Amazon Soars, Apple Struggles, AI Faces New Scrutiny

21:27This is a sizable portfolio that includes a$5 billion position in Anthropic. And the fact that they were in talks with Sequoia and Green Oaks to potentially offload those stakes really shows how dramatic the situation was. Ultimately, they did not go ahead with that because they got the Citadel deal. But it is not a great sign when a fund is looking at trying to sell their public and their private book to meet margin calls.

21:55Ed Ludlow:Hemma, what's the state of play? It sounds like the firm is still there and has its private book. Has anyone heard from Leopold Aschenbrenner in the last 24 hours? Yes, he sent a letter to investors apologizing for the dramatic unfolding of events, saying that he is responsible, saying that the fund still has its year-to-date or since inception performance of up 80%. But keep in mind the monthly performance down nearly 70 percent. Also really important is thinking about when investors got in. The LPs that got in early in the fund's existence, they're probably doing OK. But if you're an investor and you got in the past few months, the pain is pretty bad.

22:40Ed Ludlow:Bloomberg's Hemaparma. Thank you very much indeed. Tesla is considering separating its China business to pave the way for a potential SpaceX merger, all according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. While the journal said some Tesla execs have been told to prepare for that move, CEO Elon Musk wrote on X the report was, quote, fake news. Joining us now, Bloomberg managing editor Frank Trudell. Let's start with what is in the Wall Street Journal report. There are multiple lines of information about what's being considered. Summarize as best you can. Yeah, I think in the sort of broad scheme of things, all eyes have been for months now on is SpaceX and Tesla, are these companies going to combine?

23:25Ed Ludlow:And one of the big questions has been, how do these companies sort of come together considering the fact that SpaceX is this great big U.S. defense contractor and Tesla has this huge China business that is crucial to the company? Aren't those two things sort of in conflict? I think what was very interesting about this report last night was, yes, It laid out some elements of the fact that these companies already are kind of separate, but I think that's pretty well known and understood. I think the question is, what exactly are advisors thinking or how is this possibly going to work out, considering the fact that the Chinese Communist Party probably is not particularly inclined for the Shanghai factory that's so crucial to Tesla sort of closing up to, you know, the SpaceX business or at all sort of overlapping with SpaceX, which, you know, Musk has been quite open about, you know, not being crazy about Starlink.

24:25Ed Ludlow:Exactly. So, you know, Musk posted more than once. This is one of the post on X. This has never even come up in a discussion ever. Absurdly fake news. People should assume news is fake until proven otherwise. I think our colleagues in China were also able to make contact with Tesla China who disputed the report, right? That's correct. And, you know, look, I think the fact that Musk has been sort of, you know, very public about the fact that Starlink is a no-go in China has also talked quite openly about, you know, just how much China is competing with SpaceX. I think there are a lot of elements of the journal's reporting that sort of, you know, ring true.

25:05The question is, of course, you know, what's going on behind the scenes for these

25:10Ed Ludlow:companies to sort of game out what could be done. I think, you know, the journal, you know, sort of brought some new things to light last night. Of course, Musk and his camp is pushing back on what was reported. That's Craig Trudell. Thank you very much. Let's stick with Musk. Just a year after his bitter split with President Donald Trump, he looks to reenter the political sphere with plans to spend at least 100 million dollars to back republican candidates for the midterms that's according to the new york times however just last week musk told the economist that he got quote a little too involved in politics got carried away frankly according to reports his super PACs planning to spend between 100 million and 120 million dollars on a new field program in at least eight states

26:01Ed Ludlow:welcome back to bloomberg tech earnings in the world of tech is the big story but i thought let's take a beat this friday and look at the nasdaq 100 on the week modestly lower four tenths of a percent in semiconductors on the socks we're down four percent on the week and there's just been so much news flow remember the week started with concerns about circular financing and video and we've kind of ended the week with pretty upbeat picture of capital expenditures in the world of ai largely through amazon's lens but apple wow that was a bit of a surprise their management of the supply chain apple's on track for its biggest drop since march of 2020 on an outlook for the september quarter that was below expectations but disclosure of some mismanagement of the supply chain and one would not expect to say that about apple in tim cook's final earnings school.

26:55Ed Ludlow:Then there's Amazon on track for its biggest jump since 2012. Incredible cloud growth and a lot of AI momentum. Let's talk about earnings. Apple, Amazon, and how it's all going. Joining us now is Laffer Tengler Investments CEO and CEO Nancy Tengler. And let me tell you, on a Friday, we have to go through all of it. There's no one better. Let's start with Amazon. You know both companies well and you have for the firm and for your clients, you know, clear strategy that involves both of them. Was there one single thing with Amazon that just jumped out at you and thought, yep, we've got this one right?

27:30Yeah, and we started adding it to our value portfolio and actually used proceeds from Apple earlier this week to continue that addition. It has been trading like a value stock. And what we knew was CEO Jassy understands how to roll out new technologies as he was kind of the father of AWS. So our bet has been on him. It was our stock of the year. It didn't look so good until yesterday and today or today, mostly. But effectively, what we believe is that the company is in a position to monetize the CapEx spend. And that's been a big concern on Wall Street. So, you know, a lot of levers to pull there.

28:11They pulled all the levers and it was an outstanding quarter.

28:15Ed Ludlow:The two that people focus on beyond sort of growth of the cloud business is the revenue run rate for the chip business, renting cloud capacity, but on their own silicon. And then what they call AWS AI, which is services, bedrock models, et cetera. Do you look at those or does it still just fall to AWS overall? I mean, in fact, well, we'd look at all the segments and the one that always gets overlooked is the retail side, maybe even advertising. We certainly look at all of them. But what we're concerned about as investors is the management pivoting. And that was the reason we got out of Adobe, because you had a CEO who missed kind of, now the stock's recovered some, but it's still half of where we got out.

28:58So we're looking for management teams that really are driving into the future. And that is the case at Amazon. Jassy's cut costs in pretty much all the right places, invested in the right places. And he keeps a low profile, which I think is also very important as an investor. So, yep, we pay attention to that and we care about it. But generally speaking, overarching, what is the catalyst for outperformance? And we think it's being in the sweet spot of investing in CapEx and monetizing it from an AI standpoint.

29:32Ed Ludlow:Nancy, would it be fair to say that in financial markets, people have different opinions on the same metric. And the case study I put to you is free cash flow. You know, Meta showed its lowest level of free cash flow since 2022. Amazon's been in negative free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis, and no one seems to mind. Like, I'm not an investor. I'm a financial and technology journalist. But, you know, people would always say free cash flow is the much better measure than margin or any form of profit. And everyone seems to sort of be calm about that. Well, I think, no, you're 100 % right, Ed, but I think we are in an economy and a sector that's in a major transformation.

30:12And during those periods historically, I've been doing this for 40 plus years, you must invest. It is an arms race. And so we can tolerate as investors periods of negative free cash flow, particularly when a company has the balance sheet of quality that these hyperscalers have. So it is a metric that's super important to most investors and to us as well. But if you're investing for the future, you have to be willing to sacrifice free cash flow at some point to invest for the next round. And I think what we saw in this report is the investment is paying off and free cash flow will return. And he talked quite a bit about that.

30:53Ed Ludlow:Let's talk about Apple. It was Tim Cook's final earnings and call as CEO becomes executive chair September 1st, John Turnus becomes CEO. The September quarter, the world is getting more difficult for them. But there was this admission that they'd got it wrong on how they handled supply chain. What did you make of that? Yeah, I kind of, I mean, I'm not happy about it, but that is one of the things I've loved about Tim Cook over the 13 years we've owned the stock. We got in after the Google Map debacle. He wrote, if you recall, he wrote an apology, basically acknowledging this mistake. In January of 2019, when they missed earnings, he wrote a letter to shareholders.

31:35I don't know other CEOs that do that. So he is a competent, obviously, manager of the supply chain and the business, but he made mistake, as we all do. I make them every day. And so I think what we learned, however, is that the next quarter, which was expected to continue to be a really strong momentum quarter, is not going to be. In that whole discussion, though, Ed, what I thought was interesting was that he said, even though the supply of memory chips may improve, we don't expect prices to go down. We expect them to go up. And he also didn't say that he was going to be in China buying those parts.

32:14So I think the market's still trying to digest all of that. We had sold a chunk of our holdings, about 25 percent going into earnings because it had just been such a strong performer relative to everything else. And so we thought some of the good news was priced in and we wanted to fund names like Amazon that had not participated in the rally. So I think it's a name you hold on to. We call it our Treasury Bill of Technology Holdings. But I don't think you chase it in here. You let it settle and watch very carefully. They are going to have an AI announcement. We are going to have a new CEO. They always get tested.

32:49Jassy did. Tim Cook did. So I think you have some time to at least accumulate the holdings, but certainly not today.

32:59Ed Ludlow:Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO of Lafetenga Investments. Happy Friday. It's been a long week. Thank you very much. Rivian's quarterly revenue beat estimates, but the EV maker still posting losses. They're narrowing. It begins deliveries of the new midsize SUV R2. Shares opened higher. They're now down 8%. I caught up with CFO Claire McDonough, who says that the new R2 will be a key catalyst for Rivian's anticipated growth. We're really excited about the opportunity to both introduce R2 to the world in June. So it's the start of our first external customer deliveries. Also the first opportunity for consumers to test drive the vehicle as well.

33:40And we were able to complete 57 ,000 demo drives over the course of the second quarter. And R2 was a key enabler and driver of the increase that we saw in our demo drive and traffic across each of our retail locations and spaces. And the reaction from the media has just been fantastic. And the same is true as we looked at the feedback that we're seeing from consumers who are getting behind the wheel, experiencing it for themselves. And for someone like myself that's been here for five and a half years now, just a really great moment to see R2 out into the wild and now Rivian in position to scale up production over the second half of the year.

34:24Ed Ludlow:Claire, do you track the conversion rate of those 57 ,000 demos? How many end up being actual sales? Right now, we're in the process of both taking existing reservation holders who are interested in R2 and giving them really the first look to experience the product, and then also introducing more and more customers into the broader Rivian ecosystem. So this is a big moment for the business as we're trying to drive and expand our brand awareness and introduce more households into the Rivian community. Can you try and quantify what the sales contribution from R2 was in that quarter and kind of where you're tracking?

35:06Ed Ludlow:You've already said that, you know, in the back half of this year, that's where we'll start to see R2 in a meaningful way. But what is the trajectory you see? In the second quarter, R2 was limited in terms of the number of deliveries that was contributed to our overall delivery volumes of just over 12 ,000 units. But embedded within our 65 ,000 to 70 ,000 units of guidance for the year, we'll see a significant step up in the second half for deliveries. And our two will be a key catalyst for the growth that we anticipate seeing. That was Rivian CFO, Claire McDonough. President Trump now holding a cabinet meeting at Camp David.

35:48Ed Ludlow:Let's listen in. We're basically his favorite nation. So we have the lowest drug prices anywhere in the world from the highest drug prices anywhere in the world. Now, what that does for your health care? I mean, I see these fake polls where the Democrats have wonderful numbers on this stuff, and they are horrible what they've done. Obamacare is a total disaster. It's a costly wreck. It's unaffordable. We call it the Unaffordable Care Act. It's a disgrace. They never even thought of being able to do something like this. They didn't even try. They didn't even try. So I got the drug companies first and then I got the countries and the drug companies agreed because they knew the countries wouldn't agree.

36:28And when I called Germany, France, when I called the UK, when I called all of these countries, I said, you got to do it. It's unfair. We're paying 10 times more than you're paying for the same drug. You can't do this. And they said, well, we're not going to do that because we're going to have to double our price in order to make you happy. I said, no, maybe you're going to have to triple your price. They said, well, we can't do it. I said, that's all right. If you can't do it, then I can't do something also. And I'm going to charge you very substantial tariffs, which are far more than we're talking about.

36:59And they all said, we'd love to do it. We would love to do it. It would be a great honor to do it. So nobody else would do this. This would have never happened. So your drug prices have gone down by numbers not even thinkable. My first term, I had the privilege of having lower drug prices from the beginning of the year till the end. for the first time in 28 years you remember and i called the news conference to announce it so the year it ended and i was turned out one eighth of a percent one eighth of a percent a little tiny this much it went down that much during one year first time in 28 years it went down it was always like this just up more expensive and i called the news conference i was so proud of myself and i I said, ladies and gentlemen, the first time in 28 years drug prices have gone down from January till the end of December.

37:51And I want to just congratulate everybody for being a part of this wonderful experiment. And one-eighth of a point now, we're talking about 400, 500, 600 percent coming down. We pay the lowest drug prices anywhere in the world from the highest. So, you know, and I'll say it again and again because the press doesn't want to report it. The fake news doesn't want to report it. They don't want to talk about it. What that does for health care, Bobby, is unbelievable because medicine is a big part of health care. So I wish that people would understand that. And I hope they're going to vote for us in the midterms because you'll see some stuff that will be horrible because they can blow it very fast if they don't know what they're doing.

38:32So your drug prices are great. You know, I saw Spain yesterday and I watched the catastrophe that took place. It was a it looks like an invasion of a country by hundreds of thousands of people. And that same thing is going to happen to us if the Republicans don't get elected, except worse. Much bigger, much easier to get into, despite the fact that we have built thousands of miles of wall, which I said we were going to do. But we didn't have that. Forget it. But we have the safest border in the world if we're not in office.

39:08Ed Ludlow:That was President Trump speaking in a cabinet meeting at Camp David. No headlines other than the president touting the stock market. We'll continue to monitor and bring you headlines if and when they come. For terminal users, you can get to this in full by going to Live Go. With Anthropic joining OpenAI in revealing that some of its AI models broke out of sealed testing and hacked outside organizations, Fears about the real world risks and calls for safeguards are rising. The concern isn't just what AI knows anymore. It's what AI can do. As these systems become more agentic and begin taking actions in the real world, trust, security become more important.

39:49Ed Ludlow:Dina Shakir, partner at Lux Capital and an investor across the AI spectrum with a focus on health, something that the president has been speaking about in the last few minutes, joins us now. You know, you know so many founders that have a strong view on this. You're investing into the space just to start your reaction to Anthropics disclosure last night in aggregate with the open eye hugging face situation. Great to see you. Thanks for having me. Yeah. You know, two weeks in a row of disclosures here are certainly ringing ringing alarm bells for quite a few people. But I think it's really illustrating a broader point, which is that we are moving beyond the commoditization of intelligence models to your point into what happens when models interact with the real world.

40:36These disclosures show both what can happen when there's a misconfiguration in the anthropic case around a sandbox. And also when you stress test these super hyper intelligent models, the potential risks. At the same time, I think it's incredibly exciting how advanced these models are getting and where the real opportunity might actually be moving beyond the commoditization of models into the operating system and, most importantly, the trust infrastructure around it.

41:08Ed Ludlow:The president was speaking about drug prices, about the role and positioning of drug prices in health care. you know my hope was you come on the show and kind of do the newspapers with me anyway but you know you are very focused on that vertical and I mean literal vertical AI application of healthcare there's an opportunity there it seems to really change industry. There is Ed and you were with us in March when we hosted a whole conference around the opportunity at the intersection of healthcare and AI. Since then there have been quite a few exciting developments from all of the labs, whether it's Anthropic, going on the record saying healthcare is one of their biggest priorities, going deep into life sciences, talking about, in fact, drug development as a potential priority for them, or OpenAI's launched just last week around healthcare.

42:04And I don't know if you've played around with it at all. It's been really fun. I've enjoyed using it. As someone who helped launch Google Health over a decade ago, it's really remarkable to see just how far these models have taken the opportunity to really take healthcare information into your own hands. But I think more importantly, moving beyond information gathering into actual action. And I think that's where the next generation of innovation in and around healthcare and frankly across regulated industries will be.

42:34Ed Ludlow:When I was with you at the conference in March, in the room, there were the founders of specialized startups. There were representatives from all kinds of technology companies, former clinicians and some regulators. Right. And I think the question posed was, if OpenAI and Anthropic are so big and their capabilities so wide, why do they not go after this field more intensely? Yeah, you know, I think this is an existential question for pretty much every applied AI company. With regard to healthcare specifically, it's a valid one. As I just mentioned, both of those labs have gone on the record not only launching in and around healthcare and life sciences, but talking about how important these priorities are.

43:17But I think what's become clear is that they will not happen in isolation. If you saw the launch coming out of ChatGPT on the healthcare side, the product itself is grounded in partnership. It's about literally connecting your health information, whether it's your function health labs or your EMR records or Apple Health, to these labs. And so at the end of the day, it's, again, incredibly exciting how good these models are getting. But it's less about extracting information and more about taking that information and applying it to the real world context. And health care might very well be the best example of the real physical world interacting with models.

43:58Without those partnerships, the healthcare information is just living in isolation. It is going to be dependent on deployment and on partnership. And so that's where I think it's actually never been more exciting for startups and for third-party companies, right? Rather than trying to replicate a model or build a new foundational layer, they are the ones who can take deployment to the next level.

44:24Ed Ludlow:Dina, can we talk a little bit about some of your recent investments? You're a very busy person. I mean that in the kindest way. But, you know, you have been doing some interesting rounds of late. You know, Lux Capital has scale, which I always find so interesting. But I also recognize increasingly some of the more legacy Wall Street institutions, private growth equity, mutual funds getting earlier into the game in some of these verticals. Yeah, I mean, there's so much opportunity. I think everybody wants to have a hand in it for sure. At Lux, we are excited about the opportunity across a number of verticals, healthcare being one of them, but across quite a few others as well.

45:06I think physical AI and robotics is a massive opportunity, and we're still really at the early days there. But it's clear that AI is no longer just, you know, it's not even a sector. It's how we used to talk about tech, right? And tech eventually became everything. AI is an operating system, and the opportunity across these legacy institutions. is absolutely massive and we're literally just getting started.

45:29Ed Ludlow:It's so funny. So like when I moved to San Francisco in 2018, I kind of felt like I missed the boat a little bit, you know, on the social media wave and on hardware. And now, you know, AI is technology in itself. What do you think happens kind of in the balance of the year in private markets? You know, there are certain spaces, defense tech's one that luck's super focused on, where there's just such momentum. The numbers this year are bigger than last year. Does that apply to health? What is the kind of zoomed out view of the industries you're investing in? Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lesson here that every time you think you know, something pops up and proves you wrong.

46:06But I think with regard to private markets, as I said, the opportunity has actually never been better in the application layer. And that wouldn't have been the case if I had come on this show just a couple of years ago. I think the focus at that time was more around infrastructure and around the models. But it's become clear just how quickly these models can advance. And it's also become clear, again, that they can't do it in isolation. So we're excited about everything from real-world health companies like Sonata Health, which we just announced a few days ago, to sovereign AI, companies that are taking the next layer of deployment, even geographically.

46:47Geographically, we recently announced a new investment in a company called 1001 AI in the GCC. And I think those are great examples, whether it's healthcare or sovereign AI, where that trust layer, especially given the news in recent weeks and these incidents, is going to be more important than ever. And there are more and more interesting companies in the works right now that we'll be excited to unveil in weeks to come.

47:12Ed Ludlow:Dina Shakir, partner at Lux Capital, back on Bloomberg Tech. Thank you very much indeed. Coming up, media investor concerns of heavy AI spending from the hyperscalers. Microsoft's kind of easing fears by promising to stay cash flow positive. Details next. This is Bloomberg Tech. Let's talk about health care for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day.

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50:16Ed Ludlow:Today's big number,$450 billion. That's how much Microsoft added to its value yesterday after its market cap jumped 16%, increasing more than any company ever in a single day. That number is even higher today with the stock up 2.3%. Why are investors so happy? Because, writes Bloomberg's Brody Ford, Microsoft struck a cautious tone on spending. Unlike many of its Mag7 peers, managed to ease investor fears over AI spending by remaining cash flow positive. Bloomberg's Brody Ford joins us now with the tech in depth. This is important. Free cash flow is the metric people are looking at. And they are making a commitment.

50:54Ed Ludlow:They've stated it. Right. That's the whole debate over the last couple of months, right? All the money being spent on data centers isn't going to have looked like a shrewd bet. We see some of the world's great cash flow businesses, Amazon, Meta, Google, heading towards negative free cash flow. And Microsoft has said that we're going to prioritize staying cash flow positive. We're going to strike a moderate tone on our spending. And at least for now, the market is super happy to see that. And it's not like Microsoft's CapEx commitment is small, right? It's not low. Yeah. I mean, I remember the big moment of the last year, maybe it was more than a year ago now, is Oracle tipping into negative free cash flow, right?

51:30Ed Ludlow:Markets freaked out. Comparing Charles last night with Amazon, Amazon's, you know, on a trailing basis, been negative cash flow for a while. You make a good point. When Oracle went free cash flow negative, they were the first big company to do so. Everybody thought, Larry Ellison's crazy. What is he doing? Everybody's digested that that might be what's needed to do a massive cloud build out, right? So yeah, Microsoft is still spending$175 billion a year. That's a lot of money. But they're signaling that there's somewhat of an end in sight, that it's not going to be this constant ratcheting up of spending, which is what makes the market super nervous.

52:06Ed Ludlow:Last night, Amazon raised CapEx for the year very quickly,$20 billion, because costs were higher. Has Microsoft explained how they're going to pull off their goal? No, they haven't. And the fact that costs are going up with memory, and they're still holding it steady, it means they're finding cost efficiency, right? And so if that is truly what's happening, folks will be happy to see it. Bloomberg's Brody Ford with a must read. Thank you. That does it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech. Don't forget, recap the podcast. You know where to find it on the Bloomberg Terminal as well as online on Apple, Spotify, and iHeart.

52:40Ed Ludlow:Goodness, what a week. A big earnings week. It started with circular financing chat. We've had AI models break free of sandboxes. And still, the city of San Francisco looks beautiful this Friday. Have a great weekend. This is Bloomberg Tech. Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get, and care that looks at the whole person how you need it.

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