In short
Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Tech Episode - Larry Ellison Guarantees Paramount’s Bid for WBD
Podcast Overview Title: Bloomberg Tech Hosts: Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow Description: This podcast provides news and analysis on global technology companies and investors, focusing exclusively on technology, innovation, and the future of business.
---
Episode Highlights
Main Topics Discussed
- Larry Ellison's Guarantee for Paramount's Bid
- Larry Ellison provides a personal financial guarantee for Paramount Skydance's bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).
- The bid includes amendments that address previous concerns raised by WBD.
- Google's Acquisition of Intersect Power
- Google agrees to buy power provider Intersect Power for $4.75 billion to bolster its data center operations.
- This move aims to enhance Google's energy infrastructure for AI products.
- AI Regulation in New York
- New York Governor Kathy Hochul signs a bill regulating advanced artificial intelligence, making New York the second state to do so.
- The bill aims to monitor risks posed by foundational AI models.
---
Key Concepts and Discussions
Larry Ellison and Paramount's Bid
- Personal Guarantee: Ellison's guarantee is a significant assurance to WBD shareholders, addressing concerns about the financial backing of the Paramount bid.
- Amended Deal Structure: Paramount's offer includes various changes to the agreement, focusing on the security of the financial backing rather than increasing the bid amount.
- Competitive Landscape: The ongoing struggle between Paramount and Netflix for acquiring WBD highlights the competitive nature of the media industry.
Google's Energy Acquisition
- Purpose of Acquisition: The acquisition of Intersect Power aims to streamline energy provision for Google's expanding data center needs.
- Clean Energy Focus: Google plans to develop clean energy solutions on-site to meet the growing demands of its AI infrastructure.
AI Regulation
- RAISE Act: The new regulations in New York focus on advanced AI models and their potential risks, aiming for oversight and accountability in AI development.
- Industry Pushback: There was significant lobbying from tech companies against stringent regulations, reflecting a tension between innovation and oversight.
---
Key Takeaways
- Larry Ellison's role is pivotal in the current media bidding war, showcasing the influence of wealthy tech leaders in corporate negotiations.
- Energy needs for tech giants like Google are driving acquisitions that integrate power generation and data center operations.
- Regulatory frameworks for AI are evolving, indicating a growing recognition of the risks associated with advanced AI technologies.
---
Conclusion This episode of Bloomberg Tech covers significant developments in the technology and media landscape, from high-stakes corporate bidding wars to the implications of AI regulatory frameworks. The discussions highlight the intricate relationship between financial backing, technological needs, and regulatory measures shaping the future business environment.
For more insights, listen to the full episode on major platforms such as Apple and Spotify.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Hello, I'm Stephen Carroll. I'm in Brussels where many of Europe's biggest decisions get made. And I'm Caroline Hepker in London with the hosts of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. We're up early every weekday keeping an eye on what's happening across Europe and around the world. We do it early so the news is fresh, not recycled and so you know what actually matters as the day gets going. From Brussels, I'm following the politics, policy and the people shaping the European Union right now. And from London, I'm looking at what all that means for markets, money and the wider economy. We've got reporters across Europe and around the globe feeding in as stories break So whether it's geopolitics, energy, tech or markets, you're hearing it while it happens It's smart, calm and to the point And it fits into your morning You can find new episodes of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast by 7am in Dublin or 8am in Brussels, Berlin and Paris On Apple, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts
1:02Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.
1:11Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco. This is Bloomberg Tech coming up. Paramount Skydance amend its bid for Warner Brothers Discovery, This time, including a personal financial guarantee by Oracle chairman Larry Ellison. Plus, Chinese chip makers are rushing to the IPO market. After back-to-back listings surge, we discuss the ongoing global AI race. And New York Governor Kathy Hochul signs a bill to restrict the most advanced artificial intelligence. We discuss a regulatory landscape building in the United States. But first, we check in on these markets at the moment that are building too.
1:54We're building towards what has been a spectacular year for the NASDAQ 100, up more than 20%. We're up 0.4%. We're fading some of the initial gains at the open. But really more broadly, this is about big tech AI anxiety, just pulling back a little bit and actually people putting money on towards this shortened trading week. We delve into the individual movers. One is being driven by breaking news right now. Alphabet, we check in on their particular shares in a moment for you. But now I'm looking at the media landscape. Let's go to Alphabet because we're trading flat. But this is news breaks that it's actually making a big acquisition in the world of energy, Intersect Energy, helping them develop their overall data centers that are becoming sprawling and ever more necessary here in the United States.
2:35But they need the energy infrastructure with it to do that. $4.75 billion, including debt for this particular private equity backed company, which is still building out in Texas for other clients than Alphabet. So keep an eye on what's happening in the world of energy and Alphabet. move on from Alphabet and look at what's happening in the media industry because that's what drives the trade and all the talk on the day. Paramount, Skydance, basically the Ellison's back with an amended deal. They will pay more if indeed they were able to clinch Warner Brothers' discovery but it failed to go through to$5.8 billion if the deal didn't happen.
3:08But more broadly, they're saying, by the way, we're good for the money. We're going to give a personal guarantee from Larry Ellison, David Ellison's father, to ensure that the money, the$40 billion of equity there that they'd be doing to help purchase Warner Brothers Discovery is intact. Netflix on the downside is perhaps there's more tussle at the top for this particular asset. Let's get Chris Palmare's take on all of this. You're out covering the world of media. Boy, is entertainment and media on tenterhooks at the moment, Chris. What do you make of this amended deal? Because the price doesn't change.
3:39It's just the guarantee on the money. So an extraordinary amount of steps on Paramount's part to address the concerns that Warner Brothers had identified last week and why they didn't pick them to begin with. So quite a lot there. The personal guarantee from Larry Ellison, one of the issues was this was being backed by a revocable trust. What if he revoked it? A lot of other changes to terms in terms of their ability, Warner Brothers' ability to operate in the interim period before something's improved. They extended the tender date. A lot of changes, everything but raising the price. And that's a big issue, because if Warner Brothers did decide to not go with Netflix and go with another suitor, they would have to pay Netflix$2.8 billion, and somebody's going to have to pay that.
4:24So everything but a change in price. And then, Ford, does it all come down to what you think the cable networks are actually worth, Chris, If they indeed manage to convince David Zaslav that they're good for the money, is this more personal for David or is this more about the price of the networks? You know, it does go beyond all of that, for sure. Right now, there is this difference in how you because, you know, Netflix is not buying the cable networks and they're worth, Paramount says, only a dollar a share. Other people say three or four dollars a share. That's a big part of it. But really, when you also saw that letter and filing last week from Warner Brothers, they talked about having a stronger balance sheet long term, which Netflix undisputably has, about fewer cuts of jobs because Netflix really doesn't have a studio in lot like Warner Brothers does.
5:19So they wouldn't they aren't promising as many cuts as Paramount would. So better for Hollywood is one of the things Warner Brothers said. So those sort of intangible things are also part of the mix. Chris Palmari running us through what is a very complex Hollywood shakeup. In fact, we talked about this last week. Remember, Kevin Mayer joined the show, his Candle Media co-CEO, former TikTok CEO, but also a Disney executive. Here's what he had to say about a potential Paramount comeback. Even though Netflix won the first round, don't count it out. The Ellisons, they're incredibly smart and aggressive.
5:53Don't count out Jerry Cardinal, Redbird. These guys are very serious. I think they're going to come back with a higher bid. And when they approached, and remember, shareholders still haven't spoken yet. I think the likelihood of here is that Warner Brothers ends up with Paramount. And I think it's ultimately, it's the cost of jobs, obviously, in Hollywood. There's no getting around that, but ultimately good for creators. I mean, he helped found Disney+. What, therefore, for Bournemouth Brothers Discovery saga? John Klein's with us, co-founder of Hang Media. You're, of course, the former president of CNN.
6:22You know the inner workings of media right now, John. Do you think that the deal has to be sweetened? It can't just be about more for a breakup fee or good for the money in terms of Larry Ellison? Yeah, you know, it's a very clear picture of who's got the leverage here. Clearly, WBD has suitors. And David Zaslav can just sit and fold his arms and say, look, you're not talking in my good ear yet, Paramount. And it's not a dumb way to try to drive their offer up even higher. And that wouldn't surprise me. What do you think could be the quibbling around the cable networks? That's the area that you knew, you loved, you performed in.
7:03And there has been, of course, the regulatory concern about who ends up owning CNN. but more broadly about what they really are basically priced at, John. Yeah. And, you know, value really depends on the acquirer. And there could very well be acquirers out there in the universe of media who value those cable networks much more highly than a Netflix would or even Paramount would. And, you know, you could see where Versant, for example, which is being spun off from Comcast, which is identical to the cable spinoff that WBD is doing. You could see them valuing TNT, TBS, True TV, CNN much more highly than these current players are.
7:52So value is in the eye of the beholder. I could see the local station giants like Nextstar and Sinclair, also loving the idea of having both the national footprint as well as their ever-growing roster of local stations. So, you know, there could be even more money available to WBD if they go ahead and sell those two components separately. I see. What would you think would happen if, and it's a big if, Paramount Skydance got hold of all the assets because Netflix, we know if that deal gets done, the cable networks would be spun off. But if Paramount Skydance took hold, what do you think then would be the evolution here?
8:32Well, they could still do a spinoff of their own cable properties and broadcast properties. There's all kinds of financial engineering that could then take place. I don't know that it would happen overnight, although this new Paramount management team has moved extremely quickly. David Ellison gets a lot of attention. But Jeff Schell, who was the chairman of NBC Universal, is a fantastic operator. And I could see them moving quickly. However, it sort of reminds one of the snake that eats the deer. It's, you know, it unhinges its jaw and it spends the next three months just trying to move that thing down the tunnel.
9:15And it could take a while for all of these synergies to be realized. How important is the Ellison relationship with the administration at this point, John? Because that's in many ways what they thought would clinch the deal. It's been reported. Well, much as David Zaslav is able to sit there and play one side off the other, so is Donald Trump in a similar position where he has not put his finger on the scale yet in favor of Paramount's offer, despite his relationship with Larry Ellison. And he has said very nice things about Ted Sarandos, the co-CEO of Netflix. And I think that Donald Trump is enjoying being in a position to see who can curry more favor with him.
10:01So there's no reason for either President Trump or David Zaslav to pull the trigger on anything just yet. They want to see how these deals all get sweetened. I suppose the other contingent of stakeholder who is sat there with their arms folded is the investor base right now. They've got what until January the 21st to digest whether this go direct in way the Ellicens have approached them, Warner Brothers Discovery shareholders to be clinched versus going with Netflix. What would you say to an investor who's holding Warner Brothers Discovery shares right now? That there's plenty of time for this deal from Paramount to go even higher.
10:43So one way or another, WBD is going to be making out very nicely. History has shown us that the sellers in these media deals tend to make out better than the buyers. So they're in a pretty good position in that respect as well. You look at Disney's acquisition of the Fox assets a few years ago, and Disney's valuation has dropped significantly at least since then. And Rupert Murdoch is counting his money. So they're in a decent position and there's no need to get too worked up just yet. Plenty of time for the dollars to increase. What's so interesting about your trajectory in media is you've sort of been able to see around the corners.
11:25You were in the heart of news, the in the heart of production. Then you went into the world of AI selling while helping manage a business. Eventually went to Apple. You're with Hang Media at the moment. What does all of this mean for Hollywood and for content creation right now? Well, we're on at the very beginning of a content creation explosion. And this deal, however it turns out, is taking place within a much larger environment in which creators who are being distributed by YouTube and TikTok are commanding much more viewing time than the traditional producers, writers, directors, and most of all, studios.
12:11And so in a lot of ways, this battle for the assets of WBD is really all about the way media used to be. But the big winner here is YouTube, because nobody's keeping their eye on that. I mean, YouTube made headlines last week. They just stole the Oscars from ABC. beginning in 2029, YouTube is going to be where you go to watch the Oscars. And listen, in the 2030s, I think all those tech giants are going to be running media and all of these other companies will be significantly smaller. And we're just seeing the beginning of this. So in a lot of ways, this matters a lot to the shareholders for WBD, Netflix, Paramount, etc.
12:54But in terms of the long-term trajectory of the media industry, that's all happening somewhere else. And certainly that's one the regulators had to digest. What really is the market that a Netflix plus Warner Brothers Discovery would be competing in? John Klein of Hang Media, it's always great to catch up with you. Happy holidays. Thank you. Coming up, Google is buying insect power to help build out its energy infrastructure for AI products. We delve into that next. This is Bloomberg Tech.
13:36I'm Joe Matthew, inviting you to join me for the Balance of Power podcast. Every day we deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including breaking news from Bloomberg's reporters and in-depth conversations with lawmakers and administration officials that you won't hear anywhere else. What are the policy changes the Trump administration is making that affect Washington and Wall Street and drive your investment decisions? From tariffs to taxes, the rules are constantly changing, which is why you need to listen every day. We do it all live each weekday, then bring you the best conversations in the daily podcast.
14:14Catch up on the headlines you missed while you were at work. Listen on your way home for the top news of the day straight from our nation's capital and around the world. That's the Balance of Power podcast with me, Joe Matthew, and Kaylee Lines. Listen on Apple, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.
14:40Google has agreed to buy power provider Intersect Power for$4.75 billion in cash plus existing debt. That says the tech giant makes a push to grow its data center presence. Greenberg's Josh Shaw joins us now to discuss. Shares are moving higher, up about five-tenths percent, Josh. Why is Alphabet getting ever more into the world of clean energy? Ever since we saw tech companies needing a lot of electricity for their data centers, there's been a conflict between utilities, traditional power providers, which move slow, make sure that nothing ever breaks. Grid reliability is paramount for them. Tech companies want to move really fast.
15:20They want to get a ton of power. They're not against breaking things. This is an example of a big tech company saying, we're just going to bring a whole power generation company. We're going to bring that in-house so that we can really quickly develop a lot of clean energy to power a lot of our data centers and our AI dreams. InterTech Power is an interesting company. It's been backed by private equity players such as TPG. But they actually build out, particularly in Texas, not just for Alphabet. So they've got other clients on their books. How is this actually going to work from an M &A perspective?
15:55That's interesting. I'm not sure how that's going to get worked out. But I think what it means for Google is that they'll be obviously front of line and able to build a lot of clean energy on site with its data centers. Something that that allows Google to go even faster with is it won't have to build big transmission lines. If you have power plants or solar and wind farms somewhere, and then you have to permit transmission lines to move that electricity long distances to get to the data centers, what Intersect is good at and what Google has expressed interest about in the past is building those big solar and wind farms on the exact same site, basically ringing or adjacent to the huge AI data centers.
16:38So that means that the electricity can just flow directly into those facilities. Suna Pichai, Chief Executive Officer of Google and parent company Alphabet, talking about how it's going to expand capacity, going to operate nimbly in building new power generation in lockstep with the data center need. They are not the only player needing to expand in data centers. Is this kind of going to become thick and fast? These sorts of energy assets are going to be really interesting to some of these big hyperscalers. Yes, for sure. We've seen all the big hyperscalers making different moves in the energy space in a way that they wouldn't have in past years.
17:14I've reported this year on Meta getting into power trading. That's so that they're able to help energy generation get brought online faster, more at the cadence that they want, as opposed to the frequency and speed with which power generation has been provided in the past. So, yeah, basically, to a company, you can expect all of the big hyperscalers to be making different moves in the energy space to try to make sure that they're getting as much electrons, as many electrons as they need for their big AI goals. Josh, it's going to be a busy one for you in 2026. Thanks so much for talking us through this particular deal.
17:53We appreciate it. Josh Saul there.
18:01Chinese chip makers, they are rushing to IPO. Following some blockbuster debuts that we've just had as recently as last week, There seems to be huge demand for future national champions that analysts say could one day rival even the likes of NVIDIA. But does that enthusiasm mask technological challenges facing these firms? Bloomberg's Maggie Eastland, who covers Chips, joins us now. The context of this is almost a 700 % pop in MetaX that debuted last week. We've got other of the so-called four little dragons looking to IPO. It's all about domestic national champions. Exactly, Caroline. So China is certainly putting a lot of support behind these chip champions, and there's no shortage of capital.
18:42Bloomberg has reported on an incentives package for semiconductors of up to$70 billion. So the push for domestic chip companies is alive. It's strong and well. The questions come in when you look at the technological challenges. So Chinese chip makers, you could look at Huawei as one of the top champions. And this year, we're still relying on foundry services from TSMC, as well as memory from Korean providers. So, you know, it's a key question. What is going to happen once China actually makes that shift to relying on SMIC and relying on their own manufacturing, where the yields are kind of questionable?
19:16Okay, so they've got to get the foundries in place. They've got to, of course, many are conjuring what the ASML competitor is over there as well, Maggie. But take us back to some of the other reporting that's in the market today that H200s from NVIDIA will start being produced and being able to be issued into China. I mean, we haven't heard from the government. But what do you think about the need, the use case of H200s? Of course, when you look at H200s, I think one of the key questions going forward is how is this going to affect the ecosystem of Chinese model companies? You know, last year we had this deep sea moment.
19:52And that is very intertwined with access to chips. Of course, now it's widely known that DeepSeek accessed A100s. Those are NVIDIA chips that are less powerful than the H200s. So what is going to happen once China is able to access, if they accept the H200s, what does that mean for the Chinese model companies? Will they grow more competitive? There was a story today on Bloomberg about Zipu and Minimax and their revenue. We're just seeing some numbers. They're not quite as high as OpenAI and Anthropic. But this is a key area of interest going forward, right, given that they're no longer going to be as hindered by their lack of access to advanced NVIDIA chips.
20:29Maggie Eastland, it's going to be a fascinating trend. You're continuing to watch for us. Thank you. Let's talk more about the geopolitical issues at play here between the U.S., between China. Eliza Tobin's with us, Managing Director at Garnot Global. All of this is so interesting as to whether or not, indeed, NVIDIA gets access to China, whether we see a TikTok deal, whether we see continuing trade issues between U.S. and China iron out. If we talk about chips in particular, what have you made of the ferocious focus on domestic supply chain resiliency coming from China? Yeah, it's a great question, Caroline.
21:04And I agree with Maggie just now that, you know, the H200 is really going to be a boon for some of these Chinese AI companies. As we've seen over and over again, compute is really the bottleneck. But I want to go back to what you said about the TikTok deal. You know, we heard the news a few days ago. It hasn't yet been finalized. And I think a lot of investors are going to be analyzing what is the structure of this deal. But what I think is more interesting is what appears to be the case is that ByteDance, the parent company that owns TikTok, is going to maintain control over TikTok's algorithm.
21:42This, of course, is the special sauce that makes TikTok what it is, that makes it so addictive and so special in the first place. And I just want to remind your audience that Beijing has never agreed to turn over control of this algorithm over to these U.S. investors. And that's really at the heart of the deal. So what you see is, as the Trump administration keeps trying to come up with some kind of a deal to end this TikTok saga and keep it in the United States. It keeps kind of lowering the bar on this deal with Beijing over TikTok to the point where now we're probably going to be settling on a deal where Beijing, through ByteDance, maintains control over this algorithm and this vector of influence over American discourse and what hundreds of millions of people are seeing on this app every day.
22:34So, Liza, are you saying when the talk is, the reporting is that they will be able to license the algorithm and then rebuild it? You don't think that they will be rebuilding? You don't think there will be some sort of retraining? We'll still be dependent on ByteDance's underlying algorithm? Yeah, I mean, color me skeptical. They've been working on this, you know, so-called security deal for quite some time. But the reason that the Congress on a bipartisan basis passed the law in the first place and then the Supreme Court upheld it was because they did not see it as viable for U.S. national security for a adversary controlled company, you know, ByteDance and TikTok to be maintaining control of this algorithm.
23:20So I think they're going to be putting some kind of lipstick on the pig and some kind of security arrangement in place. But remember, going all the way back to 2020, Beijing put export controls on this algorithm. Those haven't gone away. Beijing has never budged in its stance. It's the U.S. side that has kind of lowered expectations over and over again. And the deal still isn't done yet. Liza, very briefly, is national security at risk, if that stands? Yeah, you know, we can make an analogy perhaps to the Cold War. It's almost as if during the Cold War we let the Soviets take control over some of our major newspapers.
24:01Or imagine today if Bloomberg TV were up for sale to the Russians or the Iranians. What's somewhat ironic is that last month the Trump administration put out its national security strategy. You can see it on the White House website. And it makes the point over and over again that foreign interference in U.S. media is a problem. And yet, here we are on the verge of this deal with TikTok with Beijing maintaining control. Liza Tobin, Managing Director at Garnet Global. It's great to catch up with you. Thank you. This is Bloomberg Tech.
24:43Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. Let's check in on these markets because we're on risk-on mode. It is a shortened week ahead of the holidays. People selling up their books and just trading into this tech market. We're seeing Nasdaq 100 up five-tenths of a percent. In fact, it's on course to delivering more than 20 % growth for the entire year. So big tech remains on top even as we still have some AI anxieties around. We're seeing less anxieties around crypto today. We're up more than 2%, but look, it is down on the year by some 4%. We have only seen that a handful of times for the OG in the crypto space.
25:13keep an eye at the$90 ,000 level. Let's move on and look at the individual players in the NASDAQ 100 that you want to keep an eye on because it's all about M &A in media and the tussle at the top for what is a prize asset, a Warner Brothers Discovery. It's trading up 2.9 % because we seem to have an amended offer coming from the Ellison family. This one, Paramount Skydark, saying, look, we'll pay more if there's a breakup fee and also we guarantee the money coming from Larry Ellison, David Ellison's father. Meanwhile, Netflix off by 7 tenths of a percent as it looks as though there might have to be a bit more of a bidding war or indeed some sort of worry that they might not clinch the deal.
Read the full transcript
25:50Let's talk about it all. We've got Bloomberg Tech Editor Tom Giles with us. So it seems as though, Larry Ellison, to the rescue, a lot of the worry from Warner Brothers' discovery had been around how good Paramount Skydance was for the money. That's right. When you've got the backing, the personal guarantee of one of the world's wealthiest people, that's bound to make a difference. Remember that one of the bones of contention between the two companies was the idea of where this money, how this money would be held. Previously, it was going to be held in a revocable trust. And as the name implies, there was a little bit of room there for it to be moved around, for the terms to change a little bit somehow.
26:32Now, Larry Ellison is saying that$40 billion, we're going to back it with an irrevocable trust. that's an extra element of assurance that Warner Brothers shareholders should be able to take away from this extra bit of this extra assurance from one of the world's wealthiest people. Just remind us of the extraordinary nature that Larry Ellison has been playing in the world of tech and media just the entirety of 2025. He's sort of at the root of nearly all stories that we're covering at the moment, Tom. Is that competitive instinct there? Do we think that they'll actually raise the bid, not just amend it?
27:11Yeah, well, you know, right on your show, including with Kevin Meyer, former Disney executive, you've had several people speculating that they will have to sweeten their bid. As of right now, they're amending some of the terms. But in terms of the dollar value that's going to go into the hands of shareholders, Warner Brothers shareholders, that has not changed. There's a lot of speculation that in order to get Zaslav, Warner Brothers CEO, back to the table, they're going to have to sweeten the bid. That these terms, they're going to help. They're going to address some of the concerns, but that the number has to rise.
27:46Remember that there's disagreement between Netflix and Paramount as to whose bid is superior. David Ellison, CEO of Paramount, will definitely say his is superior. It puts more money into the hands of shareholders. but it's difficult to assess on an apples-to-apples basis because one of them places a value on the cable networks, the other one doesn't, the other one presupposes that those cable networks are going to be spun off. So it's a disagreement around how do you value those networks. Also, how much stock do you put in the share price of Netflix, which is a big part of its share price. Meanwhile, Netflix has been tidying up its own financing for the deal today as well.
28:29Tom Giles, very busy. end of the year for you. Thanks so much for joining us on this deal. And look, let's talk about how the deal for Warner Brothers really is upending potentially the future of Hollywood. But there's a bigger shift at play as well, simultaneously, and it's artificial intelligence. It is rewriting how content is created, it's licensed, it's monetized. Let's talk about that with Robin Feldman, professor of law at UC Law San Francisco and a leading expert on intellectual property and innovation. You're out with a new book, AI versus IP, Rewriting Creativity. You seem to have an argument that they could work in lockstep.
29:04But for now, just let's think back to how the IP relationship has been redrawn with Disney and OpenAI. Was that for positive, do you think? Ah, yes, the Mickey Mouse deal. Well, it's hard to know whether there's much substance to that deal if you look into it. We see Disney promising to invest money into OpenAI, but it's a drop in the bucket compared to the amount of money that OpenAI says it's going to spend on infrastructure and chips. And then for OpenAI's part, OpenAI says that it is licensing the Disney characters, but it's not paying any cash in the deal, just stock warrants, which is the opportunity for Disney to invest more money in the future if it wants to.
29:50So when I look at this deal, it reminds me a little of the Sorcerer's Apprentice movie. There's a lot of mopping and water going back and forth, but it's not clear to me there's anything really going on. We're living in fantasia or fantasy in some way. I'm interested in Robin. Professor, look, actually Warner Brothers, not only is it fending off simultaneous deals from Netflix and Paramount at the moment, but also it's busy suing other AI companies in lockstep with Disney and with Universal. they've been taking on a Chinese AI company, in particular Minimax. How are we seeing IP being at the root of legal ramifications here?
30:30Is IP being protected? So the Minimax case is fascinating because the lawsuits in the United States between content creators and the generative AI companies are completely different from the one that's happening with Minimax in China. In the US, we're talking about training the models using the content. That's a little like traveling all over the world and looking at museums and studying the great artists to figure out how to create things. But Minimax, now that's different. When you talk about the output, when the output mirrors the creative content and potentially competes with the creative content, courts are likely to be much more critical of activity like that.
31:14with Minimax, we also have the complications of international relations. The U.S. is locked in a battle with China, a cold war of types over AI that will dominate the next generation economically and from a defense possibility. So it'll be interesting to see what moves China may make. Well, this comes in the context of actually the United States president in one speech saying, look, you can't win all your IP battles at the moment. We are in a race with China. And in many ways, intellectual property has to take some sort of sideline for national security's sake. If you can just summarize, is IP safe at this moment, Robin?
31:57Can it work together with AI innovation? IP has to change. Technology rarely moves backwards. So the challenge for intellectual property and content holders is to figure out how to work with it, use it, manage it, and take advantage of it. Wow. Professor, we thank you so much. Rowan Feldman of UC Law SF out with a book as well. We appreciate you talking us through it.
32:24New York Governor Kathy Hochul has signed a state bill into law restricting the most advanced AI, making New York the second state to pass AI curbs opposed by the tech industry. Let's get the details of Bloomberg's Miles Miller. This took months in the making. Why did it take so long? Yeah, the RAISE Act was passed in June, but it took so long because there was significant lobbying from the tech industry, right? They really wanted to see changes to this law, number one. But number two, they were cognizant that California was coming out with its own law, and they wanted to see what was in that bill so that they could make some significant changes to New York's bill.
33:03What is at the center of all this are these frontier AI models, what we also call foundational AI models, right? GPT-4, Gemini, Claude. The companies behind these now get a level of state oversight. The state financial services department will now be able to say, we want advanced reporting on these risks that these models pose. And that is really at the forefront of all of this. California's bill passed in September. What's in California's bill now is in New York's bill. And that's exactly what they wanted. because at the heart of all this is like, if there's 50 states coming up with their own bills, then how do you handle that in a regulatory space?
33:44I was at Meta and, you know, just we would think about, okay, so if this state's going to do this, how do you do it in this state? And then you've got the Trump component to it as well. Right, but I mean, banks might say, well, we're regulated in 50 different states, but there is an element that the federal level is coming in here. Kathy Hochul took hits on either side, many confronting the feeling that she did water it down, others feeling that this is one of the most strict laws out there. So how does it come in with the executive order that was just passed last week? Right. You know, the executive order, which is sure to have some court challenges, will also be met with probably some significant backing or opposition in Congress.
34:22Right. Congress is going to have to figure out a way to regulate all of this. But when it really comes down to it, this is about what the tech industry says is stifling innovation. but what local government says is all about trying to figure out if these models are facilitating fraud or misinformation. You've seen so many issues with some of these models where they're generating stuff that's just not true. The focus of this bill is to make sure that what is being generated is correct and is not causing undue harm on citizens. but the teeth of this bill is that the fines from the Attorney General's office will start at a million dollars and if you know anything about Tish James, she loves a lawsuit.
35:05Well said. Miles Miller, thanks so much for running us through it today. Well, let's talk about AI regulation and more broadly about the moves in the market that have seen AI pessimism perhaps easing on the stock prices today but longer term anxieties that remain particularly around the debt issuance side as well. Tomasz Tranguz is with us, his general partner at Theory Ventures. You're here to talk about the broader AI landscape. I want to get into regulation in a minute, but let's start with what you've been writing about, the debt issuance, the worries that you have about Oracle, and the basically businesses able to afford the AI infrastructure build-out.
35:38That's right. One of the big drivers of US GDP growth in the last year has really been the data center build-out to about 1.6 % of US GDP, probably 3 % next year. It's funded a lot by debt. about 60 to 70 percent of it. Okay, funded by debt. How does you, as a VC backer, someone who's found unicorns out there who keep striking gold, how does that matter to you if some of the biggest companies out there are financing the AI infrastructure with debt? It matters a lot because the startups that we back rely on these data centers in order to run AI. And if those data centers are ultimately healthy or unhealthy, it dictates whether or not there are GPUs, the processors to execute the AI.
36:21For example, we've been watching Oracle credit default swaps. You can see the spread on the CDS is growing to about 150 % trading at or near junk levels. And that's because there's broader concerns about whether Oracle can repay that debt. If you look at the cash flow from operations is negative and they have eight years, about an eight year time horizon to repay that debt before they went cash flow negative. And so as a result, they're trading of junk. And that can be a concern if the ultimate demand for their data centers doesn't exist. Well, Tomas, what about the ultimate demand? You're the person who's helping finance the companies that want to use the data centers or at least build upon models that are using them.
37:01Well, right now, you see the major hyperscalers, they're sold two years out on their GPUs. Neoclouds, which are the smaller GPU data center companies, are also growing incredibly quickly. The vast majority of AI today is techs. As we heard just a little bit before, we will see significant use of AI and the use of video. And as we've seen with Netflix and others, video takes about 100 to 1 ,000x the overall consumption. So right now, as of this moment, there's no real concern around overall AI demand. We see plenty of it. But what we're watching is if there's any slip, if there's a change in the dynamic between NVIDIA and Google GPUs, if there's a change in the overall consumption, if open source models, because they're so much more efficient, and ultimately take GPU cycles away from some of these data centers, the massive expectations placed on these companies could be crushing.
37:52What about the regulatory landscape? We were just talking about that with Miles Miller and AI oversight in New York, SF, well, on the West Coast in California. Does it matter to your startups? Absolutely it matters. One of the dynamics around regulation is the idea of regulatory capture, where the largest companies actually benefit from regulation. They have bigger balance sheets. they can sustain the regulatory costs, the lobbying costs in order to advocate for their long-term goals, whereas a smaller company, say a business that we back to the tune of 25 to 50 million, may not have those resources.
38:25So we would like to see very simple regulations at an extremely high level with a single regulatory body. And that way, startups can continue to thrive just the way they did in the early days of the Internet. Do you think the federal government will help pass that? Congress? I hope so. David Sachs, who's the AI czar, has indicated that that is the intent that the federal government pass up overarching regulatory regime. And ideally, that simplifies and eliminates all of the state regulation. Because if there's this panoply of different state regulation, just as there is with money, transmittal licenses or within banking, the cost of doing business in each of these states increases and that reduces the pace of innovation.
39:07and ultimately our competitiveness, US competitiveness in the world. How is AI innovation from your viewpoint right now, Tomas? How are we seeing some of your companies perform? So the companies are growing at rates that we've never seen, zero to 100 million in run rate in a year. That is now still rare, but it was unthinkable maybe five years ago in the previous generation of software. So these companies are growing unbelievably quickly. Another data point that I'll share is that the pace of the models themselves themselves, their sophistication is only accelerating. So Gemini, which is the Google model released, Gemini 3 was the single largest step function in performance ever, which is wild, right?
39:49Because we think about AI innovation as on the step function of S-curves, and we think at some point it will plateau. But if the recent data is any indication, the pace of innovation is only steepening. Going to keep you busy, going to keep us busy. Come back and talk to us about it. More and management for Theory Ventures. Tomas, thank you very much for your enterprise and your expertise today. Meanwhile, coming up, we're going to be joined by Ted Mortensen, managing director over at Baird. We're thinking about how you're going to trade AI in 2026. This is Bluebird Tech.
40:37Time now for Talking Tech. First up, Walt Disney's Avatar 3. It's topped the weekend box office, taking in$88 million in US and Canada. The film also opening at number one in China, taking$57.6 million there. Though numbers come in the low end of projections, Avatar 3 is expected to dominate the box office for weeks. Plus, JP Morgan, well, it's said to be considering offering crypto trading for its institutional clients. According to sources, the Wall Street giant is looking at potential products and services to expand the crypto footprint. Discussions are said to be in early stages. And a Bloomberg investigation, when it's found that at least 15 deaths have occurred across a dozen incidents in the past decade, which rescuers were unable to open the doors of a Tesla that had crashed.
41:20Now, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has opened a defect investigation into whether the door issues prevent access into certain Tesla vehicles, a story that Bloomberg continues to follow. Now, we want to turn our attention back from individual companies and moves, but to tech more broadly. NASDAQ 100, up nearly 21 % year-to-date. What do we expect to try a new 26? Ted Mortensen is with us, Baird Managing Director. You've been writing, look for more volatility in the tech sector as expectations are high. And the reality is there's a mismatch between infrastructure data center build versus enterprise adoption of AI.
41:54Ted, what adoption do you want to see in 2026 to help bring together this mismatch? Well, that's a great question. And thanks, Carolyn, for having me. And happy holidays. Listen, this cycle is probably the most robust I've seen in 30 plus years of doing this. So the overall GenEI infrastructure is not going to change. The spend is still robust. But in reality, you have the SOX up 42 percent. You have the NDX up 21 percent. And you have the IGV index, which is the software kind of index for software, only up 7.6%. If you look at beyond that one step down, most of the performance in 25 has been really focused on optical, memory, quantum, and some of the bigger semiconductor companies like Avago or Broadcom like NVIDIA and AMD, as well as some of the big cloud titans, Alibaba being one in China and obviously Google.
43:06With that said, going into 25, the street is really not looking around the corner of what could what you could see as it relates to headwinds. Right now we're in right now I would just say we're in a market of that's really almost over exuberant speculation, a lot of complacency. So do you think some of the previous winners, the NVIDIAs, the Broadcoms, the Microns are going to fare badly in 2026 or is it more we're going to pivot more into a software era? I think there's a that's a great question and I think the right one. When you have optical names up 300 percent. There is a worry about two things in kind of the semi-food chain.
43:50One is pricing. If you look at Micron's last report last week, DRAM prices were up 20 percent sequentially, not year over year, sequentially. We have a price issue. The other thing, if you listen to the Dell call a few weeks back, the CEO was very adamant that we're going to potentially run into some shortage issues. Now, is that in the ecostructure of Gen AI? Hard to say. But I think when I talk to portfolio managers that are managing a tremendous amount of client money, the worry is that what worked in 25 may not work in 26. And if you look at the pivot to software in kind of that late 27, 2728 timeframe, it's probably worth looking at that area specifically on the agentic names and the security AI names, which have corrected recently.
44:49Maybe it's Salesforce's time to shine. Ted Mortensen of Baird. It's great having you. Please come back in 2026 as we push towards whether those themes start to erupt into existence. Meanwhile, that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech. You don't want to forget to check out our podcast. You can find it on the terminal, as well as online on Apple, Spotify and iHeart from New York and back again same time same place tomorrow this is Bloomberg Tech.
From the publisher
Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde discusses Larry Ellison’s personal guarantee to back Paramount Skydance’s bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. Plus, Google agrees to buy power provider Intersect Power for $4.75 billion, as the tech giant makes a push to grow its data center presence. And New York Gov. Kathy Hochul signs a bill regulating advanced artificial intelligence into law.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

