The Thursday Show: Peter Dunham on the LA wildfires and what comes next. Plus: Material Bank debuts its long-rumored consumer site

24:09I think a lot of people have tried to walk back the fear of tariffs, but it's clear that the administration feels as if it's been very out in front with its language. And so they have to put something meaningful in place. And China certainly seems to be one of the main targets, perhaps Mexico and Canada as well. That heat has certainly gotten hotter language-wise. So, I mean, as you say, I would not be at all surprised. And I think the bond market is telling you that, too, that it wouldn't be surprised if meaningful tariffs are put in place with the outcome being higher prices. Yeah, exactly. Higher prices, inflation going up, the Fed isn't going to cut rates anymore, mortgages are going to stay high.

24:58So, I mean, what does it mean for designers in the broader industry that we are, you know, we're not going back under 6 % anytime soon? That was the hope. It's not going to happen. What do you think that's going to matter for our corner of the world? Well, I think there was the perception, and interestingly, our guest on the show, Peter Dunham, one of his predictions was that people just weren't going to want to wait any longer. That they were going to move forward, that they were going to buy or sell a home because enough was enough. They'd waited long enough. And I think, unfortunately, with the creep up in mortgage rates, I think it definitely is dampening some of the hopes that we were going to see a pickup in the spring in the housing market.

25:43We've seen a lot of mortgage application numbers come down, cool off. And I think for designers, it means that it's not yet the all clear for just a lot of movement in the housing market, which is a big driver for their business. And then, of course, we throw in the uncertainty in what's going to come out of the situation in L.A. and that market, which was already facing great challenges on the real estate front. And I think it's going to be even more challenging. Yeah, you know, it's interesting. I kind of have a slightly more optimistic take on this news. Not that I think that everything you just said is obviously right.

26:22But as we've talked about, stocks are crazy high. All the finance guys are about to get their bonuses or they already got their bonuses off a record year. I think some of that money is going to trickle down to the design industry. I think the 1 % is obviously more immune from shifts in mortgage rates than everybody else. I feel like the kind of optimism, I know it can turn quickly, but I do feel like a lot of people have told me like, yeah, ever since the election is over, however you felt about it, people are just want, they want to move on and they're going to do the project. They're just going to get it started.

26:53So I don't feel like these numbers necessarily make me turn that optimism off. I guess what kind of gives me pause more is for brands in our industry, because any one designer can have the best year of their entire career during a weirdly down housing market. But if you sell at all levels of the market, you're much more vulnerable to this stuff. And I think that's kind of what's driving all these deconsolidations, acquisitions, is people are trying to get stronger in the face of what may be a longer downturn. I feel like last week we were talking about, oh, there's been already like 10 acquisitions already.

27:25It's like there's been 20 acquisitions since then, and we may see even more pick up. So I kind of feel like Like in a way, none of this makes me fret for designers as much as it does make me think brands are going to have to buckle up a little bit more. But I don't know. What do you think of that? Well, I mean, I think that's certainly a good argument. And I certainly agree with you that we've seen a great many announcements about deals. And I think we're going to see a lot more of that in the coming months. There's a little question about that. I think there's a great deal of hope that it's just going to be easier to do a deal in the near future.

27:59with whoever with whoever yes for better for worse those deals are going to be possible so i mean yes i and and listen i agree with you i mean i think interestingly when you look at the very high end and actually i i saw that leonard steinberg uh the the real estate agent very high-end real estate agent uh made note of uh the the delta airline earnings that came out recently and i i noticed them as well. You saw very strong numbers coming out of Delta Airlines. And the greatest strength is in their first class section where business is really booming and people are willing to pay a lot more to travel.

28:39And I think that's the very same customer that these designers are servicing. So, I mean, I think all of the indications on the high end are that people have plenty of money to spend and they are eager to spend it. And I think the perception is that they are going to be even more eager to spend it after January 20th is what we hear a lot. I do think that unfortunately, the challenge of being in the third year of a bull market is often a little dicey. And these interest rates are just a cause for concern, particularly for many smaller companies in our industry that have to borrow money. They're borrowing money at a much higher rate, and that will no doubt have an impact on them.

29:18So that's, I think your point about some of the companies in our industry is very well taken. I would not at all worry about the 1 % they're doing just fine. Suzanne Tucker, once again. Once again, Suzanne Tucker, nothing to worry about. The big winner of this podcast. Absolutely. Next up, another big winner, perhaps, robots. CES, the annual consumer technology The extravaganza just wrapped over the weekend. The innovations on display included plenty of smart home technology, as well as no small number of robots. Fred, what was your favorite? I'm going to try not to butcher this pronunciation here.

29:59Nekojita Fufu was my favorite robot, a quote unquote, tiny minimalistic cat robot that does nothing more than blow air to cool down hot food and drinks. It's a little robot you put on the edge of your steaming mug of Earl Grey. I would pay good money for that. Did you have a favorite robot from CES, Ennis? Well, I love that the conversation was all about robots. And I feel like I get that there were a lot of incredibly robotic vacuums that are terribly efficient. I still don't have one, but I'm told that there's never been a better time to own one. I was intrigued by the spoon that uses a little jolt of electricity to somehow make your food taste like it has more salt in it without it actually having salt in it.

30:45So I'm all for technology helping you to lower your salt intake by fooling you. But I did think that it was interesting that a lot of people were talking at CES about the fact that AI has been such a hot topic, but maybe is starting to run out of steam. But wait, what if we combine AI and robots, which I think science fiction has pretty much told us will be the end of Western civilization as we know it, but also might be the next innovation in terms of tools. Although I sense on the smart home front, there just wasn't a lot to really get excited about. Yes? Yeah, it's funny. Like a little behind the scenes look.

31:27So every year when CES happens, which is a big consumer show in Las Vegas for all these gadgets, we here on the Business of Home editorial team are like, we should do a story about this. There's a lot of smart home stuff that debuts. And whenever we do a story, it does not do well with our audience. It's interesting. I feel like, you know, smart home technology and interior designers, there's this sort of mutual distrust, maybe, or maybe more distrust coming from the designer side. And I don't feel like anything that debuted at CES this year will really do anything to change that. I mostly saw, like, locks and, as Euphoria mentioned, you know, vacuum robots that can, apparently they have arms now.

32:05There's like a vacuum robot that can sort of pick up dirt and put it in the wastebasket, which I guess I'm in favor of. I don't know if I would pay top dollar for it, but anything that allows me to do less work, I'm very much a fan of. Did you see anything specific, smart home technology that you liked? Or do you agree that nothing that happened at CES will catch the eye of most designers? Well, I mean, there were lots of ways to help your refrigerator door to be a lot more helpful to you, it seemed. Cool. I've always felt it wasn't pulling its weight around the house. My expectations for my refrigerator door are so low that I really am not looking for it to help me.

32:45And I gather that the perception has been that a lot of people have just felt a little unsettled, a little unnerved if, in fact, their refrigerator door got too smart and was keeping track of them or was reporting back on their activities. So I think that it seems that people are kind of cool to that, no pun intended. But what was your sense? Well, yeah, I mean, this kind of ties into this article that came out last month in the Wall Street Journal that we didn't talk about at the time, but I really loved, which was talking about why the promise of smart appliances just doesn't seem to have really delivered.

33:22I think all these really interesting numbers from the report saying that it was like only half of the buyers of these appliances actually keep them connected to the Internet. And who knows how many people actually use the Internet connected features. I think there was so much hype around this idea of the Internet of things. And, you know, your dishwasher is going to talk to your cat litter dispenser is going to talk to your phone. And most of it hasn't really come to pass. And, you know, it's just it's interesting. I always sort of felt like, you know, interior designers don't really like technology, maybe just culturally and maybe because there's no margin in it.

33:52You don't make a lot of money selling a robot vacuum. But I'm starting to wonder whether it's just like actual homeowners, like people don't really want this stuff. You know, most of the utility of it is pretty minimal. And as the article pointed out, a lot of all this like internet connectivity is really more for the company making the washer dryer so that they can understand like, okay, this is how they use it. That'll help us develop the next product. It's really more for them than it is for us a lot of the time, right? Exactly. And it seemed in talking to a lot of designers, they talked about the fact that so many of their clients just don't want to be tracked and they don't want to be followed around.

34:26And as you say, that seemed to be what was at the heart of so much of the smart. Even by a tiny minimalistic cat that does nothing more than blow air to cool down hot food and drinks. I wouldn't mind being followed around by Neko Jita Fufu. But it always seems to know where you are and that seems unnerving. So I don't know. I mean, I think a lot of people raised privacy issues, which I get, although hilariously those same people seem to be on Instagram 24-7, so I don't know. But I do think that, as you say, there still seems to be a great divide between designers and their clients and the love of technology in homes.

35:06And this year's CES show didn't seem to bring us anywhere closer to feeling that divide. Although I'm excited about the AI robots just coming for all of us very, very soon. Moving on, we've got some sad news to report. Peter West, the co-founder of the San Francisco showroom Hune, has passed away. Peter was a veteran of the Northern California design space, and together with his partner, Jeff Holt, created an institution beloved by San Francisco designers who have been paying heartfelt tribute to him this week. I know he's been in touch with us a great deal in the past. Fred, he will be missed.

35:46Yes, he will be missed. He will be missed by me. I mean, Peter is not someone that I knew particularly well directly, but I emailed with him many, many times. And he was just such a passionate guy about the design industry. You know, he was a very passionate defender of multi-line showrooms and the whole model. You know, every time I would write an article that even had the slightest little bit of critique of the model or questioning of it, he was there to defend it. And he was just such a champion of designers and the design industry. funny, passionate, really, you know, so many designers have been talking about, you know, what a, what a tragic loss this is.

36:22So just, um, you know, wanted to pay, pay our respects and say that, you know, we will, I will certainly miss seeing his name in my inbox. And I know a lot of people will miss him much more than that. So, um, he will very much be missed. Absolutely. And our heart certainly goes out to his partner, Jeff Holt. Uh, we're, we're terribly saddened by this news. All right, that's it for the news, but there's plenty more to check out on businessofhome.com, including advice from Sean Lowe on setting goals for the new year and a roundup of the latest hires in the industry. We'll be back in a minute, but first, a quick break.

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38:09And we're back. I'm joined by Peter Dunham, interior designer, textile designer, and showroom owner. Peter, I'm sorry that it's this unimaginable tragedy that brings us together so early in the year, but I'm delighted to see you nonetheless. Thank you for having me, Dennis. As you know, it's always a pleasure. Well, I appreciate that very much. I don't even honestly know where to begin in all of this. I'm I'm wondering, first of all, I hope that you and all those on your team are okay. And I wonder if you can just share a little bit of what's been going on for you these past few days and all of this.

38:50The team is all good. Thanks for asking. I think we had a couple of days off when it got really bad. We had one day of incredibly poor air quality that was just horrible. So everybody, we shut down and there was a sunset fire. Of course, the shop was really kind of not a good place to reach on La Cienega and West Hollywood. So those are the sort of big direct impacts. On a personal point of view, I think people are very stunned. It's hard to say. I mean, I don't live in the Palisades, nor do I live in Altadena. and the losses are very different because they're two very different communities. Economically, the Palisades obviously is in its way much more diverse luxury area than the others.

39:43The people that the starter house, let's say in the Palisades is probably, I'm going to shoot a number, probably two, three million dollars and it can easily go to 50. In Altadena, the starting price is much lower and in fact more heartbreaking i think when people are displaced there it's going to be a much harder recovery i think what they have in common is they're two spectacularly lovely communities but alta dina is probably the most racially and economically diverse community in LA it was one of the oldest it was started in about the 1880s it started off as a development for rich midwesterners to take the train to Pasadena go up the hill to this kind of Ojai-esque wonderful thing it sort of failed but farms took over and it was at its time the largest wine produced in California.

40:43Citrus did really well there. It was really kind of a pretty affluent, middle-class community, very pretty, easy to reach. And then the 70s hit, it struggled. There was white flight. And the Palisades equally has a very big historical thing. It also was part of a Spanish land grant. So these juicy pieces of real estate that the Spanish carved up and the Mexicans sold off and whatever. And then somebody created a huge studio down there. It was really like this giant precursor to the big studios that's sort of almost a template for the big studios that erupted in, you know, that came up in the valley.

41:30Later, it was called Inceville. The guy was some producer called Ince. So that was the original thing. And then it also burnt down. So it was abandoned after a series of fires, interestingly enough, was bought by a ministry by, I think, I think it was a Methodist, Episcopalian thing, who subdivided it. And originally it was people living in cabins and tents, and it was getaway, not very well connected to the city. Sunset hadn't been paved. Both the communities were kind of far away. And there were these, I mean, there is almost nowhere nicer to live than the Palisades. It has wonderful climate.

42:12The air is cooler in summer. It doesn't have fog like Santa Monica or Malibu. And it kind of started being like this incredible family community of people, multi-generations. I mean, a lot of my friends who are makers and artists are in Altadena, but a lot of the clients and my other colleagues in the business are in the Palisades. Yeah. I mean, there was this very poignant video. Jennifer Garner was actually talking about the neighborhood feel of the Palisades and how the kids would all play. There was a house that had a gong in front of the house and they would bang the gong and all the children would know it was time to go home for dinner and uh she talked about the little local parade that came through and and as you say that it was just such a a community and and that people knew one another and um and and now all just completely gone well interesting enough she was my first proper client and it was her starter home was in the palisades And I think this community of people in the movie business, once you made it, you moved to the Palisades.

43:29And you're able to interact and network with everybody else in the community. So it's kind of like casual living in LA, but within the industry. I would say more than almost anywhere else. So that sense of community that Jennifer described was, until last week, palpable. I think what's going to happen is that a lot of the people who had houses who are maybe empty nesting out now are probably not going to rebuild. But their kids are probably going to return in 10 years when the community is rebuilt and the trees have grown back up. It's going to take a long time to rebuild. just to clean up these sites are so toxic with lead and with asbestos that the state has to go in first, clean up, and then you can have to get other specialized people to remove all this stuff and take them to special dumps.

44:28And we're talking about like thousands of houses. It's like it feels like this Herculean effort is going to take quite a while. Well, exactly. It seems as if it's going to take just ages for them to even make it safe for people to even think about what the next steps are. All this flame retardant has been dropped on the whole area in an effort to put out the fires, which still are far from being completely contained as we speak on Monday evening. And I feel like so many members of the design community seem to have also been there. And I'm struck by just seeing these stories of designers who have also lost their homes.

45:13And I don't know if you've heard from many in the design community and what they're saying beyond just their shock, as you articulated earlier. Well, I think everyone had to jump somewhere to live, right? So everyone's dispersed. Every hotel's full and people have moved, you know, take every hotel in Palm Springs is full. Every hotel in Orange County is full. You know, I think anyone with a kid or something, just like, okay, we're getting out of town. Yeah. We're going to Phoenix. We're going to lots and lots of people. Went to Palm Springs, anywhere out of the flow of smoke. So the logistics are just like, how can we pick up the pieces just to house ourselves for the time being?

46:00And a lot of people moved in, obviously, with friends or family or rented places. A lot of price gouging with rentals. But, you know, in Altadino, on the other hand, people are probably living in their cars or struggling to find like, you know, a camper van to sleep in or moved in with family. And there I'm hearing stories from one of my co-workers that one of her relatives was starting to get calls about three days after the fire saying, do you want to sell? Do you want to sell? Do you want to sell your property? They're already trying to like scoop up. No, no. I mean, and as you say, I mean, the price gouging and the bad actors just showing up in any number of ways.

46:46And I saw several people in the community posting about, don't sell your plot of land. Don't say yes, right, to those offers. And don't take that first number from the insurance company and all sorts of warnings. Well, thanks for bringing that up. I have no idea. I haven't spoken to anyone. when several of my clients were kind of calling, after calling us and saying, okay, well, the project, can you cancel the furniture? Can you put a hold on everything? And of course, we're working with our vendors to try and return, cancel everything. And people in the store want to return things, custom orders they've made or bought stuff, and what can we do?

47:24Naturally, you try and help whoever you can. But so the insurance trigger, I'm sure it's going to be horrific. because, as we know, the insurance industry is in really bad. The fire catastrophe, as my mother always says, who's English and lives in Paris, and occasionally the Seine rises a little higher in front of her. But really, she said, darling, in America, these natural disasters are just so huge. We can barely understand them. You know, like, if it's an earthquake, it's huge. If it's a hurricane, it's huge. Tornadoes, it's huge. You know, floods, it's huge. So yes, this was a huge event.

48:06So I don't know what it's going to look like. I mean, I'm sure a lot of people are incredibly inadequately insured, if they could at all. Just to put it in perspective, we had a client, bought a house about two years ago. For Santa Barbara, I'm embarrassed to say, it was about$10 million. So it was kind of like maybe a starter house in Montecito kind of thing. And they were way far away from the mountain, away from any of the big danger signs of like, you know, all the boulders coming down the hill that we remember. And they were quoted their fire insurance,$850 ,000 a year. So they said, well, what everyone does.

48:46So what do people do? So everyone self-insures, which is euphemistically for they don't get insurance. They don't take insurance. They decided every 10 years they can rebuild or something. But that's not the luxury for almost everyone. I mean, the Palisades has a lot of younger families who put it together to buy something there, and they're in the network of the industry they want to be part of. They're not gazillionaires either. So I think it's going to be a big shock. It's going to take a while. I mean, first of all, where's the money coming from? Well, I mean, they're already suggesting that this might be the most costly natural disaster in the United States history.

49:28I mean, numbers are already up towards$150 billion, and we don't even know. And as I say, the fires in so many areas are not even contained yet, so impossible to really get an assessment. And as you suggested, many people, it seems, might not want to rebuild, at least initially, or can't for a whole host of reasons. And even if they want to, things were already pretty backed up to begin with. Definitely a huge construction labor shortage. Yes. So I can't imagine how it's going to be possible to find enough plumbers, electricians, framers, et cetera, to make a dent. But amazing enough, America's resilience and energy seems always to surprise me.

50:20And I think it will, and definitely the Palisades will rebuild because it's such a choice place to live. The problem about it is the nicest place to live are closer to nature, whether hills and ravines and things. People love that. It's very romantic and beautiful, but you do take a huge risk. And I don't think going forward they're going to find it easy to get insurance. It's just heartbreaking that it's just going to be years until we can really see what that all is going to look like. And I wonder what that means for the design industry. I wonder what that means for this whole community. I think it's going to take a while, but I think it'll happen quite quickly.

51:05The state's already talking about letting people rebuild as of right what they had, which seems, I mean, slightly lunacy. You've got to start thinking about having fireproof buildings. And you can't rebuild exactly what just burnt down and hope it's not going to happen for another 100 years. So there's probably going to be some, there should be some adjustments to building codes. There were obviously problems getting out of those communities. So that's going to count for something and sprinkling your house from the outside and inside. So there was a guy, I can't remember what his name, an architect in Carpinteria who was known for building fireproof houses.

51:45And so it feels like it's going to be in that direction. If you're going to live in these places that are close to nature, you're going to have to have much more fireproof buildings that sprinkler the exterior while it's happening and all this stuff. So that's going to happen. i definitely can foresee a lot of people not wanting to rebuild i think a lot of people in the business which is already the entertainment business which is already struggling hugely yes and this city you know had covid basically a real estate recession i spoke to a broker yesterday who's a friend said last year was the worst you should ever had you know people would not get to the finish line and i said why should really the interest rates and waiting for the election.

52:30But you already have this recession rid of state, which is a huge business. The movie business is completely restructuring. People are getting paid a whole lot less. Human beings are perishable. If you're a movie star, you are a perishable commodity. You only have 10 or 15, maybe 20 years if you're very lucky. They're going to take whatever work they can. And Netflix doesn't pay what Warner Brothers used to pay. So anyway, the reality is people are not making as much money and it's dispersed. So are a lot of these people in the past is going to think, I'm not going to spend five years struggling.

53:05Am I going to move to Austin, Dallas, Atlanta, Santa Fe? I mean, the list is there. They're waiting for them with lower taxes. I would suspect 25 % to 35 % of people are not going to rebuild. That's a huge number. So that's a, yeah. Okay. I think it's going to have a huge impact in our business because for many of us, that was a very core customer. It wasn't like the Uber customers who live, you know, remember, a big chunk of Malibu burned too on the beach. So, but, you know, it's like those really big, big, big expensive projects that people might say about. They weren't necessarily in the Palisades in big time.

53:50But a lot of us medium-sized firms were doing a lot of jobs in the Palisades. For my store, it was definitely like the core customer. The textile is the same. That community was younger, less formal. So I think more casual, right? Definitely. So I think that it's going to affect my segment of things. We may find people start buying to furnish their temporary housing or whatever they end up in. We'll see. It's very hard to really know. I'm just going to point out the other day, I went to see my vendors. You know, once a week, I go around the vendors to check up on them. And two days after it happened, my upholster said, oh, we've had six projects completely canceled.

54:43The stuff was in production. It was made. i mean we're holding on to stuff they said cancel stop everything the house has burnt down there's nowhere to put it we have another situation with 10 pieces of furniture there that it's got nowhere to go so yeah that's going to be just right now a short-term impact so it's a big blow for the city that felt like it was already struggling to get back on its feet i mean thank god not more people died yes but you know whatever dip in my business selling lampshades compared to coming home and not having a house with any of your family photographs with any of your wards with any of your school photographs with nothing nothing nothing left it was probably for most people all there so you can't really say oh my god my sale's gonna dip but it is a huge blow for the city of los answer this?

55:37Well, as you say, things can happen quickly. I mean, we'll see a new administration is coming into office and hopefully they will step up and take this very seriously. I'm a little bit concerned about some of the language that they've used thus far, but we'll see what happens there. And hopefully the community will get the support that it needs. And as you suggest, we will check in regularly and see how all of this is going. I'm so glad that you and your team are well and safe. And I'm glad to be able to speak with you. And I appreciate you taking the time. Thank you, Dennis.

56:25And we're back. We're getting to the end of the show here. But before we go, we'd like to take a second to highlight anything going on in the industry that might have caught our eye. Fred? Wayfair caught my eye. Apparently Wayfair is quitting Germany, citing weak macroeconomics, leaving the country altogether. I don't think these two items are related, but this comes on the heels of RH saying it wasn't going to renew its leases in Dusseldorf in Munich. Now, they may stay in the country, but this does seem to speak to some kind of divide between the rest of Europe and Germany. I don't know. I've been to Germany many times.

56:56I feel like they like furniture there. I don't get this. What was your read on this? Well, I mean, listen, I think it was an indication of two things. The challenges for Wayfair continue in earnest, and Germany has been a drag for a long time. And with the economy performing as poorly as it is at the moment, it just seemed like it had to happen. And somebody was pressuring them, and finally they had to say, you're right, we give up on Germany for now. And I know that they had been investing there for a long time. And in the case of RH, they never meant to be in Germany. It was a weird real estate deal, right?

57:36Right. They had to take those leases in order to get other leases. And so it's not like they had ever intended to do grand openings in Dusseldorf before they were in downtown London. But it was just the way that that shook out. But it is interesting and a reminder that Germany, unfortunately, that economy is really struggling. And so many brands are looking to see what they do there in the future. It's kind of interesting. It is Europe's largest economy, but it also just doesn't have the same cultural connection to the design industry in America that a lot of other European countries do. I guess there's Heimtechs, and we don't need to talk about any more German stuff.

58:14Let's keep going. What caught your eye this week? Let's move on from Germany to Paris, Fred. That sounds much more romantic and exciting. And that is where I am headed in just a few hours, in fact, after we record this show, heading over for Deco Off and really, in this case, looking forward to seeing a lot of friends, many who have flown in from L.A., including my good friend Gina DeWitt, the president of Needler-Faucher, who is one of the kind souls that puts the American and Paris party together. And Gina was forced to evacuate from her home in L.A. just before leaving for Paris. But despite all of that, was still reaching out to making sure I was coming to the party.

58:59Very kind of her. And I know that everybody is just looking forward to coming together with so many of the people that we haven't gotten to see since all of these terrible developments in L.A. have happened. And so I'm really as excited as I am to see the fabrics and all the introductions. I'm, in this case, more excited to see many of the people that I haven't seen in a long time and just look forward to being with our community there. All right. That's all the time we have today. Thanks so much for listening. If you want to keep up with the latest news, browse job listings, or take a workshop, visit us online at businessofhome.com.

59:35If you want to get in touch with the show, write to us at podcast at businessofhome.com. This episode was produced by Fred Nikolaus and Caroline Burke and edited by Michael Castaneda. I'm Dennis Scully. Have a great weekend, and we'll be back with you on Monday.