CPI and National Security since 9/11

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1:32This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. CPI coming up in just a few minutes. Really instrumental on how the Fed is going to move going forward. Tani Fukui joins us here, Senior Director of Economic Market Strategy at MetLife Investment Management, located in the bustling financial hub of Whippany, New Jersey. Tani, thank you. There really is a town in Jersey called Whippany. It's a great place. Tani, thanks for joining us here.

2:12What are you looking for in a CPI? How do you think, what are you looking for? And how do you think the Fed's going to kind of deal with the CPAC print? Yeah, so it looks like it will come in at least at 0.2%. If you start looking at what the pricing was in terms of Fed funds pricing, as well as looking at the betting markets, Calci and Polymarket, we've seen a big jump in the last 24 hours about that inflation is going to come in a little bit high. Okay. So given that, you know, if you get something like 0.3%, that's a fairly balanced 0.3 % on core. I always look at the core inflation. You can pretty much see that the Fed is going to have to start, is going to have to do a hike in September.

2:57Now, if it's something like airfare or, you know, one or two idiosyncratic things, then perhaps there's something to argue about there. But generally speaking, there's a pretty low bar for the Fed to hike at this point. This is where we are in the world, Lisa, where we have an undergraduate, personally, the undergraduate degree from the Wharton School of Business, pretty good. Master's from Columbia, okay. PhD, international and macroeconomics from UCLA, whatever that is, good. Quoting the betting markets, Cal Xi and that kind of stuff. That's where we are in the world of global Wall Street financial analysis.

3:31I never had that when I was doing it. It matters. I mean, it seems that there's - It's crowdsourcing real-time information. I know. It's a total thing now. How big do you think that is? Yeah, I mean, it is actually, you know, it's a question of is, you know, and I don't know if there's any kind of leak, but that's happened in the past, right? And perhaps it's just, especially in the Fed funds futures markets, just folks trying to get ahead of what they expect to have happen at the FOMC. But, you know, we don't know what other information there is, and that's one way of seeing what there might be out there.

4:07In the two minutes we have before we get to the data, I want to take a step back and go back to yesterday's PPI report. Are we looking at a temporary energy-driven inflation bump, or is this the beginning of kind of a broader reacceleration in inflation? What's your take on it? I mean, I think that you have to, when you're in the context of the Fed and in the context of inflation, I think you have to take PPI with a great deal of, large grain of salt. There's only so much correlation between the two. and there's a lot of margin effects that are happening there where the companies can actually absorb certain margins, wait a certain amount of time until they think consumers can actually handle it before they actually pass those prices on.

4:52So I don't think that, I think that you have to be really careful before you start interpreting that as a Fed signal per se, but clearly this is a yield story where a lot of the long end of the curve, in my view, is driven by two things, more so than the debt, which one is the energy story, as you said, and the other one is market uncertainty about what Warsh wants to do. Those are things that are driving a lot of the long-end pricing. All right, folks, this is what you want to do right now. You're sitting at your terminal, go ECOGO, and it pulls up all this stuff you need to see. And again, core CPI, month-on-month, the headline consensus is 0.4%.

5:37Core, 0.2%. I guess we're going to focus on that one. Annualized, I look at the kind of the core annualized because I'm an annualized kind of guy, 2.4%. That seems okay to me, but apparently it's not really okay for the Federal Reserve. So we will pay attention to this. CPI data from the federal government. This is Bloomberg. The consumer price index for August crossing the Bloomberg terminal, and it shows consumer prices rose three-tenths of one percent last month. That is, or rather, up four-tenths of one percent last month. That is right in line with estimates and higher than the 0.1 percent rise we saw the prior month.

6:18Most of this rise thanks to higher energy prices. Year over year, consumer prices remain flat at 3.4 percent. That's what Wall Street was expecting. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy costs, is rising three-tenths of a percent month over month. Wall Street was expecting a rise of two-tenths of a percent. And that's what we had in the month of July. Now, as for core CPI year over year, coming in at 2.4 percent, so a little lower than the 2.5 percent we saw in July. But again, right in line with estimates. Now, analysts are quick to point out this data may already be stale. Just yesterday, crude oil rose above$100 a barrel.

6:57And we also saw Brent crude surging past$107 a barrel. Still, investors believe the Fed's decision next week on whether or not to raise interest rates could hang on today's inflation report. So once again, we've got CPI month over month up four-tenths of a percent, year over year rising 3.4 percent. A largely in-line report. Back over to Paul and Lisa. Alexis, thank you so much. We appreciate that. There you go. inflation data on the CPI level. This Bloomberg Business Flash or Bloomberg Surveillance is brought to you by IBKR. For the past three years, Interactive Brokers' individual clients averaged 24.3 % annually, beating the S &P 500.

7:35Lower costs and access 170-plus global markets. That matters. Visit IBKR.com slash performance. We are joining with Tani Fukui, Senior Director of Economic and Market Strategy at MedLife Investment Management. Tani, Alexis was just reporting, kind of the CPI stuff kind of came in more or less in line. How do you think our Federal Reserve is going to deal with this or interpret it next week? Okay, so now Warsh really is in a corner. It depends, of course, on the details. We haven't seen the details yet, or I haven't seen the details, I should say. But the problem here is that he gave such a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole that, you know, if we didn't know that he constantly says this is not forward guidance.

8:18If Powell, for example, had given that speech, the markets would have been like, okay, cool. We're on a hiking cycle. We're going to be hiking in September, blah, blah, blah. We would march on, right? Yields would probably come down because we would say inflation is under control. Like long-end yields would come down because inflation is under control. The problem with Warsh is he wants to have that. He wanted to actually have that optionality and he wasn't able to really necessarily articulate what does he do in a situation where inflation comes in relatively calmly. 0.2 % is a pretty good inflation number.

8:49It's been this or lower, roughly, for the last three months. It's been actually 0.2 or lower for most of 2026. So why hike now? It's a question and not something that Warsh has really been able to, has really discussed. Why not hold? So what does Warsh need to do differently? Yeah, what Warsh needs to do is more specifically understand his, I think he doesn't understand the power of his own words. He needs to, if he wants to have optionality, provide a much more fulsome picture of which scenarios could lead to a hold, which scenarios could lead to a hike. What is he really looking at? Last time in Jackson Hole, he's focused a lot on hike and not enough on hold and timing.

9:42Interesting. That's the old reaction function. We love to know what the reaction function of the Fed is. Tani Fukui, thank you so much for joining us. Tani Fukui is a senior director of economic and market strategy at MetLife Investment Management. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. If you invest, lead a business, or allocate capital, one-sided views aren't enough. Join me, Brad Rogoff, the global head of research at Barclays, on the Flipside Podcast. Each month, I go head to head with one of our expert analysts on my global team to debate the economic and market issues that matter most.

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12:04You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. Listen, folks, if you're a bank, if you're a financial institution, you want to issue a bond, some stock, you want to buy a bank, sell a bank, do something, anything in the banking space, let's be honest. Your first call is KBW, Keith Barrett and Woods. Those folks have been doing a phenomenal job in the banking sector, financial advisors in the financial services industry themselves for decades.

12:42And they also have some serious 9-11 history here. KBW's headquarters on the 88th and 89th floor of the South Tower of the World Trade Center. Firm lost 67 of its 171 New York-based employees that day. Tom Michaud joins us here. We really appreciate him sharing some of his time. Tom Esho is a president and CEO of KBW. Tom, thanks so much for joining us. I know this is an important, important day for you and your firm. Tell us what the 25th anniversary of 9-11 means to you and the good folks at KBW. Well, good morning, and thank you for having me join you this morning. For us, it's a couple of things.

13:22It's always we think about the families. It's the families first or the victims. and we've continued to stay in touch with the families who really wish to continue to stay in touch with us. And then we think about the next chapters of 9-11 that are still being written. This story is not done yet. And I think it's because while the mourning of 9-11 is some of the worst of humanity, what's happened since 9-11 is some of the best of humanity. And when you think about the goodwill, the unity, the resilience that existed in our city and in our country and that my firm was the beneficiary of that allowed us to recover and move forward, that's what's important.

14:13And I think that's the best way to honor the victims of 9-11. And so thinking about how we've been working hard ourselves to turn 9-11 into a national day of service, for example. We think that is important to us as we think about the next chapters of 9-11. Tom, how did the company come back from such a devastating loss? I mean, what kind of lessons were learned there? Well, so I went to night school at NYU to get my MBA. there was no chapter in any textbook that I read to say what to do when that happens. Okay. And when I look back as to how we were able to rebuild, it's all about your values and it's all about the culture and the people that you're around.

15:04And we collected ourselves quickly after 9-11 and we said, we're going to do a few things. We're going to, we want to do the best we can to help the families of the victims, our friends and colleagues. And rebuilding the firm was the best way to do that. And so we just made one decision at a time. We had a goal. We weren't going to let the firm end that way. We weren't going to let the terrorists win by flying planes into buildings and ending all our work. And we had a mission and we were united in doing it. And in many ways, it was therapeutic for us to be able to do that. And so really, I think it comes down to values, values and culture.

15:46I mean, we have a lot of smart people at the firm. A lot of firms have a lot of smart people. But if you have the right way of working together, we're a we firm, not an I firm. We collectively put ourselves together. We said we were going to do it. And we were able to rebuild the firm. So, Tom, obviously, unfortunately, you lost so many of your New York based employees, including some of your key leaders, co-CEO Joseph Barry, parished that day, as did research director David Barry, five of nine board members. The days after that, how did you guys just kind of stay together, I guess? It's first of all, what I'll tell you is the grieving was real.

16:29No two people grieved the same way. And there was a lot of grief about what happened. And it was simultaneous. We were dealing with our grief. We were talking to the families. While at the same time we were trying to rebuild our firm, we had to get ready for trading the next week. The markets opened on Monday after that Tuesday. Our systems were ready, but our people weren't ready. And we waited to Tuesday before we did our first day of trading. And so we just went about rebuilding our business one step at a time. And look, all of our records were destroyed. All of our physical property was destroyed.

17:12We lost a lot of our leadership. Over 35 % of our firm's capital was owned by those who were killed that day. We were privately held at the time. And we figured it out. And I think what it goes to show you is even under the most unthinkable and bearable circumstances, you can do it and you can do it. And, you know, when you think of messages, I remember after the weekend of the global during the global financial crisis when the GSEs failed. That morning, I pulled the firm together and I said, we don't own any subprime mortgages. We're not in that business. We're going to be OK. But this is terrible for markets in the country.

17:52And everybody left the meeting except for one young man. He stayed and he turned to me and he said, Tom, you know what? We know this isn't the end of times because we've actually seen the end of times. So we know this isn't it. And the end of times was standing on the sidewalk of the World Trade Center on 9-11. That was pretty bad. And so you just know that you can figure it out. And it was literally one decision at a time. We hired people for us. We had an incredible number of people who were willing to bet on us to come join our firm. Some of them had been former employees who came back. We literally interviewed thousands of people as we went about rebuilding.

18:32But we always stayed true to our culture and our mission. And I think that's why we were able to be successful and our value. Yep. And today, KBW is now part of Stifo Financial, employs 352 people globally, and 24 employees who were with the firm on 9-11 still work there today, including CEO Tom Michaud. Tom, thanks so much for joining us. Tom Michaud, he's the president and CEO of KBW. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

19:05You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. On a day like today, 25-year commemorating 9-11, you need perspective. We need perspective. And our next guest provides that. Jack Devine, he's a former CIA director at, and he's also a founder at the Arkham Group. He was at the CIA for 32 years. He has seen it all in all places around the world. And he's been kind enough over the years to share his thoughts when we talk about geopolitics and security and intelligence as it relates to national security.

19:44Jack Devine joins us here in studio, founder of the ARC Group. Jack, thanks so much for joining us. 25 years since 9-11. Tell us how the world changed on 9-11, 2001, from your perspective. Well, it's certainly there are events in history that rock rock history and change it. And that was one of them. I don't think any of us were prepared for it. I was in London several months earlier when bin Laden put out a fatwa. And I had to go reach out to the former chief in the field in Islamabad when we were fighting the Afghan war. And he said, well, there's only two little notes about him. And he was a minor player and he was supported by the Arabs.

20:23But boy, did that change history. And we went after bin Laden. It took a long time. But it also led to two wars, Afghanistan and Iraq. And I think when you look at the larger arc of history, I think we're going to be saddened by those two wars. My own view was we probably should stick with covert action. It's Joe Paul. For years, I've been pushing that theme. Few people remember that after the 9-11, the CIA with special forces brought down the Taliban, actually brought it down. and I'm disappointed, if you will, in the historical sense that we didn't stick with that instead of getting involved in the two wars.

21:04From that, we can go on to where we are today in the Middle East and so on. Yeah, that said, where we are headed in the Middle East, the war against Iran. Where would you say we're headed in that direction? Well, I think what's really amazing to me, Lisa, is that it all started on October 7th, one event again the hamas attack on the israelis which led to a major shift in the middle east if we think back of iran at that time it was a major political force in the region i would say today it's a powerful nuisance but what look what how it has changed iran itself is physically weakened It's that nuclear capabilities have been marginalized.

21:49Hezbollah, its strongest ally, has been, the leadership has been wiped out. Hamas has been destroyed. Syria, a friend of Russia as well as Iran, has now shifted, changed its colors. So today, what I would say is the Middle East is much more, much different, more unstable, but it represents the new world of asymmetrical warfare, economic attacks. And I think it's going to be messy. But it's not that Iran can possibly conceive of winning. They're very, very good in the negotiating table. They think they can win the negotiation. And I'm not betting against them. What do you think is the most realistic, reasonable resolution to the U.S.

22:33situation in Iran, U.S. and Israeli situation in Iran? I thought we were on the right path. I think when President Trump attacked the nuclear sites, I think America was never more powerful. That doesn't mean more armies, more weapons, the use of power. And one can debate that. But I think a short pause to give the Iranians a chance to negotiate should have taken place. What I'm concerned about is we've gone on to protracted negotiations with the Iranians, which is always a bad strategy. and we got sucked into the concept of regime change. And again, you and I have talked about regime change and what it takes.

23:12There were no reasons to believe that a regime change was possible. When you have military, you do not have military force on the ground fighting against others, you're not going to change it. So when we look at what we have today, sadly, I think it's going to be, we're going to play this game of some attacks followed up by our, reciprocating back and forth through the election. I don't think we're going to get to a meaningful negotiation. And I think the outcome will probably be we'll return to warfare to try and finish it off. If not, we're going to have a what will be my vision of the world for some time to come will be this messy situation where seemingly weaker powers hold off big powers, as in the case of Ukraine and now in the case of Iran.

24:01So I'm anticipating that there'll be a lot of pressure to try and cap this off. And that's about the only, I reluctantly say this, I'd not, I like to use covert action rather than war. But I'm just saying, I think there was an opportunity. I think we lost it. And I think we need to be realistic about it. How has the national security world changed? And where are we going? Well, one of the biggest things is, I think, is the introduction of drones and AI. And the combination has changed warfare. It has changed the game completely. So I think because of that, as I was saying a minute ago, I think it's not a clear-cut battle between big winners and big players and small players.

24:47And it's going to be a very complicated world. I remember talking to one of the generals who led the forces in Ukraine, and I complimented him on the drones. He said, no, Jack, that's yesterday. It's AI. I wasn't sure what he was talking about. But I became a believer in AI about a year ago, and now I can see what it really means. So the world is going to change dramatically, and I think we're going to have an untidy world for a few years. I think it will settle out. but i think the old paradigms are not working won't work but it's wrapped around this technology i do believe this lack of this asymmetrical war will change because eventually money if i'm a rumor i want to hit that right the powerful countries will widen the gap in how you really control this technology and i think if i could reach out of several years i'd say we back we'll be back to a bipolar world of China and the United States.

25:45And it'll be rooted in what I see the second dimension of warfare today is economics. All right, Jack, thank you so much for joining us. We always appreciate getting your counsel. Jack Devine, he's the founder of The Arkham Group. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. Quick question for you. How much of your day is spent typing? Email, Slack, notes, prompts to chat GPT, Whisperflow is a voice-to-text app. Instead of typing, you talk and it types for you in any app on your Mac, Windows, iPhone, or Android. It takes out the ums, fixes the typos, and the result sounds like you wrote it, four times faster than typing.

26:21So the email that used to take two minutes now takes 30 seconds. Whisperflow is free. Download it at whisperflow.ai. That's W-I-S-P-R flow dot AI. Running a small business takes everything you've got, But with Chase for Business, you're not alone. They bring together local support and a broad range of resources to more than 7 million customers. With a deep understanding of your day-to-day needs, they provide products and guidance built to help you thrive. Right now, earn$500 when you open a new Chase Business Complete Checking account for new business checking customers with qualifying activities.

26:55Offer expires January 21st, 2027. Chase Business Complete Checking has the flexible tools you need to accept payments, make deposits, and manage your finances with confidence. Learn more at chase.com slash podcast biz offer. Chase, make more of what's yours. Fees may apply to Chase Business Complete Checking Accounts. The$500 offer is available for new business checking accounts with qualifying activities through 1-21-2027. Eligibility and qualification requirements must be met. Additional restrictions may apply. Please speak with a business banker for more information. JPMorgan Chase Bank, NA.

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28:40You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. September 11th here in New York City, Washington, D.C., Pennsylvania, and all across the country and the world. It is a significant day here for us. And we're going to have guests throughout the day helping us kind of put that day into perspective. One of them is Joe Daniels. He's a former president and CEO of the National September 11th Memorial and Museum. And of course, Mike Bloomberg served as the chairman of the National September 11th Memorial Museum.

29:21Joe, thanks so much for joining us here. Talk to us about the idea behind the museum. When did it kind of start? How did it kind of come to fruition? Because, again, you guys have created an extraordinary museum and memorial to one of the most infamous days in this country's history. Well, thanks for having me. And our whole approach with that museum is to take a first-person approach, to use the voicemails, the actual sounds and words that all of those victims were speaking on that day. And by doing that, it delivers a real emotional punch. It makes people remember. It makes people remember how this country, this city came together with just limitless compassion in the aftermath.

30:06And when Mike Bloomberg became chairman in 2006, everybody on the project just had this ratcheting up in intensity to get this memorial done by the 10th anniversary. And then, of course, the museum a couple of years later. Joe, I got to say, it's left a mark on on generations of Americans. And I say generations because, you know, I remember after 9-11 and so many people from that day have a story like you remember where you were on that day. But because so much time has passed, there's a lot of folks, my kids, for example, some of my co-workers who don't remember that day and don't have that. Is that what makes this museum so special?

30:46I mean, I brought my kids there. Absolutely. This museum is such a vital resource with every year that goes by. 100 million Americans now, one in three, were not born before 9-11. But when you go to that museum where you stand at the memorial with all of those names etched in bronze forever while you look at the memorial pools, it does transcend you. It does give you a feeling of what this country went through, even if you weren't born then. So from the parents' perspective, it is so important, like you did, to bring your kids down, to bring visitors when they come into town, because people don't forget it once they go through it.

31:28And what I love when I go down there to Lower Manhattan is there are people there all the time, every single day. And they're coming from around the world. And what's great about Lower Manhattan and what you guys have done with the museum is you can just go to the reflecting pools, take it in a little bit, just dip your toe a little bit, just kind of get a sense of kind of what's going on down there. And then, if you want, you can go into the museum and really immerse yourself and really learn the full meaning of what happened down there. Joe, who's a typical person that goes to the museum down there at the September 11th Memorial and Museum?

32:04You know, it's people who visit New York City now. And just about what you said about the vitality and life that's returned there, when Mike was our chairman, that side of it, to restore life to Lower Manhattan, was just a key part of the vision. And if you think about the economic impact, there's been over 60 million visitors just to the museum. All of those businesses that have returned, American Express, building a new tower, all of these, you know, just life down there. But for the memorial and the museum, it's visitors that are coming to New York that know about 9-11 and they want to experience the sacredness, the solemnity, and they leave feeling touched, honestly.

32:51You know, that area, Lower Manhattan, I mean, you've known it before. You've known it now. Can you talk a little bit about the revitalization of that area? Yeah, I mean, I was outside the North Tower on 9-11 and experienced a lot of what happened. I got there right after the first plane hit and then started running after the United 175 hit the South Tower. We all remember the twisted metal, the debris, the smell, the smoke that existed after the attacks. In Lower Manhattan, there was a real fear, not only of residents not coming back, businesses not coming back. And to see all of these years later, 25 years later, that there is life down here, economic activity, and also this solemn memorial and important museum working together, it's a credit to the folks that donated, managed the project, and America, who ultimately, even though it was obviously every step of the way in those early days, there was controversies.

33:57controversies. But when we opened on the 10th anniversary, 15 years ago today, we knew we had done something right. And Joe, it's amazing. My kids, they refer to that area as FIDI. They think it's cool. They think it's hip. That's where they want to be. And to see where it is today, from where it was 25 years ago, and the amount of construction and redevelopment down there is just extraordinary. And your museum is right in the center of it all. Absolutely. I mean, that construction period. Well, first, of course, we have to remember those first nine months after the attacks with that with the rescue and recovery period taking out first looking for, of course, the human remains and then taking out all of that debris set the stage for ultimately where we are today, which is this beautiful memorial and museum and absolute wonderful life that surrounds it.

34:55And, you know, I was talking with Mayor Bloomberg the other day, and he often reflects around now about the three Bloomberg employees that were killed on that day. They're at Windows on the World, the restaurant, of course, that so many remember and was so beloved. It's this day in particular. It's about the revitalization, but it always comes back down to the individuals who were killed, who just got up in the morning and went to work like we do every day. Joe, thank you so much for your time. We really do appreciate it. Joe Daniels, he's a former CEO and president of the National September 11th Memorial and Museum.

35:32And Mike Bloomberg of Bloomberg LP and this radio and TV confab here. Mike Bloomberg serves as the chairman of the National September 11th Memorial and Museum. Just fantastic work in lower Manhattan. For anybody visiting, I just highly recommend it as a must, must period of time to spend down there. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern, on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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