Is Reform right to prioritise ‘British-born’ citizens?

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0:35Hello and welcome to Coffeehouse Shots, the Spectator's daily politics podcast. I'm Oscar Edmondson and I'm joined today by James Heal and Amir Kotecha, former senior diplomat and CEO of the Centre for Government Reform. Now reform have been trying, much like last year, to dominate the summer with a raft of policy announcements. Now they all seem to have one thing in common which is prioritising quote-unquote British people, the latest being a social housing announcement. James, your thoughts firstly on some of the details across welfare, housing, immigration, but also specifically this framing around British people.

1:09Well, it goes to the heart of Reform's political economy, which is about the battle for resources, who gets priority in that. And, you know, I've spoken to Zia Yusuf about this before, we talked about the line between immigrant and native. This is exactly what they're all about. And I think that this announcement shows an understanding of that and appreciation of where reforms coalition is going to be and i think it also speaks to the element of the online right influencing reform social housing has long been something that internet spheres you know and online people or nones they called on twitter have been talking about since 2023 and i think you can maybe see some of that influence in the debate around this they've hired people like sam ashworth hayes who's written for the telegraph a lot about social housing people like carl williams are about to join in the policy team and i think that this bears the stamp of those kind of influences a bit younger slightly different approach it's not just simply about sort of stopping numbers of people coming here but it's also about kind of the second order consequences of migration that's coming here now it's important to note that for instance people like asylum seekers can't claim social housing and i think you've seen that in the labour response they're saying hang on a sec it means that people who work in the nhs who maybe been here a long time but aren't british citizens aren't going to be able to claim but i think reform is fairly relaxed about it i remember once speaking to a senior figure within reform who said we like an argument we like a bust up we like a scrap and i think that that very much is demonstrating this they're happy to cause some headlines and make some noise because they believe it's all about the attention economy.

2:25So I think that this is about getting some headlines. I think it's about reminding the base who they are after a sort of difficult few months in some ways. I'm not necessarily sure it's going to free up huge amounts of social housing, but I think it's about a statement of priorities. It was interesting at that press conference yesterday when Richard Tice talked about having marriage couples rather than single couples. We'll be interested to see how much that kind of plays into a more moralistic argument rather than one about nationality. But overall, I think it's their kind of way of saying, we've got these finite resources, we would allocate them.

2:53So it's not just about spending new money. And I think that the arrival of people like Robert Jenner, a kind of reform has put more of an emphasis on fiscal discipline. And I'll be interested to see when we have the conference a week after next, how they choose to spend this supposed 50 billion he's freed up in the spending cuts he announced last week on welfare. Amir, now you've written about this social housing announcement on Coffeehouse today. And it seems to me you seem to be broadly in agreement with it. You seem to be quite pleased. Yeah, I am. Look, I think James is right that the commentary online, I think, probably has convinced reform, if they needed any convincing, that this really is an injustice in terms of current council house allocation that needs to be remedied.

3:32Accounts have, for example, looked at some of the council house swapping groups online. There are these groups on Facebook and elsewhere, which have been showing people in six, seven bedroom council houses paying as little as£750 a month. And I think it's worth pointing out the maximum subsidy, according to the government is actually meant to be 50 % in council housing. You know, if you're getting a six or seven bedroom house in zone two in London for£750 a month, I don't need to tell you, that's probably a tiny fraction of what it would be on the private market. So I think there's all sorts of problems going on in terms of how social housing is allocated and how the social housing system works.

4:11But I think one of the most egregious injustices is that it's going in many cases to foreign people as opposed to British citizens, which is why a couple of weeks ago reform said that they would send foreigners to the back of the council house queue. And then the other injustice is that lots and lots of people in this social housing are not in work, right, which is why Richard Tice said yesterday that it would be those in work that now get priorities. So, you know, I think it's a good thing. You know, the stock of this stuff is limited. Choices have to be made, difficult choices about who's going to be lucky enough to get it.

4:47So I think it's right to prioritise British people and those in work. I mean, I think there's a few other bits in terms of what reform has said that are more controversial with some, for example, that married couples and those with children will also get priority. But again, I don't really see anything wrong with the state incentivising marriage, for example, in its public policy. Ditto, you know, given how low our fertility rate is in this country, I don't see any problem with the state encouraging procreation in that way, particularly when actually, you know, if you've got children, obviously you're more vulnerable and the consequences of homelessness are more dire.

5:26So look, I think that there's always going to be people finding reasons to gripe. You know, people have said that reform of punishing same-sex couples, for example, or punishing single mothers. But look, I think the stock of this stuff is limited. Difficult choices need to be made. I think they're making the right ones. I think that, you know, talk about difficult choices. They're using this as a kind of clear blue water, trying to set them apart from other parties. Now, some of the stuff I think is pure politicking. I mean, for instance, veterans are able to kind of claim special priority under the existing rules.

5:57And there's something reform re-announced there. But obviously, you'd expect that's a bit motherhood and apple pie in some ways for them. But it comes at a time when the government is also setting out its plans. and ministers have announced where more than 70 ,000 of their social and affordable homes are going to be built. But I think it's interesting because it talks about social housing as a way which shows how Burnham's priorities have shifted on coming into office. So earlier this year, he was talking about all of the 10-year,£39 billion affordable housing programme going on social housing.

6:20Now it's actually been sort of watered down and it's going to be only 60 % for social rent rather than all of it. But it comes at a time, of course, when we've had a huge number of people around the country. We've long had a housing crisis. You've seen many more people living on their own so they need to demand as families sort of split up more housing is necessary for them ultimately it's a battle for resources and the labourer critique will be much more social housing the tories post thatcher has been selling off council houses but i think once again it does show that reform are going to be trying to set the weather on this and i was quite surprised by how i felt the conservatives didn't really have much to say other than saying that the working hadn't been done on it yeah well we'll come back to that because i didn't want to ask you a question on that amir um but we should also point out that they're having some quite strong reactions from Labour to this reform announcement, particularly from a Labour peer who you retweeted, James.

7:07Yes, he said it was the first step on the road to Auschwitz. First step on the road to Auschwitz. Yeah, I don't think that's the party line, but he wrote it on Blue Sky and no one picked it up until I tweeted about it. Pointing this out, we'll see if that remains the government line on it. But yeah, I mean, I think one of the things that Farage has been very good at over the years and his parties is inflaming opinion and getting headlines. And I think that this will cut through. And I suspect when we see polls trackings like Luke Trills, More In Common War actually hits on the agenda, this may well be one of them.

7:33Now, Amir, you say in your piece on Coffeehouse that introducing this notion of British people and prioritising them is establishing a new sort of dividing line on the right. And we are seeing that play out, not just in terms of parties of the right, but also lots of commentators who you would place on the Conservative side who are very concerned about announcements such as this creating a sort of second class citizenry and driving a new wedge into British politics. Can you take us through that split? Yeah, I mean, look, reform have spoken about the politics of national preference for a long time.

8:06They're clearly in all of their policy announcements, as with Generic a couple of weeks ago, they are making clear they're going to narrow eligibility to British citizens, right, for a whole swathe of state benefits. The interesting thing here, though, is they're now talking not just about British citizens, but British-born people as getting priority in terms of social housing allocation. So I think that is a new, interesting distinction that they're making. I mean, to James's point, it probably will help put clear blue water between reform and potentially the Tories. But look, let's wait and see whether those references to British-born people getting priority, let's see whether that becomes a recurring feature in reform's emerging policy prospectus.

8:51You know, I think it is interesting. I mean, you know, the ex-editor of The Spectator, obviously Fraser Nelson, was displeased by it and said, actually, this is a dangerous, slippery slope to go down to make distinctions between British citizens. But I think we should probably be honest about the fact that I think that the reason reform, even in this place, and are feeling the need to make these distinctions is because, we should be honest, there is a widespread sense amongst the public that British citizenship has been handed out like confetti, essentially. It's been handed out too easily for many years.

9:28So look, not everyone will like that priority to British born. But I think we're going to have to see and see whether that becomes a recurring theme. And this is why it's so interesting to see what happens with Shabana Hamoud's indefinite leave to remain reforms. And people in reform have spoken to me about their concern that if it doesn't pass, it could get to very tricky waters in terms of, do you then potentially look at removing people's citizenship if you have 1.5 million people extra occurring? And I think this is one of the issues reform need to think about. A lot of their policies are saying, oh, only for British citizens, there's a clear distinction.

10:00But of course, if people are very quickly applying for citizenship, then that gets you, you know, they'll qualify for this stuff under the existing law. Now, do they then propose changing the law or saying you have to have been a British citizen for a certain number of years? So lots of things to think about. And the danger is that they propose a lot of policies. And people who are in this country think, OK, I'll supply for British citizenship. Then what do they do? So interesting what happens with Shibana Mahmood. I'd also just make the point that I think that, you know, when it comes to immigration, the public sometimes fails to distinguish between illegal and legal.

10:28So I think that they would be some surprise maybe at how many people potentially qualify for British citizenship under the current rules around ILR, unless Jorbanamu gets her extensions. Well, Amir, just a final question to you then. I mean, I think it's fair to say from a lot of your writing for The Spectator that a lot of what reform have been announcing over the summer, you have been in broad agreement with. So what have you made of the current sort of turmoil that's happening in the party? Is it overshadowing for you quite a lot of policy announcements? Well, look, I'm personally just quite pleased that they're putting the infighting, hopefully, behind them.

11:01I mean, we've now had Robert Jenner come out with lots of welcome stuff on getting a grip of the benefits bill. And I thought that was good. We've now got their announcements on social housing. So if they can continue to focus on, you know, putting forward a policy prospectus and on less of the infighting. I think that's a really positive thing. And I think hopefully that will be borne out in the polling. So look, I mean, yes, there was a scrap recently between Zier and Tim Montgomery, obviously. You know, I think insofar that they can put those sorts of scraps aside and focus on policy, I think it's a good thing.

11:44Because, of course, reform want to present themselves as a government in waiting, right? They've got their conference coming up at the beginning of September. That would be a great opportunity again for them to put forward more policy. But I do get the impression that there is there's a sort of hunger out there for people to have concrete policy to sort of, you know, to get to engage with. And I think, you know, there's a lot more to say, clearly. I mean, there's lots of areas where they haven't yet put forward detailed policy. I'm hoping they'll continue to do that. But I think particularly in a context where we don't know when the next election will be, and it may be sooner than we previously thought, there is, of course, an added premium, I think, on focusing relentlessly on policy as far as possible.

12:27Well, we'll see. I mean, I was talking to someone from Reform earlier today who made the point that because Reform have changed their campaign structure to prepare for a general election and how they deal with branches and parliamentary selections are obviously ongoing right now. I just wonder if they could come to rue that potentially. If there isn't the election, we all keep talking about the election, but if next May there isn't and we've got 10 ,000 councillors up for election and Reform obviously will be targeting, you know, winning thousands of those. I will be interested to see how that kind of pans out because obviously in some ways it's quite, you know, there's quite a high bar for the 650 candidates you need and of those 350 who are maybe in winnable seats.

13:00But 10 ,000 or so will be inching for reform and obviously in some ways they'll put a policy platform to be ready. But there's also potential for what happens if we don't have the early election. Well, thank you so much, James. Thank you, Amir. And thank you for listening.

13:20Thank you.

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