BI Weekend: US Antitrust, AI in Retail, Restaurant Sales

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1:32Low quality stocks driving this short-term rally. Bloomberg Intelligence. With Scarlett Foo and Paul Sweeney. On Bloomberg Radio, YouTube, and Bloomberg Originals. On today's Bloomberg Intelligence show, we dig inside the big business stories impacting Wall Street and the global markets. Each and every week, we provide in-depth research and data on some of the 2 ,000 companies and 130 industries our analysts cover worldwide. Today, we'll look at why impulse purchases may still favor in-person engagement, even as retailers ramp up AI investment. Plus, a look at why restaurant sales may increase in 2026 despite economic headwinds.

2:04But first, we move to research Bloomberg Intelligence recently put out on the U.S. antitrust landscape in 2026. According to BI, big businesses in the U.S. are likely to face uneven antitrust enforcement in the first quarter. And on the M &A front, most deals likely have a path to clearance, even those that raise concerns. For more, guest host Alexandra Seminova and I were joined by Jennifer Rhee, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Litigation Analyst. We began by asking Jen if there's an active antitrust monitoring happening now as the Trump administration wants to see deals being made. We are really seeing very little activity from the Department of Justice, a little bit more from the Federal Trade Commission.

2:40But even in their case, it's been pretty restrained. And it seems that both authorities are really willing to work with the companies if they think that there's a problem with the deal to work out some kind of settlement. And that's what didn't exist during the Biden administration and why deal making was so stymied at that time. And I think most companies see if we can come up, if we have a problem, a lot of deals don't, but if we do and we can come up with a solution, we can probably get it cleared. Jen, you mentioned muted activity from the regulators, but are there any industries that they're targeting right now more than others?

3:12Well, it looks like it. It's interesting that we see Boston Scientific has a deal because of the few challenges that have been brought to deals by the FTC, they've been in the health care space. One in the housing area, construction adhesives, which is a recent case they filed, but two in the health care space. And it doesn't surprise me, really, because these are very sensitive sectors, consumer-facing sectors. And that does align with essentially a populist agenda, which they talked about in the beginning when they took on their positions. And so I think we'll probably see if we see continued activity in those areas or other very sensitive consumer areas.

3:49Jen, the past couple of years saw a lot of high profile antitrust cases specifically within big tech. We had rulings against Google and Meta. What kind of precedent have they set for big tech regulation in 2026? Well, what they're showing is that it's going to be very, very difficult for U.S. antitrust agencies to actually tame what they view as monopolistic conduct. I mean, they did win technically against Google with respect to monopolizing search, but the remedy was fairly weak. They didn't get what they were looking for. Look at what Google's doing now with AI, with Apple, which is exactly what the plaintiffs were trying to avoid, you know, dominance in AI after dominance in search.

4:31So the difficulty they have is even where they win on liability, they have a really tough time with remedies. Most U.S. federal judges are going to be very cautious when it comes to meddling in business and the way a sector may develop, especially in technology, because it's so rapidly changing and nobody knows where it's going. So when you have these cautious judges, you're just not going to get the drastic remedies that are probably the remedies that are needed to really do something about the market positions of some of these companies. So we're seeing that it's going to be difficult. But what we haven't seen is much of a let-up on the cases that were inherited from the Biden administration.

5:07This DOJ and FTC are continuing to go after these cases in court. They're continuing to pursue what you might think of as a drastic remedy, a structural remedy. The next test will be Live Nation. Okay, so we'll watch for that. And it's a bit of leftover from the previous administration. We talk about regulators, and that's usually how the antitrust enforcement shows up, or any kind of pushback from government authorities. But there's also the role of President Trump as well. And he's made clear that because he has some firm opinions about certain companies in certain sectors, that he's going to be, what he says, personally involved in some of them.

5:43That's right. Is there a playbook for this? I mean, how do regulators work in concert with a mercurial president? You know, there really isn't a playbook. This is somewhat unprecedented. Now, there are many that would argue that this kind of started during the Biden administration. But we have authorities at the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice that are very much trying to align what they're doing in the anti-trust space with the policy priorities of this administration, I think much more so than in the past. And they just don't look like they'd be willing to buck the White House if the White House has some feel or an issue with the deal.

6:20So we're seeing a lot of alignment, and we're also seeing a lot of lobbying. Preemptive alignment, even. Yes, preemptive alignment, and we're seeing a lot of lobbying, which we hadn't seen before, too, in the overruling of the antitrust division by senior officials who are talking to lobbyists. And so there is a lot of concern right now in the antitrust community about the rule of lobbying really prevailing over the rule of law when it comes to merger enforcement. And this is stuff that we see after the fact, you know, after an announcement has made as opposed to during it. That's right. We see reports.

6:52And of course, I'm not privy to what's going on behind closed doors. But there has been a lot of news reporting and a former senior FTC official who recently left who's spoken out about some of the activities related to the Hewlett Packard Juniper deal. Now, most recently, we have a deal between two huge real estate brokerages, Compass and Anywhere, that was cleared very quickly without even a deep investigation by the Department of Justice that surprised a lot of people. I think it even surprised the companies that had projected to close much later this year. And apparently that was also because lobbyists had stepped in.

7:25Our thanks to Jennifer Rhee, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Litigation Analyst. We move now to a conversation about artificial intelligence. The branding agency Motto recently put out a report about artificial intelligence. It says that while AI makes content faster and cheaper, many companies are discovering a paradox. The more they produce, the less they stand out. For more, guest hosts John Tucker and Alexandra Samanova were joined by Sunny Bunnell, co-founder and CEO of Motto. They began by asking Sunny to explain what happens at the intersection of AI and branding. Well, I think that like AI is changing what it means to create, particularly in the landscape of brand, which is my world and the world that I work in primarily.

8:05And we're told that this is progress, right? And in many ways it is. But the real question isn't really whether AI can make more. we're entering into what we call motto kind of a meaning deficit where it's not it's it's whether you can actually make meaning with your brand in order to stand out in a sea of sameness with volumes of content being produced every day because you know more content doesn't necessarily guarantee value ai is going to accelerate brand creation in a way we haven't seen before but it will also flood the market with sameness and so the intersection of those two things means there's an opportunity for brands to stand out, to have a meaningful difference, and really protect the point of view and the vision of their brands.

8:50Sunny, from a consumer's perspective, what might a consumer notice about a company that's used AI in their branding versus a company that hasn't? Well, I think AI slop is a real thing. We're also seeing a world in which we can't even tell if it's real or fake. To a trained eye, though, particularly in the world of branding, you're able to pick out when there has been a usage of AI to the point of it's not as advanced as I think it could be, particularly in things like image creation, logos, prototypes, even things like article generation. You see a lot of this where people are using the same prompts, they're using the same outputs.

9:32And what that ultimately does is just create this kind of sameness across the industry where, to a trained eye, especially if you've been in branding for a long time. And I also think to consumers, they begin to sort of identify whether or not that that is something that is authentic or something that's been manufactured. To your point, I feel like sometimes when I'm reading things online, I can't distinguish whether it was written by AI or by a person. What is the remedy to that? Well, I think the biggest mistake is letting AI kind of average you out, right? Leaders are using it to sound polished and professional.

10:10And they erase the very thing that actually builds trust, which is personality, imperfection, specificity, right? Point of view. AI can produce language, but it can't always produce belief. And so there's a huge opportunity to make sure that if you're using AI or that you're tapping into those tools, which are incredibly powerful, and they do amplify your ability to do things more efficiently. But you have to be careful that you're not actually like overruling or overriding your own point of view and your own perspective and your own intelligence and originality in favor of those tools in a way that diminishes your own tone of voice or your own personality.

10:51Okay, so give me an example. How do I stand out in the sea of AI? Well, I think you've got to think about number one point of view, thinking about originality, right? So I talked about when abundance goes up, differentiation goes down. So if we're in a world where everybody can use the same prompts and use the same tools and produce some similar assets, there's opportunities for, let's say, a brand to really distinguish their point of view and distinguish their voice. And where does that typically come from? Well, every business on the planet is made up of a unique footprint, a unique culture, a unique group of people.

11:32And when you have more creative power than ever before, we also can, on the flip side of that, have less meaning and creative meaning than ever before. So when you're trying to bring relevance out into your organization or say like your own, maybe your own personal brand, you're looking for opportunities to use AI as a sparring partner, but not a replacement for your own thoughts and ideas and how you see the world. And whether that's content you're putting out, whether that's brand work that you're putting out or brand systems that you're putting out, brand identity and messaging, any way that you can use to sort of have your own clarity and point of view is what's going to help you distinguish yourself in the market.

12:14because customers are going to, they're now beginning to understand that it's kind of like, if you've ever seen that show, is it cake? They know the difference. And so I think you're going to see more people driving to companies and organizations that are authentic, that do in some cases like misspell a word or have a typo. Our thanks to Sonny Bunnell, co-founder and CEO of Motto. Coming up, we'll look at some of the biggest worries for CEOs in 2026. You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in-depth research and data on 2 ,000 companies and 130 industries. You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via BI Go on the terminal.

12:51I'm Scarlett Fu. And I'm Paul Sweeney. And this is Bloomberg.

12:57This is Caroline Hyde. And I'm Ed Ludlow, inviting you to join us for Bloomberg Tech, a daily podcast focusing exclusively on technology, innovation and the future of business. Every weekday, we bring you the top headlines from the world's biggest tech companies. From finance to defence, AI to entertainment, and from startups to the magnificent seven. We highlight the latest stories of the people and companies pushing the tech sector to new frontiers and the politics that shape global tech markets. We do this all every weekday, then bring you the most important conversations and analysis in our podcast.

13:31Search for Bloomberg Tech on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. Join us every afternoon on your commute home and stay ahead of the tech news cycle. That's the Bloomberg Tech Podcast. I'm Caroline Hyde in New York. And I'm Ed Ludlow in San Francisco. Subscribe today, wherever you get your podcasts. This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlett Foo and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio. We move next to research Bloomberg Intelligence recently put out on retailers. According to BI, Even as retailers ramp up AI investment, impulse purchases are still favoring in-person engagement. For more, guest host Alexandra Seminova and I were joined by Lindsay Dutch, our Consumer Hardline's senior analyst.

14:14We began by asking Lindsay about how retailers are currently implementing AI. Retailers are mostly using AI to improve employee productivity, move employees up the value chain, improve operational efficiency. And on the customer side, we're mostly seeing it in terms of like a customer service chat bot, maybe some personalization when you look at your email ads. But there's new levels that are coming that will really amp up AI's place in that retail shopping journey. But as you mentioned, I think that spur of the moment, that spontaneity, when you find something that you love and you have to buy it, that's a big piece of the shopping and retail world and that really still you need some human element in that process.

15:01Lindsay, we talk often about the death of brick and mortar stores. People aren't going into physical stores as much as they are shopping online. Do you think that AI can reignite the excitement for going into a store and experiencing the technology? So I actually think we're already seeing a return to brick and mortar. You know coming out of the pandemic you know people realized how important it is to have an in-person experience. More recently, you know, I've heard comments, you know, I follow Best Buy, you know, they have talked about that Gen Z and younger shoppers are showing a much stronger preference to shop in the store, to talk to their geek squad, you know, you know, to get advice, to browse things in person.

15:42We also see that from an Ulta Beauty as well. So I do think e-commerce penetration will continue to rise as a whole. I think these new technologies will continue to support more shopping online. But I do think there is a personal element that will remain. And, you know, we see strong brick and mortar demand on the retail real estate side, and that is expected to continue for some time. Having said all that, how does AI enhance the ability for stores to be able to reach out to consumers so that they are there and have have the right recommendations when consumers are in the mood to make impulse purchases?

16:24Yeah, so right now I think the best consumer-facing use of AI is really increasing discovery, exactly what you're saying. So being able to serve up product online when a customer is looking for it. And this new tool that Google co-developed with Walmart and others, Universal Commerce Protocol, is going to do just that. So you can pop into this tool, which is powered by Gemini, and you can say, I'm looking for a navy boob laser that I don't want to have dry cleaned. And it will serve up, you know, the product from the brand. You can transact right there. So it's all seamless. Something like that, you know, is a great tool to bring product directly to the person and close the gap between looking for something that you want, finding it and transacting it.

17:17And we see a lot of technology coming to the fore that's going to allow that to happen. Lindsay, AI and new technology can be really complicated for consumers to navigate. What are companies doing to help guide shoppers through maximizing the experience they get with AI? Yeah, that's a tough one. I mean, I think that people in generally are using more tools like Gemini for all sorts of things, chat GPT, that will increase that comfort level. And we have seen over time, I also cover home furnishings. In the beginning, when people were starting to transact online, no one wanted to buy a couch or a big product like that, that you would typically want to sit on and feel.

18:02And that over time, retailers have figured out how to showcase their product in a digital way that makes customers more comfortable transacting. on a big ticket item like that that you would normally really want to see in person. And I think the same thing would be true for these other new technologies. It will take time. You know, adoption will rise. It will rise slowly. And that's why I think it's a real balance. You have to be, you know, in that tech world, but you also have to be in person. Our thanks to Lindsay Dutch, Bloomberg Intelligence Consumer Hardline Senior Analyst. We move next to research Bloomberg Intelligence recently put out on restaurants.

18:41According to BI, U.S. restaurant same-store sales looked to accelerate in the first quarter due to cheaper gas prices and relief from new tax rules. For more on this, guest hosts John Tucker and Alexandra Seminova were joined by Michael Halen, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Restaurant and Food Service Analyst. They asked Michael to break down BI's most recent research. We think sales are set to improve here in 2026, especially in the first half. You know, gasoline prices are down, you know, 13-ish percent versus 1Q of last year. We're lapping, you know, bad weather, cold weather, snow, and a really bad flu season from a year ago.

19:22And then we have tax relief, which historically really helps restaurant spending. And, you know, and then we have a couple things on the upside. I mean, this administration is looking into, you know, potentially credit card reform. And I don't know if they're done with the tax reform. And we could see more interest rate cuts. So all of those things we think are going to feed into better consumer sentiment. And we saw that in some of the economic data last month. And we think it spells, you know, a much better year for restaurant spending. Are we talking about Daniel Blue's restaurants or Mickey D's?

19:59Well, you know, we think McDonald's, you know, a lot of the chains we cover are going to benefit. But we think, you know, McDonald's and Taco Bell in our most recent note were two that we pointed to because low-income consumers are going to benefit from the tax reform. They're the segment of the consumer that have kind of pulled back from restaurants in the last couple of years. And so giving them a boost with tax reform, they're the ones that, you know, are most sensitive to gasoline prices. so the cheaper gas is going to help them the most. These things are all pointing to better results at fast food chains like McDonald's and Taco Bell.

20:38Are there any specific chains that you think will be bigger beneficiaries than others? Well, outside of those two, Kava and Wingstop are a couple of names that we think can have big bounce back years. You know, Kava, you know, in a vacuum, it had a very good year, right? But they didn't hit lofty targets that they had set and earnings slowed off of a very strong 2024. And so we think they're set up really nicely to see an acceleration here in same-store sales. And kind of the same thing in Wingstop. Both of them were victims in 2025 of incredible 2024 success. And now that they have much more reasonable same-store sales comps to lap, you know, we think we could see a big boost there.

21:25You know, Wingstop, one of the big things that they have going on is a new smart kitchens that are going to massively help the operations, improve speed of service, and get people their wings hotter and faster. Oh, okay. What are you talking about, the intersection of AI and chicken wings? Yeah, I mean, you know, restaurant business, listen, the restaurant business, man, has been historically under-invested in technology, you know, and they've been quickly trying to catch up. It's a stove and a frying pan and a deep fryer. What technology? Yeah, well, listen, when you go and sit down in a restaurant and you have five people ordering five different things, right, you don't start them all at the same time, right?

22:11Like your sushi is going to be done a lot, maybe faster or slower than my chicken teriyaki. And so technology is being used in the kitchen to let the cooks know when to fire each meal so that everything comes out at the exact same time hot. So there's definitely a lot of uses for artificial intelligence and smart kitchens in this industry. Our thanks to Michael Halen, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Restaurant and Food Service Analyst. We move next to a recent survey from the Conference Board, an organization that helps leaders navigate the biggest issues impacting business. The Conference Board surveyed nearly 800 CEOs about their biggest worries heading into 2026.

22:48According to the survey, CEOs in the U.S. say uncertainty is their biggest economic worry, while global CEOs say that it's outright recession. Guest host Alexandra Simonova and I were joined by Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. We began by asking Dana to explain why it feels like global CEOs are a little bit more pessimistic than ones in the U.S. Well, I think the case is that in the U.S. we've been calling for a recession repeatedly every year. It just hasn't happened. And even still, with the pressures of tariffs flowing through and companies kind of sitting on the sidelines when it comes to hiring, that maybe that's just less so important.

23:29But still in all, companies don't know what the regulatory environment's going to look like. Every day there's a new announcement about an initiative. Oftentimes these initiatives are aimed at increasing affordability for consumers, but it can have, you know, just really rattle entire industries. And so I think those are the types of things that companies are continuing to expect, but they are still concerned about making profits and they are gearing themselves up and preparing ways to do that. Absolutely. And that is their mandate. That is their job. That is their fiduciary duty. How does AI play into that, according to your survey?

24:10Sure. AI is both a foe and a friend. So the foe aspect is many of them believe that AI is going to be disruptive. So disruption can be positive or negative. But in this context, they said AI is going to be very disruptive. It's going to upset our business models, all these things. But they also are looking to adjust their business models to incorporate AI, incorporating AI in terms of maximizing supply chains, but also AI in marketing and investing in AI to make increased productivity of workers and their operations. And most importantly and interestingly, CEOs are looking to invest in their people to make sure that their people are ready for the next digital age, which is clearly AI.

24:58And Dana, amid this big change that AI is bringing, I see in your survey that they talk about how they're also placing greater emphasis on mental health and gender equality. What are some of the actions that they're taking there? Sure. We asked about human capital challenges and also priorities. So the challenge was, I can't remember the biggest challenge. I think it was about AI and kind of getting your people ready for that. But well-being was really low on the list. But however, when we asked about what are some of the social issues you want to delve into in order to support your brand and profits, and it was mental health.