Investors Await Nvidia’s Earnings, Anthropic Loosens Safety Policy

25 Feb 2026 · 44 min · 26 chapters

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Bloomberg Tech Podcast Episode Summary

Episode Title

Investors Await Nvidia’s Earnings, Anthropic Loosens Safety Policy

Hosts

  • Caroline Hyde
  • Ed Ludlow

Episode Overview In this episode of Bloomberg Tech, hosts Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow discuss critical developments in the tech world, including anticipated earnings from Nvidia, a shift in Anthropic’s safety policies, and insights from Sequoia partner Alfred Lin on AI's impact on financial services.

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Key Topics Covered

  1. Nvidia's Earnings Anticipation
  2. Market Sentiment
  3. Investors are keenly awaiting Nvidia's earnings report, with expectations of around $66 billion for the quarter, largely driven by data center growth.
  4. The stock price saw an increase of 1.8% leading up to the earnings release.
  5. Historical Context
  6. Nvidia's stock has historically shown muted reactions post-earnings, falling in four out of the last six sessions despite strong earnings.
  7. Analyst Insights
  8. Discussion with Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst Kunjan Subhani on expectations for mid to high single-digit growth.
  9. Key metrics to look for include guidance on future demand and potential supply chain bottlenecks.
  1. Anthropic's Policy Changes
  2. Safety Policy Relaxation
  3. Anthropic has loosened its foundational safety policy amid pressure from the U.S. Defense Department, which has threatened to invoke a Cold War-era law if compliance is not met.
  4. Industry Context
  5. The company is responding to rapidly changing AI dynamics and competition with other major players like OpenAI and Google.
  6. Public Perception
  7. There are concerns regarding potential mass surveillance and autonomous weapons use, which Anthropic has sought to mitigate.
  1. AI's Impact on Financial Services
  2. Guest Insights
  3. Sequoia partner Alfred Lin discusses AI's transformative potential within the financial services sector alongside Michael Manipat, CEO of Rowspace.
  4. Rowspace aims to help financial firms leverage their own data for better decision-making by utilizing AI.
  1. Broader Market Dynamics
  2. Current Market Trends
  3. The episode also touches on the NASDAQ's rise by over 1% and the performance of Bitcoin, which is up by more than 5%.
  4. Investor Sentiment & AI Trade Risks
  5. Marta Norton of Empower highlights that a breakdown in the AI-driven market could pose risks to equities, urging investors to consider longer-term strategies amid the volatility.
  1. Upcoming Earnings and Predictions
  2. Earnings Expectations
  3. Key earnings reports are anticipated from multiple companies including Salesforce, Snowflake, and the implications of these for market sentiment.
  4. Predictions of AI Integration
  5. Insight into how these companies will need to navigate concerns about AI's role and potential disruption in their respective industries.

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Key Takeaways

  • Nvidia's Upcoming Earnings: A crucial moment for investors focusing on AI market impacts; historical performance suggests caution in expectations.
  • Anthropic's Safety Policy Shift: Reflects a broader industry trend of balancing safety concerns with competitive pressures.
  • AI's Role in Financial Services: The narrative surrounding AI's potential to transform industries continues to evolve, with significant opportunities for companies that adapt effectively.
  • Market Sentiment: Awareness of broader economic dynamics, including the effects of AI on legacy sectors, will influence investor strategies moving forward.

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Conclusion The episode encapsulates the complex interplay between technological advancements in AI and real-world business implications, highlighting the need for strategic foresight amid rapidly evolving market conditions. The insights from industry experts provide a roadmap for navigating the uncertain landscape of tech investments.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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NVIDIA Earnings Expectations

1:00 to 2:16

Discussion on investor expectations and significance of NVIDIA's upcoming earnings.

“Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.”

Analyzing Market Reactions to NVIDIA

2:17 to 3:52

Exploration of past earnings reactions and market expectations for NVIDIA's performance.

“and the expectation is this is a$66 billion quarter, most of that coming from data center.”

Insights on AI Market from Marta Norton

3:53 to 5:00

Marta Norton discusses risks and opportunities in AI investment concerning NVIDIA.

“So the concerns of the hiccups in manufacturing there are much less.”

The Impact of AI on Future Investments

5:01 to 7:26

A detailed conversation on how AI advancements influence investor confidence and market dynamics.

“Look, investors are looking to NVIDIA for some sort of fresh clues on the AI market's impact.”

Exploring Dystopian Futures with AI

7:27 to 9:06

Discussion on the dystopian narratives surrounding AI and potential market implications.

“But I think the real question is, what can slow the disruption or the fear investors have around disruption?”

NASA's Artemis II and Tech Discourse

9:07 to 10:25

Live updates on NASA's Artemis II mission and its connection to tech discussions.

“We've seen the Citrini research just cause shockwaves through the market as some have labeled it sort of basically completely dystopian, made up.”

President Trump's State of the Union Address Analysis

10:26 to 12:48

In-depth analysis of key points from Trump's State of the Union regarding tech and economy.

“NASA is rolling the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft for Artemis II off the launch pad and back to the hangar at the agency's Kennedy Space Center in Florida.”

Anthropic's Policy Changes in AI

12:49 to 14:02

Discussion on Anthropic's adjustments to its safety policy amid evolving AI landscape.

“with companies like Microsoft and Alphabet about signing on to these pledges.”

U.S.-China Economic Tensions

14:02 to 14:59

Discussing the absence of U.S.-China dialogue in recent political addresses.

“Of course, front and center in that chamber were some of those Supreme Court justices that struck down President Trump's broad-based IEPA tariffs.”

Anthropic's Safety Policy Adjustments

14:59 to 17:00

Exploring how Anthropic is adapting its safety policy amidst government pressures.

“Now this is after the Pentagon threatened to invoke a Cold War era law to compel Anthropic to allow the U.S.”
Show all 26 chapters

Pentagon's Demand for AI Compliance

17:00 to 17:53

Details on the Pentagon's requirements for Anthropic and potential consequences.

“met with Secretary Hegsef, I believe, yesterday, Tuesday.”

Circle's Earnings Insights with CEO Jeremy Allaire

18:48 to 21:35

Analyzing Circle's earnings and the growing adoption of stablecoins.

“From Brussels, I'm following the politics, policy and the people shaping the European Union right now.”

Future Plans for Circle's Business Model

21:35 to 24:16

Discussion on Circle's business diversification and growth strategies.

“different market, which is certainly more speculative about digital assets more broadly.”

Warner Brothers and Paramount's Earnings Discussion

24:16 to 28:00

Examining the competitive landscape in media with Warner Brothers and Paramount.

“And that helped our margin as well in the quarter.”

Paramount's Potential Victory and TV Dynamics

28:00 to 28:28

Discussion on Paramount's potential win and its impact on television dynamics.

“And they're going to have, you know, even more to deal with with television.”

Earnings Preview: Salesforce and Snowflake

28:28 to 29:59

Preview of earnings reports for Salesforce and Snowflake amid market fears.

“Investors have been dumping software stocks amid the AI scare trade.”

CEO Insights on Software's Future

29:59 to 30:18

Discussion on how CEOs are addressing fears of AI disruption in software.

Wave's Ambitious Robo-Taxi Plans

30:18 to 31:53

Interview with Wave's CEO about mass-producing robo-taxis and competition.

“How do you mass manufacture these robotaxis?”

Introduction to Roseface's AI Solutions

33:30 to 35:50

Discussion on the launch of Roseface and its AI technology for financial services.

“Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.”

Investment Insights from Sequoia

35:50 to 37:00

Sequoia partner discusses investment strategies and the importance of data.

“You know, why you decided to make this particular investment and your sort of thesis around it.”

Authentic AI and Human Roles in Finance

37:00 to 39:40

Discussion on the future of AI in finance and the importance of human involvement.

“I spoke to Thrive Capital before, and they've basically built this themselves using all their own internal emails, chains, data.”

Roseface's Growth and Operational Challenges

39:40 to 41:06

Exploration of Roseface's growth plans and the challenges they face.

“And we want the human to be in the loop to make the decisions on our behalf.”

Market Outlook and IPO Perspectives

41:06 to 42:04

Discussion on market outlook and potential IPOs for various companies.

“We have to deploy securely in our customers' environment, so we keep the data where it is.”

Optimism in Software Companies Amid Disruption

42:04 to 43:46

Discussion on the challenges and potential of companies like Snowflake in the AI era.

“And we don't really think about the companies that are exiting or staying private.”

Anticipation for NVIDIA's Earnings Release

43:47 to 44:48

Analyzing expectations for NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report and investor sentiment.

“Coming up, all eyes are on Jensen and NVIDIA and its earnings.”

NVIDIA's Performance and Market Sentiment

44:49 to 46:40

Insights on NVIDIA's stock performance and market expectations leading to the earnings call.

“You've covered this company for a really long time.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:01Caroline Hyde:The news doesn't stop on the weekends.

0:03Michael Manapat:Context changes constantly. And now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all.

0:09Alfred Lin:Hi, I'm David Gurra. Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg This Weekend.

0:13Michael Manapat:I'm Christina Ruffini. We'll bring you the latest headlines, in-depth analysis and big interviews. All the stories that hit home on your days off. And I'm Lisa Mateo. Watch and listen to Bloomberg This Weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people and culture.

0:29Alfred Lin:On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened in the markets and the world.

0:35Michael Manapat:Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists, and key political figures to prepare you for the week ahead. Join us as soon as you wake up and bring us with you wherever your weekend plans take you.

0:45Caroline Hyde:Watch us on Bloomberg Television, listen on Bloomberg Radio, stream the show live on the Bloomberg Business app, or listen to the podcast.

0:52Michael Manapat:That's Bloomberg this weekend, Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on February 28th. Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television, Radio, and wherever you get your podcasts.

1:09Michael Manapat:Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.

1:19Michael Manapat:Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.

1:29Ed Ludlow:This is Bloomberg Tech coming up. All eyes on NVIDIA. After the closing bell today, we'll discuss investor expectations and a lot more.

1:37Michael Manapat:Plus, Anthropic loosens its central safety policy once core to its mission amid a growing dispute with the U.S. Defense Department over guardrails.

1:45Ed Ludlow:And Sequoia partner Alfred Lin joins us with the CEO of his new portfolio company, RoeSpaces, Michael Manipat. Later this hour.

1:52Michael Manapat:From private markets, we go back to the public markets that get a little bit of a reprieve today. We're up more than a percentage point on the Nasdaq 100. And this is as we anticipate NVIDIA. This is as we, of course, digest what was said at the State of the Union. Rose-tinted glasses is some of the viewpoint there. Bitcoin, though, up more than 5%, having its best day since February the 6th. What are you looking at?

2:13Ed Ludlow:I'm looking at NVIDIA. We are anticipating its earnings. It is a high-stake earnings moment for markets more broadly. And the stock's up 1.8 % going into it. Again, this is after the closing bell. and the expectation is this is a$66 billion quarter, most of that coming from data center. We're bracing because the options market is telling us that there'll be a 5 % swing in either direction. But if you look back at the last eight quarters, actually the reaction is typically pretty muted, but NVIDIA has fallen in at least four out of the last six post earnings sessions. And then there's the guidance, so to speak.

2:49Ed Ludlow:Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst Kunjan and Tavani joins us with what to expect. In your preview, we think about the April quarter, the current period and how that's going to go. And actually, what you reflect on is if you go back to CES that first week of January, they kind of told us how it's going. What are the metrics you're looking for? Yeah, I mean, look, we again expect them to beat by mid-single to high-single digits.

3:10Alfred Lin:But as you said, stock has not done much since CES because most of that goodness has already been digested and priced in. So investors are waiting for that next big thing, which I don't think he will drop today because remember GTC is around the corner so he might want to save it for that. We are looking for an upside to that$500 billion pipeline for 2026 and any signals he can give us regarding demand spilling into 2027. So that will be key for investors.

3:38Michael Manapat:Can you tell us about how much we need to understand in terms of any potential bottlenecks with Rubin, how we're seeing manufacturing progress? Is there anything he can do to alleviate concerns there?

3:47Alfred Lin:I think he gave a lot more at CES, which generally he does not, saves it for GTC about Vera Rubin. So the concerns of the hiccups in manufacturing there are much less. The concerns are more about, you know, they cannot deliver a lot of upside given the supply constraints, whether it's from TSMC, whether it's from packaging, whether it's from memory.

4:04Ed Ludlow:So at this point, it will be more of a smooth sailing. There is this part where the story of technology marries with their financials, and that's probably in margins, right? Margins are at 75 % right now. One of the things you spotted last quarter, right, was the increasing proportion of content that NVIDIA holds in the server design. Used to be just the GPU, so much more now. Is that where the pressure is, like 75 % margin maintaining that?

4:32Alfred Lin:Yeah, the pressure is there, but they've handsomely been able to do that, surprising to a lot of us. Remember, now they're adding more content. the deal with meta regarding the CPU, right? That also will be a significantly high margin product when you think of CPUs. So they're keeping on adding these small sockets around the GPUs, which don't bring in significant billions of dollars of revenue compared to the GPU, but add a lot to the margin, helping that pressure which is on the GPU margin.

4:57Michael Manapat:Kunjan Subhani, it's going to be a busy day. Thank you for joining us at Bloomberg Intelligence. Look, investors are looking to NVIDIA for some sort of fresh clues on the AI market's impact. Our next guest warns, the biggest risk to equities is On a breakdown in the AI trade, Marta Norton, Chief Investment Strategist at Empower, saying that if there's clear evidence that AI won't be as transformative as expected, it could undermine a major growth engine for both the U.S. economy and equity markets. But at the moment, Marta, everyone's worrying that it's too effective. The bullishness has become bearishness.

5:27Michael Manapat:Where do you sit on that? I mean, it feels as though when we look at AI, everything is a loser. Investors have lost confidence in the epicenter of the AI trade, the hyperscalers, NVIDIA, Meta. And at the same time, they're questioning how effective and how profound AI will be in disrupting all these other industries. So we're kind of in a contradictory phase when it comes to AI at the moment. I do think this opens up opportunity. I think it opens up opportunity among the AI A-list names. And I also think it opens up opportunity in some of these disrupted industries. When you say opportunity, you mean start to catch the falling knife, start to perhaps add to your investments in companies that are beaten up?

6:12Michael Manapat:Yes, absolutely. And, you know, the falling knife narrative is especially important because it is a bit dangerous. We are looking at a transformative technology and we don't exactly understand what that terminal value looks like because we don't understand how these business models will completely evolve. But I think if we have a base case expectation that we're seeing AI integration, then I think you can think of some of these companies as maybe survivors or even thrivers.

6:41Ed Ludlow:I'm reading our markets wrap on Bloomberg and they're painting a picture where if NVIDIA earnings are really strong, that will carry the market for the rest of the week and maybe further field. It will be good, let's say, for the NASDAQ 100. But if they are too strong, then we'll go back to the idea that AI is coming for software, as an example. You know, there is a world where NVIDIA's earnings are too good, and we end up with the same result, which is anxiety about legacy sectors. Do you kind of buy that argument?

7:13Michael Manapat:Well, in terms of the day-to-day price movement with how investors are going to react to NVIDIA, I think that's anyone's call. I do think there's a thread-the-needle type of environment where they have to be just right, this Goldilocks scenario. But I think the real question is, what can slow the disruption or the fear investors have around disruption? And I guess I can't point to an immediate catalyst that would make investors say, hey, all is well with a lot of these stocks, because what we're worrying about is not the here and now. It's several years out. And so that's why I think when you're looking at these opportunities, we really do have to take a longer-term mindset.

7:51Ed Ludlow:Quite rightly, when the team met this morning, we were like, there are many other earnings going on at the same time. And, you know, you reflect on this in your notes, right? Earnings have been strong, generally speaking. They've met expectations. But in that environment, sometimes that still isn't enough. What are you learning in aggregate in this earnings season for tech?

8:14Michael Manapat:Well, I mean, if we're looking broadly speaking, just looking at the economy overall, we've seen strong earnings, strong revenue growth. I think that's a signal of fundamental health. I think we see that in technology as well. I think we see that with the hyperscalers. What I've been amazed by, or maybe not amazed by, but I think it's noteworthy, is that despite all the investor jitters around the massive spending that we're seeing, the companies are not slowing down. Those jitters are not disrupting their plans. In fact, they increase estimates relative to analyst expectations for 2026 in terms of what they're going to spend on CapEx.

8:50Michael Manapat:And so I think as much as we might have jitters around this, this AI train is continuing to steam forward. Steaming forward, Marta, what we've seen a lot of steam on is kind of AI Duma or dystopia. We've seen a lot of notes put out. Look, some of them by the very leaders of Anthropic, for example, talk about the adolescence of technology. We've seen the Citrini research just cause shockwaves through the market as some have labeled it sort of basically completely dystopian, made up. But in other ways, some people put some real credence to potentially double-digit unemployment due to rapid agentic adoption.

9:25Michael Manapat:How are you thinking about it? I think those notes are really powerful and a really valuable thought exercise. And they're tapping into, obviously, based on a market action, they're tapping into what investors really fear is that worst-case scenario. We hear it time and time again, that AI is going to destroy the labor market. And so these notes are valuable in the sense that they put real color, they paint a real picture to what that looks like. But I think what we have to remember is none of us know the future perfectly. And that's one potential outcome. But there's a whole range of different outcomes, some of which are a lot more positive than what these notes have suggested.

10:05Michael Manapat:And so I think as we invest, we can now say, OK, now these valuations are beginning to reflect some of these more dystopian outcomes. And there is also positive outcomes that can occur. And so that makes me as an investor get a little bit more excited about putting money to work.

10:21Ed Ludlow:Marda Norton of Empower, thank you very much. Okay, take a look at these live pictures. NASA is rolling the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft for Artemis II off the launch pad and back to the hangar at the agency's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. It's only four miles away, But the trek is expected to take up to 12 hours. You're going to have to take my word for it. But those are live pictures of something that's moving at 0.33 miles per hour. When it gets there, the team can finally start troubleshooting. The rocket's up a stage issue. And from there, we wait for NASA to confirm the next potential launch window.

10:59Ed Ludlow:Caro.

11:00Michael Manapat:Fascinating, Ed. Thank you. Meanwhile, coming up, look, we're going to be breaking down President Trump's State of the Union address. What was said, what wasn't said when it comes to tech. This is Bloomberg Tech.

11:22Caroline Hyde:We're telling the major tech companies that they have the obligation to provide for their own power needs. They can build their own power plants as part of their factory so that no one's prices will go up. And in many cases, prices of electricity will go down for the community.

11:39Ed Ludlow:That was President Trump during his State of the Union address saying his administration told major tech companies to build their own power plants for their data centers. An announcement that comes amid growing opposition to data center projects around the country blamed for a jump in electricity prices. Bloomberg TV's Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall joins us now. We knew that this would be about the economy and we were looking for lines in the president's speech and address that were related to AI. That was probably the clearest. What else do we need to know?

12:12Alfred Lin:Definitely, Ed, that was the clearest, particularly because it goes back to the issue of affordability, which really seemed to define President Trump's comments last night, because this push to have big tech companies build their own power plants ties back to the idea that the president wants to see those electricity costs come down for American consumers. Now, as you mentioned, we were expecting this announcement from the president, Bloomberg News reporting that he would roll out what's being called a rate payer protection pledge, though he didn't necessarily outline additional details, including how this would be implemented or enforced.

12:44Alfred Lin:It is our understanding this would be a non-binding pact. Though people familiar with the matter do tell us here at Bloomberg News that the White House is in active discussions with companies like Microsoft and Alphabet about signing on to these pledges. We very likely could see a more formalized effort announced by the White House next month amid reports that there will be a formal White House event here where I am, as the administration is trying to show some more forward progress. We know, for example, officials had called just last month for the nation's largest power grid operator, PJM, to host an emergency power auction specifically for these big tech companies, because as we head into the midterms, it is all about affordability.

13:25Alfred Lin:And Ed and Caroline, that's really why we saw President Trump yesterday focus more on those domestic issues set up foreign policy issues, despite those really being the ones to dominate the headlines

13:35Michael Manapat:here in Washington in recent weeks. I mean, what's been dominating the minds of many big tech CEOs and leaders has been tariffs as well, Tyler. Do we get any instinct on where that's going and what that means for the cost of living as well? Right, Caroline.

Read the full transcript

13:48Alfred Lin:I mean, President Trump really did double down on his tariff plans last night. In fact, he threatened our trading partners with additional levies. if anyone looks to rearrange or renegotiate the trade frameworks that are already in place. Of course, front and center in that chamber were some of those Supreme Court justices that struck down President Trump's broad-based IEPA tariffs. Notably, though, if you go through the transcript, President Trump did not directly address China, which is pretty interesting considering that U.S.-China tensions, particularly around trade, have really dominated this past year and the Trump administration's policies.

14:24Alfred Lin:In fact, it marked the first time in nearly two decades that a president did not directly address U.S. economic ties with China in their State of the Union address. Ed and Caroline were looking ahead, of course, to a few weeks in April when President Trump will sit down face to face with Chinese President Xi Jinping in China. top of mind is going to be those trade negotiations the USTR Jameson Greer said on Bloomberg television earlier today that IEPA ruling will not change our tariff calculus.

14:54Michael Manapat:Tyler Kendall, thank you so much for the breakdown there following the State of the Union. Now sticking with Washington, Anthropic has loosened its central safety policy to keep pace in a rapidly changing field. Now this is after the Pentagon threatened to invoke a Cold War era law to compel Anthropic to allow the U.S. military to use the company's technology if it failed to comply with the government's terms, according to sources. Primo Senior Tech Editor Mike Shepard joins us. You go into the blog that Anthropik has pointed out, and yes, they talk about some of the steps that are already being taken in terms of safety, some of the achievements they've already made, but they really highlight that despite rapid advancements in AI capabilities in the last three years, government action in AI safety has been slow.

15:37Michael Manapat:Is that what they're trying to call out here?

15:40Caroline Hyde:You know, Carol, that is one thing they're trying to call out, but they are also acknowledging the stiff competition that they face in the AI space globally. They are competing with OpenAI, XAI, and of course with Google for a piece of what Martha Norton was also acknowledging as a massive competitive landscape. There is so much business to be done out there, and we have seen industry after industry shaken by the prospect of some of these new tools from Anthropic and from other providers that could really change the way business is done and how people actually do their work from day to day. So there is both that question, but then also the one that you zeroed in on, and that is that they are not seeing any traction at the federal level when it comes to discussion of these safety-oriented issues.

16:26Caroline Hyde:And, of course, that's the conversation coming up now at the Pentagon. The company is insisting that it will not be relaxing those two standards, that it doesn't want mass surveillance of Americans via the Pentagon through its technology or the fully autonomous use of its technology in weapons. But, again, this relaxation of that safety principle when it comes to competition is a significant and worthy change to note here.

16:57Ed Ludlow:Take us inside the room. We reported that Anthropic CEO Dario Amadei met with Secretary Hegsef, I believe, yesterday, Tuesday. There is a deadline of Friday from the Pentagon's perspective, but in our reporting, Anthropic has conditions of its own that it is putting to the Pentagon quickly.

17:17Caroline Hyde:Yes, Anthropic has set those conditions as no mass surveillance and no use of its technology and fully autonomous targeting. And now those conditions, it's unclear at what point they will yield. The Pentagon says, look, you don't need those conditions. We will abide by the law. And we do not want, and this is according to the Pentagon's own new AI acceleration strategy released last month, they don't want companies to attach asterisks or conditions on the use of technology by the Pentagon if they are doing business with the government. And they have threatened the company with some dire consequences.

17:53Caroline Hyde:One is that it would use the Defense Production Act to simply, in essence, impound the technology and use it over Anthropik's objections. Or, failing that, they would actually declare Anthropik a supply chain risk. And that would mean that vendors with the Pentagon would have to certify that they are not using Anthropik's technology. And that would pose a business risk to Dariyamadeh and his business.

18:15Ed Ludlow:Bloomberg's Mike Shepard. Thank you very much. Now, coming up on the show, we're going to speak with Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire, fresh off the company's earnings call. This is Bloomberg Tech.

18:47Alfred Lin:early so the news is fresh, not recycled, and so you know what actually matters as the day gets going. From Brussels, I'm following the politics, policy and the people shaping the European Union right now. And from London, I'm looking at what all that means for markets, money and the wider economy. We've got reporters across Europe and around the globe feeding in as stories break. So whether it's geopolitics, energy, tech or markets, you're hearing it while it happens. It's smart, calm and to the point And it fits into your morning You can find new episodes of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast by 7am in Dublin or 8am in Brussels, Berlin and Paris On Apple, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts

19:37Michael Manapat:Just checking on shares of Circle on the day having their best since June 2025, we're up 23 % after the company reported fourth quarter results that topped expectations. Stablecoin issuer posted both profit and revenue growth, beating analyst estimates as digital asset activity really picked up in the late in the year. Here with more on the results and the outlook ahead of Circle CEO, Jeremy Allaire. Jeremy, what's so interesting is the moon music around crypto has been pretty dire in the fourth quarter, fiscal fourth quarter. But have people been turning and using Stablecoin even more? adoption been growing because of this sort of volatility of people in exiting Bitcoin and wanting to hold USDC instead?

20:17Caroline Hyde:Well, thanks for having me on. And I would sort of start by just saying, you know, if you look at the arc of 2025 and the success of, you know, legislative initiatives like the Genius Act, the awareness around stable coins as a key infrastructure that can be used in the financial system, in payments, in capital markets, and the incredible growth, which are obviously showing up in our full year and Q4 numbers. What we've seen in some respects is stable coins as a technology, as a use case, decoupling from digital asset markets or decoupling from just speculating on the price of Bitcoin or things like that.

20:59Caroline Hyde:And that's something that we've believe for a very long time is that blockchains, stablecoins, and now as we see this kind of collision of this with agentic capabilities and agentic computing are creating utility for businesses and financial institutions and households. And that's driving this shift. And so I think the market is just starting to understand there are internet, financial platform and infrastructure companies that are building for this new economic system that's built around real world money like USDC and blockchain technology. And then there's a different market, which is certainly more speculative about digital assets more broadly.

21:41Michael Manapat:Jeremy, that's so interesting because we've just had the news reporting that maybe Meta's back on thinking about how adoption of stable coins is going to work within its own platform. Talk to us about how you're diversifying, because yes, you can do a lot with stable coins and indeed putting money into U.S. Treasury assets. But where else for the business now?

22:00Caroline Hyde:Well, a couple of things. I think the first is that our core business is thriving. USDC grew 72 percent year on year. The amount of transactions happening in Q4 reached nearly 12 trillion. That's up around 250 percent year on year. Our market share has grown. We're nearly 50 % of all stablecoin transactions happening in the world. And it's spreading, meaning it's the Intuits of the world. It's the JP Morgans of the world. It's the visas of the world. It's payroll companies. So many companies that are there. So that is strong and growing. And we're still in the early stages of that. But we see the opportunity as much larger.

22:45Caroline Hyde:And so for us, to your question, we're kind of going down the stack by building operating systems for this new economic system, operating systems that can support agentic applications, broader financial applications through ARK. We're going up the stack by building applications that are useful to any financial institution that wants to plug into this and make this kind of the pipes for how they move money around the world.

23:10Ed Ludlow:Can you be a little bit more granular? You talked about overachievement, right, in new revenue streams. Where and how did you achieve that?

23:18Caroline Hyde:Yeah, so specifically in new revenue streams, we saw other revenue, which includes subscriptions and services revenue, includes transaction revenue. You know, these were completely new lines of business a year ago in Q4 of 24. They grew 15x to$37 million of revenue in the quarter. And we've also given some guidance around 2026. We see them growing another 50 percent. And so this includes product and partnership work that we do to take the stablecoin network technology we have and make it available through partnerships across more and more blockchain networks. This includes transaction fees that are charged for different services that we offer.

24:04Caroline Hyde:And so there's a mixture of new revenue streams in there. And we have not really yet turned on revenue from major platforms like CPN and ARK yet. But we're encouraged by that growth. And that helped our margin as well in the quarter.

24:21Ed Ludlow:All right, Jeremy Allaire of Circle, thank you very much. Again, the stock really pushing higher, 25 % on track for its best day since June when it IPO'd last year. Coming up, we're going to have details of Paramount's improved offer for Warner Brothers as both companies actually prepare to release their earnings. A lot more to discuss. It is halftime and this is Bloomberg Tech.

24:54Ed Ludlow:Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. Let's take a look at shares of Warner Brothers Discovery, Paramount Skydance and Netflix. Warner Brothers Discovery soft of half percentage point, the other two higher. Netflix up 5%. Why? The Warner Brothers board said that Paramount Skydance's new$31 per share offer may be a better deal than its existing agreement with Netflix, but regulatory hurdles for both bids remain. Paramount is seen by some to have the upper hand because of the family's ties to President Trump. Last night at the State of the Union address, Paramount CEO David Ellison was a guest of Trump ally, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham.

25:34Ed Ludlow:And I guess carry up 5 % on Netflix because, remember, quite a large portion of the investor base think that Netflix at this juncture should walk away.

25:41Michael Manapat:And they get a nice bit of money if they do, potentially, being financed by that, Mr. Ellison. Let's move away from the politics of it all, but get into the real details of the offer. Bluebird Media reporter Hannah Minner is with us. the saga continues. And the May is a question mark here. Basically,$31 is good enough to reopen those negotiations that got so intense that at midnight they were being forced to put down the phone.

26:04Alfred Lin:Yeah. And just to be clear, the Warner Brothers board has not called this new offer superior. It has just met the threshold for further talks. If they do end up backing the offer, then Netflix has four days to respond.

26:18Ed Ludlow:We are in a slightly unusual situation where both Warner Brothers Discovery and Paramount Skydance will report earnings. And I guess we'll kind of learn how it's going for both. Paramount of particular interest, Sunday and Night of the Seven Kingdoms, that's what I was doing on my couch. It's one example of where it's going well, maybe. What do we expect to hear about the health of the business pre any merger?

26:43Alfred Lin:Yeah. I mean, for Paramount, which we'll hear about their earnings later today, You know, we're expecting a strong finish for 2025. We're also looking to hear more about their box office plans. They've made this commitment to produce 15 films a year and increase that output. For Warner Brothers, you know, they've had some content success. I'm also a fan of A Night of the Seven Kingdoms. Right. But again, for both companies, you know, we've seen cable advertising really decrease. You know, there's still a lot of talk about how cable television is dying. So, you know, those are factors that are going to come up on both earnings calls.

27:27Michael Manapat:What's interesting is if we're going back to the actual deal part of all of this, there are a lot of sweeteners coming from Paramount Skydance, like the ticking fee if the regulators don't approve it quickly enough. But also, if the cable assets do deteriorate, they can't walk away from it. How are you seeing some of the nuance in the dealmaking here?

27:44Alfred Lin:Yeah, well, it's really interesting with Netflix. You know, they only want the streaming and studios business. And Warner Brothers would move forward with spinning off its cable channels like CNN, TNT into a separate company. And Netflix would just, you know, get those really strong assets. If Paramount wins, they get everything. And they're going to have, you know, even more to deal with with television. They're going to have CNN under the same roof as CBS. and it'll be really interesting to see how that plays out, how they balance those things and really face the obstacles that are within cable television right now.

28:22Ed Ludlow:Bloomberg's Hannah Miller, thank you very much. Elsewhere in earnings, Snowflake and Salesforce report after the bell. Investors have been dumping software stocks amid the AI scare trade. Let's get the preview. Bloomberg's Brody Ford, who covers both companies. I mean, in Salesforce's case, the expectation is like top line growth 12%, which is pretty good compared to prior quarters, it takes into account the Informatica acquisition, right? So under the hood, what's the story that you're kind of looking for with Salesforce?

28:50Alfred Lin:Yeah, if you ask most investors, that number doesn't look so good because at first you think, wow, that growth rate went up, but it's mostly the inorganic. And that's what everybody's always said with Salesforce, that the core businesses are slowing down. And that's the fear right now. It's a similar story for both Salesforce and Snowflake in that the big question is, are there new AI products adding new revenue? Thus far, it's not been super clear that there's an acceleration happening there. And so that's pretty much all people want to hear at this point.

29:23Michael Manapat:How much can they disprove a negative here? What sort of line of attack, really, are the CEOs going to take here to try and fend off the idea that AI is coming for them?

29:37Alfred Lin:We've seen CEOs getting pretty creative in their earnings call scripts the last couple of earnings. You know, last night at Workday, he kind of gave some colorful lines about how people think Anthropik is going to replace us, but actually Anthropik uses our software. And so Mark Benioff tonight, certainly I would expect some zingers about how software isn't dead. So far, Wall Street has not been convinced, no matter how colorful the language.

30:03Michael Manapat:Always love a bit of colorful language. You have lots of it. Brody Ford, we appreciate you. Thank you.

30:07Alfred Lin:Thank you.

30:08Michael Manapat:Switching gears, the CEO of UK self-driving company Wave, see what we did there, has been telling Bloomberg Tech Europe's Tom McKenzie about its plans to mass-produce robo-taxis and to roll Wave is going to play in that market. Take a listen.

30:21Caroline Hyde:How do you mass manufacture these robotaxis? I mean, again, we're not retrofitting, which is capital-intensive and slow. We've got a high-margin software licensing business that works with the very largest manufacturers in the world. And so I think these are the questions to be asking about how this technology scales, because the KPIs are going to come. The rate that our AI is learning and increasing in performance is only accelerating with the more deployment experience. And to your point, this is a competition about which technology stack works best. and you're throwing shade on Waymo with that last answer.

30:52Caroline Hyde:How much of a competitive threat is Waymo? They start testing later this year and a rollout later this year in London. Well, I think competition is healthy and we're really excited to see our products go head to head. I think it's going to be wonderful for consumers in our industry, but isn't that an amazing spot to be in after a decade of building this that now we have some viable approaches here? So you've also made clear that this is a software-first approach. We've seen a massive sell-off in software stocks as a result of the disruption from AI. Has that led to any questioning that that is the right approach?

31:26Caroline Hyde:Have you had any investors putting pressure on in terms of proving that you can be generating recurring revenue and profitability? I don't think anyone is questioning that autonomy is going to be in every vehicle in the future. I think that's very clear to the market now. Every vehicle is going to be autonomous. The question is, what is the right technology strategy and what is the right business model? And you'll have pricing power. A hundred percent.

31:50Ed Ludlow:That was Wave CEO Alex Kendall speaking with Bloomberg Tech's Tom McKenzie. Check out more of Bloomberg Tech Europe on the Bloomberg Terminal and online. OK, coming up, we're going to speak to Sequoia partner Alfred Lynn, who joins us with the CEO of his new portfolio company, Rowe Spaces, Michael Manipat. That's next. This is Bloomberg Tech.

32:21This is Special Agent Regal, Special Agent Bradley Hall. The time is approximately 11.15 a.m.

32:31Alfred Lin:About to start a consensual telephone call with Dr. Daiwa Zhang.

32:39Caroline Hyde:China's Ministry of State Security is one of the most mysterious and powerful spy agencies in the world.

32:45Ed Ludlow:But in 2017, the FBI got inside.

33:02Caroline Hyde:I've never seen that much evidence in my entire career, and I don't think we'll ever see that much evidence again. I now have several terabytes of an MSS officer, no doubt, no question, of his life. and that's a unicorn. This is a story of the inner workings of the MSS and how one man's ambition and mistakes opened its vault of secrets. Listen to The Sixth Bureau from Bloomberg Podcasts starting on February 13th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

33:46Ed Ludlow:Roseface, an AI startup designed to help financial services firms make better use of their own data, has launched today. $50 million in seed and Series A funding led by Sequoia. Michael Manipat, CEO of Roseface, and Alfred Lin, partner of Sequoia, are here with us. I think, I'll start with you. If you go back to 2022, the chat GPT moment, and you tried to do that with the tool of the time, the limiting factor would have been data and it would have been context. I guess the best place to start is to ask what you've solved for, what the actual technology is that you've worked on that allows financial services, outfits to do better with what they've got.

34:22Ed Ludlow:Yeah, so I can start from the beginning. RoastBase is an AI platform for asset managers. We help our customers use what we call their institutional memory, all of that proprietary data and the accumulated judgment to make better and faster decisions. As you noted, all of our customers have had the sentiment of there is enormous value in our data if only we could take advantage of that. So we help them do that. So Rowspace connects to all of their data systems. That's not just documents, but it's things like accounting, trade, and position information, CRMs, anything you can imagine. And our AI agents understand the data, the connections, the inconsistencies, the conflicts, so we can reason holistically and rigorously over all of that data.

35:05Ed Ludlow:So I can give you one quick example. to make it more concrete. So we're lucky to work with one of the world's largest credit originators. And when they have a question... You won't name them. You can imagine the compliance and security requirements of our customers. But if they're considering what trade can and should we make now, that involves exporting reports from a variety of systems, reconciling the data, cross-referencing with credit documents. It's really easy to miss the piece of data that might drive a key decision. Right. We help give our customers this complete view with AI. You know, it's the moment of agents right now.

35:40Ed Ludlow:People are so excited by agents, but really agents are only as good as the data they operate on. Alfred, you know, Sequoia is in OpenAI and in Anthropic. This is the application of the environment that we're in, particularly, you know, relevant to our audience, financial services. You know, why you decided to make this particular investment and your sort of thesis around it.

36:04Alfred Lin:Well, at Sequoia, we first start with the founders. Founder, focus, and then market-driven. And this is a place where both are just exceptional. Michael and Ibo, his co-founder, they met at M &T. They've been working together for a period of time. They took different paths. They knew each other when they were young. And Michael worked at Stripe and Notion. He understands the problem. Ibo worked in finance leadership. so he understands the problem of taking data from all these disparate systems and bringing it all together. And so these two are attacking a very, very important problem. This is not something you can get wrong.

36:43Alfred Lin:People use Rospace to make better decisions with AI. And they need to make sure the numbers are right. And in many of these cases, they're making decisions to make more money. And so the investment thesis here is we can help people make better decisions. This is going to be a really, really powerful application.

37:00Michael Manapat:Michael, it's interesting, though. I spoke to Thrive Capital before, and they've basically built this themselves using all their own internal emails, chains, data. They've built it and probably using OpenAI's technology. And I'm interested as to what the clapback is to the idea that Anthropic plugin isn't eventually going to be as good or businesses can't build it themselves in some way.

37:21Ed Ludlow:It's a great question. A few things here. First, our view is that the products in market right now are really focused on time savings faster decks, faster models. That's really valuable, and it's important. Our focus, as Alfred mentioned, is really how do we help our customers make better decisions. And this demand is going incredibly deep into their data. All of the records from their trades, positions, memos, all of that, it needs to be understood in advance. And this is an incredibly challenging problem. It's an infrastructure problem. It is a security problem. It is a product problem. and, of course, it's an AI one.

38:00Ed Ludlow:And that is a problem that our Rowspace team is really well-created to handle. There are so many nuances in finance. How do you do reconciliation? How do you understand what a restatement is? What version of EBITDA do you even use in this model? And what version of the document is the correct one? Those are all things that we care about in extreme detail. Is it adjusted? Is it approved? All that, yes.

38:22Michael Manapat:Extreme detail. Let's get, though, a little bit bird's-eye perspective for a moment, if we can, Alfred, because this is a week in which we are throwing ourselves into a dystopian future. We are trying to think what the future of authentic AI means for an economy, for workplace, for unemployment. And Alfred, what do you make of the Citrini research? What do you make of the Harvard piece about actually the outperformance does come from humans still AI? Hasn't been able to replicate that. Where do you sit in terms of where we are in terms of authentic AI and the impact it has on your line of business, on mine?

38:53Alfred Lin:So at Sequoia, we've always been optimists. and I think we need to be to help build legendary companies with the daring that we back. And the people that are daring are people like Michael. And you can think of the world as a dystopian world, but at the same time, we just are very, very optimistic that the impacts are real. AI impacts are real. They're going to allow us to do a lot more than we used to be able to do. And so, yes, some of the things that we did before we're going to not do anymore because it's going to get automated by AI. But it just leaves all of us to be able to do much more strategic work, much more creative work, and much more human work.

39:39Alfred Lin:This is why in Roseface's sort of example, there's still a human in the loop. And we want the human to be in the loop to make the decisions on our behalf. I don't think we're going to give our decisions willy-nilly to an AI to make on retirements and benefits and insurance or anything related to the type of your viewers who are thinking about those decisions.

40:04Ed Ludlow:Alfred, you were named as co-steward of the firm in November alongside Pat Grady. But interesting, you know, in leading this round with Sequoia, how's that first few months been, you know, continuing to make investments, do things differently or the same at the firm? Tell us what it's like?

40:21Alfred Lin:It's pretty much been pretty smooth. It's been great working with Pat. And the reason that we're co is because that allows us to stay on the field. And we love investing at Sequoia. And so we believe that that's where most of the time should be spent. I spent a lot of time with Michael because it's fun. It's interesting. And we get to help founders build the future.

40:42Ed Ludlow:This is a combined seed series A, but it's a big chunk of change,$50 million. You know, when we were talking about keeping a human in the loop, I was immediately thinking about observability. But really, I think what we should get to is how you're going to run this business, who you need to hire, and what the kind of operating challenge is in the near term. Yeah, like I mentioned, this is a problem that is not just an AI modeling one. We have to deploy securely in our customers' environment, so we keep the data where it is. That is an infrastructure and a security engineering challenge, and we are beefing up the team there.

41:16Ed Ludlow:There is all of this applied AI research that we have to do to make sure our agents can understand arbitrary financial data, reason about it carefully. We're expanding our teams in both San Francisco and New York, so this is a huge year for growth for us. We expect to triple, if not quadruple, the team over both locations.

41:34Michael Manapat:This could be a huge year, Alfred, for IPOs and for companies that you're invested in. I think of Anthropic, I think of OpenAI. It seems as though Stripe, which you're invested in, is going to be holding off for a little bit longer. But Alfred, where's your optimism there? Is 2026 the year?

41:53Alfred Lin:That's a funny question because we try to make each year better than the previous year at Sequoia. And if you do that every year, that's the reason we're optimistic. And this year, I'm sure it's going to be better than last year. And we don't really think about the companies that are exiting or staying private. The companies that last, they're in this journey and they're working on their visions for decades. And so, you know, you have Jensen, who is going to report today. We've seeded that company. It's been three decades and he's still going. What is your optimism, Alfred, on companies like Snowflake that you've been in for a very long time,

42:37Michael Manapat:on their ability to take on this moment of reckoning in software, on this moment of reckoning in disruption? Can they rebuild from within? Can they be the ones that survive what many feel is going to be ultimate disruption?

42:49Alfred Lin:Well, I think the sort of fun that we have at Sequoia is that we get to back the daring, build legendary companies. And so every company will go through these ups and downs. Rowspace is an AI-native company, and so they're focused on building the way that software is built today. Let's not forget, AI is a lot of software. The legacy software companies of yesteryear, like Oracle, still exist today. Snowflake has to make the transition from where it is today, which has lots of customers and lots of people using it, to build more AI into their business. If they do, they will do extremely well. And I believe in the management team of Snowflake to be able to make that transition.

43:37Michael Manapat:Well, certainly the CEO comes from an AI startup, Alfred Lin, partner at Sequoia. Michael Manipat, CEO of Rowspace. Joy having you both on. Thank you very much indeed. Coming up, all eyes are on Jensen and NVIDIA and its earnings. More on what investors can expect. This is Blue Bag Tech.

44:06Michael Manapat:There are some big earnings to keep on after the closing bell, and it's not just NVIDIA. Salesforce, Snowflake, we've just been discussing with Brody how the pressure is on these executives to fight the good fight versus AI and disruption. We've got seen both trading higher ahead of the numbers. Zoom, though, off by 2%. Again, AI potentially area of attack, but how they continue to see growth. We'll see we're off by 2 % paramount. It's not all about M &A. It's also about actual real growth that we're seeing in the business and how they can afford to make 15 big movies a year. We'll see whether that slate can be financed.

44:37Michael Manapat:But what do we think about in terms of NVIDIA, Ed? Because we are rallying into the numbers.

44:42Ed Ludlow:I think the bar is high and we are rallying into the numbers. Let's get a preview of Bloomberg's Ian King on NVIDIA. You've covered this company for a really long time. It does not typically miss earnings expectations. but it's probably the best lever of AI sentiment you can have. What do you look for in a moment where beat or miss isn't really what it's about? It's what Mr. Huang says on an earnings call that projects a lot of optimism.

45:12Alfred Lin:As you pointed out, in the last decade, it's missed earnings revenue estimates twice. And sometimes it's beaten by as much as 20-odd percent. And so, you know, good is a given for them. And that is what the consensus is, is that, you know, the numbers will be good. The concern is it'll be like last time where Stellar isn't good enough. And, you know, the stock will initially bounce and then maybe it goes down as people start to say, yeah, we already know this. Excite us. Give us something new.

45:43Michael Manapat:Analysts are really optimistic about the stock. There's still only one sell rating. Remains the same as always. Seaport. 78 buys and they do expect shares to rally some 263. What do you think gets us there, Ian, in terms of a catalyst? Because as we're hearing earlier, maybe we see the big, bold bets from Jensen held until GTC.

46:02Alfred Lin:Yeah, a new product category. But even then, at this point, the numbers are so huge. We're talking 60 % year-on-year growth for a company that's got tens of billions of dollars of revenue from one unit, right? That unit happens to be bigger than pretty much any other chip company. What do you do that can rival that? What do you do that can make an impression on that? So that's obviously difficult. Really, the expectation is keep feeding us, keep feeding the beast, keep creating that belief that AI is going to continue and is going to change the world economy.

46:39Michael Manapat:Ian King, it's going to be busy. thanks so much for joining us ahead of it. Meanwhile, that does it for this important edition of Bloomberg Tech. We've got a lot to look forward to later this day, Ed.

46:49Ed Ludlow:Yeah, and it is NVIDIA everything. But as we've said throughout the hour, there are many other earnings directly related, particularly ServiceNow, Snowflake, and the software names that we'll continue to track.

46:59Michael Manapat:Not ServiceNow, but yeah, certainly Salesforce.

47:01Ed Ludlow:Snowflake, Salesforce, exactly. All right, check out the pod. You know where to find it? On the Bloomberg platforms and online, on Spotify, Apple, and iHeart. brace, I guess, and videos coming off the market. This is Bloomberg Tech.

47:24Caroline Hyde:I'm Joe Matthew, inviting you to join me for the Balance of Power podcast. Every day we deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including breaking news from Bloomberg's reporters and in-depth conversations with lawmakers and administration officials that you won't hear anywhere else. What are the policy changes the Trump administration is making that affect Washington and Wall Street and drive your investment decisions? From tariffs to taxes, the rules are constantly changing, which is why you need to listen every day. We do it all live each weekday, then bring you the best conversations in the daily podcast.

48:01Caroline Hyde:Catch up on the headlines you missed while you were at work. Listen on your way home for the top news of the day, straight from our nation's capital and around the world. That's the Balance of Power podcast with me, Joe Matthew, and Kaylee Lines. Listen on Apple, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.

From the publisher

Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow preview Nvidia’s earnings as investors look for fresh clues on AI’s market impact. Plus, Anthropic loosens its central safety policy amid a growing dispute with the US Defense Department over guardrails. And Sequoia partner Alfred Lin discusses AI’s impact on financial services alongside the CEO of his new portfolio company, Rowspace's Michael Manapat

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