The Thursday Show: Looking back on the biggest stories of 2024. Plus: RH picks up steam

25:27Part of this is, right, you have to be willing to personalize the space in a way that a lot of people still aren't because of that resale. So maybe that's another thing that you shouldn't let hold you back. I don't know. What do you think, Fred? it. That's interesting. I mean, I wonder if people have sort of internalized this frozen housing market and going like, oh, well, people just never buy and sell homes anymore. So I don't have to think about that. You know, it will never be possible for me to sell this home. So I'll do what I darn well please in it. And what I please is an aquamarine bathroom with a toilet seat cover with the clear plastic lid with the pennies in it.

26:02So I don't know. I do think it's possible that this frozen housing market is having some upsides and maybe colorful bathrooms are downstream of that. Well, as you can hear in my voice, I'm having a lot of fun with this whole story and all the responses from people. The clear takeaway message though was this is such a teeny tiny part of the overall market. The number of designers that are really unleashing colorful bathrooms on America, it's very few. That's the disappointing news. But the good news is it's happening more and more. So that's what I want to focus on. People are finding that freedom and I want them to enjoy it and I want them to send me all their pictures.

26:41All right, that's it for the news, but there's plenty more to check out on businessofhome.com, including a new AI design startup and the best debuts at Miami Art and Design Week. We'll be back in a minute, but first, a quick break.

27:00we're taking a quick break from the show to remind you about anthem plus smart showering only from kohler with anthem plus you can design a showering escape that commands up to 12 water outlets supports custom lighting environments to match any mood and allows for three levels of soothing steam set to music from personal playlists. Every moment asks the user to imagine, when you take a shower, where does your shower take you? Explore Anthem Plus smart showering at kohler.com slash showers. And now back to the show.

27:44And we're back. We're almost to the end of 2024 here. Time to look back on the year that was and maybe start to think about what 2025 has in store for us. To do all that, we have a killer lineup. Warren Schulberg, Business of Homes retail columnist. Warren, thank you for joining us. Glad to be here, Dennis. Thanks. So glad to have you. Caitlin Peterson, Business of Homes editor-in-chief. Caitlin. Hi, Dennis. So glad to have you. And Fred Nikolaus, Business of Homes executive editor. I refuse to stop talking. He's back again. So let's jump in by doing a bit of a vibe check and summarize in a word, if you will, what 2024 was all about.

28:29Warren, what have you come up with this year for us? So I've taken a little bit of liberty and I'm going with rock and roll, which in my world is still one word. Rock being short for rocky and roll being indicative of still rolling a little downhill. Interesting. Okay. So it's rocky and also a little bit of a negative vibe tied in. Okay. Caitlin, what about you? My word for the year was reset. I think after several years where no one really knew what to make of their year over year comps, where our industry has been so high, so low, so out of whack. This year felt a lot like hopefully finding a new baseline.

29:14So fingers crossed that one proves to be correct in hindsight. We'll see. Okay, Fred, what about you? Mine, and I mean it more positively than it sounds, is rock bottom. I think 2023 was a much more confusing, and I went with rock as well, Warren. 2023 was a much more confusing year. I think 2024 was just simply, okay, this is a bad time. Everyone is experiencing a lot of pain at all different parts of the market. But I also feel like most people, I think, feel like really the worst is in and next year is going to be better for real this time. So that's why I'm going with rock bottom. Dennis, what about you?

29:52What's your vibe for 2024? for. Yeah, I think very similar. I was thinking it's almost a feeling of resignation. There's this feeling of, yes, all this has happened. We're just resigned to it now. We're going to keep plugging ahead. And if you've made it this far, maybe 25 is going to get better. But you're a little resigned to really whatever happens because this year was so hard to predict. I've spoken to so many companies that just said projections were just impossible. So they're just kind of resigned and hoping for the best. We're a ray of sunshine today. Exactly. Happy New Year. Nothing says holiday show like a rock rolling down the hill resignation.

30:35I mean, we are a jolly bunch. And it's going to get even more rosy as we get into the big story. I have to go now. Thank you. Yes. Exactly. Exactly. Warren wants to leave already. He's just too bummed out by where the show's gone, and we're only a few minutes in. Next up, we're going to talk about housing, and it's not going to get any better because it was another frustrating year for real estate with buyers and sellers locked in a stalemate. Fred, I'm wondering, can we look back and talk about how we got here? A producer on the show, Caroline Burke, has lined up all these facts for us about how bad it was.

31:12It's hard to pick one. I'm just going to say that this year is on track to have the slowest housing market in three decades with the projected 4 million home sales, according to the National Association of Realtors. Very bad numbers. I think by now most listeners are familiar with the cause of it. I think it's interesting. One of the assumptions at the beginning of the year, I talked to a lot of people, was that, okay, when the Fed actually starts cutting interest rates, the fight against inflation is won. We're going to see mortgage rates go down. We're going to see the housing market open up.

31:40I'm going to open up a bunch of showrooms and business is going to be great again. None of that really happened. The Fed did cut interest rates. It didn't really have the impact on mortgages we thought it would. And people are still very stubbornly sticking in their homes. I think what this year has really taught us is that the housing market is so much more psychological than anything else. I think at this point now, everyone is just waiting for people to get used to the fact that mortgages are more expensive than they were in the sort of pre-COVID era. Warren, thinking about the housing market and how it's been affecting business, anything you want to add there?

32:15Any perspective? Well, I hate to sprinkle in some good news on this cheerful session. Please, we welcome that. I think there's an element of this that is positive for the home furnishings business. And that is that consumers are sitting on a boatload of equity in their homes. So existing homeowners, the value of those homes is really skyrocketed. And so just like in the mid 2005, 2006 range, there's a lot of money that homeowners can pull out of their homes and spend on fixing them up, particularly if they think they're going to be there for a while. So I think that's the silver lining to next year is that the remodeling, redecorating, refurbishing market, not necessarily tied in to home construction or moves, is going to be a real positive.

33:14And to me, that's where people should be looking. If I'm in this business, that's where I'm focusing my efforts is on existing homeowners who want to work on their homes. I just got back from Charlotte last week and I will say, you know, I was sitting at dinner with a couple designers and I said, you know, like has business picked up for you guys a little bit? I kind of came in with this angle of like, you know, the phone stopped ringing for a while and they looked at me like I was nuts and they said, did it slow down? I've got more renovation projects than I know what to do with. I think there is, you know, to Warren's point, there is opportunity.

33:48There is sort of a regionality to this too. There are certainly some markets where everybody is already kind of investing in redoing that home or where people are still sort of moving in. Yeah, I'm wondering if any of you sense that there's been such a dramatic pickup in asset prices. So if your money is invested in the markets, I sense a lot of people are feeling pretty optimistic from that perspective going into next year. And I wonder if that also is going to be a big push for the home industry, separate and apart from whether or not people move out of their homes in a meaningful way. If you're tied into the financial markets, this is a great year for Wall Street.

34:33And there are some real returns there. So to your point, Dennis, absolutely. Fred? I was just going to say, like, I thought Caitlin was absolutely right. It's really regional. All real estate and home stuff is. There are some markets where people are having their best year ever. And it's also it depends on where you are, like in the sort of various tiers of the market, like the very high end is basically always going to be OK. It's fine. And so a lot of what we're talking about is kind of like the layer underneath that to some degree. I also just want to sprinkle in like a little bit more optimism here, too, to add on to Warren's little drips and drops of that, which is that I think people underestimated how big of a deal the election was going to be.

35:09I heard so many people just saying, like, I'm just going to wait to make any kind of move on anything until after that's over. How many days of rioting will we have? You know, there was a lot of very gallows, humor, darkness around that. And I think that now that it's over, no matter how you feel about the result, there's a sense of like, OK, on to the next. And I think that will unlock things in all areas of business, including the housing market. Well, in terms of just designers that I talked to who did say that the phone had stopped ringing, who really did shape my perspective on, you know, where business had slowed down, a good chunk of them said that, you know, by mid-November, the phone was ringing again.

35:43You know, it's starting to pick up again. I think Fred's right to his point. You know, it was really a wait and see game. And I think people are feeling good and ready to spend some money on their house again. There we go. Well, say, when all of us touched down in High Point this October, did you immediately get sort of barraged with political advertising? If you just think about how that makes you freeze for a moment, no matter what your opinions are on kind of those incoming text messages, TV ads, billboards, all of it, I think there is sort of a paralysis around a lot of that messaging that just tells you, you know, the world's uncertain.

36:16You know, we don't know how it's going to fall apart. And you can kind of get to the end of that messaging and say, okay, I have an answer. Like, the coast is clear. I'm good to move forward. And that's such a great point too, Caitlin, because to your point, so much of that advertising is so negative and the world is falling apart and this guy's horrible. Why would you invest in that world on either side? Exactly. So, I mean, I think just the fact that all of that has gone off of our phones and our TV screens is an enormous relief. Now we're getting Christmas shopping ads. How lovely. I personally miss getting texts from Kamala Harris every day.

36:47I don't know about you guys. Well, I'm sure she's still thinking of you, Fred. And let's not underestimate the value of revenge spending. You know, I think people who were on the losing side are saying, the hell with this. I'm going to go out and make myself feel good and buy a new credenza. So that's a piece of it. Which is always a winning formula, I find. You need to pick me up, buy a new credenza. Yeah, absolutely. That's a winner. I'm going to move on a little bit, Warren, but come back to you and talk about home retailers and some of the struggles that they've had. A number of bankruptcies, shutdowns, cost-cutting measures hit the industry this year, making it clear that it was a challenging time for home retailers.

37:32Let's talk about some of them, Warren. Well, I think this was a year where anybody who ran a home furnishings retailing business said, gee, I wish I'd listened to my mother and become a dentist because there were a lot of casualties this year. You know, you think about cons and badcock and American Freight. I mean, those guys are gone. Big Lots is going from 1 ,800 stores to 1 ,000 stores. LL Flooring is going to go from 400 to 200 and go back to the charming name of Lumber Liquidators. Lumber Liquidators? Yeah. Yes. Emphasis on the liquidating. Yes. And there's a bunch of other guys, smaller regional guys, OKA, the British guys who came in here.

38:22And I never figured out if they were OKA or OKA. OKA, I think. You know, and whatever it was, it wasn't okay. That's for sure. So they're gone. A lot of casualties this year. I think the best thing we can say about 25 is that most of the teetering businesses have already teetered. And I think we'll see less of it in 25 than we saw in 24. Hopefully so. Fred, anything you want to add in there? Well, I mean, I think it's interesting because Warren was talking about a lot of the big chains, but you also saw this kind of like slow drip, drip, drip death of these like real longstanding mom and pop furniture stores.

39:06I wrote an article about in the spring about, you know, I'm talking about the store that's been there for 92 years and is 5000 square foot showroom and has a lot of high point brands. a lot of those kinds of stores are just going away. It's either because the next generation doesn't want to take over or they don't have enough margins to launch an influencer campaign or whatever it is. That's an increasingly tough business. And I think that model just is sort of disappearing and it's changing the industry because a lot of the people who supply those kinds of stores are thinking, well, who am I going to sell to next?

39:36Retails and such flux. I need to go to designers. How do I do that? So I do think this is, as Warren was saying, a year that like bad economic times caught up with a lot of names, both big and small. And on the supplier side, it changes the equation for a lot of these big companies that show at High Point. No, I agree. And I'm curious, Warren, to get your thoughts. We were talking on an earlier show about whether, because we've been talking about so many of these big retailers going away, and for many of these High Point companies and other companies that sell to some of those big locations, is this going to move them to launch a meaningful e-commerce presence in some way, or have to look at other channels to replace that?

40:16Even when we talk about high point and so many designers versus the traditional retailers, what do you think comes out of that change, Warren? Well, any business, whether it's a supplier or retail, that's not selling online direct-to-consumer is out of their minds. I mean, why would they want to walk away from easily 15%, but as much as 20 % of the business out there. Anybody that's doing this, you know, when I talked to one guy who said, you know, we struggle with our online business, so we're not doing it. And they're crazy because you got to do this, you know, it's the way it goes. So I'm not sure I'm answering your question, Dennis, but...

41:00Well, no, I mean, I remember you got so heated, I believe it was when HomeGoods announced that they were coming off of e-commerce and you just thought that was ridiculous. I'm just so curious if finally so many of these companies that have been reluctant for various reasons to really invest in e-commerce in a meaningful way are just going to be forced to because the shift of the retail landscape is so dramatic that they have to do something. I think kind of separate from sort of the traditional furniture category, I know we had two other big failures this year that we talked a lot about at Business of Home.

41:33We said goodbye to Banana Republic Home. We barely knew it. Perch also kind of catastrophically collapsed on itself at the beginning of the year. I think it's interesting to see sort of outside of the very traditional furniture retailing category, there were challenges in those corners of the business for very different reasons as well. Yeah, no. And I think you spoke pretty sharply about Banana Republic Home when it first came out, Caitlin. I don't think they blame you in any way, but it was - We didn't air a lot of that, remember? You were quite opinionated about it and you made the right call.

42:07But yeah, the timing wasn't right. Right? I mean, I think the timing wasn't right. I do also think there aren't that many great examples of brands that have moved from the fashion category into the furniture category in the way that they were trying to do. As much as I think this industry loves to look to fashion as sort of a guidepost or for inspiration, I think this was a really good example to say, yes, the timing wasn't right, but also maybe that's not the right play. And that you have to build, you know, a furnishings brand, a home brand, and not piggyback it, you know, on top of your ready to wear line.

42:43Well, it's a tough transition to make from fashion to home. And I think everyone thinks it looks easy, but... It looks easy. I think this, you know, I hope that this can be used as a case study for like, you know, this isn't the slam dunk that it looks like maybe on paper. Another big issue this year was consolidation. So in the home industry, there were a bunch of acquisitions, including some that we didn't see coming, some we had a sense were going to happen. But I feel like the news from Tebow acquiring Rosemary Hallgarten and some others. Fred, what stuck out to you as some of the big consolidation stories this past year?

43:22I think there were like two different ways that people were consolidating this year. One of them was just simply brands that were really struggling got bought by Havenly. That was more or less like a big through line of the story. I mean, Havenly this year alone acquired Citizenry, St. Frank and Burrow. I mean, it feels like it's more than that because they've been doing this a lot over the past few years. So that in itself was kind of a major story. And I think that's kind of like downstream of all the struggles that the industry has been having is when you're kicking to get by, when you're kind of on the edge of can we make another five years, suddenly selling makes a lot more sense.

43:58and Havenly, Lee Mayer, the CEO there, has put together a model that allows her to finance these deals in creative ways. And she's putting together quite a sizable company. And I do think that if anyone was doubting her ability to put something together, this year was, I think, the year that they were approved wrong. Now, you may disagree with her strategy in the long term or feel a certain kind of way about e-design in general, but there's no doubt that she's making moves and putting something real together. What do you guys think? Yeah, no question. I mean, And it was, as you say, I thought it was even more deals than that.

44:30And because I just felt like we were talking about it throughout the year. And I don't know, we'll have to reach out to her to see if there's maybe one more that she wants to get in under the wire in 2024. But it was interesting how many people we spoke to, whether it was Satya Tiwari, we spoke to him about Mitchell Gold, who mentioned he had looked at any number of other deals. And it was clear that whether it was the Stumps or others who had lots of deals to offer and to talk about, people who had any kind of meaningful money to spend on acquisitions were looking at a lot of deals. There was a lot out there, many of which didn't end up working out for one reason or another.

45:14But what were you going to say, Caitlin? I think one of the interesting things too, you know, Havenly bought three things this year. But when you talk to Lee about the volume of opportunities crossing her desk, I think that's also pretty telling, you know, to Fred's point that, you know, there are all these brands sort of looking for an exit, looking for a cash infusion, you know, the number of people who were, you know, getting pitched or pitching themselves to Havenly to say like, pick me, pick me. really tells you about where we are and also about all of these, to generalize, DTC brands that are kind of coming to a certain age, that are doing fine or doing middlingly okay, and that are maybe beloved, have great product, could have all these incredible selling points and just haven't quite gotten the traction they need to fly solo for the future.

46:00I think it's shocking. I think it's interesting. And I do think that's actually going to continue to shake out in the year to come, that specific category of brands to sort of flounder or find a new home. When we look at perhaps the biggest deal that we wrote about this year, which just happened recently, was here we were talking about Cravett acquiring Caroline Cecil and talking about them wanting to roll up some boutique brands. And then suddenly they end up being acquired themselves by Dunes Point Capital and taking a majority stake there, certainly with the speculation that perhaps more deals could come from that.

46:36What do you think, Caitlin? Taking a couple of steps back, I think one of the most interesting things about that deal is what it says about what it takes to succeed as a trade brand in today's marketplace. If a brand like Kravit that is stable, that seems just healthy and has a solid foundation, is looking for this kind of acquisition to achieve some of that operational improvement, technological improvement, you know, to move the needle a little bit in terms of meaningful growth. I think that says a lot about the kind of capital that you need to be successful in the current marketplace. I mean, I think that tells us more deals like this are coming, more acquisitions like this are coming.

47:14And maybe, you know, that like slow and steady movement that a lot of trade brands have really typically relied on to just kind of like improve a little bit year over year, maybe doesn't cut it anymore. That is very much a hypothesis. That is just a guess. But I do think, you know. No, I think that's absolutely right. I think that's. There's so many of the things that these brands are struggling with, too, are just expensive problems. A lot of the tech stuff, the logistical stuff, like barcoding every single thing you own and knowing where it is at any time moving through a factory floor. All of this stuff that is hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of dollars.

47:50Oh, yeah. An agonizing amount of time and energy and effort, one, it requires a lot of cash, but it also maybe requires some operational expertise that you can kind of let go a little bit and really focus on your core area of expertise. And I can see that being really appealing to some of the industry brands of a certain size. Yeah, no, no, I think that's such a great point. And whether you believe that it's a combination of the estate planning and the family planning, the Kravitz family, I mean, no doubt that was an important component. I mean, I've often thought just about the possibilities with so many of the acquisitions that they've already made, be it Dongia or Brunchwig or some of these brands that if they really had not unlimited resources, but a significant infusion, what could be done to bring those brands to life?

48:39And so maximize the value of what they already have already. And then again, if they're looking to make more acquisitions in the future to have that strong footing. And never underestimate the greed of private equity firms. Well, I know you're a fan, Warren. Yes, yes. I know you're part-time private equity spokesperson. Fred, did you have some thoughts? Well, I just wanted to second what Caitlin said and say that I'm sure a lot of these trade brands are looking at, I'm going to say at RH and going like, okay, they just had a party for a 90 ,000 square foot showroom where all these celebrities showed up.

49:11And how can we compete with that without outside capital coming in? And I also think that a lot of the brands are looking at like, well, next year's might be sort of turbulent with tariffs. If you do any importing, it takes a lot of capital to kind of roll with the changes that that may require in your business. So I do think a lot of people are going to look at the Cravit deal, whatever the motivation was, and go like, OK, we need to do that. And I guess my question for you guys is, how is that going to change things for designers if there's a lot of consolidation in the trade? What does that mean on the individual firm level, do you guys think?

49:41I mean, I think at an existential level, you know, to continue bashing private equity, you know, you saw so many design firms get burned by the intrusion of private equity into companies in the last year, year and a half. And, you know, when you're on, you know, like designer Facebook groups or talking to designers about where they source and shop, a lot of people are actually saying like, oh, we need a list of companies that are private equity backed and we're not going to shop there. And I think that's sort of a miss because there are a lot of very stable, healthy private equity backed companies.

50:07No, I mean, I'm not saying that that's a good idea. I'm saying that that sentiment is there. And I think Kravitz was very careful to say like, hey, the same people who ran this business and that you ordered from yesterday are still here and are still going to be here. I mean, that was a very important piece, I think, of their messaging to say this is still a family run company. And I do think that, you know, if we see that sort of private equity roll up that Fred is predicting, hypothesizing, you know. We both were. I think that, yeah. Why am I alone on this now? I don't know. You can take that.

50:41No, but I think if we do see that, I think one of the things brands will have to be very careful about is how they talk about what that means for their day-to-day operations and really sort of make sure that the fear component of, you know, this bank might pull the rug out from under us tomorrow and you'll be in the lurch isn't actually what's about to happen in their business. And you do have to make a distinction between good, healthy companies like Cravit that have been bought and some of the more distressed fire sale guys, and I'll be delicate and not mention any names, that were basket cases that were picked up on the bargain bin.

51:21So there is a difference. And I think the trade needs to recognize that and understand that there are good deals and there are bad deals, but there are good deals. One of the things we talked about a lot this past year was the dupes. The debate over design copycats hit the mainstream this year, in part due to a new price comparison platform that we've talked about quite a bit on the show, but also thanks to a lawsuit involving a certain A-lister. Can we talk about Kim Kardashian, anyone? Warren, what's your take? Not if I'm here, please. I know this gets you anxious, Warren. Chief Kardashian correspondent, Warren Schoelberg.

52:03Yes, yes. Yeah, I mean, I think like dupes were kind of in the air this year for both for this lawsuit involving Kim Kardashian, who was accused of knocking off a Donald Judd table and because of the launch of dupe.com, as we've been talking about. I actually think a lot of this dupe talk is kind of downstream of just the industry struggles in general. I think people have not been spending as much on their home. And when they are spending, they want the absolute lowest price. I think that, you know, the rise for the desire of dupes is sort of a coming together of like the rise of design culture.

52:33People want this stuff, but they're more motivated to get it at a lower price than ever before. So I think dupes are a big part of the design conversation right now. And I don't see that changing in 2025. Yeah, I'm just shocked that people are knocking each other off. This is unprecedented. Never happened before. I had a really interesting conversation with a couple industry experts a couple days ago. It was sponsored in part by Be Original Americas. And we were talking about dupes and how you protect originality, but also what role businesses have in combating dupes in terms of making sure good design is at every price point in the marketplace or designing product and then messaging it differently to really create that resonance, that connection.

53:19John Edelman at Heller made a really interesting point that you could argue that sustainability is one of the most important things to a lot of these shoppers who are buying dupes. Gen Z really cares about the planet, really seems interested in dupe.com. And he said, these are people who won't use a plastic water bottle, but they'll buy a knockoff light. How do we talk about sustainability and longevity in the same sentence and really create a culture that taps into what some of these young people care about, kind of separate from price point? Adam Rolston, the amazing architect, was there, and he was talking about putting up kind of guardrails in his studio practice to prevent dupes and how hard it is sort of even internally to safeguard against accidentally not using, you know, an original design.

54:06And I just thought that, you know, his take on sort of the personal responsibility of saying, you know, no, we've committed to this. This is important to us. But at every step of our design process, there has to be really a safeguard to make sure we understand where this idea came from and why. That felt really powerful to me as sort of an industry takeaway separate from like TikTok outrage. Yeah, I agree, Caitlin. But I do think that like TikTok outrage actually can help. I think Kim Kardashian and the Donald Judd thing, like as silly as it was in a lot of ways, it kind of drew people's attention to it.

54:37And I think that like it's really tough with stuff like dupes because first of all, it's difficult to even define what it is. In some cases, you have a piece that's sort of like an homage. In other cases, it's a very explicit copy. So that's difficult. Well, I think the only thing that really solves it is like a cultural shift towards people really understanding what an original piece of design is. And that takes time. It honestly does take celebrities. I know we shouldn't rely on Kim Kardashian to save the design industry, but I do think even the fact that she was interested in having an original Donald Trump, even if it wasn't, is sort of an interesting point.

55:09And so I think this is sort of a slow change that will rise and fall with cultural tides and is not something that can be fixed overnight. But I do think that, you know, dupes are here for the time being and they will come up again in the near future. Next up, let's talk about some changes in the media in 2024. There were several shakeups in the design media world with some new owners and new leaders. And starting off with Jill Cohen joining Lux in early January, that was a surprise announcement. Yes? Well, I mean, I think Jill Cohen, you know, beloved book design editor is a good fit. I think that this was maybe a little bit of just Pamela Jacarino, the former editor-in-chief of Luxon, having been in the role for a long time.

55:52And maybe it was more about that than any broader media trend. And I'm certainly excited to see what Jill's changes look like as they roll out over the next year. But I do think just more broadly, this is a time of change and transition and maybe some rock and rolliness in design media as much as it is in the broader design industry. I don't feel like there were that many media stories that felt like, oh, my gosh, this is great. This is really doing wonderful. And we're going gangbusters right now. So I think people are looking for changes, looking to shake things up a little bit in the media.

56:26And I don't know that that was the specific reason behind this move. But I think it's part and parcel of a lot of things that went on in the design media in general. You know, a lot of the shelter magazines, for better or worse, really shifted their strategy to adapt to digital. all. And with a lot of the changes that have happened on the internet, especially with Google in the last year, nobody was really rewarded for going all in the way that they did. That means changes in the year. That means that we are seeing layoffs at Condé Nast and Hearst. We're seeing kind of a changing of the guard.

56:56I think strategies are going to have to start to change. Budgets are still getting smaller. I'm looking for a bright spot. Okay, here, I got a bright spot. I mean, there's opportunity in that, certainly. But I don't think it's quite obvious yet what it is. Yeah, I mean, I think for me, like my my one bright spot is stuff like Substack. And I know I like consistently talk about Substack every week on the Thursday show. But I do think it's a cool example of how, while traditional media is suffering, that creates, you know, room for new voices to pop up. Technology like Substack allows you to like, you know, spin up a newsletter or build an audience and monetize it like very quickly.

57:34And, you know, I and Kelly Wurstler joined Substack just a few weeks ago. So I think that is an area that actually is showing some movement and positivity. And I do think that, like, there's nothing great happening in traditional media, but an independent do-it-yourself, kick-up-your-own-fuss media, I think there is actual movement. I think that's a great point. I also think, actually, you're exactly right. Elizabeth Rawls purchasing, you know, Atlanta Homes and Lifestyles and starting her own media company is another great example of how, you know, being independent, having a connection to your audience, and really focusing your efforts on a smaller group of people that you are deeply connected to.

58:12I think that in a lot of ways is Substack ricocheting back its influence into traditional media. I think that's a really exciting opportunity. I think that's a spot to watch as well. As we wrap up the show, it's time to talk about predictions, what we think might happen in 2025, what we might be talking about in the new year. Caitlin, do you want to kick us off? Big picture, we'll see kind of continued highs and lows. You know, I think a lot of the market forces that we're talking about that have been disruptive this year don't stop just because we're counting down, dropping a ball and starting a new year.

58:44I think a lot of this really does continue. I think the other biggest thing to keep an eye on is the new political climate. You know, a lot of the predictions or pronouncements that are coming out of the early days of the Trump administration have a lot of impacts on the furniture industry, whether it's immigration or tariffs, and just how we make the parts, pieces, and actual items, and then transport them and sell them in this industry. You know, I think all of that is up for some potentially seismic changes. So I think that's going to be one of the biggest things to watch this year and just how those changes start to make their way through the different sectors of the home furnishings category.

59:22Okay. Warren, what do you think? Well, there's a saying that I don't really know who said it, but I'm going to take credit for it because I don't see anybody else who said it. Why not? Which is that the worst is over, but the best has long since come and gone. And so I think 25 is going to be better than 24 on a whole lot of levels. But anybody thinking that this is a return to boom times is just being incredibly unrealistic. realistic. Think back before the pandemic, and there were people very happy with tiny little bursts of growth. And so manage your expectations in 25, and I think you'll be okay.

1:00:06I was having that conversation with someone just last night, Warren, who said, you got to let go of those COVID years and never coming back and stop trying to get back to that level of growth. So I think there's a lot of people who feel the same way. Fred, what about you? Caitlin, I got to say, I agree with you that like political stuff is going to be big, but I am not going to make any predictions on what happens. I feel like in the last three weeks alone, the amounts of tariffs and where they're coming from has changed already. But yeah. OK, my prediction is that everyone on this call right now is going to have a sub stack in six months.

1:00:35So that's one way to bring it back in. But my real prediction, and I'm definitely going to be eating crow in a year, is that how is this going to go public next year? I really. But I think he's at it again. One more year. Wall Street has definitely been booming. I think there's a lot of enthusiasm around all the, if nothing else, the markets, financials are going to go really well. I think that's going to fund or fuel a lot of enthusiasm for, for IPOs next year. And I think Houzz has been holding on as long as it can. I think Serena Lilly has been holding on. I think these companies are going to start to go public next year and we'll, we'll, we'll see if I'm right, but that's my, my bold, bold prediction.

1:01:10Dennis, what about you? So I'm also going to go out on a limb here, Fred, because I do think there's been a lot of optimism in the financial markets. And I think one of the things we're going to be talking about a lot more and probably writing about is Bitcoin. The number of people who are joining the administration who are very pro Bitcoin, who are large holders of Bitcoin. There's already so much news coming out about a lot of the home builders are getting more and more people who are showing up with a bunch of Bitcoin and they want to buy a house. So I think Bitcoin is going to play a major role in some of the euphoria and excitement.

1:01:45It's up more than 140 % this year and hitting new highs on the regular. So I think that's going to be a big story in the coming year. Does that mean we have to pretend we know what NFTs are now? I did that for a whole year, Dennis. Can't go back. Well, I mean, I don't know if we even need them anymore. And I don't know if all the conversation was always about the blockchain, but I think this is going to be meaningful this time around. And And I do think there's a lot of money that's been made. So it's going to show up in a meaningful way. Well, it's been wonderful to spend time with all of you.

1:02:19I think we ended up on a little bit more of an upbeat note than we began. So that's a good sign. And maybe that's a hopeful sign for 2025. But I wish you all a wonderful holiday if I don't see you before then. And I thank you so much for joining us. Thank you, Dennis. Thanks. Joy to the world. Thanks, Dennis. It was a pleasure. Happy holidays.

1:02:45And we're back. We're getting to the end of the show here. But before we go, we'd like to take a second to highlight anything going on in the industry that might have caught our eye. Fred, I know what you're going to talk about. Go for it. Well, listeners will have just heard me talk about Substack on our end of year recap with fellow BOH editors. I'm going to talk about Substack one more time because this week, two very important people joined the newsletter platform. economist Paul Crookman and interior designer Stephanie Sabi. And guess which one of them I'm following? Stephanie Sabi. And they have so much in common, those two, I find, don't you?

1:03:20I love watching Paul's videos from the insider car all the time. Yeah, that's great. Well, both of them are not afraid to speak their mind. So I think Substack is a perfect platform for them. I'm already loving Stephanie's newsletters. I recommend subscribing. It's just, I don't know, I'm just really encouraged to see a lot of designers popping up. Who knows if it'll last, but I just, I think it's a great place to read about design. So I'm certainly reading there. And check out Stephanie and all the other designers who I'm sure will be joining in the not too distant future once they find out Paul's on there.

1:03:49Dennis, what got your eye this week? Well, I think it's wonderful the way you've been encouraging everyone to, as Stephanie pointed out, perhaps use a very different muscle, which is that writing muscle that I think we're going to get to hear from perhaps a lot of people in the design community in a very different way. So I am looking forward to that in 2025. I'm looking forward to so much in 2025, but I wanted to take a moment because, as you said, at the top of the show, this is our last show of the year, Fred. And I know, I know, getting a little emotional here. But no, I really did. All joking aside, it is our last show.

1:04:28And I wanted to just take a moment to thank everyone for listening. I wanted to thank everyone for writing in and sharing and for the kind reviews. I know you always like to drop the subtle hint of, oh, yes, reviews on Apple Podcasts. We should encourage people to do that. So I thank people who have done that and those that haven't. Hey, there's still time before the year's over. But really, it's made it so fun this year to get to hear from so many people. Fred and I got to meet so many of you at High Point, and we loved that. We hope we'll get to do more of that. But really, a great big thank you to this community for all that you have shared with us in the past year.

1:05:08All right. That's all the time we have today. Thanks so much for listening. If you want to keep up with the latest news, browse job listings, or take a workshop, visit us online at businessofhome.com. If you want to get in touch with the show, write to us at podcast at businessofhome.com. This episode was produced by Fred Nikolaus and Caroline Burke and edited by Fraser McCullough. I'm Dennis Scully have a great weekend and we'll be back with you on Monday