Can the Greens survive Burnham?

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0:36Hello, welcome to Coffeehouse Shots. I'm James Heal and I'm reporting today from the Green Party conference in Brighton. I'm joined by Luke Trill, who's the executive director of More in Common, and Noah Hoffman in London, Spectator's political correspondent. Now, Luke, first question, entering this conference, how are the Greens doing? They've had a hell of a year, amazing success in Gorset and Denton, but since then the shine seems to have come off slightly. Yeah, I think that's a perfect description of it. If you go back to the spring, that victory in Gorton and Denton, you know, in some polls, it looked like they were challenging Labour to be the main party of the left of British politics.

1:09Big success in the local elections in Labour strongholds. And yet, since then, things have taken a turn downwards for the Greens. both their poll ratings, which were, you know, approaching the high teens in some polls, now in single figures again, in lots of them. And Zach Polanski's personal ratings in particular have really tumbled in recent months. What do we attribute that to? So I think it's a combination of things, some within their control, some not. I think for Polanski personally, and you can see this on his approval chart, The moment when things shifted was when he retweeted that criticism of the police on the Golders Green attack.

1:51And then the police commissioner responded, you know, quite unusually, actually, but very firmly that. I mean, you see it on the graphs. And that was the moment when lots of voters who kind of saw the Greens as, I don't mean this in a negative way, actually. I mean, it's quite positive, but it's a sort of nice progressive force for something different. And a lot of them went, oh, this isn't what we thought we were getting. And I think that in turn caused people to look at other policies that the Greens have and go, oh, maybe this isn't what I thought it was. It's interesting, for instance, their policy on leaving NATO is unpopular, even with our most progressive segment of the electorate.

2:27So that's the sort of self-inflicted bit. But on the other hand, the big driver of the Green vote that Polanski capitalised on was disillusioned progressives. People who felt that Keir Starmer wasn't living up to that change promise after 14 years of the Tories. Welcome in Andy Burnham. And you're in a very different place, right? He's actually doing lots of what, you know, progressives wanted. And if you look at the Burnham bans, it is disproportionately driven by left-wing voters coming home rather than winning back Labour to reform switches. or there's been some, if you look at the chart, compared to spring, only half as many voters are moving from Labour to the Greens.

3:11Wow. And Noah, tell us about the tensions in the Greens coalitions. You've been writing a lot about this. So within the Green Party, I'm not sure if factions is so much the right word as opposed to broader groupings. The groups are less defined in the Greens. But if we are going to generalise, you do have, to begin with, your old school lefty hippie environmentalists people who really genuinely care about the climate they care about climate change they care about preserving some of the beautiful nature that we have here in this country keeping our rivers clean and sort of within so there's there's like the hippie version of people who care about that there's also sort of like people you would expect to be posh Tories even but just with a very very deep love and appreciation for nature so they're a little bit different to perhaps the hippies but um you know you've got broadly speaking those who really really value the environment and want to protect it then you have the ultra progressives So very woke, left wing, very pro-trans.

4:22They hate the Supreme Court judgment on what defines a woman, that being biology. They're socially very, very to the left, far more so than Labour. they really struggle to find a common ground with the perhaps on social values the sort of traditional working class Labour voters who are perhaps more socially conservative. Then you have the exodus of the Corbynites so those who love Jeremy Corbyn they've been Labour voters for a while because they wedded to sort of the socialist campaign group faction within Labour they absolutely loved Corbyn and all he stood for. They think the whole anti-Semitism crisis within the Labour party was a witch hunt, that Corbyn was the victim of nefarious forces who claimed that this, you know, how dare this man who's a lifelong anti-racist be accused of anti-Semitism?

5:24They can't fathom it. They, of course, liked all the left-wing policies and sort of socialist rhetoric that came with Corbynism once he was toppled and they had kissed Stama. They flocked over to the Greens and they were appalled by sort of instances such as Peace Mandelson scandal, everything that sort of New Labour represented they saw within Stama, they were horrified by. Then we have the socially conservative Muslim and Islamist faction and these are people whose entire politics are based on Palestine. The big question sort of going forward is how do you marry all of these completely contrasting groups together?

6:09Now Luke, I think that that speech reflected two things, one of which is the primary focus on Holborn and St Pancras, the four words that Polanski couldn't say because of course there's Ofcom broadcasting rules around by-elections which they seem very keen to stick to all the broadcasters, but the offer I think tied into the point that those voters are going back to Labour, it wasn't it. You know, there's people in urban areas who might be suffering from high rent prices. And those are the ones that Polanski's trying to pitch to. And that's what the speech almost entirely was about today, wasn't it?

6:37Yeah, absolutely. He wants to try and shore up or re-engage, I guess, those progressives who feel like the social contract isn't working for them, rents too high, student loans, which She mentioned a too high. Not enough is being done to tackle climate change there. And I think, you know, it would be foolish to assume that, you know, it's time to write the Greens obituary because, you know, those drivers are still there. Andy Burnham is in the middle of a bounce at the moment. I do think his speech probably made the Greens job even harder. But, you know, he's got a decision on the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil fields coming up.

7:18You know, if he allows more drilling, that might push progressive back. He's got a budget coming up at the end of October when voters we speak to, particularly on the left, want quite bold action. Is there the money for that? So, you know, there is still an opportunity for the Greens to capitalise on left-wing discontent. But in Burnham, they just face a much more formidable opponent. And to be fair, an opponent they can claim some credit for being there. You know, I keep saying, like Farage in the 2010s, he wasn't elected to Parliament, but his influence on politics, and particularly the Tory party, was more significant than I think any other politician.

7:57Ditto the Greens. Gorton and Denton started the end of Starmerism. You know, I think it's arguably more consequential than Makerfield in that regard. I agree. I think also, I'd say, it was very interesting how Polanski very much almost, you know, accepted that argument in his speech. The line that keeps coming back to me is, vote Green, watch Labour move. Now, you are inherently in that conceding you are the junior party as part of a kind of broader centre-left coalition in this. My question, I suppose, I wonder and thought, Luke, is that in doing so, maybe he could have played it a bit differently and tried to sort of set up a series of tests, as you say, to kind of inevitably, when Andy Burnham fails to meet those tests, on sort of solving all these issues, claim vindication in six months' time.

8:38But the problem is that Polanski has gone all in on Holborn and St Pancras and therefore isn't thinking long term beyond next week. Yeah, I think you've hit the nail on the head. I think the tests approach would have been a much more sensible way to build support for the long term for the Greens. And I think the problem with, you know, if you look at voter psychology, the problem with vote for us to pressure the other side is people like voting for winners. Right. That's just true. Strong horse theory is a thing. And by relegating yourself to that position, you reinforce what remains. In fact, in our latest data, one of the Greens' biggest weaknesses, leave aside particular policies, a feeling that they can't win.

9:17And I wondered also, I mean, I have to say, being in that hall, it was a fairly low-wattage speech. I didn't find it particularly rousing. I mean, apart from the reference to Palestine Action, which got everyone up chanting free, free Palestine in terms of that crowd, I wonder, is there a sense that Andy Byrne's speech has gone down really well with progressive voters, not just those in the hall? And as such, Zach Polanski couldn't really find that form today. Yeah, I mean, look, whatever you think of Andy Burnham's speech, it was one of those speeches which will be remembered, right? And it cut through and already people speaking to focus groups have noticed it and liked a lot of what they heard, although there are some risks maybe we'll come on to on a future episode if you have him back.

9:57But Polanski wasn't going to be able to match that, right? And I think, you know, it is an unfortunate position that kind of almost, as you said, lots of what they would have wanted they're getting, or at least their voters would have got. And him being stuck campaigning in a by-election, actually, just as we saw with Farage and Clacton. It's very hard to carry a national message at the same time. I completely agree. And I also think that this is the issue in terms of, you know, brands that shoot up in the short to medium term and short term parties as well, which is that are they used to scaling up?

10:28And actually constantly, I've been on some of the fringes today, listening to people saying those issues in scaling up always make it harder for a party. As you go from a short, sharp shock, as it were, to a more sustainable force. And the question is, are there signs of the Greens being able to do that yet? Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, are they a victim of their own success? I mean, you remember actually, you know, if you think about reform and its predecessor, the Brexit party, it took a long time for them to get going. And of course, Farage also has lots of the scars of picking candidates who cause the party trouble.

10:59You know, the Greens rise was in double time, right? It was so quick. They didn't have that time to sort of adapt and exercise, to really work through their policy platform. And I do think, not that, you know, it's for me to comment on whether membership democracy and political parties is a good thing or not, but it clearly presents some of its own challenges as well. So other party leaders are fully in control of their party. You know, Polanski, I'm sure, would rather not have this motion on Zionism as racism being discussed because of the message that it sends to potential voters, who, again, it's another reason for them to go, well, I don't agree with that and step back.

11:37Would it be fair to liken the point about the Golds-Grinner Act to maybe the Corbyn moment in 2018 on the Skripal poisonings? Do you remember this when all of that went to Russia and that really killed him in the eyes of Middle England? and previously the Tories thought, oh, it's going to be the IRA stuff, they're saying something, it wasn't. And much like I think a lot of people in the right-wing press thought that it would be the Jewish or anti-Semitism issue, that hasn't struck through as much as I think that Golders-Green particular element of it. I think that's absolutely the case. There are things that you are not seen to do, you shouldn't do in the public's eyes.

12:10One of them has been seen to side with Russia over an attack on British soil. The other is criticising the police, dealing with a stabbing like that. I think it really set him back. And it's been difficult for him to recover in the public side since then. Because similar to Corbyn, what it did then is other things which haven't quite cut through as much, or people slightly discounted, like the hypnosis stuff, like the council tax on the boat stuff, like other stuff, they then become a bigger issue once you've had one overarching thing that the public don't like. if you know what I mean. Stuff starts to stick, as it did to Corbyn, in a way it didn't as much in the 2017 election.

12:47Quite. And I think that that may be one of the reasons why they're struggling. I mean, just the final question, Luke, we've obviously got the big bell election next week. Is there any signs of how it's going to go? Any constituency polling? No, I mean, there hasn't been any public polling. We've run a couple of focus groups there. You know, it is clear, again, you know, had this election been in May, it's going to be a very different dynamic to it. I think Labour currently feel like the favourite, but, you know, we don't know what turnout's going to be like. You know, if Polanski can infuse his young base on a differential turnout, they might still have a chance.

13:20And Noah, do you think now that Polanski, if he doesn't win next week, is going to be under pressure from within? So we are already seeing a lot of really blatant messaging and spin coming from the Green Party, shoring up Sachs Polanski's position ahead of what many are predicting to be a Green loss. I guess really at this stage the question is by how much they lose but Labour is very confident and the Greens are quite confident as well that this one will go to the Labour party that the Greens will lose. Now there is a large contingent within the Green party and specifically there is a contingent of people within the very influential Greens for Palestine group, who I follow very closely, that, and I know this may be hard to believe, they genuinely think that Zach Polanski shouldn't be the party leader because he is not anti-Zionist enough.

14:14I mean, that is despite Zach Polanski alienating himself from the mainstream Jewish community completely by declaring himself to be an anti-Zionist and sort of indicating he's going to support this ridiculous Zionism is racism motion, which ironically, in and of itself, is quite a racist motion in the Green Party, but they still don't think it's enough. I don't know whether that, you know, you can't look into their hearts, but perhaps it could be just the mere fact that he's Jewish, the mere fact that I know, I mean, I know that he has a lot of family, he spends a lot of time in Israel, the Zionists themselves, who knows.

14:49So they could potentially use this opportunity to pounce on his leadership does command support from a lot of people. But if you're talking about the very, very hardcore Palestine lot within the party, they have never supported him. And in the build up to this conference, they have, you know, accused him of being too pro-Israel, which is crazy. So I think it's too early to call whether he will be toppled or not. I can see a world where he carries on for a bit longer now that there is an official global majority greens group within the party and a lot of people within said group and within the greens for palestine group have from day one wanted polanski out and they a lot of them absolutely love the deputy leader mothin ali whose wife wears niqab she only shows her eyes he is a big supporter of zionism is racism and he has even sort of given sort of approval to concerns that the Green Party is too Zionist, that there's a hierarchy of racism within the party with anti-Semitism being at the top.

16:01All of this is going to sound absolutely bonkers to anyone watching from the outside, but this is what's going on. He's got a very, very large contingent of supporters. It's just not clear at this point how large they are versus the rest of the party who are supporting Zak and whether they have a plan to move on him in the aftermath of the election if he loses. So a lot of interesting politics at play there. Thank you, Luke. Thank you, Noah. And thank you for listening to Coffee House Shots.

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