OpenAI Becomes World’s Largest Startup

2 Oct 2025 · 43 min

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Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Tech - OpenAI Becomes World’s Largest Startup

Episode Overview In this episode of Bloomberg Tech, hosts Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow discuss significant developments in the technology sector, focusing on OpenAI's emergence as the world’s largest startup, Tesla's record vehicle sales, and Microsoft's substantial financial commitments to neocloud providers.

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Key Highlights

OpenAI's Valuation

  • New Valuation: OpenAI has reached a staggering $500 billion valuation following an employee share sale.
  • Investor Participation: Various notable investors, including Thrive, SoftBank, and Abu Dhabi MGX, acquired shares from current and former employees.
  • Employee Sentiment: Many employees opted not to sell their shares, suggesting optimism about future growth.
  • Financial Insights: Despite rapid revenue growth, OpenAI remains unprofitable due to high operational costs related to AI development and infrastructure.

Tesla's Record Sales

  • Sales Achievement: Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles in Q3, marking a record quarter.
  • Influencing Factors:
  • The impending expiration of U.S. federal tax credits spurred consumer purchases.
  • The company’s recent advertising strategy contributed to heightened sales.
  • Market Dynamics: Analysts highlight that U.S. sales drove the record numbers despite challenges in other markets like Europe and China, which faced competitive pressures.

Microsoft's AI Infrastructure Strategy

  • Commitments to Neoclouds: Microsoft has committed over $33 billion to neocloud providers to address the shortage of AI data center capacity.
  • Strategic Shift: By utilizing neocloud resources, Microsoft aims to manage costs effectively and maintain operational flexibility without heavy capital expenditures.
  • AI Data Center Demand: The growing demand for AI capabilities necessitates reliance on external cloud providers for computational power.

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Detailed Discussions

OpenAI's Growth and Future

  • Employee Insights: Shireen Ghaffari notes that while OpenAI's valuation is impressive, uncertainties remain regarding its long-term viability and operational challenges.
  • Market Context: OpenAI's valuation surpasses SpaceX, reflecting the booming interest in AI technologies amidst broader market concerns.

Tesla's Market Performance

  • Impact of Tax Credits: Analysts suggest that the expiration of EV tax credits created urgency among consumers, significantly boosting Q3 sales.
  • Future Projections: While the Q3 performance is commendable, market experts predict a potential slowdown as the market stabilizes post-tax credit rush.

Microsoft and Neocloud Strategy

  • Financial Flexibility: The strategy of partnering with neocloud providers allows Microsoft to avoid heavy upfront capital costs associated with building its own data centers.
  • Investment in AI: The substantial investment indicates Microsoft’s commitment to enhancing its AI capabilities and competing against other major players like OpenAI.

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Key Takeaways

  • OpenAI's position as the largest startup underscores the escalating interest and investment in AI technologies.
  • Tesla's record sales are significantly influenced by market dynamics like federal policies, but sustainability of such sales remains in question.
  • Microsoft's approach to managing AI infrastructure reflects a strategic pivot towards leveraging external resources to mitigate capacity constraints.

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Conclusion This episode of Bloomberg Tech provides critical insights into the current landscape of technology investments, particularly highlighting the rapid growth and challenges faced by leading firms in the AI sector. As OpenAI, Tesla, and Microsoft navigate their respective markets, their strategies will be pivotal in shaping the future of technology and innovation.

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Transcript

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0:01Ed Ludlow:The news doesn't stop on the weekends. Context changes constantly. And now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all. Hi, I'm David Gurra. Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg This Weekend. I'm Christina Ruffini. We'll bring you the latest headlines, in-depth analysis and big interviews. All the stories that hit home on your days off. And I'm Lisa Mateo. Watch and listen to Bloomberg This Weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people and culture. On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened in the markets and the world.

0:35Ed Ludlow:Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists, and key political figures to prepare you for the week ahead. Join us as soon as you wake up and bring us with you wherever your weekend plans take you. Watch us on Bloomberg Television, listen on Bloomberg Radio, stream the show live on the Bloomberg Business app, or listen to the podcast. That's Bloomberg this weekend, Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on February 28th. Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television, Radio, and wherever you get your podcasts.

1:09Ed Ludlow:Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.

1:18Ed Ludlow:Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.

1:28Caroline Hyde:This is Bloomberg Tech. Coming up, OpenAI becomes the world's largest startup with a$500 billion valuation following an employee share sale. Plus, Tesla's vehicle sales jumped to a worldwide record in the third quarter, a surprise increase after several quarters of sales slumps. How much did the EV tax credit expiration help? And how Microsoft aims to cope with a shortage of AI data center capacity, striking deals with so-called neoclouds. But first, we check in on these publicly traded markets that were at record highs, clinging to them as we speak. The Nasdaq 100 is up about five points. Now, notably, we've had a wall of worry coming towards the markets at the moment.

2:10Caroline Hyde:But there have been this desire to buy into chip stocks in particular. The OpenAI valuation that we'll dig into, the idea of the contracts that they're building with SK Hynix, with Samsung, all of that had really helped lift the stocks. I'm looking at that up 1.3%. But really, there's other stocks that are dragging the overall benchmarks a little bit lower, Ed. Yeah. Part of the argument is that it's Tesla that's doing that right. We had been higher pre-market when the delivery numbers broke. 497 ,099 EVs delivered in the third quarter. An astonishing turnaround, a huge beat against consensus.

2:42Caroline Hyde:But as we've been talking about for a while now, they started advertising in the quarter. They started emailing on a daily basis saying, by the way, the federal tax credit runs out. How big a factor was that, that it's an isolated quarter of an elevated proportion of sales? Let's go to private markets. Big piece of reporting from Bloomberg's Shireen Ghaffari. OpenAI,$500 billion valuation based on employee share sale to a really interesting group of investors. Remember, Shireen broke this story first on August the 6th, but now it's done. And there's actually a lot of interesting data in the report, Caro, about who opted to or not to participate if you're an employee that had two years of holding the shares.

3:23Caroline Hyde:And let's get straight to it with Shireen Ghaffari. Look, extraordinary scoop that first came in August. Now we get the real details. And perhaps those current employees and former employees not selling as much as they could have done.

3:37Ed Ludlow:That's right. So, you know, again, this is a record valuation for OpenAI and for just startups right now, surpassing SpaceX as the most highly valued startup. That being said, there was more, there could have been more units sold is what we're told. And actually employees chose not to take up all of that potential share sale. So, you know, it could indicate that employees are feeling optimistic about the future of the company and that the valuation could go even higher. But, of course, this is an ongoing story and there are still a lot of uncertainties as well in OpenAI's future, including its ability to go forward with the restructure.

4:21Caroline Hyde:When there is a tender or a secondary or any kind of financial transaction, Shereen, there's always a data room. Just take my word for it. And so I find the group of investors here really interesting. Third parties that were able to buy those shares from employees. Just run us through the list and any that caught your eye.

4:39Ed Ludlow:That's right. So many of them were expected. We have Thrive, also a former large investor, as well as SoftBank, another major partner. We also have Abu Dhabi MGX, Dragoneer and T. Rowe. And, you know, MGX is an interesting one, given we're seeing more money coming in from overseas, from the Middle East. into AI companies. And, you know, this is just an ongoing, as I find in AI, once one investment closes, it's the beginnings of another one. So we can expect these sizes to just get bigger and bigger in terms of funds going in and shares being sold.

5:16Caroline Hyde:I mean, that's what's extraordinary is the fact that they raised money, fresh money from SoftBank back in March. And the valuation has just spiraled even since then, Shereen, even as, for a minus of the data and the fundamentals, the company remains unprofitable. And at the moment, revenue is tiny in comparison to, say, Netflix, which is also worth about$500 billion.

5:38Ed Ludlow:That's right. So while we're seeing the revenue increase rapidly, they have something like 700 million users. At the same time, the company is also unprofitable. And that's because of the large costs to fuel, basically, the development of AI. There's huge data compute costs. There are these unprecedented data centers that they're building out. And there are researchers. All of that takes a lot of money. So, it's still a highly capital-intensive and unprofitable business, even though the revenue is growing at a very fast rate.

6:11Caroline Hyde:Bloomberg Shereen Ghaffari, it's Dev Day for OpenAI on Monday. And I think we're going to be able to pose questions that might give us some of the answers to what's really going on top and bottom line at OpenAI. Let's pivot from the private market side to the public side, because OpenAI's story is driving US equities to fresh highs. We've seen some pullback since the show started, but generally the idea was that the OpenAI valuation signaled a lot of optimism for AI across those public names. Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments, joins us now for more. There's a lot of life in secondary markets, right?

6:47Caroline Hyde:Shereen was running us through T. Rowe Price participating in that round. I know that this might not be your domain, but what did you make of the OpenAI valuation? And if someone came to you and said, hey, Nancy, I'm putting together an SPV or something like that, would you try and get in on OpenAI at this private level?

7:05Ed Ludlow:Yes, we would. Yes. And we're actually in the process of working with a firm to do just that. But we're also interested in SpaceX and XAI and many of the other names that are still private. And I think for retail investors, it's an opportunity. And then, of course, for the insiders, it provides liquidity, at least through the provider we're working with. Wait, Nancy, one sec, one sec.

7:29Caroline Hyde:Marguerite, bring up the chart. There it is. Okay. So, OpenAI, a$500 billion valuation. SpaceX, number two,$400 billion. And then, I don't see XAI on there, but I reported that XAI is raising money at a$200 billion valuation. Of those three, what's your top priority?

7:48Ed Ludlow:SpaceX is my greatest interest. I think we know the AI game and there's a lot of ways to play it. It's not a game, but the opportunity. And I really want to get more exposure to space. So we just launched a fund, a strategy that is focused on all of the above, quantum, space, nuclear robotics and spaces of particular interest to us.

8:12Caroline Hyde:Fascinating that you're looking at basically these valuations in the private side, as well as, of course, all the exposure that you build in the public side, Nancy. What draws you? Is it just too hard to ignore when you're seeing companies staying private for so much longer?

8:27Ed Ludlow:Yeah, well, right. I mean, Caroline, we used to have the Wilshire 5000 and now it's the Wilshire 3500. I think, you know, as an investor, my job is to look around and try to figure out ways to make money for my clients. When you're going through a transformative technological revolution like we are, you get these concentrations, you get higher than normal valuations. But that is not to say this cannot continue for some time. And as you know, I've drawn the analogy to the 1990s. I think the technologies we are seeing now are much more robust than just eyeballs on a screen, which was what we were measuring in the 90s.

9:05Ed Ludlow:So I'm excited about all the opportunities and really working hard to try to figure out ways to gain exposure because the private markets are open to a very elite group of investors. Certainly, we want to open it up to our clients as well.

9:19Caroline Hyde:Nancy, talk about the fundamentals that you like within these companies, because yes, you're saying valuations can continue up and to the right for a foreseeable future. You think it's underlying technology that gets us there rather than the market being a rationalist in some sort of hype cycle.

9:34Ed Ludlow:Absolutely. So just think back as far as Amazon. I mean, that was a valuable lesson for me as a value investor trained as a buy when things go down, valuation matters. I could never figure out how the company couldn't report earnings and continue to drive forward. I think that and so ultimately we became we participated in the name and learned a lesson that during certain periods of time, that's what you're going to see. And you have to depend on management. You have to be focused on the underlying fundamentals. And that's our job. And that's why we have a team of analysts that support me and the other portfolio managers at the firm.

10:11Ed Ludlow:So we're primarily focused on catalysts for outperformance in the soft side. We look at all the numbers that everybody else looks at on the quantitative side, But qualitatively, we're looking for catalyst for outperformance and strong management teams. And you can measure those over time. It's obviously a subjective decision, but we spend a lot of time on it.

10:32Caroline Hyde:Nancy, we're going to go very, very deep on Tesla in the next segment. But actually, as a team, when we were talking about today's show yesterday, your name came up, right? You join us all the time. 497 ,099 vehicles delivered in the third quarter, a record. The stock rose and now it's down almost 2%. just your reaction and to what extent you see the expiry of the federal tax credit being the principal factor?

10:58Ed Ludlow:Well, I do think it's a principal factor, Ed. I mean, I think there was some strength seen in China, which was good, or at least less deterioration. So I think that is a rebound that we're going to be watching, continuing to watch closely. But for us, and I've said this to you historically, we're interested in the name because of the energy business, which we've been talking about for two years. And I think now people are sort of, you know, excited about that business. We're interested, obviously, as everyone else is in FSD, they seem to be seeing really robust improvements. It may not be a linear acceleration.

11:34Ed Ludlow:It may just be at one point we see that FSD is at the levels we need. And then they've got 7 billion miles traveled. And that dwarfs Waymo. I live in Waymo land. You know, you can't stop at a stoplight. in Arizona without seeing four or five of them. And Tesla's way ahead on that. So they just need to catch up on the technology and they will because they have the data. So we're very excited about the new model, RoboTaxi, all of the others. And then, of course, Optimus, which I'm counting on as my home health care solution.

12:08Caroline Hyde:My kids asking me yesterday when we're going to be getting a robot in the home, Nancy, and I can see that we're all waiting on tenterhooks, but so too is the comp package for Elon Musk. It's tied to real deliveries of Optimus, of robo-taxis, 20 million EVs on the roads. Are you going to be voting in favor of that?

12:26Ed Ludlow:Oh, yes, absolutely. And the AI, you know, the XAI fundraise, we would love to see the companies meld together and get access to SpaceX and the XAI. We'll see. I mean, that's me talking, not Elon, but we'll definitely be voting in favor. I love when incentives for the management team or the visionary CEO are lined up with me and my shareholders. So we're very excited about the future of Tesla. And remember, it doesn't go straight up. It's a volatile name. We were buying at 240 in the spring during the tariff tantrum. We will buy again when the stock dips down. But it's a 6 % holding in our new strategy, which is the macro cycle opportunities.

13:10Ed Ludlow:And then in our growth strategy, it's a four and a half percent holding. So we're committed to the name. And, you know, we believe in Elon. Maybe I'll get a T-shirt made.

13:22Caroline Hyde:Well, when the space fund goes live, when you've got the money coming in for the private funds as well, do join us. I mean, you're always joining us and we love it. Nancy Tengler, CEO, CIO, that's the Tengler Investments. Stay well. Meanwhile, coming up, we're diving more into Tesla. into the vehicle sales that jumped through a worldwide record in the third quarter. We're going to be going into what's behind this, whether it's sustainable. Stay with us. This is Bloomberg Tech.

13:47Ed Ludlow:Hello, I'm Stephen Carroll. I'm in Brussels, where many of Europe's biggest decisions get made. And I'm Caroline Hepker in London. We're the hosts of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. We're up early every weekday, keeping an eye on what's happening across Europe and around the world. We do it early so the news is fresh, not recycled. And so you know what actually matters as the day gets going. From Brussels, I'm following the politics, policy and the people shaping the European Union right now. And from London, I'm looking at what all that means for markets, money and the wider economy. We've got reporters across Europe and around the globe feeding in as stories break.

14:24Caroline Hyde:So whether it's geopolitics, energy, tech or markets, you're hearing it while it happens.

14:29Ed Ludlow:It's smart, calm and to the point. And it fits into your morning. You can find new episodes of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast by 7am in Dublin or 8am in Brussels, Berlin and Paris.

14:41Caroline Hyde:On Apple, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

14:53Caroline Hyde:US customers help drive Tesla's third quarter sales to a record high as buyers rush to take advantage of federal tax credits before they expire. I want to get out to London and Bloomberg's automotive czar, Craig Trudell. Like data is really important here. OK, third quarter, 497 ,099 vehicles. The expectation was we'd see a drop year on year, even if it was a sequential improvement. This is an anomaly. This is like something happened in the quarter. Just explain it.

15:26Ed Ludlow:Yeah, you know, I think this is a surprise if you're looking at the consensus. And yet, if you sort of were watching closely to where estimates were coming in toward the very end of the month of September, a lot of sell side analysts were saying, we think these deliveries are going to be much higher than that. I think even having said that, you know, this is a surprise even for those who are, you know, bullish going into this print. And, you know, you do have to hand it to this company to have delivered more vehicles than they ever have. Even if there are some real questions about whether there's some staying power to these numbers without the$7 ,500 tax credit in the U.S.

16:04Ed Ludlow:That's going to be, you know, the I guess, you know,$420 question on the earnings call in a few weeks.

16:12Caroline Hyde:Ah, 420. Craig, I'm interested, though, like you are sat in the heart of the UK and indeed Europe has been against Teslas. Basically, we've seen sales destruction over there, in large part people blaming the politics of Elon Musk. Is that still the sentiment that you're seeing? Are you getting any other granular data that shows that maybe other regions in the world have liked the Model Ys and the upgrades of late?

16:37Ed Ludlow:Yeah, I mean, I think in terms of the way things have been trending in Europe, it's been very consistent. There's maybe some kind of marginal narrowing of the declines over here in Europe, but still substantially down in a market that is up substantially. And in China, you've seen, at best, shipments move sideways, flat, down by small percentages. In a market where BYD and Xiaomi and domestic players really are making a lot of noise, We did see just recently some loss of momentum on BYD's part, but that's from a standpoint of really just dominating their local markets. So sort of by process of elimination, we really can sort of come to this conclusion that the U.S.

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17:28Ed Ludlow:is really what drove this result for Tesla. We'll see to what extent Elon Musk is willing to sort of get into that. But I think we've already heard from him during the last earnings call that, you know, this could be a company that's in for a few rough quarters as a result of this pullback of support from the U.S. government.

17:46Caroline Hyde:Pretty much, Crow Trudell. Thank you, as always, for the thorough analysis. Let's stick with Tesla sales, bringing in Stephanie Valdez-Streetie. She is the director of industry insights at Cox Automotive. And just the larger picture in the U.S. first, Stephanie. It was but earlier in the week that we saw Jim Farley, CEO of Ford, saying the EV market in the U.S. is going to slump by half because of the policies currently being enacted here. And meanwhile, we see Tesla jump. But because of that EV tax credit expiry, potentially, what is the forward looking analysis of yours for U.S. EV sales for Tesla?

18:20Ed Ludlow:Yeah, definitely. We knew Q3 was going to be a record quarter, right, driven by policy, right? Everyone created a sense of urgency, whether it was dealers, OEMs. And so consumers reacted. So we're probably going to reach about 410 ,000, probably 10 % market share in the U.S. market. And Tesla is definitely taking advantage of that. But once again, that was policy driven. Moving into Q4, we're going to see a slowdown. However, I've already seen and you've probably seen some of the manufacturers are going to continue a$7 ,500 credit going into Q4 on leasing. Hyundai mentioned they're going to reduce their IONIQ 5 by, you know, 9 ,800 is the 26 model and continue to offer the 7 ,500.

19:02Caroline Hyde:So just very specifically, Stephanie, in this quarter that's just been reported, and in Tesla's case specifically, you see evidence that the consumer knew that the federal tax credit was running out and so took advantage of that to make a decision and either purchase or lease a vehicle?

19:20Ed Ludlow:Oh, definitely. Yeah. Like I think the consumers became very aware of this incentive. If you went to any online search website, you saw that, you know, the IRA tax credit was there. It was winding down. And I think definitely this sense of urgency created consumer reaction. And we're seeing that in the data. The numbers are still coming in for September in the US, but definitely going to be a record quarter and highest market share to date.

19:45Caroline Hyde:God, there's so many things that I want to poke around at. Like what sources inside Tesla told me in recent weeks was like, hey, have you been noticing the advertising we've been doing on YouTube and Instagram, something that Elon Musk historically is completely against? But I'm also like almost 500 ,000 vehicles in the quarter. Do you see that as just being a one-time thing? Would this be replicated? Because it has to if he's going to deliver 20 million vehicles over a 10-year period. That's the math, 500 ,000 a quarter.

20:18Ed Ludlow:Yeah, I think it's going to be challenging, right? Because I think a lot of consumers that were considering buying a vehicle, EV specifically, pulled ahead, bought it in Q3 because of the incentives. And so I think just we're going to see that slowdown coming in Q4. And we'll start to see the market stabilize. What's that natural demand for EVs? And I think it's going to be dependent on, for Tesla, right, once again, having some product, new product that's going to resonate with consumers. And then I think the other challenge for Tesla is navigating the changes in regulatory policy. You know, that revenue they've gotten from carbon credit will soon disappear.

20:54Ed Ludlow:And so how do they navigate that? And once again, I think they do have some opportunities with energy storage. They have their AI, robotaxi. So they have stuff in play. But it's navigating the short term when demand goes down and having not the product available, a new product that resonates with customers.

21:11Caroline Hyde:Stephanie, go global because we can with you. And what's so interesting is while the EV market is getting smaller here in the US because of policy, China is going up and to the right. Europe, it's expanding. But Tesla's foothold has not been. Can they turn that around?

21:26Ed Ludlow:I think they can if they continue. I mean, the Model Y, I think the six three row or the six seat Model Y is really doing well in China now. I think if they continue to, you know, once again, have new product. But I think the Chinese OEMs, you have BYD, Xiaomi that are really gaining market share. And I think Tesla has stiff competition. So I think it's going to come down to having product and being able to resonate that with the consumer there.

21:51Caroline Hyde:Stephanie Valdes, Stredi, Director of Industry and Sites, Cox Automotive. We really appreciate having you on the show. Caro, like check me on this. When we spoke to Robin Denholm, she was crystal clear, like the 20 million EV sales targets there for a reason. I went onto the Tesla IR website. All of their factories around the world are capable of building 2 million vehicles a year. So he's going to have to hit 500 ,000 every quarter. Like, am I understanding that right? And that's the deliveries. What I'm interested is production pulled back a bit as well. And tell us, is that about the change in the way that they're moving to different vehicles and they're thinking about increasing, improving Model Ys and Model 3s.

22:27Caroline Hyde:The data not in this press release on quarterly deliveries is inventory and inventory days. And, you know, look at that, actually. You can kind of work out using satellite imagery how many vehicles are already parked on a lot. Exactly. But, yeah. And then the share reaction is kind of weird, right? You know, I guess people are saying this was a one-time thing because of the tax credit. And the shares have done rather well. Yeah. Yeah, the September, we maybe have a little bit of a profit-taking moment.

23:00Caroline Hyde:It's time now for Talking Tech. And first up, AI language platform DeepL is said to be exploring a potential US IPO. Now, according to sources, the Google Translate rival, based in Europe, has held preliminary discussions with advisors on the listing, with the possibility of share sales taking place as soon as next year. Plus, a notorious ransomware group have claimed to have stolen data from a suite of Oracle apps. Now, the hackers claim to have breached Oracle's e-business suite, giving them access to finances, supply chains, and customer relationships. In one case, the group has demanded a ransom of up to$50 million.

23:34Caroline Hyde:And Elon Musk and X, they have settled with three former senior Twitter executives who said that they were wrongly denied$53 million worth in severance after the takeover. Now, the deal comes six weeks after Musk and X moved to settle a separate class action, alleging 6 ,000 laid-off workers were owed as much as$500 million, at least in severance. Ed. OK, coming up on the program, Microsoft copes with data center shortages through a$33 billion deal with Nebius Group. The idea is that if you can't do it with your own gear, look to the Neo Cloud. Stock down 1.6 % in the market. Nebius is up higher, but there's also a bigger picture story at play in the markets today about how optimistic or not we are about AI.

24:20Caroline Hyde:This is Bloomberg Tech.

24:27Caroline Hyde:Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. I'm going to take another look at Tesla. Look, we're down. When the numbers hit in pre-market, we were up significantly. Almost 500 ,000 vehicles delivered in the third quarter, but it's a one-time anomaly, and it's driven by consumers, particularly in the United States, flocking to Tesla vehicles because of the expiry of a federal tax credit. It's also a stock that was up 12 % year-to-date, had a rebound from April lows, and maybe there's a bit of pulling back here. I don't really know, but the consensus seems to be this was a one-time deal on what was a record quarter for deliveries, and the future isn't even about cars, is it?

25:03Caroline Hyde:I'm also looking at Microsoft. This is kind of interesting because there's some news flow about Microsoft. We're about to get to it. But the early part of trading in the session was actually about OpenAI's valuation,$500 billion per Bloomberg reporting in a secondary. And the simple logic that it's a signal of optimism for AI broadly, and it carried a lot of names with it. We're now down 1.6%, Caro. There's also the NeoCloud deals. And we've got to dig into that because it's a fascinating perspective of just the rampant demand for AI compute right now across the world. And to break that story down, is Bloomberg's Brody Ford, who has articulated and found out that basically there's been$33 billion spent by Microsoft on NeoCloud.

25:45Caroline Hyde:You're talking European players like Nscale, Nebius, there's also local player CoreWeave. Why would the AI data center, like, renter-outer that we all know for Azure be turning to others?

25:58Ed Ludlow:Yeah, it's kind of funky, right? It's like if I was paying somebody to write stories and I was still writing stories. I mean, it's like essentially because we have huge capacity constraints, right? Microsoft needs to get as many chips online as it can, both for its customers itself and OpenAI. And it's needing to kind of pull every single lever it can. And so it's emerged as a major customer for all of these names, like the Core Weaves and the Nebbias's, which have become, you know, very newsy in recent months.

26:27Caroline Hyde:It's like managing assets, right? And, you know, The point of a NeoCloud is it's dedicated to AI, either training or inference, and storage, running other software, that's a different thing. Talk to me about the figure of$33 billion, though. Is that news, is it something that we were able to work out because Microsoft doesn't disclose it in quarterly earnings or something like that?

26:49Ed Ludlow:So Microsoft has just kind of disclosed it in piecemeal ways, and likely it is going to be much higher than that$33. What we have been able to discover is what this capacity is actually being used for. And in many cases, it's for Microsoft to build their own AI models. And that's surprising because it's a larger amount of investment in their own internal AI teams than many had realized. And it points to them saying, man, we better catch up with the open AIs in Anthropics and have our own models on hand. And we're going to use the NeoClouds to do it.

27:20Caroline Hyde:And Mustafa Suleiman, who came from DeepMind, went to Microsoft with an, obviously, inflection being bought in this rather odd way. He's the man behind the consumer AI offering. He's, I mean, you found out that basically the first large language model they're building internally under him has been using CoreWeave's assets over in Oregon, I think it is. Which is another way of saying they're using NVIDIA to do it. Yeah, using NVIDIA via CoreWeave. Right. But also what's interesting is the numbers that you have to orientate yourself around because basically it allows Amy Hood not to have to write this all as capex.

27:54Ed Ludlow:That's a really important point, right? If you buy a bunch of servers, now you have to depreciate them. Now it's on your capital expenditures, not your operating, and investors want to see a good balance there. Microsoft's then able, too, when it's renting from NealCloud, to say if in five years we actually don't really need that many GB300s, we'd rather use some more Vera Rubens, bye-bye. We don't need to deal with all these servers that we don't have necessarily a use for. That's what it allows them to do, potentially.

28:23Caroline Hyde:Brody throwing around your GB300s, your Vera Rubins. Appreciate the reporting a lot. Has he bench pressed them, though? That is the question. For those uninitiated, NVIDIA once let me pick up a DGX, which is an 80 pound. We'll get to it another time. Let's talk about the investor perspective of Brian Kirschman, GQG Partners Portfolio Manager, who joins us now. GQG's portfolios have recently turned significantly underweight tech on concerns of deteriorating fundamentals. And a part of what Brody was discussing, right, I know that we can talk about Microsoft here because there's some exposure in the funds.

28:57Caroline Hyde:But the idea that you rely on the NeoCloud so it doesn't show up on the balance sheet in the CapEx, what was your sort of reaction to hearing that?

29:07Ed Ludlow:Yeah, so I think what it speaks to from a Microsoft perspective is sort of that CapEx sort of notion where you don't necessarily want to spend all of your CapEx on sort of an asset that could depreciate or may not necessarily be as advantageous for you on a go-forward basis. There's a lot of things that are evolving really quickly when it comes down to these things. But if I were to take a step back, and you had mentioned sort of we've become a little bit more cautious, so to speak, on sort of these names in general from an AI perspective. And I think one of the reasons for that is there's been a whole lot of spending on the CapEx side of things,$600 billion in spending on CapEx.

29:42Ed Ludlow:And really, if you take out the infrastructure spending side of this, there's only been about$30 billion in revenue that have been generated off of this. So our issue here is that there is a lack of headroom sort of returns that are coming through on a lot of these types of businesses over the course of time. Now, Microsoft, to its credit, has a software business. They have sort of steady earnings. They have been able to deliver some decent results over the course of time. But we are becoming more skeptical about sort of a lot of things on the AI side, where are these returns coming from? Anything open AI in particular?

30:11Ed Ludlow:Yeah, I'm sorry.

30:11Caroline Hyde:I mean, Brian, we're looking at a note that your team put out September the 11th. you rang that alarm bell basically saying, we believe that the sector stands at a significant inflection point. And everyone's making a one-way bet, as you see it, on AI mania. And they're ignoring the alarming fundamentals. For you, the alarming fundamentals are that there is a lack of revenue today. Is it not? Therefore, can you not just make that bet that eventually OpenAI will make$300 billion worth in revenue by 2030 that vindicates the amount that they have to spend on all this compute?

30:43Ed Ludlow:So I think it becomes hard because if you actually look at the data behind this, you look at OpenAI, they have about a 2 % conversion rate in terms of people that actually want to pay for the service. That means 98 % of people that use OpenAI aren't actually paying for it. So now they have 700 million users globally. About half of those are coming from the emerging markets. And what's interesting there, if you think about the unit economics of sort of cloud and I'm sorry, sort of the AI sort of side of things, is that this isn't like SaaS. So this isn't like a CRM business where you add additional users and it all sort of that revenue drops to the bottom line.

31:17Ed Ludlow:There is a high cost to compute that comes along with this. So you need to generate some sort of revenues off of each one of these users. Now with half of that user base coming from the emerging markets, a significant chunk coming from India, for example, if I can get a 5G telephone plan within India for less than$10 a month, do I really think that folks are going to pay$20 a month for a subscription to ChatGBT. Okay, here we go.

31:40Caroline Hyde:I like this because I think we're looking at the same data set. So the top story today is OpenAI being valued at$500 billion on the latest secondary round. But the big question here is where the future for OpenAI lays on subscriptions or on enterprise. The data point that I look at is that it has a user base. We know It's like 700 million monthly, right, Caro? How much of that user base is free and then converted to being a paying subscriber? Because that kind of answers all your questions.

32:11Ed Ludlow:Yeah, so that's exactly the stat that I was referring to. From what we've seen, only about 2 % of those folks actually convert over to being paying users.

32:19Caroline Hyde:2 %?

32:20Ed Ludlow:Which means 2%, yes. So that means that 98 % of folks that are using this actually don't find enough value to actually sort of spend money on this. Now, going back to that India data point that I was referencing earlier, if you think about those folks and you need to sort of charge, call it$20 a month for some sort of subscription to make this break even profitability or even come close to that. In India, you have, you know, Barthi Airtel that has a deal with Perplexity that offers this service for free across Barthi's. So it becomes really hard to see where the monetization path comes on a lot of these things over the course of time.

32:53Ed Ludlow:Now, the other side of this is on the enterprise side. So a lot of people say, OK, well, maybe it's more of a B2B sales. And there's a lot of things that people are investigating or looking at from the enterprise side in terms of I can use AI to get efficiencies and things like that. The MIT study, I think we all know that by now being quoted in terms of the lack of sort of effectiveness in a lot of those. We've talked to other tech consultants recently. In fact, one of the big three consultant firms said that 85 percent of the projects that they're working on. So the 400 projects they've done on a year to date basis, 85 percent of those projects were absolutely useless.

33:26Ed Ludlow:I said 15 % generates some sort of benefit.

33:29Caroline Hyde:You're literally sort of echoing exactly the conversation that we had with Syntheja's CEO founder yesterday saying basically only about 15 % or even vaguely working and only 5 % actually working well. But Brian, can you not think that eventually they will work? And that's actually more to implementation issues rather than actually the fact that they're not adding value.

33:52Ed Ludlow:so i think you have to show me sort of the math and the monetization and then the pathway for that working there's a lot of data organization that needs to happen there's a lot of things that need to happen to get to that point and what we're seeing in terms of large language models is we're kind of peeking out in terms of what the capabilities are and you saw that sort of transitioning from gpt4 to gpt5 it's not simply you throw more compute at the problem and you solve bigger and more complex large language models there's more post-training types of things that are coming through and you're seeing that the models are actually peeking out in terms of their effectiveness.

34:26Ed Ludlow:And at the end of the day, these are extrapolators. So you're guessing what the next letter is, what the next word is based on a large training set. It can't think for you and it can't sort of make those decisions for you. And I think you're starting to see that within the enterprise side of things. Now to pivot to an even bigger question here is where has this spending actually come through and where are we actually seeing the money spent? And that is actually more on the hyperscaler side of things. So actually providing the cloud services where the data is coming through and where you're paying for it on the cloud side of things.

34:57Ed Ludlow:And this is also fairly concerned.

34:59Caroline Hyde:I'm sorry to jump in because we'll run out of time, but linked to that, including the top line growth discussion, what we've asked private market and public market participants a week is their assessment of the role debt is playing in all of these infrastructure projects and how worried or not one should be about that.

35:16Ed Ludlow:Yeah, so debt or no debt, one of the points that I was trying to make earlier was that if you look at the pricing dynamics within cloud, they're coming under a lot of pressure. And there's a lot of increased competition that's coming through. And I think that's where we're really struggling on a lot of these things, where you have Oracle coming in and undercutting price by 40 % to 70 % on a lot of these enterprise deals. And you're seeing that dragging down in terms of the pricing across a lot of the cloud players, including like an AWS and things like that. So it becomes a less profitable venture.

35:46Ed Ludlow:The switching costs are becoming a little bit lower and the economics aren't quite as good. It's becoming more commoditized. And that's where we really struggle because there's a whole host of investments that's happening in this area. And it's becoming increasingly commoditized, similar to the fiber build out, so to speak, back in the dot-com boom and bust cycle.

36:02Caroline Hyde:The commoditized element of concern. What about the circularity argument that we keep hearing? And that feeds into the debt question in many ways.

36:11Ed Ludlow:Absolutely. So then the other question to ask is if this is such a fantastic investment on a go-forward basis, why do you have participants in the ecosystem that are actually funding their customers? And then those cash flows are then coming back to them. So then a lot of the sort of obscure sort of arrangements and deals as well in terms of special purpose vehicles, JV structures, where are you putting some of these assets into other sort of places where you can depreciate the debt or you can depreciate the assets within those other vehicles? and it's not sitting directly on your balance sheet.

36:42Ed Ludlow:So this tends to happen later in a cycle where you start to see a little bit more aggressive accounting coming through and you start to see some of these things that are starting to become a little bit more obscure. That has us concerned that we can't see a true sort of trajectory where the economics are coming through. That's what has us concerned right now.

37:00Caroline Hyde:And while you've gone underweight, Brian Kirschman, great to have you. Come back soon. GQG Partners, we thank you. Coming up, Apple hits pause on revamping its Vision Pro headsets. We discuss the rivalry with meta. This is Bloomberg Tech.

37:39Ed Ludlow:That is your legacy, Paul, and we speak to those in-house experts every day. They are Bloomberg's go-to authorities on sectors, companies, and legal processes. And we do it all live each weekday, then bring you the best conversations in our daily podcast. So be sure to search for Bloomberg Intelligence on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. Listen in the afternoons on your way home from work to catch up on the market news you miss during the business day. That is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. I'm Scarlett Fu. And I'm Paul Sweeney.

38:05Caroline Hyde:Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts. Apple is said to be ditching plans to revamp its Vision Pro headsets. Instead, the iPhone maker is said to be looking to fast track and develop smart glasses to rival Meta's Ray-Bans. That's the reporting. Let's get to the analysis of Apple's entry into the smart glasses category of Anaragrana, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior tech analysts. They have a lot on their plate right now to shift a new generation of handset, of smartphone. but have you modeled for the idea that they enter a new category the smart glass away from augmented

38:40Ed Ludlow:in vr no not yet then we have to see what it is we have to see what kind of potential reception it's going to be i think meta has a massive lead here so you know you just can't sign off just because it's an apple product that it's going to do well i think it's going to we have to see the details and and before we start to model any you know kind of shipments should they be fast tracking I mean, it is, but at the end of the day, a lot depends on the models that go into it. So, AI is a very big, on-device AI is a very big part of any of these edge products. And I think, as we know, Apple has to get that thing first right before they can move on to some of those features.

39:19Caroline Hyde:Anurag, I've been reading your latest research, wait times, inventory, handsets of the iPhone 17 generation. Your conclusion?

39:26Ed Ludlow:Yeah, I think that's a good part is the base model is doing very well. The Pro is doing very well. But iPhone Air is not at all doing well. And frankly, that was the one model we thought could get some traction. But it seems like the battery life is an issue there. And the second piece could be it's not available in China right now. And that could be another driving factor.

39:45Caroline Hyde:Must read, always. Bloomberg Intelligence. Anna O 'Grana, thanks so much for spending time with us. Meanwhile, Peloton shares. Let's talk about how they've performed after yesterday. They've continued to be on the downside after unveiling revamped hardware, software, along with new higher prices for its equipment and subscriptions. We spoke with Peter Stern, Peloton CEO, yesterday about the new features.

40:06Ed Ludlow:We are focused both on existing members as well as non-members. For existing members, they're getting so much today. We are introducing for everyone, regardless of when you bought your equipment, the benefits of Peloton IQ, and that's just included in your membership. We are now including a new acquisition that we did, a company called Breathwork, because we know the power of breathing and how it can help people with stress and anxiety and depression and improve heart rate variability and improve blood pressure. So everyone's getting that. Major partnerships, for example, one with the Hospital for Special Surgery to focus on injury prevention and rehabilitation.

40:44Ed Ludlow:All of these things happen for existing members. But if you're not an existing member, there has never been a better time to become one with the launch of this all-new equipment lineup, the cross-training series. now we're delivering the benefits of both cardio and strength because we know right that adults should be doing a couple of hours at least a week of cardio and two days of strength training every week you can do that now all with one piece of equipment that makes it super easy it's almost

41:12Caroline Hyde:in many ways like cross training is the way that which you're sort of identifying it but if i look at the analyst notes and maybe the reaction from the stock is because a lot of this has been baked in you've already given us full year forecasts that in many ways talk about what churn you're expecting, but what's subscriber growth? What do you think this will spur in terms of subscriber growth?

41:30Ed Ludlow:So we knew, of course, as we went into this year, what we were going to be launching. And we were able, as you point out, Caroline, to bake all of that into our guidance for the year. But we also included in our guidance that as the year progresses, we will be inflecting back toward growth. And that's a big, big step for us as a company. You know, we had a couple years where we've been down as we have regrouped after the pandemic. And we are now in such a good place where you see us having reignited our innovation engine. Of course, our customer love has never left us. Customers really just appreciate what Peloton does for them and in particular have that deep connection with our instructors.

42:12Ed Ludlow:So we're building on that foundation and now feel even more confident about our future than ever before.

42:18Caroline Hyde:That was Peloton CEO Peter Stern speaking to Caro in a big conversation.

42:28Caroline Hyde:Who will be the next CEO of Disney? The search is on. And right now, the board is focused on four internal candidates, including Josh DiMaro, Dana Walden, Alan Bergman, and Jimmy Pitaro. Now, this is the company is getting ready to name a new CEO early next year. But it sounds as though conversations are starting to steer towards one particular name. Lucas Shaw has the details. Why, after Bob Chapek, would it be deemed that the person in charge of experiences and parks is the right pick, Lucas?

42:58Ed Ludlow:Well, look, it's both about personality and the future of Disney. You look at where Disney's putting all of its money going forward. It's into that parks and experiences division. Most of the CapEx over the next decade is going there, whether expanding existing parks or building new parks. And Josh is also a very different personality than Bob Chapek, right? He seems to have more facility with other parts of the business. He frankly looks like a Disney CEO, as weird as that may be to sound, or as weird as that may sound. And he is just seen as very well-qualified relative to the other candidates in the business and a Disney lifer, which matters at a company that has a very distinct culture.

43:38Caroline Hyde:He was around and hanging out in Sun Valley in July, saw him. The Screen Time team gave a detailed report about a breakfast that took place, Lucas. I think it's worth you explaining to the audience what happened and why it's significant.

43:53Ed Ludlow:Well, Bob Iger, the current CEO of Disney, who's been at the company for more than two decades, was having breakfast with someone who said what many in Hollywood are already thinking and saying, which is Josh is going to have the job, and said something positive about how he would do it. and Bob reacted very negatively, insisting that the board has not made a decision. And there's two important things to know about this. One is that Disney as a company, even though everyone in Hollywood believes that Josh is now the clear front runner, the company is insisting it has made no decisions and it's not going to make any news about this until early next year.

44:32Ed Ludlow:The other is that Bob Iger, who has been pretty involved in succession the last few times, which have not, processes that have not gone well, is said to be more marginalized this time because the board knows they need to get it right. And one way to get it right is to not have the current CEO as involved as he has been. And so I think this is just a source of great frustration for Bob who doesn't want to be seen as a lame duck but also doesn't have as much control over this as he has.

44:57Caroline Hyde:Briefly, Lucas, I just want to switch gears to Netflix. It's down for four straight days now. There is growing anxiety about what's happening over on X and Elon Musk.

45:08Ed Ludlow:I mean, maybe growing anxiety among a few investors. I'm not detecting that with my sources at the company, most of whom would point out that it's a little bit ironic for someone who's been a free speech warrior to browbeat them for a television show that was released like three to five years ago.

45:26Caroline Hyde:Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw who leads the Screen Time team thank you so much that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech but Screen Time returns next week live from Los Angeles you gotta tune in conversations with the best of the entertainment industry including Jimmy Kimmel Caroline yeah cannot wait to go cannot wait to hear the conversations Lucas is going to conduct to many others do not in the meantime forget to check out our podcast find it on the terminal as well as online on Apple Spotify and iHeart. This is Bloomberg Tech from New York.

46:24Ed Ludlow:too. I feel a little bit guilty about it, but everything from$40 ,000 EVs to exotic half million dollar supercars. We also speak with the insiders who shape the automotive industry from the top CEOs and collectors to visionary designers and racing champions. Search for Bloomberg Hot Pursuit on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Maybe you listen while you're on your weekend drive, maybe go into cars and coffee. Listen to us talk about what we are driving this week. That's Bloomberg Hot Pursuit. I'm Matt Miller in New York. And I'm Hannah Elliott in Los Angeles. Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts.

From the publisher

Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow discuss OpenAI becoming the largest startup after it closed a deal allowing current and former employees to sell shares at a $500 billion valuation. Plus, Tesla's vehicle sales jumped to a worldwide record in the third quarter as US buyers got in before US tax credits expired. And Microsoft has inked more than $33 billion in commitments to neocloud providers, as it aims to cope with a shortage of AI data center capacity.

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