Reform's plan to stop the small boats – the Royal Navy

0:05Hello, welcome to Coffeehouse. I'm James Heale and with Tim Shipmanoff, I'm delighted to be joined by Christian Calgie of the Daily Mail. On today's episode, we're going to be discussing the small boats crisis. Will there be a reform restore pact? And which Labour MPs should we be keeping an eye on? So Christian, tell me, how was the Reform UK press conference this morning? Well, we learned that Nigel Farage clearly feels the need to grab the headlines again. he needs to go somewhat further than he thought he needed to go this time last year when they unveiled their detention and return policy and now they want to involve the Royal Navy and you know clearly this is a headline driven policy announcement the stuff in the press release that we had yesterday the biggest naval operation in the channel since the second world war that's clearly just designed to to get good headlines but the realities and the details behind those headlines are a lot more complicated right whenever someone comes up with a an almost sort of too simple or too good to be true policy you've got to ask why why you wouldn't and essentially at the the core of this policy is a big diplomatic game of chicken with Emmanuel Macron.

1:17And it's, you know, it's reform daring France to intervene militarily to stop our Royal Navy vessels, either offloading illegal migrants in French ports or dumping them on the beach. And those are the questions that we honestly, we would never know the answer to until such a time as we had a reform policy and we tried it. Yeah, I mean, I think that reform putting a lot of the eggs in the basket of, well, it's personal diplomacy. Nigel has a good working relationship with Jordan Bardello, who is probably going to be, if Rennes Nationale will win the French presidency, the prime minister in the next French administration from next May.

1:53But that is an extremely risky because first of all, you're kind of contracting out your policy to another government and another populace and other peoples. And of course, whether they can continue winning in France, very conditional on that. And second of all, it also depends on French incentives in all this. And I can kind of see the argument, which is that, yes, the French want to stop these migrants coming to Britain in order to kind of keep streaming through their country. They want to end things like the Calais jungle. We previously had, you know, there's kind of the wreckage it's doing to local towns on the North Coast.

2:19But equally, the French are never going to care as much about people leaving their country, I would argue, as people arriving here in Britain. And so it does beg the question of sort of, you know, isn't this a massive hostage to fortune? And what is wrong with kind of what we had previously? And the thing that struck me this morning, Christian, is how many people on the right criticising reform saying, hang on a sec, Royal Navy, we've talked about this before, it doesn't work. What actually works is detain and deport. And so I think some people today are interpreting this announcement as almost a step backwards rather than a step forwards.

2:44Yeah, I mean, there are so many questions, these questions about do we actually have the ship capacity? Would we have to spend billions procuring more ships to do this? There's issues over, you know, just the simple things like the height of the ship compared to the height of the dinghies. How do you get them? Zia Youssef was talking about using lethal force if the intelligence services identify terrorists or people smuggling gang leaders on the boats. How does that work cooperationally in the middle of the sea. So there's lots of questions. And I'm a proponent of just get on and do it politics.

3:19Fine. I don't think we've had enough of that mindset in this country for a long time. But that only applies when you're dealing with your own country. And when you're entering into a situation where others are going to get involved, I mean, it's all very well Bardello very well might cooperate. But if for whatever reason that doesn't happen, and less right-wing party are in power, then what does that happen? The other concern I'd raise about this is, you know, France is not going to start shooting at Royal Navy vessels, regardless of what they do. But France can damage us in a lot of other ways.

3:51So much of our trade is reliant on French cooperation. They've got an enormous chokehold and chokepoint coming into Dover. And, you know, if they were to slow that process down, you know, we could start having shortages very quickly. So it's a game of chicken that you really pray you don't have to do. And I get, I mean, Nigel explained this as why now was one of the questions that was asked. And he was saying it spurred on by what we saw in Souta with Spain and Morocco. But again, he said, he admitted it was something that a year ago, I think, with this boat policy, this Royal Navy policy, we might have to look at.

4:30But you're right. I think the detain and deport thing near as much makes very little difference and is a lot less messy and there are a lot fewer questions about it, apart from, I suppose, where do you detain them? And of course, the Conservatives did consider this in 21-22. And I'm not really sure that this is an issue in which reform would necessarily have much of an advantage on the Conservatives. I can kind of buy the Reform UK critique, which is, you know, too many of the Tory parties, their critical mass is too far to the left. Fine. They weren't willing to cancel as a measure at that time.

4:58Fine, but I'm not really sure in terms of the practical stuff we've talked about, literally boats, issues around international waters. I'm not necessarily sure how a farragist reform government would necessarily be best placed to deal with some of that stuff four or five years ago. And it's quite interesting, isn't it? I think last year we had Operation Restoring Justice, that big press conference in Oxfordshire, talking about rolling a series of flights. Today, it was much more about sort of being back in Westminster, talking about Operation Fortress. But I'm not necessarily think this is one of which reform will get the kind of fill up the boost.

5:27and they've really shown much in the way of growth as a party or thinking on this particular issue in a year. I think that's the problem. The problem generally, I'm afraid to say, with reform is fairly often a lot of these announcements come out and they're headline-grabbing, fine, but there are so many details that are to be combed over and often, I'm afraid to say, don't stand up to scrutiny. There was an anecdote I was told about one of their big tax cut policies just came off the back of Nigel meeting a voter in Makerfield and said, well, we should scrap taxes on overtime earnings. And the reason I think Kemi deserves credit is, yes, there's a credibility issue, which I think reform don't have.

6:10But when they're announcing policies, they seem credible and they stand up and they're not torn apart. And the issue is, clearly reform are hiring. You covered this a lot. They're hiring a lot of policy brains. But frankly, I still think they need about 20 Danny Krugers and they've got one. And there aren't that many to share around between the Tories and reform. Yeah, I think that it's interesting when the Conservative response came out today and they're suggesting reform hasn't done the hard work. I mean, I'm slightly more relaxed about this if you want to tackle the small boats issue in that I don't see any reason why, you know, frankly, the reform couldn't take some of the Tory policy thinking on this and pick up and run with it themselves.

6:47But I do think the question is about a signal that sends, doesn't it? Which is, hang on a sec, if this policy is going to run into, you know, collide with reality and dissolve on first contact. What does that say about other policies where you've done less thinking, where it's less central to the political economy? And I think that's going to be the question some people ask. So it's interesting when the Conservatives kind of attack reform from the right, as it were. I think that this is perhaps, you know, something in which reform can certainly evolve. And they've shown they are very willing to almost tear up any rule book when it comes to immigration.

7:16So important is it? But I do wonder about other areas. And I think that at a time when the Conservatives are saying, look, reform are not as serious as they should be, I think that this will give some people pause to thought. And I was striking to see a former member of Reform's policy team on X this morning suggesting that they've torn up their membership of the party over this. And I think that that is a real warning sign. Coming to time, Reformer thinking, OK, how do we reorient the debate? We want to have a five-week rolling campaign. Let's do some big work on this. Yeah, I mean, the other issue is that we've got, OK, yes, Andy Burnham, of course, was on the South Coast yesterday having his own small boats day.

7:51And actually I thought in terms of comm strategy from government, that was quite clever. Reform were not particularly happy that they'd almost been preempted by Burnham, who obviously, if you look at the front pages today, stole a lot of what would have been their thunder on immigration. Now, yes, 2 ,000 migrants have crossed in the two weeks since he's been PM, but he was able to get out there and say, look, the numbers are falling. I've kept Shabana in post. We're working through on these plans. So it's going to take a while, as with everything, with a new prime minister for mud to stick. Now, I personally don't think, I actually think that there probably is a broader opportunity for reform because I don't get the sense Andy Burnham gutturally cares about the small boat crossings.

8:34Obviously, I think Keir Starmer was a failure, but I don't doubt his sincerity on wanting to deal with the issue. Whereas I feel Andy Burnham only cares about it because it came up on the doors in Makerfield. I don't think it's core to his view of what fair immigration should be or necessarily if he's got an overarching view about national security or asylum policy. And obviously he also, his main announcement, Burnham yesterday, was alluding to these more safe and fair routes, which many on the right believe will do nothing to stop small boats. It will just add numbers on. Yeah, as an incentive.

9:06Yes, quite. And so not actually do anything to deter that pull effects. People think, well, hey, there's a good chance I might be given one of these safe and legal routes retrospectively. I do agree about the Burnham issue. I mean, it was, I think, taken as a signal among immigration sceptics, a positive signal that Shibana was kept at the Home Office to kind of finish the job, as it were. And I have been struck that there seems to be very little said about small boats and all this. I would make a point, if you agree, Christian, but I mean, I think that this summer, unlike the last three or four, there seems to have been a real effort by parts of the government to kind of downplay what's happening in terms of small boats.

9:35Yes, the numbers have dropped, but it seems that we're not getting those rolling series of pictures that we had the last few years or so, which kind of adds to that sense of government helplessness. I think there's a degree of savviness in where in which the Home Office comms is handling all of this. Burnham's line currently, which is that we need to do much more, will hold for now. But I've been struck that at a time when public polls suggest that immigration is one of the top two, if not the top issue, we haven't seen more. And it's been quite striking to watch reforms decline and haven't seen actually a boost in kind of anti-immigration parties.

10:03I don't quite know why that is, but I think that there's something that reform are hopefully trying to capitalise on the next few weeks or so. Yeah. And I also wonder about to what extent the lack of focus on small boats over the last few weeks in particular. Obviously, we've had the sideshow of Burnham coming to power and a change of government and all that. So that's enough to keep us in the media fed. But to what extent is Nigel Farage essentially stepping out of the political ring to go and fight this by-election at what should be a really important time in the political calendar for reform?

10:33Reform have done an amazing job over the past few years to capitalise on summer recess in a way no other parties ever have. All the other MPs clear off. And, you know, the last couple of years, we've had a press conference every single week. And yet, unfortunately, because Nigel's refused himself to go and fight this by-election in Clacton, it has felt as if there's a bit of a political black hole there. So, you know, today was clearly not just an announcement responding to the Souter crisis in Morocco, but also Nigel Farage, almost it felt like he was trying to remind people that he's still here.

11:10Well, talking of that, I mean, there's other sort of news that came out of today's press conference, sort of, which is a very different sort of party and political economy, which is Restore. And we've seen overnight Rupert Lowe released a video. That is why today I'm reaching out to put personalities and our past disagreements aside for the good of the country we all so want to succeed. To ask one simple question, how can we restore Britain? What did you make of that video and Faraj's response to that press conference? It's so messy, isn't it? Yeah, who would have thought that these two personalities would not be able to resolve differences amicably?

11:52I thought Nigel's response this morning was genuinely interesting. I wasn't expecting him to admit that he had reached out to Rupert Lowe. Even people fairly senior in reform last night, we saw this tweet from Nigel, which, I mean, I'm not giving away any industry secrets here. I mean, me and other journalists were texting each other trying to just clarify if we were all interpreting it in the same way because it was so cryptic. It was so verbose. Normally his tweets are out for one sentence. They're really short. It was just on and on and on. And there was this thing about broad coalition. Ah, but I'm not throwing my friends under the belt.

12:29So I thought that was very interesting. I mean, obviously we've now already had an instant tweet from Rupert Lowe claiming that Nigel was wrong to say that he'd... He said he'd call him back, but never did. He said he would call him back and never did. I would suggest that Rupert going public with that element of the route does not lend itself to a stable pact going forwards. But it's certainly, I thought it was certainly interesting. I think Nigel Farage will be unable to ignore what has clearly been a slow slide in the polls. They've lost their unbroken track record of however many hundreds of polls it was in a row in the lead since Burnham came to power.

13:10and, you know, whilst it wouldn't have made a difference in Makerfield, Restore wouldn't have made a difference in the Manchester mayoral election, they're still sapping a lot of energy, a lot of activists, a lot of online conversation points from reform, which is so important to their brand. So I see that. I also thought what was slightly interesting was it even appeared to me that Nigel qualified his rejection of a sort of deal with the Tories as well. I mean, yes, he banged on about how they couldn't be trusted on immigration. They'd broken their promises, successive manifestos. But there was still a but at the end of that sentence.

13:49There was a but, you know, that's my position for the moment. You know, I think Nigel thinks about these things fairly well. So you can read into some of these choice phrases. And if it's what we're at, the mail won, we want to unite the right because we're about to have an election. And, you know, if you've got three different parties trying to all out-immigration each other against Andy Burnham. How has that mail campaign gone? Look, the personalities involved are very trying. But the thing is, I was talking to a senior Tory, a very senior Conservative, a few weeks ago, who remembers the, you know, he was in Conservative central office in the run-up to the 2010 election.

14:30And he was saying, you know, the Tories and the Lib Dems were hammering each other. Of course we're not going to go into a coalition. after the election. We'd never stand that, Nick Clegg. We wouldn't work with him. Five minutes after the exit poll drops, the conversation's changed quite rapidly. And of course, reminded the Rose Garden of our Prime Minister, how do you feel when you were once asked your favourite political joke, you replied, Nick Clegg. Come back. Come back. So, you know, the exit poll will drop and then maybe the right will unite after that. I do think that point about Farage is always, he's much cleverer at approaching this question, in my view, than some others in Reformers, who want to destroy the Tories.

15:03A line that kind of works when you're 15 points ahead in the polls, as maybe they were some points last year or 10 points. Not now when it's kind of much more three or four points in it. I think in terms of the Rupert Lowe thing, I mean, there was so much bad blood there. You've got to remember because Rupert Lowe sued Farage over allegations that he supposedly might have been bought off by the Tories in 2019. There was the whole, you know, up and down sort of in 2024 with the devolution speech reform conference, you remember? I mean, yes. Yes, I think he wanted to tear up the devolved assemblies.

15:33Yeah, which did not go down well. I texted Gawain and he said, is that official policy? I went, nope. I could say that, yeah. So, I mean, all this different tension. I mean, I'm not really sure that, but I think it is interesting that in Restore World, there are people who are thinking, oh, hang on a sec, it didn't really go that well in Makerfield. We had people in the party saying we were going to win it and they won, what was it, 7 % of the vote. I mean, Makerfield was clearly, you know, they can try spinning it. It wasn't good for the amount of noise and heat that they had during that by - Yes, activists.

16:01And they benefited hugely, of course, from the media interest, which, you know, given that they got 7%, they were worse than the BNP got in 2010 in that seat. You know, they're not going to have that again in any by-election. So they have to sort of bank what they can. There are people who, you know, senior restore figures, who have said, look, this is clearly not going to work as a political party, but fine maybe we can use it as a pressure group to shore up reform on their policies act as their right flank in the same way that you know reform used to you know nigel used to try doing that with the tories to try and you know make sure they stayed on track so i think maybe something could happen but the personalities here as i think and everyone involved obviously nigel still couldn't resist taking a few swipes at rupert this morning rupert has been out today attacking farage so So, you know, I imagine, well, what time is it?

16:55It's about lunchtime. So I imagine there'll be, you know, more developments on this throughout the day, let alone the week. And finally, just as our third and final topic, we were suggesting, talking earlier about some of the rising stars in the Labour ranks. Is there a couple of MPs you recommend that we should keep an eye on here at Coffeehouse? I should probably not name too many. Kisses death from the mail. Kisses death from me. You know, there are still some wonderful drinkers and gossipers in the Labour Party, not for want of trying by their selection process. And have any of the new appointments in the government took you by surprise or impressed you in terms of the ministerial, maybe the lower levels as well?

17:31I mean, there wasn't that much reshuffling, was there really? I mean, the cabinet stayed much, you know, changed about a bit. I'm still very confused by what's going on in Desnes, given it's even more to the left of Ed Miliband. And yet we're still drilling for Trump, apparently. Look, you know, I remain to be impressed by what Wes does at the MOD. John Healy was still an odd appointment as far as I'm concerned, but we'll see that at the budget. But look, Shibana staying was good news, so you can have that. Thank you. I think very much something my editor and political editor would agree with.

18:03Thank you, Christian, and thank you for watching Coffee House.

18:22Thank you.