In short
Podcast Notes: Bloomberg Intelligence - Ackman’s Pershing Square Seeks Up to $10 Billion in NYSE IPO
Episode Overview In this episode, hosts Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu delve into significant developments in investment news, focusing on Bill Ackman's return to the IPO market with his hedge fund, Pershing Square, as well as an analysis of Kohl's recent earnings and the broader economic landscape affected by geopolitical events.
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Key Segments
- Ackman's IPO Plans
- Guest: Bailey Lipschultz, Senior Equities Reporter, Bloomberg News
- Discussion Highlights:
- Bill Ackman aims to raise up to $10 billion through a combined IPO for Pershing Square and a new closed-end fund, Pershing Square USA.
- Previous attempts to list the hedge fund in 2024 were unsuccessful.
- New offering structure: Investors in the closed-end fund will receive shares in the management company as an incentive.
- Recent market demand for this IPO includes $2.8 billion in private demand, needing to bridge to $5 billion to proceed.
- Insights into Ackman's shift from being an activist investor to adopting a more passive investment strategy, focusing on a concentrated portfolio.
- Kohl's Earnings Analysis
- Guest: Mary Ross Gilbert, Senior Equity Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
- Discussion Highlights:
- Kohl's reported earnings that fell short of expectations, indicating ongoing struggles to regain competitive standing.
- Key issues include a 4-year streak of declining sales and a loss of ground during peak shopping seasons.
- Introduction of new strategies, including deal bars (items under $10) and expanding private brand offerings, to attract budget-conscious consumers.
- Analysts discussed Kohl's challenges in a competitive and confusing retail landscape, compounded by rising living costs influencing consumer spending.
- Economic Context: Market Pressures
- Guest: Matthew Griffin, Bloomberg Equities Reporter
- Discussion Highlights:
- The Iran conflict has introduced significant volatility to the global economy, pushing oil prices up and stirring concerns in the market.
- Current economic factors: high inflation, weakened job markets, and the struggles within the private credit sector are creating fragility.
- Investors are advised to focus on diversification in their portfolios due to the complex interplay of various economic pressures.
- The discussion emphasizes the need for caution; the market's potential for recovery is complicated by geopolitical events and economic instability.
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Key Takeaways
- Pershing Square’s IPO: A strategic move by Bill Ackman that reflects a broader trend of confidence in the market despite underlying uncertainties.
- Kohl's Situation: Highlights the retail sector's difficulties in adapting to consumer behavior changes and economic pressures, necessitating innovative approaches to attract customers.
- Market Dynamics: Emphasizes the importance of understanding the interconnectedness of various economic factors and the need for adaptive investment strategies.
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Conclusion This episode of Bloomberg Intelligence provides valuable insights into the current state of the IPO market, the challenges faced by traditional retailers like Kohl's, and the broader economic landscape influenced by geopolitical conflicts. Investors are encouraged to remain vigilant and consider diversification to navigate the complexities of the market effectively.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOBill Ackman's IPO Plans
2:14 to 2:56
Insights into Bill Ackman's strategy for Pershing Square's IPO.
“I mean, one thing that we'll know that we can look at to return to normal is deal making, is fundraising.”
Breaking Down Pershing Square's Strategy
2:56 to 4:59
An analysis of Pershing Square's fundraising and public offering approach.
“Bailey Lipschultz is Bloomberg News' senior equities reporter.”
Ackman's Shift in Investment Strategy
4:59 to 5:58
Understanding Bill Ackman's current investment focus and public engagement.
“A lot of people know Bill Ackman as an activist investor.”
IPO Timeline and Market Conditions
5:58 to 7:06
Discussion on the timeline for Ackman's IPO amidst market volatility.
“that was viewed as a way to start the process to going public.”
Investment Philosophy During Volatility
7:06 to 7:24
Exploring how investment strategies adjust during uncertain markets.
“Their pitch is, well, if you're giving us money to turn around and invest, well, we should be buying low and then ultimately profiting from there.”
Kohl's Struggles and Market Position
8:01 to 10:40
Analyzing Kohl's recent sales performance and customer demographics.
“The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works.”
Kohl's Marketing Strategies
10:40 to 12:37
Examining Kohl's approach to attract customers and manage sales.
“So they're really trying to gain traffic and conversion, but really they're also leaning into their private brands.”
Future of Kohl's: Challenges and Opportunities
12:37 to 14:00
Discussing potential changes needed for Kohl's to improve its trajectory.
“But it's important so that they can be competitive because we saw strong results in off price, as you know.”
Kohl's Sales Challenges and Prospects
14:00 to 16:28
Explore the struggles Kohl's faces with sales and the potential for recovery.
“But again, you know, they really need overall sales to rise to really get margins to move in the right direction.”
Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment
18:23 to 22:35
Analyze the current market volatility and the various factors affecting investor confidence.
“Matt Griffin knows the confluence very well.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works.
0:05Bailey Lipschultz:At IBM, we've seen this firsthand, but by embedding AI across HR, IT and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM.
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2:31Scarlet Fu:I mean, one thing that we'll know that we can look at to return to normal is deal making, is fundraising. That'll be a sign that people feel comfortable, companies feel comfortable with the current market environment. And it looks like at least one person feels good about how things are shaping up. Bill Ackman has filed to take public his hedge fund firm, Pershing Square, and a new closed-end fund at the same time. Bailey Lipschultz is Bloomberg News' senior equities reporter. He's been covering IPOs for years, and this is something we had been anticipating, Bailey, because there was this effort to list the hedge fund, Pershing Square, back in 2024 that didn't get very far.
3:10John Tucker:Well, so back in 24, the initial thought process from our understanding from Pershing Square was we're going to raise a lot of money in a closed end fund. So that way we can have an even higher fee base. We want to raise more than 20 billion dollars. Then that number became like 10. Then it became five. Then it didn't actually get off the ground. So that was for the closed end fund. Now we're seeing them come back with this, I'll call it novel pitch, that if you invest in the closed-end fund, we'll give you some shares to the actual management company as a way to entice people to buy. Their pitch was, you know, we had a few billion dollars in demand last time.
3:45John Tucker:We now have$2.8 billion in private demand. As long as we can bridge the gap to more than$5 billion in this closed-end fund, ups our fees and also gives us something else to give investors. And it ultimately takes the company public.
3:57Bailey Lipschultz:So it's fee? What's the motivator here? Is it fees? It's creating a vehicle. He's pausing.
4:06John Tucker:Well, it goes back to kind of the pitch that.
4:09Bailey Lipschultz:I'm just trying to assess whether or not this is a sign of healthy markets and it's a good move.
4:18John Tucker:It's something that they need to do. So point blank, Pershing Square failed to raise a handful of billions of dollars in a closed end fund two years ago.
4:29Bailey Lipschultz:He's not coming at this from a position of strength, or is he? I know I'm really pressing. I mean, maybe.
4:38John Tucker:OK, things that we know. They wanted to raise tens of billions of dollars before. They did not. They had discussed potentially taking the management company public. Now, with this process, both can happen potentially. Raising$5 to$10 billion increases the amount of fees that the company can generate, the management company, and it takes the management company public.
4:59Scarlet Fu:A lot of people know Bill Ackman as an activist investor. They think of Herbalife. They think of all these other companies that he kind of targeted, made his case against, or made his case for. He no longer really does that, does he?
5:11John Tucker:No, it's pretty much holding a handful of companies. So whether it's Chipotle or Alphabet, Brookfield, like kind of buying a concentrated portfolio and holding it.
5:19Scarlet Fu:He's also now even like Warren Buffett kind of using that playbook.
5:22John Tucker:That's exactly what he's trying to lean into, though, a bit more vocal on social media with his views, which depending who you talk to is bullish or bearish. But really trying to cater with this offering to retail investors. Point blank is kind of the view of this pitch.
5:39Bailey Lipschultz:So now he's going to listen to retail investors and, you know, run his company.
5:44John Tucker:He engages with them, though. He does engage. He shares a lot of things on social media.
5:49Bailey Lipschultz:I'm just still trying to wrap my head on why he'd want to go public with anything and then be open to so much more scrutiny and regulation or whatever.
5:57John Tucker:Well, I think that's kind of the discussion going back to 2024 when they sold a stake in the company, Pursing Proper. that was viewed as a way to start the process to going public. So there was always a vision to IPO-ing or taking public the management company in some capacity. And it does benefit by, if you're a management company and you're collecting a 2 % management fee, the more assets you have under management, the more fees you have, the more attractive the company does then. So what's the timeline now? So base case at a bare minimum, you need 15 days from this filing before you can launch an IPO process.
6:33John Tucker:It takes about a week or so. So when you look at the calendar, two and a half weeks from now, you get closer to some of the holidays. So maybe this is something that we see starts to hit the road after the Easter holiday when people are back in their seats. But at a minimum, this process cannot formally start for at least 15 days and then we'll move from there. But we're expecting it probably just looking at the calendar, call it right on the other side of April.
6:57Scarlet Fu:OK, again, I mean, some sign of confidence from Bill Ackman that he's moving forward with this in a period where there's a lot of uncertainty about asset prices, about the global economy.
7:05John Tucker:And that's something that they kind of call out in his eight page letter, basically saying that, you know, most of the time companies who are looking at IPOing will not go when there's volatility in the market. Their pitch is, well, if you're giving us money to turn around and invest, well, we should be buying low and then ultimately profiting from there.
7:23Scarlet Fu:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. Find home wherever you roam at Sinesta ES and Simply Suites, where longer stays feel comfortable, flexible, and easy. Stretch out and enjoy spacious accommodations and home-like amenities designed to help you settle in and stay productive or relaxed for however long you need. And when you're a Sinesta Travel Pass member, staying at Sinesta ES and Simply Suites means earning points toward free nights, upgrades, and more with every eligible stay. Go to Sonesta.com to book your stay and unlock the best rates with Sonesta Travel Pass.
7:59Scarlet Fu:Here today, Rome tomorrow. Join now at Sonesta.com. Terms and conditions apply. The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works.
8:10Bailey Lipschultz:At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM.
8:48John Tucker:I'm this cool. Come on now, let's flex those tools. Drive, design, deliver, make it sing.
8:54Bailey Lipschultz:AI builds the deck so you can build that thing. Do that, do that, do that with Acrobat.
9:01John Tucker:Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat.
9:07Scarlet Fu:You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. or watch us live on YouTube.
9:21Bailey Lipschultz:The Kohl's, they had results. In fact, they reported worse than expected sales for the last quarter. They continue to struggle to revive years of declining sales. Let's figure out the Kohl's story this morning. Mary Ross Gilbert, Senior Equity Analyst with BI, covering retail. We actually, Mary, just did an informal survey in the studio. Charlie Pellett, the last time he was in a Kohl's was 10 years ago. Scarlett.
9:47Scarlet Fu:About 10, 12 years ago.
9:48Bailey Lipschultz:Yeah, okay. Me, actually, I do go there, but probably about six months ago. Who is Kohl's customer? I mean, clearly not us.
9:59Mary Ross Gilbert:So, John, the Kohl's customer is largely a low-to-middle-income consumer. And I just went there yesterday just to see what the store looked like. And I did observe that their customers are definitely seeking value. You don't always see a lot of bags because they're in there carefully choosing, trying to find value. And so this is why the company has brought on deal bars. Those are$10 and under items. And now they've announced that they're also bringing in toy bars. So they want to also feature items, again,$10 and under with different price points of like$4.99,$5.99, et cetera. So they're really trying to gain traffic and conversion, but really they're also leaning into their private brands.
10:48Mary Ross Gilbert:So, for example, I did observe that Elsie Lauren Conrad, which is their women's label, it's a really fun label. And they did a great presentation in the store yesterday. The problem is that the rest of the store is still not really cohesive. So we're really not there in terms of where we need to be, where you can see a real cohesive strategy. And we saw a lot of clearance in the stores as well. So they still have a road ahead, as you highlighted, with the four years of stacked comparable sales declines.
11:24Scarlet Fu:Yeah, that's quite a track record to have to turn around. Mary, according to a company presentation at the earnings, Kohl's admitted that it lost competitive ground during high traffic shopping windows, including Black Friday, Cyber Monday and the week following Christmas. When I read that, I thought that that was a fairly startling admission. How do you interpret that?
11:44Mary Ross Gilbert:I wasn't surprised, candidly, because we were there on Black Friday and I could see that shoppers were trying to spend because you get sort of a free the minute you walk in the door, you get a free Kohl's cash and you scratch it to figure out how much cash you get. And trying to find a way to spend it was a challenge because there were a number of excluded items. And while they've increased the number of brands that are not excluded, there's still a fair amount. So there was some confusion and not a lot of customers were walking out with bags is what we observed. So we felt like, you know, it was hard pressed, let's say, to find a way to spend the money.
12:23Mary Ross Gilbert:So they really needed to do a better job. And that's what they admitted on finding values. And that's why they say that their margins this year, you know, are going to be hard pressed because they need to get the sales lift, right? They've done such a great job on managing expenses and they'll continue to do so. But until they get the sales moving in the right direction, they're not really going to see that margin improve because they do have to be more promotional, have sharper values, and so that's going to impact margin to a certain extent. But it's important so that they can be competitive because we saw strong results in off price, as you know.
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13:04Bailey Lipschultz:You could hear me early this morning going, ouch, as I filled up the car. It was, what did I say, 360 a gallon. Did that come up in the call with the executives? Oh, good question. I mean, it's probably the last thing they need for their customers to be paying lots more for other stuff.
13:23Mary Ross Gilbert:John, you're absolutely right. And this customer is really going paycheck to paycheck. And so when you do have gas prices going up, that's going to impact their discretionary income. And that's the importance that they really have those sharp values in the store. So that's what they're hoping to achieve. They're really leaning into their private brands, and they've got a campaign by Kohl's, which features their brands like So for Juniors. And that actually did well because they really featured that heavily in the stores. We observed it yesterday. And so, you know, I think, and that also helps on the margin side to a certain extent.
14:04Mary Ross Gilbert:But again, you know, they really need overall sales to rise to really get margins to move in the right direction.
14:11Scarlet Fu:This is a company, as you pointed out, has been struggling for about four years with same-store sales not performing very well. You just look at the sales growth over the last couple of years, and it's a bunch of negative numbers starting from 2023 on. What is needed here to really change the trajectory of Kohl's? I mean, how much longer can it go in this same direction before it becomes a candidate for takeover by another company or by private equity or I mean, something needs to change, perhaps?
14:45Mary Ross Gilbert:Scarlett, yeah, you raise a valid point, because when you think about it, they do have a juicy real estate portfolio. So that might be attractive to some strategic buyers potentially. So there could be some interest here. We also think that with over 1 ,100 stores, do they really need to be operating that many stores? They did say on the call that they have no plans to close or open any stores, really. They might have a replacement store here or there, but their objective is really to get this box more productive and also raise digital sales. They really want to take advantage and grow digital sales, too.
15:24Mary Ross Gilbert:So it's really about reaching a point of stability on the top line. And so they're, like I said, leaning into private brands, and they have a number of initiatives, but it's going to take time. So they're already guiding toward comparable sales declines of about 1 % to 3 % in the first quarter. And when you look at the stacked four-year comp decline they're going against or cycling, that's a 17 % decline. So that shows you the magnitude of the decline. And that's even after gaining a$2 billion revenue business with SoFora. So that means that when you look at the declines in the rest of the business, it's much steeper than the 17%.
16:08Mary Ross Gilbert:And so that's a critical thing to note. And when you think about SoFora, their comp sales were flat in the quarter. Previously, we were seeing increases. So that business has really matured at this point. And that's why they've got a number of initiatives there, bringing in more brands to really ignite and try to grow that business.
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17:42Scarlet Fu:You've got your docs, your plans, your specs, and then invite the crew to build what's next. They talk off the team words. You can't be the render. They think that this design could be a contender. But when somebody wonders, what's the next steps? AI helps you finish the rest. Bolts are tight. Now your plans are fine. Run a smoother business when you're all aligned. Do that with Acrobat. Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
18:18Scarlet Fu:Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. You know, when we look at all the volatility in the markets, it's kind of striking how much investors have to juggle in terms of the different factors out there and, you know, the narratives that they need to contend with.
18:34Bailey Lipschultz:What do we call it? The confluence.
18:36Scarlet Fu:Confluence. That's a great word. Matt Griffin knows the confluence very well. Matthew Griffin is our Bloomberg equities reporter, and he's one of the authors of today's big take story, which is about how market cracks are widening as war, AI and credit fears are colliding all at once. Matthew, great to see you. Scarlett, great to be on.
18:54John Tucker:Thanks for having me.
18:55Scarlet Fu:So the war in Iran just introduces a new shock into the global economy, one that already has investors feeling kind of nervous, kind of confused, certainly very uncertain about all the different things that are taking place, whether it's inflation, whether it is the jobs market, whether it's AI or private credit.
19:13John Tucker:Yes. And what I would say about this is that it really means two things for markets right now. One is even if the war ends tomorrow, even if oil prices go back down into the 60s per barrel, it's not all clear for investors in the way that maybe you think about last spring, Trump paused the tariffs, you have the best day for the S &P 500 since 2008 because a lot of the headwinds facing markets just vanished. That's not true now when you have private credit concerns, when you have fears of AI disruption. And then another thing is that the war also heightens some of those other risks. It makes it harder to refinance loans, private credit loans that aren't working.
19:58John Tucker:If central banks can't cut rates, it puts more pressure on consumers. So it all just adds up to a really tough spot for Wall Street right now.
20:07Bailey Lipschultz:So what's the playbook?
20:08John Tucker:Well, what the head of U.S. rates at Amerivet told us is the playbook is out the door. And I know that maybe isn't a definite answer, but I think everyone is scrambling to figure out what to do here. You know, one thing that I, you know, heard from an investor myself is diversification is really important because there's just a lot that isn't working right now. So you want to make sure you, you know, have some exposure to things that do, but I don't think there is a right answer.
20:44Scarlet Fu:One of the final quotes you have in the story is pretty telling. It's from Matt Maley, who talks about how a lot of people are not so, so concerned because they say, yeah, okay, oil is spiking, but it's not as bad as it was in the 1970s. You know, okay, there might be a bit of some lofty valuations in tech, but It's nothing like 2000. All these comparisons to previous context kind of gives give us a false sense of complacency, doesn't it? Yes.
21:11John Tucker:And it comes back to the idea of the story. So Matt Maley is a strategist at Miller Tabak. What he says is you can't look at each of these risks on its own because the, you know, the problems together can add up to create issues for risk assets. And also that the stock market is really expensive today. So that maybe creates more downside risk, even if the initial issues are smaller.
21:43Bailey Lipschultz:So if a headline crossed and said the door is over, is it all back to normal?
21:50John Tucker:I think that's what we've been hearing is not necessarily. you know, I talked to investors and strategists for a different story last week that was about this question of will Trump and can Trump step in to rescue the markets in the way that he did last spring? The Trump put. The Trump put, yes. And what a lot of people told me is they really weren't holding their breath for two reasons. One, the market hasn't been shaken as badly as it has been last spring. So the administration may not be at that point yet. Although you did see Trump, you know, making some comments yesterday, signaling the war will end.
22:26John Tucker:But the more profound issue is that a war is not as simple to change as a list of tariff rates on a poster board.
22:34Scarlet Fu:This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 10 a.m. to noon Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
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Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Scarlet Fu and John Tucker
-Bailey Lipschultz, Bloomberg News Senior Equities Reporter, discusses Bill Ackman returning to the IPO market with a combined offering for his hedge fund manager and a new closed-end fund, Pershing Square USA. The initial public offering for Pershing Square would give investors stakes in Pershing Square, with every 100 shares of the closed-end fund IPO purchased receiving 20 shares in the management company.
-Mary Ross Gilbert, Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior Equity Analyst, Covering Retail, discusses Kohl’s earnings. Kohl’s rebounded after the struggling department-store chain said it was pleased with its performance so far this year. The positive sentiment given on a call with analysts came after the retailer reported a bigger sales drop than expected last quarter and gave an outlook in-line with Wall Street estimates.
-Matthew Griffin, Bloomberg Equities Reporter, discusses the Bloomberg Big Take story: “Iran War, AI and Private Credit Shocks Press on Market Weakness.”
The war in the Middle East has injected a new shock into the global economy, with oil prices skyrocketing and stock futures plunging before partially recovering. Multiple forces are creating new fragilities in global markets, including the emergence of AI, soured loans in the private-credit industry, a softening US job market, and stubbornly high inflation.
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