Netflix Drops After Worse-Than-Expected Forecast; Hastings Exits

22:29Our team is very focused and robust around converting that to free cash flow. We have an asset-light model whereby we can make our growth investments while remaining at a low single-digit capex. And we have an owner's mindset across the company, so good, disciplined use of cash. So we feel good about getting that balance sheet to the point where investors consistently told us they wanted to be. And then that just opens up more optionality and flexibility for us going forward. Madison Air CEO Jill Wyant, sticking with IPOs. Shares of military drone maker, Avex. I said to begin trading today, the company has raised$320 million with shares pricing at$20 each near the top of its projected range.

23:07Let's speak now with Roger Wells. He's Avex CEO. And a big day for the business. What's interesting is what you use the money for. Therefore, what will$320 million buy you? Yeah, so our primary use of proceeds is going to be to buy down debt and create networking capital that we can really use to scale the business and accelerate growth.

23:29Caroline Hyde:Just so you know, Roger, Bloomberg's reporting that the shares are indicated to open somewhere$23 to$25 a piece. You priced at$20. It was 12 times oversubscribed. So I don't know how that makes you feel. But the basics of it are you're a drone company and you're a company that in line with the rest of industry is looking at the battlefield. You might move deeper into warfare. Explain the strategy. Yeah. So first off, we couldn't be more excited with where we landed. A lot of investor excitement and interest in the products, technologies and solutions that AVEX is moving into the market. We are a company that builds autonomous, multi-mission, multi-domain systems that are battlefield proven.

24:13By the time we get to the end of fiscal year 26, we will have delivered over 9 ,000 systems to Ukraine and really proven the capabilities that we bring. We will continue to focus in on bringing kinetic solutions that are designed to meet the needs of our customers. Long-range precision strike, border munitions, and launched effects. More broadly, when you say that these are being used, how do we see the scale ramp up? And how dependent do you remain on government contracts from the United States? Yeah, look, I think the activities we've seen in Ukraine and more recently in Iran just validate the fact that autonomous unmanned systems are going to be a part of modern warfare now and long into the future.

25:00We feel like we're well positioned with a significant backlog, over$8 billion as it stands today, and really also validated by the fact that the fiscal year 27 budget request came in over$50 billion for exactly the same types of systems that we bring to the market and to our customers. So we see a lot of growth in this area of the market and a broad adoption of this type of technology.

25:25Caroline Hyde:Have you done the math on that, Roger? So when the full year 27 defense budget gets done, how much of that you could capture? Yeah, I think we're well positioned and well aligned with evolving requirements. Obviously, we're working very closely with our customers to ensure that we are able to bring scaled systems that are affordable and on a timeline that's operationally relevant. So we're constantly working with them to make sure that we're meeting their demand. Roger, there's been a lot of exuberance, shall I say, hype around defense tech names, and a lot of them make drones. And I'm interested as to how you continue to build a USP narrative here.

26:01What makes you different than the other drone companies? Yeah, look, I think we really focus in on a differentiated technology stack that allows our systems to be highly competitive on the modern battlefield. We're able to execute in highly contested environments where GPS is denied, communications are jammed, electronic warfare is being pervasively deployed by technical, sophisticated adversaries. And that technology differentiation is really how we distinguish ourselves and how we continue to bring top talent to the AVEX team.

26:33Caroline Hyde:AVEX indicated it's open$23 to$25, priced at$20 in an IPO that Bloomberg reports was more than 12 times oversubscribed. Roger Wells is AVEX's CEO. Thank you very much. Now, coming up on the program, shares of Netflix dropped pretty sharply as well after posting disappointing second quarter earnings forecasts. there's also a big departure. Someone with a long history of that company will have it next. It's halftime. This is Bloomberg Tech.

27:09Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. We are checking in on these markets because it's an extraordinary day from geopolitics. It looks as though the Strait of Hormuz is open according to Iran. Of course, as we move towards closer end to conflict, the world hopes, but we're down by 9.6%. If you're looking at oil, we've jumped ahead a little bit. So let's go back to the Nasdaq 100. Record high.

27:30Caroline Hyde:Yeah. Down 10 % on Brent. Tech is unstoppable in spite of the war in Iran. So many headlines. So Iran's foreign minister confirms the Strait of Hormuz is open. By the way, the Strait of Hormuz is a body of water in the Gulf and lots of ships carrying oil pass through it. More than oil. More than oil, yeah. Everything we need for chips. But that's why you see that big drop in Brent. And, you know, the oil, I guess, will start flowing a little bit more. And then, you know, broadly speaking, you know, tech is the focus for a lot of investors right now. And within that, you know, that bucket of the Nasdaq 100 for the first time, a 13-day streak since 2013, I think.

28:06Extraordinary.

28:07Caroline Hyde:Yeah. 2013 to go back that long. The sentiment, risk on sentiment to remain despite all the geopolitical headlines. But let's go to the AI headlines that continue to drive this market. And look, for some it's positive, for others it's negative. Figma down off by 6.4%. As we get, well, reality check that still AI might be disrupting the world of software. This time, Claude Design is what's coming out. Anthropic just relentless with the amount of announcements. Yeah, so look at that chart, the squiggly line, but the drop just after 11 Eastern is because the headline hit. Anthropic confirming that Claude Design is being launched and released.

28:43Caroline Hyde:It had been reported in the press earlier in the week, which also had hit Figma. But that's a pretty sharp reaction of AI displacing a platform that does design. Create polished visual work like designs, prototypes, slides, one pages and more. Keep an eye on Adobe as well, for example. Yeah, the story's not going to go away. Let's get back to Netflix. And Netflix is under pressure. And the stock down almost 10 % on track for its biggest drop since October, I believe, at one point on track for its biggest drop since 2022. The reactions to the numbers and a big departure, Geetha Ranganathan of Bloomberg Intelligence says in her React research, Netflix maintaining its full year outlook despite avoiding M &A costs may concern investors but reflects a cautious approach.

29:32Caroline Hyde:Geetha joins us now. You know, a lot of your colleagues and peers in the markets on the street pointed out that they kind of wanted to see Netflix raise the full year guidance. you know was there an expectation of that like why were we going into to the print thinking maybe they'll tell us things are better than they are yeah there was definitely a lot of you know elevated expectations going into the print and so you know that they just hiked prices in the U.S. and I think that definitely fed into that optimism there was also the thing of you know the M &A integration costs basically going away after They dropped the Warner bid.

30:11And so, you know, I think investors just naturally assumed that they would take up their operating margin, which they did not do. So, you know, this was just your classic case of when results were definitely good, but that's just not good enough, given that the street was expecting a whole lot more. Geetha, therefore, what holds back margin growth? Revenue is still looking relatively good, but perhaps a little more tepid than the street had anticipated. Is consumer sentiment the one being hit? Is it more they still have to deploy cash within their content? Because look, they're not getting the Warner Brothers Discovery content anymore.

30:44Yeah, no, that's a great point, Caroline. And it's exactly that. So it is elevated content spending this year. So historically, what we've seen for Netflix is content amortization in about the 6 % to 7 % growth range. This year, it is actually jumping pretty significantly. So it's going to be up 10%. They've guided to cash content costs of roughly$20 billion. So that's a pretty significant step up from prior years. And that's what is really kind of working its way into the tepid operating margin guidance. We're going to see the biggest step up happen in the second quarter. And this is really just Netflix kind of, as you just pointed out, Caroline, this is just them diversifying their content portfolio, You're kind of making all of these new investments into live content, into, you know, some of these sports games, if you will, video podcasts, all of that.

31:39And that is really costing them. But it's, you know, it's them just playing both offense and defense. Geetha Ranganathan, it's so good to have you on. Thank you from Bloomberg Intelligence. Ed, what have we got?

31:48Caroline Hyde:Yeah, many more news stories in the world of tech and it's time for Talking Tech. First up, Chinese regulators have fined leading delivery platforms in the country, including those from Alibaba, Pinduoduo and Meituan, for failing to screen unqualified merchants. Authorities imposed$528 million in fines and seizures, the largest since China's 2015 food safety law update. Plus, TV shopping network QVC has filed for bankruptcy as part of a plan of the struggling multimedia retailer to cut more than$5 billion of debt. In a statement, the company said it had more than$1 billion in cash at the end of 2025 to fund ongoing operations.

32:29Caroline Hyde:And OpenAI is rolling out an early version of a new AI model designed to accelerate drug discovery. The ChatGPT maker says its GPT Rosalind model targets life sciences research and will initially be offered as a limited preview to select business customers. The promise of health care is big when it comes to AI. Meanwhile, coming up, there's a big set of investment towards AI, potentially Sequoia Capital raising$7 billion for its latest expansion fund under this new leadership. We're on that next. This is Bloomberg Tech.

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35:53Caroline Hyde:Bloomberg reporting that Sequoia Capital, one of the largest and most prominent venture capital firms, has raised$7 billion for its latest expansion fund. It will target AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic. Natasha Masqueranis broke the story and joins us now. So like Sequoia raises funds relatively often, I would say. But what we're hearing is like, this is a big race, $7 billion. It's a very clear focus, later stage, mature companies. What else do we need to know? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, listen, this is the first fundraise we've seen since there's been a leadership change at Sequoia. So this is something that we've been tracking very closely.

36:32What is it going to look like under a new leadership with Pat Grady and Alfred Lin at the top of the firm. They came in at the end of last year. Right now, it looks like a lot more investing. This is about double the size of the last expansion fund that Sequoia raised in 2022 and comes in addition to$2.5 billion raised for its seed through growth investing last year. So just a lot more capital. And we're sort of seeing that writ large, aren't we? Klein and Perkins thrive. We know that others are in the market, potentially raising. You highlight iconic capital, potentially General Catalyst as well.

37:07Are all of them having to raise bigger and bigger funds because they need to write bigger and bigger checks to the bigger and bigger startups? Absolutely. I think right now there's a dynamic in venture capital where if you're a platform fund, you can't just be able to play in one stage. And so with this new capital, with Sequoia, it's for their latest stage investments. And it remarks back to some of their most successful investments. Wiz, which closed last month in a$32 billion sale to Alphabet, was something that Sequoia backed at the earliest stages, but continue to double down on. We've said that about Thrive.

37:39We're seeing that now about Iconic, a firm that I profiled today, backing Anthropic again and again. And so it's the new normal for funds to be having to add billions to their balance sheet.

37:49Caroline Hyde:OK, so, Natasha, let's show our audience who's leading this firm, right? The co-stewards, they're called. Not co-CEOs, not co-managing partners, co-stewards. There they are on the left of your screen. They're like Tweed. Yeah. Yeah. And they clearly have sartorial direction and synergy as well. But Alfred Lynn on the left, Pat Grady on the right. Just give the backstory of when they came in, the changes Sequoia made and set the scene for this new era at what is a very important and big venture firm. Yeah, absolutely. So last year, Roloff Botha handed the reins over to Alfred Lynn and Pat Grady.

38:25Now, Alfred Lynn was known as someone that was helping lead Sequoia's early stage practice. Pat Grady is someone that was known as leading Sequoia's later stage practice. Now we're seeing them both really be hand in hand and co-lead the firm together. And there's a few more changes. So we've reported on some shakeups on the early stage side of the house. We've also seen some people come back to Sequoia's fold. So most prominently, we saw Doug Leone, the former senior steward, so former top leader of the firm, come back into an active investing world. And we've also seen them beef out their growth stage investing ranks.

38:58So a lot of changes. And that's why really the new the new Capitol Hall is something we were so desperate to get to the bottom of, because we have just been wondering if we're going to see Sequoia refocus. Are we going to see them expand? And for now, you definitely can tell that what Alfred and Pat's top priority will be will be expansion. And to the bottom of it, you got with N. Natasha Mascarenas, always great reporting on the venture space. we appreciate it. Let's stick with that venture space because what we just posted actually for VC, record shattering,$267 billion in the quarter. But the data shows that the landscape is almost entirely consumed by the AI arms race.

39:37We don't want to call it that in this scenario. It's a race. While the rest of the ecosystem is effectively frozen because of geopolitical uncertainties. Joining us now is one of the architects of this report, Kyle Stanford, director of venture capital research over at PitchBook. Kyle, it's extraordinary how much money is being raised, but how much money is being spent on just a few companies? Yeah, it really is, right? And to your point of the data looking really great, and it does, but it really depends on where you're at. 91 % of the capital went to deals of 100 million or larger, so about 185.

40:08You had 73 % of that go to five companies, all AI, and if you include Databricks in there, you have investors that want exposure and LPs that want exposure to AI. And so what's getting left behind is the non-AI companies, whether it be your traditional enterprise SaaS that was hot in 2021 or, you know, different business models that are just not harnessing or not AI native like everyone wants. Everyone wants. So what happens? Is it a tale of totally two cities? Are there an awful lot of people out there who are receiving no funds, who are still languishing in down rounds or not even to raise funds at all?

40:42Are there these zombie companies out that call? Definitely. I mean, there's 25 % of the unicorns, you know, about 900 unicorns now in the U.S. 25 % of those haven't raised since 2022. In a market that's really fast and really hot, like we're seeing right now, if you were a strong company and were leveraged for raising another round, you would do that. And so those companies are still trying to find a way to, you know, maybe they are going to take a lower exit or, you know, find some way to go through a SPAC and reorganize themselves. But there's a lot of those companies that were strong and hot in the next big company in 2021 and 22 and have not raised since.

41:20And those are the companies that are really struggling in this market.

41:23Caroline Hyde:We're just reflecting, Kyle, that the data we're showing, the data you guys published is from the first quarter, right? And activity has been heavy more recently. You heard the reporting from Natasha and I last night, right? Our understanding from sources is Sequoia is doing$7 billion in an expansion to fund. But to go after that late stage, the AI companies, what do you infer from that? The necessity to have capital at those levels, I guess, because otherwise you're not buying in to the names that we're talking about. Yeah, there's a few things that tells me. One, companies are going to continue to stay private longer.

42:02And so those VCs that have access and exposure to companies that are then 15 years old and raising another private round are going to want to get into those companies again and continue to keep their stakes high. It also tells me that LPs want that exposure. They know these companies are not going to go public in the timely fashion that we might have seen five years ago or a decade ago. So they want to make sure that they have exposure to the Anthropics and the SpaceX's and the Databricks of the world. maybe not these ones specifically, but in the future.

42:32Caroline Hyde:Those companies, they're going to probably go public this year, right? Yeah. How does that impact everything? I think that impacts a lot, right? I think, one, we're looking at those companies as the kind of market indicators if the IPO market window is going to be fully open this year. We have seen, obviously, SpaceX confidentially filed. We have seen Discord filed in January, but hasn't gone any movement. There's not really a backlog or a pipeline of VC-backed IPOs because everyone's waiting for these big companies to go public to see what the public investors want to support. You see how Figma has traded today after Anthropic announced their design studio.

43:09That's the worry of a lot of these VC-backed companies. They're going to go public and they're going to not find the support for their high valuations and then have to contend with Anthropic and OpenAI launching something that's very competitive to their space.

43:21Caroline Hyde:Carl Stanford, Director of Venture Capital Research at PitchBook, back on Bloomberg Tech. Thank you very much. We just talked about it. Private markets are bracing for IPOs, soon to be public markets. Ahead of what's expected to be the biggest IPO ever, SpaceX has moved up a scheduled vesting date for shares awarded to employees. According to sources, it may be accelerated to as soon as next week. Let's get the details with Bloomberg Deals' Ryan Gould. I think the point here is that an accelerated vesting kind of makes those employees feel a little bit better about the mechanics of an IPO for them.

43:56Caroline Hyde:what they might be able to sell and, of course, lock up periods, etc. I think it gives them the comfort, I suppose, that they're part of the journey. And I think, given what's going on with Elon generally, I think his view is that the employees, the shareholders are all in unison. This is very much part of their success. So I think giving this sort of reassurance and confidence to SpaceX employees that they're going to be made whole, if you will, in terms of what they're able to buy or sell, I think is massively important just for unity and morale around what is clearly a massive mega milestone, not just for SpaceX, but for the world.

44:34I mean, not to put it lightly, this is going to be the most extraordinary IPO, in terms of scale, in terms of what the company itself has achieved. But will there be this moment where we're starting to worry about how much the current employees can lock in the money? What does it mean about the time frame? How quickly are we going to therefore be IPO-ing?

44:55Caroline Hyde:I mean, it's crazy to think that, you know, you're looking at a day now where the NASDAQ is up 1.6, 1.7. Everything is falling into place. But if you also put, you know, this employee, you know, resting schedule in the same light that you put the 30 % retail allocation in. I mean, it's all kind of, I mean, I don't think people fully understand the gravity of like this deal in particular. Right. I mean, 30 % for, you know, retail allocation and IPO as large as this. They're looking to raise$75 billion. I mean, that's a significant chunk. will change. So there's a timeline here. So what we're reporting is that SpaceX told employees that the vesting date would take place in April rather than May.

45:31Caroline Hyde:But what we're working toward is June. So set out the timeline and the mechanics of how we think this IPO is going to work. Right. So as soon as next week we could see this vesting date moved up. A public filing because they've already confidentially filed. The public filing could come, we hear, as soon as maybe the third week of May, which would then put them on track for that 15-day minimum cooling-off period the SEC mandates which would then then put them in line for the June listing that could come in sort of the second week of June. So that's like a matter of weeks. So, you know, by this time in a couple of weeks, we could be looking at this thinking like the whole global capital market looks entirely different.

46:08Caroline Hyde:Like not to mention the trimming and some of the stocks that's already going on to make way for this. And what's extraordinary is how much money has been made in the private markets and how much might therefore be made or not in the public markets. Bluebergs, Ryan Gould, across this IPO. We thank you. coming up, Apple's longtime marketing executive retires. Marking a change of the guard for a series of key product lines. This is Bloomberg Tech.

46:31Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely, according to President Trump. In a phone conversation with our own Bloomberg reporter, he said that Iran will not receive any frozen funds from the United States. This is breaking news from our own Kate Sullivan over at Bloomberg. We'll keep you abreast of the latest. But he says that the deal between, to end the conflict, Iran, US and Israel, most of their main points are finalized. It'll go pretty quickly, according to the president of the United States. S &P had a record, Nasdaq 100 had a record, Brent crude off by 10%.

47:03Caroline Hyde:Yeah, the stocks were at records and session highs anyway, but pushed even a little bit higher on those headlines. Another big story we're tracking, Apple's longtime marketing executive, Stan Ung, is retiring after 31 years with the company. He'd been in charge of a series of key product lines for the iPhone maker, like the Apple Watch, AirPods, Health, and Smart Home Initiatives. Bloomberg Senior Tech Editor Dana Warman is here with us on set. Another name leaving the world of Apple, one maybe people weren't familiar with, but important nonetheless. Yes, and it appears to be a friendly departure, but as you said, it's of a piece.

47:37There's been a big changing of the guard across both the Steve Jobs era and even, to some extent, the Tim Cook era. And this is not to say that Tim Cook is retiring anytime soon, but Bloomberg has reported really extensively that the company is really deeply into its succession planning and is preparing its successor. And this feels like just another drumbeat in a path that is going to culminate in Tim Cook himself leaving at some point. Again, not necessarily soon, but at some point. Not soon. Stan is soon. What did he achieve? I mean, he's so closely known with the watch, but also the iPod, the OG of it all.

48:19Yes, absolutely. He goes back way back, and even in his LinkedIn post announcing his departure, he said that one of the last things he did at Apple, on the Apple campus, was do a workout in the gym using his original iPod classic that he said was still working on a pretty good battery. But one thing that Mark Gurman did note in his report is that at Apple, at least, marketing executives aren't just in charge of the advertising of these products, but they have a hand in steering the product development itself. So that was interesting to me. And that's not to say that there won't be future AirPods, future Apple watches, and I'm sure that there are products in the pipeline for years ahead.

48:59But that just speaks to the influence that marketing executives at that level have at the company. Well said. Dana Wallman, always great to have you on on all things apple we thank you and there's another story we've got to get to over at intel they're actually hiring samsung executive sean han is about to join intel next month to become general manager of the company's foundry services in a bid to help win over customers for the foundry business and it of course comes as a company is trying to break into the outsourced chip manufacturing business currently dominated by tsmc and with samsung coming in as a destined second it's important with the reporting you've done on the terra fab yeah so like so intel

49:37Caroline Hyde:announced that it's joining must terra fab right and and generally this the stock story is amazing intel is back at its highest level since 2000 extraordinary and it's up for a third straight week and and it's just like has momentum but it that is the unproven part customers using its chip manufacturing technology and of course next week we'll find out because they have earnings uh you know how much progress they've made towards that 2000 to 2026 what a ride it has been to be with Intel and the fact that basically you're back at where we were in 2020, that January high before, of course, the world came to a standstill is where Intel was at.

50:13But what a pummeling the stock got in previous years. And then just last year, extraordinary up 80 percent. This year, we're already up 90.

50:20Caroline Hyde:Yeah, look, it's not just about capacity either. You know, the volume of chips available. It's about what they've always said is technology leadership and having the latest processes that can produce the best chips at the highest yield. The economics are brutal, but they just got to come out and say, oh, by the way, this is our customer. I'm not going to name one for them, but that's the story that we're looking for. We need the proof points. Meanwhile, that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech. Ed, you're sticking here in New York. I'll do a little New York weekend and we'll be back next week here on set.

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