Fed Focus, Anthropic Victory and PayPal Deal Bust

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26:23A U.S. judge ruled that the Trump administration must lift its ban on Anthropics AI technology from federal agencies. The judge found that the ban isn't adequately justified and was based on a desire to make a public example out of Anthropics for its criticism of the government. Bloomberg's Rachel Metz has the details. Rachel, is it just as easy now as flipping a switch and saying, OK, well, now the government is using Anthropic tech again? No, it's not quite that easy. So Anthropic has been fighting a legal battle on two fronts here, as has the government. So it got a decision that is positive for Anthropic in this California court.

27:02However, it also now needs to get approval or the government will get its way in a D.C. court. So based on that decision, it kind of then we'll see what happens next. But it is not that simple. But we got to go back to what's at issue here. And that was the concern about what Anthropic thought its technology could be used for and what it didn't want its technology to be used for. Mass surveillance of Americans or autonomous weapons deployment. The government resisted any restrictions on its use due to national security concerns. Is there any clarity on that front? I mean, I think the one thing that there was definitely some clarity on was in like a piece of the judge's ruling.

27:46She made it clear that the Defense Department isn't prevented from taking any lawful actions that were already available to it before it set this supply chain risk designation against Anthropoc. So, for instance, the order that the judge made the other day, it doesn't mean that the Defense Department has to use Anthropix products. It could go and use another supplier. And in fact, it does have other, it does work with other AI companies such as OpenAI. So as long as it does those things consistent with the regulations, the judge said, right, applicable regulation statutes and constitutional provisions, that's all fine, according to this judge.

28:24Well, speaking of Anthropic, it's among the companies, along with OpenAI and 100 other tech and financial services organizations, that are warning that businesses and governments must do more to prepare for and defend against AI-enabled hacks. They're urging action as AI models improve. What specifically are they concerned about and are they calling on the government to do? So what we've seen over the last several months is there have been a handful of incidents involving some of the cyber capable AI models from specifically from OpenAI, Anthropic and one of Meadows models was involved in an incident as well.

29:03But basically, the companies are saying, look, we've made these models. They are so good at defending against cybersecurity threats, but they also conversely could be used for the opposite to perpetrate those kinds of threats. And because of that, we think that governments and organizations, companies really should shore up the defenses they have because the companies are concerned that these models could be used positively, but also misused by bad actors. Bloomberg's Rachel Matz out there in San Francisco. Check out Rachel and the entire team's reporting on the Bloomberg Terminal and at Bloomberg.com.

29:36Coming up next, we're going back to Wyoming for more on what we learned from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the symposium. This is Bloomberg Tech.

29:55Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. More from Jackson Hole in just a minute. First, though, a check on the markets. It's Bloomberg's Isabel Lee is standing by for more. Hey, Isabel. Hey, Ed. I want to bring you some individual movers. First, let's talk about Affirm. You see the shares there popping by 8%. It actually rose double digits earlier in the day to its highest since August 2025. The company reported earnings that beat estimates, especially on the revenue front. It also announced plans alongside Shopify to launch some of its services in Australia. So you see a good, healthy gain there. And NVIDIA, we're seeing the opposite story, down by nearly 2%.

30:27But we have to give NVIDIA a break. Of course, we saw a blistering rally yesterday where the stock added nearly$450 billion to its market cap. That is the second largest one-day gain in history ever. It just really trailed Microsoft. And of course, on Wednesday, we saw fantastic earnings from NVIDIA with Bloomberg Intelligence saying the outlook was jaw-dropping and JP Morgan saying that it was better than expected. Let's take a zoom out again and look at broader markets. And you see there, healthy gains from the S &P higher by 0.4 % and the NASDAQ higher by also 0.3 % of 1%. We're about one hour after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh gave a speech.

31:03This is his first major speech, especially as head of the central bank in the United States. And he said that he vows to keep inflation at 2%. He says financial conditions, to his view, are currently not restrictive and interest rates are the primary tool of the Fed in keeping inflation steady. And, of course, that pushed yields higher. Oh, actually, now, yes, yields are higher by nearly 10 basis points for the two-year yield. This is more sensitive to imminent policy moves. And you see 10-year yields, you see less of a move there, higher, but just two basis points. Tim. Bloomberg's Isabel Lee with an update.

31:35Thank you, Isabel, mentioning Jackson Hole. Let's get back over to Jackson Hole, where we are waiting for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to lead central bankers on their traditional walk. Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowitz and Michael McKee are braving the elements and joining us for more color on what we learned this morning. Lisa, I want to start with you. What did we learn this morning as the dust settles from Chairman Warsh's first address at Jackson Hole? Well, we actually learned quite a lot. I would say this was incredibly informative, and it showed that really we did see some sort of hawkish result from this Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.

32:10He came out and he said that we will not tolerate above target inflation for this long. We are not satisfied. He did talk about how core PCE, that that 2 % target is absolute. They are not looking to really undermine that in any capacity. And he talked about the components of PCE, and it sounds granular, but that actually is giving markets what they want, which is a gauge of exactly how much you are seeing inflation come through in different ways that goes beyond just oil prices and tariffs and even the AI shock. And that that is concerning and unacceptable and that really it does squarely fall with them.

32:45So you're seeing a reaction in markets because it was substantive. It did give something concrete. And even if he wasn't going to give a reaction function, he gave a lot that we could actually feed into that gives us a sense of what he's looking for. Well, to get a sense of what he talked about, let's play just a little bit of sound from that speech that ended just about an hour ago. Now, there is one signal nobody can miss. The responsibility for 65 months of sustained elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank. and that's where it belongs. So here is my standard. We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed.

33:27Otherwise, we have work to do. That's our job. That's our mandate. And that's our charge to keep. That was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh just in the last hour from Jackson Hole. Michael McKee, I want to bring you in here because something that stuck out to me about this, he said, Here is my standard. Is this standard any different from previous Fed chairs?

33:53Not particularly. What he was basically saying is that inflation is their main goal. And so if we're not making progress on inflation, we are not meeting our mandate, especially since he says we're meeting our mandate on the labor side. It made it clear to the markets that he gets their concerns. It was not forward guidance, but it was guidance in the sense of he does, he's telling them he does watch the inflation data and that the inflation data are not coming down fast enough. And if that continues, the Fed will have to act. He didn't say the words raise rates, but that's what the market's inferring.

34:30And that's why you're getting that reaction. And I think that's what he wanted to do today. And he seems to have been successful in walking back some of the concerns that investors have had. Can I just break in? He did mention hikes. He mentioned hikes in two capacities. What kind of hike we're talking about, whether it's potentially a great hike or whether potentially it was the other kind of hike that looks pretty inauspicious right now. It doesn't look like that's going to be happening today. Yeah, I feel bad for you guys out there because typically with a Jackson Hole shot like this, we're seeing some beautiful mountains in the background.

35:01That's Bloomberg's Lisa Bromowitz and Mike McKee braving the elements for us. And hopefully the sun comes out just a little bit later. Well, Jackson Hole is our focus, but also NVIDIA, because it's a day after NVIDIA's blockbuster earnings. The chip makers projected sales growth of 70 % for the next fiscal year, sending shares on their biggest rally since 2025. Shares now down about 1.8%. Let's get more with Bloomberg's Ryan Vestelica. Ryan, yesterday, just a massive day for NVIDIA and really the entire S &P 500 and NASDAQ 100, given NVIDIA's over$5 trillion market cap. We saw, in fact, more than$400 billion added to this company in a single day.

35:41The dust has settled a little bit. We're getting more and more analyst notes. What are you hearing from the street about that report? Well, I'm not hearing anything negative really at all about NVIDIA. I think they really blew things out of the water. And I heard a few people really compare this to the start of the AI era when NVIDIA was delivering these upside surprises of, you know, 50, 100 percent above what was expected. That's the kind of upside that we saw earlier this week. And people really weren't, it seems like, positioned for that kind of massive upside surprise, which is why we saw the stock move as dramatically as it did and really lift the whole AI ecosystem.

36:22system. Everyone sort of viewed this as just an absolute blowout and a real indication that AI spending is durable and persistent, really going out several quarters. Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the visibility here, Ryan, because my next question for you is really about how this changes the tone and also what the next catalyst is for people to understand the durability and sustainability of this spend. Yeah, so I think earlier, a few weeks ago, when we got results from all the hyperscalers. They really came out and said, we're really committed to all of this AI spending, a lot of really aggressive AI CapEx targets out there.

36:58NVIDIA just substantiated that point of view, saying spending looks pretty durable and it looks like it's going to be continuing for several quarters going out there. A lot of positive commentary all around. Again, it was hard to find too many people who found really negatives at all in this report. Bloomberg's Ryan Vestelica out there in Chicago. Check out Ryan's reporting on the terminal and at Bloomberg.com. Coming up, SK Hynix, South Korea's second most valuable company, is weighing closer ties with Japan's memory industry. We're going to have more on that next. This is Bloomberg Tech.

37:55Thank you.

38:16Is there anything that humans today can do? Yes. That will change the lives of the humans currently on the earth? Well, first of all, people who switch over are getting the benefit right away. But coming back to the point about the fossil fuel industry and our debt to them, there's an old saying that came from the king of Saudi Arabia years ago. The Stone Age didn't end because of a shortage of stones. It ended. Let's get back over to Jackson Hole, where we are now seeing Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh leading central bankers on their traditional walk. You can see the central bankers there. Not quite the sunshine that we're used to.

38:54Some umbrellas as well. There's the Fed chairman waving, along with his fellow central bankers, one of whom we'll hear from in just a few minutes. Bloomberg's Lisa Bromowitz and Mike McKee are joining us for more color on what we learned this morning. A lot of tradition out there, a lot of pomp and circumstance. Lisa, what exactly is going on right now? Right now, you see three central bankers, the Bank of England governor, as well as Tiff Macklin, who has the Bank of Canada, with, of course, Kevin Warsh, getting very wet because it is pouring here. And they are doing this historic perp walk, which Mike has a lot more context on in history.

39:31But they are doing it regardless of weather that is incredibly inauspicious, showing a display of unity to exploring all the angles of central banking. But, Mike, what is the history of this? I mean, this is sort of an interesting thing that we call the perp walk, typically reserved for less amenable circumstances. The Fed does not call it the perp walk. And they insist this is a totally spontaneous decision by the chair to take a walk. It all began about maybe 10 years ago, before they started televising the chairman's speech. But it became such a big thing for Wall Street that the chairman was speaking, that the still photographers for the newspapers and the TV people, we said, we need a picture of the chair.

40:10And so we talked to the Fed and said, can we do some sort of photo op? And they came up with this idea of doing the walk. And it's become tradition ever since. The chair grabs another central banker and they walk out and pretend they're looking at the scenery. This is the first time I can ever remember it raining like this. And I would point out that Andrew Bailey and Kevin Warsh are the only two people in Grand Teton National Park who are wearing suits and ties today. That's true. And so it is an unfortunate situation for the three of them. Am I not being served by my memory? But don't we often see folks wearing vests and fleece vests in situations like this rather than suits and ties?

40:56Well, that's what the rest of the audience is wearing. they're in jeans and casual shirts so it is a casual dress conference except that this chairman is a little more formal than we have seen in the past and so he's wearing his suit and tie and i talked to him about it last night and he said this is me and i'm not going to give it up uh tiff macklin at least not wearing a tie and only in a sport coat but he's a canadian outdoors kind of guy. You know, kudos to them for walking in the pouring rain and looking as though it wasn't pouring, but it actually increased the pace of precipitation as they were walking, Tim.

41:36All right. Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowitz and Michael McKee out there in Jackson, Wyoming. Thank you. We'll have more from Jackson Hole in just a few minutes. In the meantime, taking a look at these markets on this Jackson Hole Friday, we do see the S &P 500 higher by two tenths of one percent, up 16 points, 77.47 is what we're seeing there. The Nasdaq 100 under just a little bit of pressure, down ever so slightly. We can go ahead and round that to one-tenth of one percent lower. Nasdaq 100 at 29.632. Excuse me. Well, SK Hynix, it's the second, the largest memory maker in the world. It said it's exploring ways to develop closer ties with Japanese customers and suppliers in the memory industry amid the global AI hardware boom.

42:22Bloomberg's Mike Shepard joins us now with more. Mike, what did we learn from SK Hynix and this potential forge of stronger relationships? Well, what we heard yesterday was from their chief executive officer, who was in West Lafayette, Indiana, of all places, to break ground in a new advanced packaging facility that the company is planning. It's worth$4 billion. It will be the first of its kind here in the U.S., but as he was addressing reporters following the event, he cast his eyes globally, and he talked about the partnerships that he would like to forge with Japanese companies, specifically in the area of NAND flash memory.

43:03And this is a type of storage that allows you to preserve data even when the power is off, and it's becoming increasingly important as we hit this next phase of the AI boom, Tim, which is inference use, and that is actually taking trained models and putting them to work. And the idea is that you would have a model stored on the flash and then it would save some of the bandwidth necessary from the high bandwidth memory, which is what SK Hynix makes and which is what SK Hynix is putting into all his NVIDIA chips. And that has helped the company ride to that high valuation that we have been seeing lately.

43:43and and that connection to us has to do with higher prices for consumer products that use memory i mean look what we heard from apple just back in june that we're going to see higher prices on these iphones come september and even some higher prices on products that are already on the shelves as a result those higher prices from a consumer standpoint here to stay yes and and that is something he talked about in general he said that the memory uh squeeze that we are seeing is something that will last through 2030. This is a squeeze that he talked about last month when we sat down for an exclusive interview with him in New York on the day that SK Hynix made its debut in U.S.

44:24markets. You'll remember it raised$26.5 billion with a sale of U.S. traded shares. Those American depository receipts are up 9.3 percent just since last month. And that really is an indication of just how much demand there is, not only for their shares, but for their products. We're seeing a really historic shortage of memory, fueled in part by the AI push, no doubt. And that is having a ripple effect as well on the consumer space and on iPhones as well. We have heard Apple talk about and Microsoft talk about not only the need to raise prices, but also the complications it's posing for their supply lines.

45:05Bloomberg's Mike Shepard down there in Washington, D.C. Mike, thanks so much for that reporting. Do appreciate it. Well, let's get back out to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowitz is with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Hey, Lisa. Hey, how's it going, Jim? I am here with Andrew Bailey, who is the governor of the Bank of England. And just a little bit wet after walking on that walk. I can say it was actually really impressive. You guys seemed unfazed, but it just kept pouring on you. I'm just keen to take some of the rain back to Britain, although I think it has started raining.

45:35Britain now, but yes, we could take some back. But you had no mountains today, I'm afraid. No, no, no. They've been completely swallowed. And actually, Catherine Mann had the same approach, that maybe we could take some of this back to England. I just want to get your sense. What was your takeaway from Fed Chairman Kevin Walsh's speech? Was it something that was a message that you were hoping for or that you thought was appropriate? Well, look, first of all, obviously, it's a cardinal rule that we don't comment on each other's monetary policy. But let me say, I think in the broad position that Chair Walsh took, I thought it was a speech of real substance.

46:05I think he made some very important points about the framework of monetary policy. I think he made very important points about forward guidance and how he's thinking about it. So I commend it because I think it was a real speech, a real substance. He talked about forward guidance as being somewhat antiquated to a moment that's much more complicated and that it can be more confusing and complicate monetary policy. It might have led to the 2021 delay in hiking rates to combat inflation. Do you agree? Do you think that forward guidance has outlived some of its purpose, including reaction function to some degree?

46:38Well, I think we all wrestle with this issue. It's a really important issue. So the distinction I try to draw is this. Monetary policy, by its nature, is in the business of making policy forwards. We can't influence what inflation is going to be tomorrow. We can influence what inflation is going to be at points further into the future. So we have to obviously look to the future and we have to describe our policy in terms of the future. But, and Chair Walsh made this point, there's always uncertainty. There's even greater uncertainty, I would say, at the moment, particularly about the immediate situation.

47:09There is always uncertainty, and therefore our decisions are always conditional. I think the problem with forward guidance, and I think Chair Walsh put his finger on this, is that it tends towards making unconditional statements about policy. And I think that's the problem, and I think that's the danger, and I agree with him. Whether it's out of date, good question. I think the 2021 point to me as a veteran of that period is COVID was such a huge shock that we had to, in a sense. And there was a huge demand on us to sort of, in a sense, step forward and put the tools to work and to do everything we could to put the tools to work.

47:50We're not in that world now. And I don't think, you know, unconditional statements about policy work in that sense. But we have to describe what we're doing in terms of our views on the future, and certainly they sometimes are. It was notable to me that Kevin Warsh, Chair Warsh, talked about the components of PCE and that it was broad-based in the U.S. Is it as broad-based in the U.K., or is it a different inflationary backdrop due to AI, the investment there, and some of the growth backdrop that's very different for the U.S. and for the United Kingdom? Well, there is a different growth story.

48:26I, having said that, I think AI is critical here because we need to see faster growth in the UK. We need to see faster productivity growth. And I think AI and robotics are, you know, a critical source of that. I think the point that Chair Walsh made, which is very important, and I'll apply this to the UK, is he made a key point that, you know, he is looking to see whether, I think he used the word trend inflation, but, you know, underlying inflation is going back to target. and I think also over what period of time. And that's our issue as well. We are looking at the second round effects of the energy shocks.

49:03We're looking at the question, do we expect inflation to return to target over what time? And is that time and that trend sustainable and consistent with the inflation target? Now, in the UK situation at the moment, I would say so far, I think we're seeing quite subdued second round effects. I think we've seen a softening labor marketer for some time now. I think the second round effects are at the moment quite subdued. And that's why I've taken the view that I think we can watch this situation for the moment. But every meeting we have, we have to come back to it. How much does it force your hand if the Fed hikes interest rates, which right now the markets are expecting the Fed to do?

49:47Does it put pressure on you to match that in some capacity, partly because of the currency differentials, partly because of this race for capital, this competition for capital? Well, I think Chair Marshall made the point, whatever the Fed does, it will do it based on its remit and its responsibilities in respect of the U.S. And it will do it for reasons to do with the U.S. We will have to take decisions to do with the U.K. Now, of course, we have an open economy. We all have to see the effects of what goes on in the rest of the world on our situation and on our inflation outlook. But that's the way we do it.

50:20We don't say, well, they've done this, so we'll have to do it as well. We say, what's the overall impact of all of this on our inflation situation? One thing that the U.S. hadn't had to deal with as much as you was a divided committee. It was normal to get unanimous after unanimous after unanimous decision. And then we would get the BOE's decisions, and it would be, you know, four people voted for this. Three people said they were nuts. One person said, why am I even here? And then there was a big brawl. I'm just wondering, from your perspective, is there any advice you'd give Chair Kevin Warsh how to handle this sort of division that you get on the Central Bank Committee.

50:56Well, no, let me say, I think each of us obviously takes our own approach towards chairing the committees. I think it's important that it is a plurality, first of all. I mean, the whole reason we have nine members on the committee is to have a plurality, to have different views, to have deliberation, which is absolutely key to this process, that we sit in a room for are more hours than we care to remember and we deliberate and we reach a conclusion. Now I think it's important that we are transparent about that. So we've made some innovations really following the work that Ben Bernanke did for us.

51:31For instance we've introduced you know change to our sort of transparency in the sense of now having these paragraphs giving the individual views of each member. The monetary policy statement though is very clearly a view of the majority. I think that clarifies the division of views. But my view in our setting is I think it's very important that we're transparent and I encourage, as I say, this plurality to come out. And then I have to try and steer it to a conclusion. Well, a question for you. We were talking about how we're hearing from a lot of hawks. We heard from a lot of hawks today. Your own colleague, Catherine Mann, she describes herself as on the hawky side.

52:11We heard from earlier this morning, Beth Hammock of the Cleveland Fed, also talking about how it's just been too high for too long when it comes to inflation. Do you feel like you're in a minority saying, hold on a second, wait, we need to really watch this because we don't want to torpedo the economy before it has a chance to really right size? Well, look, I don't characterize myself as a hawk or dove. What I do think, and by the way, you know, the majority of our committee is, you know, has been in the same places. As I said, I think we are seeing, at the moment, relatively muted second-round inflation effects.

52:45But obviously, this is an evolving situation. I can't give you any, and this comes back to the forward guidance point, I can't give you any promise that that will continue. What I can do is, our job is to get inflation back to target. We will do that. We will consider not only the path back, but to say how long that path takes and is that consistent with price stability. How complicated is the job of central bankers globally, particularly from developed markets, given how much debt has been incurred over a pretty low rate period for a number of decades? Does that create a difficult issue with accusations of politicization, given that what the Fed or the Bank of England does has a pretty direct ramification on the overall budget of different governments?

53:35I think probably the most complicated area for that is balance sheet management you know we have been reducing our balance sheets we will have a decision in September I'm not going to prejudge what that decision is but you know my view is that it's important that you know we have a balance sheet that gives us scope to do whatever we need to do in the future but it is important also that we reduce the interest rate risk on our balance sheet so that's important I think This debt question, I think you have to put into the broader context of the challenges that we all face, I think, in developed economies.

54:08And there are very sort of big long-run challenges. So I think aging populations is a big long-run challenge. I think the turnaround of the post-Cold War defense expenditure dividend, if you like, it's now gone obviously into reverse, is a very big challenge. And these are challenges. They're not direct challenges for monetary policy, but they are obviously challenges for economic policy. And they are having an impact on fiscal policy and they are having an impact on debt levels. If you look at the long run projections, they tell you these are issues that we are going to have to seriously manage.

54:41Well, it really is notable that normally this is much more attended by global central bankers. But a lot of people are distracted because they have to go to Asheville for the G20 meeting, which you're heading off to tomorrow morning. It's sort of notable at this moment. It's rare for this to happen, for this meeting to be so close to that meeting, both in location as well as in timing. But it sort of indicates the moment that we're in. And really this idea that the finance picture, the fiscal backdrop, can't be extricated as cleanly from monetary policy as it could be, say, 20 years ago. We've got a slightly different cycle this year.

55:15I mean, normally we have the G20 meetings in February and July, whereas this year we're having it end of August. So that's caused the sort of, look, in some ways this works quite well because we're in the U.S. So, you know, here we are. So, you know, it cuts down on the extensive travel that we do. I wouldn't really interpret it any more strongly than that, really, in terms of the meetings. Do you think that in the U.K., just switching gears a bit, in the U.S., people are talking about AI being the holy grail of productivity. You were touching on this and saying that you hoped that it would be the case.

55:44Do you see AI as being more disinflationary than inflationary in the United Kingdom? Jim, do you see it sort of being inflationary in the short term to the same degree that it's being seen in the United States? So I think the interesting question there is there will be both demand shocks and supply shocks from AI. I mean, if you look back in, an economic historian in me always comes out at this point, I'm sorry. If you look back at general purpose technology innovations in the past, actually they don't have the same pattern. But in terms of the sequencing of shocks, if we get the demand shocks ahead of the supply shocks, then you will get pressure on inflation upwards.

56:23And of course, those can come through in terms of asset markets. If you get the supply shocks first, you'll get the opposite. Well, we've got more from Jackson Hole next on Bloomberg after the break. Thank you so much, Governor Andrew Bailey. Really appreciate it. This is Bloomberg.

56:48creators, investors, and entrepreneurs shaping what's next in Hollywood, music, sports, and gaming. We'll talk about the biggest stories in media, like the merger of Paramount and Warner Brothers, the booming live events business, and the potential impact of AI. I'm Lucas Shaw, and I'll be hosting Bloomberg Screen Time in Los Angeles, September 30th and October 1st. Join us and request your invitation today at bloomberglive.com slash screen time slash radio.