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Bloomberg Surveillance

5 Nov 2026 · 31m · 12 chapters

Episode artwork

Markets Price in Midterms

In short

Post–U.S. midterm election analysis and how markets price the political shift, with a focus on affordability policy priorities and the AI/data-center investment cycle’s impact on stocks, inflation, and labor.

Guest backgrounds

Aaron Covey is editor covering the U.S. House for the Cook Political Report. Christopher Hodge is chief U.S. economist for Natixis. Brad Warden is senior portfolio manager for Science and Tech Funds at Nomura. Sarah Hunt is partner and chief market strategist at Alpine Saxon Woods. (Host: Brad Rogoff, Barclays Research.)

Key claims

Republicans suffered a “generational wipeout” in the House; Democrats aim to prioritize ending the war with Iran, reversing Trump tariff policy, and rolling back Medicaid cuts. Data centers became a defining election issue (including in Texas and Ohio). Labor and wage growth are cooling, keeping inflation pressure contained. AI capex demand remains strong, but election-driven scrutiny suggests a moderation in data-center buildout pace and potential 2027 earnings estimate pressure.

Notable examples

Democrats winning in deep red areas; restrictive data-center measures polling at 43-to-1; a TV poll showing 56% citing AI/data centers; AI trade discussion referencing Anthropics S1 disclosures; hyperscalers and infrastructure stocks reacting differently; housing affordability hurt by tariffs, slower immigration, and ~7.5% mortgages.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

1:40

Midterm Election Overview

Discussion on the implications of the recent midterm elections.

“Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.”
2:10

Democrats' Electoral Gains

Analysis of Democrats' surprising gains and changes in voter concerns.

“Yeah, well, first of all, thanks for having me on.”
4:00

Future Policy Directions

Speculation on how Democrats will proceed with their newfound power.

“Aaron, I guess a lot of folks today are wondering, you know, what are the Democrats going to do with their newfound influence in Washington?”
6:00

Bipartisan Opportunities in Congress

Exploring potential bipartisan issues and challenges for the new Congress.

“And I think it is going to be a very crowded primary on the Democratic side.”
8:06

Post-Election Analysis with Aaron Covey

Aaron Covey discusses the implications of the midterm results.

“I mean, they have to fund the government at the end of the year.”
8:52

Job Market Insights

Insights on the job market stability and wage growth trends.

“Aaron Covey, she's the editor covering the House of Representatives for the Cook Political Reports, getting a lay of the land on kind of the changes we're seeing down there in D.C.”
14:00

Economic Outlook and Labor Market Dynamics

Discussion on labor market trends, inflation, and productivity in the economy.

“But these are generally pretty accurate data.”
18:42

Impact of Fiscal Stimulus on Consumer Spending

Analysis of consumer behavior amid economic pressures and fiscal policies.

“More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.”
25:20

Market Reactions and AI Trade Insights

Discussion on market dynamics post-elections and the future of AI trade.

“You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.”
28:08

Earnings Estimates and AI Trade Analysis

Discusses 2027 earnings estimates and the current state of the AI trade's impact on the stock market.

“So what does this do to 2027 earnings estimates?”
Show all 12 chapters
30:06

Energy Prices and Market Impacts

Explores the influence of energy prices on margins and overall market conditions.

“And I would also say that what happens with energy prices is important in this component part, right?”
32:02

Labor Market Insights and Fed Policy

Analyzes the labor market trends and potential Federal Reserve rate hikes amid current economic conditions.

“It's a good environment for companies that have very good cash flow, very strong balance sheets.”
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Transcript

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0:00If you invest or lead a business, one-sided views aren't enough. Join me, Brad Rogoff, and my team at Barclays Research as we debate what's driving markets on the Flipside podcast. Find the Flipside wherever you get your podcasts. When you're a business owner interested in expanding to new markets, there's a lot to consider and countless questions to answer before making the call. The most important one being, are you ready? That's where ChachiPT comes in. Give it a goal, add your files, and ask chat to help you map out different scenarios for the future of your business. So when growth is on the table, you've got an expansion plan ready to implement.

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1:20Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.

1:30This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Big, big midterm election day for sure. Let's break it down here kind of with a little bit of hindsight here. Aaron Covey, editor for the House of Representatives for the Cook Political Report. Aaron, it seems like yesterday went about as well for the Democrats and as poorly for the Republicans as possible. What's your takeaway here with maybe 24 hours of hindsight? Yeah, well, first of all, thanks for having me on.

2:12This was a generational wipeout for Republicans. Currently, according to the AP, Democrats have won 240 seats in the House, while Republicans have just 147 seats. But Democrats are on track to potentially pick up another 20 seats, which would allow them to surpass their high watermark of the 21st century in 2008 when they had 257 seats. And we saw Democrats across the country winning in deep red territory that had voted for Trump by double digits. But some of the biggest swings were in places like Texas and North Carolina. Yeah. So just looking at some of the stats here, 43 to one across 10 states for restrictive data center measures.

2:55A TV poll found 56 percent of voters said AI and data centers were the major factor in their vote. How important was that in the turnout and getting maybe more rural voters or places where they you know, you were surprised by the turnout? Yeah, look, I mean, cost of living issues, of course, dominated the top of candidates messaging and the ads that I was watching. You know, I would say the dominant issue was the war with Iran, followed closely by tariffs and health care funding. But data centers came up quite a bit, too, and a lot of voters did rank it among their highest concerns, particularly in those rural districts.

3:31You know, I think in Ohio, it had a big impact on the Senate race. There certainly had a big impact on the governor's race in Texas. It was one of the defining issues of that contest. But I think it's an issue that members from both party were vulnerable on, whether they had previously supported the construction of data centers in the past, whether or not they had had support from AI funded super PACs, had done work for AI companies. Those were all liabilities this cycle. Aaron, I guess a lot of folks today are wondering, you know, what are the Democrats going to do with their newfound influence in Washington?

4:06Are they going to try to act on policy issues that got them into office? Or are they going to fall back to maybe some political, you know, vendetta against President Trump and his supporters, whether it be corruption hearings or impeachment hearings? How do you think the Democrats are going to move forward over the next couple of years? Yeah, look, I think it's going to be some of both, but it's very clear that House Democratic leadership wants to focus on those affordability issues. I know the incoming Speaker Jeffries has said that his top priorities are ending the war with Iran, ending Trump's tariff policy, rolling back some of the federal Medicaid cuts that Republicans enacted last year.

4:47So I think that is going to be top of mind. But it doesn't mean that there aren't going to be investigations into the Trump cabinet. You know, even if impeachment proceedings against the president are not brought forth, there are going to be a lot of investigations done by the Oversight Committee into the administration writ large. So, Aaron, not to get ahead, but I'm going to put you on the spot. I know we still have two years, but after last yesterday, after two nights ago, it smells like DeSantis versus Osoff. That's sort of where the betting markets move now. A lot of wood to chop. Let me put you on the spot.

5:18Where do you think sort of the 2028 situation pivoted to from the results you saw? In terms of control of the House, look, I mean, if Republicans are going to win back the House and the Senate for that matter, this is going to be probably at least a two cycle play at this point, given Democrats pretty wide margins there. And the fact that, you know, the map in the Senate, while it favors Republicans structurally, it's not quite as tough for them or not quite as tough for Democrats as it was this cycle. And they have a bit more of a cushion than I think, you know, either party was expecting. In terms of the presidential race, look, I mean, I think you had a lot of strong performances from potential 2028 candidates, whether that's John Ossoff in Georgia or Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania.

6:11And I think it is going to be a very crowded primary on the Democratic side. And the Republican primary is also, I think, going to be shaken up by this, you know, development, because now that Republicans have lost so much, that kind of creates an opening for a different type of Republican candidate to potentially break through. So, Erin, how do you think this House, this now Democratic-controlled House, the House leadership, presumably Hakeem Jeffries. Is there a path where this House can work with the administration, with the president? Because at one point, the president says he's going to be Mr.

6:46Vito. But then yesterday, he says he's willing to work with this Congress here. What's the expectations at this early stage? Yeah, look, I think it is very difficult to try to predict the president's willingness or desire to work with Congress on some of these issues. But I do think there are plenty of issues where you could see bipartisan consensus. I think stock trading among members of Congress and banning that comprehensively is one issue where you could see bipartisan support. You know, Americans made it clear that corruption was also a driving issue for them this cycle as well. And, you know, that is not just focused on the Trump administration at all.

7:27It's focused on elected officials writ large. And a lot of politicians, you know, view or a lot of voters view politicians as inherently corrupt. And I think that, you know, banning stock trading is one of those issues that could unite both ends of the kind of progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic caucus, but could also bring in a lot of Republicans as well. And regarding just to follow up on that, so the House priorities then to your point are still going to be TBD. How do we feel like that's going to be communicated in the next two months? Are we just basically still going to wait for the new Congress to be sat or Or do you think they're going to start to get ahead of things?

7:59And I understand we don't have a lot of legislation left this year. It's been a short year to begin with. We don't. I mean, they have to fund the government at the end of the year. I think my big question is, what does Democrats first bill H.R. 1? What is that going to look like in the House? I think it's clear that, again, Democratic leadership wants that to be focused on affordability issues. And they understand that voters have been frustrated with both parties for a very long time. You know, even if Republican the Republican Party's approval rating is a bit lower than Democrats approval rating, but it is low across the board.

8:36And I think voters want change now, of course, in a divided government, it's going to be hard to enact sweeping change. But there are certainly, I think, issues where you could see some movement. Aaron, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate it. Aaron Covey, she's the editor covering the House of Representatives for the Cook Political Reports, getting a lay of the land on kind of the changes we're seeing down there in D.C. from yesterday's midterms. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. If you invest, lead a business or allocate capital, one sided views aren't enough.

9:17Join me, Brad Rogoff, the Global Head of Research at Barclays, on the Flipside podcast. Each month, I go head-to-head with one of our expert analysts on my global team to debate the economic and market issues that matter most. From inflation and AI to equity and credit trends, each debate helps you see what headlines might miss. Find the Flipside wherever you get your podcasts. With Jatchy BT, you can do more than get answers. You can get things done. When you're running a business and looking to expand, you need a clear view of the landscape before making any decisions. ChatGPT can help you prepare.

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10:23You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. Tomorrow's going to be a big day, too. We're going to change in non-farm payrolls. The consensus is$65 ,000. That's up from last period. 29 ,000. I think the whisper number for this period is 75 ,000. So we'll see. Let's check in with Christopher Hodge. He follows this stuff, chief U.S. economist for Texas. Chris, thanks so much for joining us here in studio. How's the job market from your perspective?

11:00The job market is stable, but I don't think it's as solid as the headline data would tell you. Now, we have jobs coming in tomorrow, a little bit below consensus at about 55 ,000. Slight uptick in the unemployment rate, but something that still rounds to 4.2. But given the changes that we've seen in immigration, population estimates, seasonality, I think the better indicator of the clearing demand for labor is wage growth. Now, wage growth has been steadily coming down, and we expect more of the same. And I is this is not a labor market that is providing much of an inflationary impulse at all.

11:45So at about 8.45 tomorrow, shortly after the print, I think the focus will turn very much squarely to next Tuesday's inflation print. I mean, I agree. I think there's no wage spiral debate anywhere near that table for the Fed. But when I look at sort of the Atlanta Fed wage tracker, it does show that some of the guys that are changing, job switchers, have been firming up a little bit. But I mean, how much smaller is that story than it was during sort of the post-COVID era where that was really the driver of concern? Yeah, that gap between switchers and stayers is notable, but the denominator matters, too.

12:21How many are switching and how many are staying? And we're still of the feeling that businesses are very hesitant to part with any workers. We'll get initial claims very soon. But they're also very hesitant to add to payrolls very aggressively as well. So that low level of churn in the labor market, I think, is ultimately disinflationary over time. And I think that's going to improve out over the next few quarters. Another thing I think a lot of folks will be looking at tomorrow is wage growth. And I guess the look like, I mean, it's looking for maybe 2.9 % average hourly earnings on a year-over-year basis.

13:002.9%, that's not 3%. And it's not the level of inflation. It's below inflation. So we got a problem out there for the folks that really depend upon their wages to fund everything. I mean, that's it. That's an issue, right? Absolutely. And this plays into the K-shaped economy story. I think that's a little bit overblown, but it's certainly a thing. And there's a reason why we had such a big sweep in the elections. It's because, you know, headline numbers for growth and for unemployment all look OK, but consumers aren't feeling the optimism. And part of that story is because they don't feel confident in finding a new, better, higher paying job.

13:40So, Paul, we have a game over on the Markets Live team. We're on part of it, Bloomberg here, where we guess the initial claims every week. And the scary thing is we're getting it right quite often because the actual range now is like 10 ,000. I mean, is this the gig economy? Like how has structurally things changed that made claims no longer a predictor of much? Yeah, I think it's a bunch of things that come into play here. But these are generally pretty accurate data. I just think this is with so many structural shifts that could potentially be underway with adoption of AI. You know, for example, I think businesses are very hesitant to part with any employees.

14:18Now, they're also hesitant to add to any workers as well. But, you know, I think I think ultimately this is this is an economy that has seen increased productivity over the past few years. and businesses are doing more with fewer workers, but also makes the workers bet that they have even more important to them. All right. So that's the labor side of the equation. The Fed also focusing on inflation here. We've got energy prices whipping around depending upon the tweet of the day here. What's the underlying inflation out there in the economy, do you think? Yeah. So I think this is pretty interesting.

14:56I think if you take it on a component by component basis, we remain cautiously optimistic. Obviously, the energy intensive parts of inflation are going to be sensitive to oil. But we do think that tariff impacts have largely passed through. We think the low levels of household formation and the low levels of immigration decreases demand for housing and for rents. And the largest part of the basket is the non-service or the the core services excluding housing and that's as we've talked as we've spoken about here that's largely a function of uh the increase in the cost of hiring a worker now if you include productivity numbers that are fairly high that looks like it's something that's consistent with about two percent inflation we're not there but i think we're going to get closer in the next few quarters so what do you think is more important for that fed discussion is it really focusing on super core or is it thinking more about this lag and shelter which drives everyone nuts because i think it's like a year and a half now where we finally see some of the stuff we see on Zillow we experience in our lives finally hitting the real data yep those real-time measures are certainly important the super core I think to most Fed officials is still something that's crucial and that's indicative of future inflation Warsh hasn't really given much of an indication about what components he wants.

16:21He said it is a hard target of 2.0 for PCE. But yeah, I mean, Warsh looks at a wide variety of things. We're looking at the breadth of inflation, financial conditions, but he hasn't given much of a read about what specific components he's watching. His Jackson Hole speech was really focused on that breadth, which is why the last report was probably more alarming. But then again, he never follows through with any sort of confirmation. I saw what I was looking for. I didn't see anything. And he doesn't talk about, is it year over year? Is it three-month annualized? Is it six-month annualized? There's not a lot of specificity in there.

16:56Right. We lean into Waller more for that kind of stuff. Yeah. Or Williams as well. Former Fed geek over there. So that's why we do it. I chill my Tom Keen here, too. Exactly. How's the U.S. consumer doing out there? U.S. consumer has held up very well in the face of higher oil prices, in the face of real wage growth that's been flat to maybe below zero. And I think that's largely a function of a fiscal stimulus from the one big beautiful bill that really boosted a lot of spending. That K-shaped is certainly part of it as well. Consumers overall have balance sheets that have been buttressed by home prices that have continued to go up, equity prices that have continued to go up again.

17:42but we see this dispersion in discretionary spending amongst higher income Americans versus the opposite. Look, I think the K economy is real, but it also means that we need almost two Fed rates to address it, and that's not happening. I think, funny enough, it's interesting lately in the markets we've seen home builders getting quite the bid because of relief in rates, but overall the actual data from the housing market's gotten worse and worse. Do you think we see any kind of bottoming the housing data? Far be it for me to make a call on housing, but I will say that the affordability issue is when you slow down immigration, that increases the cost of building a home.

18:21When you have tariffs on Canadian lumber and steel, that increases the cost of building a home. And when you have mortgages that are 7.5 % or so, that also hurts. So it's really difficult to see a significant an increase in demand when you have those headwinds to affordability. Chris, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate it. Christopher Hodge, he's the chief U.S. economist for Natixis. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

19:00You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Let's talk about the tech side of the trade here. Brad Warden, Senior Portfolio Manager, Science and Tech Funds. It says it all for NoMure. Brad, what is the AI trade now from your perspective? How do you guys think about the AI trade now? It seems to be a fluid situation, different views. How do I play it? How are you guys looking at it? Right. I think from our perspective, obviously, lots of noise the last 24 hours or so with with what's happened in the elections.

19:42But at the end of the day, I think if if you aggravate some of the constraints we have out there, I think the long term trajectory of where we're going with this. This trade is unchanged. And I think if you look at some of the data that we've gotten recently, right, and some of the disclosures that we got from Anthropics S1 and some of those things, the business models that are coming on the back of AI are are pretty phenomenal. And so we've been worried. Right. There's been a massive skepticism in the market that, hey, this thing was getting too big, which you can argue they're going to be probably pockets of that.

20:13But I think in the long run, what we were questioning is, is there monetization? Right. And we're starting to see some of those things. And if you look out a little further, right, what we try to do is really look out beyond not just what's right here in your face. Right. And So the last quarter, the last few months have really brought us a lot of that information and data. But as you look out, you look at what's happened with the demand for compute, all of the different pieces of that. It has not changed. And I don't think it's going to change. So unfortunately, I think some of this constraint is actually going to make things tighter and make prices go up.

20:46So we look at this number, Paul, like it's three, four trillion dollars by 2030 for CapEx. The number grows every quarter. Right. And that's just accounting for what we see on the S &P kind of names, not the global picture. Right. How much of that now on the ground is actually held up or impaired? It's very small, right? And I think this is where I feel like the market's getting the narrative wrong. We are kind of putting the cart before the horse almost and trying to say, well, it's going to all be held up. But what are you actually seeing on the physical side of execution here? Yeah, I mean, I think it's a great question and a great point, because if you look at what's happening on the ground, like even in Texas, right, there's certain pieces of that process, right?

21:22It's a long process. And I spent some time with a data center executive last night just talking about what are they seeing as a result of this? What's really percolating in that? And the point is, is it not a whole lot? Now, you can stall some of these things out, right? And I think that's the important part. But what I think also needs to have happen is that these data centers need to be engaging with their communities, right? And these politicians need wins, right? So they campaign on this. We're going to shut down data centers, all this stuff. but at the same time, they want the economics that that brings.

21:54And so there's a trade-off between that. And so I think it's just finding from a real rational perspective is bringing those parties together to figure out where it lands. But ultimately in the long run, whether the data centers end up in Texas or Georgia, where it might become more challenging, there are a lot of different places where they can go. And I think they will if they have to. So I'm looking at your Nomura Transformational Technologies ETF. Really core seems to be semiconductors. Memory, that seems to be the core. So that's kind of, to me, infrastructure. Is that still the play from your perspective?

22:28You know what? The infrastructure, the way we look at it and from that perspective is, yes, the core infrastructure piece of it is going to continue. And that's going to be a multi-year cycle. I think part of what we're looking at now is sort to that next phase, right? I mentioned the monetization. So you've seen the hyperscalers bounce a little bit over the last, you know, 24, 48 hours, just as a result of this saying, okay, maybe they're going to be a little more constrained on their CapEx. But I do think that as we see that monetization, that's the option. That's the go forward is to see that piece of it.

23:02But I do think the skepticism now is really kind of overwhelming from a valuation perspective. As you look at the economics of these businesses, that's healthy as we've all lived through some of these bubbles. But I think that's maybe extreme at this point. What's the difference between Kansas City, Kansas and Kansas City, Missouri? Is there one? There's, you know, the state line runs right there. So you cross over all day, every day. So the one look down upon the other, we're better than the other. You know, it's there's a long history of the border wars, right? If you go back. And so there is some history there.

23:37But by and large, I think we feel like Kansas Cityans more than just, you know, Kansans versus Missouri. Now, if you ask anybody, now I didn't go to KU or Mizzou. But if you ask those guys, there's a massive difference on that state line. That's one thing. I kind of understand the Dallas-Fort Worth. I kind of understand the Minneapolis-St. Paul difference. I do not understand the Kansas. That's a whole different ballgame. Well, they moved the team, too. Exactly. Brad Warden, thanks so much for joining us Brad Warden, Senior Portfolio Manager, Science and Tech Funds for Noam. You're based in Kansas City.

24:09Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. With ChatGPT, you can do more than get answers. You can get things done. When you're running a business and looking to expand, you need a clear view of the landscape before making any decisions. ChatGPT can help you prepare. Connect your Google Drive, point to relevant files and reports, and ask Chat to research competitors, industry forecasts, and market signals. It can turn the findings into a strategic deck in your team's template that you can review before presenting to your leadership team. Growing a business is ambitious, and ChatGPT can help you do it with confidence.

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25:27You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube. Let's check in with how these markets may react to a world where maybe the Democrats have a little bit more power in Washington, D.C., how that might impact policies across the board. Sarah Hunt joins us here, partner and chief market strategist for Alpine Saxon Woods. I like your notes here. Well, that escalated quickly. So yesterday was certainly a day for politics. Did it change kind of how you're thinking about these markets, Sarah, or maybe the discussion you're having with your clients these days?

26:11Well, I think it was clear that there was a reaction to it. I mean, there's a lot of different reactions going on. Right. So you can't pinpoint one thing and say this is the reason that you had you saw such a blue tsunami. But I would definitely say that in places where data centers and discussions about citing things and what's going on with pricing and electricity and everything else were very important. And you could see that yesterday in the reaction, because what got hit that all the infrastructure stocks got hit, but the hyperscalers actually looked better. And that's telling you, we think that there is going to be a slowdown because of this election in some of the data build out.

26:43Now, I could have argued that that was coming anyway, because a lot of that couldn't have been cited at the timing where people were talking about building it. But it doesn't matter. This is a concrete sort of way of looking at things. And I think that beyond other sector rotations in the market, which will also happen, this is something that that looked pretty apparent from an investor standpoint yesterday. So, I mean, I get it. October was really about this as well. Caterpillar was up 60, 70 percent at one point this year. Now it's flat. And, you know, use that as the bellwether for the kind of fixing shovels.

27:14Is it overdone? I mean, the quality now at Staples are expensive. Health care has been on a multi-month rally at outperformance. It seems like some of these can become funders and we get a relief rally. But to your point, what's the catalyst and what do we have to hear basically to make everyone pile back into AI, Mamie? Well, I think it's interesting because if you get a if you get more of a steady spend and you don't have to keep escalating bigger every year on bigger and bigger numbers, and it looks like there's more there's a growth path that is more sustainable from a funding standpoint, because a lot of these questions were coming election or not on the funding question all by itself.

27:45So it's not as if this is the only thing that tells you that there was going to be a slowdown. And you could see that there was tension building there. So I think that there is a question now of how does this look going forward? And is this something that we can now call more sustainable? I think the bigger problem for the market overall is that a lot of 2027 earnings estimates were built in on some of the building that we could have argued wasn't going to happen anyway. So what does this do to 2027 earnings estimates? We already knew they weren't going to be as good as 2026 in terms of growth, but there was a lot of growth built in.

28:15So how that tension plays out is going to be important going forward. So how do we characterize the AI trade today? Because it has been, to varying degrees, the driving force for the stock market, for this economy. How do we think about it here? Because, I mean, we had a lot of anti-data center stuff yesterday in the elections. I think we think about this more as a moderation than a complete we're not going to do this anymore. I think it's really more about the pace was getting so fast and it was getting to the point where prices and also in components and everything else that we're adding to the inflation picture on the technology side.

28:53I think this is really going to be, again, about what is the cadence for spending now? Do we think that it's more likely to be funded without pressure? And if that's the case, then maybe we can get to a point where we say, OK, this now this part of the cycle looks a little bit more predictable. I think that's really the question. I don't think it's a repudiation of the technology in and of itself, but you've also started to see layoffs that people are blaming on AI. And that was a big concern prior to the build-out as being the only answer. So there are tensions in a brand new technology, and there are tensions in how that's going to go forward.

29:24I think it's going forward. I don't think that that's a question. It's really going to be about timing, and it's going to be about how that money gets spent and where. So Sarah, can we say that a lot of the comfort people took throughout the summer post-Ukraine was dispersion correlations, basically holding the index in while various sectors would lead and others would lag. We got about 70 % now of the SPX above their 50-day moving average. Obviously, that's not the AI side. That's the other side. But can we really say now that there isn't really more of a macro pulse? Because now we're banking on better growth.

29:54We're banking on value and cyclical is getting kind of the earnings breadth from an economy that's not like AI driven. That's not secular. That's now more cyclical. Well, and I think that, okay, so I would agree with that. And I would also say that what happens with energy prices is important in this component part, right? Because that is a place where higher energy prices not only have an inflationary aspect, but they have a margin degradation aspect. And people don't want to see that. So if you start to see, I don't know that this move in crude right now is illustrative of what is actually going to happen or just a change of, hey, we're going to have a different kind of backdrop and therefore maybe we can get a solution to this crisis.

30:29I don't think this solves the Ukraine in Russia crisis at all. I think you still have problems with product prices. I think you still have issues with refining. But if you can get prices to come down somewhat and bring some of that inflation down, then the earnings of the rest of the S &P 500 that are not tied to the A-out build-out are going to look a little bit more robust. And I think that that's where the tension into 2027 is going to come, is how those consensus earnings shake out. Bloomberg News, you know, just reporting kind of what we're seeing in the markets yesterday and then today in the futures market, talking about a rotation maybe into, And again, we have the NASDAQ futures down 1%, and then Dow futures up 0.6%, kind of mirroring what we saw yesterday.

31:07Is that a short-term trade, just some knee-jerk reflex to what we saw yesterday? Is there something maybe more? I think it's an unwind of some of the absolute hyperbolic earnings that were going on in the component space. I think it's an unwind of some of the concern for the hyperscalers themselves that they were going to be overtaxing their own cash flow and unable to borrow enough to do that. I think that there are going to be players in here that are going to have more challenge funding. And I think, again, that was happening before the election. And I think that's where you start to see some of the rotation.

31:39We were thinking about the rotation anyway, and we were doing some of that ourselves. We are definitely cash flow and balance sheet people. So for us, we were looking for, we were going back to more fundamentals, which I think you could argue this market may now be on a trajectory to do so, because people are going to be looking less at an ever increasing spend and more at what are the realities on the ground on the fundamentals. So for us, this is a better, this is a good environment for us. It's a good environment for companies that have very good cash flow, very strong balance sheets. And I think that that's, you were starting to see that tension before the election.

32:09This just exacerbated it. So Sarah, let's put like energy aside, because I guess it is a variable that is not really understandable. We look at the Fed, we think about tomorrow's jobs reports. We think about sort of that side of the mandate. Is there any chance as we reaccelerate potentially from maybe just better breadth of growth that they have to rekind of, assess whether this is just removing the Powell safety cuts or this is a longer term cycle. I mean, we know ADP was good this week. Joltz is looking better. We obviously had ISM services showing the subbreeding employment. Some of this labor market stuff is actually firming quite notably.

32:41Where are you thinking with the labor market ahead? Well, I think that, you know, we almost see baked into a cake hike in December. There's questions about whether or not there's going to be a hike in March. It's hard to look at those projections just because they've been wrong on the out months so much over the last couple of years. The expectation of what was going to happen with rates. When it's very close, it has been pretty accurate. When it's not very close, it's been very inaccurate. So I think that we'll see how that goes with the labor market. We'll see where we get to. Things underneath the surface have been, in many cases, pretty good.

33:09But you're also starting to see, like I said, that tension on layoffs and some of the discussions about what happens as you start to push AI. I mean, it's just looking up at the headlines on Apple is asking to take some of the AI usage down because they want to save money. Where does that tension go. And it has been a low hire, low fire environment that hasn't really changed. We'll see where that goes. It doesn't look inflationary right now on the jobs front. If that gets to the point, the Fed may have to act even further. Sarah, thank you so much for joining us once again. Sarah Hunt, she's a partner, chief market strategist at Alpine Saxon Woods on these markets here.

33:42This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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From the publisher

The latest in finance, economics and investment.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney
Thursday, November 5th, 2026

Featuring:

1) Erin Covey, Editor: US House with Cook Political Report, talks about Republican infighting post-Midterms and what the Democratic Congress strategy will be the next two years.

2) Christopher Hodge, Chief US Economist with Natixis, previews tomorrow's jobs report and why the near-term trajectory for economic policies won't change much post-election.

3) Brad Warden, Senior Portfolio Manager of Science and Tech Funds at Nomura, talks AI cycle rotations, where we are in the AI buildout, and where it could diverge post-Midterms.

4) Sarah Hunt, Chief Market Strategist at Alpine Saxon Woods, talks why the Blue Tsunami is proving good for many risk assets.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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