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Bloomberg Surveillance

16 Sep 2026 · 30m · 9 chapters

Episode artwork

The Fed, Rate Hikes, and AI

In short

Debate on whether the Fed’s rate hikes signal a lasting “higher rate regime” or a one-off move, and how that interacts with inflation, long-term real yields, AI-driven growth, and equity/semiconductor/real-asset positioning.

Guests

Stephen Major, Global Macro Advisor at Tradition; David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research; plus other Bloomberg Surveillance contributors including Alicia Levine (BNY) and Jay Goldberg (Seaport Research Partners).

Key claims

Major argues inflation pressures from AI/infrastructure are near-term, disinflation should return next year, term premium hasn’t risen, and 10-year yields could be nearer 4% than 6% in a year; he favors nominal Treasuries over TIPS despite ~3% real yields. Levine says the market is rotating as hikes pressure duration/multiples, but earnings can muddle through; AI is a major GDP driver. Goldberg calls semiconductors still cyclical but in a strong upswing; Nvidia may underperform due to size, high expectations, and being “sold out.” Rosenberg favors a “Waller camp” view: underlying inflation is cooling (oil spillovers, housing and labor disinflation), with nominal GDP decelerating.

Notable examples

10-year yields moving from below 4% to ~5% after ~150 bps of hikes; real 30-year inflation-adjusted yields back above 3%; comparisons to “Great Moderation” yields; West Ham relegation analogy for valuation risk; AI import intensity (chips from Korea/Taiwan) and guardrails debate (OpenAI/Anthropic cybersecurity threats).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

0:59

Market Trends and Rate Predictions

Discussion on the current state of interest rates and market trends.

“The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices.”
2:05

Inflation Insights and Future Expectations

Insights on inflation and its potential impact on future economic conditions.

“And now, of course, Global Macro Advisor at Tradition.”
4:30

Real Yields and Investment Strategies

Exploration of real yields and strategies for investing in current markets.

“So, Stephen, so given that background, I mean, is there a call here for if I want to ask you where the 10 years going to be a year from now, would you say lower than where we are here?”
7:20

Soccer Rivalries and Economic Analogy

Using soccer rivalries to illustrate economic concepts and team valuation.

“So you buy nominals because the real yield is high.”
9:38

Market Dynamics Amid Fed Decisions

Analysis of how Fed decisions affect market dynamics and investor strategies.

“More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.”
14:00

Market Reactions to Fed Rate Hikes

Discussion on the effects of potential Fed rate hikes on the market.

“A Fed hike today, maybe the beginning of maybe one or two or three hikes, does that end the bull market?”
21:26

The Semiconductor Business Landscape

Examining the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry and its growth.

“Jay Goldberg all of us have a stereotype of the ups and downs of the Sox index years ago.”
28:51

Debate on Inflation Trends

Discussion on differing views about inflation trends and their implications.

“And David, I want to set this up off what we heard from Dr.”
31:15

Analyzing Economic Indicators

Exploration of key economic indicators and their impact on inflation.

“that if they do raise rates today, it'll be the first time since July of 2023.”
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Transcript

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0:00If you invest, lead a business, or allocate capital, one-sided views aren't enough. Join me, Brad Rogoff, the Global Head of Research at Barclays, on the Flipside podcast. Each month, I go head-to-head with one of our expert analysts on my global team to debate the economic and market issues that matter most. From inflation and AI to equity and credit trends, each debate helps you see what headlines might miss. Find the Flipside wherever you get your podcasts. for big business ai opened up a world of promise but that world of promise turned into a world of pain cost spiraling data trapped security and governance risks multiplying and roi out of reach that's why enterprises turned to boomi to connect data apps and ai helping them operate securely efficiently and at scale boomi turns a world of ai pain into a world of ai gain as boomi says We got you.

0:56Head to Boomi.com. That's B-O-O-M-I dot com.

1:25The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.

1:49This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Stephen Major joins us now with all of his heritage on the Pacific Rim in London. And now, of course, Global Macro Advisor at Tradition. Stephen, you have called for a lower regime requirement. I'm going to go to Jan Hotsias at Goldman Sachs, who makes clear, yeah, you may get rate increase, but we're not going to get three, four or five rate increases. And that this is a not idiosyncratic, but one off move to a higher rate regime.

2:32The shocks will recede and we'll get back to Stephen Major lower rates. Discuss that. Yeah, it could be a one and done, Tom. So if you perhaps looked at the Fed chair's view of inflation, he would share what many people say about the near term inflationary impulse that comes from the AI and the infrastructure build out, all this kind of stuff. But his view would be that in the longer run, and this is going into next year, you start to get some of the disinflationary pressures coming through. Back in February of this year, before the war in this region started, that was on the 27th of February, the yield on 10-year treasuries was below 4 % and the market was implying three cuts.

3:22Here we are six, seven months later, we've got 5 % 10-year yields and three hikes. So one thing I would say is that you've had a six-rate hike move in the space of six, seven months. That's 150 basis points. That explains the entirety of that 10-year yield shift and a bit more, really. So I think that a lot of the narrative out there has got very bearish on bonds and it tends to talk about fiscal policy in the same breath as being bearish and about the supply of bonds and all of the inflation risk premium and what have you. I just don't really see it. The term premium hasn't gone up. People have been claiming that it has.

4:02It has not gone up. You can see it on the Bloomberg terminal. The curve has flattened because it's been pricing in the rate hikes. Inflation expectations are controlled. Spot inflation is a bit higher. So I could see one hike and then next year we could be back into the easing mode. It's the war in this region that has ruined the best laid plans. I mean, Paul, under the press conference today, it's like Howard Johnson's. There's 28 flavors. Exactly. Everybody's got an opinion. Which way is he going to go? So, Stephen, so given that background, I mean, is there a call here for if I want to ask you where the 10 years going to be a year from now, would you say lower than where we are here?

4:45I'd say nearer to four than six. OK. And so let's start. The starting point is five. So if we had a sportsman's bet on this, we could bet a coffee, a coffee each way. Yep. So if it's$4.99, I win. If it's$5.01, you win. We have plenty of coffee here at Bloomberg. Yeah. So earlier this year, when yields were 4%, John Farrow asked me what was more likely, the yield on treasuries going down towards 3 or West Ham United staying up in the premiership. So it was an impossible question because I didn't know how to answer it. In fact, here we are at five percent. Yeah. And West Ham are top of the championship.

5:34Just saying. There you go. Stephen, what are you what are you going to be listening for from Chairman Warshare? He's kind of in a tough situation. He's got a lot of pressures coming from different areas. What are you going to be looking for? Yeah. I'm tempted to give him a break in that he's still in his honeymoon phase. And frankly, it's been very difficult with the global geopolitical backdrop. What's happened is pretty unprecedented. So as I said, the best laid plans have been completely wrecked. Right. I think we have to give it time. And I think committing to a series of rate hikes is very unlikely here.

6:15Stephen Major, talk about the real yield. I mean, I'm looking at the 10-year real yield. It gets my attention. But to me, almost historic is the 30-year inflation-adjusted yield is really back to once-in-a-lifetime highs, way over 3%. Discuss the long-term real yield. Yeah, so really interesting. I had a couple of calls this morning on the same subject. 3 % real yields are basically 2 % higher than the Fed's indication of its neutral rate. So maybe we have to meet in the middle, but 3%, 2 % more. The attraction of tips is the immediate consideration here. So tips should be good value with a 3 % real yield.

7:02The problem is tips investors, tips traders know that if you had a risk off, you'd be in one of the worst possible products. Because in a risk of illiquid instruments like tips would massively underperform and markets would start to price disinflation and deflation. So I think the positioning should favor nominals. So you buy nominals because the real yield is high. It doesn't mean to say you buy tips. Inflation expectations are under control and the real yield, I think, is quite juicy. It's way above where the Fed's saying neutral is. And even if you met in the middle, it's still 100 basis points high.

7:40My good, I shaved my beard today, folks. Tottenham scored a goal yesterday against Liverpool. I finally shaved. So we got to do this. Americans, I want you to understand. Imagine if the New York Mets, the San Francisco Giants, the LA Angels, worst in class, were worried about being relegated down to AAA baseball to play the Rochester Red Wings next year. Now, Steve Major, we know in East London, of course, diehard West Ham United fan, as John Farrow's mentioned. Explain this weekend, Steve Major, when in your childhood your West Ham United will visit, is it Millwall? I mean, this is the mother of all derbies.

8:20And now because West Ham has been so weak, they're down in the Championship League. Is this a big deal in East London? well it is and it it's quite historical because it goes back to the docklands and the workers in the docks yeah and their rival teams and rival uni and rival unions and so it predates me it's more my father's era so so the you know that that history is there and the resentment somehow has carried on to today the truth of it is we don't really care because we're a premiership team and they're not how do you get from west ham how do you get from the league below championship think triple a baseball in america folks what's the process to get back up to premier league you just got to win games right yeah but you see it doesn't happen in america because relegation doesn't isn't there so the reason the valuation of american teams is so much higher than their their British equivalents in sporting terms is because the discounted cash flow is going to be more attractive when you don't have the relegation problem.

9:27You see, the thing is the revenues and the income from TV and sponsorship, it collapses when you get relegated. That's why American teams are worth more. Stephen Major, thank you so much for that briefing. He's with Tradition. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. If you invest, lead a business, or allocate capital, one-sided views aren't enough. Join me, Brad Rogoff, the Global Head of Research at Barclays, on the Flipside podcast. Each month, I go head-to-head with one of our expert analysts on my global team to debate the economic and market issues that matter most.

10:08From inflation and AI to equity and credit trends, each debate helps you see what headlines might miss. Find the Flipside wherever you get your podcasts. The world of business is constantly evolving. Every day, new challenges, new opportunities, new ways of working. Comcast Business keeps you totally in step with secure AI-backed networking built to power the way modern business gets things done today in more than 100 countries around the world. That's some serious muscle. And get this, Comcast Business powers over 90 % of the Fortune 500 and millions of small businesses. Behind it all, network engineers, cybersecurity specialists, support teams, thousands of experts answering your call at 2 a.m.

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12:13you're listening to the bloomberg surveillance podcast catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m eastern listen on apple carplay and android auto with the bloomberg business app or watch us live on youtube you can do this with alicia levine i mean bnycio and all that with prodigious math abilities oh we're gonna go to logs on a wednesday thank you you go that's what you do? You go to logs. That's logarithms, folks. And it's where you get a perspective on percentage movement, not just the media blather about OMG, we're at 5%. So if I take the great moderation and I go back to 1986 before you were born, if I do that, Alicia, I got an average yield smack dab where we are now in the great moderation.

13:00Correct. Is the yield space today for this Fed madness today? Is this normal? Look, we're going back to a pre GFC world. It's clear, you know, on inflation, on rates, on, you know, more industrial economy, less of a financialization of the economy. And you can see it. COVID really was the break in what we had before. And we're going back to what we all grew up with. And yes, I was born, you know, after 1987. But but five percent in a world where we're growing six and a half percent in a world where the market has increasingly priced in rates. You know, if I told you oil's at one hundred and five dollars a barrel, the 10 years at five percent, the 30 is at five point three.

13:48And by the way, the S &P is up double digits and small cap is also up double digits, outpacing the S &P, would you have believed me? The answer is no. And by the way, an AI bot will not take the place of a strategist because of that. We hope. A Fed hike today, maybe the beginning of maybe one or two or three hikes, does that end the bull market? So I don't think it ends the bull market, but we cannot pretend that hikes are good for multiples or good for marginal areas of the market that require funding. So we can't talk ourselves in out of like, it doesn't matter. So I think the rotation you're seeing, some of the struggles you're seeing in duration, that is going to be real.

14:34This is a more of a dispersed market. The top line of the S &P is hung in there, less than 3 % from the high, because other sectors are going to work when others are negative. Very, very hard here. I think just market-wise, you're best off just, I think, just buying the index because some will work very well in this environment. It's been an earnings-driven equities market here. Can we expect not the same earnings next year that we've been getting this year, but still decent earnings next year? Look, we just did this exercise this week. We raised our earnings for next year for mid-range about$430 in S &P share.

15:11We were at$395. Was Jeffrey Yu medicated?

15:17um so but um you know our price targets have not changed on the s &p because we have to confront the fact that the multiple is moving lower we're at 19 times now um the tech sector is at 21 times forward earnings in 1999 that was 46 times so we're not really expensive by any stretch of imagination so we're gonna we're gonna have a muddle through into midterms alexis can i do partial differentials this morning? Oh, I would. OK, partial differentials with Alicia Levine, BNY. So I got nominal GDP as two players, inflation and real GDP. Their dynamic is they raise rates oneeth, twoeth, threeeth, whatever the number is, which of those two, which partial differential there is going to move the most to bring nominal GDP down from a banana republic level?

16:09So I think it's probably a little bit on the growth side, because ultimately the inflation is being driven by supply shocks. Yeah. And the Fed needs to raise rate because the market's telling the Fed it needs to raise rates. And the rhetoric has been that if we don't, we lose credibility. And so therefore they have to. Like it's a circular argument, but there it is. I think the issue is, and for me, I think that the hawks must explain why inflation is not higher. Because if you think about the shocks we've had, we've had tariffs. We've had an oil shock for six months. We've had two wars. We've had a supply shock in the biggest AI.

16:50Plus your kid's tuition bill. Plus my kid's tuition bill. You should see what's going on with housing in Ithaca. Oh, my God. And why is core inflation at 2.4 percent? And so I see the need for the Fed to hike. But the hawks really have to explain why inflation is not higher. That's why I don't think that the hiking cycle is necessarily going to affect the inflation that we're seeing. that we all feel, that we all talk about. Like, let's not pretend it's not real. It is definitely real, but it's going to affect growth on the margin. It will. You say you like materials. Is that a commodities call there?

17:25So it's about the AI buildup, but it's also on the commodity side. We just raised our allocation to real assets about two months ago. Real assets being? Infrastructure, commodities, real estate, because we are in that 3 % inflationary world because we are post-GFC. We are back to the future. We are in a nominal world. We're in a world where central banks may be hiking, but we're not getting back to 2 % anytime soon. And we are in a reshoring, I don't want to call it deglobalization, but we are in a block world. You know, we've got the Western Hemisphere. We've got what's going on with China. And then we've got Europe and maybe Canada, too, is part of that.

18:06Which, whatever it is, it's 2 % of the world economy. But in the end, we are in that nominal world, and you need real assets in a nominal world. So that's why we like materials, because it's also part of the industrialization. The global manufacturing PMI is extraordinary. You've got 90 % of regions in expansion. It's extraordinary. So we have a global investing cycle here. Interesting. What's the AI trade for you guys these days? It's always evolving. Now we've got the whole discussion of whether we need guardrails on AI. And people are trying to figure out what that means for spending. And that's been driving not just the tech space, but maybe the global economy.

18:48Well, look, it definitely drives GDP. Yes. Because it's about one third to one half of U.S. GDP this year. Wow. Because the imports are so high for AI. Like the imports are taking away from top line GDP because you have to subtract it. Think of the chips we're importing from Korea and Taiwan. Right. I got to get this in this morning. Paul and I are going to discuss this later. Thomas Friedman over at the New York Times with a blistering. Are you guys kidding me on AI? So you're in a meeting with all the abilities of BNY. We had a mutual fund manager yesterday. He's number one holding. Bank of New York, which I thought was very cool.

19:24Alicia Levine, how should our listeners and viewers maintain their holdings in MAG7, given the uproar that Tom Friedman and Parmy Olson and others described? Look, I think two things are true at the same time. I think we have to maybe pause. It's also true we're in a foot race with China, and it is naive and worse to think it doesn't matter. Like, this is about the national defense. This is about national security, ultimately. I think we all know that. But these models are smart. I mean, you see how they learn. It's actually quite extraordinary. In the end, you keep the holdings. You keep the holdings and you have to do, you can't start picking sectors here.

20:05I think it's too volatile. But what we know is that the investment will continue. It's still continuing. And it's an industrialization. Are you cashing out your NVIDIA to buy three bedrooms, two baths up in Ithaca? I mean, this is like the parent thing. I want to be a landlord in Ithaca. You want to be a landlord in Ithaca. I want to be a landlord. I want to buy those palpitated houses and charge God knows what. High above Cayuga's waters. You're going to go up there. Are you really going to do this? I thought about it, actually. You thought about it? No, so yes, real assets, right? Real assets.

20:37People are in Boulder. It's a nominal world. And so your investing has to take into account real assets and a higher inflation. We are underweight fixed income. Right. And nevertheless, nevertheless, high yield's done well. Emerging market debt has done well. Like, it's really extraordinary. You've got a global growth going on there. Did I see you at the U.S. Open? Yeah, no, you did not. You weren't at the U.S. Open? I was in Maine, no. She's saving for the house in Ithaca. She couldn't afford the tickets. She's got this beautiful necklace on. I thought it was something Savalenka wore. Alicia Levine, wear this.

21:14Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

21:25you're listening to the bloomberg surveillance podcast catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m eastern listen on apple carplay and android auto with the bloomberg business app or watch us live on youtube this is a joy jay goldenberg has a huge experience in semis out Berkley among other parchment just hugely esteemed. Jay Goldberg all of us have a stereotype of the ups and downs of the Sox index years ago. How is the new semiconductor business different from the stereotypes we carry? That's a tough one because I think in some ways it's not that different semiconductors are still cyclical um they go up and they go down it's just it's this this time it uh it it may be a while before it goes down again i think this is the strongest semiconductor upswing cycle any of us have ever seen um it's just an incredible massive cycle uh growth everywhere and i think you know there are some people who think that you know maybe this time is different there are some signs that there are some structural changes in the industry that will even out the cyclicality in the future i'm not quite there yet but like i can see i can see their their reasoning jay uh anytime i see a graphic of the ai space and it's a flywheel of all these companies doing deals with each other who's buying what from whom sitting right smack in the middle of that graphic is usually nvidia you have a cell on nvidia walk us through the logic there So I always position this to clients as an underperform rating rather than, you know, I'm not telling people to go out and shorten NVIDIA.

23:13I think it's just going to underperform the rest of the semis, the rest of the AI complex. And that's just, I think, partly a function of it's gotten very big and so it's harder and harder for it to move the needle. Expectations are always very high and it's increasingly hard to beat them. And on top of that, they're sold out. Right. They're sold out, they said, for this year, probably for next year. And once you're sold out, what's what's the upside? And so I think there's a strong argument to say that the stock is, you know, it's just going to be hard to hard to perform. It's hard to beat anyone else.

23:46So, Jay, I'm sure you're probably getting a lot of phone calls from clients over the last week, if not longer. Just about what we're hearing from some of these leaders of the AI space, the Altman's, the Elon Musk's of the world about maybe putting some guardrails on this whole thing. How do you frame that discussion out for your institutional investor clients? Well, just to be honest, I didn't take any investor calls last week because I was in Italy. Good for you. But I have been I've been following this debate more than I should have. And I think I think there's a lot of there's a lot of complexity here.

24:22I think what you see is the two big companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, have realized that there are very serious cybersecurity threats capable from their tools. That's already very clear. And I think some degree of coordination is going to have to take place. And the rest is just debating exactly what that coordination looks like. There are some who are calling for full-on government regulation. There are industry standards. I think if you sort of if you take out the AI is going to kill us all sort of aspect of it. Like industries regulate, right? Industry standardized. There's lots of ways to do it.

25:01It doesn't have to be big and ugly, but it's going to have to they're going to have to do something here. What is the significance of the new Apple iPhone, the A20 chip? And folks, this chip is from Taiwan Semi, and it's not three nanometers. It's two nanometers. nanometers. Is that just the future to come, Jay? Just as continued innovation? Well, if you look at semiconductor manufacturing processes, which is what those three nanometer and two nanometer refer to, and the idea is you can get more and more packed into each chip, that's Moore's law. I'm not sure how much longer that goes on, right?

25:39It's Moore's law, this idea that compute gets denser, doubles every two years, that's slowed down considerably. We're still getting advances, but we're having to work harder for each one. And I mean, the apple chip is remarkable for a lot of reasons, but I think we're having to work ever harder to get those strengths. Jay, thank you so much. Jay Goldberg, Seaport Research Partners with us on the Semiconductor Business. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. the world of business is constantly evolving every day new challenges new opportunities new ways of working comcast business keeps you totally in step with secure ai-backed networking built to power the way modern business gets things done today in more than 100 countries around the world that's some serious muscle and get this comcast business powers over 90 percent of the Fortune 500 and millions of small businesses.

26:42Behind it all, network engineers, cybersecurity specialists, support teams, thousands of experts answering your call at 2 a.m. like it's 2 p.m. Always on, always ready. That's a lot of coffee. One partner powering how business gets done for companies of every size all around the globe. When you add it all up, no one does business like Comcast Business. A business gift is never just a gift. It's a thank you, a milestone, a moment of appreciation. It's a message about how much someone matters and what your brand stands for. At 4imprint, you'll find thousands of customizable options, like premium apparel, branded drinkware, tech, totes, and more, each chosen not just for function, but for meaning.

27:27You can tailor every detail, your logo, your message, your presentation, so your gift feels personal and on-brand. And with expert support, dependable service, and thousands without a setup fee, creating something thoughtful doesn't mean making it complicated. Every order is backed by 4imprint's 360-degree guarantee, so you can be 4imprint certain it'll arrive exactly as expected, on time, and with the care your brand deserves. Because when the moment matters, the right gift speaks volumes, and the right partner makes it easy. Explore gifting with purpose and certainty at 4imprint.com. 4imprint.

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28:38You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. Right to it. And David, I want to set this up off what we heard from Dr. Constam yesterday, is he's got a worse school and a Waller school. The Warsh School is saying the trend of inflation, oil, da-da-da-da-da, is price up. And the Waller School is saying, yeah, but it's all shocks and they're going to go away. Are you in the Warsh camp or the Waller camp? Hi, Tom. Well, what do you think?

29:19I'm in the Waller camp. Well, I'm shocked. And I knew you would be. but you know I would say that it's one of the reasons why treasury yields are where they are I mean people are talking about say the oil price but WTI today is at the same level it was back on April 30th when the 10-year note was actually south of four and a half percent so I think we've had a couple of watersheds we had the the last set of dot plots on June 17th moved from a cut this year to a hike. Now the market's pricing in almost two hikes, so that was a watershed. And then Powell then worse set the bar really low for a rate hike at Jackson Hole.

30:06So a lot of this has been, as far as the Treasury market's concerned, a reset in Fed expectations. I mean, is oil breaking out to new highs? No. You could argue it's at the high end of the range. But what I find interesting really about Warsh is that for ages, he was talking about his preferred measure being the Dallas Fed trim mean, and that's running at 2.3 % year over year. It's a full percentage point before the headline core PC deflator, which is pretty unusual because they tend historically to run right on top of each other. There's a full percentage point gap. But he went on record as saying before he turned hawkish that his favorite inflation indicator, although he doesn't really trust any of them, is running at 2.3%.

30:54And this time last year, it's running at 2.7%. And yet then at Jackson Hole, he laments the fact that the underlying inflation trend isn't moving down. Meanwhile, it's 40 basis points lower than it was this time last year. So it's just, I think, injected a lot of confusion as far as I'm concerned. David, you point out in your breakfast note this morning that if they do raise rates today, it'll be the first time since July of 2023. And a lot of folks are asking, will this be one and done, or we should be getting ready for maybe two or three? Well, I think it's going to be situational. There's some things that are happening that are very important, and one of them is on September 30th, when the BEA is going to do a whole revisit and reset and revision on the PC deflator.

31:51And my sense is how much will the trend be revised down. That's why I'm so surprised that Kevin Morse started sounding so hawkish in light of the fact that September 30th is a very important date in terms of what this newly revised deflator data are going to show. And then he establishes these committees, these task forces. One of them is on inflation. And we don't know what the results of that yet. Were you invited to be on the task force? No, I wasn't.

32:28But that's not a surprise either. Okay, David, help me here. I'm not a statistician, but let's just say that it's hard to say right now. You know, the situation is so fluid. I mean, it wasn't that long ago when the market was priced for a rate cut. Right. Now it's priced for two hikes that the Fed actually had it back in March, had a rate cut in the stock plot. So it can shift the other way, too, depending on how the economy goes in the next few months. Take us back to Merrill Lynch, page three of a Rosenberg report. People stole them off desks. And there was a column on page three of 400 gazillion inflation parameters.

33:08Which inflation series now, David Rosenberg, indicate trend or disinflation away from the angst that we all feel? It's a great question. Look, the whole thing comes down to the oil price and whatever spillovers we've had into airfares and delivery services. There's been other idiosyncratic developments that have taken place in financial services, for example, and telecom services. Like I said, those are idiosyncratic. But what am I looking at? Are we seeing monetary inflation, M2, just over 5%, but money velocity peaked in March and is rolling over? I'm not saying true monetary inflation. What about the housing market, right?

33:54New home prices are down 1 % year over year. Rental rates nationwide are still declining, albeit moderately. There's no inflation out of the housing market. I'm not saying monetary inflation. And what about the labour market? Where is the inflation in the labour market? When you know labour costs are running like at 1.4 % year over year. This time last year they were 2%. This is the sort of stuff you see that deep thinkers like Greenspan and like Bernanke and like Yellen would be talking about right now. So how are you going to get any sustained inflation from oil when you're not seeing monetary housing or labor market inflation?

34:31In fact, you're seeing disinflation in those three principal areas of the economy. David, your shop, you should see the gnomes of Toronto and David Rosenberg's shop. You just published your retail sales takeout. And I'm sorry, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research. This is a really plus, plus, plus view on inflation, on retail, rather. I should say, is nominal GDP going to come down? I expect that nominal GDP growth will be decelerating because, you know, notwithstanding the very good retail sales report, it did come off, you know, a negative in July. It looks as though real retail sales are running somewhere below 2 % annualized for the third quarter, so not too hot, not too cold.

35:20But keep in mind that one thing that's going to happen post-November the third after the midterms is we get fiscal gridlock that's going to replace six years of unrelenting fiscal stimulus. And that's going to cut an aggregate demand. And I do think that, you know, again, the assumption is what do oil prices do? But I do think that the trend in underlying inflation is going to be coming down. So I'm in the camp that thinks that normal GDP growth is not going to go negative. But do I think that if I had to choose between deceleration or acceleration or just staying the same, I think it's going to decelerate.

35:51I think we need you on the task force. David Rosenberg of Canada, of Toronto, obviously Rosenberg Research. Thank you so much. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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From the publisher

The latest in finance, economics and investment.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney
Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

Featuring:

1) Steven Major, Global Macro Advisor at Tradition, talks about the case for a bond rally and falling yields.

2) Alicia Levine, CIO at BNY, on a constructive equity market approach and how higher yields bleed into equities.

3) Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Group, joins to discuss AI anxiety and his continue "sell" recommendation on Nvidia.

4) David Rosenberg, founder at Rosenberg Research, joins to talk about his Fed outlook and US consumer economic anxieties.

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