CNN Projection: Democrats Will Take Control of House

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0:58Welcome back to CNN Election Night in America. I'm Jake Tapper. We're going to make another projection for you now. CNN can project the Democrats are going to flip a seat in Colorado. Manny Root now has defeated freshman Republican Gabe Evans. This is a district that voted for Biden in 2020 and then voted for Trump in 2024. This is a Democratic pickup. So let us take a look at where Democrats are in their attempt to win back the House. At the beginning of the night, I told you they needed to flip three seats. They have done that. They've now flipped the fourth. So Democrats have already picked up enough seats to win.

1:33Where are they right now, though, in all those outstanding seats? Where are they in the Republican seats that they need to flip? Democrats are leading right now in 59 districts currently represented by Republicans. 58 Republicans leading in four Democratic districts. Let's take a look now at the U.S. Senate. How are Democrats? I told you Democrats had to pick up four Republican seats at the beginning of the night. Then they flipped North Carolina. Roy Cooper, he is now going to be the new senator from North Carolina. So now they only have to do three. Where are Democrats when it comes to flipping Republican Senate seats?

2:08Democrats are currently leading in six Republican seats. Six. How about Republicans in Democratic seats? Republicans are currently leading in one Democratic seat. Dana, let's talk about these. Oh, I'm sorry. I keep doing this. In Nebraska, Independent Dan Osborne is currently leading over incumbent Republican Senator Pete Ricketts. I'm sorry. We're entering a world where independents are increasingly represented by the American people and perhaps in House and Senate. I apologize. I won't do that again. Dan Oresborn currently leading in Nebraska against Republican Senator Pete Ricketts. Dan Abash.

2:44Yes. Where are we in the votes? Like, what's going on here? You're going to start with Ohio? So many votes. I'm going to start with Ohio. Because Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, he's still ahead, but his lead is narrowing. It's 68 ,633 votes. He's at 48.7%. His lead just went up about 1 ,000 votes. John Hughes said the incumbent Republican. Again, this is a special election to fill out J.D. Vance's Senate term, which he left, of course, to be vice president. Forty six point six percent is where the Republican is. Sixty six percent of the vote in. Oh, excuse me, that was Ohio. Now we're going to go to South Carolina because this, just like Ohio, is a red state where the Democrat has been ahead the entire night.

3:30Annie Andrews is ahead right now, 51.1%. Darlene Graham is trailing 46.8%. This would be a seismic event if South Carolina were to go Democrat. We're going to continue to watch that. 86 % of the vote is in. So we're waiting to see what the rest looks like and where those votes are. Maine, this is a Republican seat, of course, held by Susan Collins for three decades. This has been going back and forth all night long. Right now, Troy Jackson is ahead. 659 votes. That's how close it is right now. He's at 50.4 percent. Susan Collins is at 49.6 percent. Again, it is early 12 percent of the vote in.

4:19Now let's go to Texas because James Tallarico is maintaining a very, very big lead. Still over a million votes ahead at 59.1%. Ken Paxton at 39.3%. This is one of those seats, one of those races that Republicans are saying if the preferred candidate of most Republicans, including in Texas, would have stayed here, John Cornyn, the incumbent Republican, and not gotten beaten in the primary by Ken Paxton, who was backed by Donald Trump. Perhaps they would not have been in this situation. 55 % of the vote is in in Texas. Kansas. Kansas, the Democrat Adam Hamilton, who is a pastor of a megachurch in Kansas, he has been ahead since we have started getting these votes in.

5:08He's ahead by more than 126 ,000 votes at 57.7%. The incumbent Roger Marshall, who Republicans have been frankly disappointed with in terms of how he's run this race. He is at 39.8 percent, 57 percent of the vote in. Now let's look at Iowa. This is an open Republican seat. So this is all GOP terrain. The Democrat is ahead. Josh Turek has 72 ,000 votes ahead, 58.6 percent. Ashley Hinson, the Republican who's trying to keep Joni Ernst's seat in GOP territory is at 39%. Only 27 % of the vote is in. Jake, there are so many seats that we are watching that are in GOP territory, including and especially Iowa, which used to be a swing state.

5:59Not as much since Donald Trump has taken office. We're going to see how this ends up. Yeah, he remade the map and now it looks like he's remaking it back. We're minutes away from another top of the hour, which means more votes are heading our way at 10 p.m. Eastern. Polls are going to close in another three states, those states being Montana and Nevada and Utah. And we can now make another projection.

6:24CNN can project that Democrat Rebecca Bennett will win the congressional seat for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District. Unseating Republican Tom Cain Jr. Senior Cain, as you might remember, stayed away from Washington, D.C. for more than 100 days earlier this year. He offered no explanation for his absence. Then he returned to D.C. and said he had been treated for depression. It's a big pickup. And again, they only needed to flip three seats. And now that we know, we can report that they flipped five. Caitlin, how is President Trump taking this news? It feels and seems as of now like a harsh rebuke by the American people against the president.

7:06Well, and he's still in the East Room watching. He's got a lot of his advisers, his cabinet members inside the East Room with him. But, Jake, despite the president telling voters for the last better part of two months to act like he was on the ballot tonight when they went to cast their ballots to get out and vote, the White House is now casting blame on some of the candidates that the president ham picked to run in these races. A White House official just texted me and said President Trump did a better job promoting many of the candidates on the ballot than the candidates did themselves. They said despite what we are seeing playing out in these races right now, where a lot of those handpicked candidates are struggling or have lost in some of these races, they said the mood at the White House is still defiant tonight.

7:47And they added this quote, President Trump was not on the ballot and it's proven that Trump voters show up when he is on the ballot. They said despite this, his resolve against fighting the left is still strong. But, Jake, what we are seeing right now is that the president's handpicked candidates, not John Cornyn, of course, Ken Paxton taking that spot, Michael Watley, Darlene Graham, who he pushed harder than almost anyone in these races, are struggling. And now the White House is trying to pin the blame for their struggles tonight. We'll see if maybe losses on the candidates themselves. I mean, candidate quality.

8:23Candidate quality is is one thing. Donald Trump saying that the candidates that he chose and because he has so much sway in the Republican primary system, the fact that they're not doing well. is kind of remarkable, given the fact that if you go back to Texas, for example, had John Cornyn been the candidate right now, the president wouldn't have had to make that statement about the candidate not doing as well as he was, because John Cornyn, he's been proven to be a very good candidate. But, you know, we always have been hearing from other Republicans on Capitol Hill saying, you know, Mr. President, don't get involved in this primary or don't do this.

9:07And he got involved anyway, because he believed these candidates are better. He didn't like John Cornyn. He could never get over that. And so Ken Paxton ran. But obviously, we're seeing that, you know, the president's political power sometimes only extends to himself and not to the candidates that he has backed. Very much so, Jake. All right. Thanks so much. I'm here at the magic wall with John King. And John, right now in the U.S. Senate, Democrats are currently leading in eight Republican seats, Republicans leading in one Democratic seat. That's with like 1 % of the vote in. This is just like an unbelievable number right now, even though that hasn't been called.

9:40And it's indicative of what we're seeing. It's a huge wow. And, you know, are they going to win all eight? We don't know. But when you're ahead in eight and you need four, your math is pretty good. So that's a wow. When you look at this map now, I want to show you something else I think is even more of a wow. This is the house as it stands right now. OK, we're still waiting for out here. It might be a long time. I'm going to circle this map, circle this part of the map. And I want you at home to focus on the red. Focus on the red. Okay? This is where we are right now. Okay? Turn this off. This is the current house of representatives.

10:14See that red? Here's where we are right now. Look how much more blue appears on this map. The current house? What's happening right now? Blue, blue, blue, blue, blue. No guarantee they're all going to hold up. But that is just a you were talking earlier. What's the right word? Is it a rebuke? Is it repudiation? Is it shellacking? Is it a spanking? I mean, at the moment, this is the collapse of the president's party on live television as you watch it play out again. Doesn't mean they're going to get them all, but they're leading right now in 58 Republican districts. And so and we're still going this way.

10:51And so as you look in on some of those districts again, and they're also leading in some of the districts that were going to be the hardest to get. It's only 40 percent here. We'll see what happens. He's one of only three Republicans elected in a district carried by Kamala Harris. And he is trailing at the moment. He's been a survivor. So I'll wait till that gets up. You're going to have to bring me up with a higher percentage because he's pulled it up before. But again, to see those results is quite stunning. This is your home Commonwealth, right? This freshman won just two years ago. Look at the numbers.

11:22This is a seat here. The Scranton When Mayor Rand, the Democrats got a good candidate here. How much have we talked about Donald Trump picking bad candidates? Democrats in some of these battleground districts had good candidates, and this is one of them. We called it. The Scranton mayor, she's popular. This is rural farmland, and the Democrats have been more competitive in some of these rural places than they have been in a long time. So you just look at the scope of this right now. Again when you go back and forth between where we are, see all this red? Look at the Midwest. And look at the blue now.

11:51Again, they're not all called and lacked up. But at the moment, this is just epic. Can I just can I ask one? Well, there's there are four House races in Pennsylvania, my home, my Commonwealth. They're getting all four. You mentioned three. What about Scott Perry? At the moment, they're getting all four. And that's again, it's only 48 percent. But that's a huge. So the early votes come in first. And, you know, it better than anybody home who doesn't know Scott Perry. Democrats will be doing handstands if they defeat Scott Perry. House Freedom Caucus, very conservative, big Trump ally, huge election denier after 2020, a top Democratic target.

12:26They thought that they might get him last time. They didn't in the presidential year. We'll see if that one holds up. And this is a victory for Josh Shapiro, the governor. They targeted four Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania. At the moment, they're leading in all four. We'll see if the night ends that way, but that's a big deal. Let's look at the Senate race in Nebraska, if we can, for one second, because that's where Dan... Come on out. There you go. That's where you have the independent who has not confirmed which party he would side with if it comes to it. But he's not a Republican and he's running against a Republican.

12:56So maybe he stays as an independent right now. The other two independents in the Senate, Angus King and Bernie Sanders, the caucus with the Democrats. He's running against a Republican. So one would assume he's not going to come to Washington and say, joyously, I want to join the Republicans, especially if they're in the minority. And if he wins this seat, they will be. So as you look at this right now, it's 37 percent. So you're looking again, you're trying to come at this. Whoops, I skipped over because sometimes your collar and your jacket hits. So what are you going for here? This here, Douglas County, is the largest county in the state.

13:25This is where the blue dot is. That's the third House Republican. It's Mike Lawler, Brian Fitzpatrick and Don Bacon is the third one. His district is here. He's retiring. I'll look at the House race in a minute. But this is the largest county. It has the city of Omaha. It's growing. This is the Democratic area. You need to run it up. And that's a good number. 58 percent in Nebraska. It has been a long time, long time since we're going county by county through Nebraska. Trust me. Ben Nelson, I believe, is the last Democratic senator. Somebody can help me if I'm wrong about that. Again, another thing I just I showed this earlier, but for people who might have joined us later, this is what's happening in the Midwest.

14:00This is why the Midwest, the prairie states, the farm states are more in play. You see the orange color means your gas prices went up between 54 and 63 percent. The lighter pink, your gas prices have gone up 63 percent to 73 percent since the start of the Iran war. And if you're purple, your gas prices have gone up more than 73 percent. So think about a farm state. You're driving long distances. If you live like me in a city or close in suburban area, you drive 8, 10, 12 miles a day. These people drive 30, 40, 50, 60 miles a day. They drive diesel pickup trucks. They have diesel tractors and diesel combines.

14:35Gas has gone up. Diesel is six bucks a gallon. It was about 360 when the Iran war started. That is the pain that you see in these places that is putting maps like this in play. And again, that's Nebraska. The Democrat is now 61 percent of the vote in. The Democrat is leading in Kansas with 57 percent. That is Kansas. The same situation when it comes to gas and diesel. Let's just take a peek at Iowa. The Democrat is leading there right now, a lower percentage of the vote. Let's be careful here. But 29 percent, the Democrat is getting 57 percent of the vote. We'll make a quick point about Iowa. You watch this play out here in the governor's race right now.

15:13The governor's race is 62 percent. So you have some people splitting their tickets in Iowa. 62 percent to 38 percent there. 62 percent for the Democratic candidate, only 57 percent there. So in the state of Iowa, not surprising, having been out there and talking to voters of late, You have some ticket splitting going on. A lot of Iowans we talked to on our last trip out there said they want a lot of change. They want to send a message to Trump. They want to send a message to Washington. But they're not sure they want to give the Democrats too much power. So you have a state that has a red history where voters were saying, yes, maybe I'll vote Democrat for Congress.

15:47Maybe I vote Democrat for governor. But maybe I want Ashley Hinson to be in the Senate. However, are there enough of those at the moment? Because clearly she is trailing, Jake. So we'll continue to watch that one play out. But the Midwest, the heartland where diesel prices hurt the most, a lot of change tonight. All right. Hold that thought, John, because we have a big update now on one of the closest watch Senate races and CNN can now make a major projection. And frankly, it's stunning. Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews is going to win the Senate seat in South Carolina, pulling off a shocking upset in a longtime Republican stronghold.

16:21Dr. Andrews is going to defeat Republican Senator Darlene Graham, who was appointed to replace her brother, the late Senator Lindsey Graham, after his death in July. Andrews' victory flips a Republican seat and marks the first time in South Carolina, South Carolina has elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998. Fritz Hollings, I believe. CNN's Diane Gallagher is live at Annie Andrews' campaign headquarters in Charleston, South Carolina. Diane, I have to say, stunning news. Yeah, look, Jane, for the first time this millennium, the state of South Carolina will elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate for the first time ever.

17:03The state of South Carolina will send and elect a woman to the U.S. Senate, as CNN is projecting that Dr. Annie Andrews, a Charleston pediatrician, will beat interim Republican Darlene Graham. Now, look, the mood here in Charleston has been getting more and more excited. Obviously, the message has not gotten to this crowd yet, but they've started gathering onto the stage talking about the history. We've had several people, including the former DNC chair, Jamie Harrison, on here talking about the South Carolina motto, as I read, I hope, and what this means. They talked about running a campaign for the moment.

17:44All right, we can now make a major projection in the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives with huge consequences here in Washington, D.C., across the nation and around the world. CNN projects the Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives. This is a major victory for the Democratic Party, who are hoping to retake the majority after four years out of power. We're able to make this call because the CNN decision team has looked at all 435 House races across the country. And we have determined that when all the votes are in, Democrats will win far more and more, at least 218 seats, but many more in the U.S.

18:24House. We also expect Democrats to far surpass the three seats they needed to pick up to cross that 218 threshold. Hakeem Jeffries, the Democrat from New York, who is the current House minority leader, is poised to become Speaker of the House. And that also would be historic. That would make him the very first black Speaker of the House of Representatives in the history of the United States. And CNN's Manu Raju is live at Hakeem Jeffries' headquarters in Washington, D.C. Manu? Yeah, if you can hear the crowd behind me, they are going wild right now because they're watching the projection that you just announced, Jake, that Democrats are poised to retake the House of Representatives, putting Hakeem Jeffries on path to become Speaker of the House.

19:10And this will be historic, too, of course. He'll be the first black Speaker in American history. And, of course, with becoming Speaker of the House means the Democrats will now be in control of the agenda, the legislative agenda. They'll have subpoena power in their oversight committees. They plan to launch investigations against President Trump. And they'll have to confront their own Democratic divisions and their fights over the various policy matters. But in a very important development that is shaping up tonight is they could have actually a relatively comfortable majority. We'll see what the final number is here, Jake, because a lot of Democratic sources that I've been talking tonight believe that the way things are shaping up now, They could have more than 230 seats in the House.

19:53That's more than what Mike Johnson has right now in his Republican majority. And if they do have 230, if they approach 240, which would be a tidal wave of sorts, then Jeffries would have a lot of room to maneuver with this very divided caucus between more progressive members, the Democratic Socialist types, some of the more moderate members who come from these very conservative districts. Remember, the reason why Democrats will be in the House majority, Jake, is because of these Democrats who are winning in these ruby red Trump districts. Big reason why for this Democratic victory tonight, Jake.

20:25All right, Manu Raju at the headquarters of presumably soon to be Speaker Jeffries. And I have to say, wow. Wow. I mean, I can't I can't even get to the House thing because we kind of all saw that coming. But the fact that Annie Andrews, Dr. Annie Andrews, is going to be the next senator from South Carolina gives an indication really of how the rest of this night is going to go. And it's a blue NAMI. It is. And let's talk about the House for a minute, because what Manu was saying is so important. It's not as if given the blue NAMI that you were just talking about looks like is coming. This is going to be a really small majority for Hakeem Jeffries, the kind of small majority that Mike Johnson has had to deal with and Nancy Pelosi before him.

21:17It looks like he's going to have a big caucus. Now, the bigger the caucus he has, the more personalities he has, but also the more room that he will have to maneuver, because at the beginning of this election cycle, when we were watching the primaries, there was the big storyline was and still is that there are so many more Democratic socialists or those on the hard left. They wanted blue seats. Now what you're going to see is people who are Democrats who are much more moderate because they had to be more moderate to take red seats that we're going to see probably down the pike this evening. So this is a very, very, very big moment for the Democratic Party and also for Washington.

21:59I just want to also say that right now, this is the beginning of Donald Trump's lame duck portion of his term. It's the lame duck era. I mean, they're having a watch party at the White House right now, but life has just fundamentally changed for everyone inside the White House because of the Democrats retaking control of the House, because they know that is going to mean subpoenas and investigations and oversight that Democrats have already been focusing on and saying that they are going to carry out starting with the Iran war and Secretary Pete Hegseth. And so it's a huge moment for the White House in terms of what the last two years of Donald Trump's presidency looks like.

22:36He's been here before. But, you know, I was watching his press conference from 2018 after Democrats retook control and we were waiting on Nancy Pelosi to become House Speaker. And the president came out and he was optimistic the day after the midterms in 2018 that he could work with Democrats, that they could negotiate on legislation, that they could actually get stuff passed. I'm told it's going to look a lot different this time. The president is already calling himself Mr. Vito. We've heard that the White House is not going to comply with congressional subpoenas like they did before. And so it is going to be a very different Washington after tonight, just given this.

23:11It's a huge moment for everyone inside the White House, even if they thought this was coming and they were bracing for it. They also weren't sure what that margin was going to look. Yeah. And we'll still see. We'll see how big it is, whether it does get up to 240 Democrats. You've been talking a lot, Jake, about the firsts and the history making moments tonight. Obviously, we saw Byron Donalds as the first African-American governor in Florida and the first female African-American governor anywhere with each of Lance Bottoms, assuming that Hakeem Jeffries is elected by his caucus. And there's what you have to be elected by the whole house, but his caucus will have a majority.

23:47He will be the first African-American speaker of the house. And, you know, it's it's. And he and Trump don't have a great relationship. Remember, they mocked him constantly. He doesn't have the respect for him like he held for Nancy Pelosi. That's a good point. He actually kind of ignored Hakeem Jeffries for a while and focused his attention on Schumer and then moved to Jeffries. And he's going to have no choice but to deal with Jeffries. I will say, and I think Dana makes an excellent point, Anderson, about the fact that Hakeem Jeffries will have, and I'm sure he's thinking I should have such problems.

24:22He's going to have a big caucus likely, and there will be moderates as conservative Democrats squaring off against the hard left DSA Democrats. The unifier for that will be how much they all object to Donald Trump. That is certainly true. Van Jones, is this bigger than you? I'm happy, happy, happy. I'm so happy. Listen, this is way bigger. This is like Christmas and a birthday and an Easter Bunny and Halloween. This is the repudiation of Trumpism that people have been hoping for, seeing American democracy stand up. Sometimes you have kleptocratic rulers that get in power and they ensconce themselves for decades.

25:07In America, 24 months later, knock it off, you don't want it. And by the way, if you join a cult, at some point the cult leader takes you to Jonestown and tries to get you to drink the Kool-Aid. This is Jonestown for the Republican Party. They drank the Kool-Aid, and they have candidates that are dropping like flies across the country because they did not stand up to this guy when he was doing things that were wrong, when he was violating the law, when he was running over our system. They didn't stand up to him, and they're paying the price. It's Jonestown tonight. You join a cult. At some point, you go to Jonestown.

25:41That's where you are tonight, Republicans. Scott, I don't know if you want to check what's in your glass. You realize I'm sitting right here. I can hear everything you're saying. I've been here the entire time. Well, look, I'm not going to sugarcoat it. There's a political science term for what's happening. It's called a country ass whooping. That's what's happening right now. Across the board. Kentucky. I think the modern term, Scott, is BTA. Look, you know, there's a lot of reasons for what's happening right now. The most immediate issue is cost of living and gas prices. And that is the bottom line.

26:21You could read into a lot of other things. You can be jubilant about this, that, or the other. But at the end of the day, the American people have here and now concerns. And that's really the lesson you've got to take away from this. And that's the thing that the Democrats are going to have to take away from this. They didn't really run on a platform. They didn't really run on any legislation. Heavy is the head that wears the crown. And now they partially wear it in Washington. I could only, to pick out a silver lining, look back at 2010. in. The Democrats in the White House, where Axe was, took a bit of a shellacking, I think President Obama called it, and he turned right around and learned from it and ended up getting reelected in 2012.

26:57There's a way to learn from nights like this. That's what the Republicans are going to have to do. Democrats are going to celebrate tonight. But Republicans have to wake up tomorrow and realize that, you know, a great thing about America is there's always another election and the work starts tomorrow. Well, also, what do Democrats learn from this? Yeah. Well, first of all, you name check me in 2010. I still have the scars on my ass. But you but you bounce back. That was the point. Yes. But, you know, the key of what you said was you learn from it. And the question is, does this president have the capacity to learn?

27:33That's it, brother. I think one of the reasons he's in the jam he's in is because there were all these signals that people were unhappy. There are all these signals that people were suffering. There are all these people, signals that people objected to the overreach of ICE and to the to to some of his economic. And he ignored it all. And he told people, no, everything's great. This is the golden age. And the question is now, if his reaction is to be defiant, he's not reading the room. And that's not what people that's that. It's just going to be more of the same. And then the question is going to be for the Republican Party.

28:11Do they I'm not going to go to the Jonestown thing, but do they follow him off the cliff going into 2028? I think this is going to be a moment of truth in terms of the Democratic Party. I hope that the Democratic Party follows through on what they did campaign on, which was to try and roll back some of these health care cuts, which was to try and influence these tariffs and try and end that. many of those, which would be to try and bring this war to an end, which would be to try and shine a bright light and try and rein in corruption that harms the American people. I think that they should do that.

28:50If all they do is pursue Trump, like the great white whale or the great orange whale, if all they do is that, then they will be in the same position he is in because he got elected because he said he was going to help the American people. And instead, he spent his time on retribution and on building monuments to himself. And people said, what about us? Well, I mean, have we seen much evidence that this president really learns from his mistakes and evolves and changes? Or is he still the same person that has been on the public stage for two decades? That's one question. But I think your question about what the Republican Party does next is the one I'm really the most interested in, because we have seen time and time again.

29:32And when I was on the Hill during the first Trump administration, every question you were always asking, are you going to break with President Trump? Is this not beyond the pale for what you know, whatever has happened that particular day? And the answer has always been no. And now we're facing a presidential contest where, honestly, J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio have dominated that. J.D. Vance seeming to be President Trump's choice. Are there going to be more Republicans who jump in there? What are Republicans in Congress going to do? Are they going to be willing to break with him? But can I be happy right now for my party?

30:01I don't want to talk about Donald Trump anymore. Listen, we have the first gay man. But they're going to talk about Donald Trump, man. I'm happy. They are. You're not going to steal my joy. I'm happy. We got the first gay man in the Senate, Chris Pappas from New Hampshire. We got a black female senator for the first time out of Illinois, Julianna Stratton. We got three black governors serving at the same time. in America. We're going to have a black speaker house. I'm happy. Donald Trump is miserable and I'm happy tonight. Can I also say... I got iced tea in my cup. Is there a danger, though, for Democrats?

30:37Is the lesson... What is the lesson Democrats say? Is it an embrace of the Democratic Party or is it these candidates? They're not embracing us at all. This is the American people repudiating the abuse of power, the out-of-touch, the glitter, the gold, the men's butts, all this stuff that Donald Trump was doing that made no sense. And American people out here hurting people. Hospitals getting closed. People can't fill up their gas tank past a quarter tank. It's terrible what's happening out here. This dude is out of touch. This is a repudiation of Donald Trump. And I'm happy about it. But also, look at who America's electing.

31:12Yeah, that's what I was going to say. It's not a blue wave, it's a rainbow wave. We're electing all kind of great people. And it also, like after years, decades of dynastic politics, okay, when we've had Bushes and Clintons and Trumps on the ticket over and over again. Biden, who was Obama's vice president, right? There is so much new blood in the system. Yeah, this is such an important point. And they're not the typical people. They're people who come right from the heartland. They represent the states that have now turned over. And they're going to bring new sensibilities. I'll tell you one thing.

31:44I think the American people wanted a cleansing of Washington. and a lot of candidates, you know, you look at Maine and we don't know how that race is going to turn out tonight. You look at Maine, Susan Collins is the ultimate sort of institutional player, the ultimate insider who said, I know how to work the system for you. People hate the system. They believe the system is not working for them. And these newcomers who are new to Washington and who come from different kinds of places, the Tallaricos and the Hamiltons and so on, I think are going to be a breath of fresh air there. You said it's a cleansing of Washington.

32:22I think it's a cleansing of the elites. I mean, you've talked to some pollsters and strategists. I think in both parties looking across the board in these races, it's a rejection of the elites, whether you're a political elite, corporate elite, tech elite. If you're one of the elites and it feels like that no matter what's happening in the country, you tend to float above it and are immune from it, you're getting rejected. And of course, the quickest way to take that out is in a vote, which we're having right now. But the quickest way to climb back is for everybody to realize what's happening and to engage in some personal self-reflection and some accountability, whether that's for yourself as a politician or for industries or for entire institutions.

33:03Yeah, it's the elites. That's the thread among all this. But the perception is that the elites have captured our policies and capture and particularly these big money corporate elites. And by the way, that's how Trump got elected in the first place. That's how he got elected in the first place. No, it's OK. I mean, John Ossoff, by the way, was trashing AI in his speech, his victory speech. But Scott, do you think as of tonight, President Trump is a lame duck? Well, yes. I mean, he's not going to be able to run again. He doesn't that doesn't mean he's still not possessive of enormous power. I mean, he can veto bills.

33:36He can issue executive orders. What he says is still going to be highly influential in the Republican Party. The question is, is he going to lead the party in a different direction? Is he going to start to express preferences about who he wants to follow him? What do those people do with those preferences if he expresses them? He still has enormous influence over Republicans. But look, the wheels of democracy turn on. And 2028 begins right now. Can he handle being a lame duck? Well, of course, I think he can handle it. But the question is, what's the party and what's everybody else going to do with it?

34:09Because, you know, he'll he'll have certain views and he'll have one certain influence over certain issues. And there may be people who say, well, it's not in my best interest. And how he reacts to that. I'm glad you mentioned the wheel of democracy, because it's awesome when it turns, even when it turns against you, when people get their say and bring about real fundamental change. That's the inspiring thing about democracy. Every two years, the people get to vote again. Yeah, I want to go down to the decision desk. David Challien is there. I want to try to get some understanding of how we were able to call the House without reaching that number.

34:48David, how did that happen? Yeah. Well, it happened because of these very smart people that are in this room, all of whom are statisticians, political experts, looking at the model that they have built to get to this kind of projection. I say model because as I look at the screen, you could see we've actually projected 116 House Democrats so far, right? That's not 218. So people at home may be like, if you didn't count up to 218, how do you know that Democrats are going to win control of the House? Well, it is because this model that looks at races we've already called and where there are similar districts across the rest of the country behaving right now in the vote count the way that the races we called have.

35:29Plus, we've already called, I think, five or six pickups for the Democrats above the three that they would need to win the House. And right now, Anderson, if you look at our uncalled races and who's ahead, if you look at the board, this is just looking at potential flips right now. These are where Democrats are leading in Republican held districts. Right now, there are 47 of them. I'm scrolling down here. Some of these races are still close in the vote count. But there are 47 districts where Democrats are leading in what is currently a Republican district. Now, they may not win all 47 of those.

36:12The votes are still going. But a whole slew of them, these gray ones at the end. Right now, the Democrats up by more than 10 percentage points. And only when I get to the bottom of the list here, do you see that there are only five districts right now where Republicans are leading in Democratic districts. So given where we are in the vote count, given that the model has shown us at that confidence level that this decision desk needs, which is more than ninety nine point five percent confidence that there is no way that Republicans will be able to achieve 218 seats. They were able to project control of the House for the Democrats.

36:44What else are they looking at now? Well, right now we're looking at some of these Senate races, especially in like deep red territory, waiting for some more vote to come in in places like Texas, Kansas and Ohio. Those are all three states Donald Trump won by double digits. We haven't projected them yet. This team is now actively looking at where is the outstanding vote so that they can get to a confidence level to make projections in those races. All right, David Chely, thanks very much. I want to go back to Jake. Thanks so much, Anderson. And let us take a look right now at where we are in the U.S.

37:18Senate. We've already called the House. It's going to be in Democratic control. The Senate, we have not made any calls about that yet. At the beginning of the night, I told you that in order to recapture the Senate, Democrats would need to flip four Republican seats. We have since called Cooper in North Carolina as one of those seats. And, shockingly, Andrews in South Carolina as one of those seats. I'm still in shock. Somebody should throw a blanket over me. In any case, that means that there are still two Senate seats, Republican seats, that Democrats have to pick up. So where are Democrats in that process?

37:54Well, right now, Democrats are leading in five Republican seats, five Republican seats. Republicans are leading in one Democratic seat. And there is an Independent leading in another Republican seat. So that's where we are. And right now, that's bad news. Net positive for Democrats. Five, if you include the independent, four or one either way. I don't want to do the math on that. I'm already confused with the independent. But in any case, so far, bad night for Republicans. But we're still waiting to call a bunch of races. Dana, where are we in on Ohio? So let's start with Ohio, because this has been a pretty tight race.

38:34It's a little bit tighter than the last time we looked. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic candidate who was defeated two years ago and is now trying to get back to the Senate, he is at 48.2 percent. John Husted, the incumbent Republican who is filling out J.D. Vance's term, is at 47 percent. So it is close, 79 percent of the estimated vote in. Now let's look at another red state that is very, very close. Troy Jackson, the Democratic challenger, is, look how close this is, he's a little more than 3 ,500 votes ahead of Susan Collins, the incumbent Republican who has been in the seat for three decades, defied all kinds of headwinds against her and polls that have shown her down.

39:24Now the question is whether or not she can continue to defy those odds. We're going to continue to watch that. Now let's look at Texas. Texas still has James Tallarico, the Democratic nominee ahead. He's at 58.1%. He's still well over a million votes ahead of Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate, 43.3%. Just a reminder, Texas is that state the Democrats have been trying to get back in their columns since 1988. And we'll see if they're able to do it this time. We're going to keep watching it. Kansas. Kansas is a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years. The Democrat this time, Adam Hamilton, is ahead by right now 104 ,000 votes.

40:14He's at 54.7 percent. Roger Marshall, the incumbent Republican, is at 42.5 percent, 71 percent of the estimated vote in. Now let's look at Iowa, another one of the red seats that Democrats are hoping to flip. Josh Turek, the Democratic candidate there, he's at 52.9%. Ashley Hinson, the Republican who wants to take over for the retiring Republican, Joni Ernst, she's at 44.3%, 40 % of the vote in. So all of these red states right now have Democrats ahead. Yeah. And just to sum up what you just so greatly explain to our viewers. This is our key race leaderboard. These are races that we that are being right now.

41:03They would flip if they continue. And you can see Ohio, Maine, Iowa for Democrats, Nebraska for an independent, Kansas for a Democrat, Minnesota with five percent of the vote in Michelle Tafoi is ahead. I don't know what's going on with Minnesota. We're waiting for more vote to come in. And then Tallarico, obviously, in Texas. I mean, that's just a stunning lineup that even a lot of Democrats in the Senate didn't think we would be at this moment right now. It doesn't mean they're all going to flip, but it's pretty stunning. Right now, Democrats are leading in seven Republican seats. There's an independent leading in a Republican seat.

41:39And Republicans are leading in one Democratic seat. That's the Minnesota seat that there's so little of the vote that's been counted. And we'll go through them, the big ones first, but just to reinforce the point you just made. Now, I'll get to Minnesota in a second because it's a valid question. But that is the definition of a wave, right? You have a whole bunch of close races. The wave comes ashore and most of them break one way. The close ones mostly break one way when a wave comes ashore. That's the definition, the wave that pushes the close ones, one party or the other. Even good candidates.

42:09I mean, Tallarico is not running against a strong Republican candidate. But Turek is. I mean, Ashley Hinson's a perfectly good candidate on the Republican side. Absolutely. Lucy, Susan Collins has survived. She still might tonight. We still haven't called that race. But Susan Collins has been in the Senate for 30 years. She's the only Republican senator reelected in a state that Joe Biden won in 2020. She has proven to be a survivor. That's what happens. I was texting with a Republican earlier tonight who said this is going to be a death march and a blowout and a horrible night for Republicans.

42:38And he said you're going to create a lot of what he called accidental congressmen because people get swept in a wave. And then two years later, some of them lose. Right. You see what happens. That's the very definition of a wave. So where do we want to start? Let's just look here first. Number one, this at the beginning of the cycle, this was the number one pickup target for Democrats. You had the meteoric rise of Graham Plattner, the oyster farmer, and then the collapse of Graham Plattner. And the big question has been, you know, is Troy Jackson a good enough candidate to defeat Susan Collins?

43:04So where are we now? Twenty six percent of the vote. This is a very close race. If you if to my eyes and my experience, a very, very close race, I would say slight advantage to the Democrat. Now, why do I say that? Because half of the population of Maine lives inside that circle I just drew. All right. The rest of this is very rural at the second. So half of the population lives inside that circle. I just want to take you back to 2024. That's a Senate race. Let me take you back to the presidential race in prison. You see down here, you see all this blue. We don't have many much votes from this part of the state.

43:33Let's see if they come in. If those blue townships perform like they did in 2024, even Susan Collins, his last election. We'll see what happens down here. That's key to Troy Jackson as we go forward in Maine. Jake raised a question and a really good one. And Minnesota has since come back here. Let me come up here. There. I knew I was in the wrong place. Minnesota, 56 to 41. That seems like a wow. Michelle Tafoya, many of you know her, the sports broadcaster. You see her on the NFL. She left her job to run for Senate and she's run a very good campaign. But with 6 % of the vote in, is this real or is it what we would call a red mirage?

44:07Well, it's the facts as we are right now. But I just want to go through. You say it's only 6 percent of the vote. I just want to go. These are the two largest counties in the state. Hennepin is Minneapolis. It's a huge part of the Democratic base. We don't have any votes in yet. Right. Almost nothing. Almost nothing. And then you move over here to Ramsey County. That's St. Paul. It's the second largest county in the state. And we have no votes in. So the two biggest blue counties in the state are not in yet. And so that's why that one looks like that right now. It doesn't mean it won't stay that way.

44:36but we need to get the votes there before you can say that we're going to watch that. So where else? We said here, an independent winning in Nebraska. That's a big deal. Only 40 percent of the vote. And they're a little shy of that. So we need to wait. But Dan Osborne doing what you have to do if you're going to run it as if he's a Democrat. If you want to beat a Republican in Nebraska, it has to start over here in the eastern part of the state. Omaha, the college towns and run it up. But then the question is, can you compete out here? So I want to do something with Senator Ricketts that I've done in some other states.

45:09Again, there's a lot of pain in the prairie. So I just want to look. Is he overperforming Trump anywhere? No, no. This is why these Republicans are struggling. And it's not, you know, I think Caitlin said the president's reporting is the candidates are bad. No, the climate is bad. And the climate is bad in this part of the country because of tariffs, an uneven economy, and then a war that took diesel from 360 to more than six bucks. That's what's happening here, and that's what makes it so hard for the Republicans. And that's why Republican voters are either staying home, or some of them, clearly, are voting for an independent because they don't like what's happening right here in Washington.

45:47So that's remarkable. We'll see if it holds up. This one here is interesting. Josh Torek's lead has come down a little bit as the vote count has come up. We've been to Iowa several times in this cycle. A lot of Trump voters, a lot of Republicans who want change, who said they were going to vote Democrat for Congress and maybe Republican for Senate. But Democrats in Iowa who've been waiting, waiting, waiting for Republican House seats, a Republican governor for a very long time. They've been waiting for a year like this and they've been coming out of the woodwork. So Josh Turek at the moment at 45 percent is leading.

46:15Just want to see. So you run it at this point. We're not quite at half yet. Right. I usually wait till we get over half before I do this. But what are we missing? What votes are still out? So we don't have any votes from Davenport or Cedar Rapids. That is absolutely critical. And I get back to in a second. You see in Iowa City, College Town. That's where Democrats were running up. A lot of votes there. That's good. Not so good news for the Democrats is you still have some votes left in the Des Moines area. But you see how small that blue is? That means most of those votes are in. So more votes to be counted here and here and here, which are blue, but not giant circles.

46:45So let's go back. I just want to go back to a second. So we have nothing here in Scott County. Democrats out here have been working really hard. This is a county Trump won by four points. So watch this one as we get later in the night. Is it red or is it blue? If it's blue, that bodes well for Turek, obviously. And then you come up here to Lynn County, which is where Cedar Rapids is. It's the second largest county by population in Iowa. We have no votes yet. Turek is running it up in Polk County. That's where Des Moines is. That's number one in population. Watch this, right? Watch this here as you get there.

47:17And I just want to remind people as we do do this, Ashley Hinson is currently a congresswoman. Her district is roughly right about there. So this is an area where she is well known, where she is run, where she has support. We'll see there's a lot of votes missing up there. So we'll see what happens right up there. Just want to check in on Cedar Falls, though. This is a Democratic area, Blockhawk County, in her district. And Josh Turek is doing what a Democrat needs to do there. So the Iowa race, nine points right now, which any Iowa Democrat would tell you, wow. Let's just check in on this one again.

47:48It's the biggest wow of the night. 1988, 38 years ago, the last time Texas sent a Democrat to the United States Senate. we're approaching 60 percent of the vote. Why is our decision desk cautious when you have a big lead like that, more than a million votes? Well, you see it. You see all that gray, 254 counties in Texas, more by far than any other state. But the but is this, still 25 percent of the vote to come in in Harris County, Houston in the suburbs, big lopsided margin. Again, it's been a long time, but that's what a Democrat needs to do to win statewide in Texas. Second most populous county is Dallas County, 73 percent, Dallas in the suburbs.

48:27So go back to the George W. Bush days. This was a lot more competitive for Republicans. Not anymore. Then you move over to Tarrant County, which is Fort Worth. That's the third largest county in the state. And again, this is the model you see in other states, battleground states that are competitive. Democrats run it up in the urban areas and the close in suburbs around them, college educated voters. This is the model. We just haven't had to worry about this in Texas in a very long time. And here is the key. Jake, we talked about this earlier and we had fewer votes. Let me turn this off first so I can move up the map a little bit and stretch this out.

48:55As we get deeper into the night, the question has been in 2020 and 2024, Latino support for Trump, Latino support for Abbott, Latino support for Republicans was going that way in Texas. And this is this is, I think, going to be one of the giant stories of the night. You look at the Hispanic population. This is everywhere in Texas, obviously, but it is heavily concentrated in South Texas in the Rio Grande Valley. Number one, ICE enforcement. I've been there several times in this cycle. ICE enforcement has longtime American citizens of Mexican descent saying they're afraid to go out, afraid to go out.

49:28Number two, Gina Hinojosa and her family are from here. They're very engaged in politics down there, and they've been working on turnout. And so you see right now, we still have more to go, right, more to go. But you look at this right now, you go back to the presidential race in 2024, and you do this. See, that was Trump's support, right? Trump rose his support. That's what Trump did in this area. just two years ago. And now you see what's happening in the Senate race with more to fill in. If this down here stays blue, Tallarico is on his way to the United States Senate. It's just it's a fascinating.

49:59You mentioned it earlier. Trump just redrew the map, took states like Ohio and really almost Iowa off the map while they're back tonight, including Texas. Also because of Trump. Yes. Also because of Trump. We have a couple of races that we want to call for you now, a couple of projections.

50:18Here we go. These are both expected. They're Republican holds in the state of Arkansas. CNN can project that Sarah Huckabee Sanders will be reelected, the governor of Arkansas. This will be her second term. And also in Arkansas, Senator Tom Cotton, the Republican incumbent, will be reelected. So those are expected and those are Republican holds in Arkansas, the governor's race and the Senate race there. Let us take a look again at what's going on in Texas. We haven't called anything here, but Democrats are obviously having a very good night. The Democrat James Tallarico currently has 58 percent of the vote.

50:56Ken Paxson, the Republican, has 40.4 percent of the vote. Tallarico with a more than one million vote advantage right now with 58 percent of the estimated vote in. In the governor's race, it's also quite competitive. The Democrat Gina Hinojosa has 55.8 percent of the vote. The incumbent Republican governor, Greg Abbott, has 42.9 percent of the vote. You know, also with a more than seven hundred ninety thousand vote advantage right now with 59 percent of the vote in. Fascinating stuff going on in Texas. Let's go to Erin Burnett, who is at Tallarico HQ in Austin, Texas. And I hope she can hear me.

51:36Erin, over to you. I can hear you now. It's very loud here. It's very loud here, Jake. And look, they're anticipating here. They're getting more and more optimistic. And you just heard what John King was going through. We've got a lot of votes still to come in in Texas. But where we have the votes is extremely significant. And one of the areas, as John King was showing, and you can see this a moment ago, this is what was playing on the big screen here with the crowd waiting. John King going through the crucial Rio Grande Valley down along the border. And, Lulu, that is where right now James Tallarico is running very strongly.

52:11If that continues, as John King said, he's on his way to being the next senator from Texas. We're awaiting more and more numbers. But that is what they are feeling more and more here now. Yeah. And it will be absolutely the story of the night. If Tallarica wins, if Gina Hinojosa, who let's not forget, was just had to beg for money, begging for this, you know, for money from the Governor's Association, because she was running out of funds. She ran this scrappy campaign. And now, you know, with a fighting chance to be the first Latina governor of this state, Latinos in Texas will really be the story of all of this.

52:56And if you look at the Rio Grande Valley, you will probably see a swing by Latino men who went hard for Trump but have been disproportionately impacted by his ICE enforcement and also by the economic ills. And so let's look, you can see here on the board, Jeff, okay? Hinoosa right now leads the incumbent governor, Greg Abbott. Now, among people who thought maybe, maybe James Tallarico could pull this out, they didn't want to get too excited Democrats because they said they've been there before with Texas, a lot of them weren't even talking about the governor's race. There's no doubt. Hinoosa's underperforming Tallarico, that's true, but not by much.

53:34And it is very possible that this is within her grasp. For sure. I mean, we see the winds blowing. The issues are the same, the disagreements, the discontent about pricing, war, data centers. Texas was ground zero for the switch in Republicans on data centers. There's no doubt. But tonight, James Tallarica, I'm told he has spent the day crafting a speech. We will see what he delivers tonight. But he has been a different kind of Democratic candidate. If elected, he would be a different kind of Democratic senator. He talks about both sides. He does not talk about the left or the right. He talks about the top and bottom.

54:09What I'm most struck by, his message is so consistent to what it was during his primary race when we were here back in February and March. The difference is Elon Musk. Over the last three to four weeks, he has made Elon Musk and the money that he's invested in this campaign, 168 million or so for Ken Paxton, a central part of the corruption message. So the corruption message has been key to this, but it's also been a message of kindness. And thinking back to if he's going to be able to be a bridge to Republicans, his faith, his faith has been at the core of his message. He talks about flipping tables.

54:47He talks about Bible verses in his speeches. So this is something that is different from Beto O 'Rourke. And as we look at numbers tonight, Tarrant County, Fort Worth, one of the largest red counties in America that often goes blue in federal races. He is up now 60 to 39. As you talked about, Beto O 'Rourke won that by one point and lost the state. So it's the counties around Dallas that are so key, but he is a different kind of Democratic candidate. And it is important, what he is actually saying to Texans is this, when you have a state that is completely in control of one party, it does not work for you.

55:24You need competition. That has been one of his main pitches. If you vote for me, that means that you will have a state that will not be red. It will not be blue. It will be purple. And that has had a lot of resonance when you talk to voters. You have been across this state and, of course, to others. Now, we've had a seismic move with Annie Andrews upsetting Darlene Graham in South Carolina. If James Tallarico wins here, if Gina Hinojosa wins here as governor, you're now in a race for what is the biggest, what is the most seismic, what is the most seismic upset in U.S. politics tonight? I mean, I think the Dr.

56:00Annie Andrews victory in South Carolina, simply because it was a surprise. I mean, the James Tallarico race here, if this becomes it, he's been up in polls. But I think overall, the through line is the voter discontent, the anger out here in America. People want something different. It's a message to the president. Yeah, a huge message to the president. and obviously waiting here. But as I can say, Jake, there's a lot of optimism here in this crowd. They are feeling the wind at their back right now. We'll see which way this goes. But right now, obviously, these numbers, as they're coming in, continuing to hold very strongly for Tallarico and also for Gina Hinojosa at this moment in the governor's race, Jake.

56:42All right, Erin Burnett in Austin, Texas, where the music is playing. I imagine that the spirit's a little less festive at the White House, Caitlin. Lynn, what can you tell us is going on there? I mean, it's mainly just staff that are gathered there with the president watching. Several members of his cabinet were there earlier today, the ones who have been out in the country making the case for him. The president actually just posted for the first time about three hours, Jake, on Truth Social. I am told he's in the East Room watching these results with them. And he wrote, quote, I wasn't on the ballot.

57:13And if I was, we would have won in a landslide. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Now, of course, you might read that and hear that the president for months has been telling everyone to act like he's on the ballot. Yeah, I mean, I would. We're going to have a lot of time and a lot of smarter minds than mine are going to talk about this. But this is a referendum on Trump. It's always a referendum in the midterms on who is the president and how they feel they're doing. And a lot of the reasons why Republicans are doing poorly have to do specifically directly from Trump policy decisions having to do with the tariffs and the trade war, having to do with the high gas and diesel prices because of the war in Iran.

58:00I mean, he is on the ballot, essentially. And it's just that a lot of the Republicans that were running for office are paying the price for it. Yeah, I mean, obviously, I think that a lot of the president's allies, maybe not publicly or on the record, but in the conversations I've been having with them, had he not launched the war with Iran back in February, in late February, would tonight look a lot different? Would the map look a lot different? Yeah, they think so. And also, of course, the candidates that the president picked. He went against John Thune and what a lot of Republicans wanted in several of these primaries.

58:34And so that's how they're looking at it. You know, the president has been going out there. He has noted what historical trends have been, Jake, that, you know, the president doesn't typically win the president in power. But I think you make a good point in terms of what his policies have done. And we saw that in the polls that David Chayun was talking about where voters were saying, hey, I voted for Trump because I was promised I was going to be better off. and now I'm two years into his White House. And also right now what we're seeing is that the strategy that the vice president and everyone on down has been trying to carry out, which is blaming the Biden administration for high prices, saying we're still dealing with the mess that we inherited for them, has not been successful.

59:11And you're also not going to get your$5 ,000 check, I should note, now that we've called the House for Democrats. And there's one other thing that David was talking about that voters were putting high on their list of issues, and that's corruption. And the fact that the president and his team and by the way, people look at Democrats, some Democrats who are in charge and have questions about what the stock, what their stock portfolios look like and so forth. But across the board, the notion that corruption is such a big issue and is very much related to how badly people feel and how tough they feel it is to get ahead.

59:54And they see people in Washington getting very, very far ahead. It is really interesting. So it's not just the economic issues. It's related to the corruption issue. And specifically, as you know, John Ossoff, who was, I think, one of the first Senate races we called, if not the first Senate race we called tonight, the first competitive one, I should say. That was his pitch on the stump directly tying you are worse off and the corruption. And look how rich Donald Trump, the Trump family, Jared Kushner, how rich they are all getting. Alina Habba and every there were there were days there were weeks where it felt like every day there was a new corruption story.

1:00:34Well, look at what Robert Garcia is saying tonight. He's been the ranking Democrat on the House Oversight Committee. James Comer has been the chair of that so far with the Epstein investigation and everything that's played out. He's now poised to become the chair of the House Oversight Committee. He put out a two-word statement directly referencing the crypto deals, all of the other aspects of the Trump presidency, the Trump inner circle, the first family. And his two-word statement was lawyer up. And, of course, we'll see how the White House responds to those subpoenas. I don't think it's going to look like that did in the first term in 2018.

1:01:05But they're making very clear what a key aspect of a Democratic House majority looks like. And that's investigations into all of those things that the two of you just mentioned. Yeah. And, you know, it's interesting. Some at the end of this, when it's all over, somebody will do the math on it. But but Epstein appeared in a lot of Democratic campaign ads. Epstein. And, you know, two years ago, that was an issue that Republicans tried to use against Democrats. We have a big race that we're going to call right now. Boris Sanchez, a lot of people waiting for this one. What do you got? A historic projection to bring you from the Buckeye State of Ohio there.

1:01:41One of the most controversial races we've watched all election season. Amy Acton, the former state health director in Ohio, becoming the next governor of that state as she defeats former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. Acton becomes the first Democrat to win the governorship of Ohio in 20 years, a state that Donald Trump won three consecutive times. She ran as a moderate. She supported her voter ID measure. She supported local collaboration with ice crackdowns and also banning transgender athletes from girls sports. She is the first female governor in the history of the Buckeye State, defeating Ramaswamy, despite that very controversial ad that featured her estranged mom that lost custody of her when she was 12 amid child sexual assault allegations.

1:02:24A historic win, a big pickup for Democrats, Jake. A huge pickup. And you said she won despite that ad. There are going to be people who think she won because of that ad. One of the most notorious ads, perhaps the most horrific ad that we've ever seen. And Lauren Fox, you are at Dr. Acton's campaign headquarters in Columbus, Ohio. Tell us more. Yeah, I mean, you can hear the crowd erupting here with excitement as this is the first major projection that they have heard called in the state of Ohio in Columbus tonight. And obviously we have talked to Amy Acton over the last two weeks. She certainly did not run away from her personal story.

1:03:10And that ad put it front and center. She said everywhere that she went after that ad was running, she heard from voters who said that this was something that made her connected to them, not something that made her alienated from them. She said kindness was on the ballot. And certainly that is the reaction that you're hearing behind me. Jake. All right. Lauren Fox at Acton Campaign Headquarters in Columbus, Ohio. Let us bring you back to where the Senate races are right now. We are still waiting to see if Democrats are going to be able to flip two additional Republican seats. We have called them flipping North Carolina.

1:03:50I'm sorry. Yeah, North Carolina and South Carolina. Both Carolinas have been flipped. So there are still two Republican seats. Democrats need to flip if they are going to take control of the U.S. Senate. Where are they right now in that task, in that attempt? Democrats are leading in five Republican seats, five Republican seats. Where are Republicans in Democratic seats? Republicans are leading in one Democratic seat. And then, of course, there is the independent Dan Osborne in Nebraska, who is leading in one Republican seat as well. Let's go back to this big act and call, because I have to say the moment that ad appeared, I talked to a Republican running for office in Ohio and he said the ad did two things.

1:04:38He said, you know, he talking to Ohio voters, one, it made Ohio voters think that Vivek Ramaswamy does not share their values because that he would think that this was an appropriate thing to run an ad about. Two, it gave Dr. Acton a sense of stature, how she was dealing with it, how well she was responding to it that she did not necessarily have before. So that's one thing I'm thinking about right now. And the second thing I'm thinking about is what Congresswoman Nancy Mace said to me about that ad, which was that J.D. Vance, who enthusiastically supported that ad in Ohio campaigning for Ramaswamy, in Nancy Mace, Republican of South Carolina's view, J.D.

1:05:24Vance just hurt, if not ended his chances to become the next president of the United States by embracing such a despicable ad. Yeah, and reprimanding Republicans for criticizing it. And on the subject of Ohio, one of the things that Republicans there and elsewhere were worried about is whether or not Ramaswamy would pull down the rest of the Republican ticket. And that's still an open question. Let's look at the big picture at the Senate right now, because let's start with Ohio. Right now, Sherrod Brown is up. He's been up all night. I just want to give you a sense. We're going to go through some scenarios, possible Senate scenarios.

1:06:0347 Democrats, 43 Republicans. Democrats have picked up two seats and they would need to pick up three more seats in order to take the Senate. OK, it's so crazy to see South Carolina. That's not hypothetical. No, it happened. Both Carolinas. But let's just saying in Ohio, let's say for the purposes of this, just to look at what the Democrats pass could be to win control. let's say Ohio stays with the Democrat leader and it becomes a Democratic seat. Look at Texas. James Tallarico is ahead by more than 20 percent. So I think we can just, for the sake of this, put Texas in the Democratic column. That means that, look at this, eight seats remaining, including two Democratic seats that they need to hold.

1:06:54But let's just look at the Republican seats, never mind the Democrats, they would pick up, they would need to pick up two more. They're way ahead in Kansas and right now ahead in Iowa. Just that would mean Democratic control of the U.S. Senate. And that is just one potential path given where we have called so far and where the votes are coming in right now. And the White House went into tonight with low expectations, no expectations for the House, I guess I should say, but their really big hope that they were hoping to stave off in terms of Democratic optimism was holding on to the Senate. And I mean, I guess the question is, if they're looking at this map as it is right now, with the president's handpicked candidate in South Carolina, obviously not making it through with Darlene Graham against Danny Andrews, is if you're the White House, if you're Republicans, if you're John Thune, how you're looking at this when it comes to the decisions they made leading up to tonight.

1:07:48I'll tell you how they're looking at it. They're looking at the fact that they're glad they didn't get rid of the filibuster. That's one thing John Thune's happy about. I just want to add for the record, because I was showing the scenario, you see that there, you see it's 47, 43. In this scenario, we have already allocated the safe seats. So this is just looking at the battleground seats right here. John, I just want to make a point about Ohio and the conversation you were having about the Ramaswamy ad. And you see it in the math right here. You see it in the math. Look, Sherrod Brown is leading, as Dana just pointed out.

1:08:19He's leading, but it's a closer race. Look at his vote total. 1.9 million, right? 1.96 million, OK? So they're running in the same state. Let's look at the governor's race. Look at her vote total. She's up above 2 million. Wow. Right? When I was out there just last week, I cannot tell you, conservatives who were just disgusted, saying, to your point, we're common sense conservatives. This does not represent our values. I talked to three different Republican strategists out there who said it was a trap door. And House candidates are losing tonight, at least two of them, Mike Turner and Mike Carey in the Columbus area in the suburbs, who the Republicans thought they were going to win.

1:08:53I was at a gym in Portsmouth, it was Scioto County, the southernmost part of the state, right along the Kentucky border. I was interviewing a combat veteran there and he said he would never vote for Ramaswamy because of that ad. On the way out, I was just chatting with one of the women working out in the gym and she said to me, she said, if he ever brought my childhood into an ad like that, I would snap his neck. She was a conservative and a Republican and a Trump voter. I asked her to go on camera. She said no. You were in the gym, so I like that humble brag, John. But to that point, you know, to what Jake was saying earlier, it wasn't that the White House said, OK, that ad happened, but we're still going to pull for the Republican here.

1:09:30We're still going to campaign for him. Both President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance came out and enthusiastically defended it. And President Trump said, if I got an ad like that on my opponent when I was running, I would look up to the heavens and say thank you. It became very clear that they were not only standing against Amy Acton, victim of child rape at ages 9 through 12, but they were standing against law enforcement. Law enforcement had charged this man with rape, and then he went on the lam. And, I mean, voters at the end of the day are smart, decent people. They see this. They knew what it was.

1:10:07It was absolutely disgusting. and the fact that Ramaswamy did it and the fact that Trump and Vance stood by it was all about power and with decency thrown out the window. Can I ask, if I may change the subject, what's happening in Texas right now? Because I want to know about Tallarico and where the votes are and where they're still to come in, but also the governor's race. So they're both, again, they're tracking pretty closely. I just made the point about how they're not tracking. When you look at the state of Ohio, how Amy Acton is getting more votes, because as I said, I just met so many Republicans out there just I can't do it.

1:10:39Yeah, I can't do it. It was just disgusting. They voted for your point is that they voted for Acton and then many of them voted for John Husted, the incumbent Republican. Yeah, they're longtime Republicans. And Husted is a is a product. Unlike J.D. Vance, he took Husted suit. He was lieutenant governor. He's a product of the sort of the DeWine, Pointovich, Kasich history. DeWine appointed him. Yeah, the common sense conservatives who you said. What was it against? It was a decency. Let's look at Texas. Tallarico leading in the race right now. You see he's got four million votes. when you look up here.

1:11:06We got 66 percent of the vote in. So let's go and see what we're missing. Right. Let's go to the live outstanding vote and you bring it up in here. And so you see these circles. Number one, you see all that white in the gray area. Those are areas we don't have votes. There's 254 counties in Texas and Republicans run it up in those rural counties without a doubt. Although, as I pointed out earlier, Paxton is underperforming Trump everywhere. So he's not getting Donald Trump like numbers in Texas. You can still win. Trump won it by double digits. You can win. But that's weak. But you look at these other circles here.

1:11:34And where are they? We're still waiting for a lot of votes in Bexar County. That's San Antonio and around it. Travis County, Austin, around there. Dallas, near Dallas in the suburbs. A lot of blue votes still outstanding. Exactly, exactly. So those smaller areas are likely to end down here again in the Rio Grande Valley. Latinos in Texas are going to be a giant piece of this story tonight. Again, Trump's support went up from 2016 to 2020 to 2024. It was a huge part of his margin and the Republicans' margins in 2024. And there is just a swing back tonight. And again, you see it down there. So that's the Senate race.

1:12:05Let's just go over and look at the governor's. Remember, he's just over four million votes there. So let's go over to the governor's race. Tap right in there. I mean, a little behind, a little behind. She's a little behind, though. There are again, again, candidate quality, Paxton ethics issues. We met Republicans on our last trip down there who said I'm probably going to vote for Abbott. I cannot look my kids in the eye if I vote for Ken Paxton. I just can't. She's behind, but she's still ahead. But she's but she's still. Yeah. But she's still ahead of the incumbent. Right. She's behind Tellarico, who's a bit of a phenomenon.

1:12:34on in Texas. And Paxton's a bad candidate. So you have a combination of a very good Democratic candidate and a horrible candidate. But this is stunning. It has been 36 years. It was Ann Richards back then. But that a Latina is in position, not there yet, to be elected governor of Texas. And again, same live outstanding vote. And I just want to point this out again. This is where she is from. She's from down here. And this is where you have, when you look at the... I need to interrupt, Alan. Interrupt. Fire away. I'm interrupting. We do have some huge calls to make for you. This could be a defining moment tonight.

1:13:09CNN can now make these major projections.

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