Trump Focuses on Reflecting Pool, Projects in Final Message

0:00Every day, animals across the country face abuse and neglect. And every day, the ASPCA shows up to rescue animals in crisis. But they can't do it alone. Visit ASPCA.org slash need. Become a donor today to provide the care and shelter these animals urgently need. And for a limited time, the ASPCA will send you a free gift as a special thank you. Visit ASPCA.org slash need.

0:32Abby Phillip: Tonight, with hours to go, the president delivers his closing message from the deep end. We're giving serious thought to changing the name to the Trump reflecting pool. Plus, is it possible that a Michigan Democrat's about face to back the Republican will actually help Abdul El-Sayed? What Haley Stevens has done right now is unforgivable. Also, if Democrats win back power, what can the House do to keep Donald Trump in check? Not much, he says. Well, if that happens, I guess I'll become Mr. Vito. And what does the midterm outcome mean for both parties as the attention turns to 28? Live at the table, Bakari Sellers, David Urban, Lauren Wright, Chuck Rocha, and Holly Otterbein.

1:23Abby Phillip: Welcome to a special edition of Newsnight, Election Eve.

1:43Good evening.

1:44Abby Phillip: I'm Michael Smirconish in New York for Abby. Tonight, the final stretch. We're just hours away from the first polls opening. Early voting has been going on for weeks now, but the question remains whether the blue wave the prognosticators are forecasting is as imminent as they suggest. The last New York Times-Siena University poll before the midterms paints a worrying picture for Republicans. Democrats hold a lead in the critical Senate races in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, and Kansas. And in Alaska and Iowa, it's tight, but there's no clear leader. Cook's political report releasing their final ratings for the House, they project Democrats ending up with 230 to 240 seats.

2:23Abby Phillip: And in the Senate, Cook has five of the most important races as a toss-up, but have shifted the Michigan race in favor of the Democrats. We'll have more on that drama in just a moment. But with hours to go, Trump appears over the campaign season, telling his supporters at a rally in Kansas this over the weekend. You know, when God made vocal cords, he didn't make them to do 30 rallies. I'm closing the sucker down. I'm getting out of here. I got to get a little sleep. I've been doing a little too many of these. The White House praised the president's travel schedule the last few weeks, calling it, quote, the most relentless and far-reaching for any modern presidency.

3:04Abby Phillip: But in one of his last opportunities to make the case to voters before the polls open, the president chose to tout his construction projects, dedicating more than 20 minutes of his closing speech to that. I'm thrilled to announce the official opening of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. Now we're giving serious thought to changing the name to the Trump Reflecting Pool. Before we open it up to the table here, we invite you at home to join the debate. Head to CNN.com slash Abby and weigh in. We'll get to some of your comments throughout the program. David, I was in Washington. You knew I was coming to you first on this.

3:46Abby Phillip: I was in Washington recently, went to Lafayette Square. Clean. Beautiful. Benches refurbished. Statues had been all scrubbed and polished and so forth. I'm willing to give him credit for his care of certain of Washington's monuments. But you would never have advised him to give his closing speech at the Reflecting Pool in a climate of affordability. No, it's a little bit of a Marie Antoinette, let them be cake moment, almost akin to the, you know, come to get a$5 ,000 hamburger at Mar-a-Lago. That wouldn't have been my closing shots there at the end. But, you know, he's a different individual, Michael, as you know that.

4:24Abby Phillip: Is there no one close to him that he'll take advice from? Michael, listen. Surely someone would say to him, Mr. President, not the best idea. Yeah, I'm sure everybody told him that, right? And then he got in the beast and rode over to the reflecting board. Maybe that's why he got in a beast and went over to Reflecting the Bull because people did tell him that. I mean, I know, listen, on the campaign trail in 16 when I was Velcro with him, I would say certain things to say and not to say in Pennsylvania. And he would completely ignore me and go on the stage and say what I just asked him not to say, right, about voter fraud in Philadelphia and other things I would say, you know, listen, that's really not happening.

4:57He would just go up and say it and say, I decided not to listen to you.

5:00Abby Phillip: Lauren, what should the speech have been? What could he have said today? Policy focused. Policy focused on the Democratic Party and how they really don't have substantial ideas if they do, in fact, have a very successful night tomorrow night. I was very critical. Look, you know, when he basically demolished the East Wing and historians were up in arms, many of them I worked with were saying this is the worst thing that's happened. And I said this is not really on people's radar because they're not focused on White House history. they're focused on day-to-day costs. That cuts both ways. So there's no worse image than being in front of the reflecting pool, talking about renovation projects and grass and stone and pillars when people are worried about costs.

5:41At the end of a campaign, and when you get to this part of the campaign, we've made over 250 TV ads for 30 congressional races and Senate races. Persuasion's done. We're not persuading anybody right now. But what this turns into, and it's good for folks to know why he's doing this, is that there's one path for Republicans to win. I don't mean that it's not going to work. It could work. It's a strategy. You need to get a lot of people that turned out. And I give Donald Trump credit for it. He got to turn out, who had never voted before in 24. He needs those folks to show up in a lot of Senate states.

6:09And he gets up and he does the rallies and he does the things that make them feel good. He may talk about somebody's ass, make somebody laugh, but he's trying to get folks to get involved to do it. Whether it works or not, we'll find out tomorrow. But that's his strategy. Yeah, but that wasn't today. The number of rallies was impressive. I mean, that was a lot of rallies. Donald Trump is the best closing argument for Democrats. If he wants to go out there tomorrow morning, come on CNN. I mean, call into the morning shows. I mean, talk about policy. You know, the problem is that voters will tell you that over the last two years, black, white, Hispanic, Democrat, Republican from Pennsylvania, South Carolina, their lives haven't gotten any better.

6:43And they hold Republicans responsible. They're going to pay that price tomorrow. Does this mean that voters love Democrats? Absolutely not. And if Democrats believe that to be the message, then we've taken the wrong message from this. But Donald Trump is an amazing closing argument for the Democratic Party and the imagery that he has. I mean, it's it's it's this aloofness, like standing in front of a reflecting pool or spending nine hundred million dollars on a ballroom while people are trying to make ends meet while farmers in Iowa. Right. Can't afford fertilizer. I mean, the disconnect between the White House.

7:16It's similar to the same talking points my Republican friend said when we were having debates about crime and immigration under Joe Biden. Now we're talking about the aloofness of Donald Trump when it comes to affordability.

7:28Abby Phillip: I think he's just to use one word that I always mispronounce. He's indefatigable. Indefatigable. See what I mean? I told you I was going to screw it up. I think he earned West Point. I think he earned begrudging respect in 2016, 2020 and even 2024. for being a machine as an energizer bunny, but you've got to put him in the right setting. You wanted to say something, Holly. Yeah, I mean, you made the point that this is the best closing argument for Democrats. I mean, just to give you a sense of how good it is for Democrats that he's doing this, some Democratic candidates have actually put the renovations in their ads, and now he's out there talking about the renovations the last day.

8:04I mean, this is what Democrats literally put in their ads because of that let-them-eat-cake-Marie-Anne-Twinette kind of vibe to it. two-thirds of American voters in a Washington Post poll thought negatively about the renovation. So, I mean, as you said, this is exactly where Democrats want to land right now. Can we just point out one thing about Donald Trump? To his credit, 2016, 2020, 2024, every year he's been on the ballot, he's overperformed. Donald Trump's also non-transferable. Republicans need to figure that out. He's underperformed when he's now on the ballot, no matter how somebody tries to act like him.

8:38You cannot coalesce a MAGA base if you are not Donald Trump. No, because no one else is going into the bodega in the Bronx or the black barbershop in North Philly. Nobody can do it. But to your point, Bakari, what I think he could have done is point out, as you correctly said, what do you think Hakeem Jeffries is going to go over to Tehran and end this war because it's Hakeem? Do you think nobody's voting for Democrats? They're voting against Trump. And if I was Trump, I would have highlighted, tell me three things the Democrats have said. Sure, they want affordability. They're going to make health care.

9:08But how are they going to do it? What's H.R. 1 going to be? That's what I'd ask. Tell me the three steps.

9:12Abby Phillip: We're going to get to that, actually, in a couple of minutes time. Let me ask this question. In the 2024 cycle, it was all about seven states. It's all about seven states again, only one with an overlap, Michigan. In the presidential cycle, Trump cleared the board. He took them all. Does it seem like tomorrow those contested Senate races are all going to fall in the same direction? Does an independent in Michigan, when all is said and done, have the same sensibilities as an independent in Texas? You're shaking your head. No, because I think the candidate quality matters. Right. So you've got a governor running in Iowa who's in Sands, who's an incredible candidate.

9:48So I think you're going to get Sands voters and you're going to actually Hinson voters. I think you're going to get Abbott voters and Tallarico voters. So I think I have some cognitive.

9:57Abby Phillip: I ask because if you believe in it, put it up on the screen. The predictive markets are saying exactly what I just articulated, that they're all going to go in the same direction, all seven. Anybody else think that they all go the same way? It's two different electorates. It may go that way, but it's because if the same electorate would show up, it'd be a much different map. We're working off of the whole different. When I go out and do these ads and I did these ads two years ago, I was talking to a different group of folks. A lot of us talk to folks who didn't get talked to. There are Trump voters that are new.

10:25This year, there's a lot of new voters showing up who aren't getting talked to. Where do they go? But it's a different electorate. About 35 percent of the American people who showed up two years ago don't come back. But also, I don't know. The overlap. That's not a real. I reject your premise. I mean, I don't think we had. We didn't have.

10:42Abby Phillip: I mean, we had we know we had seven. We had seven swing states in the last presidential. There are seven Senate races that are occupying most of the attention. And the predictive markets today. Well, I mean, I said that the same way. Which part of my premise don't you agree with? Because I think they're more than seven. And the way that you can prove that is not only are they different for the audience, because there was no way in hell in 2024 we were talking about Kansas, right? Now, we weren't talking about Iowa or Mississippi. Michigan was the only one I said that. Correct. But my point is also that you have Donald Trump, who's the president of the United States, going to South Carolina two weeks before an election's over, right?

11:15You have black turnout that is surging in South Carolina. Not saying we're going to win it, but we have a puncher's chance, right? And the reason being is the formula is quite simple to win throughout the South, which is why Texas is such an intriguing race. Because if you have a formidable Democratic candidate that's well-funded, you have a poor, piss poor Republican, as in Darlene Graham or as in Kim Paxton, and then you have a third party that has a heartbeat, like a libertarian or a write-in candidate, then you have this opportunity. And so I think the map is expanding. I mean, I've been looking at Mississippi numbers, Louisiana numbers, not saying we will win.

11:48But the fact is, Democrats around the country are energized. So I reject the premise of seven.

11:53Abby Phillip: Holly, my premise is that all politics are no longer local. All politics today are national. There are no local media markets and local oracles that people rely on. And unfortunately, there's outsized influence, I'll say it, in the cable world and among the sort of, you know, high profile pundits and prognosticators and podcasters. Your thought? Yeah, I mean, look, let's talk about Pennsylvania, where a few of us here tonight are from. Candidate quality does matter. Brian Fitzpatrick is a very strong congressman. He survived a number of tough electoral cycles. He's facing probably the toughest opponent that he's ever had before, a man named Bob Harvey.

12:32And still Democrats tell me he's he is the one that they are least sure of in Pennsylvania. Right. Because he does have that local appeal. He does have those relationships. It's not all national. So I disagree with you a little bit. I think that some candidates can rise above the national fray. There aren't many. Brian Fitzpatrick.

12:52Abby Phillip: We'll say this. I'm like number one independent. I think I'm interested to watch Mike Lawler, Jared Moskowitz and Brian. Those are the three that have their own brand nationally, independent of the president, independent of their party. Jared's a Democrat in Broward County and then the other two Republicans. So so we'll see. Lauren, I don't I don't miss Peggy Noonan's column. Oh, yes, I know. I like her, too. Peggy Noonan's column. This is what I hope for is the way she began. It won't be close election. He did not skip it. He don't skip it. I took it the other way, too. I was like, I don't miss that.

13:25Abby Phillip: Peggy Noonan, let it be a clear and obvious rebuke, a rejection, a rebellion, a rout. And here's the key paragraph that I want you to respond to. She said, the new Republican Party, the one that will have a chance at being born, will keep the good of MAGA, man is not only an economic animal but has a soul, the base isn't full of fools who know nothing of policy, and the good of the old establishment, professionalism, integrity, and understanding of the economic facts that fueled America's 20th century greatness. Party intellectuals are at least trying to return meaning to Pat Moynihan's wry 46-year-old observation.

14:01Abby Phillip: Of a sudden, the GOP has become a party of ideas. Is it possible that there's a wipeout tomorrow and the GOP is reconstituted as Peggy Noonan has forecast? No, I love her. No, there's not. I love her. But the key term she's worried about in that article, she uses the term stasis. She's worried about stasis. That's what she thinks we're in right now. Well, that's exactly what's going to happen if Democrats win even both chambers tomorrow night. If they get the Senate, if they get the House, you still have a Republican president. Things are going to be even more dysfunctional and more gridlocked.

14:34and there's going to be more bomb throwing and people are going to be on bad behavior, chopping each other's heads off. It is going to be ugly with Trump in the White House and a Democratic-controlled House and Senate. It's going to be even worse than right now. Is this good or bad? Is this bad or good? She says it's bad. But actually, there's a very unpopular argument to be made that Washington, in its gridlock, that's how the founders intended it, and you've got to hash things out. But I think we're going to see a lot of dysfunction. And I think a lot of people across America, a lot of Republicans across America would recoil at her idea that somehow the Republican Party of old was the good old days, right?

15:11She's assuming like the Bush.

15:12Abby Phillip: You didn't like the Reagan and Bush ages? No, I like the, look, I like limited government, small government. I'm not sure that the Bush years are something that any of the Bush years, I like 41. I don't know why I can't, why can't it be 94? Big deficits, foreign wars as well, so. It can be 1994 all over again. When I was 10 years old, wasn't that the contract with America? I mean, didn't Newt Gingrich get along with it? in one seat. Absolutely. All right. It can happen. Got to move on. Next, as Democrats call Haley Stevens a traitor for backing the Michigan Republican, is it possible she actually helped Abdul El-Sayed?

15:43Abby Phillip: Plus, if Democrats win back power, Donald Trump says to call him Mr. Vito. We'll discuss as the polls open just hours from now.

15:56Hey, I'm Anderson Cooper. On my podcast, All There Is, we explore grief and loss in all its complexities. My guest is Lil Jon. He's a rapper, DJ, and producer known for hits like Get Low and Turn Down for What. In February 2026, his 27-year-old son Nathan went missing near Nathan's home in Georgia. Three days later, his body was found in a pond nearby. Lil Jon has a memoir that just came out called I Only Shout So You Can Hear Me.

16:25Abby Phillip: It takes time to heal. And I kept myself busy that I didn't let myself mourn. I needed to laugh again. I needed to be silly and interact with people and feel other people's energy and make people happy too. We have to share so other people can see that they can get through it too. Talking grief, building community. That's what the podcast is all about. This is all there is. Listen and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Dr. Sanjay Gupta, host of the Chasing Life podcast. You may have noticed gambling doesn't require a casino anymore. You can just open up your phone. It's designed to keep us coming back or maybe never even leaving in the first place.

17:09We're going to talk to Dr. Timothy Fong, co-director of UCLA's Gambling Studies program. You're going to learn what your brain is really chasing when you place a bet. And also importantly, how to keep the game from playing you. Gambling addiction, gambling disorder is the hidden addiction. You can't smell it. You can't taste it. You can't see it. You can't have a urine drug test. Who are we talking about here, Professor? Who's the most likely demographic to be affected by this? Literally any single human on Earth. Listen to Chasing Life, streaming now wherever you get your podcasts.

17:48Abby Phillip: Tonight on the eve of Election Day, are Michigan voters listening to Democrat Haley Stevens, or will her decision to betray her party and flip her endorsement to the state GOP Senate nominee backfire? On Sunday, Congresswoman Stevens shocked the political world by pulling her support from Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and endorsing Mike Rogers, a man she's previously called a, quote, rubber stamp for Donald Trump's, quote, dangerous agenda. Stevens reportedly told allies as late as Saturday night that she wasn't switching sides. and in a now viral interview with Anderson Cooper, she seemed to struggle to articulate her reasoning for the shocking move.

18:23Abby Phillip: Listen. Anderson, this is a broader point about what's going on in our party. It's actually not. It's really just a question of why you changed your mind. No, we were just recognizing, look, I haven't cast my vote yet. Anderson, my mind is made up. I'm lock solid. I'm an independent woman. I made my decision. You wanted to be at a public event with him up until some point, I guess, yesterday. And it's just an interesting change. And I think a lot of people are curious to try to understand it.

19:03Was that a question, Anderson? No, I wanted to see if you wanted to fill in the silence, but you don't.

19:09Abby Phillip: Stephen's colleagues are calling that interview a disaster and furious House Democrats are said to be discussing kicking her out of the party. A spokesperson for the El-Sayed campaign said Sunday was his biggest fundraising day to date. Today, Cook Political Report shifted the race from toss-up to lean Democrat. It says the move is unrelated to the spat. In real time, as this is all going down yesterday on Sunday, here's what I said via X. I can more easily envision a Michigan voter offended by Haley Stevens' late endorsement and Donald Trump's embrace of her than someone motivated by her tepid embrace of Mike Rogers.

19:46Abby Phillip: My argument, the net impact was to help El Syed. Anybody disagree with me? Go ahead. Why? I disagree with you. I think this is huge for Mike Rogers. If you believe the polling was really inaccurate in the primary, which it was, she barely lost. You know, all the stuff about the motives, you know, sour grapes, not sour grapes, that's hard for people to understand. What they understand is she endorsed Mike Rogers and she has given those voters that supported her permission to move to a Republican side. And if even a fraction of them, small, small numbers move to that side, that's a big impact on what I think is a much closer race than what the polls indicate.

20:27The reason why that doesn't work, and most times I would agree with your analysis. It would be, but it's not. And let me explain why. Because the reason - Why are Democrats freaking out if it's not a good deal? Because she was a liar. But let me back up to the reason your analysis was wrong. Because the The reason that Haley Stevens got so close to Abdul El-Sayed was because of black voters, black voters, particularly in the city of Detroit. See, Abdul El-Sayed, his problem was that he won in a lot of these college educated white communities throughout Michigan. He did not win the urban centers that were overwhelmingly majority black.

20:58Now, this is where the rubber meets the road. if Haley Stevens and Mike Rogers think that they can go to Detroit and simply sit in a black church and think that black voters are all of a sudden going to have a permission structure to vote for Mike Rogers, then I don't, I mean, I can sell them a bridge in Brooklyn right now. I think the reaction to this has been appropriate, though, by Democratic elites. I mean, first of all, she's getting absolutely lost. First of all, no, the political culture is crass. It's beyond the pale. No one should threaten anybody. No one should be outside of her house.

21:30That's not we're talking about the politics of it. That's my point. The politics because she lied. So I thought it seemed explainable to you. She is a liar. It's not. No, she is a liar. You cannot tell somebody on. You know what? You've been telling Republicans for years. And I think it's actually very apt criticism. Now is the moment to stand up against Trump. When he does something beyond the pale, you say it. You say it when it's the hardest time. It's one thing to say. It's one thing to give the bird to Abdul. It's another thing to jump the Rubicon and support Mike Rogers. If you really believe it.

21:59Two vastly different ideals. Go ahead, David. So a couple things. Betray, I think, is a hard. Your party and the media largely lionized Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger. Oh, my gosh. Look how brave they are for speaking their mind. How brave. You guys praised them. You built altars to them, shrines, invited them everywhere. She speaks her mind. She's something wrong with her. She's a little cuckoo, right? She's off her rocker. So shame on you for doing that, number one. Number two, if you don't think seven out of 740 ,000 people that voted for her, that some of those folks aren't saying I'm with her.

22:37Right there. By the way, she's not the only one. There's an African-American state senator, female. She's she's publicly out on X and been on Fox and I'm voting for Mike Rogers. There's a former African-American congressman from Detroit. I'm voting for Mike Rogers.

22:51Abby Phillip: I'm willing to regard this as a vote of conscience. OK, you know, JFK said, hang on, sometimes a party asks too much. I'm willing to give her credit for that. My simple premise was that the reaction, that car video when she kind of endorsed my, it looked like a hostage video. She didn't say anything about him. She didn't say anything about him other than his name. And when I watched it, I immediately said the blowback is going to cause people to gravitate more toward L.S.A. So both things, I just want to say this, both things can be true. I'll give her credit for being a vote of conscience as opposed to being supportive of party.

23:31Abby Phillip: I like that. But I think that the way in which it was delivered, net impact helps him. And then to Bakari's point, if Abdul El-Syad was doing so well with African-American voters, which we know he's not. I literally said that. I did not say that. But he still sucks his win with African-Americans. This is the problem. This is why the argument, this is where people have flat political arguments and it drives me nuts. The New York Times-Siena poll literally just came out and said Abdul is winning 93 to 4 African-Americans, and not a single black voter who responded in the city of Detroit voted for Mike Rogers.

24:03The problem with that, though, is it's not about the percentage whereby he wins. It's how many voters come out. And this, why I disagree with you, may have a chilling effect because a lot of people see this circus and are like, politics sucks. We told you this. We stay home. Nothing's going to change.

24:19Abby Phillip: OK, or they may view El-Sayed as a victim in the way in which this all. It could cut that way as well. Let me ask the hard question. Bill McGurn in The Wall Street Journal. Put this up on the screen, please. I'm just going to read the tail end of it. There we go. The rift goes well beyond Michigan and raises a big question for the Democratic Party. Is it still possible to be a pro-Israel Democrat? You're shaking your head, Holly. You want a piece of that? I mean, we'll learn that in 2028, I think. Right. I mean, we know people are already signaling that Israel is going to be a huge issue in the 2028 presidential Democratic primary.

24:54And a lot of people, a lot of voters, a lot of activists are asking for the Democrats to really come out hard against Israel. And I think that's that's really going to be a test. Can you be pro-Israel and have a home in the Democratic Party? You have to find a middle ground. And let me tell you something about all these marginal races. You talk about seven states and Bakari and me can argue if it's 10 or 12 states. And there are about 50 congressional races. And I have done not just a little bit of polling, but a lot of polling because I'm not paid to make Democrats look good. I'm paid to win elections and I'm damn good at it.

25:23So I need to know what the voters think. And when we ask voters, why are you voting? None of them bring up the Israel or Palestine issue. I've got my views. I'm sure they do. But when we're asking people why they're voting, this ain't the reason they're voting. I know it's an issue. I'm not saying that it's not an issue. I'm just telling you, when we go talk to voters who we think are persuadable, that means you probably didn't vote in a Republican primary or a Democratic primary. Let's use very elementary filters there. They're like, I can't feed my family this week, and I feel desperate, and that's why they're voting.

25:51Abby Phillip: Same question to you. I want you to weigh in on this. I honestly think this is one of al-Sayed's weaknesses because his central foreign policy plank was we spend too much money on Israel. He went on the campaign stump with that message. He made it about this issue. He's getting asked very reasonable questions about those views. And so I think I totally agree with the truck, but he brought that on himself. I mean, I think this is a first of all, I literally the question is making my head explode because the answer to the question is, yes, you can fundamentally believe Israel has a right to exist.

26:23You can also say that you do not like Bibi Netanyahu and think that he's instigating a war to preserve his own political career. You can also look at American politics right now and simply say that two of the front runners to be president of the United States who are Democrats are Josh Shapiro and John Ossoff. Last time I checked, they're Jewish. Right. And so you can be you can literally say you can say, like, I am somebody who's sitting before you today. I'm black. I'm from South Carolina. I believe Israel has a right to has a right to exist. Like that is OK to say to ask this question is simply like, when was the last time you beat your wife?

26:57Like it's a very it's a very indefensible type of question. Bakari, if you if you you that is a very nuanced view. If you go on campus, let's go to commercial college campus after college campus across the United States. That is not the view held by most voters who are under the age of 35. That's true. I can tell you that firsthand. And that's the case with progressive Jewish students I talk to, too. They're very anti-Israel.

27:22Abby Phillip: Gallup has documented that for the first time in the last 26 years, as they've been polling about sympathies for Israel or for Palestinians for the first time, those lines change. We've never seen that drop. And more sympathy now exists for the Palestinians. Totally true. No, I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that organizations who are around this issue have allowed Israel to become a political football, right? And we started to see that around 2015 and 2016. It went from being a very bipartisan issue to becoming a political football. And you also saw this rift, and you also saw Bibi Netanyahu do things that were inexcusable in Gaza, which people had to see with their own eyes.

28:02What I described in a general is not what's going to be the happens in a primary. And Holly made the biggest point. The Republican and the Democratic primary, when it's just primary voters, much different deal.

28:10Abby Phillip: OK, next, the president already giving himself another title if the Democrats sweep the midterms. He says he'll become Mr. Vito. So what will Democrats be able to do? We'll debate.

28:36Abby Phillip: Expectations are high for Democrats who are hoping to make historic gains tomorrow, but what can the party actually do if they win back power? Democrats have promised a new focus on affordability, citing goals like increasing the minimum wage, passing paid family leave, ending the war in Iran, holding a vote on Medicare for all and taxing billionaires. Oversight also on the agenda with Democrats floating possible investigations into the president, his administration or his family. It's impossible to know who will win the races and how it all shake out. But Trump has a warning if Democrats ultimately retake control of Congress.

29:12I think we're going to do great. But if we didn't win, I veto everything. I'll be vetoing, vetoing. Would you still be able to do what you do, work with Democrats, even if they do? Well, if that happens, I guess I'll become Mr. Vito. I'm not going to let him run. And then at some point, we'll probably make deals. In 1972, Bill McKay won a seat in the United States Senate.

29:36Abby Phillip: Anybody get the reference? Oh, my God. Okay. Robert Redford, the candidate. And what does he say at the end of the movie? What do we do now? What are they going to be able to do? I don't know. And unilaterally, they can do lots of investigations. I happen to think that's what they're going to come up with first. And we just had a huge debate on this panel the other night. Actually, Democrats have been saying how corrupt the administration is. If they don't lead with investigation, that looks kind of bad. There's probably more agreement on investigating Trump than there is on Medicare for all, which Hillary Clinton disagreed with.

30:11Barack Obama disagreed with. Most people think it's not an option to completely eliminate private health insurance. So you're going to have some debates about that. But everyone hates Pete Hegseth. So I would say probably that's the first order of business. When I talk to voters, there's two things that come up nonstop. And I would beg my Democratic Party in the House to do this is that you've said, what are the two things you want the most? They'd say, I need to make more money. And I think they would say shit, but they'd say things cost too much. So if you do something about these two things, well, I still think you could investigate something.

30:44You could do them at the same time. But here's the kicker, is that there's going to be a presidential election in 28, and we talked about this primary a while ago. Republicans will want to, some of them, participate in this because they need to do some good things or they'll be just cast aside. Because Donald Trump gets the blame because he's the president. And it really is bad for them moving into a presidential year if you don't get anything done.

31:04Abby Phillip: OK, the best way to deal with affordability is to end the war in Iran and bring down gas prices and diesel prices. Nothing else would impact affordability like that. But if during the lame duck session, Republicans with control of the houses pass the funding necessary for another year of Iran, I don't even know if Democrats can do anything about that. Michael, also, you need two parties to agree to a peace in Iran. And I don't see the IRGC or the theocratic regime in Tehran suddenly wanting to sing kumbaya and hold hands just because we have a speaker, Jeffries. He's from New York. He may be great, but he's not going to get peace with somebody who's been shouting death to our country for 50 years.

31:47The second thing is the president's not going to veto anything because you can need 60 votes. I'm a creature of the Senate. You need 60 votes to pass it. We've had Republican control. Republicans can't do it. Democrats surely, I guarantee you're not going to do it because there's a wide range of divergent opinions in both the House and Senate. And so getting things done is very difficult.

32:08Abby Phillip: Okay, is it possible that he corrals New York buddies, Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, in the White House and they do make things happen? But to Bacari's point, or to Chuck's point, there's going to be an election coming up in 28. And there are going to be people who are going to say, I'm not going along with that. I want to stake my point in the ground. I want to cut the deficit. I want to do things. Trump doesn't care. He's a lame duck. He's going back to Florida to golf and to play with kids. Has the bar been set too high by Democrats? Have they created unrealistic expectations for their constituencies?

32:41No, I don't think people are voting tomorrow with expectations of Democrats. But I also think they haven't answered the question, which has been a part of my biggest peeve with leadership. Like they have not answered the question of what will you do if we give you the reins of power, which is a weird place to be. right now, because I've always said that, you know, one, we need to build a strategy to embolden the South electorally, starting the day after election on Wednesday, November 4th, right? I think we have to also begin to govern November 4th with things that you can actually, like, have some accountability for.

33:14But I do think that you can have things like investigations in the peak hexath, investigations until the president's children. I do think you can do those things while passing pieces of legislation around war powers. But this is also a kicker. We do know that there are two justices who probably won't be there that much longer and who are looking for a way out. And if Democrats do what they need to do tomorrow, which is a lot of people's problem with Haley Stevens, not understanding what was at stake, and you're able to block an appointment of the next Supreme Court justice, these next two years will be a victory for Democrats.

33:47Abby Phillip: It's the biggest prize on the table tomorrow. And it's not just we all tend to focus on the Supreme Court justices and that nominee. It's the federal bench. The appellate court is where most of the law gets made. I mean, as a lawyer, I can tell you that Donald Trump, if Democrats do not win the Senate tomorrow, Donald Trump has the opportunity to be the most consequential president in the history of this country because he will reshape the Supreme Court for generations to come and the judiciary on down. I don't think people fathom that. I mean, the most consequential things in my lifetime were replacing Thurgood Marshall with Clarence Thomas, replacing Harriet Myers with Alito.

34:28And now you're at this point now where in 2016, Donald Trump got three Supreme Court justices.

34:32Abby Phillip: And they don't have a chance to have two more. And Holly, that federal bench, you know, if you're not 40-ish, you're too old because they recognize the value of lifetime appointments. Yeah, that's right. Thought from you? I mean, I would just add, you know, Hakeem Jeffries and his allies, They have actually laid out some of their priorities. They've said that they want to end the war in Iran if they gain control in the House. They want to roll back the tariffs. They want to roll back some of the Obamacare cuts and the Medicaid cuts. The problem is that's Trump's agenda right there. And he has the veto power, like he said.

35:04So they are not going to have that much power to do that much. And voters are angry. They want their prices to come to agree. They can't end the war. And tariffs are done by executive order, not by legislator.

35:16Abby Phillip: We got to move on because my favorite conversation is the next block. Next, the midterm results will barely be in tomorrow night before the chatter about the 2028 election will start. What are the big questions both parties have to answer? We'll debate that next.

35:42Abby Phillip: On the eve of the midterm elections, both parties eyeing what tomorrow's results could mean as they set their sights ahead to 2028. Among the potential contenders looking to this cycle as an early test is Donald Trump's vice president himself, J.D. Vance, who's been road testing his own brand on the campaign trail, headlining nearly 20 rallies since the GOP midterm convention in September and ending his blitz in his home state of Ohio earlier today. Meanwhile, Democrats are watching for which path their party should take as progressives like Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have bet big on Michigan's Senate race as an argument for their wing's electability.

36:21Abby Phillip: One left-wing strategist told Axios, that would be Hawley, a victory for Abdul El-Sayed would prove progressive populists can win in competitive swing states and have enormous implications for 2028. Holly Otterbein, if it goes the way the prognosticators in the polls of the betting markets, meaning a big night for the Ds, who among the 2028 likelies benefits from that outcome? I think the bigger the wave, the better it is for progressives. There was a really interesting poll in Politico the other day that actually showed that Democratic voters, if it was a bigger wave, they said that they wanted more progressives to run.

36:59If it was a smaller wave, they didn't. They wanted more moderate candidates to run. So I think that if it's a tsunami, that's great for AOC. If Abdul El-Sayed wins in Michigan and progressives are able to argue that one of their own can win in a battleground state, I think that could make AOC more likely to run for president, to be honest with you. That's what people who know her have told me. They're not sure if she's going to even run for president. She's considering Senate, too. So tomorrow could have a huge impact on the 2028. Anybody agree, disagree with Holly? I agree with Holly. And I'm like, I hope so.

37:34I hope we get the most progressive candidate. Bad news for Josh. We get the most progressive candidate they can put up there. You know, I look at what I said. Yeah, no, I think it's bad news for Josh, who's who's a good friend of mine and yours and Holly's. Look, I think candidates, the Democrats are doing incredibly well in states like North Carolina. This this this Kansas seats in play, Rob Sands in Iowa, because they look and sound like moderate people, like most of Americans. Rob Sands out bow hunting for deer. You wouldn't know the guy's a Democrat or Republican. Those are the people who are going to win.

38:07I think that we're skipping a beat here by saying because you can win a competitive state in a general election, there's like a thing called a primary map. Thank you. And AOC coming to South Carolina, that dog won't hunt since we're using hunting as a visual here. The people who actually look good coming out of this election cycle are the people who have been championing 2026 candidates. People like Wes Moore looks good coming out. Then you have someone, if he wins big tomorrow, John Ossoff catapults himself to the top of the picture here. I mean, you have some people who have been putting in the work.

38:43And then, you know, at the end of the day, if Marco Rubio doesn't win, doesn't run for president of the United States, Democrats are and win the White House anyway.

38:50Abby Phillip: Let me ask Lauren, if it's a drubbing, if it's a shellacking, to use President Obama's word for the GOP tomorrow night, what's the impact on J.D. Vance? Well, J.D. Vance needs to start separating himself from the president somehow. He needs to learn the lesson of Kamala Harris and start talking about the conservative intellectual movement and how his views have developed throughout his life. He needs to start doing that now. I think the biggest for Democrats is they're going to overlearn from these maybe very narrow winds in states like Michigan and Maine with extreme candidates that will not do well when tested nationwide.

39:26Abby Phillip: So the Harris example that you cite, let me remind everybody of what went down on The View. Roll it. Yep. Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years? There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of, and I've been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact. I realize I'm getting way ahead of tomorrow, but here's the problem. It's really hard, but he can do it. The problem is, if J.D. Vance were on The View, and if he were asked that question, and if he offered any type of criticism of Trump while he's still in the White House, he's going to run the risk of losing that support.

40:06While Trump is breathing a breath. Right. If he utters anything, he's got to say it was the perfect presidency, but I would do nothing wrong. And Trump's endorsement is the most important factor in the Republican primary. Donald Trump will reign. He will stand like the colossus at Rhodes until his death. You are making my point that Vance is totally backed into a corner. 100%. We need to remember, I ran a presidential campaign in 2020, and I've run campaigns going back to 04 with Dick Capart. I'm not as old as David Irvin, but I'm pretty damn old. And to Bakari's point, you've got to win a primary before you win a general.

40:37And as a guy who ran Bernie Sanders' campaign, I can tell you a lot about my battle scars from South Carolina. It ain't pretty. I can also say that there's other states in play there as well. But the electorate, this is what we need to remember, is that the primary electorate in the Republican side will yearn for MAGA. On the left side, on the Democratic side, who is going to control that primary process? In South Carolina, it's obviously a lot of African-American voters. But in other places, like Nevada, where we were at before, it's a lot of Latino voters. So they voted for Bernie Sanders. They voted for Bernie Sanders.

41:06And then Virginia, where you have a lot of those white college educated voters. Absolutely. Who are going to. And government workers. And government workers. But they also are not necessarily tried and true progressives. And so the early primary states are going to shake out. And see, the thing about Michigan, which is so fascinating, and Democrats, this is going to be the— Our heads are going to just be bumping because now that Haley Stevens has done this, if Mike Rogers— I mean, excuse me, if Mike Rogers were to win tomorrow, then people are going to blame it on Haley Stevens. They're not going to blame it on progressivism.

41:38Yes, exactly. Right? And so it's going to be this really weird battle that Democrats are going to have to figure out. I think we need to figure out where we're going first before we figure out what car we're going to drive. Yeah, and they might narrowly lose with some of these really strong candidates in red-leaning states that might go around by no fault of the very high-quality Democrats that are winning statewide, who are moderate.

41:57Abby Phillip: And something we haven't had for a couple of cycles, no incumbents. So all this action is going to play itself out on both sides of the aisle, all those debates, all those events. Starts on Wednesday. Tune in. Tune in. Tune in. Tune in. Starts on Wednesday. Tune in. Tune in. Tune in. We'll come back in just a moment and react to your feedback from CNN.com slash Abby.

42:31Abby Phillip: Time now for viewer feedback from CNN.com slash Abby. Not Smirconish again. He's all about Trump. Any chance he gets, he praises him. What did I say? I said I walked through Lafayette Square. The benches were new. The statues looked cool and everything was clean. And then I said, and then I said, he should never have given that speech today at the reflecting pool. You started the show and ended the show praising him. Don't you know that? Did you send this to me? You've got to know that by now, Michael. You don't get any points for appealing to everyone. They're all going to hate you. No room for it.

43:04That's how it happens. There's like no room for nuance.

43:07Abby Phillip: Chuck, a gentleman doesn't wear a hat indoors. What is the deal with the hat? Well, CNN pays me to wear the hat. And for you, I can come to your conference and wear the hat for you as well. For a small fee and go to Solidarity Strategy. Okay, so that's the brand. I've wore this hat for a long time. Now, this felt hat I wear because my head gets cold, because I don't know if y 'all know when you're bald-headed. Your hat gets cold now. Of course I know. And in the summertime, I can show y 'all some pictures of me going back to when I was five years old. But I do like to wear it inside. Let's get serious now.

43:35Abby Phillip: Okay. What is up with David Urban's eyes? Is he wearing contacts that make them more blue? I must say, I did know. I did know. He wrote that. That's my wife. Thank you. Thank you, Kelly. What's going on there? I just have blue eyes. Sorry. A bonding fan. Look at him. No, he's blushing. He's blushing. Tell me that young man's name. It's okay. I'll take fans. There we go. Republicans apparently didn't get the message to make this election about Trump since their ads don't mention him at all. Truth in that, right? Yeah, that's a good observation. Huh? Yeah. I made three kind of ads this year. One about cost, one about corruption, or about ICE overreach, but Trump was in all of them.

44:15Abby Phillip: Stop pretending. If Haley Stevens' endorsement was principled, she would have done it weeks ago. That's part of my point, the way in which this was ham-fisted in its delivery and really did not say anything about Mike Rogers. It would have meant more if you could put it on TV and broadcast it out to people. I mean, as a political strategist, that's how you use that. But you should also be allowed to change your mind as a woman. I mean, God forbid someone. Or as a man. We don't even have to. Well, they called her a used condom. They said she's being controlled by her husband. I mean, it was really, really ugly stuff from the Democrats.

44:47Right. Awful. Very gender-based. I mean, personal stuff, though, right? Getting uninvited to things, like not getting a text back from AOC, that sort of thing seemed to upset her. So it was personal, I think. I hope she takes some time off.

45:02Abby Phillip: Okay. I've said what I wanted to say about that. If Democrats achieve the most positive outcome of the elections, will it break the Trump spell on Republicans? No. I mean, some Republicans, sure. There'll be a great swath of Republicans that swear off the guy and, you know, and Bakari will say, well, they're brave. They're great. Right. The left will cheer them as great lions. But the MAGA base is there are a lot of ride or die Trumpers. You know this across the state of Pennsylvania. Go to Beaver County. Go to, you know, go to the places that people don't go. I mean, there's 67 counties and you'll see him.

45:37You're going to see something tomorrow that people aren't necessarily paying attention to. We haven't talked about it all show. But Nevada, Wisconsin, maybe Georgia, those gubernatorial races, those are going to send shockwaves throughout state legislatures. That means if you send shockwaves throughout state legislatures, the change doesn't happen from Washington. The change happens from ground up.

45:55Abby Phillip: I still believe that, and Doug Sosnick is the one who put this in my head, so I want a hat tip to him that Donald Trump is more symptom than he has cause, and that the factors that gave rise to his election in 2016 are still going to be with us. Well, Michael, they come full circle. The Bernie voters and the Trump voters are too far. The Venn diagram is pretty big. The horseshoe theory, Trump and Bernie. Got to run. Everybody, thank you for being here. Before we go, catch me every weekday morning, 9 a.m. Eastern Time on Sirius XM's POTUS channel, Saturdays, 9 a.m. Eastern Time here on CNN. We thank you for watching Newsnight.

46:29Abby Phillip: Laura Coates Live starts right now. I'm Adi Cornish. I'm Ari Shapiro, and it's Engagement Party. It is Engagement Party. And we get to talk about what we're obsessed with, what we're engaged with, what we need to process with a friend. Her name is Amy O'Dell. She is a fashion writer, blogger. But the thing is, she's a journalist who's written about the sacred cows of fashion. And yes, I mean, Gwyneth Paltrow and Anna Wintour. She has done biographies of both. And she is also the sort of rare fashion writer who, at this point, kind of outside the system. And so the question that we're going to try to tackle is...

47:02Is fashion terrible now? Well, no, I mean, I would phrase it as how do you develop a personal style in the age of AI slop? You know, on social media, like, creators have to try a whole bunch of different things and see what catches, and then they make it over and over and over again. The same thing happens with clothing. So they're sort of seeding the market, seeding the internet with all of these different ideas. And then they can see what sells and then they can just make them really fast. Follow Engagement Party. Wherever you get your podcasts.