Labour conference day 1 – what's the mood in the bar?

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0:37Hello and welcome to Coffing House Shots, the Spectator's daily politics podcast. I'm Oscar Edmondson and I'm joined today by James Heal on the first day of Labour conference. I've just arrived. I've situated myself immediately within the Pullman bar, but we want to take a little bit of a temperature, get a sense of what are the big discussion points, what everybody is going to be talking about in this very bar later this evening. James, what do people need to know? Well, I would start by playing my own trumpet, which is that I think the fact you mentioned the bar there, Oscar, says it all. The Pullman Bar, of course, is where all the deals get done, gossip gets exchanged, contacts get made.

1:11And this year, after many years of protestations at the queues to get service, they've now instilled a new outside beer tap stand with 20 different taps to ensure there's less crowd. Beer for all the workers, as one MP texted me and said. But I also think in this there is actually a revealing metaphor, for, which is that they've unveiled a new number 10 North beer, but I'm told it's actually just Carlsberg with a different label on it. And I think that is ultimately the question is, are the Labour Party actually going to be delivering for its voters, for its base, for its membership, or is it really just sort of repackaging the old formula with a new shiny label?

1:43And when we get to Liverpool, we're going to get a really good temperature check of that. We're going to see if Andy Burnham can deliver on all the talk and hype he's given over the past few months or so. And I think that was very much in display on the Laura Koonsberg interview today when he was asked about his vision for social care and he said wait until Tuesday. Well, James Heal there doing God's work, the journalism that all spookated readers will care about, what is on the taps, what's on draft at Labour conference. But let's drill into that Laura Koonsberg interview because there was a lot of interesting stuff on social care.

2:11Let's perhaps hear a little bit of a clip first. So let's start with what you're actually going to do. So it's something that I proposed many years ago, a national care service. you have to have a situation where the care system speaks the same language as the health system. Because at the moment, social care is charged for, provided on a very different basis, and the two just don't connect. James, this sounds like it's going to be a big headline policy, but of course the first question that anybody's going to ask is, how the hell are they going to actually afford this? Well, quite Oscar, and also the timeline for this, because Andy Burnham was very passionate, very emotive, very coherent.

2:50there where he talked about the need for social care. I think we can all buy the need for change. The question is, how do you get there? And he said he would be doing the vision, setting the vision out on Tuesday, but the how will be done by Dame Louise Casey, who you may recall set up the social care project on this, was commissioned by Keir Starmer to look into it, but she was not due to initially report until 2028. That's now going to be 2027. We don't quite yet know. We know that what Andy Burnham was talking about, Laura Koonsberg, was that he wants the same principles as the NHS, so a healthcare system based along the English health system.

3:20That's what they have in Scotland. And Andy Burnham was saying it's not really fair that in Scotland they don't have to worry about the issues that are plaguing people in England. And so that would suggest it's going to be a universal system, free at the point of use, and paid for out of general taxation. Now, the key point that Burnham said was that he couldn't breach the manifesto of 2024. He thought that'd be unfair. I thought that was interesting. He obviously was elected under a different manifesto, if you will, make a field this year at that election, but every other MP, Labour MP, was elected on that 2024 manifesto.

3:48And he made the point that, you know, you couldn't break that pledge on income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions for employees. So those are the three headline tax pledges. So the question then becomes, if you can't pay for it, and you can't do it on the existing manifesto, how do we get there? And given Andy Burnham this week said that he wanted to knock all the speculation on the head that he wants to make it clear there won't be electional 2029, we now have the next two and a half years with a rather curious sight Oscar, which is this. Andy Burnham keeps talking about important social care areas who he's going to deliver.

4:16And yet he's still saying it's not important enough to do in the next two and a half years. Either you need to break your manifesto commitment or you need to go to the country sooner. But I find it difficult for the Prime Minister to keep talking up this issue for the next two and a half years in every interview while being unable or unwilling to break the manifesto or deal with it out of general taxation. So a really, really difficult thing for him in that interview. The other things I think that struck me was that that was very much the focus of what he was talking to Laura Koonsberg out. The other subjects was a bit more deflection.

4:44Koonsberg did her best. She asked about five times about Heathrow expansion amid reports it's going to be delayed until 2039. Burnham, I think, was a bit implausible in his answers. He said that it was an issue for London. Well, it's not. It requires an act of parliament. And he said he did not want to jump straight into it. But of course, he's been a cabinet minister before under Gordon Brown. This was discussed back in 2009. He must have a view on it. That's just it's going to be kiboshed. And so the question I think a lot of the Labour Party is asking, Oscar, you've set out this vision for the promised land.

5:08You've sold us on how we want the country to be. But how do we get there? And I suppose that is going to be the key thing in the next two and a half years under Burnham's own timeline. That's going to be the question is, how do we get from here in this current sort of morass, if you will, with the Labour Party on 23, 40, 24 percent, with Britain, all the economic indicators flashing red, how do we get to this land of milk and honey that he keeps talking about? Obviously, Labour conferences, they are predisposed to plotting and scheming. where do you think are going to be the fault lines this year?

5:37Is it going to be Gaza, as it has historically, or questions around North Sea drilling, etc.? Well, it's really interesting to talk about the key issues at conference. Theo Bertram, who's a former Gordon Brownsman, ran 500 events at the Fringe through ChatGPT to rank them and see which were the themes that came up most. And this year, the top five themes are housing, AI, energy devolution and NEATS. And I think that often political parties are like dogs and their owners. They grow to look like each other. Clearly, the focus on devolution has sparked a lot of focus of that in terms of the Labour Party's events, just like Andy Byrne's priorities.

6:10And I think it does point to the rise of concern about AI, if that's a good or a bad thing. And obviously, housing is the perennial issue as a sort of second order consequence of the economy. But I think what's interesting as well is who's speaking the most events. It's Richard Bergen on the left. That element of the left will feel a bit grumpy. They always do, perpetually angry. Someone once put it to me as. But also, I think some of the Starmerites. I mean, the irony, of course, being about how Keir Starmer and his cabinet was sacked was that Keir Starmer never really had a band, a faction around him.

6:36But in death, if you will, he might have created one. People like Darren Jones, Peter Kahl, they'll be worth watching to see their interventions. We've already seen both men do big interviews this week. Darren Jones talking about the plots that brought down Keir Starmer, something Andy Burnham is very keen not to talk about. And Peter Kahl has been talking about the fact that Burnham doesn't really have a proper growth agenda. So I think the economy will be a key one. I think Israel-Palestine is another. I also think you've got people like Neil Compass, who's on the mainstream group, formerly the think tank director of Compass.

7:04These guys are giving interviews suggesting maybe they have been sold a bit of a pup when it comes to Burnham. So I think elements of the left, elements of the Starmerite centre. These are the two groups. You're right to say, Oscar, that this is normally a forum for plotting. And certainly last year's was. And I would also make a point, of course, you can never know how things are going to be in 12 months time. 12 months ago, of course, Andy Burnham was storming out of Merseyside, having been apparently vanquished by Keir Starmer in his speech. But of course, 12 months later, he is now the prime minister here.

7:32And I think actually that conference was really important at signalling he was the anti-Starmer candidate. But I think, to be honest, this conference, it doesn't seem like it'll be a particular den of plotting and discriance. I think that actually people are broadly on side for now, giving the benefit of the doubt. And also, Oscar, no matter how much people may dislike the way in which Andy Burnham became prime minister or dislike bits of his agenda or questions or concerns, about the lack of detail, they all know this is the last chance, Saloon. I think that if Andy Burnham does not succeed, I think that a party of the right will take over.

8:02And some of the noise has been made by elements of the Conservatives and, of course, Reform UK very, very much worry, huge swathes of the Labour Party, not just, of course, because they don't want to lose power, but what comes next to the Labour Party? If it is seen that Andy Burnham, the last gasp of centre-left social democracy cannot work, there are people in the Labour Party who think that, just like we've seen with Germany, with De Linca coming on the scene against AFD, we will see an empowered radical left. And actually, there's this horseshoe theory effect. So I think for the Labour Party, everyone will be wishing Andy Burnham well when it comes to this conference, even if I think increasingly there are voices in the city and the country saying, hang on a sec, what is actually going to change?

8:39And is it going to be changed for the better? Well, I must say anecdotally, sitting in the Pullman Bar, it is yet to fill up and reach its usual hive of activity. But there does seem to be a slightly better move than there has been, certainly over the last couple of years of Labour conferences. Thank you so much, James, and thank you for listening. And I would encourage anybody listening who is at Labour conference, we've got loads of events today in the Sodexo Live Lounge for the spectator. At 1.30, you can see Michael Simms doing Reality Check Live with Paul Nowak from the TUC. Michael Gove, our editor, will be talking to Jonathan Hinder, the leader of the Blue Labour movement.

9:11And then later this evening, we have Coffee House Shots Live with James and the rest of the gang, Tim and Noah. So hopefully see some of you there. Thank you.

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