SpaceX Soars On Third Trading Day, Seals Cursor Takeover

20:52It is no doubt going to be a focus here on the ground as these world leaders, including President Trump, are going to be in the same room with some of these top tech CEOs, including from Anthropic as well as OpenAI. And in fact, earlier today, Bloomberg News was able to obtain a draft statement related to this meeting that is set to take place tomorrow, which says in part that the leaders are expected to pledge to, quote, further discuss emerging opportunities and potential risks arising from AI, notably in the financial sector. It is definitely going to be a theme here going forward. A G7 official tells me that that meeting tomorrow will also focus on potential regulations that all of these G7 allies could come together on, as well as respecting individual countries' regulations when it comes to the tech.

21:39And, Ed, another thread that we're watching very closely here is that just Yesterday, President Trump threatened a 100 percent tariff on France over the use of its digital services tax. This has been something that the Trump administration has long lobbied its criticism against European allies about. I had the chance to ask the French spokesperson about this. He did confirm that there are ongoing discussions about the DST, but he said that this is not a moment for, quote, antagonism.

22:05Ed Ludlow:The most Tyler Kendall and Evian, France, the G7. Thank you very much. Another story we're watching in AI, OpenAI's losses ballooned last year as the company poured money into the AI race. The Financial Times reports the ChatGPT maker spent more than$34 billion on research, marketing and other expenses in 2025, driving an eightfold increase in net losses. OpenAI did not comment on the Financial Times report. Databricks' Data Summit 2026 is underway in San Francisco. as the software maker competes with Snowflake and Google. It's launching new enterprise AI products, including Genie One, new agentic coworker for business teams and Unity AI Gateway that helps businesses control their costs.

22:49Ed Ludlow:Talent is proving the biggest expense for them, but the company's yet to tap the public markets this year amid other blockbuster tech listings. Here's what CEO Ali Gadzi told us yesterday. So, you know, we're not, we've not said that we're doing any fundraise. I know that there's rumors about this, but we're always talking to investors. Why? Well, we're investing heavily into these new product categories. We're just launching a completely new product for us that's called Customer Lake, which is in the area of marketing. So we're targeting marketing folks, which is not an area where we used to be active.

23:24Two months ago, we launched a security product called Lake Watch, and we're getting into the security space. It takes resources to get into these spaces. And all of these products that I mentioned, we're building it agentic first. So it's like they start with agents from the ground up. We're not bolting it on. That requires that you have AI researchers. As we all know, AI researchers don't come cheap. So all this requires funding. So we're always in talk with investors to be able to just be aggressive and expand and launch new products, do research, go to more regions, be available in every part of the world.

23:58So, you know, that's why we require capital.

24:02Ed Ludlow:Ali, let's end it here. Earlier this month, you told me, you know, Databricks in the end will be a public company. You want to be a public company, but you think this is just a terrible year to go public. Do you stand by that? Has anything changed in your mind in the last two weeks? No, I think that, you know, it's just there's three mega IPOs that have been rumored. One of them happened. you know so letting those kind of go through the system and see how that sort of plays out and things stabilize a little bit and I think that you know getting a little bit further in this sort of AI revolution that we're going through I prefer for the company to go public when you know waters are a little bit more calm and there's a little bit more predictability so you know I stand by what I said I think for most other companies you know it's probably way best to wait it out and that's also what CEOs that I know tell me that I'm thinking about the IPO they're saying you know I don't want to, you know, go between, you know, two mega IPOs like that.

24:59Ed Ludlow:That was Databricks CEO Ali Godzi. Let's go out to Bloomberg's Yohara Nanand in New York for everything else. What are we tracking, Yohara? Hi, Ed. Well, it's time for Talking Tech. First up, prediction market platform Kalshi has developed a new AI agent designed to stress test the wording of its contracts. The company says the tool, known internally as Harrison, helps identify potential issues before they affect the millions of wagers It handles each day on events ranging, of course, from elections to sports games and award ceremonies. Plus, Robinhood is the latest fintech to downsize. The online brokerage is eliminating 300 jobs, adding to a deepening wave of layoffs across the industry.

25:40The company says the latest cut is to, quote, further accelerate product velocity and remain lean and disciplined. No mention of AI. And several studios inside Microsoft's Xbox gaming division are in active negotiations to spin off as they try to avoid closure. That's according to sources. The talks come as newly appointed CEO Asha Sharma accelerates a broader restructuring of the business. Ed, I'll leave the gaming up to you.

26:08Ed Ludlow:Thank you very much, Yohara. And coming up, Sean McGuire, who led Sequoia's SpaceX investment, joins us to talk about the cursor deal, orbital data centers, and so much more. This is what markets look like. Reminder, Kevin Walsh Fed Decision debut Wednesday. This is Bloomberg Tech.

26:33Ed Ludlow:Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. It's just the third trading day in SpaceX's life as a public company. And my goodness, so many headlines. It's kind of been an interesting volatile session. And Carmen Reinecke made the point earlier in the show that you need to kind of look at the float and the volumes that are going on. But at one point in the session, we were really out of this world. Sorry, not sorry. There is a lot of numbers to go through and a lot to pass here. So let's check in on these SpaceX shares with Bloomberg's cross-asset reporter, Isabel Lee. Isabel. Hi, and out of this world indeed, you see the stock rallying for the third straight day.

27:02And it's on track to surpass the market cap of Amazon and Microsoft to become the fourth largest company in the world. So you see the rally today pushing the market cap of SpaceX to nearly$3 trillion. So obviously this comms fears that the market will not be able to digest an IPO this big. And obviously it loads well for the likes of Anthropic and OpenAI, which is waiting in the wings, all both valued at almost$1 trillion. And to be sure, the price action is driven by just a small percentage of shares. But still, it's so interesting. And you look at the next page, Ed, this is the ETF world, which I really love to look at.

27:34So all of these issuers filed to launch nearly a dozen SpaceX-linked ETFs. So they're both leveraged. They're all leveraged, rather. So they tracked SpaceX two times to the upside and two times to the downside. And in total on Monday, all of them combined saw$1 billion in trading volume, which is easily a record for any single stock ETF, for any new launch in a cohort like this. So the frenzy just really continues. And it's really hard not to imagine that, Ed, because the windfall is just so hard to ignore. And you look at these companies, these are the ones that are gaining billions and billions in net windfall.

28:08Take a look at Valor Equity Partners. This is founded by Musk Ally, Antonio Gracia. So nearly$70 billion at stake that they have. Founders Fund, this is a venture capital firm led by Peter Thiel. It now has a$50 billion stake. Tekoya has$20 billion. They're one of the first companies to back SpaceX in 2019. So first mover moved there and they were the first to put the trust in Elon Musk among the first. And Anderson Horowitz at$10 billion. So really lots of excitement and billions at stake, Ed.

28:34Ed Ludlow:Doing very well. This is Isabel Lee out in New York City. Thank you very much. A conversation I've been looking forward to for some time now. We're joined by Sean McGuire, a partner at Sequoia Capital. The firm has invested around$2 billion across funds into SpaceX. That includes an investment into X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. And all told, that amounts to a nearly 1.5 % stake in SpaceX, SpaceX AI. There's a much bigger story than those two parts, the rocket part and the AI part. Welcome to Winnipeg Tech. Thank you for having me, Ed. We're both football fans, so maybe we even get some time for some football commentary at the end.

29:08And that's soccer.

29:09Ed Ludlow:There is a lot to discuss. I think, should we just start with Cursor? Let's do it. Because it's right in front of us. The focus of this morning was, oh, well, Elon Musk has been quite honest about X-AIs need to catch up in coding vis-a-vis anthropic, open AI. What I'm trying to understand is what this means for the models themselves. Do you have a sort of thesis on that? Yeah, look, I've said this publicly, but I think about SpaceX as there's five layers of the company or business. Layer one is launch. This is foundational It's kind of the future of the company. Layer two is connectivity, which is in its early stages with Starlink and Direct to Cell, but kind of proven.

29:49And I think the compounding is pretty easy to underwrite. Layer three is compute, which today is terrestrial and in the future will be orbital as well. I think that the Google and Anthropic deals kind of show that that is very likely to work. and I actually want to spend more time on Trusted Compute later because I think it's a very, very exciting and underappreciated part of the company today. Layer four is the model layer. I think that's where, probably rightfully so, most investors don't know how to assess where SpaceX, SpaceX AI is today. And so I think we should talk about that more and that's where Cursor fits in.

30:32And then layer five is all the other bets. It's things that, you know, people today don't even know how to think about it. That's TerraFab. That's a moon base someday that has a rail gun launching, you know, orbital satellites in space. But look, on the on the cursor deal. I think people are underappreciating just how good that team is and also how well they work with Elon and the company.

30:57Ed Ludlow:Our last guest called it an aqua hire. It's just it's a 60 billion dollar aqua hire. I mean, I don't think when a company has a$3 billion plus run rate is the reported number as a three-year-old company. I don't think it's only an acquihire. But I do think that this is one of the best teams that's ever been assembled in the cursor team. And I also think they've proven over the last few months that they can keep pace with Elon. Like it is, unless you've seen it, it is impossible to explain the intensity and work ethic of Elon. And Michael and the team have kind of shown that they can keep pace and fit into this much broader ecosystem, adding value, you know, on the, on TerraFab, planning their orbital satellites, model layer, you know, cleaning up data to train models, helping plan infrastructure for the future.

31:58It's just like it is such a strong team that can go all the way to the bare metal in terms of understanding everything needed to build a model of the future. And so, no, it is not an acquihire, but I cannot stress how good that team is. And for me personally, it makes me much more optimistic that SpaceX AI will win or at least be one of the winning players on the model layer.

32:23Ed Ludlow:You're someone that's embedded in the teams. When I say embedded, I mean you were able to go in, work with the team, see what they're working on across SpaceX, XAI, X. And when I said that you were coming on the show, that was pretty much one of the questions that we got for you is, how do you think Elon Musk takes that cursor team and integrates it and moves quickly? You know, there's a particular Musk way of doing things, But, you know, this has happened three days since an IPO. It's pretty fast. Look, I think there was a couple months. You know, I don't know what the right technical word is.

32:58And, you know, I'm on live TV and there's a recent IPO. But I think there was a roughly two month trial period. And I think that only 1 % or less entrepreneurs could survive that trial period of working very closely. You mean like cursor passed the test? Yeah, I think I think cursor passed a test showing that they can keep pace, that they can operate without making mistakes, that they can actually elevate what's already one of the most talented teams in the world. And so I don't view this as like three days after IPO. There's something that came out of nowhere. I view this as there was, you know, many months leading up to that two month period and then two months of like deep, deep partnership.

33:44And so I personally think the probability that this is an accretive acquisition is like 99.999 % because the trial was so intense.

33:53Ed Ludlow:Sean, before we get to the near cloud business, I think that's really important and timely. We're in day three of trading as a public company. And a lot of people will make a lot of the milestone of being worth more than Amazon. Maybe that happens at the close. Maybe it doesn't. and I'm guessing you'll tell me that you'll distribute to the LPs when the time comes and you expect them to hold the shares. What is your kind of longer term position on SpaceX? I mean, look, for me on a personal level and I say this as someone, I think I understand this business very well, better than most investors, better than almost any investor.

34:34I am personally going to hold my shares in this company forever. like quite literally i i think that and and sure there's some things that could change politically or you know you know in the macro 10 years from now but this is the biggest vision the biggest mission of any company in history going after the biggest markets of any company history with the biggest moat and so i just think the compounding is going to be like it's it's hard

34:59Ed Ludlow:for people to even imagine the compounding part is the moat sean sorry to interrupt you but the the five-layer cake that you've outlined, which one? So obviously a great question. By far the biggest moat is launch, which we call people rocket scientists for a reason, or at least in the past that was an expression. The engineering that has gone into building Starship, I believe it's the hardest single engineering project that any company has ever done. And I think it's, to me, it's meaningfully beyond like ASML, like intrinsic complexity of building EV machine. I'm happy to go into this. So I would say moat number one is the launch business, which is just so far ahead of everyone else.

35:47Moat number two, and for what it's worth, I think there's this kind of weird thing where I do think that people right now are really underestimating the terrestrial compute. So let's go there.

35:58Ed Ludlow:Renting past you out. Yeah, I'll go there in one second. And I think that the moat for terrestrial compute is not launch. It's the quality of the team that's been assembled in kind of this very heavy distillation process over 20 years of finding, just bringing in the most talented people from Stanford, from MIT, et cetera. And only 1 % or 0.1 % actually survive this distillation process where they prove that they can work with the level of intensity while simultaneous level of team orientation without making mistakes, etc. So that team has figured out how to solve basically every hardware problem in the world.

36:40And when you apply them to something like terrestrial data centers, they're now like they're building data centers faster and better than anyone else. And so the team is a second moat that I know that seems like, oh, you can just go create a team. No, you cannot, because it took 20 plus years of distillation. But I think that we're in this weird metastable period where when we go five years from now, I think that launch will again be the moat because I think that orbital compute will be dominating net new inference compute, like just absolutely dominating. But I think for the next five years, like the team feeds into dominating terrestrial compute.

37:18So now you want to go to the trustee review?

37:19Ed Ludlow:So the state of play is this. The XAI team, SpaceX AI, build data center quickly. And I think your argument is that on a dollar per token basis, highly competitively operate them. If you go on to a map of Tennessee, they have Colossus 1, Colossus 2, and Colossus 3. And a big question a lot of people had was, well, hold on. It's amazing to get$2 billion per month from Anthropoc and Google. But why is that capacity not being used to train the latest, greatest models at the model layer or run inference on what Grok's already doing? Seemed like a blinder of a business decision. But longer term, like it's hard to reconcile.

38:00This is my personal opinion, kind of my assessment of the situation. First of all, one, the way I think that SpaceX in terms of terrestrial compute, and you mentioned Amazon, Amazon and Microsoft are incredible businesses. I have massive respect for those founders, for the businesses, for Satya running Microsoft. But a lot of their market cap comes from their cloud businesses and also for their legacy businesses in the case of delivery or the whole Microsoft Office bundle and operating system. But a lot of it is their cloud businesses. We're in a generational transition of cloud from kind of legacy CPU-based jobs to AI cloud.

38:58I strongly believe that SpaceX AI is the best in the world at building this next generation of AI clouds. Like, not even close. An order of magnitude better at building terrestrial compute in this AI era than anyone else. And it's not to say that the other companies are bad. It's to say you have the best rocket scientists in the world are now using their skills to build terrestrial compute. And what that leads to, in my opinion, is I think people are really underestimating how much more compute is going to come online next year and the year after for SpaceX. And that means I really believe SpaceX is going to have a surplus of compute.

39:44and I think it's very rational. As an investor, I love that they are offering compute to Anthropic and Google because one, it brings in a ton of revenue that I think in an IPO shows the world that all of this CapEx build out is not for nothing and it's not all or nothing based on the model layer. There's this massive value that the company has a dial of how they choose what to do with it. But kind of next point, I think that people are underestimating that most of that compute is kind of Colossus 1, which is roughly 10 miles away from Colossus 2 and Colossus 3. It's heterogeneous GPUs. Anthropic, in particular, has done an amazing job at being able to run inference on heterogeneous compute.

40:33Like, there's a lot of nuances here. Anyways, go ahead.

40:36Ed Ludlow:And by that, I think, you know, the explanation, they have different generations of GPU, Hopper, Blackwell, et cetera. We're going to take a quick break and we're going to keep the conversation going. We have plenty of time coming up. SpaceX has big plans for orbital data centers. And Sequoia Sean McGuire is going to stick with us and break down how and when that space compute becomes a reality. That's next. This is Bloomberg Tech.

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43:57And so they've essentially hit what is an energy wall. And yet, demand keeps accelerating. Globally, electricity use for data centers is expected to double by 2030. By 2050, it will likely represent a tenth of all electricity consumed on Earth. So what happens when artificial intelligence outpaces the power and land needed to sustain it? 3, 2, 1. The answer may be above Earth. In late 2025, space startup StarCloud sent a satellite into orbit carrying an NVIDIA H100 chip, the most powerful processor ever deployed in space. StarCloud One is not a data center, not yet. It's a single prototype in orbit.

44:51The future that StarCloud imagines is tens of thousands of satellites, each carrying chips like this one, working together to do complex, large-scale computing in space, also known as orbital compute. For many, the vision begins with a prompt from Earth beamed into space through laser links. The request is then processed by AI chips inside a satellite bus, which is powered by massive solar arrays stretching as much as four square kilometers. Together, these satellites form a linked computing network that then sends results back to Earth in milliseconds. Two years ago, when we first started talking about building data centers in space, people frankly thought we were a bit crazy, and it does sound a little bit sci-fi.

45:39What sounds like sci-fi is a response to a very real problem. On Earth, data centers require vast amounts of land, water and electricity. And as the AI systems inside them grow more powerful, the heat they generate is becoming harder and costlier to contain. In space, on the other hand, there are no land constraints or permitting battles, not to mention access to almost unlimited solar energy if it can be made to work.

46:13Ed Ludlow:So that was a segment from Bloomberg Originals looking at orbital data centers. And here on the show, Sean McGuire from Sequoia Capital still with us. The firm stake of around 1.5 % in SpaceX. And this is a big part of the plan. In the prospectus, the team is saying at SpaceX as early as 2028. In a moment, we're going to bring up a Bloomberg rendering of the design, and that's actually the SpaceX one, right? I think you're probably in the camp of people that think they can do this quickly. Where do you stand on your orbital data center outlook for SpaceX? I stand incredibly bullish. Just incredibly bullish.

46:55Shock, yeah. I'm not surprised by that, yeah. But I think it's rationally bullish. I think something that a lot of people are struggling with here is most people just never thought about what is a satellite? How do you build a satellite? What are the components of a satellite? What are the constraints around launching these satellites? And I think that people that have been following Starlink closely are very well positioned to assess.

47:21Ed Ludlow:Because you can extrapolate out on both the economics but also the engineering and physics. Exactly. The orbital compute satellites are very similar in many, many ways to Starlink satellites. I truly believe, and Elon said this last week in a video on orbital compute, that the intrinsic complexity of making a Starlink satellite is probably a little bit greater than an orbital compute satellite. I know this sounds kind of crazy, but Starlink is on the satellites themselves. Starlink satellites are more complicated than Orbital Compute satellites. That said, Orbital Compute satellites are bigger.

48:00For them to make sense, they have to be much bigger. You basically want to put a whole server rack in space, just in terms of doing inference on a model. You kind of need a minimum size for it to be useful. And you can't launch these bigger satellites unless you have Starship. So almost all of the difficulty of Orbital Compute satellites is in Starship. It's in the launch vehicle. And so if you want to estimate when orbital compute is going to be scaling, it's really a question around, like, when is Starship going to be scaling?

48:34Ed Ludlow:We're showing the videos. This is file, right, of Starship. And, you know, the basics of it are that on paper, you know, 135, 150 metric tons payload to orbit. And I think there's some idea that in the future, in iterations, 400 metric tons. I think the company said, you know, 200 metric tons is pretty achievable. 400 metric tons, maybe. I don't know. It seems likely, but I don't know. You just make it, there's something with rockets where the taller you make it, kind of the easier things become. The surface area to volume ratio, and that benefits you with drag. So it seems very likely, but manufacturing it, that skills harder.

49:16Ed Ludlow:Can you compare and contrast then? So you outlined in great detail why you're bullish on the terrestrial data center neocloud business. Where does the orbital data center business compare over just a reasonable timeline for you? Again, and I love the question. I appreciate the question. I think people are looking at orbital compute and they think, oh, wow, this sounds so crazy. And I wasn't even, I wasn't thinking about it two years ago. so it must take a long time and a lot of elon's timelines in the past have have been wrong which you know he says himself um but if you look at what an orbital compute satellite is it's basically some compute element whether that's a gpu or tpu or tranium or you know proprietary he said you have reference designs for all of them yeah but so there's the compute and you want about a server racks amount of compute.

50:08There are solar panels. Like that's easy, fully kind of proven. SpaceX has huge experience building solar panels. And the third main piece are radiators. So this is what takes all the heat from the compute chips and radiates it into space via, you know, via black body radiation. Those are the three main things. And then you also have laser links to connect to other satellites or connect to the ground and radio to connect to the ground. Of these things, every individual component here is kind of fully proven by SpaceX, except for the compute side. But that is not, it's just not that hard. And so the satellites themselves are pretty easy to make.

50:59Ed Ludlow:That's a rendering again, a Bloomberg rendering of what you're describing. Yeah. So to me, it really is a question of when Starship is flying. I don't understand why SpaceX wouldn't be able to have an orbital compute satellite up within six months or so of the first Starship payload flight. We have 90 seconds left in the show. I can't believe it. We need to address the open AI and anthropic elephant in the room, which is on paper, they are very similar. If you read the prospectus and the TAM that SpaceX outlines, is there room on Earth and outside of the Earth for all three? I think intelligence is the most important.

51:40It's the defining capability of our time, and I think there's unlimited demand for intelligence. I think it's very clear that SpaceX will be, in my opinion, will be the dominant provider of compute for intelligence. And I don't know what's going to happen on the model layer, but there's absolutely space for all of these companies to succeed.

52:01Ed Ludlow:Just 15 seconds. If you had like a kind of black swan memo right now for the firm Sequoia, what would the headline be? What's the biggest focus for you? I think it's probably regulatory risk. Regulatory risk. Okay, let's leave it as a cliffhanger. And you're always welcome here back on the show, Bloomberg Tech. Thank you very much for coming in. That does do it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech. I want to check on the markets. Actually, in the course of that conversation, the NASDAQ 100 headed south. It's paired some of its declines, but we're down 1.2%. SpaceX is not at session highs, but it is up 10%.

52:34Ed Ludlow:It is past Amazon on market value as it stands. Where we close, who knows, long time away. and maybe it will eclipse Microsoft and market cap by the close as well. Stay with us on Bloomberg TV throughout the day. What a show it's been. Recap on the podcast. Really appreciate all of you that do listen to the show as a podcast. You know where to find it on Bloomberg, Spotify, Apple, and iHeart. From San Francisco, this is Bloomberg Tech.

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