In short
Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Tech - US Considers Permits for Global Nvidia, AMD AI Chip Sales
Episode Overview In this episode, hosts Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow discuss significant news impacting the technology sector, particularly regarding AI chip sales, Oracle's workforce cuts, and emerging threats in the defense landscape related to AI.
Key Topics Discussed
- US Commerce Department Draft Regulations: The US government is considering new regulations that would restrict the export of AI chips, requiring a licensing system for shipments worldwide.
- Oracle's Job Cuts: Oracle plans to significantly reduce its workforce due to cash flow issues arising from heavy investments in AI data center infrastructure.
- Pentagon's Concerns: The Pentagon has identified Anthropic as a potential risk to the US supply chain, leading to legislative notifications and industry reactions.
Detailed Breakdown
- US Commerce Department Regulations
- Draft Regulation Details:
- A proposed licensing requirement for AI chips sent globally.
- Export licenses will vary based on the quantity of chips—requiring more scrutiny for larger orders, especially those exceeding 200,000 chips.
- The US may push for investments in domestic AI capabilities from countries seeking chip exports.
- Commerce Department's Clarification:
- The regulations are not intended as an outright ban on NVIDIA exports, but rather a means to exert control over the AI chip market.
- The new rules reflect a nuanced approach towards different countries and batch sizes.
- Oracle's Planned Job Cuts
- Context:
- Oracle faces a cash crunch due to its aggressive expansion into AI data centers.
- The company is planning one of the largest layoffs in its history, impacting thousands of jobs.
- Impact of AI on Employment:
- The layoffs reflect a broader trend where companies are evaluating the necessity of roles as AI tools become more prevalent.
- CEO Jennifer Tejada of PagerDuty discussed the shift in hiring practices, emphasizing a shift towards efficiency and leveraging AI for productivity.
- Pentagon's Notification on Anthropic
- Risk Assessment:
- The Pentagon’s designation of Anthropic raises concerns about the company's influence on national security and supply chain integrity.
- Anthropic plans to contest the Pentagon's decision legally, which could involve broader impacts on their enterprise contracts.
- Market Reactions
- Stock Market Trends:
- The tech sector is experiencing downturns, with notable declines in chip stocks and the Nasdaq 100 index.
- Investors are reacting cautiously to geopolitical tensions, inflation pressures, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
- Geopolitical and Economic Impacts
- Global Tensions:
- The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has implications for oil prices and broader market sentiment.
- Analysts suggest a phase of capital preservation among investors, leading to shifts in tech portfolios and investment strategies.
Key Takeaways
- The US government's proposed licensing system for AI chip exports marks a significant shift in how technology exports will be managed, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions.
- Oracle's job cuts highlight the impact of AI on employment, raising questions about future workforce needs in tech.
- The Pentagon’s concerns regarding Anthropic underline the increasing scrutiny of AI companies in relation to national security.
- Ongoing geopolitical conflicts are influencing market dynamics, prompting a cautious approach from investors amid pressures on tech stocks.
Conclusion The episode highlights the intersection of technology, policy, and global geopolitical dynamics. As the US navigates its role in the evolving AI landscape, companies like Oracle and Anthropic are at the forefront of these changes, reflecting both the opportunities and challenges posed by AI integration into business practices.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOUS AI Chip Regulations Overview
1:41 to 2:06
Explore new US regulations on global AI chip shipments.
“Commerce Department has drafted regulations restricting AI chip shipments to anywhere in the world without American approval.”
Market Impact and Economic Context
2:06 to 2:46
Understand the market reactions amid geopolitical tensions and economic data.
“Some extraordinary news on the private sector and indeed on the public markets right now.”
Draft Rules for AI Chip Licensing
2:46 to 3:52
Get insights on the implications of draft rules for AI chip licensing.
“The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down in this session, down on the week and headed for two straight weeks of declines for the first time since November.”
Government's Response to AI Chip Draft Rules
3:52 to 4:50
Learn about the government’s stance on AI chip exports and licensing.
“may ask nations to invest in AI within U.S.”
Tech Industry Analysis Amid Regulatory Changes
4:50 to 6:00
Delve into the broader implications for tech companies like NVIDIA and AMD.
“Maggie, an important point here is it doesn't necessarily change U.S.”
The Geopolitical Landscape Impacting Tech
6:00 to 6:57
Examine the geopolitical factors influencing technology markets today.
“Just focus in on what potentially the U.S.”
Investment Strategies in a Volatile Market
6:57 to 8:07
Discover strategies investors are using in the current tech market.
“is in more of a power solution versus being ripped off globally.”
Palantir's Role in Defense Technology
8:07 to 9:10
Understand Palantir's significance in modern defense and data analysis.
“And what I mean by that is there's a lot of de-risking going on in tech portfolios.”
Anthropic and Palantir's Partnership Challenges
9:10 to 10:17
Explore the challenges faced by Palantir regarding its partnership with Anthropic.
“In tech, every single conference call I'm on and I listen to over 70 during earnings season, everybody is passing on price.”
Government's Need for Technology Innovation
10:17 to 11:37
Learn about the government's necessity for advanced tech in defense.
“You'd expect it to be in the spotlight right now.”
Show all 27 chapters
AI's Impact on Tech Job Market
14:00 to 15:10
Explore how AI is influencing job cuts and headcount planning in tech.
“And yeah, I mean, it is certainly a rough market out there for jobs in the tech industry.”
Insights from PagerDuty's CEO on Workforce Changes
15:10 to 16:40
Learn how PagerDuty is adapting its hiring strategies in response to AI.
“I spoke with her at Bloomberg's New Voices event earlier this week where she said AI's impact on productivity is changing the way her company fills vacant positions.”
Analyzing Recent Job Cuts and Their Causes
16:40 to 18:45
Understand the factors behind the recent job cuts in the U.S. labor market.
“How much longer could it be until AI does impact to the labor market?”
Examining AI's Delayed Labor Market Effects
18:45 to 20:25
Investigate why AI's impact on the labor market is not yet visible in the data.
“Martha, yeah, we saw in information about 11 ,000 jobs gone out of those 92 ,000.”
The Importance of Data in Evaluating AI's Impact
20:25 to 21:25
Discover why a data-driven approach is essential when assessing AI's influence.
“One is there's huge selection in who even makes a statement about layoffs.”
Robinhood and SoftBank's Financial Moves
23:44 to 26:02
Discuss recent fundraising efforts by Robinhood and SoftBank's loan plans.
“tool output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures It's time now for Talking Tech.”
AI Supply Chain Threats and Market Reactions
26:02 to 28:00
Examine the implications of AI being labeled a supply chain risk.
“This is what markets look like on Friday to end the week.”
Consumer Trends in AI Apps
28:00 to 29:40
Exploring shifts in consumer interest toward AI applications like ChatGPT and Claude.
“I think it's going to take a while to figure out exactly how customers react to this.”
Data Centers as Targets
29:40 to 31:20
Discussing the vulnerabilities of data centers in geopolitical conflicts.
“As you said, there is clarification that really it wouldn't extend to too many parts of the other companies that use Claude only with Pentagon contracts.”
Protecting Vulnerable Data Centers
31:20 to 33:00
Evaluating strategies to enhance the security of data centers against physical attacks.
“Data centers are becoming increasingly central to a very broad range of economic life, national security activities, and they are fundamentally soft targets.”
Strategic Locations for Data Centers
33:00 to 35:00
Analyzing optimal locations for building data centers from a U.S. perspective in light of security risks.
“You wrote about it in July in an opinion column, really saying that the Gulf is not a place to be building out these data centers, Sam.”
Impact of Middle East Conflict on Supply Chains
35:00 to 36:40
Investigating how the Middle East conflict affects global automotive supply chains.
“And I would also say that these drone strikes do also underscore that data centers all over the world could be a threat.”
Semiconductor Industry Insights
38:21 to 42:01
Examining the semiconductor supply landscape amid rising demand for AI applications.
“When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing.”
AI Infrastructure and Component Shortages
42:01 to 43:19
Explore the balance of AI infrastructure needs and potential component shortages.
“And that's the business cases which also AI needs.”
The Rise of AI Data Center Camps
43:31 to 45:57
Learn how the construction of data centers is impacting housing and local economies.
“To power the boom in data center building, companies are heading far outside of Silicon Valley and cities in general.”
Companies Thriving in the Data Center Boom
45:58 to 48:35
Discover which companies are capitalizing on the demand for temporary housing near data centers.
“Bloomberg's Joe reporter, Bloomberg's reporter Joe Lovinger.”
The Temporary Nature of Data Center Jobs
48:36 to 49:04
Understand the temporary job landscape and its implications for local communities.
“And when you speak with local officials, even in a place like Dickens County that has not seen a project nearly of this scale.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Ed Ludlow:Adobe is turning AI promise into marketing reality. A reality where personalization feels more human, automation feels authentic, and customers feel more connected to your brand. From AI frenzy to ROI, it starts with Adobe.
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1:30Caroline Hyde:Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco. This is Bloomberg Tech. Coming up, Bloomberg reports the U.S. Commerce Department has drafted regulations restricting AI chip shipments to anywhere in the world without American approval. Plus, Oracle plans to cut thousands of jobs as it handles a cash crunch from a massive AI data center expansion effort. And the Pentagon has officially notified lawmakers that it has determined Anthropic and its products pose a risk to the U.S. supply chain. Some extraordinary news on the private sector and indeed on the public markets right now.
2:11Caroline Hyde:And we're seeing ourselves off by about three quarters percent on the Nasdaq 100. coming off of our lows, but we're down on the week. The S &P 500 having its worst week since October of last year. And in large part, it's because of what's happening to oil prices. And we're in a sixth day of conflict with the Middle East, with Iran, and we're seeing oil up 6%. At one point, we're now, of course, eclipsing$91 on the Brent, on the global contract. All of this adding to inflation pressure when we're seeing weakness in the labor market. Non-farm payrolls, a surprise loss in jobs, no additions. And we're also seeing, therefore, money coming out of some of those risk assets.
2:43Caroline Hyde:Bitcoin off by 3.6 % today. Ed, what are you looking at? Yeah, chip stocks are under pressure. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down in this session, down on the week and headed for two straight weeks of declines for the first time since November. Bloomberg News is reporting that the Commerce Department has drafted new rules that would restrict US shipments of AI chips worldwide, giving Washington broad authority over whether other countries can build facilities to train and run artificial intelligence models. That's all according to sources. Bloomberg Tech and Industrial Policy reporter Maggie Eastland joins us with the latest.
3:18Caroline Hyde:Let's get into the content of those draft rules and what Bloomberg's reported. What do we need to know? Of course.
3:26Ed Ludlow:So as we've reported, there is a license requirement for AI chips sent almost anywhere in the world. Now, whether or not these licenses will be handed out depends a lot on how many chips, as compared to a Blackwell, an NVIDIA Blackwell, how many of those chips does each end user want to purchase. And now on the higher end, for end users wanting to purchase up to 200 ,000, that may actually require and the U.S. may ask nations to invest in AI within U.S. borders.
3:57Caroline Hyde:So this opens up an opportunity for chip licenses to become a factor in global trade talks. Something that I'm sure many a country will bristle at, Maggie. What's interesting is that the Commerce Department has responded, and they say the draft rule isn't meant to function as an NVIDIA export ban. Can you just give us the nuance of how the government has responded to your reporting?
4:21Ed Ludlow:right so this response shows and tries to emphasize that this is not the same as the biden administration and their diffusion rule it's one thing is it is not based on countries however there is a big role here that the government is playing as a gatekeeper and whether or not this is more restrictive is ultimately going to depend on how the u.s decides to dole out these licenses. And it does have the leeway to be more or less strict with that.
4:50Caroline Hyde:Maggie, an important point here is it doesn't necessarily change U.S. policy with regards to China right now. You outlined that. But there seems to be like this tiered response. If it's a small batch of chips for a small data center project, lighter review. But at the other end of the extreme in our reporting, it seems to indicate that you have a nation state country to country negotiation if the US is going to allow the export of cutting edge AI accelerators.
5:22Ed Ludlow:Exactly. As you say, for any shipments over 200 ,000 Blackwell equivalents, there will have to be a nation to nation negotiation. And it is sort of a tiered response. if it's under 1 ,000 chips, that's going to be a lot easier to get approval. But again, as you work up the chain
5:39Caroline Hyde:and want more and more chips, the U.S. is going to be asking for more in return. Maggie Eastland, on what the U.S., we understand, is currently considering, we so appreciate it. Now, let's stick with global tech news. Ted Mortensen is with us. He's Baird Managing Director. He oversees technology research. Boy, is there a lot to be trying to digest as someone who analyzes tech right now. Just focus in on what potentially the U.S. could be thinking about here and overseeing of basically how NVIDIA and AMD export to the rest of the world. Your reaction?
6:11Ed Ludlow:I think it's a broader focus. It also, let's face facts. I mean, the Trump administration is providing a broad blanket, not only on energy policy. Look what we've done in Venezuela. Look what we're doing in Iran right now. But also on rare earths. This all feeds together in one big ecosystem. And I think they just want control of what's happening on our next generation silicon at that three and two nanometer node. This is one of the reasons why we've built eight fabs at TSM in Arizona. We have to control that technology specifically at that two nanometer node because that's where all the AI chip development is going.
6:55Ed Ludlow:So I think they're just trying to get their arms around the whole situation that the U.S. is in more of a power solution versus being ripped off globally.
7:07Caroline Hyde:A power solution first. I mean, at the moment, we're seeing a negative reaction to the stocks on the back of that story. In fact, very few stocks are in the green today. And maybe Marvell and Broadcom outperformed because of numbers. We see defense tech outperformed. And Ted, what do you do in this current geopolitical moment of tension?
7:27Ed Ludlow:So I'm on with some very big clients, you know, constantly, whether it be during the day or even at night lately during earnings. And I think what people are doing is we're kind of post last Saturday and there's not a lot of cycle experience. I mean, I'm old, so I've seen pretty much all this. It doesn't really surprise me that much. But we're now in this, I would call it a capital preservation phase where when you don't have a clear picture of what could happen, whether it be on the commodity side, the rate environment, you tend to go to a capital preservation mode. And what I mean by that is there's a lot of de-risking going on in tech portfolios.
8:13Ed Ludlow:And there's been some very violent moves between software and also semiconductors. And I think there's also some PMs that are, quite frankly, just moving to other sectors that are a little bit more defensive.
8:28Caroline Hyde:So, you know, Caroline outlined right at the top of the show the sort of trajectory of the NASDAQ 100, right? I think on track for its worst week since October. Then I said chips are following a similar pattern, back-to-back weekly declines for the first time since November. It seems a strange question, but what is the main catalyst in this market right now? What is it that your clients are saying is driving their psychology when you're on the phone with them?
8:55Ed Ludlow:They need clarity. Everybody's looking at the 10-year. I mean, it reversed down to the 4.12 range earlier in the day. Now it's back. last time I checked it at a 417 range. They're worried about a potential spike in rates. There's inflation everywhere. In tech, every single conference call I'm on and I listen to over 70 during earnings season, everybody is passing on price. So I think the institutional investor is looking at locking in gains on some really leadership stocks, building some more cash levels just to be more nimble, buying from the fearful, selling to the needy is a discussion I have almost every single conversation.
9:39Ed Ludlow:And then the other things that portfolio managers are doing is they're upgrading their portfolio. And this is a great opportunity when the markets are down to really look at these eight companies with unbelievable management teams, product cycles that move into Agentic and free cash flow is king. And if you do a screen on those names, there's a bunch of tech companies that are way off their highs. And that's where we're doing most of the work.
10:08Caroline Hyde:It's actually the S &P 500, I think, that's having the rough week relative to the NASDAQ 100. One name that is having a very good week is Palantir. It's up almost 13%. And that's logical, right? Caroline was making the point, I think it was Monday, maybe Tuesday, that with everything that's happening with the war in Iran, and indeed, the back and forth between the Department of Defense, the Pentagon and AI providers, that you'd expect that name to be higher. You'd expect it to be in the spotlight right now.
10:42Ed Ludlow:It truly is one of these next generation companies that has been put in pretty much every single agency. They started with the army, but they've gone to the Space Force the Navy, pretty much every single industry. And if you just connect the dots on our success in Iran is based upon Palantir being embedded in the IDF, the Israeli Defense Force, as well as all of our, pretty much I would assume all of our agencies in relationship to our Department of War. This gives the warfighter, and I flew for a lot of years, and I feel so antiquated on what my new naval aviators have at their disposal. They can see around corners.
11:31Ed Ludlow:They can see the battlefield in real time. And that's really because of a lot of the Palantir software and their ability to really take on an immense amount of data and make sense of it.
11:46Caroline Hyde:I love hearing about that history and that understanding you have, Ted. Can you therefore opine a little bit on how difficult it might be for them to un-entwine themselves, if that's even a word, with Anthropic? Because Palantir has had a partnership with them. If we are seeing them forced out, is that going to be an issue for the business?
12:05Ed Ludlow:I think it's really political. I think at some point the Defense Department and the government will need Anthropic. And they'll find a way of somewhere in the middle. Same thing with OpenAI. If you go back in the Wayback Machine, I mean, this has happened at Amazon. It's happened at Google. It's happened at Microsoft. We'll get there somehow. What I think your viewers need to understand is the U.S. government, specifically the Defense Department, needs the best technology. And I think what we're using is kind of a strong arm tactic to get them back at the table and to get to some middle ground.
12:49Caroline Hyde:Ted Mordenton of Baird with a very close view of what's happening between technology and the world, the state of the world right now. I really appreciate it. Now, coming up in the program, Oracle plans to axe thousands of roles as soon as this month. We're going to discuss what is behind that move and the Bloomberg reporting. This is Bloomberg Tech.
13:20Caroline Hyde:Oracle is planning to cut thousands of jobs as it looks to manage a cash crunch driven by AI spending, according to sources. Let's get the details of Bloomberg's Brody Ford, who broke the story. Lots of detail in the report, the size, the scope, the when. What do we need to know?
13:37Ed Ludlow:it costs a lot of money to build data centers right oracle is betting its company on the fact that it will be an ai infrastructure provider and over the next couple of years that means negative cash flow it's feeling a crunch and so it's responding right it's planning what appears to be one of the largest layoffs on record for the company thousands of workers impacted as soon as this month. And yeah, I mean, it is certainly a rough market out there for jobs in the tech industry. And this is just one more data point for that.
14:10Caroline Hyde:Brody, it needs money for AI and the infrastructure of it. It needs less people because of AI. And you say that the job cuts are going to be coming to those where I assume the latest, greatest AI agent is going to be able to perform for them.
14:25Ed Ludlow:Exactly. Yeah, I think every management team right now, everybody who has a P &L is being asked, hey, when you're doing your headcount planning, let's think about what roles we need less of. We all know these AI tools aren't quite there in terms of replacing people, but in terms of time saving, in terms of, hey, maybe if you had a team of 10 people, can we do it with eight people? From what we are hearing from sources, that is certainly a factor in this layoff, though at the end of the day, it's cost cutting. I think that's the big story rather than it being, you know, AI is so amazing that we can replace people.
15:03Caroline Hyde:Yeah. The nuance on whether it's AI washing or not continues. Exactly. Brody Ford, thank you so much for joining us on that story. Look, another tech leader has been acknowledging the impact of AI on jobs. PagerDuty CEO Jennifer Tejada. I spoke with her at Bloomberg's New Voices event earlier this week where she said AI's impact on productivity is changing the way her company fills vacant positions.
15:25Ed Ludlow:Yeah, we've tried to move the word backfill from our vocabulary because that sort of infers that you need something exactly like what you have before. And the market is moving so fast that by the time one person exits a role, you actually need to think completely differently about what the opportunity is to add capacity to your team in a new way.
15:45Caroline Hyde:So are you seeing fewer people working at PagerDuty? And how does that perhaps change the conversation you're having with employees?
15:53Ed Ludlow:Well, I think employees understand that we're looking for each of them to demonstrate not only productivity and efficiency, but higher velocity in the innovation. And I stand up at town hall almost every month and say, I'm not asking you to work more. I'm not asking you to work harder. I'm asking you to work differently. I'm asking you to embrace and leverage AI in service of competitive advantage, but mostly in service of our customers, right? And I think that's exciting for most employees.
16:25Caroline Hyde:That was PagerDuty CEO Jennifer Tejada. Now, U.S. employers did unexpectedly slash 92 ,000 jobs last month, raising the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Those cuts are being blamed on strikes at major health care providers and servers, whether not AI. How much longer could it be until AI does impact to the labor market? Martha Gimbel, executive director of the Yale Budget Lab, has been doing research on AI labor market impact and joins us. We every week, month and quarter wait for the definitive data set that says AI is doing something here. Have you seen it yet? Will we see it soon?
17:10Ed Ludlow:I really haven't seen it yet. I think everyone is so focused on what the technology can do because the technology is so amazing. that they're jumping straight to, and therefore we're going to really quickly see these labor market impacts. I think it's really important to keep in mind, there are a lot of things that affect deployment of technology, IT policies, economic pressures, demographic changes, liability concerns. And so the question isn't just what can the technology do, but how quickly is society going to and companies going to rearrange itself around it?
17:50Caroline Hyde:The news is that, you know, the unexpected cut to jobs in February, that's the news. That's what's driving markets today. Within the data set, did you see anything? Did you go deep and say, okay, what can I put from this into my own model? Yeah.
18:07Ed Ludlow:And when you look at this data, I mean, strikes did play a role. So we should see those jobs coming back. But even if you take the strikes out, about 50 % of the job loss was in goods producing sectors as opposed to private service providing sectors. So things like manufacturing, construction, mining, and logging. Those are not sectors that we expect to be affected by AI in the same way. And for context, right, they were about 50 % of the cuts, but they're only 16 % of employment. And so that doesn't suggest that this is AI. It suggests that you maybe have impacts of tariffs, plus just some general cyclical weakening.
18:45Caroline Hyde:Martha, yeah, we saw in information about 11 ,000 jobs gone out of those 92 ,000. Can you tell us what data points we should look at then if it is going to be about productivity gains, if it is going to be more about different areas that are starting to see the impact of an AI agent, for example?
Read the full transcript
19:05Ed Ludlow:Yeah, one of the things that I've been looking at is how quickly the just composition of jobs in our economy is changing because we gain and lose jobs all the time. That's a pretty standard part of an economy. And so just because we lose jobs in one month, it doesn't mean that we should immediately assume that it's AI related job loss. But if we're losing jobs predominantly in one sector, or a couple of sectors that are unusual that look like AI, that's a signal that maybe this is starting to happen. And that's why, at Budget Lab, we've been tracking this measure of occupational distribution every month.
19:40Ed Ludlow:and it still isn't really flashing anything. I think it's really important to separate out the vibes on AI in the labor market from what's happening in the data. And, you know, I think you're just seeing broad agreement that it's not in the data yet. You just saw a report from Anthropic come out yesterday saying, yeah, we're really not seeing macroeconomic impacts here yet.
20:01Caroline Hyde:Vibes are one thing, but Jack Dorsey saying he's cutting half of his staff is a data point. And yes, we can say whether there's some AI washing within it, but still there are executives saying we are not backfilling. We are using AI. We are cutting half of our staff because we think AI is at a cusp where we can do more with it, Martha. When does that start to leach in?
20:24Ed Ludlow:Do you think tracking CEO statements is not the ideal way to look at this for a couple of reasons? One is there's huge selection in who even makes a statement about layoffs. your hardware store down the street is not issuing a statement every time they lay someone off. There's selection effects in whose statements get covered, right? The statement from Jack Dorsey was, you know, very eye-catching, and so it got picked up. And also, frankly, you know, CEOs have incentives to talk about things in a certain way. Shareholders want to hear that they're making AI investments and driving productivity.
20:59Ed Ludlow:And they may not even have a perfect sense of what hiring would look like in the absence of AI. And so I do think it's a moment where, you know, yes, we should listen to people about what's going on. We should listen to CEOs. But it's really important to go back to the data and make sure we're taking a really data-driven approach here rather than, you know, following the latest company announcement.
21:22Caroline Hyde:And that is why your data approach is so important. Some of the research you do is just great. Go and read it. Labor market AI exposure. What do we know? For example, Martha Gimbel, Executive Director and co-founder at the Yale Budget Lab. We appreciate you. Now coming up, SoftBank in search of$40 million to fuel its AI ambitions. More on that next. This is Bloomberg Tech.
21:45Ed Ludlow:Effective marketing is smarter, not louder. Cutting edge technology alone won't deliver better experiences or outcomes. Adobe helps marketers use data and AI to drive smarter engagement, reduce noise and use AI effectively and responsibly. The brands winning in the AI era aren't the ones chasing every trend. They're the ones with the right systems and strategy. It's time to lead with insight, agility, and innovation. It starts with Adobe.
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23:59Caroline Hyde:It's time now for Talking Tech. And first up, Robinhood raised$658 million for its closed-end fund designed to give U.S. retail investors access to private companies. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev joined Open Interest. Just take a listen.
24:13Ed Ludlow:Robinhood Ventures is a closed-end fund listed on the NYSE that invests in private companies. The idea is we raise the capital in an IPO and then we invest that capital in private companies. And so far, we've got a portfolio of frontier names in their industries. You mentioned Databricks, Aura, Mercore, Revolut, Ramp. Those are just some of the companies that are part of this portfolio.
24:43Caroline Hyde:Class Uber. Well, it has posted job listings that suggest the ride share company is stepping up efforts to test a subscription offering for drivers and couriers around the world. Now, the move underscores a sharper focus on subscriptions as emerging competitors lure drivers with flat fee models. And SoftBank, well, it's seeking up to$40 billion from banks to help finance its investment in OpenAI. Now, that's according to sources. The roughly 12-month bridge loan will be underwritten by four lenders, including JPMorgan Chase. Look, SoftBank has been unloading assets, in fact, including its stake in NVIDIA to bankroll its growing bet on OpenAI.
25:17Caroline Hyde:But, Ed, it's an interesting time to be wanting more banks to be syndicating debt at the moment exposed to AI. Because credit pressure is building. On SoftBank in particular, but broadly, a 12-month bridge loan. And remind yourself that$40 billion is their largest ever US-denominated borrowing, Cara. Isn't it? Also, within that conversation, we're just hearing from Vlad Tenev and Robin Hood. On one side, people still wanting access to private markets. But then we have today the news around BlackRock and its private market credit fund and having to say, look, you can't keep taking money from it at the moment.
25:49Caroline Hyde:It's really extraordinary moves. Yeah, we've been on top of it all week. That credit story is not going away. Okay, coming up, we're going to discuss the data center threats in the Middle East with Sam Winterlevy of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. That's next. It's halftime. This is Bloomberg Tech.
26:14Caroline Hyde:Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. This is what markets look like on Friday to end the week. There's a lot going on in the context of Bloomberg's reporting on the tech sector and the war in Iran. The Nasdaq 100 is off session lows, but down eight tenths of a percent. And bonds have kind of been wavering. You see the U.S. 10-year yield at 4.14%. Interestingly, a lot of pressure on the Nasdaq 100 in the moment is coming from some of the mega cap names. I was talking with the team, Caro, on the equities desk. What's going on? There is some kind of stabilization in memory pricing, for example. We know that there's a recalculation in recent days of capital expenditures that impacts some of the hyperscalers.
26:53Caroline Hyde:But you look at Apple, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, those are on a points basis the biggest drags right now. And not that much in the news flow beyond. It's just, I guess, a volatile week politically speaking. And as we went through with Ted, there's a lot that the market needs clarity on. Yeah. Let's talk about one of those stories, politically speaking. anthropic. It's vowed to legally contest a Pentagon decision that declared the company a U.S. supply chain threat, a designation typically reserved for foreign adversaries, capping off a very turbulent week in the AI race. Bloomberg's Shereen Khafari joins us now for more on the unfolding AI saga that you have been at the forefront of reporting with for at least a week now.
27:31Caroline Hyde:It was last week where we first saw the explosive conversation around being deemed a supply chain risk, and now it's come in writing.
27:41Ed Ludlow:That's right. And, you know, Dario Amadei, the CEO of Anthropic, also put out a memo yesterday saying that he believes that the order is narrow in scope to the effect that it won't actually impact, hopefully, business with customers who are not the government or working directly with the Pentagon. I think it's going to take a while to figure out exactly how customers react to this.
28:08Caroline Hyde:A few places that we've looked over recent days, interesting. There's the sensor tower data on uninstalls and downloads, and there's the app stores. And as part of the Q &AI newsletter, we're going to look at this idea that there have been changes in ChatGPT, OpenAI's tool, in terms of downloads and uninstalls, and then Claude, Anthropics. What are you seeing?
28:31Ed Ludlow:Yeah, so it's really interesting because Anthropics' Claude business has historically been more enterprise, especially in the past year. And now we're seeing this shift, this sort of consumer bump for the Claude app. And a lot of that is because some users agree with the company's stance on pushing for restrictions on surveillance and autonomous weaponry in their negotiations with the Department of War. So now those gains are up to a million downloads a day. Yesterday, the company was saying. That being said, ChatGPT by far has a large majority of the market share here. It's going to take a lot of sustained growth at that level for Anthropic to even come close to ChatGPT on the consumer side.
29:17Ed Ludlow:But consumer support, any kind of support is much needed for Anthropic right now.
29:22Caroline Hyde:So that is an interesting bump. In terms of just where they stand in consumer penetration, it is much smaller than OpenAI more broadly. How much of a concern is it to Anthropic that the enterprise part of the business could be impacted if they are asked to uninstall? As you said, there is clarification that really it wouldn't extend to too many parts of the other companies that use Claude only with Pentagon contracts.
29:51Ed Ludlow:That's right. This is the million, billion, multi-billion dollar question, right? Anthropic has grown very rapidly in the past year. It's now at a reported 19 billion in run rate revenue. However, a majority of that does come from enterprise contracts. So if they are enterprise business, so if they are losing marquee customers over this who may also have dealings themselves with the Pentagon and are worried about the implications of the supplier risk designation, that could be devastating to Anthropics. So that is a big question, is how, why does the supplier risk designation really go? Will Anthropics end up legally challenging it?
30:30Ed Ludlow:And is this issue resolved? I think that's going to be the question to watch for customers.
30:36Caroline Hyde:Bloomberg, Shereen Ghaffari, thank you very much. And as tensions rise between Washington and leading AI firms, the global stakes are growing as well. Data centers, the backbone of artificial intelligence, have now emerged as potential targets in the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Let's bring in Sam Winterlevy, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Fellow. 24 hours ago, we went to our correspondent in the EMEA region and went through the specific sites that have been targeted, the reason why. And just for the audience, Amazon owns and operates some of those facilities. You've had time to do your own research and study of the data, how does this fit in, this idea that data centers are a target in the context of a war in Iran and a conflict between the United States and Iran?
31:25Ed Ludlow:Sure, yeah. So thanks so much for having me. Data centers are becoming increasingly central to a very broad range of economic life, national security activities, and they are fundamentally soft targets. So for the Iranians looking for targets that they could hit that could cause disruption, could try to broaden the conflict, could bring the conflict home to the United States, targeting a data center that is operated by a U.S. company, that's a symbol of U.S.-Gulf cooperation, it becomes quite an appealing target given how easy they are to hit with a drone, with a barrage of missile strikes, given how fragile and vulnerable these facilities are.
31:59Caroline Hyde:Vulnerable. How do you protect a data center in this case? Sure.
32:05Ed Ludlow:So it's hard. So fundamentally, these data centers are filled with GPUs. They're very fragile, it's quite easy to take out a chiller, which are these things that keep the data centers cool, keep the servers cool, or to take out a generator or the transformers that provide electricity to the data center. There are things you can do. You can use more reinforced concrete. You can try to harden the facilities. You can use air defense systems, anti-drone devices, jamming systems, anti-missile systems. But all of this drives up the costs of building a data center, and none of this will guarantee security against a kind of swarm of cheap drones, and it's very, very expensive to protect against these sorts of cheap strikes.
32:40Ed Ludlow:So there are things you can do to protect them. I think historically these companies and the governments have been much more focused on protecting data centers from cyber attacks, protecting them from trespasses, but much less focused on strikes from drones or from missiles, which is an inevitable risk, I think, to building expensive infrastructure in a region where drones and missile strikes are unfortunately a real risk to worry about.
33:04Caroline Hyde:And you saw this risk. You wrote about it in July in an opinion column, really saying that the Gulf is not a place to be building out these data centers, Sam. But also the Gulf is the place longer term with more abundant energy. And the Gulf is the place that also needs AI for its own citizens. So what do they do?
33:23Ed Ludlow:Yeah, so the Gulf has huge ambitions in the AI race. And they're very appealing partners for the United States for many reasons. Energy, capital, all the things you mentioned. So I think it's inevitable that data centers are going to be built out in the region. I think this underscores the risks of building the biggest computing clusters there, the most critical infrastructure. I think that the United States should think very carefully about where it wants to site that sort of infrastructure. But some degree of data center construction is inevitable in the Gulf. But I think governments and the companies that operate the data centers need to think much more carefully about their resilience plans, their redundancy plans, how to protect them from these sorts of physical risks.
33:59Ed Ludlow:Because as you said, this was a foreseeable risk. These targets are soft. the more they become symbols of technological might, the more they become central to economic life, the more appealing they become as targets for non-state actors or for hostile states that want to cause disruption.
34:13Caroline Hyde:Okay, there is a lot that goes into a decision as to where to put a data center, not only about the power that's accessible, the water, but the people and the labor and the costs, Sam. Therefore, with your Carnegie and Talman international peace hat on, Where should these be built from a U.S. perspective?
34:32Ed Ludlow:So I think these data centers are going to be built all over the world. I think we should be building them all over the world. I think for the biggest, most important, most critical computing clusters, the United States should be thinking carefully about siding them in close U.S. allies, NATO states, within the United States itself, areas where they can be kind of protected from attacks or where they can be more easily protected from attacks. That's not to say that we shouldn't be building big facilities in the Gulf too, but probably not our most critical computing clusters. And I would also say that these drone strikes do also underscore that data centers all over the world could be a threat.
35:07Ed Ludlow:So even a data center in Europe could well be targeted by Russian sabotage, for example. You know, these are fragile sites wherever they're started.
35:15Caroline Hyde:Sam, you know, the argument the Gulf is not the place to build the world's AI infrastructure. the reality is that is exactly where they're building the world's AI infrastructure. And it's where the capital is coming from. And it's where NVIDIA and AMD have deals to send their chips. And you have capital flowing from the Gulf into the United States to fund infrastructure projects in the United States. I mean, I welcome any response to that reality that you have.
35:45Ed Ludlow:Yes, I think that is the reality to some extent. The question is to what extent we go forward with these types of projects. It remains to be seen what this will look like after this conflict. I think it's certainly going to drive up insurance premiums. It may make it harder to attract engineering talent to build out these data centers. I think this won't make the UAE or the Saudi Arabia rethink their plans to any great extent, but I think it will complicate those plans. I think it should make the U.S. government much more cautious about where it's its most critical data centers. But again, as I said, data centers are going to be built everywhere.
36:20Ed Ludlow:I think this attack should be a wake-up call that all of these data centers need to think much more seriously about physical attacks and not just cyber attacks, digital disruptions, natural disasters.
36:28Caroline Hyde:A wake-up call you've been trying to give for at least six months now. Sam, when to leave you, we appreciate your time of Carnegie Endowment for international peace. Coming up, how are supply chain risks impacting the world's largest automotive supplier? We're actually going to hear from the Bosch CEO now, Stefan Herteng. that's Nexus Bloomberg Tech.
36:49Ed Ludlow:If you're building software of any kind, you really want to check out Sentry. Most tools just tell you something broke, but Sentry actually connects everything together. Errors, traces, session replays, logs, they're all in one place so you can see the full chain of events that led to an issue. There's no more jumping between five different tabs or pasting code into an LLM to piece together what happened. Sentry supports over 100 languages and frameworks across front-end, back-end, and mobile. Quit bugging and try it free at s-c-n-t-r-y dot i-o. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously.
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38:30Ed Ludlow:Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out Odoo at odoo.com. That's odoo.com.
39:00Caroline Hyde:The conflict in the Middle East is in its seventh day, And with President Trump insisting on unconditional surrender from Iran, concerns about the impact on global supply chains are rising. I spoke with Bosch CEO Stefan Houghton about what that's meant for the automotive industry so far.
39:16Ed Ludlow:We've seen that EVs have heard the first wave and that was not as big as we all expected, especially in the U.S. We saw less demand than we actually were hoping for. So now a second wave comes in with still EVs, but also plug-in hybrid vehicles or range extender vehicles. That's a very interesting technology, which you also see in China. So very much all work is now focused on this combination of electric vehicle technology and engine technology. And this engine technology is a modern engine technology with a differentiated engine. So Bosch is doing this work because we have kept our capability in engine work, ICs.
39:54Ed Ludlow:and we can combine these two into the plug-in and hybrid vehicles. Very important. So I expect actually demand for these kind of vehicles to be rising quickly because they are more fuel efficient. And same time, they have a range which you want to have and you can still pull a boat or have a heavy vehicle, which is practically of use for many people.
40:14Caroline Hyde:But the situation with the war in Iran has any impact or bearing on that?
40:19Ed Ludlow:Well, I think people will be sensitive always now a bit more on what gas prices are, how much they have to spend for the vehicle, what's the vehicle use, and probably this plug-in hybrid vehicles or hybrid vehicles in total with a certain electrical range, which is really useful. So you can drive electrically for a certain range and then you have to or you will switch over to gasoline. This is something which is for the market the optimal solution as of now. It looks like it. And obviously, people becoming more sensitive about gasoline prices means they will tend more not go from a pure ICE vehicle more to a combined so hybrid vehicle or even a full electric vehicle that's for sure.
40:59Caroline Hyde:We started this conversation with semiconductors you talked about the situation with the start of the year but also some parallels with the COVID era and the chip shock the chip crisis is this war in Iran different do you see there being a similar level of impact on semiconductor supply or bottleneck? And where are you most focused within the realm of silicon?
41:30Ed Ludlow:On silicon, I'm more watching the AI build up, because the AI build up, for example, demands a high amount of RAMs, right? And I also observe that because the same time we are looking at the ship supply for all applications we do, but at the same time, we're also applying AI in a massive volume. So that's a very important thing to monitor. These chips are used in AI data centers to build the AI we need to implement solutions like accident prevention in cars. And that's the business cases which also AI needs. So, yes, it is a balance. And yes, there will be probably a shortage in certain components because the ramp up of AI infrastructure is massive.
42:13Ed Ludlow:On the other hand, this infrastructure is used also in product we make. So it's used in household appliances, in power tools, in cars. And that's an important story to go forward.
42:25Caroline Hyde:Is there some panic right now in trying to secure memory in particular?
42:30Ed Ludlow:No, I wouldn't say there is panic. It's something we know. We have seen more severe chip crisis some years ago, right? But it's something obviously you need to look at because you also want the functionality, right? You want the AI functionality, you want the better automation of vehicles, you want the better assisted driving, because that's safer. It's better than just human driving. So also in the automation, you see probably both. You see the full automation, like in the EV, the full EV, right? But you see also the hybrid, which is the massive assisted automation, making a driver just a better driver.
43:03Ed Ludlow:And that's based on AI.
43:05Caroline Hyde:Bosch CEO there, Stefan Hartung. Coming up, the massive boom in AI data centers is driving demand for housing and amenities in remote parts of the country. We'll talk about the state that's on demand. Simulated golf. This is Bloomberg Tech.
43:30Caroline Hyde:Construction of data centers has led to increased competition for workers in areas with limited housing and amenities. Cue the rise of so-called AI man camps. Take a listen.
43:43Ed Ludlow:To power the boom in data center building, companies are heading far outside of Silicon Valley and cities in general. We're starting to see some pushback from cities where residents are kind of concerned about what living near a data center might mean for their property values and for their way of life. We're seeing projects push out further into rural stretches of places like Texas and Louisiana because you can get much cheaper land out there. and you can also find municipalities that are more willing to work with you when you need to negotiate things like power arrangements or zoning changes.
44:13Ed Ludlow:While the AI companies are duking it out to figure out whose model will win, there are these other companies that see opportunity just in the build-out itself. There is a huge demand to build data centers as quickly as they can, so housing becomes a big bottleneck. Most of these places that these projects are getting built now just do not have the infrastructure that they need for this. Hotels fill right up, RV parks are completely full with workers. All of a sudden there's a line at the grocery store or at the gas pump. We have a lot of these sort of single lane county roads, and they're not built for rows and rows of heavy duty trucks driving on them all day.
44:47Ed Ludlow:And so you get roads kind of deteriorating. People are paying thousands of dollars a month just to rent RV spaces near construction sites. We're seeing a wide range of companies get into this, all the way from Wiley locals that pitch together a little bit of land and sell the RV spots, all the way up to major publicly traded corporations helping house workers. They've helped with oil and gas and the shale boom. If you look at it from above, it looks like an Excel spreadsheet cut out of the middle of farmland. You get this paved surface where you have rows and rows of gray roofs and temporary housing.
45:17Ed Ludlow:They'll have their own toilet or they'll have their own sink. They always have Wi-Fi so that you can make video calls to family back home. And then there will be a shared communal kind of dining setup. They place so much emphasis on the food, not only because these guys are working so hard all day that they need the calories, but also because it's an easy way to attract workers when there's such competition for them. We'll also see a lot of amenity space. These are workers that are spending 15, 16 hours a day doing manual labor. You know, I figured when they got home they'd want to go to sleep, but apparently they're often gyms so they can get workouts in.
45:50Caroline Hyde:And you can see the rest of the full story from Bloomberg Originals on our website, on YouTube, or the terminal, and we want to get more on this story now. The driving force and the impact of these data center camps, Bloomberg's Joe reporter, Bloomberg's reporter Joe Lovinger. We were just seeing you there in the originals piece. And Joe, talk to us about some of the companies that are actually going to be thriving in this moment, the ones that are actually doing the building of, because people, there's a great quote in your story, people don't want to be basically sleeping in their trailer.
46:17Ed Ludlow:That's right. Thank you for having me. Well, we're seeing companies ranging all the way from smaller local companies that have been working on oil fields all the way up to publicly traded corporations where they're using the same assets that they were for immigration facilities or for major drilling projects during the shale boom. And they're using these assets now to build out these man camps. And so these are companies like Target Hospitality or Civio. And what they're able to do is reallocate their resources. Until recently, oil was not priced very lucratively, so drilling had kind of declined.
46:59Ed Ludlow:So this presented a new opportunity with all of these projects, especially as they're pushing out further into rural Texas, rural Louisiana, places that just, you know, you show up in a place like Dickens County, which I wrote about in the story, you know, you'll find a couple of restaurants, you might find a motel, but it's just not nearly enough for a 1 ,500-man workforce that's being brought in to build these data centers.
47:22Caroline Hyde:At a more macro level, the data is quite compelling. What the story is here, right? Jobs growth and the data center build out. Zoom out a bit. What direction is this heading in at scale? Right.
47:38Ed Ludlow:We've seen a state like Texas, for example. I mean, if you talk to the leaders, if you talk to the hyperscalers, they're very bullish on the opportunity for building data centers in Texas. There's abundant land here. There's abundant energy. And Texas leaders see this as an opportunity to overtake Virginia even in the data center space. So, you know, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that there's$700 billion worth of projects that are just in the planning stage right now. And I don't need to tell you, artificial intelligence, it's growing at a pace that really is hard to keep, you know, keep tabs on.
48:11Ed Ludlow:So these companies that I've spoken with, you know, they see a very, very high ceiling for where this build out can go.
48:19Caroline Hyde:I mean, the number of Bloomberg Intelligence is saying$700 billion worth of projects in the planning stage,$160 billion already underway. But Joe, the word camps kind of says it all in that these aren't permanent housing. Briefly, it's not long term jobs.
48:35Ed Ludlow:That's right. And when you speak with local officials, even in a place like Dickens County that has not seen a project nearly of this scale. They're aware that these jobs are not going to stick around forever and that while you might have some people that stick around to work on the data center once it's built, most of them are going to have to get out of town. So, you know, it's
48:57Caroline Hyde:temporary. Bloomberg's Joe Lovinger. Great reporting in video, in print. Great to have you on the program. Caro? Yeah, that does it for an extraordinary week on Bloomberg TechEd. Yeah, a lot to recap. do it on the podcast. You know where to find it. It's all on the screen there, but Spotify, iHeart and Apple. This is Bloomberg Tech.
49:18Ed Ludlow:If you love high stakes competition and incredible food, don't miss America's Culinary Cup, premiering Wednesday on CBS. 16 of the most decorated chefs in the country go head to head for an unprecedented$1 million prize. Hosted by Emmy-nominated food expert Padma Lakshmi, This is a high-pressure arena where every dish matters and one mistake sends you home. America's Culinary Cup premieres Wednesday after Survivor on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. If you're building software of any kind, you're really going to want to check out Sentry. Sentry is the all-in-one application code monitoring and fixing toolkit.
49:56Ed Ludlow:And Sentry doesn't just catch errors. It catches all the stuff that makes your app feel broken. The random slowdowns, the freezes you can't reproduce, and the bug that really just shows up randomly. Sentry supports over 100 languages and frameworks across front-end, back-end, and mobile. Try it free at sentry.io. This is Jacob Goldstein from What's Your Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales.
50:37Ed Ludlow:Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out Odoo at odoo.com. That's odoo.com.
From the publisher
Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow discuss reports that the US Commerce Department has drafted regulations restricting AI chip shipments to anywhere in the world without American approval. Plus, Oracle plans to cut thousands of jobs as it handles a cash crunch from a massive AI data center expansion effort. And, the Pentagon has officially notified lawmakers that it has determined Anthropic and its products pose a risk to the US supply chain.
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