Second Half Economic Outlook

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1:25This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Joining us here in studio right now is a real treat. James Egelhoff, Chief U.S. Economist, BNP Paribas. The BNP Paribas offices in Paris. Awesome. Been there many times. James, thanks so much for joining us here. Talk to us about what you're seeing in this U.S. economy right now. It seems pretty darn solid. Look, we've been optimistic on the U.S. all year. I think the economy is doing really well and it's staged to keep doing well.

2:05We think it's benefiting from stimulative monetary policy, stimulative fiscal policy, stimulative wealth effects from the equity rally, and stimulative effects on investment demand from AI. We think that that's poised to continue. We think the Fed's rate hike last week was really good news. It shows that the Fed is embracing this optimistic narrative. Warsh used the word optimism in his press conference. And we're seeing that the Fed is prepared, is willing and able to use its tools to keep the expansion healthy and balanced. And I do get your notes that you send out to clients. So I saw last week after the Fed's decision that you were sticking with an expected another hike in December and January.

2:41But this week we get more than a half dozen Fed speakers. We did hear from Austin Goolsbee earlier this morning. It's saying the road to 2 % inflation may not be painless. So you were talking about how you might potentially add a hike for that October meeting, depending on what you hear throughout this week. What did you view with Goldby's comments this morning? And what else are you watching for from these Fed speakers this week? Look, we agree that the road might not be painless. And we think ultimately the risks to our Fed path, we have the hike we just had. We have two more. We have one in December, one in January.

3:10We think the risks are to a more concerted, a longer and a stronger tightening cycle. Just because the growth impulse in the economy is so strong, because inflation has gotten a little bit sticky. and because it's important to build credibility. So we see those features of the economy as meaning that it's going to be a bit harder to fight inflation. Maybe the Fed had thought the past few years and that it might think now. So there's a risk they have to do a bit more. So on the underlying inflation, I mean, we've got WTAC crude oil, Adderneur, 100 bucks a barrel. That's not good for inflation. John Tucker's paying$4.50 a gallon at the Wawa, Route 36 in Jersey.

3:45Talks about underlying inflation. What are you seeing out there? How do you feel about it? Look, and it's worse if you're a truck driver. You can pay$6.57 for diesel. And we're starting to talk about being over$200 a gallon. So one of the risks to the economy that we see is that we can get continued rises in energy prices. Our view has been that the economy is going to be resilient to that, so long as we don't get back to a price in inflation-adjusted level like we got in 2008, which would be something well over$200. And look, we could get there. If things get worse, we're not there now. So we think we're in good shape now.

4:15But that's a risk to monitor. We think ultimately inflation in the U.S. is driven by momentum. And so we've had now over five years of high inflation, including the big surge in inflation during the pandemic reopening. We think it's just it's just it's accumulated inertia. In order to fight that inertia, the Fed might just have to push push harder into it. The Fed's been hoping hoping that inflation would just peter out by itself without the need for having to push back on the labor market. And that might not work. The Fed's coming to terms with that. What do you think is the biggest risk to your call?

4:47Look, we think that if you're an economist and you're worried about the risk, you're mostly worried about some kind of imbalance. And for us, for most of you, the risk was that the Fed wouldn't act. And the Fed would let the economy overheat. We get the late unemployment rate to fall too much. And then the Fed would have to sort of like you jump like it hit by cattle prod and respond excessively. And when you start seeing these big amplifying moves, that's when you worry about something breaking, having a recession. The fact that we're seeing the Fed respond more timely now and showing that they're on the path to stabilizing the economy reduces that risk.

5:18We're worried about the war. We also think that AI is primarily driven by optimism right now. That's fine. That's a normal part of this phase of the technology cycle. But if something happens that causes people to somehow lose some of that optimism about the commercialization of AI, that could be a problem too. But right now, we think these risks are manageable. And the consumer seems really strong, resilient. How do you view the consumer here? We know there's this K-shaped economy, but it just seems like the upper end of the K is kind of driving the bus here at the moment. There's a lot of debate about how K-shaped the economy really is or whether it's any more K-shaped than it always has been.

5:56There is wealth and income inequality in this country, but that's not new. We think the wealth gains that are coming from the stock market do accrue to more affluent people. but that it seems to be working through to the rest of the economy. So, so long as people have a job, they're comfortable that their job's going to be stable, and the market remains resilient, we think the consumer will remain resilient as well. When you're viewing the direction for, especially how much the AI prospects are contributing to GDP, if a lot of those companies are obviously tapping the debt markets to spend more, if they're pulling back on that potentially, depending on where the rate cycle is for hiking, How does that then potentially slow economic growth?

6:36So first of all, I talked to quite a few clients in the data center and the hyperscaler space, like we're a big institution, and I'm not hearing that. So what I'm hearing is that people are very optimistic on the demand for compute, on the commercial demand for AI applications. And yes, rates are going up. They see that. They've been trying to get ahead of that the past few months with supply, with issuance, but that that's not going to derail their plans. So ultimately, we think that the AI cycle is robust to this. that may be a reason the Fed has to do more, because if the Fed's objective actually is to sort of take a little bit of the punch bowl away, sort of the old Louis McKesney Martin quote, that they may have to take a little bit more of the punch bowl away to get people to chill out a little bit.

7:15So that's more the risk is that there's not enough response and the Fed has to do more. The 10-year Treasury yield, 4.95%, 5%. Is that kind of the new normal? And is that okay? So our view for a while has been that we are going into a period of prolonged high growth. And that means that the neutral rate, the rate that the Fed has to maintain on average over time, is going to be higher. And that means that we're going to be in a higher rate environment. Another way of putting it is if you want 90s type growth, you might have to have 90s type rates. And some of that is getting priced in. I think some of my buy side clients are starting to think about where should the 10 year, where should the 30 year be in a world where growth is going to be really high.

7:53Right. So look, there's there's some room for a rally here, here and there. We think the Fed is showing some credibility. We might have some stabilization in the war at some point. Hopefully those things would be good for the tenure. But ultimately, we don't think going back to a much lower level of race. We think we're in a high growth environment. James, an undergraduate degree, Cornell, computer science. Then you go get the MBA, Chicago. Dude, that is a lot of math over that period of time. I mean, you like math, I guess. I do like math, but I find in this job, I'm mostly reading Truth Social at times.

8:22It isn't always helpful, but I do aspire to it being useful. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. If you invest or lead a business, one-sided views aren't enough. Join me, Brad Rogoff, and my team at Barclays Research as we debate what's driving markets on the Flipside podcast. Find the flip side wherever you get your podcasts.

9:15your team's template that you can review before presenting to your leadership team. Growing a business is ambitious, and ChatGPT can help you do it with confidence. Get started at chatgpt.com.

9:32You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. Let's talk the bond market. Let's talk credit. And, you know, the story of 2026, one of the main themes has been all the new issuance from the AI players. A lot of tech companies who you don't normally see in the bond market because you have such tons of cash on their balance sheet, lots of free cash flow. They didn't need the bond market. Now they do for all this AI capex. What's that mean for the investment grade bond market for that return to Amanda Lynam?

10:10She's a chief credit strategist at a little shop called Goldman Sachs. Amanda, how do you guys think about all the AI issuance that has come into the market and that is expected to come into the market over the next, I don't know, 18 months or so? Good morning. Thank you for having me. So I think there are a couple of ways to think about this, Paul. One is to just frame the scale and scope. And you rightly point to the group of hyperscalers that have been in focus for the markets. But actually, our work suggests that as sizable as those CapEx needs are from the hyperscalers, they represent just 40 percent of the AI related issuance that's coming through the global corporate credit markets.

10:48So given that swift acceleration, which actually started in 2025, it's intensified through 2026. We've counted nearly 600 billion of global AI related debt issuance so far this year. And we think it's poised to accelerate even further in 2027. What that means is that the diversification value of sectors outside of that theme, so banks, health care, energy, food and beverage, it's all the more important for investors. And so that's really, I think, a key driver of the increased focus on sector diversification from here. Talk to us more about the bifurcation between AI related spreads in the rest of the market and how you view kind of the trajectory of this in the midst of the Fed beginning to hike rates again.

11:32Sure. Thank you, Jess. It's a great question. I think the bifurcation has persisted. And as you noted, it's really between AI and the broader rest of the market. I think what it has driven, in our view, is almost a shift in the way that we think investors should think about quality and being defensive in the credit market. And that's true in both IG and high yield. And so one of the views that we have is to selectively move down in credit quality. In IG, we're overweight triple Bs against the higher rated cohorts of the market. and in high yield, for example, in the US, we're overweight single Bs versus double Bs.

12:07It's really driven by two factors and it speaks to this bifurcation. While the reflex historically to be more defensive or move up in quality was to move up in ratings, if you do that in this environment, what you do is you subject yourself to two more pronounced headwinds. The first is the supply angle that we mentioned and the second is a duration headwind. On the supply angle, the higher end of the IG and high yield rating cohorts have generated a disproportionately large share of supply relative to prior years. And again, that's driven largely by the AI theme, even in high yield. And then two, by moving up in ratings and moving into tighter spread bonds, what you do is you lose that spread cushion to buffer total returns from higher rates.

12:51And so for that reason, we actually like being selectively down in credit quality, of course, very mindful of kind of that left tail of the credit market that seems to persistently lag. But growth is good enough in our view. Credit fundamentals are solid. And really, it just fits with our view that if you're allocating to credit, you should be doing that for yield and income, not for a potential total return boost from tighter spreads or lower rates. Amanda, you have some of the best tech research analysts on Global Wall Street there at Goldman Sachs. What are they telling you about, I guess, the need for more CapEx?

13:25How long does this cycle last? How long is your investment grade mark? You're going to be asked to kind of fund a lot of this stuff. We sure do have the best equity research tech analyst. So our debt issuance forecast for 2027 and even through the outer years, they're directly informed in large part by the CapEx estimates of our equity team. And then we assume a share of that CapEx spend that will be debt financed. As you know, Paul, this is a multi-year trend. And this is something that it's not going to be kind of a one and done wave of issuance. We expect this to be a present theme in the corporate credit markets through 2030, even 2031, based on the CapEx trajectory that we see.

14:04I think the key angle, though, is that over time, as that market issuance pattern extends, we think that other markets, in particular other financing channels, will need to play a larger role in financing some of this need, specifically the private credit markets, private infrastructure, private real estate, where there's a collective four and a half trillion of dry powder across all private market strategies, even including private equity. We see a greater role for those markets to step in. That's not to say that there's not additional runway in the traditional financing corporate bond markets.

14:39There for sure is at least 500 billion by our estimates in USIG alone. But just given the scale and scope of this need, we believe a wide range of financing channels will need to participate across structures, markets and even currencies. Amanda, any particular red flags you're beginning to see within the AI related debt issuance? Well, I just think that it's not necessarily a red flag, but it's a it's a recognition of what is different this time versus prior periods of active releveraging. And if I had to put it very simply, the credit market works best in funding periods of active releveraging when the need is quantifiable, when there's an end in sight, and ideally when there's a period of debt reduction on the back of any debt issuance.

15:23For a variety of reasons, this multi-year period of AI-related debt issuance, where CapEx estimates have been moving higher, by the way, it's just a different phenomenon than what the corporate credit market is used to. That's why you see in some cases that we expect larger markets in the private financing channels, for example, to play a more meaningful role as it extends. So I think it's just it's important to realize that typically when the corporate credit market sees these large jumbo debt deals, it's for, for example, a debt funded M &A transaction. That's kind of the end of the issuance.

15:59And then the corporate borrower is focused on debt reduction following that. This is just a very different backdrop. And so I think it's important to acknowledge that. Amanda, one of the questions I have is it feels like maybe this AI spending level, this is the new normal. I'm not sure once you build whatever you need to build, whether it's a data center or whatever, does it go back to pre-AI CapEx levels? I'm not so sure. Well, I think it's hard to know, and it's probably out of my wheelhouse. I'll defer to the tech experts on that one. But I think the key question for corporate credit investors is, is there financing runway to accommodate this spend?

16:38And I certainly think that from the corporate credit investor side, there's a lot of demand for this paper. Tech is actually still a pretty small share of the overall corporate credit market, despite the issuance numbers that I mentioned at the start, which is pretty astounding. And as we move forward, I think investors will pick their spots in terms of where they might want to participate more fully. But in general, the message from our side is that we are not concerned about access to capital for the AI theme from a corporate credit side. We just expect more nuanced conversations about where exactly to take this risk and at what price as the multi-year issuance cycle moves on from the investor perspective.

17:15Amanda, thank you so much. Appreciate it. As always, Amanda Linham, Chief Credit Strategist at Goldman Sachs.

17:24you're listening to the bloomberg surveillance podcast catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m eastern listen on apple carplay and android auto with the bloomberg business app or watch us live on youtube uh let's check in with our next guest nancy lazar chief global economist at peiper sandler uh nancy thanks so much for joining us here i love and i think our listeners would love to get your thoughts on what we heard from the federal reserve last week the The hike started, came in. We had a 25 basis point hike as the market was anticipating. What else did you take away from the Fed meeting?

17:57Well, it's to listen seriously to what Chair Warsh says. He said one of the key indicators, economic indicators he's watching are weekly unemployment claims. It's a hard statistic, great historical relationship with the labor market. And claims are down 10 percent over on a year over year basis, which means the labor market is healing really quickly. Layoffs are down. And that also implies employment is indeed going up. So listen to what he says and watch what he's watching, which is the labor market along with inflation. And there's maybe more truth than fiction to the relatively strong payroll employment report we had for the month of month of August.

18:37So claims, I think, were a mirror into what he was thinking, which is the economy is on solid footing. Labor market is healing and inflation is sticky. He has a diffusion index. We have our inflation diffusion index. It tells you there's too many prices that are increasing 0.3 percent or more. And that just highlights that we are now seeing sticky inflation. And then third, and then I'll stop, is that does the strength in the labor market then imply that, say, in 2027, we could actually see even a further broadening out of inflation into wage inflation? And we think that's going to become more of a story indeed as we see this stronger labor market then leading to stronger wage inflation in 2027.

19:21Hey, Nancy, we didn't hear too much from Kevin Warsh about the Fed's balance sheet. What are you watching there? Well, we watch the balance sheet closely. It's still very, very elevated. We also watch money supply. He is a monetarist. He made that clear in the monetary policy report. He made that clear at Jackson Hole. And we watch the banking system. And we watch bank lending. Bottom line is there's a lot of liquidity in the economy. And that helps explain, one, why economic activity is solid and getting stronger. And two, why inflation is indeed sticky. So the balance sheet, although it's off its peak, is still very elevated.

19:58It provides a lot of liquidity to Wall Street. Therefore, it provides a lot of liquidity for financial markets and is a contributor to the strength in the economy. More simply, though, watching money supply and to growth, which is what classically monetarists, me included, have watched. It's growing seven percent right now and seven percent money supply growth, seven percent bank loan growth. Very strong government spending right now led by defense. That all suggests nominal activity is going to stay strong, which is very, very supportive of corporate revenue, corporate revenue growth. So balance sheet, money, bank loans, government spending all point to a lot of liquidity helping to support the economy and cushion it, quite frankly, from this backup in interest rates for now.

20:43Hey, Nancy, I guess I should not be, but I continue to be, I guess, pleasantly surprised by the resilience of the U.S. consumer here. How do you view the U.S. consumer who is facing inflation issues, particularly at the gas pump and some other places? But boy, the U.S. consumers more than hanging in there. Well, well said. Totally, totally agree. Nominal consumer spending, which is what drives revenue for all these big retailers, are growing right now 6 percent. That's echoed, say, by an American Express whose revenues are actually up eight and Visa whose revenues are up 12. So my point is I love to look at multiple different indicators to gauge what's going on in the economy.

21:25In this case, looking at consumer oriented companies. Second, it's really the high to middle income consumers that's driving consumer spending. Consumer confidence is kind of stuck. Don't don't use you of Mish if you use Conference Board or our own daily survey. Consumer confidence is kind of sluggish. It's not collapsing, but it is sluggish. Whereas what you just suggested is indicated and I agree with is that the U.S. consumer has been resilient. What's the disconnect between spending and confidence? Well, it's everybody's treated equal. High, middle, low income consumers are treated equal in the consumer confidence numbers.

21:58It's a measure of people. Whereas nominal consumer spending is a dollar metric, right? And so the high, middle income consumers drive that particular indicator. I think that's what's surprising people. We saw that certainly also in the August retail sales data. And the middle income consumer is getting stronger here. Goods producing jobs, manufacturing jobs, construction jobs are high paying jobs. And wages in that sector are growing 4%. And income in that space for those consumers is also now hitting all-time highs, even adjusted for inflation. So consumer spending is resilient, one, because the high-end consumer has been driven by, supported by the stock market, which is supported by all this liquidity in the economy.

22:41And two, now the middle-end consumer is doing better because of the strength we're getting in these construction jobs, manufacturing jobs. And that was just echoed. Manufacturing is very strong. Breadth in manufacturing is broadening out. Jobs in manufacturing are picking up. Now joining construction jobs, supporting that middle income consumer. The low end consumer gets a lot of the press and my heart bleeds. I mean, they're in a terrible situation given gasoline prices and they are in a lot of these lower paying jobs. Gotcha. That needs to change because in politics, everyone's counted the same at the voting booth.

23:18But at the end of the day, consumer spending solid because of that middle income consumer now joining the high income consumer. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. With ChatGPT, you can do more than get answers. You can get things done. When you're running a business and looking to expand, you need a clear view of the landscape before making any decisions. ChatGPT can help you prepare. Connect your Google Drive, point to relevant files and reports, and ask Chat to research competitors, industry forecasts, and market signals. It can turn the findings into a strategic deck in your team's template that you can review before presenting to your leadership team.

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25:15You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. Stephanie Gild joins us here. She's the CIO Oh, of Robinhood. Stephanie, what are the folks on your platform, what are they buying and selling these days? So they, you know, in July, we saw them sort of net buying cool off, but since that kind of pullback in the markets, they've been back at it much more in the single stock base, for example, than the ETF space. And what I've also been noticing, and I think, you know, our stock price often can be correlated with, you know, crypto and Bitcoin, but that's not, you know, our full business at all.

26:00we have a pretty diversified business. But what we've been seeing customers do is definitely more back in the AI trade, just trading the differences between hyperscalers and picks and shovel stocks, which you're starting to see change a lot in the last week or so. And the other thing I noticed, too, is that I think for a long time this year, because crypto was not doing as well for a lot of the year, they were using prediction markets to trade the small changes in prices. So kind of saying like, where will the price be or will it be above a certain amount? And I think that's probably going to start changing now that you've seen a pop in crypto and perhaps breaking out a little.

26:40I'm curious with your clients, are they willing to let go of some of their AI high flyers? Do they want to take profits in those and go elsewhere? Or do they want to continue to hang on to that and add to that positioning? Like generally speaking, behaviorally, our customers don't have a problem taking profits. And I think you see it, whether they're hanging on to a piece and kind of trading around it, but you definitely see like Meta is one of the things that they've sold recently because that's actually had a pretty good run going back into something like an Oracle. And so we look across platform rather than individual positions, but they definitely are happy to take a profit and move on to something that's maybe looking cheaper.

27:18What are the most active stocks? right now it's Micron Sandus so the two best performers in the first half of the year for the S &P yeah I mean it's certainly also come back down since the socks peaked in June so they're a lot cheaper even though they're still obviously doing very well this year I guess when those PE drops slightly they're going back in and they're buying yeah and I wouldn't equate buying with activity like I think you know it could be that they were you know kind of deciding to trim it like those are the most actively but The most bought, for example, has been more NVIDIA and Oracle.

27:54And NVIDIA has underperformed those peers tremendously this year compared to how it performed in recent years. So that's interesting that they're going back and buying NVIDIA. You mentioned Bitcoin, but I, again, kind of didn't pay attention until this morning. We're at$85 ,000 on Bitcoin. Do the Robinhood folks, do they buy the momentum? I think you do start seeing like, you know, in crypto in general goes through these like seasonal things. And I think after you had that big pop, what was it, a couple of weeks ago, you are starting to see people pay attention. I personally have been watching it saying, you know, I want to see if it can actually break out of the kind of range that it's been in.

28:31And I think it did that. Yeah, it kind of feels like it. You know, like Friday and this weekend. So, yes, people certainly pay attention to that. Steph, you've got Robinhood Strategies, your digital advisors. Talk to us about that. What is that? It's definitely a different part of the platform. We kind of have a focus at the company on making sure we take care of our active traders, but then also understand that not as people kind of change in their lives and their careers, they need to get more time. And so we've created a set of portfolios that you can invest in that will do the investing for you.

29:05And we tried to innovate in a couple of ways. One is that we actually have single stocks in the portfolios versus a lot of other, you know, robos out there that just kind of buy a group of ETFs. We leave you messages about what's happening in your portfolio directly from me and my team. And then we actually our fees are capped. So if you're a gold member, you don't pay more than$250 a year for the service. How does someone, if they want to invest in one of those portfolios, the newer ones you're talking about, how do you go about doing that? Well, we recognize a couple of things. One is that we have a general philosophy that we think the markets have substantially changed kind of post-2022 when rates started going up.

29:48And as a result of that, we wanted to make sure we gave people the best opportunity to make money over time. and that means that we put you in single names in addition to ETFs. We have a couple of different things that we do. We ask them a couple of questions and we make sure they're in the right risk return profile. And then we have an investment process that's grounded in behavioral finance, which is very different, I'd say, than a lot of other places too. How do you decide on the single stocks? Well, so we start with a quantitative investment process that kind of keeps our emotion out of it because that's pretty easily to get caught up in that.

30:23And then we have an overlay from our team and we use artificial intelligence quite a bit to help support our investment research. So then is it more unique to that individual how you're picking those individual stocks and more broadly? It's kind of a mix. Like we want to obviously have scale for our investors. We have over three hundred fifty thousand customers and we have over two billion in assets. So, you know, but you can customize your account. You can restrict stocks. You can change the risk return profile of your portfolio directly. So there's a lot of ways we can we can make it customized and personalized for you.

31:03But we we do a lot of work behind the scenes. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app. TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

31:50the ums, fixes the typos, and the result sounds like you wrote it, four times faster than typing. So the email that used to take two minutes now takes 30 seconds. Whisperflow is free. Download it at whisperflow.ai. That's W-I-S-P-R flow dot A-I. With ChatGPT, you can do more than get answers. You can get things done. Whether you're leading a big project, planning an elaborate trip, or trying to balance work and life, ChatGPT can help. Give it a goal, plus things like files, notes, or project plans, develop a trip itinerary with daily updates, or create a prioritized schedule, so you can spend less energy sorting out the details and more on bringing your biggest ideas to life.

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