the promise of web 3 but it did not address the abject failure of so many of the projects that he had invested in and in in number go up i investigated one of them the game axi infinity and this was like if you're not familiar it was kind of like a pokemon-ish game where you assembled a team of monsters and battled other monsters and what made it a crypto game was that you had to buy your monsters and you owned them that's web 3 and then when you battled you would earn smooth love potions and you might say like well why would you want smooth love potions well you need them to buy your monsters why do you want the monsters well you can earn smooth love potions so uh it it turned out that the way they set up the economics of the game you could essentially earn like a five or ten percent daily yield in smooth love potions by purchasing these monsters so people caught on to this and it took off it was huge in the philippines there were like more than a million people playing it.
18:35And of course, Andreessen Horowitz invested in the company that created this. Their fund has great returns. But what naturally, Smooth Love Potion prices collapsed, like this scheme was unsustainable. And I went to the Philippines and talked to people who had taken out loans, altered their life plans, went into big debt to buy these Axie Infinity monsters, and who are devastated when the price of smooth love potions collapsed.
19:08So I think there's probably some argument you could make in favor of Web3, but at least address how this was screwed up. Nobody has said sorry.
19:23Nobody's really said like, oh, wow, we really set up the economics wrong. um so yes so i i did find that surprising that he's um they've invested in some of these in many failed projects and he just sort of hasn't changed his story about how web 3 is the future yeah i think axie infinity to me and actually i mean in terms of one of the things number go up i think did very well was tell the human stories of the people who lost out because again the only stories we traditionally hear are the people who won for short periods of time in order to get more people interested. But, you know, these stories of because especially I remember Axie Infinity, when it launched and what really drove the hype was there are these viral videos of people in the Philippines finding economic empowerment through smooth love potion and turning their lives around.
20:19And anyone I spoke to in crypto would point directly to that and say, look, were already changing the world and then until they weren't. So, yeah, and I think that's important. I might be showing my age here, but I always thought of Axi Infinity as sort of being like the monorail episode of The Simpsons. Oh, no. Okay. You know, where a neighboring town is, this monorail salesman comes to Springfield and just like gives this whole pitch about how it's going to change the town to get this monorail. And then I think it's Marge goes to investigate and she goes to this neighboring town that got a monorail.
21:00And like the whole town is burned down for some, it's like this wasteland. And to me, Axie Infinity, it's like, this is where you tried your Web3 plan and it totally sucked. You know, it's like a vision of our Web3 future. And so, yeah, if you're still promoting that, you need to tell me why it makes more sense. And another one that, I mean, they were investors in Yuga. I think, didn't they invest in Yuga Labs? They invested in Bored Apes, right? Yep. $450 million round led by A16Z. Yeah. So like, what were you thinking there, Chris Dixon? What was the logic behind the Bored Ape investment? Now those have become like a total laughingstock.
21:48Well, do you think there's that idea of no one has said sorry? That's something I've thought about a lot because even Sam Bankman Freed is heading to prison for 25 years and hasn't really said I'm sorry. But do you think there needs to be some kind of compunction or recognition of what happened over the last four years? or do you think, I mean, is the strategy, which it looks like it's happening is to just triple down on this is a future. We're going to make money again on the next cycle. Yeah. I mean, I was pretty shocked recently. It took me a while to get around to it, but I, so Coinbase, Brian Armstrong, they've definitely been big on the message of like, it's safe for crypto now.
22:33The bad guys are gone. Let's get the next cycle going. And they have this new product called base it's their level two and i've essentially it's very easy to create your own coins that like live on this base network and it's got lower transaction fees because it's sort of self-contained as opposed to like ethereum which has gotten very expensive to transact on so i gave it a try the other day i went on there to see like okay i'm all continually my expectations are too high and i'm like well if coinbase is really pushing this there must be some cool things on base and i get on there to trade some like base coins and all it is is the same it's like i guess people associate blue with base because coinbase base is blue so it's like blue dog with hat blue cat with hat blue elon musk like literally this is diversification of your portfolio dog with fat blue dog with fat gotta have a little of each that's for sure so look at but as we're talking about this i just want to say like is is it possible that this has more staying power than we are giving it credit for because zeke like the core of your book is investigating tether which has all sorts of shady things happening beneath it which you're able to uncover and a real questionable sort of uh provenance however tether is still at a dollar right it's a coin that's just tethered to the US dollar, still at a dollar.
24:05None of these shocks have taken it down. Bitcoin is high. I mean, yes, there's going to be this like wacky movement on the fringes, but does the crypto movement have a brighter future than perhaps we're giving it credit for right here? Yeah. I mean, right now, you know, you can, if you like crypto, You're thinking, this guy is so dumb and the market proves it. His book title is dead wrong because it was intended to be a joke. It was not predicting the number would go up. But I think this isn't like a real technical analysis. But I would think hard about these bored apes. Why did they, as a sign of what might happen to the whole market, like for a while i guess enough people thought they were cool somehow that the price got very high and now since they don't do anything and they aren't cool the price is going down so while you're out there promoting all these coins they either have to be like fun and cool or they have to do something and if they don't meet either of those criteria i think eventually people will lose interest and they might find something else to do.
25:19So I still am very negative on this long term for those reasons. I just think if it's not, it hasn't found like a product that's got mainstream acceptance, just being gambling games is not enough. Do you think part of the recent rise of crypto, at least one of my theories is anytime hype returns to the market, even for a more fundamental reason, it will have trickle down effects to dog with hat. And in this case, people saw Nvidia skyrocketing, AI driving the standard stock market. And again, you look at the regular stock market, there's not much left in the meme stock way, but more of the blue chip stocks positioned well to capture Jenner today I have absolutely blown up well do you think it's more the people who didn't get in on Nvidia want to buy dog with hat because it's the next thing I guess there could be some of that where yeah just things were moving around a lot so let's we've seen in the past that when risk assets go up dog coins also go up so let's let's buy some dog coins um i mean i do think there's a risk if you buy the dog coins that you could be the guy who is holding the dog coins when everyone else remembers that the dog coins don't do anything and we don't there's no need for they're worthless um but i don't know it's it's like game stop amc those did go down over time these like memes are not are not forever But I guess, yeah, like what do you think is holding it?
27:09Because even Tether, like as Alex said, and reading through your whole book and for a long time, I've followed the Tether story closely as well. And obviously the absurdity isn't quite crypto dick butt level, but inspector gadget creator being part of it or all these other nuances is quite incredible. But again, the idea that every sign points to it should collapse, and yet it holds. Like, what are the forces that... Because in the book, I think you push towards a lot of ideas. But I mean, I think in fairness, don't definitively say what you're thinking of what is actually keeping Tether up. But like, what is it now?
27:54Since the book has come out, Howard Lutnick, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, which is a respectable New York investment bank, has come out and said, I'm holding most of Tether's money and I've seen the rest. They have the money. And I think, barring evidence of some sort of crazy conspiracy, his comments carry a lot of weight with me. And I think that Tether has been helped by rising interest rates. and now so they're sitting on like a hundred billion dollars that's how many tether tokens are out there they don't pay interest and they haven't invested in treasuries at like five percent so they're clipping five billion dollars in profit a year now and so if in let's just say for the sake of argument tether had a sam bankman freeze freed sized hole of eight billion dollars they could earn that back in a year and a half.
28:57Where I come down on it is that there's clear evidence of a lot of shadiness in Tether's early years. But now what it seems to me is that Tether's found widespread acceptance among people doing shady things around the world who are willing to overlook red flags and are willing to hold a dollar coin that doesn't pay interest. You know, whereas in the U.S., you'd be like, why don't I just put this in my, you know, Apple wallet and get five percent. Zeke, as we round out this segment, I want to talk to you about like one of the like clear negative externalities or uses of Tether, which is pig butchering, which you go into depth and take an amazing trip in your book to a place that was tied directly to these scandals.
29:49So I'd love to hear you talk a little bit about that. And then just as a corollary to that, does that relate to all these nudes and bio tweets that we're seeing on Twitter today? Sure. So if you're not familiar, pig butchering is a scam where someone approaches you either on a dating app, LinkedIn, whatever, a wrong number text is common. and they try to be your friend and they start to drop hints that they're really good at trading crypto. And eventually they get you to download some sort of bootleg crypto app and to send them usually Tether to deposit into that app. And they'll even you can open the app.
30:35It looks like you're making money. It seems great. And people start to send in more and more money. Like I was just at a press conference held by the Brooklyn DA yesterday, where they talked about victims who'd sent hundreds of thousands of dollars. And eventually the scammer will just ghost you and take all the money. And the really dark part of it that I write about in the book is that the people, the scammers themselves are often victims of human trafficking. And there are these scam compounds in Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos, which are like evil office parks filled with thousands of people who've been lured there with the offer of like a high paying job and customer service.
31:20They get there. They're trapped. They are tortured. They're beaten. They're forced to run these scams. And it's hugely lucrative. It's mostly run by Chinese gangsters. and new research by professor at UT Austin says that these gangs have collected in the last few years something like 75 billion dollars mostly using tether um which is pretty wild and if you go to uh so this doesn't you know this obviously doesn't prove anything but in my I'd spent like years looking into tether by this point the first time i saw tether in use in the real world was when i was in a border town on the border of cambodia vietnam one that's known to hold a lot of scam compounds i get off the bus and right in the parking lot of one of these casinos that is known to be a site for forced labor there's a little booth that's like we'll trade your tethers for local currency and i'm like i literally don't think i'd seen the tether logo outside of a crypto conference until i got there and i'm just like hmm doesn't prove anything but kind of a bad sign that this is the the place where i actually see crypto in the real world that's crazy and so is that what's going on with these uh nudes and bio scams on on twitter so based on uh research by john herman for new york magazine he followed some of these scams and wait sorry could you guys explain the nudes and bio scam oh yeah so there's often on any sort of popular tweet someone will reply with this tweet in a kind of funny format with a lot of weird like black spaces in it they'll write like nudes in bio and they're trying to obviously lure you into clicking and if you do click through it takes you to like a very particular fake dating site called provocative neighbors where you can pay to chat with i guess like supposedly horny singles uh who are actually gig workers who get paid on commission on so it's it's kind of similar to the pig butchering model but i've i've do not i've yet to meet anyone who's escaped from a scam compound who had to work on these uh nudes and bio replies so that they may be fully voluntary This is more traditional catfishing than something more sinister.
34:18And I think it just shows. So I once spent a while researching affiliate, the shady side of affiliate marketing. And there's always been these guys who will buy up ads on like porn sites and direct people into these kind of low end scams. they call them like dating sites but it's not real dating and i think what happened is that twitter has such bad content moderation and is getting really low prices for its ads now so it's it's getting like these porn site quality ads that used to be screened out by better moderation or just higher prices for they're not just ads though like they just show up like in the replies as like bots and i mean it could all be true was going to save us from the bots on twitter yeah but okay one last thing about this and then then we'll go to break it's what's interesting i also read in the herman story is that like this is just sort of like the tip of the iceberg when it comes to only fans agencies so there are companies that run this is what he says there are companies that run only fan only fans accounts that are staffed and they talk simultaneously with dozens of users who are led to believe they are talking with real models, not male operators in, say, Poland.
35:44And there's a quote, every guy has three monitors, three chats at a time. Wow. Just sad. So before we go, I just wanted to ask one thing, because again, from reading the book, there's one thing that I kept thinking about going back to pig butchering, it's almost rare you have a scam where both sides of the scam are victims. And then there's a middleman who's kind of controlling it versus usually you have the very clear scammer and the scammy. But here's something that's so awful where you have people losing their money on the being scam side and then literal human trafficking to help drive these scams.
36:27And obviously, like, why is this not more of a story? And I've seen, I think, John Oliver did a segment, I've started to see it some more coming out. But you know, there's some stories when I read them, after reading your book, all I can think about is why are more people not talking about this? Or why hasn't this gotten more attention? And I'm assuming you want more people to read your book. And that would be step one. But in general, like, is there something to this story that prevents people from just jumping towards it as this massive thing we need to work together to solve? From a government perspective, I think it's tricky to solve because the criminals are in other countries where in some of these places they operate pretty much with impunity and the U.S.
37:18doesn't have any authority there. So what people activists are doing is trying to work with law enforcement in those countries to push for more raids of scam compounds for them to stop, you know, looking the other way and to make it into sort of an embarrassment. So they can't like in Cambodia, it became kind of like a national embarrassment, which led to at least some raids, although they continue to operate in Cambodia. But from a law enforcement side here, somebody comes to them and they say, hey, I lost a million dollars to pig butchering. And if you're lucky enough to find, first of all, a lot of police officers don't know about this because they might not understand what happened or how they might be able to help.
38:11Even if they are savvy, the money is long gone. And that's why crypto is so great for these scams. Because if you're a crypto person, you're like, come on, it's not crypto's fault. But the thing is, if you send some tether to someone who you think is a pretty girl, but is actually a victim of human trafficking in Cambodia, you zap them a million tethers, that money is gone. and you don't have any clues, you don't have any address or any name. It used to be like for a Nigerian email scam, they would often work with money mules in the US who would let the con men use their bank accounts. So that would at least give law enforcement something to go off of.
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39:01And also like, I mean, some of these pig butchering scams do use bank wires too, but you're going to set off a lot of alarms at the bank. You're going to get a lot of warnings.
39:14But, yeah, honestly, I'm surprised that people haven't tried to do more to stop this, too. It's really like it's really massive in dollar amount in terms of the amount that Americans and people in other countries are losing. And the United Nations has called it possibly the biggest human trafficking operation in history. They estimate 200 ,000 people are trapped in scam compounds. That's crazy. Yeah. So I would say people should work on figuring out how to solve this. And it's another place where I would argue that the crypto promoters who run the coins that they're... Like if you run Tether and all these criminals are using Tether to do horrible things, you may say like, well, I don't I don't know these people.
40:07I didn't mean for this to happen. But it's like, well, they're using your product to do it. So maybe you should try and figure out how to stop them. You know? Yeah. Okay, so we've talked about gambling with crypto. Let's talk about gambling for real on sports betting. And then of course, Jon Stewart's stance against AI when we come back from the break right after this. Did you know your credit card points and miles can lose value to inflation? Credit card companies often reduce the redemption value of your points and miles. Now imagine a credit card with rewards that can grow in value. With the Gemini credit card, you can earn Bitcoin or one of over 50 other cryptos instantly with no annual fee.
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41:23This content is not investment advice and trading crypto involves risk. The Gemini credit card cannot be used to make gambling-related purchases. What the hell is going on right now? And why is it happening like this? At Wired, we're obsessed with getting to the bottom of those questions on a daily basis. And maybe you are too. I'm Katie Drummond, the Global Editorial Director of Wired. And I'm hosting our new podcast series, The Big Interview. Each week, I'll sit down with some of the most interesting, provocative, and influential people who are shaping our right now. Big interview conversations are fun.
41:59I want a shark that... That eats the internet. That turns it all off. Unfiltered and unafraid. So in a lot of ways, I try to be an antidote to the unimaginable faucet of reactionary content that you see online, to the best of my ability. Every week, we're going to offer you the ultimate luxury of our times. Meaning and context. True or false, you, Brian Johnson, the man sitting across from me, one day, at some point, as of yet undefined in the future, you will die. False. Tell me more. Listen to The Big Interview right now in the same place you find Wired's Uncanny Valley podcast. Subscribe or follow wherever you get your podcasts.
42:41And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast with Zeke Fox. He's the author of Number Go Up. It's going up, but he wasn't predicting that. So he tells us, or maybe he was. It's a mystery. We'll leave it for you to decide. And Ranjan Roy is also here, Ranjan of Margins. So Ranjan, first of all, welcome back. So Ranjan, you and I have been texting about sports betting, and I've sort of been like, this is a growing disaster. We have this NBA player, Jante Porter, who made some really suspicious prop bets about his output on the court. Well, sorry, we don't know if he made them, but we do know somebody who made some of these bets, hit on every one of them, and was like a big winner on DraftKings or whatever it is, whatever sports betting platform it is.
43:29It seems like it's corrupting sports and it seems like it's also turning people into serious gamblers that might not have been otherwise. What's your perspective on it? All right. When I think about sports betting the United States, I have to compartmentalize myself because on one hand, I agree. I think it's going to really have a negative impact on especially college sports or lesser compensated sports. and it's going to cause a lot of problem for addictive behavior. On the other side, I love it. I absolutely love betting on sports. And in a way, I am very controlled on it. I literally can get a tremendous amount of joy on putting$5 on a random NBA game that happens to be televised and keeping it on my TV on a random Tuesday night and just having the time of my life.
44:22what so it doesn't even need to be big money five ten bucks here and there and it's great so i gamble on sports very regularly and it provides me a great deal of entertainment but i do think like for college sports and i was also another thing that i was reading in the athletic that there was uh there was an athlete and this stuff i mean i will myself yell at the screen where he took a last minute three and they were already down by they're up by 25 points it put them up by 28. The line was 27 and a half. And he started getting death threats. And this is some division one game, middle of the season, up by 27, takes a random three, just kind of heaves it up at the end.
45:03It happens to hit and they get death threats. So the amount of weird behaviors and problematic behaviors this is generating on every side is a reminder that to me, the problem is when these things come at full force with absolutely, it went from completely illegal in the majority of the country to very legal in a lot of the country and tons of TV advertisements, tons of apps available, whether you want DraftKings or Caesars or FanDuel or whatever else. I mean, I don't know. I think the speed at which it came and the ferocity with which the marketing comes with it, that's the problem here. Do you know how it happened, by the way?
45:49No way. It's amazing why it happened so fast. I did some research. It's an amazing story. And it all comes down to Chris Christie. So this is from some AP reports, a combination of AP and the New York Times. Yes, it really is a Chris Christie thing. In 2012, New Jersey governor, then New Jersey governor, Chris Christie signed legislation authorizing sports betting in the state. It was seen as a way to attract more visitors and gamblers to help revitalize Atlantic City and generate tax revenue for New Jersey's budget. Then the leagues sued him. It went all the way to the Supreme Court, and the Supreme Court made it constitutional everywhere, allowing states to make their own rules, right?
46:30So the Supreme Court makes that ruling in 2018, and then now there's 40 states that allow sports betting, and that's why it's exploded. So it all comes down to this initial, you know, move by Chris Christie to revitalize Atlantic City, which I just visited for the first time and had a lovely time out there. And I see Zeke reacting with indignation. So I'll turn the floor to him. Well, I think like sports betting is one of those things where it's really gambling in general. It's really well established that most people can enjoy gambling and can do it without ruining their lives. But there's some percentage of people who will gamble compulsively and where this is really, really harmful to them.
47:21And so by expanding the universe of gamblers, we're creating more people who are going to be these big losers who are going to hurt themselves. and is look you can say everyone should be allowed to do what they want but is it really desirable to let everyone have access to this like in their pocket you know like our is the good that we're creating for society by helping other you know somebody like you have more fun outweighed by the small percentage of people who are going to have like serious negative of consequences and i would say like maybe yes you know don't um and it's also kind of gross to just let's like just watch sports and not talk about betting lines the whole time such a good ruins it for me because that's that's i think the big problem here it's not just that fact that it's become legal it's the fact that leagues have so integrated it and and media by the way not getting off the hook here have so integrated it into the experience you're like watch a game and you see the line.
48:29You have gambling shows on networks, for instance, like ESPN, et cetera, et cetera. It used to be announcers would never talk about the line, would never talk about a team covering. And now it's everywhere. And that popularizes it to the point where you feel like you're not really part of the sport if you're not betting on it. And that's really the issue. And you're right. It's led to some crazy stuff. We even have this, there was this Cavaliers coach, Cleveland Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff talking about what the gamblers are doing, you know, again, because of like, you know, the line and trying to make sure that they hit on their bets.
49:06He says they got my telephone number and we're sending me crazy messages about where I live and my kids and all that stuff. It's a dangerous game. And he says it right here in a fine line that we're walking for sure. And you look at what's happened in the Major League Baseball with Shohei Otani, the game's biggest star and a star in a game that really needs stars. being involved in this with his interpreter we still don't know the extent of that uh and it is going to spiral where you have you know of course players are going to be involved we know that and the leagues are going to really harm some people's lives by pushing this stuff so hard well i want to say that i i mean i say this kind of hypocritically because i i don't really gamble anymore but i have enjoyed i wanted to bet on the mayweather de la jolla fight so bad that I took, you know, a thousand bucks to Western Union and sent it to some online casino in Jamaica.
50:01As long as you don't send Tether to some lover out there, it's much better. Western Union was the original Tether, I feel. Kind of, yeah. It's like, it's another example where it's like, do you really want to make this easier? Like maybe a little friction was good for society. Exactly. I think that's the right point, that friction is the most important thing. I mean, and again, in terms of the amount of energy with which the leagues are integrating themselves into this, because even from a media standpoint, I forget who it was, but I think one of the prominent ESPN journalists started his own sports gambling media site account or whatever.
50:41And I don't know, do you guys remember in the early days by, I think, what's that, a year and a half, two years ago, of it being legalized in New York, New Jersey? There were just viral tweets of people who like hit a parlay that they bet like 25 bucks and won$2 million. And it would all be pushed by this one person who had just went over to start a sports media, gambling media empire. Yeah. I mean, and it was so obvious. Like, and to me, the corollary with crypto is so clear where it's like, you have to tell that story of winning. You have to make it go viral and everyone else will rush in. And again, like that's where if you even the UX of one of these apps, like it's not encouraging you to put 10 bucks on a, you know, like a 51 49 bet.
51:29Everything is about the parlay because they know the promise is high, but you will likely lose and that's where they make their money. Before I knew Sam Bakeman-Fried was running any sort of fraud, when I was down with him in the Bahamas when things were going great, this is what I was like, Sam, you're essentially, as you take out promoting FTX with like Tom Brady and Larry David, you are promoting gambling. And like you yourself say that it's even worse because a lot of the crypto coins on your exchange, you yourself say are probably fraudulent and going to zero. So you're promoting something that's just going to lose money for most people.
52:07Isn't this inconsistent with your, you know, effective altruism mission? Yeah. And he never really had a good answer for that, maybe because he was too busy covering up his massive fraud. Exactly. It takes a lot of time. Now we know. It takes a lot of effort. So we have a few minutes left here. I think we should talk. I'll just, just to wrap up this, this segment. This is a huge story, the sports betting story. And I think we're just at the very beginning and it is in its early years and it will, it will get worse. And there's going to be some massive scandals in the leagues and state governments are going to have to reckon with it.
52:44And we do have some late breaking news that Louisiana is going to ban prop bets for college players starting this summer. So I expect more of this to hit and that might have reverberations for these betting apps like DraftKings. And actually, maybe it will send more money into crypto because if people hit restrictions with sports betting, they're going to just want to get more Doug with hat. So now speaking about this Jon Stewart thing, I thought it was really interesting that Jon Stewart went after AI in his segment on Monday. He made a really good point. Right. And that was that. There are all these people out there, all these tech executives out there promoting crypto, I mean, AI's benefits and saying that AI is going to help save the world.
53:28Meanwhile, on the other side of their mouth, they're talking about how it's going to reduce the need for labor. And he basically hammered home this inconsistency saying you're talking about how AI is going to help cure disease. Meanwhile, what you're actually doing is inventing labor, replacing technology. Now, I've been on record about how I think that the labor fears are a little bit overblown. But recently, I've started to think, actually, you know, this is going to be something that displaces a bunch of jobs. Stewart was not nuanced about this, right? He didn't talk about the fact that there was actually going to be a lot of good that comes from AI.
54:03He basically discounted that. But I thought it was a good point. And I'm curious what you guys think about it. Jon Stewart, I am very excited for his return away from Apple, which I didn't really watch him. I was a huge fan through the 2000s and of The Daily Show. I love listening to him still on politics and more societal commentary. But when he talks about tech, the episode with Lena Kahn, I did not love. He was trying to make jokes about the wrong things or trying to bring too much light to what I think. Anti-trust and monopoly is a serious issue. And even on AI, when I'm listening, like, yes, every CEO who's in an earnings call trying to say how AI is going to increase productivity and cut jobs, that's what they are supposed to say, essentially.
54:53And that's just the way the stock market will value things and investors will look at things. So I think trying to use that to just or to try to make an argument about the actual implications around job loss does not make sense. And as you said, the question of impact on labor is an important one and is an interesting one. But I think this was one of those examples where when it comes to tech, a lot of the time do feel, Stuart, it oversimplifies things. Like on the face of it, to me, it's sort of impossible to imagine that AI would not lead to big job loss. But in the past, when there have been innovations that have replaced certain classes of workers, we've found newer and more productive things to do.
55:45So could this be like the one time that it's different? Like it sort of seems like maybe yes, but I also, it always seemed that way in the past too, when there have been like scary new innovations. Stuart's argument here is that this is going to happen faster than like, for instance, take the industrial revolution that happened over dozens or more than a hundred years. Whereas AI, he says is something like coming Thursday. What do you guys think about the speed of this? That's again, like for anyone, and we've on this show talked about this a lot. But for all the talk and the hype and the toy use cases, for anyone really trying to operationalize this for work purposes, we're still a long ways away.
56:31I mean, again, for all the talk, and using it in your job in different ways, people are starting to understand and acclimate things and come up with different halfway use cases. But the complete replacement in automation, I don't know. I think there's still, it's not coming Thursday, maybe not a hundred years, but it's going to be in the years at least, especially if there's not some huge pushback because those benefits and gains aren't seen in the next six months like everyone's promising us. I mean, I've been playing around with this one app that I think shows kind of a paradox about AI. It's kind of a silly one called Suno.
57:16You give it a little one sentence prompt and it'll make a song for you. and it's like it's kind of amazing like I told it to write a song like a country song about my daughter and her friend going to the movies and it did and it sounds kind of like a real song and my daughter was kind of amazed by it but then uh the song is kind of also like the most terrible song ever and no one has asked to listen to it again and even my six-year-old daughter has not expressed any interest in playing with this app anymore. And I think there's like one version where in like a couple of years, this app becomes amazing and we do want to use it.
57:57And it is like displacing real artists. And there's another version where somehow we sort of plateau in this uncanny valley where it's like this really cool trick, but it is sort of useless for the types of things that we want. I'm so glad you brought up this. My favorite discovery of the week was Sonato, S-O-N-A-U-T-O dot A-I, also a music creation app and had the same exact experience. Really cool, fun, making novel songs about really stupid, funny things. And then you listen to them once and it's fun and then you move on. But it's not, some of them, but again, there's glimmers of genius almost where you're like, wait, if it could do that and make the entire song that good, this is amazing, but which way this is going to go?
58:46Yeah, I don't think it's a guaranteed that it gets better and better and better and better every single day at a scale that we've never seen. I'm a little surprised that there hasn't been some groundbreaking AI created art that's going to get all of our attention. I mean, it seems like there'd be a lot of interest in the first AI this or the first AI that. And so there'd be like some incentive to be the one to create it. And yet, I don't know, maybe I've missed something, but I haven't seen this like thing that has people saying, Oh my God, I can't believe like AI did that other than like these little demos.
59:21So Jon Stewart, for all his faults, he's been good at tapping into the nerve of in the vibe in the country. And it's I find it just interesting that he's come out against AI. And I I haven't really seen an overt AI backlash yet, at least. So do you think there's something under the surface there that he's seeing and that potentially we're missing? Or do you think this is just a misfire on his part? I would say like among like regular people that I talk to, they are pretty down on AI and think more about kind of the annoying spammy aspects of it than, you know, the potential for helping make new advances in medicine or things like that.
1:00:02So I think he's not, he's tapping into like the mainstream sentiment there. Zeke, how many of your friends have fallen for the nudes and bioscam? And are these the ones that hate AI? And that have come forward and are ready to be named to the world. I think, first of all, Jon Stewart, I wouldn't even say all his faults. I still think overall, like, you know, he's still a force in the media. But I agree. I do think he's tapping into something. I just don't think this specific topic he did well, in my opinion. But he totally is tapping into something. Because if you think about it, you know, the Taylor Swift deepfakes on Twitter, these are the things that are going to be much more present in the conversation.
1:00:53Again, as Zeke said, as you know, like the like breaking down of protein structures via alpha fold and the rewriting of medicine or whatever it is like no one's going to talk about that. So especially in the election year, you're right. It hasn't been a debate or a topic yet, but maybe it could be. And if so, who comes out on which side? Yeah, it's going to be interesting. I mean, him jumping into the fray, I think, is a signal. Oh, Jon Stewart. Yeah. No, but Trump, Biden. Who's pro and who's anti-AI? I think you got to be pro-American innovation, right? I think they both go pro-AI. Yeah, that's what makes this one complicated, the American innovation side.
1:01:37Maybe there's a third-party candidate that comes out anti-AI and ends up winning because of that, like RFK Jr. RFK Jr. RFK Jr. That would threaten his support from the All In podcast. That would be really rough for him. His crucial backing. He's going to turn on them. That's the heel turn. He goes anti-AI come October. I mean, AlphaFold is laying the groundwork for lots of vaccine development. So you would think that RFK Jr. would be reflexively anti-AI. Oh, I think we're on it. Nobody tell him that. Okay. The book is called Number Go Up. It's by Zeke Fox. You can get it in any bookstore of choice.
1:02:18A favorite of Ranjan and I's. We'll be talking about it on the show for quite some time. And so great to have you join us, Zeke. Thank you for being here. Thank you so much for having me. It's really fun. Super fun. And Ranjan, welcome back. Thanks for being here with us. This was fun. I'll see you next week. Great stuff. Ranjan and I one-on-one for the first time in a month coming up next Friday. In the meantime, I'll have Jack Clark, a co-founder of Anthropic, joining me for an in-depth episode on what Anthropic is up to on Wednesday. So until then, we'll see you next time. on Big Technology Podcast.
1:02:55What the hell is going on right now? And why is it happening like this? At Wired, we're obsessed with getting to the bottom of those questions on a daily basis. And maybe you are too. I'm Katie Drummond, the Global Editorial Director of Wired, and I'm hosting our new podcast series, The Big Interview. Each week, I'll sit down with some of the most interesting, provocative, and influential people who are shaping our right now. Big Interview conversations are fun. I want a shark that that eats the internet that turns it all off unfiltered and unafraid so in a lot of ways I try to be an antidote to the unimaginable faucet of reactionary content that you see online to the best of my ability every week we're going to offer you the ultimate luxury of our times meaning and context true or false you Brian Johnson the man sitting across from me one day at some point as of yet undefined in the future you will die.
1:03:53False. Tell me more. Listen to The Big Interview right now in the same place you find Wired's Uncanny Valley podcast. Subscribe or follow wherever you get your podcasts.
From the publisher
Ranjan Roy from Margins is back for our weekly discussion of the latest tech news, with special guest Zeke Faux of Bloomberg News and Number Go Up fame. We cover 1) Why crypto is thriving after poster boy SBF was convicted and sentenced 2) The latest rise of memcoins including dogwifhat and NFTs like CryptoDickbutts 3) Is this evidence of a deeper societal problem or just gambling? 4) The resilience of crypto, including Tether 5) Zeke's reporting on pig butchering scams 6) The rise of Nudes In Bio scams on Twitter 7) Sports betting's deepening crisis 8) Louisiana bans prop bets on college players 9) Jon Stewart's position against AI 10) Is a broader societal backlash against AI coming.
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