In short
Bloomberg Tech discusses SpaceX’s IPO pricing and demand, plus AI infrastructure spending pressure at Oracle, and how AI is affecting markets and costs (including chip-driven inflation).
Key claims
SpaceX IPO demand topped $70B from retail alone, implying retail oversubscription (reported as ~3x to 4x). SpaceX is using an atypical fixed-price, fixed-size “private deal” style process rather than a traditional price range. Starship is central to launching up to ~1 million “data center satellites” for enterprise AI, though Starship reusability timing is uncertain. Oracle shares fell after higher-than-expected capex raised concerns about AI infrastructure returns and margins.
Notable examples
IBM said AI resolves 94% of HR questions for its 300,000-person workforce. GoPuff launched a voice/image AI shopping assistant (“Go”) built with XAI models, reporting early increases in basket size and frequency.
Guest backgrounds
Brett Winton, Chief Futurist at ARK Invest; Alexis Ohanian, founder of 776 and Reddit co-founder; Brody Ford, Bloomberg reporter; Danny Berger, Bloomberg reporter; Christina Hooper, Chief Market Strategist at Man Group; Rafael Ilishayev (co-founder/co-CEO) of GoPuff; Ender Current, Bloomberg reporter; George Osborne (via interview) former UK Chancellor and OpenAI head of countries; Brian White, Piper Sandler tech investment banking.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOSpaceX IPO Insights
1:52 to 3:21
Discussion on SpaceX's IPO and its massive retail demand.
“SpaceX gears up to finalize its IPO pricing today.”
Retail Demand and Market Mechanics
3:21 to 4:52
Exploration of the unusual process surrounding SpaceX's IPO.
“Almost, it feels like we've been building to this crescendo moment for a very long time.”
The Future of SpaceX and AI
4:52 to 8:06
Discussion on SpaceX's new direction and the integration of AI.
“What happens likely after market close today?”
Brett Winton on SpaceX's Business Model
8:06 to 10:00
Interview with ARK Invest's Brett Winton about SpaceX's potential.
“And yes, all of this relies on Starship.”
SpaceX's Revenue Projections and Profitability
10:00 to 14:00
In-depth analysis of SpaceX's revenue potential and profitability timeline.
“Okay, and for AI, one needs data centers.”
Exploring SpaceX's Financial Landscape
14:00 to 17:06
Discussing SpaceX's financial situation, potential profitability, and competition in AI and satellite technology.
“25 ,000 percent has been returned since Tesla went public.”
Oracle's AI Investment Challenge
18:52 to 24:43
Analyzing Oracle's recent performance and challenges in delivering on AI promises with Brody Ford.
“Shares having their worst day in six months.”
The Impact of SpaceX's IPO on the Industry
24:43 to 28:00
Alexis O'Hanian discusses the significance of SpaceX's IPO and its implications for the space economy.
“But at the end of the day, I do think what we're talking about here is creating very real value.”
The Impact of AI on Industries and Sports
28:00 to 30:24
Exploring how AI enhances various industries and its implications for live sports.
“well as or better than even some of the most senior experienced developers and really augments the output of folks.”
Market Responses to SpaceX and Inflation
30:24 to 33:09
Analyzing how the SpaceX IPO influences stock markets and inflation trends.
“Ed Caroline, Alexis Ohanian, the founder of 776 and Reddit.”
Show all 17 chapters
Retail Investor Dynamics and Market Volatility
33:09 to 40:43
Discussing the role of retail investors in shaping market trends and their influence on IPOs.
“I mean, the official data that we had yesterday, to your point, showed that the technology and computer components part of the inflation indicators was actually up by just about 15 % from a year ago.”
GoPuff's Partnership with SpaceX AI
40:49 to 42:01
Understanding GoPuff's innovative use of SpaceX AI in enhancing its shopping experience.
“As SpaceX heads towards its IPO tomorrow, investors are betting on more than rockets and chatbots and satellites.”
Consumer Shopping Experience with SpaceX
42:01 to 46:22
Learn about the innovative consumer product co-developed with SpaceX that personalizes shopping experiences through AI and voice.
“but in fact, it's a co-developed experience where it's a whole new consumer product where you can shop via voice.”
Governments and AI Adoption Challenges
46:22 to 47:15
Explore the challenges governments face in adopting AI technologies and how quicker adoption can lead to national benefits.
“but there's a lot to talk from governments around the world at the moment about adopting AI.”
Overview of SpaceX IPO and Market Reaction
47:15 to 48:26
Discussion on the unusual aspects of SpaceX's IPO, including record retail orders and market demand.
“We're going to talk through the mechanisms of this public market launch next.”
Pricing and Demand Dynamics of SpaceX IPO
48:26 to 51:10
Delve into the pricing strategies for the SpaceX IPO and the implications for investors, particularly retail.
“That's just one of the rather unusual things about this listing.”
Future of SpaceX and Investment Strategy
51:10 to 52:20
Understand SpaceX's future capital needs and the role of advisors in navigating investment opportunities.
“To you, how much of a signal of that is that they will very quickly go back to the markets and raise more money through any mechanism available?”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00You have invested in artificial intelligence. Maybe you have pilots or even proofs of concepts that show real promise. The next opportunity is scaling that success across the business. At EY Consulting, we help organizations redesign how work gets done so innovation can move beyond the nascent stage. By addressing architecture, operating models, and governance, we help AI deliver real, lasting value at scale. When AI fits how you actually work, that is EY Consulting. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises.
0:34Caroline Hyde:So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM. Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time.
1:18So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.
1:32Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.
1:41Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.
1:51Caroline Hyde:This is Bloomberg Tech coming up. SpaceX gears up to finalize its IPO pricing today. This is it offers attracts more than 70 billion dollars in orders from retail investors alone. Plus, Oracle is under pressure after the company reported higher quarterly capex than expected, raising concerns about the returns on AI. And 776 founder and Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian joins us live from Super Return in Berlin later this hour. First, Ed, with us both here in New York, we check in on these markets that we see the bounce back continue to an extent. NASDAQ 100 up 0.3%. We're coming down from earlier highs.
2:30But still, there seems to be a lot of muscle memory back in the memory perspective. We've got semiconductors up 2.4%. If you're looking at that SOX index, we are buying back into the hardware. But it's not all pretty out there if you're looking at certain names amid the geopolitical angst as well.
2:45Caroline Hyde:Okay, so the big earnings story is Oracle, right? It's down 12%, basically. Falls the most in six months. And everyone is still worried about how much it costs to get data centers built. And it's so funny, because out there in the market, in the AI trade, the same anxiety exists on the other side of the table. You can't get it built fast enough. Give us the compute. We're so compute constrained, but we're going to dig into that a lot more later in the hour. There's still only one story in town. There is, and it's why you're in town. It's why we all gather together in town because we've got the big story of the day of the week of months.
3:19SpaceX's IPO is upon us. Almost, it feels like we've been building to this crescendo moment for a very long time. Bloomberg's IPO reporter, Bailey Lipschultz, joins us around the desks. Space reporters in town, Lauren Grush. And look, you've been along this ride with us for many a month. Lauren, what does this mean when we're just galvanizing the amount of demand, when we're starting to see that retail investments are so extreme and order books are filling up, but this is a space story. What does it mean for your industry? Well, it has become something more than a space story. If I had my bets on how SpaceX would IPO, I do not think I would have had it IPO in this kind of current form, right?
4:01We were told they would never IPO until they had achieved Elon's dream of going to Mars. Now it's this hybrid rocket telecom AI company. But I just think it speaks to the value that SpaceX has provided up until now as a launch provider, as this telecom satellite operator. You know, it's hard to really understate the value that this company has brought to our space program and now also to, you know, the telecom business as well. So it's hard to quantify, but I think you're seeing it with these, you know, astronomical numbers, if you are. Sorry, I'm all the puns.
4:39Caroline Hyde:You know, this is out of this world, right? This is also unusual. Like, Bailey, you and I have been sort of banging our heads on our desks because there's a process to it. it's an atypical process that's playing out. But catch the audience up on the mechanics, I guess. What happens likely after market close today? What happens tomorrow? And where we think the numbers stand. And then we can get to the kind of more intergalactic theme that we want to. We just got to look back a week ago. They came out with a fixed price. Abnormal thing here in the US. That doesn't normally happen. No, normally you come out with a range.
5:11You want to walk Wall Street up to it. You want to start low, then come up size, raise the number of shares, raise the price. Baking a big pop. Elon and company over at SpaceX said, we're going to treat this like a private deal. This is the price. This is the size. Are you in or are you out? So that's been playing out for the last week. The bankers closed the formal order books yesterday at around four o 'clock. They're all meeting today, deciding who's going to get what. They're eventually going to take that to Brett Johnson and Elon Musk and say, this is what we're thinking. Allocations are expected to go out this evening, early tomorrow morning.
5:42People are going to find out either they got zero or Maybe they got billions of dollars worth of shares. And then tomorrow, the fun will start to take place when we start seeing where shares are indicated, probably in the 10 o 'clock hour. Expectations are we'll get first trade sometime later in the afternoon. And we'll see if the plumbing holds up because we, again, have never seen a deal of this size. We've never seen a deal of this size with retail being what it is with Robinhood and others. And Bailey, you've been front and center, along with Ed, breaking the detail on how much demand there is and what allocations thus far we're anticipating.
6:14So it's going to be slightly less to an international perspective. Japan's still getting a couple of billion or more. But talk to us about how much retail demand there is, how much they might be allocated, how much demand there is coming from the Middle East and from U.S. investors. So we've put out, just starting with retail, we put out and broke this morning more than$70 billion in demand. Probably well more than$70 billion in demand. So you think about that, you're talking at least three times oversubscribed from retail, which means they have that cash in the bank and are able to buy those deals.
6:40Caroline Hyde:They could have done this IPO just on retail. Which is crazy. If you told people a year ago that SpaceX was going to, Lauren, please disagree with me. This has been less than a year, less than a year that this all kind of came together, I feel like. This has come together quickly. We've seen and Bloomberg has reported about the demand from the Middle East. We've seen and reported on potential anchor demand. And when you kind of stitch all that together, the four times oversubscribed number kind of seems like a no-brainer, especially because people on the buy side inflate their numbers because maybe you put in for half a billion dollars, but you really want to get 10 million.
7:11Caroline Hyde:At least you're getting shares. Right. but it's something that we haven't seen before. We're going to get to this in a moment with our guests, but you and I also reported with the team that pre-float, they also got basically investment grade ratings for the credit agencies, which I think is a big indication that this company will raise money post thing. But I want to go to Lauren, because can we just all remember there is a story here that's not about money. It's about a launch system and spacecraft called Starship and data centers in space. Would you kindly, Lauren, just summarize the plan here for SpaceX.
7:44Right. It almost represents an entirely new direction for the company, this idea that they're going to put up to one million data center satellites into space to do complex computing for AI. I mean, as we mentioned, this wasn't even on our radar in terms of what SpaceX is going to be doing more than a year ago. And now it seems to be the new direction, the future of the company. And yes, all of this relies on Starship. Starship is that a gargantuan rocket that they're building in South Texas. It was meant to, or it is meant to fulfill Elon Musk's AI, or a Mars dream, but now it's also critical for the AI dream too because it's going to be needed to launch these AI data center satellites at scale.
8:26And, you know, as we've noted, the development road has been a tad rocky for Starship. Not saying they can't get there, but it's still unclear when they will unlock full reusability.
8:39Caroline Hyde:Bloomberg's Bailey Lipscholz and Lauren Grosh, just incredible reporting to date. And obviously the next 24 hours are going to be a lot. Thank you very much indeed. Much of SpaceX's growth forecasts actually hinges on ideas that seem straight out of science fiction. But backers of Elon Musk says he's pulled off the unbelievable before. Brett Winton is the chief futurist at ARK Invest, probably one of the most prominent institutional supporters of Musk's firm. Brett, it's great to have you back on the show. and like actually as a place to start, I wanted you just to kindly remind us of how ARK invested in SpaceX, the sort of venture mechanism that you have.
9:16Caroline Hyde:And then we'll go into the thesis. Yeah, so SpaceX AI is the largest position in our venture fund, which is an interval fund that anybody, not just the rich, can invest in. And we did that because, as you can see from the retail demand for the IPO, People understand the potential power of these innovation-focused companies, and we think that everyday people should be able to get access to these AI exposures, including OpenAI, Anthropics, SpaceX, which are the top positions in the fund. And so we've invested in SpaceX as long as the vehicle's been available. And from the inception of ARK, we had reusable rockets as a breakthrough disruptive technology, And so I've done work all along the way demonstrating how being able to reduce cost of launch from$10 ,000 to$1 ,000 to, we think, much less than$100 with Starship actually unlocks huge market potential, certainly on the Starlink side and kind of as a second stage on the AI side.
10:21Okay, and for AI, one needs data centers. We need, therefore, maybe data centers in space. This is the entire pitch that we now go through. Your workings, your numbers, your thesis on orbital data centers, Brett. Well, what's interesting about the SpaceX IPO is you actually don't need the AI business to really work that well in order to actually get a great return on kind of just the Starlink business. So, you know, Elon and co, they are saying they're going to be able to launch tens of gigawatts per year by the late 2020s. So an easy way to think of a gigawatt, you can rent it out at the current market rate over the long term.
11:04It's something like$15 billion per gigawatt. So imagine launching tens of gigawatts times$15 billion. So$300 billion in incremental revenue in any individual year that you're doing that. The reality of their AI business today is on a blended average basis, they have just rented capacity to Google and Anthropic for just a little under$40 billion per gigawatt. So actually serving it as an infrastructure as a service provider could be a wildly lucrative business for them because they can build assets on the ground so efficiently. And once they launch into space, they can build it efficiently.
11:41Caroline Hyde:You know, Brett, like you are, as a firm, regarded as some of the most bullish on Elon Musk, like the individual and the plan that they outlined in the prospectus. But there, of course, are risks, right? You know, Musk posted on X last night this idea that one million tons to orbit will be possible in roughly five years. Starship on paper can do 150 metric tons on paper, right? Do the math. That's 1 ,333 launches a year every year for five years to do that. You would concede, right, that this is a long shot. Well, he always lays out super ambitious targets for his companies because that's the way he's found to make his workforce most effective at actually delivering world-changing technologies.
12:33Think about it this way. Just look at the Starlink business and imagine instead of... Look at SpaceX. Imagine instead of launching Falcon 9 rockets, I'm launching Starship rockets at the same cadence filled with Starlink satellites. That alone would get me in two years of launching to roughly a little under$200 billion in revenue. So you don't have to make an assumption that the company is going to be launching at even 1 ,000 launches a year in order to get into the kind of mostly on Starlink$300 to $400 billion in revenue by 2030. So there's this discourse out there that, hey, you know, this company on a price to sales basis on the immediate term looks very expensive and poor retail is investing in this thing because they don't understand.
13:27The whole point of capital markets is you raise capital and then you deploy it in high return on invested capital businesses. And Starlink alone is, it's, you know, a six month cash on cash return for five year length satellites. They're going to spend a half billion dollars building or launching a rocket filled with satellites and acquiring the customers. And it should generate them a billion dollars plus per year over the five year life of the satellite. So that's a great, great business. So, Brett, I mean, unarguable if you think about how much you return. 25 ,000 percent has been returned since Tesla went public.
14:05But what is also unarguable is, as it stands, SpaceX net lost$4.28 billion on revenue of$4.69 billion in the first quarter. When does it become positive? Does it need to become positive? Are you happy at being loss-making for the foreseeable? Because the revenues are just going to go so astronomically high. No, no. I think that profitability, at least as we have it modeled, happens very quickly as they launch the Starlink satellites. It really depends upon how much capital they are throwing at terrestrial data centers to try to catch up with the frontier labs in terms of Grok's capability. You can build an amazing business just basically renting compute to others and running Starlink.
14:49But there's clearly both an ambition and a higher margin in actually kind of like competing with Anthropic and OpenAI. In our view, that probably doesn't happen until SpaceX is launching multiple gigawatts into orbit.
15:04Caroline Hyde:I'm sorry to interrupt you. There is a disconnect, and many people share this thesis. The TAM number in the prospectus, 26.5 trillion, was for enterprise AI, and I appreciate their sub-buckets. In the here and now, they've basically played a blinder with a ready-to-go neocloud business. and lots of people keep telling me like in the end it doesn't matter if grok works or is competitive against anthropic and open ai they just rent out the capacity and that will fund the you know the out of this world ambition what would you respond to that i think that's possible as in the way in which we model the business that is the more likely outcome um it's i think to compete to get to the frontier by 2030, you'll need between 30 and 50 gigawatt years of compute and training.
15:55And because XAI started later and they're trying to build their own infrastructure, it's very difficult for them to catch up on that amount of kind of R &D compute thrown at their model. With the caveat that if assuming that they merge with Tesla over the next couple of years, cash flow from Tesla could actually fund catch up for them. You assume that? I think it's a reasonable assumption or more likely than not after the company lists and its shares are all floating that there is a merger between the entities. It makes a ton of strategic sense. And as we model Tesla, like the cash flow flowing off RoboTaxi, they can't effectively deploy it.
16:42So, you know, I'm not going to want a special dividend out to shareholders for Tesla. I want them to continue to reinvest in growth. Optimus, the robot business, you know, requires it's not capital constrained. It's really like capability constrained. And so whereas SpaceX actually can use additional capital to continue to accelerate growth. Brett Winton, we could talk for hours. Chief Futurist at ARK Invest, we are very thankful for the time that you've given us. Now coming up, Oracle makes a costly bet on AI and their massive spending plans are grabbing Wall Street's attention. It doesn't look pretty.
17:13This is Bloomberg Tech.
17:20You have invested in artificial intelligence. Maybe you have pilots or even proofs of concepts that show real promise. The next opportunity is scaling that success across the business At EY Consulting, we help organizations redesign how work gets done so innovation can move beyond the nascent stage. By addressing architecture, operating models, and governance, we help AI deliver real, lasting value at scale. When AI fits how you actually work, that is EY Consulting. The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works.
17:56Caroline Hyde:At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM. Get the news you need in just 15 minutes. Start your day with Bloomberg Daybreak, the podcast with a global view on the stories that matter. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. Join us each morning for curated stories on current events, politics, business, and foreign relations.
18:36Plus one conversation on the day's biggest developments, all in just 15 minutes. Subscribe to Bloomberg Daybreak for a precise, thoughtful take on the stories that matter. Listen to Bloomberg Daybreak each morning on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen. Oracle. Shares having their worst day in six months. That's$61 billion wiped out in market cap after they reported quarterly capital expenditure, which is above what the market thought. Raising investor concerns about the profitability of AI infrastructure build-outs. Bloomberg's Brody Ford breaks it down. Look, they sort of tried to tell us that they weren't going to raise more debt equity this fiscal year, but we're looking now at next year and there is going to be a lot more raising needed to do.
19:17right the whole question for oracle is how quickly can you convert this massive ai demand into actual revenue and what are the capital requirements associated and so last night when a lot of different spending metrics came up a little high whether it was capex in the quarter or debt plans for the next year all of these things came together to make investors a little bit indigested.
19:44Caroline Hyde:In the top line, right? Like, yes, okay, they're going to go to equity and debt markets again. They've told us that. But are they growing? Like, are they able to actually operate this business effectively? They're growing massively. The question is whether it's empty calories. It's all about that margin question because we see as the AI business ramps up, the gross margins come down and they fired thousands of people this quarter to try to control those costs, but it's still crunching them, right? It's still a question around what is the margin of offering AI infrastructure and is this a good business to be in?
20:19Generally, Oracle has gone up quite a bit in their share price and investors are hopeful, but it's all about how quickly they can deliver on the big promises.
20:28Caroline Hyde:Bloomberg's Brody Ford, thank you very much. The world's largest private equity firms and dealmakers are gathering in Berlin for the annual Super Return Conference, navigating a tough fundraising environment where AI is reshaping where capital is flowing. Bloomberg's Danny Berger joins us live from the ground for an exclusive interview with Reddit co-founder and 776 founder, Alexis O 'Hanian. Danny. And thank you so much. That's right, I am here alongside Alexis. Alexis, thank you so much for joining. Wonderful to see you. Hey, thanks for having me, Danny. So look, the big news of the week, it's inescapable is a SpaceX IPO listing tomorrow.
21:04You're obviously very intimately familiar with it, having owned XAI, which got sold to SpaceX. What does it just mean to have this behemoth coming to market tomorrow? Look, we are all excited. You know, I think right now, most of us in venture and in tech have been waiting for some watershed moment IPO to hopefully get the markets back open. Looks like that is upon us. And just generally speaking, I've been so excited about space tech for about five, six, seven years now. And that to me is, I think, this feels like a milestone moment. And this was an investment thesis that was unthinkable a decade ago for most investors.
21:41And I think now people are coming to grips with the fact that space technology is really here. What would have been science fiction to us maybe 10 years ago is now science fact. And I think we're only going to see an acceleration of that. Okay, but is it all fact? When we start talking about like a$29 trillion TAM and 10 million people on Mars. I mean, you own space companies yourself. Is this the way you need to think or is it a little bit of a fantasy? see? I, it's so, these numbers are big. The projections, the ambitions are big. I do think, though, when we think about what we are capable of as a species, space has been something that has mystified us, excited us for a very long time, especially in modern history and modern technology.
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22:26This was a frontier we really believed for a long time, and I did growing up. It was only a place for governments to build and innovate. NASA, putting a man on the moon, all that stuff was never something the private sector could do. But what we're seeing now here is undeniable. The private sector has been able to accomplish a lot, and I think it's only going to accelerate. And I do think the overall market is potentially that big. I think when we're talking about human ambition, there is no limit to that. When we talk about the opportunities in space as low earth orbit alone just becomes more accessible, we're unlocking pharmaceuticals, we're unlocking biotech, that's going to help us here back at home.
23:02And that's the stuff that gets me fired up as an investor. That's what gets me fired up as an American. I want to see that innovation come and help us live better lives here on planet Earth. So is having SpaceX as a public company, is that a good thing for your space investments? Because it shows there's a pathway for public markets. Or is it a bad thing because so much money is going to get funneled into this IPO that maybe it leaves less room for some of the other space companies? Well, the good news is where I like to invest is still so early. Very few of these companies, you know, companies like Stoke or Astroforge are thinking about going public quite yet.
23:34They're still thinking about building and shipping and launching. I do think you're going to have undeniably a whole fleet of newly minted millionaires, multi-millionaires, as well as investors. So not just the early employees, but also the investors who believe in space tech, who are now going to have capital to put into the sort of next wave. And I think we've seen that play out in tech before, and this will be no exception. And I do think that all continues to accelerate all of us in building the space economy that we're hoping for. Building a space economy, though, it is something that certainly takes time.
24:06And I just wonder if there is room for disappointment. I mean, I don't mean to harp on sort of the crazy numbers of it all, but is there a fear that it gets too overhyped? A SpaceX IPO is just too large and there's some disappointment and it sets the project back to humanity, what you're talking about. It sets it back in some time. I do think it is important to have this temperate expectation. I think on the one hand, folks have to balance, one, what I think is a very important, almost unbridled ambition for human progress, which is, I think, a very important and noble and great quest. And at the same time, the realistic expectations, everyone should obviously do their diligence, do their own underwriting, all that important stuff before making any kind of stock decision.
24:46Thank you for the legal disclaimer. You know, compliance is happy with me. But at the end of the day, I do think what we're talking about here is creating very real value. I know even you think about anecdotally, the difference a person has once they've taken a United flight with Starlink. Like there is a there's a very, very different feeling about how you interact with technology when you've experienced just a little fraction of what the space economy can do. And I do think as we start to unlock pharmaceuticals and biotech that could really only be done in zero G, we're talking about, again, saving lives, improving quality of life, things that I know provide a real economic value, but at the same time help us live that Star Trek future I think a lot of us grew up wanting.
25:27So I think be exuberant, be excited, but at the same time, obviously, you know, be thoughtful in how you're underwriting this stuff. It's not just obviously SpaceX that's IPO. We also have OpenAI filing. Anthropic does as well. And these are companies that have had a lot of VC backing. In fact, so much so, we were talking about this on stage, 65 % of VC money has gone to just 0.05 % of companies. Is something broken that those are the statistics we're faced with right now? It is a unique time. I think clearly as an early stage investor, you know, I am insulated from this a bit because they're the ones, these multi-stages are often marking up my early investments.
26:04And so, you know, it's I think where you start to see the challenge is a lot of these companies in a previous decade would have already been public. And because companies held off going public longer, the private markets became a place that was effectively dealing like a public marketplace. So you're seeing these valuations. You're seeing this increase. I think it is a positive for America and for the world that, you know, retail, that regular folks get access to these opportunities. I frankly wish it would happen sooner because I think historically, you know, people draw up, you know, the market cap of Amazon or revenues of Amazon or Google when they went public.
26:40And, you know, we're in a different world now where privately held companies are able to generate tremendous revenues and market caps before going public. But I do think I think this has been a long time coming. And I do think generally venture should be a place to be contrarian and right. It should be a non-consensus asset. And especially on the growth side, it's looking more and more consensus. So, look, those companies are about to turn public. We'll see what the next wave of private looks like. I'm certainly trying to do my best to be on the non-consensus and right side early. And I do think venture is healthier as an ecosystem when it's not looking like a couple of very, very concentrated bets.
27:17Well, usually what you say when there's a consensus is that that's a dangerous thing and it means that there can be a correction. Do you think that that's possible for this industry if everyone is crowding around similar bets? look your instincts are right and i know you always get in trouble saying why something is different this time yeah and with that caveat i still think something is different this time and and i know look i lived through the social media wave i naively thought the social media revolution that we were building with reddit was like the revolution it was not uh i naively thought mobile uh was a revolution it was not i mean it was but in a much smaller way compared to what this is.
27:53We have seen in just a few years technology go from an interesting novelty that could help you write like a press release to technology that could literally write code as well as or better than even some of the most senior experienced developers and really augments the output of folks. So there's a real technology here. It's a real shift and I don't think it goes away. And I also think it has, as I said on stage, a national security importance because so much of our lives are digital. Being able, you saw this with the way Anthropic thoughtfully rolled out mythos, like, you know, we used it first and foremost to shore up vulnerabilities that we had in our businesses here in America.
28:31And so even if it never got, even if AI never got any better than where it is today, you know, that is already incredibly valuable. And there's so much wood to chop as we look across so many businesses that right now don't have any software in them. This hotel, I am sure. Don't tell me this hotel is going to be an AI company, Alexis. No, no, No, but I am sure that whatever systems they're using right now are very bad. And software, as a layer of user experience, user improvement, should be able to level that up in a meaningful way. By the way, I do want to just ask quickly, because we have 45 seconds left.
29:06There is this idea that the thing that survives in AI is just like live entertainment. And you have a lot of bets around women's sports. Has this whole revolution, this thing we're experiencing, just made you double down on that? Yeah, I mean, look, I was a rare voice five, six years ago saying this was an institutional great asset, not just sports, but also specifically women's sports. I love seeing this. I am certain five, 10 years from now, we will still watch no matter how good the AI generated highlights get. You know, watching the AI version of that Knicks final last night would do nothing for the human soul.
29:39Yeah, because it requires even though even if it was pixel perfect, if it didn't actually happen, it is irrelevant and worthless. So live sports has to be fundamentally human. No one is going to line up to see a bunch of robots, you know, play 18 holes of golf against each other where everyone hits a hole in one. The end state of this technology is some version of this perfection that no one's going to want to watch because sport has to be human. So I've been saying this for five, six years now. I'm only more confident about it. And I think what this technology does is it makes these assets more valuable.
30:10It makes them more engaging for fans. It improves training. It improves so many elements, but it does not replace mining aids. We're out of time, but should we just end with Nixon 5? Nixon 5. Nixon 5. That's right, Nixon 5. Look into the camera, Nixon 5. Perfect place to end it, Alexis. Thank you so much for joining me. Ed Caroline, Alexis Ohanian, the founder of 776 and Reddit.
30:30Caroline Hyde:Thank you very much, Danny Berger. I really want to check back in on markets, and I don't mean like what's happening in the here and now. We're like up eight tenths of a percent on NASDAQ 100. I call it like a modest rebound. Oracle is down on track for its worst day in six months because it warned investors it's going to have to tap equity and debt markets. It needs that capital caro. Like, it's like, can't build compute fast enough. But it's interesting. Like, if you just take a sec, calm it down. Most of the names on the NASDAQ 100 are higher. It's the hyperscalers that are lower. The software names are a little bit lower.
31:03Caroline Hyde:And there must be an element of, like, treading water to SpaceX's debut tomorrow. Definitely. Maybe people are still rearranging as to how much allocation they can have, how much money they've committed. But also, look, there's still hardware on the higher side, in particular in the chip side of the equation. And let's just talk a little bit about that, because questions are clearly around the cost of the AI boom for Oracle there, but also costs for you and me, for the American people. Inflation is spiking. With tech giants scrambling to build out data centers, memory chip prices have skyrocketed, driving a record spike in tech hardware and electricity costs.
31:36This is exactly the story that Bloomberg's Ender Current is helping tell today. You tell it through an individual who's helping small, medium-sized enterprises gain access to upgrading memory. And, I mean, he's just thinking this is out of this world. Yeah, indeed. I mean, this is where the AI boom is spilling over into real living costs. You mentioned, for example, I spoke to a couple of companies, one of them in Baltimore. He deals with small businesses. He does their IT services. So they come in the door looking for a memory storage upgrade or maybe even a new computer. And he's saying to them, look, because of the AI boom demand for chips, that's driving up the cost for the components he needs, like RAM storage, SSD, etc., driving it up significantly.
32:16And as a result, obviously, that means their upgrade job will be much more expensive to the point where he says he's telling some customers, look, you might as well go and buy a new computer or a new laptop. And the cost of the new computer or new laptop is also going up as a result. So these chips go into everything that we use in every walk of life and it's flowing through now to the inflation data.
32:36Caroline Hyde:I'm going to just read this, Ender, because I couldn't believe it. It's the AI summary of your story, but the memory squeeze will add 0.4 percentage points to headline inflation before it eases, according to Blueberg Economics. It is shocking to me that there is a single basis point. We're talking about a category of specific hardware and chips impacting inflation at a super substantive level. Like, I've spoken to you for years. You've been all around the world looking at different economies, different supply chains. Is that shocking to you? What have you learned in the real world economy about that data point?
33:13It's certainly an impact. I mean, the official data that we had yesterday, to your point, showed that the technology and computer components part of the inflation indicators was actually up by just about 15 % from a year ago. That's a record increase. So it is having an impact. Now, to be clear, obviously, it's not the only issue driving inflation right now. The Iran more, of course, because the impact on energy is the bigger driver. But it is filtering through in a meaningful way. and economists are saying it's going to be enough to keep inflation simmering at a point where it wouldn't otherwise be.
33:50And that's a critical thing. And of course, that's a real worry for policymakers. So the AI inflation story may not be the only factor in terms of what's keeping US inflation elevated, but it is certainly one of the factors and that's a direct consequence of this AI boom that we're all seeing.
34:05Caroline Hyde:And when we were discussing markets a moment ago, I should also say, of course, the war in Iran and the Middle East is like a driver, a catalyst, and what's happening in equities at least today. Bloomberg's end of current in D.C. Awesome. Really appreciate it. Thank you. So stocks staged, let's say, a cautious rebound with tech stocks somewhat leading the way. Like as we were talking about, there's a little bit of bifurcation in the bucket of the NASDAQ 100. But concerns about a potential escalation, right, of the conflicts in the Middle East are keeping investors a little bit on edge. Oil prices are still a factor.
34:36Caroline Hyde:Again, I still think SpaceX has quite a lot to do with this. Let's bring in Christina Hooper for her read, Chief Market Strategist at the Man Group,$228.7 billion in assets under management. You know, I say this quite often, particularly for the tech sector, like one session a market does not make. But what is the story you see in the numbers on the screen in front of you right now? Well, I think there is a lot of excitement around SpaceX. This is, I think, creating a very significant level of positive sentiment, so much so that markets can really look through. all the geopolitical risk and say, hey, this is something exciting.
35:15This is something that has incredibly long-term, potential long-term. It is, you know, it is to me a story about markets that want to focus on the positive, and this is giving them a reason to be positive. As a market strategist, Christina, when you're getting bombarded with calls, Should I buy into SpaceX? Should I be looking at OpenAI and Anthropic and all the IPOs that might be coming? What is your answer? My answer is I think we need to think of it in terms of the context of a diversified portfolio. There is certainly potential there, as I talked about. There's growth opportunities. We also have to recognize that valuations are high.
35:56And when valuations are high, stocks are vulnerable to a re-rating, especially in an environment in which you have an enormous amount of geopolitical risk. Now, that may impact some stocks more than others. But typically, when you have rates going up, that exerts downward pressure on equities, particularly long duration equities like tech names. So if you're looking out far longer term for your earnings, for your payoff, so to speak, then you could very well see some kind of a re-rating.
36:28Caroline Hyde:Christina, part of the SpaceX IPO equation is slightly mechanical. So some of the index fast track inclusion, right? And in very simple terms, the passive funds will have to, by their own bylaws, rebalance. Could you explain that a little bit? A, the basics of it. But when you're a strategist looking across assets, what you think will happen as a result of that? Well, essentially, you have a built-in demand that is vast. Because if you think about all the different owners of index-like fund products, you have this captive audience that will be owning it as part of that. And so that certainly changes the dynamics.
37:09That's very different than the other IPOs we've seen. And again, it's part of why there's so much excitement and there's a view that this stock price could go up quite significantly from here. Isn't it an irony that Elon Musk has always pushed and railed against passive?
37:25Caroline Hyde:Yeah. But passive is going to be such a driver of demand more broadly for the IPO, but so too is the commitment to the retail investor. Have you done much strategic thought around the impact of retail investor right now on broader markets? Because they're a loyal bunch quite often, but they can also ride in on meme themes and cause more volatility. Oh, absolutely. I think that's why there are so many firms that essentially monitor Reddit and other sites. I think that was learned from GameStop that retail investors are quite powerful. Now, I think what we're seeing now is that retail investors are seeing opportunities in technology, particularly AI-related names, and they have put their full force behind it.
38:10That's not to say we haven't seen institutional investors as well. And so that has created quite a dynamic. And that is really, I think, largely behind the kind of incredible recovery we've seen over the last couple of months. I mean, the returns are really quite astounding.
38:24Caroline Hyde:I would love to dwell on this, if that's OK, Christina. So Bloomberg reported that there was$70 billion of retail demand for the SpaceX IPO, though we don't actually know the allocation yet. So it's oversubscribed. But one of the theses that the existing investor base of SpaceX tell me over and over again, retail understands the story better. They're more likely to hold on to the shares for longer. And that will support the valuation over a longer time period. You model for that? Do you share that belief? So I think it can be a double-edged sword. Yes, retail does understand the story. That's part of why there's so much excitement around it and there's so much retail demand for the IPO.
39:06But by the same token, because retail understands the story, if we see cracks form in critical businesses, then you could see retail react to that. Again, we have that sort of built-in demand because of the placement in the index. But having said that, you could still see a lot of volatility. you could see some kind of re-rating in this environment if you see yields continue to go up and if you see retail investors just become risk-averse in general, which could easily happen. Christina Hooper, always so measured, always so thoughtful. Thank you for coming on. Man Group, chief market strategist there.
39:43Coming up from Snacks to Software, GoPuff partners with SpaceX AI for a new shopping experience. We speak with the GoPuff co-CEO and why SpaceX AI, why their offering, why growth. This is Bloomberg Tech.
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40:49Caroline Hyde:As SpaceX heads towards its IPO tomorrow, investors are betting on more than rockets and chatbots and satellites. The company says enterprise AI represents a$26.5 trillion opportunity. But can Grok actually win corporate customers? One of the few companies putting it to work is GoPuff, which built its new AI shopping assistant on XAI's models. Joining us now is GoPuff CEO, Rafael Ilishayev. it's a great case study, right? I think a lot of people read the prospectus and were like, okay, the future of SpaceX AI is enterprise AI, but they have struggled a little to get people to use the models in a meaningful way.
41:30Caroline Hyde:You are. Just explain the basics of the relationship and what you've actually done with the technology. Yeah, Ed, Caroline, thank you so much for having me. So over the last 13 years, GoPub has built infrastructure to be the fastest and most affordable player in delivery. And our partnership with SpaceX and the product that we co-developed called Go solves the final friction point that we really had, which is the consumer shopping experience. So we thought about this differently than I think a lot of other folks. It's not just an LLM wrapper that's built within our app, but in fact, it's a co-developed experience where it's a whole new consumer product where you can shop via voice.
42:13You can talk to it, have total conversation like you would have with your best friend. Go will build your cart. So if it knows enough about you, it'll actually develop and build the whole cart. And it has this TikTok style scrolling experience where you can scroll and discover new products that are hyper personalized and cared for you. So this is a whole new experience that we co-developed together with SpaceX over the last year. And Rafael, what's interesting is when you're using data from X, you'll know that I'm all in on the next Sim5 game on Saturday and suddenly I'm being offered chicken wings or I'm being offered chips or whatever it might be because I'm ordering GoPuff on that moment on the Saturday.
42:52But from actually embedding within X and within Grok, did you push away other relationships? Did you decide no thanks OpenAI, no thanks Anthropic? Did you look at doing it with competitors? You know, this kind of relationship that we had and the kind of product that we wanted to build, this wasn't just a plug-and-play that we could have done with anyone. So we looked for folks that had the right technology, and SpaceX has amongst the best technology both for voice and imagine, and a partner that was willing to co-develop this whole new consumer shopping experience for us. So this was a long 10, 11-month process that we co-developed together with a partner that was willing to work with us, even as early as this morning, talking with our engineers and co-developing this thing together to make it even better.
43:42So we were looking for a partner that had the right technology, which SpaceX is, I think, cutting edge and the best both in voice and in image generation,
43:51Caroline Hyde:and a partner that was willing to co-develop this new product together. Could you talk a little bit about how the economics of it work? Like, how does XAI price things with you? It sounds also a bit like you get good access to the forward deployed engineers, like daily access. All of that is a big factor right now because everyone is counting the cost of tokens. Yeah, yeah. So it's a strategic relationship that we built together with SpaceX AI from day one. And the way that we thought about the scaling is we wanted a provider that can provide, you know, a super high quality product, both across voice and image and is arguably the lowest cost provider.
44:33So we built a relationship that scales.
44:36Caroline Hyde:They are the lowest cost provider. You benchmarked against OpenAI and Anthropic on the cost as well. Yeah, we looked at a lot of players when we did this and cost was one of the factors here. But the quality of the product and the willingness to co-develop this together, all of that kind of gave us a lot of confidence to work together with SpaceX. And I think the product kind of speaks for itself. If you play with it, I think it's second to none from a consumer AI experience. I mean, Rafael, there's interesting reporting out over at Wall Street Journal, for example. There's a thought that OpenAI might be doing some drastic price cuts in particular, basically the cost of its product.
45:15People have been wonderfully token maxing and suddenly realizing how expensive that is. and they want to do that perhaps ahead of competitors like Anthropic. Are you seeing return on such AI investment? Is it really driving growth for the business? You know, we're a week in to Go launching. And I'll tell you, a lot of the consumer metrics really early on are great. You know, basket size is up and frequency within the first week is up. But what's even more special is the kind of conversations that our consumers are having with Go. You know, we saw a conversation earlier today with the mom saying, hey, my kid, go, my kid is sick.
45:53Can you help me? Or a conversation a few days ago with someone asking, hey, I'm hosting a barbecue for six people. Go, can you help me? And that kind of relationship that we're building with the customer is kind of very special. And I think those kind of relationships are the ones that are going to win and lead to ultimately better KPIs across the board. Rafael, it's great speaking with you. Rafael Elias Shea, who is the co-founder and co-CEO of GoPuff. I appreciate the take on Grok and AI and SpaceX AI, but there's a lot to talk from governments around the world at the moment about adopting AI.
46:26Many countries still haven't delivered on that adoption. That's according to OpenAI's head of countries and the former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. He sat down with Bloomberg Tech Europe's Tom McKenzie from the Founders Forum in the UK.
46:39Caroline Hyde:I think you are seeing what is true is that many governments haven't yet really delivered on the adoption. They've talked about it. They've got ambitions around it. But they're still in the process of delivering. Now, I know I've been in government. Things take a while. But the governments, I think, that do adopt more quickly will be the big winners. They'll be the winners in their national economy, winners in the quality of their public services, and winners intentionally in like where their country is going to be over the next century. Coming up, many things about the SpaceX IPO have been unusual.
47:15Caroline Hyde:We're going to talk through the mechanisms of this public market launch next. Ready for liftoff, etc., etc. This is Bloomberg Tech.
47:31Caroline Hyde:Breaking news crossing the terminals. SpaceX preparing to sell$75 billion worth of shares, at least a$5 billion order coming from BlackRock. That's according to the Wall Street Journal citing sources. Bloomberg had reported, right, that there were several institutions that had placed orders for$10 billion worth of shares. The allocation will get worked out in the next 24 hours through to tomorrow morning, pre-trade. But BlackRock, according to the journal, at least$5 billion. Maybe it goes up. We'll see. There are some big orders coming from institutional but also from retail, Ed. And that is today's big number.
48:09More than$70 billion. Retail orders for SpaceX's IPO have actually topped$70 billion according to sources. And while individual investors are expected to be allocated for at least 20 % of the available shares, at a$75 billion IPO size, many are going to be left unfilled. That's just one of the rather unusual things about this listing. Joining us to discuss the IPO mechanics, the market impact, the thesis, Brian White, Managing Director and Co-Head of Tech Investment Banking over at Piper Sandler. You're not one of the banks working on the listing, which frees us up to discuss things at length with you, Brian.
48:41And I'm so fascinated by some of the technicalities because you've put in your notes, look, this is a very small float. $75 billion is enormous, a record IPO. But compared to the valuation of the company, very limited amount of how many stock we get access to. Is that an issue? Well, it is. It's about 4 % of the float, and there's overriding demand. You're seeing demand from retail and institutional, as evidenced by the BlackRock order right there. But over time, hopefully they will continue to sell more and more. But right now, it looks like the demand is quite high, and they could probably actually increase the amount that they want to raise.
49:18And I'm sure that that's something that the underwriters are thinking about as we speak.
49:21Caroline Hyde:Ryan, they did the unusual thing and set out a price pre-Roadshow 135. 35, how do you think the bankers, the potential investors and everyone else responded to that behind the scenes? Well, first, what they wanted to do is to back into what they believe is an appropriate valuation. And that's a valuation based on all the facets of the SpaceX business. Number two, SpaceX is unique and it's led by probably one of the best entrepreneurs of all time in Elon Musk. And there is tremendous demand for it. And instead of the normal mechanism where you're trying to determine how to price based on where you think demand is and what the market values that they've determined the price from the outset.
50:01What that's doing is putting an artificial floor on where it's going to be. But what it also may allow for is a very, very large pop for retail investors tomorrow. And I think that that's going to be what we want to watch, just how much it pops at the open and where it sustains itself, because much of retail may see such a large pop that what they decide to do is to sell down throughout the day tomorrow. But Brian, aren't there limitations as to how much retail is allowed to sell out, or at least some of the brokers that they buy through will punish them if they sell on the first day? Well, we've never seen an IPO with this much retail allocation.
50:37And so 20 % at least is going to retail, and the retail is going to be able to have access to sell. Now, what you may be referring to is some of them may have some issues with future IPOs, but most of the retail that's in this IPO is probably not necessarily planning for much more IPO investments. You really think they're not going to be in Anthropik or OpenAI if they want to buy into XAI? Well, they would like to be, but it's unclear if OpenAI and Anthropik will actually follow a similar mechanism.
51:04Caroline Hyde:My instinct is they may not, but we shall see because this is setting a new precedent tomorrow. Brian, we reported yesterday that pre-float SpaceX has IG rating from the three main agencies. To you, how much of a signal of that is that they will very quickly go back to the markets and raise more money through any mechanism available? I mean, I think it's a tremendous signal. I think that they are going, look at the burn that they disclosed in the prospectus. Look at the ambitions that they have, particularly with the XAI part of the business and with their vision about where they want to see their AI business and their space business over time.
51:41This is a business that will continue to consume massive amounts of capital
51:45Caroline Hyde:and it will continue to need to access the public markets to raise that capital. You didn't get a brief on this. We're being transparent about that. But is there a way that Piper Sandler can play this IPO event? Well, what we're trying to do is just continue to advise our clients about where defense technology is heading, the exciting things that is happening in space, the future of defense. Those are the areas that we're spending a lot of our time. in terms of the future opportunities around SpaceX. It's something that our team is very fixated on, but we're not participating in this IPO tomorrow.
52:20Caroline Hyde:Brian White, co-head of technology investment banking at Pipe Center. Thank you very much. Really appreciate it. Okay, you know, this is it, the final sprint, and this is it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech. Are you ready? I'm feeling ready. Yeah. Are you ready? Because you've got a long day ahead of you, Ed Ludlow. There's potentially coverage of these things priced. There's coverage throughout the trading day here on Bloomberg, after the trading day, and of course all things are right. You know, like the main takeaway from the guests, it's all premeditated. You kind of know what's going to happen.
52:48Caroline Hyde:Still, lots to review on the pod. There is Get That Podcast. You can find it on the terminal as well as online on Apple, Spotify, and iHeart. I have Ed here for another day in New York City. This is Bloomberg Tech.
53:01Caroline Hyde:The Big Tech podcast from Bloomberg News keeps you on top of the biggest stories of the day. My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. Stories that move markets. Chair Powell opened the door to this first interest rate cut. Impact politics. Change businesses. This is a really stunning development for the AI world and how you think about your bottom line. Listen to The Big Take from Bloomberg News every weekday afternoon on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
From the publisher
Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow discuss SpaceX gearing up to finalize its IPO pricing today. This as its offering attracts more than $70 billion in orders from retail investors. Plus, Oracle is under pressure after the company reported higher quarterly capital expenses than expected, raising investor concerns about the profitability of the AI infrastructure business. And, a conversation with 776 Founder and Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian from SuperReturn in Berlin.
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