Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 15th, 2026

0:00Guneet Dhingra: If you invest or lead a business, one-sided views aren't enough. Join me, Brad Rogoff, and my team at Barclays Research as we debate what's driving markets on the Flipside podcast. Find the Flipside wherever you get your podcasts. The world of business is constantly evolving and Comcast Business keeps you totally in step with secure AI-backed networking in more than 100 countries. They're powering over 90 % of the Fortune 500 and millions of small businesses. That's a lot of muscle. And behind it all, thousands of experts answering your call at 2 a.m. like it's 2 p.m. One partner powering how business gets done for companies around the globe.

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1:24Harvey Schwartz: Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news.

1:32Guneet Dhingra: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Farrow, along with Lisa Abramowitz and Anne-Marie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. The president, of course, calling AI safety concerns a sick conspiracy, blaming Beijing during a call with the NVIDIA boss, Jensen Wang.

2:05Ted Mortonson: They're just playing right into the hands of a lot of people that don't want to see it happen. And that could be political people. It could also be China. And we're not going to let that happen. It's a hoax.

2:17Guneet Dhingra: Ted Mornison of Baird writing, The cloud titans, the Republican and Democratic parties are trying to control the future narrative to control global economic outcomes. This is a battle for regulated control. Ted joins us now for more. Ted, I feel like I'm facing down a psyop conducted by the leaders of technology, and I don't really know what to think anymore. What are you telling your PMs about what's happening here? I think, number one, everybody's got to take a deep breath. This is just in this hysteria phase. It reminds me a lot of, to some degree, what happened in COVID, where everybody is going to die and et cetera, et cetera.

2:55Guneet Dhingra: I think everybody's, like I said, has got to take a deep breath and actually deal in the facts. There are arguments, as Lisa said, on both sides here. But I think going forward, we've really got to look at the facts and react to the facts and have a strategy. I'm not a huge believer in the federal government regulating an industry. I think the cloud titans and even the VCs that have funded these companies really have to go forward and protect the industry and self-regulate and get away from this hysteria going into the midterms. Ted, do we not have liability rules already on the books that make the risk so large for these corporations that they should be self-regulating themselves anyway?

3:46Guneet Dhingra: That's exactly right. And I think Anthropic opened themselves up for a review of their IPO, quite frankly, on that point exactly. The industry has to stay within the guardrails. And if they can't, bringing in the politicians, I think, is probably one of the worst mistakes. Because, quite frankly, they're not equipped to understand this technology. So I think going forward, the CEOs better get together and refine their message and refine their strategy.

4:22Harvey Schwartz: Who do you think the frontier models are actually worried about? It's not necessarily open source that doesn't have the same kind of compute power. So the anthropics of the world, the open AIs, the XAIs, are they worried about China? Are they worried about each other? Are they worried about themselves?

4:39Guneet Dhingra: I think they actually are worried about open source. Open source, if you look at what NVIDIA has done with Nemotron in conjunction with Palantir, that combination is impacting the frontier model's pricing and availability. If you look at some of these open source models, whether you're using Gwen from Alibaba or Nemotron from NVIDIA or any of the open source models, those token costs go right through the floor. And to some degree, that influences to a great degree what the frontier model's pricing model looks long term. So I would say it's a strategy to put open source in a box from a regulatory standpoint.

5:33Guneet Dhingra: And my personal opinion, that's very dangerous.

5:36Harvey Schwartz: So, Ted, how much is this an existential fight for a business model rather than an existential fight for humanity?

5:43Guneet Dhingra: It's both. I mean, listen, this is a very complex discussion and the technology is moving so quickly that I think both sides of the coin have to be addressed.

5:58Harvey Schwartz: How much do you think also these tech executives are responding to the American backlash you see in polls and in states that want a moratorium on data centers?

6:08Guneet Dhingra: Yeah, I've been on your show before And I think their message is not very good. And I think the tech titans, whether it be Microsoft, Amazon, Google, you know, even NVIDIA, they have to convince the U.S. population, the entire population, what AI could do for humanity versus self-enrichment that is viewed by, I think, most of the population. Number one, I think we have had massive strides in health care, massive strides in productivity. And they actually have to, I'd say, all buy in on how AI is going to enhance not only the workforce, but people distinctively and the quality of life. I don't think that message is getting out to call it 80 percent of the population if you look at some of the polling.

7:10Guneet Dhingra: It's as many people just sitting here now just want to know what the trade is. Is it a headwind to hardware? Is it a gift to the hyperscalers? How are you thinking about things over at Baird? I think, number one, you have to let the falling knife hit the floor and stop spinning here. it's a degree of capital preservation in the near term as we get in the the midterm elections i think after we get back get through uh the beginning of november i think things will clear up a lot um i my personal opinion is i think this infrastructure trade is going to go on for years and the stock action you saw on the semiconductor index being down 5.8 percent ish uh yesterday was a horrible reaction to what reality is.

8:01Guneet Dhingra: I sat on 70-plus conference calls last earnings season, and this was one of the most robust earnings seasons in tech that I've seen probably in my entire career. And that's saying a lot because I've been around for a while. The bottom line here is things are not going to stop on a dime. And I think we, again, we have to get past this hysteria phase and get through the election and see, you know, what the government looks like on the midterms from a congressional and Senate standpoint and go from there. But my personal opinion is that I think rates and energy are pretty close to a peak. And I would get your shopping list ready very, very quickly because I think after yesterday, there's some incredible buys.

8:57Guneet Dhingra: Stay with us. More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

9:04Guneet Dhingra: if you invest or lead a business one-sided views aren't enough join me brad rogoff and my team at barclays research as we debate what's driving markets on the flip side podcast find the flip side wherever you get your podcasts this is the bloomberg market minute brought to you by comcast business the markets faced plenty of challenges this year rising energy costs higher interest rates push back to massive artificial intelligence spending. But through it all, stocks keep breaking records. And some analysts think they still can with a focus on the fundamentals. Nadia Lovell is head of global equity strategy at UBS.

9:42Harvey Schwartz: Earnings has been good and continues to be good. And while we might be past the peak in earnings growth, we're not past the peak in earnings level.

9:51Guneet Dhingra: But others like Miller-Tabak strategist Matt Maley say those challenges could eventually lead to a downturn. Whenever we see a significant rise in bond yields like we have and a significant rise in oil prices like we have, the stock market always or pretty much always ignores it for a while. And Wall Street may be starting to take notice. A recent Citigroup index shows more analysts cut rather than raise their earnings forecasts for corporate America for the first time in more than five months. That was the Bloomberg Market Minute brought to you by Comcast Business, one partner powering 90 % of the Fortune 500 and millions of small businesses.

10:27Guneet Dhingra: When you add it all up, no one does business like Comcast Business.

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11:40Guneet Dhingra: Here's the latest this morning. The 10 year yield hitting a level not seen since 2007, ramping up pressure on the Fed to hike rates for the first time in more than three years. Ghani Dhingro of BNP Paribas warning, no relief is in sight, writing, quote, 5 % 10-year yields are here to stay. Rate hikes are the necessary but not sufficient condition to prevent a rise in long-end yields. Ghani joins us now for more. Ghani, good morning, good to see you.

12:01Ted Mortonson: Good morning.

12:02Guneet Dhingra: I give you credit, and I often do whenever you come on the program now, because you talked about the 30-year a number of months ago, and you said 5's not the ceiling. Do you feel the same way about 10s this morning?

12:11Ted Mortonson: Yeah, I do. I think the issue with the way the real rise has happened so far is just a reflection of where the fundamental economy has been. We are just catching up to where we need to be. I don't think the Fed is hiking just because they're concerned about the inflation problem. They're also hiking because they're concerned about being behind the curve when it comes to this AI build-out, the consumer strength, and the growth of the economy. You look at a world where small-cap stocks are up 15 % in a year. when rates have gone up 100 basis points. That is unusual, and that's a sign of the economy really doing well.

12:48Ted Mortonson: The other issue also is the economy is not very interest rate sensitive, right? You keep raising rates in the market, you keep raising rates from the Fed, and the AI build-out isn't going to stop based on a 50 basis point rise. The top leg of the K of the consumer isn't going to be affected just yet. And so I think my concern is you might need to see even higher yields from 5 % tenure to have some slowdown at some point.

13:14Guneet Dhingra: Do you see the long end doing the work more so than the front end of the policy rate at the Fed?

13:18Ted Mortonson: It typically always does. I think the economy always has been designed to be more sensitive to where the tenure and the 30 years are. Mortgage rates are indexed off that. Corporate borrowing is indexed off that. So long end does play a bigger role. So in our outlook that we published a while back, we see long-end yields at 5 % on the 10-year, here to stay. And we think just like three hikes is not the ceiling, we think 5 % is not the ceiling for the 10-year.

13:48Harvey Schwartz: If the Fed does hike rates, though, and hikes rates by 75 basis points over the next six months, do you think that caps how much long-term yields can rise, that 10-year yields will stay more closer to 5 % rather than 5.5?

14:00Ted Mortonson: Yeah, so it's necessary but not sufficient, which means, yes, the hike is going to happen. That probably is a given. But I think the real question is the Fed needs to convince the bond market that there is a real plan to solve inflation. And that has to be through a sequence of hikes, not just a one and done, right? So the concern some people have is the Fed might do one hike and they think this is enough for credibility. but for now, maybe temporarily, but the need to make the market be assured that there's a plan of future hikes from this point on.

14:32Harvey Schwartz: At the same time, the market isn't concerned about long-term intractable inflation. That doesn't seem to be where bond yields really are deriving from. It's something else. So how do you factor in that yield term premium that keeps bringing back to for the risk of Fed independence and some of these other sort of ambiguous factors in the sell-off that we've seen?

14:55Ted Mortonson: Yeah, look, I think inflation's sort of underlying murmur in all these conversations. It's been sticky, it's been persistent, but so has been growth, right? Like growth has been going up and up. And if you look at the economic surprises, the biggest economic and the most persistent economic surprise in the last 12 months has been growth. And AI build-out is a huge part of that. So is the fact that we had fiscal support this year. And so is the fact that the Fed's rate has been stimulative because they haven't been at neutral. They have been below neutral. And so that stimulation is only adding to the growth upside surprise.

15:32Harvey Schwartz: Yeah, but a hike is not going to stop AI spending and build-out, is it?

15:36Ted Mortonson: Yeah, so this is the concern, right? Where why will 5 % yields not be enough here? Because as the AI build-out continues, it won't be a 5 % number that stops it, right? So my concern is that we might need to see even higher yields because AI build-out is not stopping. The top leg of the care of the consumer isn't going to stop spending based on that. And fiscal spending, which also is supposed to be sensitive to interest rates, is not going to stop based on that. You had a killer line in there. You think this Fed's been accommodative. Do you think they understand they're accommodative? So I think they are probably realizing this.

16:10Ted Mortonson: And this has been a general issue sometimes where if you look at the way the Fed has talked about the so-called R-star concept, they often figure this out after the fact. After they've seen the economy do well for a certain point of time, they uplift the R-star. In fact, if you look at the last six years since COVID, the long-term R-star dot has been playing catch up with the market. The market's been there all this while, but the Fed's long-run dot has been playing catch up. So I think in some sense, especially in this case, the Fed has been a little bit behind the curve and we're just about catching up.

16:46Ted Mortonson: Final question, just on the size of the rate hiking cycle you're anticipating, can you give me a spread? What's at the low end? What's at the high end? Yeah, so I think three is, in my view, the low end. The high end would probably be six. And I go back to the late 90s where they reversed the three cuts with three hikes first. Didn't seem to move the needle much. Then they went to hike number four, five and six. And that's what got the market talking.

17:08Guneet Dhingra: Stay with us. More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

17:17Guneet Dhingra: This is the Bloomberg Market Minute, brought to you by Comcast Business. The markets faced plenty of challenges this year. Rising energy costs, higher interest rates, pushback to massive artificial intelligence spending. But through it all, stocks keep breaking records, and some analysts think they still can, with a focus on the fundamentals. Nadia Lovell is head of global equity strategy at UBS.

17:39Harvey Schwartz: Earnings has been good and continues to be good. And while, you know, we might be past the peak in earnings growth, we're not past the peak in earnings level.

17:48Guneet Dhingra: But others like Miller-Tabak strategist Matt Maley say those challenges could eventually lead to a downturn. Whenever we see a significant rise in bond yields like we have and a significant rise in oil prices like we have, the stock market always or pretty much always ignores it for a while. And Wall Street may be starting to take notice. A recent Citigroup index shows more analysts cut rather than raise their earnings forecasts for corporate America for the first time in more than five months. That was the Bloomberg Market Minute brought to you by Comcast Business, one partner powering 90 percent of the Fortune 500 and millions of small businesses.

18:23Guneet Dhingra: When you add it all up, no one does business like Comcast Business.

18:52Guneet Dhingra: We'll see you next time. Whether you're sending money to family overseas, spending while on your holiday abroad, or paying bills across borders, Wise makes moving money simple, transparent, and straightforward. Wise offers 24-7 customer service and runs over 7 million daily checks to spot and stop fraud. And most transfers happen in under 20 seconds, which means your money arrives in less time than you've been listening to me. Join millions, saving billions. Be smart. Get Wise. Visit wise.com or download the Wise app today. T's and C's apply.

19:56Harvey Schwartz: in your team's template that you can review before presenting to your leadership team. Growing a business is ambitious, and ChatGPT can help you do it with confidence. Get started at chatgpt.com.

20:13Guneet Dhingra: Got to work through those threads in financial markets right now. We can do that with Bloomberg's Danny Berger joining us now from the Carlyle Group's annual Global Investor Conference in Washington with a special guest. Hey, Danny.

20:26Harvey Schwartz: Hey, John, thank you so much. That's right. I'm here at Carlisle's event and sitting down with the man of the hour. It is the CEO of Carlisle, Harvey Schwartz. Harvey, great to see you and thank you for having us.

20:36Guneet Dhingra: Great to be here and thanks for joining us.

20:38Harvey Schwartz: And look, you're convening hundreds of your investors here today and it's probably not lost in anyone that if we were to just walk about a mile away, we'd be at the Eccles building where the Fed is starting their rate decision. If you were to give them advice, Harvey, because you see into the lens of hundreds of your companies, what are you seeing? Are rates restrictive? Is inflation a problem? Is this a Fed that needs to be hiking rates tomorrow?

21:01Guneet Dhingra: Well, Danny, again, thanks for being here. As you said, we have 400 investors from all over the world have traveled here. Some of the most sophisticated investors in the world. And these are questions that are front of mind. And we have a very, we've talked about this a lot. We have a very unique proprietary data set, as you mentioned. And 15 years ago, we started breaking down the data set and the insights into these portfolio companies. So it's several hundred portfolio companies that employ about 750 ,000 people around the world. What that data set says is amidst all the backdrop of noise, of structural change around the world, de-globalization, the conflict in Iran, the war in Europe, What that data tells us is the economy is doing quite well.

21:49Guneet Dhingra: GDP coming out of August looks like 2.25%, 2.5%. The consumer has been quite resilient. EBITDA is growing. And so really against a backdrop of uncertainty, the economic engine is doing quite well. Inflation has remained sticky, but it's not accelerating, but it's not decelerating. And so I think in terms of the Fed, our folks are not that focused on what any one individual Fed decision means. I would say we're at a period where the Fed will continue to watch the data. The markets obviously are expecting a hike, but it doesn't feel like we're entering a hiking cycle. It doesn't feel like we're entering a cycle where we're going to be cutting rates aggressively.

22:30Guneet Dhingra: And for those that are always wishing for rates to go back to zero, that generally is not consistent with an economy that's doing as well as ours is. So I think the Fed's got their hands full, but I think the market's already made its prediction on what the Fed's going to do.

22:46Harvey Schwartz: Well, I remember in the last rate hiking cycle in 2023, you basically had said, look, we can handle higher rates. It's predictability that's important. Harvey, we're in a scenario now where you have a Fed chair who wants to give less forward guidance. You have an activist treasury. You have issuance from the hyperscalers that's moving around rates. You have an energy crisis. Do we have a predictability problem with rates right now?

23:09Guneet Dhingra: I don't know that we have a predictability problem. I think that the Fed chair has announced a series of initiatives which we think are welcomed by the markets over the long run. I think it's a question of the pacing of how those get implemented. I think that there was a series of policies for the past decade which really were anchored around lower rates, lower rates globally. We have for years now, for three years, been working under the assumption that rates would be structurally higher. Why? Because deficits are larger. The demand for capital around the world is very high. De-globalization is really driving a complete reordering of priorities around the world in terms of how governments and companies think about economic growth.

23:55Guneet Dhingra: And these structural changes are not going away. And when you think about the priorities that countries have, companies have around security, whether it's national defense in a traditional sense or investing in economic growth, data security, energy security, all of this investment requires durable capital. And with deficits being as large as they are, we would expect rates to be structurally higher. But on any relative basis, historically, they're really not that high. For us, in working with our clients, it's about the cost of capital, being disciplined about deploying that capital, and that's how we're focused.

24:38Harvey Schwartz: You've been really active throughout this whole period. Presumably higher rates doesn't really curve that activity. If it's not higher rates, it's not oil at$100. It's not 10-year yields at 5%. Is there anything that can slow this train down at the moment, Harvey?

24:51Guneet Dhingra: Well, when you have economic growth, like we're seeing in the United States, and when you talk about, for example, the stimulus that is being brought to the marketplace globally from the hyperscalers, if we were talking about fiscal stimulus on this order, we'd be talking about a massive fiscal stimulus. And we're seeing that across the economy. We're seeing it spread globally across the global economy. And so this massive period of investment does have a crowding out effect. So it puts pressure on bond spreads. It puts pressure on the cost of capital. That should be expected, not feared. But it's fueling economic growth in a very, very powerful way.

25:32Guneet Dhingra: And we're seeing very unique opportunities to deploy capital. And unlike a lot of other people in the industry, we've been returning a lot of capital.

25:38Harvey Schwartz: I was going to say, you've returned$37 billion over the past 12 months. It's a large amount. But Harvey, I do have to ask, because there does seem to be this disconnect. You're leading the market there, but shares of Carlisle itself are lagging your peers. You're down something close to 30 % year to date. What do you think accounts for that?

25:54Guneet Dhingra: You know, the industry went through a period of really accelerated share growth. And then when we were sitting here a year ago, the whole conversation might have been about private credit. It seems like the private credit window's in the rearview mirror. You're probably happy about it, by the way. I would be happy to talk to you about it. We had very strong views on it. They seem to have come to fruition. So at least we were right about that. So we feel good about that. But in terms of the industry, we are very focused on executing our plan. We announced a three-year plan. Second quarter, we had record results.

26:26Guneet Dhingra: We just keep doing our job. The share price will follow. We're very active. Our board approved a$2 billion share buyback in the first quarter. We were very active in the second quarter. We like where the shares are priced. We'll keep buying back shares. We do our job. The share price will follow.

26:38Harvey Schwartz: By the way, you're also announcing today that you're joining MIT's AI Impact Consortium. Its explicit goal is to help deploy AI in a way that's good for society and industry. That's an interesting time for that. What exactly is this? Why are you joining it? What data are you giving them? And how does that impact your investment process?

26:57Guneet Dhingra: So as I said before, for 15 years, we've been rolling up this proprietary data. When I joined Carlyle three and a half years ago, I got very lucky. One of the things that we were working on was how to think about using machine learning to make better investment choices. Taking a step back, we think about this transformative technology really most simply in three ways. How can we run Carlyle better? How can we make better investments? How can we improve the value of the portfolio companies? Full stop, that's it. In terms of the data we have, we have a huge history of proprietary data, which is unique to Carlyle.

27:31Guneet Dhingra: It's unique to being in D.C. for almost 40 years where David Rubenstein, the founder, formed the firm. And so we've been working on how to harness that data, which really prior to the advancement of large language models wasn't achievable and you couldn't do it in the way we can do it today. And we've been very focused on how to build out the ecosystem around the data, how to make better investment choices, how to really create alpha. working with MIT, leading researchers in the world, it's a huge partnership. We're super excited about it. But we have partnerships around the world where we are working with the leaders in the space to see how we can best use our data to make the best investments at every opportunity across the entire platform.

28:13Harvey Schwartz: Well, Harvey, as someone who's, again, implementing AI, looking at how you use it among your portfolio companies, surely within Carlyle, too, helping finance AI, maybe not as much is your peers, but we've reached this fever pitch and concern about what AI means for humanity. As someone involved in this ecosystem, and frankly, just as a leader of thousands of employees, are you concerned?

28:33Guneet Dhingra: I think any time you see transformative technology, and we're in a step function change, I think questions should be raised. I think these are important questions. I don't think anyone knows the answers to these questions, but they're important questions to raise. And I think the debate that's happening today around the safety, the social awareness, I think is a healthy part of the process. I don't think it means that growth will stop. I don't think it means that anyone's saying we should put a halt to this. I think this is a really important technology. I truly do believe we will see breakthroughs in industry growth.

29:07Guneet Dhingra: We'll see breakthroughs in medical science. I think we'll see extraordinary opportunities here with this technology. As we go through this, there are going to be moments of growing pains and nervousness. I think it's important as policymakers and the leaders of the technology themselves, and you've seen them start to do this, make sure we have the proper guardrails. Hey, people figured out how to put airbags in cars. We can be able to do two things at once. We can grow one of the most important transformative aspects of technology ever, and at the same time do it in a safe way. I'm very confident that can happen.

29:36Harvey Schwartz: Hey, Harvey, we have less than a minute here, and I have to ask you before we go. Exciting news for you all in your minority investment in the Seahawks. And perfect timing considering the Seahawks just won the opening game, too. Why do this? Your first franchise, why do it with the NFL? Why back Vinod Khosla's purchase of the Seahawks?

29:54Guneet Dhingra: Well, we're thrilled to support the Khosla's in their purchase of the Seahawks. You know, for everything we just talked about, everything in the AI world, you can't walk anywhere without someone being on their phone. If you walk through the cities of New York or the streets of New York or you're walking through D.C., everybody's on their phone all the time. You know, one thing people crave, they crave content. They crave being together. They like arguing with their friends about their teams and then being friends afterwards in a very polarized world. And so we're big believers in the opportunity to play capital in a space that brings people together.

30:30Guneet Dhingra: So is this more to come then, it sounds like? So, yeah, sports mean entertainment is not something new for us. We've been doing it for a long time. There are other investments we've made and announced. I won't go through those given I know we're short on time. But we're thrilled for the Seahawks. It was a fantastic game. Did you watch it?

30:44Harvey Schwartz: I caught part of it, yes. I'm not a big football person, but I had to watch one of the first games.

30:48Guneet Dhingra: We can cut that part out of the show. But we're thrilled to be part of the NFL. It is the world's leading sports franchise. I was rooting for the Seahawks for what it's worth. Okay, well, great. We'll get you some swag. Okay, perfect. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV, weekday mornings from 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. Eastern. subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.

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